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<meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, user-scalable=yes" name="viewport"/>
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<title>10 June, 2023</title>
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<title>Daily-Dose</title><meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" name="viewport"/><link href="styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><link href="../styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><style>*{overflow-x:hidden;}</style><link href="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.css" rel="stylesheet"/><script src="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.js"></script></head>
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<body>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Trump Is Desperately Trying to Define the Narrative About His Federal Indictment</strong> - Days before he appears in court to face seven criminal charges, the former President is trying to rally his base and elected Republicans behind his false claim that the case is “a hoax.” - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/trump-is-desperately-trying-to-define-the-narrative-about-his-federal-indictment">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Supreme Court’s Surprise Defense of the Voting Rights Act</strong> - The Chief Justice appeared impatient with the maximalist demands that partisans on the right are placing on a Court they seem to feel they own. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-supreme-courts-surprise-defense-of-the-voting-rights-act">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Legal Dynamics of Trump’s Second Indictment</strong> - The case, which concerns the former President’s handling of classified documents, raises complicated questions about intent and national security. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-legal-dynamics-of-trumps-second-indictment">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The View from Inside Beatlemania</strong> - In 1964, on the band’s first world tour, Paul McCartney took pictures that have only recently been discovered. What do they show us? - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-weekend-essay/the-view-from-inside-beatlemania">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Trump Indictment Speaks for Itself</strong> - Against the former President’s miasma of lies and disinformation, finally, a damning set of facts. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/the-trump-indictment-speaks-for-itself">link</a></p></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>Labor unions aren’t “booming.” They’re dying.</strong> -
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<figure>
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<img alt="Protestors hold signs reading “STRIKE unfair labor practice”" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1F-zTNxn53zbyHz1BetNn3S0IaQ=/374x0:6347x4480/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72358163/1245190385.0.jpg"/>
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<figcaption>
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Striking academic workers at the University of California, Los Angeles in November 2022. | Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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Unions won’t come back without fundamental changes to bargaining.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ldnsYW">
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Every once in a while, reporters see a few <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/17/briefing/union-drives-college-graduates.html">successful unionization drives</a> in the US, like at <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/12/starbucks-union-busting-nlrb-contract">Starbucks</a> or <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/11/1125205641/amazon-warehouse-union-staten-island">Amazon</a>, and conclude that <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/amazon-starbucks-workers-led-union-resurgence-2022/story?id=95090198">the US is in the midst of a labor union resurgence</a>, that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/27/us-union-boom-starbucks-amazon">unions are “booming,”</a> or that they’re <a href="https://rollcall.com/2023/05/31/young-educated-and-unionized-hill-staffers-at-vanguard-of-white-collar-labor-movement/">“suddenly and rapidly rebounding.”</a>
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7hQlHQ">
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I am, like all non-management Vox staff, a Writers Guild of America, East member, and a former member of Vox’s union bargaining committee, so I empathize with the urge to be optimistic about the future of organized labor, especially at a time when my comrades in the film and TV industries are striking for a better contract. I stand in solidarity with them and hope they get an excellent contract.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fIWmNo">
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But I think it’s even more important to be honest about the situation. Organized labor is not booming, rebounding, or in a resurgence of any kind. Instead, it is in decline, as it has been for many years.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="W5y90k">
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Official data from the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/union2.nr0.htm">Bureau of Labor Statistics</a> starts in 1983. That year, 20.1 percent of all workers were in a union. That’s down to 10.1 percent as of 2022 — the lowest it’s ever been in that time frame. The decline has been basically continuous, with brief interruptions in 2008 and 2020 as non-unionized workers lost jobs faster than those with union protections. While public-sector unionization has fluctuated a bit (it fell from 36.7 percent to 33.1 percent from 1983 to 2022), by far the sharper decline is in the private sector, where rates fell from 16.8 to 6 percent.
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</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
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<img alt="Chart showing the decline of unions from 1983 to 2022" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8NiCdHiIHos8XkTSD4NKUwenBUU=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24712090/cwi2f_the_share_of_americans_in_unions_has_fallen_by_half_since_1983__1_.png"/> <cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/union2.nr0.htm" target="_blank">Bureau of Labor Statistics</a></cite>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="IKdaVZ">
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Planet Money’s Greg Rosalsky put it well in a <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2023/02/28/1159663461/you-may-have-heard-of-the-union-boom-the-numbers-tell-a-different-story">piece earlier this year</a>: “While there was an uptick in labor organizing in 2022, we’re hardly witnessing a rejuvenated movement strong enough to dramatically reverse unions’ long-run decline.”
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</p>
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<h2 id="0o6WYT">
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What’s driving the decline in unions?
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</h2>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="b3PU4j">
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Starting the data at 1983 gives a misleading picture: The decline of unions began well before then.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="HKTaN2">
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Harvard economist Richard B. Freeman has <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w6012/w6012.pdf#page=58">put together data</a> on union membership going back over 100 years. It shows that the share of households with a union member was around 10-11 percent going into the Great Depression. Starting in 1937 (not coincidentally the year the Supreme Court upheld the pro-union National Labor Relations Act passed two years earlier), you see a dramatic rise in membership. The rate went from 13.2 percent in 1936 to 26.6 percent in 1938. The rate peaked at around a third of households, and stayed in that range for decades. But by the mid-1950s, a slight but perceptible decline was already starting, which has continued ever since.
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</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
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<img alt="Chart showing labor decline from 1917 to 1995" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MkriOuwkzHzlJkv_k_MaDZ44U6s=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24712093/Screen_Shot_2023_06_08_at_2.17.02_PM.png"/> <cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w6012" target="_blank">Richard Freeman, 1997</a></cite>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="IexjWs">
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I’ve seen two major <a href="https://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/files/UnionsEA_Web_8.19.pdf">theories for why this happened</a>. The first emphasizes politics: Countries with more left-wing governments have <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2338.2012.00675.x">seen smaller declines in unions</a>. In Canada, for instance, the share of workers in a union has fallen, but the <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2022011/article/00001-eng.htm">fall is less stark</a> than in the US, which <a href="https://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/canada-2012-08.pdf">might be explainable by its more pro-union laws</a>.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="tEgDlE">
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The second emphasizes the fact that union firms tend to expand their workforces less quickly than other firms. That makes sense: Unions raise wages, so union workforces cost more. But over time, this effect means a greater and greater share of the workforce is non-unionized because non-unionized firms are able to grow faster.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3wUN2x">
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In a <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12122-001-1017-8.pdf">landmark 2001 paper</a>, economist Henry Farber and sociologist Bruce Western credited this as a major factor behind union decline in the US. They estimated that unions would have to increase their organizing rate sixfold just to keep the US membership rate constant. To increase unionization, they’d need an even more dramatic and improbable explosion in organizing.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BsCYaU">
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I lean toward the latter theory. It helps explain why you didn’t see a collapse in union rates when hostile governments (like those of Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush) came to power, but instead the same gradual decline as occurred under Democrats.
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</p>
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<h3 id="eaekno">
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Laws, not vibes
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uTC311">
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Whatever explanation you choose, any attempt at union revitalization will require much more than organizing a few Starbucks locations. It will require wholesale change to labor law.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="C658rp">
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The political scientist David Madland’s book <a href="https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501755378/re-union/"><em>Re-Union</em></a> gets into the details well, but the gist is you need to find <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/2/20838782/unions-for-all-seiu-sectoral-bargaining-labor-unions">ways to organize unions across whole sectors,</a> not just workplace by workplace. In many European countries, firms don’t pay a penalty for paying good union wages; union contracts are “extended” to whole sectors. If UPS drivers win a good contract, FedEx would then have to abide by those terms too, even though it doesn’t have a staff union.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wpovIX">
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This would be an ambitious change. The <a href="https://www.vox.com/22319838/house-passes-pro-act-unions">PRO Act</a>, the labor movements’ big priority in Congress (which is currently dead in the water given Republican control of the House), wouldn’t do much to further it; that act would mostly strengthen the existing workplace-based system, which is valuable but insufficient. Some states like <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/8/15/23296481/fast-food-ab257-california-sectoral-labor-unions">California are experimenting with sectoral bargaining</a>, but we’re in very, very early days yet.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ZxFSsR">
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The future of labor, I think, lies much more heavily in legal reform efforts meant to enable that kind of broader bargaining than it does in a few heavily publicized elections at individual companies. It’s not sexy work, but it’s the only thing that could return organized labor to the power it once had in the US.
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</p></li>
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<li><strong>Are you sleepy or just tired?</strong> -
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<figure>
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<img alt="A pink pillow against a blue backdrop. White, airy clouds surround the pillow." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KVBLO__ejnszhkIwNm0-kEv2UdQ=/0x61:6800x5161/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72358088/GettyImages_564949023.0.jpg"/>
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<figcaption>
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Getty Images/Westend61
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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The telltale signs of fatigue — and why it’s different from sleepiness.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="y9qci8">
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The mortal urge for sleep frequently hits at the most inopportune times: on your commute to work, during the post-lunch slump, the exact moment you should depart in order to make it to an exercise class on time. The simple act of getting some shut-eye isn’t necessarily the best remedy for each of these bouts of languor. That’s because each lethargic experience isn’t created equally. In some instances, you may be <a href="https://www.vox.com/even-better/23366918/unconventional-sleep-advice">feeling “sleepy”; in others, you may be “tired.”</a>
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="d4qZLL">
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There are different underlying reasons for both sleepiness and tiredness — and different ways they manifest in the body. It’s important to know the difference between the two “because they’re addressed differently,” says <a href="https://indianasleepcenter.com/physicians/abhinav-singh/">Abhinav Singh</a>, a medical review expert at <a href="https://www.sleepfoundation.org/">SleepFoundation.org</a> and the medical director of the Indiana Sleep Center. “Sleepy and tired are just like hunger and thirst. Can they be close to each other? Sure they can,” he says. “But they are quenched by different things, like hunger with food, thirst with water.” There are ways to address sleepiness and tiredness, experts say, but first you need to know which sensation you’re experiencing.
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</p>
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<h3 id="WmbgXu">
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The difference between sleepy and tired
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nc4YcJ">
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Sleepiness is marked by drowsiness and a strong desire for sleep, says <a href="https://www.drshelbyharris.com/">Shelby Harris</a>, a clinical psychologist who specializes in behavioral sleep medicine. Signs of sleepiness include heavy eyelids, frequent yawning, nodding off, blurred vision, impaired coordination, slowed thinking, and increased irritability, Harris says. Sleepiness is caused by lack of sleep or poor sleep due to insomnia or sleep apnea or even being up all night with a sick toddler.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mNGQrI">
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On the other hand, tiredness or fatigue is “a state of physical or mental exhaustion that typically comes along with a lack of energy,” Harris says. Tiredness can present with a heavy and weary sensation in your body, but you feel cognitively tapped out, too. Mental and emotional stress — say, from a long day at work — can make you tired. So can physical exertion, medical conditions like anemia or diabetes, or recovering from an illness, like the flu, says <a href="https://www.vumc.org/neurology/person/beth-ann-malow-md">Beth Malow</a>, the director of the Vanderbilt Sleep Division at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="NQqPqc">
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The inevitable “cure” for sleepiness is sleep. However, fatigue is usually not abated by sleep. You can be tired from a hard workout but won’t drift off to sleep if you sit down for a few minutes afterward. “I’m just so achy, I’m so tired all over — that’s fatigue,” Malow says. “While sleepiness is more about you’re apt to fall asleep, anytime, anywhere.”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Gn35Ve">
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It is possible to be both sleepy and tired, Singh says. If you’re sleeping only five hours a night and overextending yourself at work and socially, you can end up with an exhausting mix of both sensations. Symptoms include irritability, difficulty focusing, making mistakes at work, and increased hunger. If you find yourself canceling plans to stay in and watch TV to recuperate, only to fall asleep on the couch after a few minutes, that’s a sign you’re both sleepy and tired, Singh says.
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</p>
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<h3 id="jN1F8u">
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How to tell if you’re tired or just sleepy
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="t9pLL6">
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To determine whether you’re tired or sleepy, you have to look at what is causing your desire to crawl into bed. When you wake up in the morning, evaluate how you slept, Singh says: Did you get the advised <a href="https://www.vox.com/even-better/23366918/unconventional-sleep-advice">seven to nine hours of sleep?</a> Were you uninterrupted during that time, or did you toss and turn or periodically wake up? If you share a bed with a partner, they can fill you in on whether you were restless overnight, snored, or slept soundly. Interruptions to your sleep will make you sleepy.
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</p>
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Another way to determine if you’re sleepy is to use the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/emres/longhourstraining/scale.html">Epworth Sleepiness Scale,</a> Malow says, where you can rank your likelihood of nodding off during activities like watching TV or as a passenger in a car. A score of 10 or higher indicates you need to get more sleep or higher-quality sleep.
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</p>
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Homing in on the underlying cause of tiredness is more difficult, since there are many contributors to fatigue, from side effects of medication to a day of back-to-back meetings. “I truly believe that people can feel fatigued from interacting with people all day and you hit this limit,” Malow says. In those situations, you may be tired, but not ready for bed and just want some time alone.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="w77W5X">
|
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|
|
For ongoing bouts of fatigue, you’ll want to check with your doctor who’ll do tests to determine if you have thyroid disease, anemia, hormone imbalances, or infection. “Fatigue is more medical,” Malow says, “and sleepiness is more of a sleep disorder.” If you don’t have a primary care doctor or haven’t been to one in years, check your insurance carrier’s website for a physician in your area that’s accepting patients. If you <a href="https://www.freeclinics.com/">don’t have insurance</a>, <a href="https://nafcclinics.org/">free clinics</a> or <a href="https://findahealthcenter.hrsa.gov/">federally qualified health centers</a> in your area provide medical care for no or low cost.
|
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|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
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<h3 id="Cx61oB">
|
|||
|
|
What to do if you’re feeling sleepy
|
|||
|
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</h3>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vr3SgC">
|
|||
|
|
The most straightforward remedy for sleepiness is, well, to get some sleep. Try to squeeze in a 5- to 10-minute power nap if you can, Malow says. Parents of newborns or kids with irregular sleep patterns won’t be able to prioritize uninterrupted nights of sleep, but try to fit in a nap when time allows.
|
|||
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|
</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="j4fABG">
|
|||
|
|
Many schedules don’t allow for midday snoozes. Harris suggests physical activity, like stretching, light exercises, or a walk outside, to help wake yourself up. If there are factors impacting your sleep — say you wake up frequently throughout the night or snore — you may want to seek out a sleep specialist, Malow says, who can help diagnose any sleep disturbances and treat you for them. You can <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health/sleep/how-to-choose-a-sleep-specialist#finding-a-specialist">find a sleep specialist</a> by asking your primary care doctor for a referral or you can search through your insurance provider’s list of covered physicians online. The American Academy of Sleep Medicine also maintains <a href="https://sleepeducation.org/sleep-center">a directory</a> of sleep specialists and facilities.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="baVLJt">
|
|||
|
|
Check with your insurance carrier to determine how much the appointment will cost, if it’s covered, or if you have to hit your deductible before they’ll provide a copayment. Depending on where you live, whether you have insurance, and if you’re doing a sleep study at home or in a lab, a sleep study <a href="https://www.sleepfoundation.org/sleep-studies/how-much-does-a-sleep-study-cost">can cost anywhere from $150 to $10,000</a>, so make sure to <a href="https://www.vox.com/even-better/23661759/reduce-health-care-costs-medical-bills">ask about prices before</a> booking any appointments or procedures.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="IiMoLh">
|
|||
|
|
What to do if you’re feeling tired
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fxcAMc">
|
|||
|
|
For sporadic bouts of fatigue that aren’t influenced by underlying health issues, Harris suggests taking regular breaks at work, school, or in between tasks, getting <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-sleep-daylight/morning-daylight-exposure-tied-to-a-good-nights-sleep-idUSKCN18E23E">exposure to natural light (especially in the morning)</a>, and staying hydrated. Any way you can lighten your mental load if your energy is zapped will help rejuvenate you. “Sitting down and resting and doing something that minimizes your energy load is really good,” Malow says. “Maybe not interacting with other people for 30 minutes or being able to put your feet up.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="g0uwpV">
|
|||
|
|
Should none of these options ease your fatigue and you suspect a health issue is at play, Singh and Malow recommend seeking the help of a medical professional who can work with you to determine if you need a tweak in your nutrition, level of physical activity, or require medication to correct an imbalance.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FbDAX5">
|
|||
|
|
“Everybody experiences tiredness and fatigue in different ways: Some people become more irritable, crabby, some people become more lethargic, some people become more forgetful,” Singh says. “It’s tough to say that everybody’s going to feel it in this algorithmic way. It’s very non-algorithmic when it comes to causes and treatment.”
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>A guide to understanding the Ukrainian counteroffensive</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="Soldiers on tanks with large guns. " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/AQer775cgi0x0pVub4IQ3fKy7gQ=/0x0:7339x5504/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72358029/1252073559.0.jpg"/>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Members of Ukrainian Armed Forces are seen during their shooting training with heavy weapons at the areas close to the frontline in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine on April 20, 2023. | Muhammed Enes Yildirim/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Cool it with the predictions, for one.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="loFoOj">
|
|||
|
|
“When we start the counteroffensive, everyone will know about it, they will see it,” top Ukrainian security official Oleksiy Danilov<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/07/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-nova-kakhovka-dam-collapse-kherson-oblast-floods-evacuations-flood-flooding-latest-news"> said Wednesday</a>. Danilov was responding to Russian claims that Kyiv had finally — for real, for real — launched <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/4/22/23693259/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-spring">its anticipated counteroffensive</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="dxwuv4">
|
|||
|
|
Russia is not alone in speculating about the significance of recent movements of Ukrainian troops. US officials interpreted an intensification of artillery strikes and ground attacks in eastern Ukraine this week as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/05/world/russia-ukraine-news#the-us-and-russia-say-that-a-major-ukrainian-operation-has-begun">a possible sign of the offensive’s start</a>. On Thursday, Ukrainian troops reportedly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-counteroffensive/">stepped up assaults</a> on the frontlines in the southeast, and those attack units had Western-made weapons, which were expected to be deployed in any Ukrainian operation. On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alluded to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/09/russia-ukraine-war-news-counteroffensive/">“very tough battles” </a>in the eastern Donetsk region.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QqYMqi">
|
|||
|
|
All of which are signs that, yes, <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/4/22/23693259/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-spring">the counteroffensive is finally here</a>. But the is-it-or-is-it-not-officially-happening question about the counteroffensive has, in lots of ways, always been besides the point. Ukraine has closely guarded its operational security (even from its Western partners to a degree), and Kyiv is not going to make any public announcements that could jeopardize its strategy or give away its plans. Or as Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense <a href="https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1665800958662549504?s=20">tweeted </a>Monday: “Shhhhhh.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<div id="yIhIZ6">
|
|||
|
|
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" dir="ltr" lang="en">
|
|||
|
|
“Words are very unnecessary<br/>They can only do harm”<br/><br/>(c) Depeche Mode <a href="https://t.co/0Ul78wSv9q">pic.twitter.com/0Ul78wSv9q</a>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
— Oleksii Reznikov (<span class="citation" data-cites="oleksiireznikov">@oleksiireznikov</span>) <a href="https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1665368742354731045?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 4, 2023</a>
|
|||
|
|
</blockquote></div></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gJ4Hms">
|
|||
|
|
And the counteroffensive exists on a sort of continuum. All the ingredients of a successful counteroffensive have been unfolding over the past weeks. Ukraine has targeted Russian <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/15/storm-shadow-ukraine-missiles-russia/">frontlines with long-range attacks</a> and <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/ukrainian-troops-not-backing-down-despite-russias-claim-of-victory-in-bakhmut">carried out localized attacks in places like Bakhmut</a>. Ukraine has its fingerprints on diversionary tactics, like the cross-border attacks into Belgorod led by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/05/belgorod-russia-ukraine-counteroffensive-militias/">pro-Ukrainian militias</a>. “Ukrainian forces are already shaping the battlefield,” said Robert Murrett, a former naval intelligence officer and professor of practice at Syracuse University.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fEt9XX">
|
|||
|
|
As those tactical operations continue, as more Western tanks and newly NATO-trained Ukrainian troops move to the frontlines, as Ukraine advances toward or challenges <a href="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/COUNTEROFFENSIVE/mopakddwbpa/">Russian defensive lines and fortifications</a>, all of it will help reveal the course of the counteroffensive. But the details are mostly just speculation at this point. And as experts emphasized, both Russia and Ukraine want to manipulate the narrative, and so information warfare is deliberately going to obscure what’s happening on the battlefield.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="w8Q6eZ">
|
|||
|
|
It will likely take more weeks, and maybe months, to fully understand what this counteroffensive might yield. “Everything doesn’t need to happen in a span of a few weeks. It can be a bigger process, and it most likely will also be a bigger process,” said Emil Kastehelmi, an open source intelligence and military analyst.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="s6C9J6">
|
|||
|
|
“Whatever happens at the moment might not determine the whole course of the counteroffensive,” Kastehelmi added.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="g8odYL">
|
|||
|
|
The only thing that’s actually certain is that Russia’s war in Ukraine <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/4/22/23693259/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-spring">is entering a new phase</a>: an all-out effort by Ukraine to liberate Russian-occupied territory and to reshape the course of the war. Ukraine could retake a lot of territory, but the amount likely matters less than how Kyiv alters the strategic picture, seizing key areas that would leave Russia exhausted and in a weaker position than before. Kyiv must prove to its Western backers that it can put resources and advanced equipment to successful use, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2023/6/6/23744349/ukraine-artillery-counteroffensive-united-states-europe">and reaffirm and bolster outside support</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PDPBMw">
|
|||
|
|
Because whatever success looks like in the Ukrainian counteroffensive, it is unlikely to usher in the end of Russia’s war.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="sVdS7r">
|
|||
|
|
Where are we with the counteroffensive right now?
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FI4ijh">
|
|||
|
|
Ukrainian forces liberated the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/9/11/23347304/ukraine-russian-war-kharkiv-liberation">Kharkiv</a> region in late summer 2022, and forced a Russian retreat to the other side of the Dnipro River in <a href="https://www.vox.com/world/2022/11/9/23449707/kherson-russia-retreat-ukraine-war">Kherson</a> last November. (The area was inundated by an <a href="https://www.vox.com/2023/6/6/23750879/ukraine-nova-kakhovka-dam-kherson-russia">exploded dam this week</a>.) Ukraine had momentum going into winter, though the war then entered something of a <a href="https://www.vox.com/world/23552619/ukraine-war-germany-leopard-tanks-zelenskyy-russia-putin">holding pattern</a>: Fighting continued along the frontlines, but Russia also dug into its defensive positions. Russia launched an offensive this winter to try to seize <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2023/04/03/ukraine-war-russian-winter-offensive-falling-short-of-kremlins-goals-rosgvardia-admits#:~:text=%E1%83%A5%E1%83%90%E1%83%A0%E1%83%97%E1%83%A3%E1%83%9A%E1%83%98%D0%B1%D1%8A%D0%BB%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8Srpski-,Ukraine%20war%3A%20Russian%20winter%20offensive%20falling,of%20Kremlin's%20goals%2C%20Rosgvardia%20admits&text=Russian%2C%20Ukrainian%2C%20and%20Western%20sources,administrative%20borders%20by%20March%2031.">Luhansk and Donetsk</a>, but didn’t end up with that much to show for it, except for <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682">some minor territorial gains</a> and, finally, after about nine months, <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/5/22/23732453/bakhmut-ukraine-war-russia-wagner-zelenskyy-counteroffensive">Bakhmut</a>, a mid-size city that isn’t all that strategically important.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="xfBcIR">
|
|||
|
|
Both Ukraine and Russia expended a lot of manpower and firepower in the battle over Bakhmut, a reality that hung over both Kyiv and Moscow as the world began <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/4/22/23693259/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-spring">expecting Ukraine’s counteroffensive</a> this spring. The assumption was that Kyiv would launch such operations after receiving new military equipment and support from Western backers, after replenishing and training new troops, probably <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/countdown-to-counteroffensive-when-will-mud-season-end-in-ukraine/a-65204612">after mud season</a>, and after Russia exhausted itself in its own offensive operations.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4PpyPN">
|
|||
|
|
Those conditions have largely been met.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="NSXQxu">
|
|||
|
|
Counteroffensives, though, are complex, multifaceted operations, and they tend to unfold in phases. At least one of those phases has been happening: the so-called “shaping” or “preparation” phase, as the military wonks might call it. It’s also pretty self-explanatory: Ukraine is trying to create battlefield conditions that will set its forces up for success once it starts the main event.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="b4gvDR">
|
|||
|
|
Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian troops along different parts of the frontlines, including at long ranges. They’re <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/crescendo-of-attacks-target-russian-supply-lines-ahead-of-expected-offensive-5bd48a28">targeting and destroying</a> supply lines. They’re <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/05/looting-reported-in-belgorod-region-amid-shelling-evacuation-a81400">engaged in sabotage</a>, things like the cross-border attacks into Belgorod, and even that weird <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/30/europe/moscow-drone-attack-intl/index.html">drone incident in Moscow</a>, designed to divert Russian attention or resources. Ukraine is using these tactics to probe or soften Russian defenses, said Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and also to “make sure that the Russians are spreading out along the frontline, not concentrating, also perhaps, [to] move away their operational reserves or commit their forces somewhere where the Ukrainians are not probably going to try their main effort.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7arYGs">
|
|||
|
|
No one knows where that main effort (or efforts) is going to be, although experts and observers have some ideas of where Ukraine might try. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-launches-counteroffensive-russia-zaporizhzhia-rcna88332">One of these is around Zaporizhzhia</a>, in the south, where Ukraine might try to push toward the Sea of Azov, allowing Ukraine to slice up Russia’s so-called “land bridge” linking Crimea to the rest of Ukraine, and potentially giving Kyiv a position to strike Crimea directly.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<div id="s1aIul">
|
|||
|
|
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" dir="ltr" lang="en">
|
|||
|
|
NEW: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ukraine?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Ukraine</a> has conducted <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/counteroffensive?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#counteroffensive</a> operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider counteroffensive efforts that have been unfolding since Sunday, June 4.<br/><br/>Latest assessment w/ <a href="https://twitter.com/criticalthreats?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"><span class="citation" data-cites="criticalthreats">@criticalthreats</span></a>: <a href="https://t.co/A1Y19HR1xc">https://t.co/A1Y19HR1xc</a> <a href="https://t.co/K2jwvQmVsb">pic.twitter.com/K2jwvQmVsb</a>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
— ISW (<span class="citation" data-cites="TheStudyofWar">@TheStudyofWar</span>) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1666970725415100419?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 9, 2023</a>
|
|||
|
|
</blockquote>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="8m0DeH">
|
|||
|
|
Fighting has been intensifying near Zaporizhzhia and outward from there, <a href="https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1665510652318822402?s=20">including around Velyka Novosilka</a>, an area between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. But it’s not yet clear if Ukraine will seek to concentrate in specific areas, or attack from multiple fronts. Especially now, spreading out helps — if Ukraine has a breakthrough in one area, Russia might be forced to respond and bring in reinforcements, creating vulnerabilities elsewhere — <em>maybe</em> in the place that Ukraine really wanted to go all along. “I think it also creates just a sensation of ‘we’re being attacked from every every angle,’ and creates a sense of momentum and overwhelming,” said Margarita Konaev, deputy director of analysis and research fellow at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology at Georgetown University.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="cti6NW">
|
|||
|
|
It’s in Ukraine’s interests to kind of be everywhere all at once right now, just as it’s also in <a href="https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/05/seeing-is-believing">Russia’s interests</a> to identify particular spots and claim they’re slowing Ukrainian advances there. The frontline in Ukraine <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/12/ukraine-prepares-to-take-back-territory-from-russia-step-by-step-roman-kostenko">is some 900 miles long</a> — think Chicago to New Orleans, said Murrett. So the PSA still holds: Chill on the geographic speculation.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="TWvVkr">
|
|||
|
|
How will we know if Ukraine is winning? (Spoiler: You won’t.)
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0Cg4yj">
|
|||
|
|
The anticipation around this counteroffensive has, maybe a tiny bit, raised expectations for Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have tried to temper that a bit, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-risk-devastating-setback-1804854">saying this isn’t make-or-break for the war</a>. While that is likely true, the pressure is on Ukraine to retake territory and prove to domestic and international audiences that it can continue to challenge, and even defeat, Russia on the battlefield.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mbGf1Z">
|
|||
|
|
Whether or not Ukraine can achieve those lofty aims is uncertain, but what is clear is that it’s way, way, way too early to make those assessments — probably weeks, maybe months away. Ukraine has some advantages this summer that it did not have last year — like more advanced Western equipment — but it also faces new challenges, like a potentially more prepared Russian military, and potentially more challenging targets.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FXIFUh">
|
|||
|
|
The influence of Western equipment on the battlefield is still an open question. One of the reasons everyone was so hyped this week about the start of the counteroffensive was based <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-counteroffensive/">on reports</a> that Ukrainian troops along the front included specialized units that had advanced Western weapons and newly NATO-trained troops. A Russian military blogger also <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/05/world/russia-ukraine-news#the-us-and-russia-say-that-a-major-ukrainian-operation-has-begun">reported that German-made Leopard tanks</a> were involved in heavy fighting in Donetsk. “Western-made battle tanks on the front — this would be a good sign the counteroffensive is starting,” Kastehelmi said.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4I0f7f">
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|
Quietly, slowly, but over time, all these Western military donations have transformed Kyiv’s forces. “By European standards, Ukraine is a military juggernaut,” Murrett said.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="sASyMr">
|
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|
But exactly how successful Ukraine will be at maneuvering these tools at scale — conducting what the military folks call “combined arms warfare” — is a big question. Ukraine has a lot of different military systems or platforms, including tanks and infantry-fighting vehicles, drones, and artillery systems. They sometimes complement each other, sometimes cancel each other out. “You can think of it as a deadly game of rock, paper, scissors,” Gady said. If done right, you maximize the losses for the enemy (in this case, Russia) and minimize them for Ukraine. It also means Ukraine will use less of everything: less artillery, less tanks, less troops, because everything is working together, rather than relying heavily on just one thing (like artillery), or one thing at a time. And that means Ukraine gets more done, with about the same effort.
|
|||
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kpIGDu">
|
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|
This counteroffensive will test whether Ukrainian forces can pull this off. And Kyiv faces additional logistical and supply challenges. There are different types of tanks and armored fighting vehicles, which all have different specifications, and those need to be supplied and serviced and replaced in real-time, and that needs to be sustained over many weeks and months. “You can have a breakthrough and you can move forward. But if you’re not able to continue to resupply your troops, to bring in fresh troops to the frontlines to, fix your equipment, restore any sort of broken equipment, or equipment lost, then you’re in real trouble,” Konaev said.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="tVT1rF">
|
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|
Ukraine is likely going to lose equipment as it tries to push through Russian defenses. Russia <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-fortifies-600-mile-front-line-with-trenches-mines-reports-2023-5">has built robust fortifications</a> across that massive frontline, stretching from the south, in Kherson, all the way to the north. Some areas are likely spicier than others, but they include trenches, anti-tank bunkers, and they are heavily, heavily mined; Western intelligence officials said earlier this month that Russian minefields are so extensive, breaking through such defenses would be a monumental achievement for any force. Russia also has pretty impressive <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-losing-10000-drones-month-russia-electronic-warfare-rusi-report-2023-5">electronic warfare capabilities</a> along the frontlines, able to jam up drones — Ukraine is losing thousands of drones each month — and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html">the GPS</a> for things like high-mobility artillery rocket systems.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gSzGHJ">
|
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|
If Ukraine gets through these fortifications easily, some experts said that would be a pretty good sign of Ukrainian success and Russian problems. But experts also said that it is not a precise metric: Russia’s first and second frontlines are basically made to be broken — to slow and wear Ukraine down, and to make it very costly for Kyiv, so they suffer losses to equipment and personnel, and that gives time to Russia to bring in reinforcements.
|
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</p>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qEyGeh">
|
|||
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|
Which brings us to the recurring theme of not counting the counteroffensive chickens before they hatch. This is going to be a slog, and a very, very difficult and devastating slog at that.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="V9D1l8">
|
|||
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|
For now, expect a lot more of these probing attacks, as Ukraine pokes at Russian defenses, trying to see what they can exploit, or where they can break through. If they do, here is where you might see Ukrainians send in their mechanized columns — that is, the main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personal carriers — where Ukrainian forces seek to advance as fast as possible and seize as much territory as possible.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="F1tWrK">
|
|||
|
|
But this is going to take time, likely punctuated by small Ukrainian successes, but also stalls and setbacks. Don’t read too much into a town taken here, a town contested there.
|
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</p>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6nVtFy">
|
|||
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|
Even liberating a major place, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/5/17/23037687/mariupol-evacuation-ukraine-russia">like Mariupol</a>, would be an incredible victory, but not all Ukrainian successes will have that kind of narrative power. And the the less high-profile moves might mean more in the long-run. “Just focusing on these dynamics: What is important because it is a symbol and what is important because it’s part of a calculated set of moves, that is going to lead to a real, operationally vital accomplishment,” Konaev said.
|
|||
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</p>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yzgS7V">
|
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|
“They’re not always one of the same by any means,” she added.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="D6VAbV">
|
|||
|
|
Why the counteroffensive matters
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MiZtEF">
|
|||
|
|
Ukraine’s objectives have not changed: to end Russian occupation within the country’s internationally recognized borders, including areas Moscow has controlled since 2014, including Crimea.
|
|||
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eLKfvx">
|
|||
|
|
Ukraine is not going to accomplish all of that with this counteroffensive. But that does not change the stakes for Ukraine’s military and political goals. “Ukrainians need to succeed here,” Kastehelmi said. “They need to show the Western countries that Ukraine actually can achieve its goals, which are to liberate all territories under Russian occupation.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OMi6r9">
|
|||
|
|
Ukraine also needs to prove to its domestic audience that it is defending its people and territories. Right now, Ukrainian morale and support for its efforts are high; Russia has tried, and failed, to erode public support <a href="https://www.vox.com/world/2022/10/11/23398192/ukraine-airstrikes-putin-russia-war">through relentless bombing campaigns</a>, but it, if anything, it has only hardened resolve.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="NwLpfO">
|
|||
|
|
But the West may be the most important audience, and the most complicated. The United States and its allies made big commitments to Ukraine ahead of this counteroffensive. Together, the US and its European allies have spent or pledged billions. There are <a href="https://www.vox.com/world/23552619/ukraine-war-germany-leopard-tanks-zelenskyy-russia-putin">the tanks</a>. The United States also finally agreed to support a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/22/biden-f-16s-ukraine-g7-00098243">coalition to train</a> Ukrainian troops on F-16 fighter jets<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/22/biden-f-16s-ukraine-g7-00098243">,</a> which could eventually allow countries to transfer planes to Kyiv.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LalsAV">
|
|||
|
|
Ukraine has to show that the supplies and support are paying off, and that more is warranted. The US and (especially) Europe don’t have unlimited stockpiles of military equipment, and both Washington and Brussels are using <a href="https://www.vox.com/2023/6/6/23744349/ukraine-artillery-counteroffensive-united-states-europe">political capital to invest in ramp-ups</a> for things like artillery. Voices of skepticism in Western capitals are still the minority, but they could intensify if Ukraine struggles in this counteroffensive, especially as the Republican primary for the US presidential election gets underway, which includes some <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/06/08/we-get-some-specifics-on-ramaswamys-ukraine-plan-00100987">Ukraine-support-skeptic candidates</a>, including <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/politics/ukraine-russia-putin-trump-town-hall/index.html">the frontrunner and former president</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="b0IzND">
|
|||
|
|
Of course, unless Ukraine faces a startling defeat (which seems unlikely), the West is unlikely to start rushing Kyiv to the negotiating table. This is more about the calculus softening or changing over time, but even subtle shifts could be huge for Ukraine, which ultimately is reliant on the West to fight and defend itself.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1mFyYb">
|
|||
|
|
If Ukraine can achieve what many think it wants to achieve, which is to push through the south or southeast to reach the Sea of Azov, cut the Russian front into two, and get close enough to Crimea to show the Russians their position is tenuous — well, that is sort of the dream scenario. It is by no means impossible, but nobody thinks it’s going to be easy.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jduabw">
|
|||
|
|
Beyond that, reclaiming and recapturing territory from Russia — and how quickly it does so — is probably going to be another metric on which Ukraine is judged. In the long run, Ukraine ultimately has to liberate all Russian-occupied territories, but that, too, may not be the best frame for this counteroffensive. “In the short-run, it’s much more important how the Ukrainian Armed Forces are going to emerge out of this offensive relative to how the Russians are going to emerge out of it,” Gady said. “Because this is going to determine the character of future military operations in Ukraine and whether we are going to see another offensive at some point, or who’s going to be faster in terms of reconstituting their combat power.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="voVF5B">
|
|||
|
|
This war is not going to end with these Ukrainian operations, and much of this conflict has been defined by incremental gains and attritional warfare. The Ukrainian counteroffensive might not shift the map all that drastically, but Kyiv does need to emerge stronger, Russia weaker.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wWH5DE">
|
|||
|
|
Russian President Vladimir Putin likely believes he has the advantage, that he can wait out Ukraine and its Western backers. But if Ukraine can batter Russia’s forces, or even leave Russia with less territory than it had at the start of this offensive, it will be hard for Russia to continue to claim it is winning. That likely does not usher in the war’s end, but it will transform this conflict once again.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Review of The Miracle Makers — A hat-tip to Indian, Aussie cricket</strong> - As two great rivals play the World Test Championship final at the Oval, a spotlight on the heroes of the 2020-21 season Down Under</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Long jumper Murali Sreeshankar finishes third in Diamond League</strong> - The Indian long jumper secured third place with a jump of 8.09m in the Paris Diamond League</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>“Pressure always on my shoulders,” Novak Djokovic after reaching 7th French Open final</strong> - Djokovic will race for record 23rd major trophy against Norwegian fourth seed Casper Ruud on June 11</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Morning Digest | International referee says he witnessed WFI chief’s inappropriate behaviour towards female wrestlers; U.S. court unseals Trump indictment in documents probe, and more</strong> - Here’s a select list of stories to read before you start your day</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Alcaraz will learn from French Open anguish, says Djokovic</strong> - Alcaraz was a shadow of the unshakeable, all-action player who began the match, barely able to move as Djokovic breezed through the rest of the set</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>New spider species named after Keralite arachnologist</strong> - Draposa sebastiani named after P.A. Sebastian, who was the pioneer spider taxonomist from the State</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Telangana to train staff of roadside amenities in aiding NH accident victims</strong> - The long task aims at reducing the response time during major accidents on the highways, says the DGP</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Andhra Pradesh: Literature, history are guiding forces for the next generation, says Revenue Minister Dharmana Prasada Rao</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>PM betrayed Manipur, his stoic silence rubbing salt in wounds of people of state: Kharge</strong> - The Congress has accused the BJP of being responsible for the present state of affairs in the northeastern state and has blamed the ruling party and its “divisive politics” for it.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ennum Ezhuthum Mission, T.N. scheme to bridge learning gap, to begin with baseline survey this month for classes 4 and 5</strong> - All government and aided schools are to conduct a baseline survey for students of class 5 from June 21 to June 30 onwards in Tamil, English and Maths; teachers have been given resource material and a handbook as well as training, to help students</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Annecy stabbings suspect held over attempted murders</strong> - Four children and two adults were attacked in a park in France’s Alpine region on Thursday.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia under way</strong> - It’s been talked of for months, now it looks like Ukraine is finally launching its plan to recapture land.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine dam: The friends who escaped Russian occupation in Kherson floods</strong> - Maryna and Valentyna found themselves trapped on the Dnipro River when Russia invaded last year.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>France knife attack: ‘Backpack hero’ praised for facing attacker</strong> - Catholic pilgrim Henri said he simply followed his instincts when confronting the Annecy attacker.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Cryptoqueen: Adviser to missing fugitive disappears</strong> - Frank Schneider, a former spy, faces a maximum of 40 years in prison for his role in a crypto scam.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Here’s a rough estimate of how many people recent SCOTUS rulings might kill</strong> - In addition to deaths, the decisions will lead to significant morbidity. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1946895">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Acer reportedly sent Russia $70M in PC gear after saying it paused business there</strong> - Reuters says Acer used Swiss subsidiary to send Russia “at least” 744 shipments. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1946819">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Researchers discover that ChatGPT prefers repeating 25 jokes over and over</strong> - When tested, “Over 90% of 1,008 generated jokes were the same 25 jokes.” - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1946662">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Musk on path to turn Twitter into the next MySpace or Yahoo, co-founder suggests</strong> - Ev Williams: Generally, “the new thing does not come from the old thing.” - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1946831">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Billion-year-old grease hints at long history of complex cells</strong> - Our ancestors once thrived on cholesterols that are now just reaction intermediates. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1946823">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The shutdown was really bad for everyone in the service industry, but it especially sucked for men…</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Men lost $1 for every $.79 women were losing
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/HelpingHandsUs"> /u/HelpingHandsUs </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/145hl5m/the_shutdown_was_really_bad_for_everyone_in_the/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/145hl5m/the_shutdown_was_really_bad_for_everyone_in_the/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>My wife yells from the kitchen “Do you ever get a shooting pain, like someone’s stabbing a voodoo doll?”</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
I answered “No”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
She asks “How about now?”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Major_Independence82"> /u/Major_Independence82 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/145lfe5/my_wife_yells_from_the_kitchen_do_you_ever_get_a/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/145lfe5/my_wife_yells_from_the_kitchen_do_you_ever_get_a/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>If “tomb” is pronounced “toom”, “womb” is pronounced “woom” then shouldn’t…</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
“bomb” be pronounced “BOOM”.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
I hope that blew your minds.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/HelpingHandsUs"> /u/HelpingHandsUs </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/145e9b4/if_tomb_is_pronounced_toom_womb_is_pronounced/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/145e9b4/if_tomb_is_pronounced_toom_womb_is_pronounced/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>I need to tell my girlfriend that she’s using way too much teeth when she goes down on me, but I don’t want to hurt her feelings.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
How do I soften the blow?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/KairuSmairukon"> /u/KairuSmairukon </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/145h4s4/i_need_to_tell_my_girlfriend_that_shes_using_way/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/145h4s4/i_need_to_tell_my_girlfriend_that_shes_using_way/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Two cannibals are eating a rich kid.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
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One turns to the other and says “does this taste a bit spoiled to you?”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/burnzy71"> /u/burnzy71 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/145my8b/two_cannibals_are_eating_a_rich_kid/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/145my8b/two_cannibals_are_eating_a_rich_kid/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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