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676 lines
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<title>01 January, 2023</title>
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<title>Daily-Dose</title><meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" name="viewport"/><link href="styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><link href="../styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><style>*{overflow-x:hidden;}</style><link href="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.css" rel="stylesheet"/><script src="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.js"></script></head>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Case for Wearing Masks Forever</strong> - A ragtag coalition of public-health activists believe that America’s pandemic restrictions are too lax—and they say they have the science to prove it. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-activism/the-case-for-wearing-masks-forever">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>From Climate Exhortation to Climate Execution</strong> - The Inflation Reduction Act finally offers a chance for widespread change. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/from-climate-exhortation-to-climate-execution">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Kirk Douglas, the Guitarist for the Roots, Revamps the Holiday Classics</strong> - A bona-fide guitar hero puts a fresh spin on some holiday classics. And the former United States Poet Laureate Tracy K. Smith on reading poetry across the political divide. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/the-new-yorker-radio-hour/kirk-douglas-the-guitarist-for-the-roots-revamps-the-holiday-classics">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Water Wranglers of the West Are Struggling to Save the Colorado River</strong> - Farmers, bureaucrats, and water negotiators converged on Caesars Palace, in Las Vegas, to fight over the future of the drought-stricken Southwest. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-southwest/the-water-wranglers-of-the-west-are-struggling-to-save-the-colorado-river">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Devastating New History of the January 6th Insurrection</strong> - The House report describes both a catastrophe and a way forward. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/american-chronicles/the-devastating-new-history-of-the-january-sixth-insurrection">link</a></p></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>What is Pokémon without Ash Ketchum?</strong> -
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<figure>
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<img alt="Ash and Pikachu, holding a trophy." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kZKDitg5uIr7jhFrMz2LqL_94us=/468x0:1908x1080/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71812200/Ash_Ketchum_World_Champion_Screenshot_4.0.jpg"/>
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<figcaption>
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The Pokémon Company
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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The TV series’ beloved protagonist will be ending his 25-year run. The franchise, too, is evolving.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hxAZWA">
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The beloved protagonist of the <em>Pokémon </em>TV series, Ash Ketchum, is finally leaving the show after 25 years of training to be the very best.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FExe7b">
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The news, while nostalgic and bittersweet, isn’t surprising for those who kept up with Ketchum all this time. Ash Ketchum and his adorable partner, Pikachu, have been the cornerstone of the show for more than 1,200 continually airing episodes. The iconic duo have persevered through tough battles, made a conscientious effort to always learn more about each other and the world around them, and brushed off their shoulders after almost comically regular defeat. But this season, the perpetual 10-year-old finally became <a href="https://www.polygon.com/23453121/pokemon-ash-ketchum-wins-ultimate-series">world champion</a> and has been on a bit of a reunion tour, after decades of losing.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5O4SU7">
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“Ash’s greatest traits are his tenacity and his love for those around him,” said <a href="https://www.sarahnatochenny.com/">Sarah Natochenny</a>, who has voiced Ash for the English version of the show for 17 years. “So to watch a character for 25 years be this motivated, this dedicated to achieving his goals without making anybody else feel horrible, that’s such a beautiful lesson, especially for young people growing up who are engaging with the show.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rgQZbF">
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During Ash’s 25-year reign, the Pokémon Company churned out dozens of games; more than 20 movies, including <em>Detective Pikachu</em>, featuring Ryan Reynolds; manga; seemingly limitless toys and card games. These ventures don’t all include Ash, but they do embody the sense of adventure and growth he came to be defined by. While Ash has been reaching his goals, the franchise — by some metrics, the <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/22825263/pokemon-nintendo-cartoon-card-game-longevity">most valuable IP in the world</a> — has been evolving, too.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="NkytUi">
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2022 was a huge year for Pokémon fans. We got two new games, <a href="https://www.polygon.com/22916203/pokemon-legends-arceus-dangerous-mystery"><em>Pokémon Legends: Arceus</em></a><em> </em>and <a href="https://www.polygon.com/pokemon-scarlet-violet-guide/23464426/beginners-guide-tips-levels-gyms-open-world-order"><em>Pokémon Scarlet and Violet</em></a>, that challenged what it meant to exist in the Poké universe. In a typical Pokémon core game, the player picks their starter Pokémon and begins their journey, usually to beat all eight gyms (in a set order) and eventually become the champion of the Pokémon League. Instead, <em>Arceus</em> thrust players into the distant past, when wild Pokémon would have no hesitation to clobber you. You don’t battle gyms — rather, you see a world full of wonder and lore, where Pokémon aren’t necessarily cute friends. While 2019’s <em>Sword and Shield </em>was the first to introduce open-world elements, <em>Scarlet and Violet</em> — which came out in late November — is a cautious evolution of that experimentation. You can battle any gym, giant beast, or Team Star gangster in whichever order — a refreshing spin on the typical Pokémon format.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="16OZoA">
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The new generations have been rather divisive in the Pokémon ultra-fan community, whether it’s because of janky graphics or the ramping up of silly power-up gimmicks, like “Gigantamaxing” or “Terastallizing.” Pokémon isn’t always successful in its endeavors to break the formula, but I would argue that despite their occasionally clunky storylines and performance flaws,<em> Arceus </em>and <em>Scarlet and Violet </em>offer rich worlds to enjoy. It’s fun to see more context in the Pokémon universe, like seeing actual Pokémon’s reactions or witnessing more in-game cultural history.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aV579T">
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“I am such a first gen-er when it comes to Pokémon, so it’s kind of hard for me to enjoy the new generations,” said Noella Williams, an editor and longtime fan of the series (they have a tattoo of the grass-type Pokémon <a href="https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Chikorita_(Pok%C3%A9mon)">Chikorita</a>). Still, their curiosity around <em>Arceus </em>and <em>Scarlet and Violet</em>’s new open-world mechanics won them over. “The beauty of playing a Pokémon game is that it’s never going to go away, but you’re looking forward to how the games will interact with new technology. It’s exciting to see.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kqy3FV">
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The current season of the show, <em>Journeys, </em>marks a departure from the usual format as well. <em> </em>Ash has the freedom of going to any region he’s previously visited as well as new-to-him Galar.<em> </em>As a research fellow — which is funny to think about considering the character’s established penchant for simplicity — he hops on planes and trains to solve whatever Poké phenomenon is happening alongside Goh, his companion for the arc. Ash returns to <em>Diamond and Pearl</em>’s Sinnoh, <em>Sun and Moon</em>’s Alola, <em>Ruby and Sapphire</em>’s Hoenn, and more, to <a href="https://pokemonblog.com/2021/01/29/ash-reunites-with-old-friends-in-classic-episodes-of-pokemon-the-series-now-playing-on-pokemon-tv/">re-battle old friends</a> and make new ones.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bMq1PZ">
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My feeling had always been that <em>Journeys</em>’ location agnosticism stemmed from a strategic storyline set-up for Ash’s departure. Why else would we see characters or locations that haven’t been mentioned in years? To see this year’s games have the same ethos confirmed my suspicions: The Pokémon universe is undergoing a vibe shift, one that will define the franchise for years to come. It could be risky — or it could usher in a new era of fans.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gLhXm8">
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Pokémon has been around longer than I’ve been alive. I don’t know a world that doesn’t include Ash, Pikachu, and some version of the games. I remember having a knock-off tie-dye Pokémon shirt featuring Misty that my dad got me at the Mexican flea market when I was 4. I remember playing the card game illicitly at my very Christian elementary school. I remember going to friends’ houses and watching the show with their older siblings. I wasn’t a mega fan back then — I didn’t have the video games, for instance — but it felt like a constant presence. I think the same holds true for a lot of people my age and slightly older.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WG6iXR">
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“There’s not a time in my life where I cannot remember liking Pokémon being one of my defining characteristics,” said Nicholas Friedman, a Pokémon fan since the ’90s and senior editorial manager for Crunchyroll. “The level of text storytelling that even those very early Pokémon games put on you as a child, it’s intense. I think that combined with the sense of adventure almost certainly led me to want to be a writer one day.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ta4ZZ3">
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Friedman had grown up playing the games, watching the show, and eventually reading the <a href="https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Pok%C3%A9mon_Adventures">manga</a>. I interviewed him days before the news broke out that Ash and Pikachu were leaving the show (again, I had a hunch), and we talked about what it would mean for the franchise to grow up with us.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FqYAxk">
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“I have such a complicated relationship with the Pokémon anime and I think a part of that comes from being an anime fan in general,” Friedman said. “I desperately want Ash to grow up and be happy and have kids and send them out on their adventures. As an adult who’s starting to experience major milestones in my life, I kind of want him to do the same. But there is a reason why kids love Pokémon and I would a thousand times over choose to keep that touchstone geared toward children — to get them interested so that they can become part of this amazing thing that’s done so much for me — than have that story grow up with me and selfishly ask for that.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ycQc5x">
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It’s not the first time fans have had this discussion. When Pokémon GO exploded in 2016 — probably the most <a href="https://www.imore.com/most-significant-apple-gadget-2016-pokemon-go">ubiquitous</a> the franchise had ever been — it was a “wake-up call” for fans who may have “tapped out” of the show, Friedman said. Given how a lot of people aged out of the show’s intended audience demographic, that’s to be expected. But a large part of the show’s problem during that time was that it never felt like the protagonist was progressing in the way the games were.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6LQq1T">
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I tuned back in around the time Ash won the Alola Championship in <em>Sun and Moon. </em>It wasn’t his victory that had re-engaged me, but rather a trip to DC to see my cousins in the fall of 2019. I saw my second cousin, E, for the first time in a while and he insisted on watching the show. My brain couldn’t compute that this was the same Ash Ketchum I knew when I was E’s age. When I returned to New York, I would watch the new episodes during breaks. And when the pandemic came, I decided to rewatch from the very beginning. I’ve now seen every single episode of Pokémon that’s available in the US.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vWywaD">
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The Pokémon world has been growing at such a rate that there’s always something new to enjoy for any type of fan, no matter what age. At the same time, Ash and Pikachu always felt like a given amids change, said Melanie Pineda, a paralegal and Pokémon fan.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1rz01t">
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“I know that Pikachu was their mascot and everything,” Pineda said. “But for me, Ash was the trainer. He was <em>the </em>guy. He was the hero that we were rooting for. Even if he kept unfortunately losing over and over again, he kept going and he kept growing. No matter which region he was in, it was a comfort knowing that whatever next chapter Pokémon was bringing, Ash was going to be there, you know?”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zXouOM">
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Still, it’s about time the show breathed in new life. The <a href="https://www.pokemon.com/us/pokemon-news/a-new-pokemon-animated-series-is-coming-in-2023-and-beyond">next iteration</a> of the TV series will be set in <em>Scarlet and Violet</em>’s Paldea with two new protagonists in 2023. Untethered to Ash and Pikachu, the show will be able to experiment just like this generation of games did. But first, there will be an 11-episode short series to send off Ash and Pikachu airing January in Japan, the Pokémon Company <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_VMGv2kKEI&ab_channel=TheOfficialPok%C3%A9monYouTubechannel">announced</a>.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uu8v2B">
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That said, it’s still hard to say goodbye, especially for folks who grew to love the goofiness of Ash and his dedication to being the best he could be.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ufkYJh">
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“I will probably cry,” Friedman said of the inevitable end of the era. “But I’m so excited for the future of Pokémon, and I’m so glad we got to spend all of this time with Ash and Pikachu.”
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</p></li>
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<li><strong>Will Trump’s tax returns change anything?</strong> -
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<figure>
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<img alt="Former U.S. President Donald Trump Makes An Announcement At His Florida Home" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/39QVjL346bKyEuBRGgRKuzYVZU8=/82x0:2919x2128/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71810840/1441806035.0.jpg"/>
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<figcaption>
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Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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A Q&A with Virginia Canter of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington about the presidential audit.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uXhHyR">
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Former President Donald Trump’s tax returns are now public information, despite his repeated, years-long efforts to keep them private. The House Ways and Means Committee, headed by Richard Neal (D-MA) <a href="https://waysandmeans.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/ways-and-means-committee-votes-release-investigation-irs-s-mandatory">voted to released the returns</a>, which <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/30/trump-tax-returns-congress/">span from 2015 to 2020</a>, Friday after a three-year-long effort to obtain the documents.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="U9al45">
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The documents run thousands of pages and include information about Trump’s personal finances, his many business entities, and the finances of his family members. Though many patterns of questionable accounting and business practices have already been revealed through previous reporting and investigations, the documents do bring additional information to light, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/30/politics/donald-trump-tax-returns-released/index.html">like loans he gave to his children, which could potentially be monetary gifts in disguise</a>, as well as foreign bank accounts and businesses the former president maintained while in office.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1Huoym">
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Though Trump’s finances have gotten him into trouble before, and he’s in the throes of multiple investigations at the moment, the now-public returns may not themselves spell an end to his political career or businesses. Thus far, no serious bombshells have been uncovered in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-committee-set-release-trumps-tax-returns-capping-years-long-battle-2022-12-30/">the nearly 6,000 pages</a> of documents that the Ways and Means Committee released, but they’re now subject to scrutiny by independent experts who may be able to uncover new information about Trump and his financial orbit.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="NGs92t">
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The returns do demonstrate why the presidential audit process is important. That aspect of the American tax code mandates that the president and vice president’s finances should be subject to strict examination each year of their tenure in office. The Ways and Means Committee <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/12/4/23491593/trump-tax-documents-congress">requested the tax returns as part of a presidential audit review</a> — to determine whether the auditing process is sufficient and properly run.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="xpks6O">
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Trump’s financial documents were not subject to the presidential audit until 2019, and the process seems to have been triggered by the Ways and Means Committee’s request for the tax returns. The full audits of Trump’s tax returns were not completed while he was in office, and any documentation like loan agreements or receipts might now be lost or destroyed.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zNYeCL">
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To that end, the House of Representatives last week passed legislation to codify the Internal Revenue Service’s presidential audit process into law, as well as make the tax returns of the president and their spouse public. While the bill won’t pass before a new Congress is sworn in in January, Senate Democrats plan to push a vote on the issue next year, according to <a href="https://rollcall.com/2022/12/22/house-passes-bill-to-make-presidential-tax-returns-public/">CQ Roll Call</a>. However, any legislation seen as an attack on Trump will likely be difficult to pass once Republicans take back the House in January.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7GeQ2c">
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Vox spoke with Virginia Canter, the chief ethics counsel for Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, about the presidential audit process, what we’re learning from Trump’s tax returns, and what we still might not know about his finances. Canter previously served as ethics counsel for the Department of the Treasury, as well as White House Associate Counsel to Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. The conversation below is lightly edited for clarity.
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</p>
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<h4 id="F7Dkt2">
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<strong>Ellen Ioanes</strong>
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nq5XWc">
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I want to start with the presidential audit process. We’re learning that Trump has somehow escaped that regular auditing process. And since there is a clear process outlining how that should go, it’s kind of hard to imagine that was just an oversight or an error on the part of the IRS.
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</p>
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<h4 id="5tCYNf">
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<strong>Virginia Canter</strong>
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="VemAIn">
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No, this is absolutely scripture. It’s not something to be messed with; every president understands that he’s subject to audit, since President [Richard] Nixon, and for good reason. You have to make sure the president himself is in compliance with the tax law, particularly because every US person is affected by taxes.
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</p>
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<h4 id="9hK67i">
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<strong>Ellen Ioanes</strong>
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wn7OMR">
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It’s hard to imagine that that was just some sort of error, like there had to be some sort of interference, I would imagine.
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</p>
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<h4 id="5KjgJi">
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<strong>Virginia Canter</strong>
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vD8WTJ">
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So this is the thing. I’ve worked at Treasury and I worked in two White House Counsel’s offices and I’ll just say that if there wasn’t political interference, and we certainly can’t rule that out, because it’s such an egregious situation, that would be malpractice on the part of the IRS to audit a presidential taxpayer in this fashion.
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</p>
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<h4 id="emTwgq">
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<strong>Ellen Ioanes</strong>
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LFviRx">
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Do you think that the House’s legislation to reform the presidential audit process provides the right kinds of safeguards to ensure that they’re carried out properly in the future?
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</p>
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<h4 id="zdIfqy">
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<strong>Virginia Canter</strong>
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fZLuYU">
|
||
I certainly think it’s historic — for one, it’s legislative. From what I understand, that was something that was definitely missing here. And, if there was political interference, they were probably relying on the fact that it wasn’t a legislative mandate.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h4 id="7ifiKh">
|
||
<strong>Ellen Ioanes</strong>
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RlSxsW">
|
||
Since it’s a mandatory IRS procedure and it’s taken very seriously, what’s the difference between having this be part of the tax code and a mandatory procedure versus congressionally approved legislation?
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h4 id="0qNWf4">
|
||
<strong>Virginia Canter</strong>
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="tnuEuQ">
|
||
It’s just very hard to say that there was any discretion there. But in terms of the resources assigned to it, there was definite discretion, and that seems to have played a big factor in why it wasn’t an effective process. Apparently, there was one examiner assigned to it, there were no experts for what was, without a doubt, an extremely complicated portfolio. But the legislative enactment makes [a presidential audit] much more likely to be successful, and it calls for reports to be made and that we provide for accountability, which was sorely lacking. There was no accountability.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h4 id="rygfGm">
|
||
<strong>Ellen Ioanes</strong>
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2vAjNh">
|
||
You mentioned that this is a very complex portfolio. Overall, how do Trump’s returns differ from other presidents’ like Obama’s or Biden’s, in terms of their complexity with all of these different entities and companies?
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h4 id="KnUKsE">
|
||
<strong>Virginia Canter</strong>
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="xUI6WA">
|
||
You’re talking about 500 companies that comprise the Trump Organization. And you’re talking about really questionable tax deductions. And you’re talking about foreign accounts. I don’t think there’s any president who’s comparable.The most significant thing? Well, there were two things. One is he kept his businesses, right. Every other president has divested his portfolio. The second thing is he had foreign businesses. So that made him much more open to foreign influence. He had foreign clients. There are a lot of factors that contributed to the complexity, and he had these carryover tax deductions — <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-paid-no-income-tax-2020-reported-losses-office-records-show-2022-12-21/">tax losses that resulted in deductions</a>.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h4 id="b5n6Im">
|
||
<strong>Ellen Ioanes</strong>
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vLE5JB">
|
||
We know a lot of those questionable accountings, or at least we know about the patterns from<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes.html?name=styln-trump-tax-returns&region=TOP_BANNER&block=storyline_menu_recirc&action=click&pgtype=Interactive&variant=show&is_new=false"> previous reporting,</a> and other investigations. But what kinds of additional irregularities are experts looking for in these kinds of complex returns? For example, giving loans to his children to avoid a gift tax, and maybe his charitable giving was actually to <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/12/18/18146487/trump-foundation-charity-ny-attorney-general-lawsuit">his own charities</a>, things like that.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h4 id="HBfhZG">
|
||
<strong>Virginia Canter</strong>
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WXqIn2">
|
||
There will be tax experts who will go through this with a fine tooth comb, but clearly he was treating these loans to the children as loans when in fact they may have been gifts, is my understanding. He was also taking tax deductions for properties — allegedly he was putting into conservative easements when the value assigned to them was probably inflated, because they could never be used for the purposes that he ostensibly was taking the deduction for.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nZDDy7">
|
||
There was a question about whether he actually complied with his taxes. And then there were things that we [at CREW] were interested in from the get go. And that is, how successful for example, were his businesses? I mean, this suggests as most of us suspected, he was not a very good businessman, to say the least. And yet he had hundreds of millions of dollars in loans. So if you owe more than you are expected to have income coming in, it raises questions about your vulnerability in terms of blackmail, and things like that. And then also the foreign influence, can you really be committed to carrying out US public interests when you’re doing [business with] and relying on foreign entities for your personal business income? So there are real conflict of interest concerns.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h4 id="HjR3Ac">
|
||
<strong>Ellen Ioanes</strong>
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="T0cCa8">
|
||
So now we know more about his finances, there’s still information that he does not have to disclose or his businesses don’t have to disclose. So what kinds of things might we still not know about the finances? What is he still able to keep secret?
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h4 id="hmBM0J">
|
||
<strong>Virginia Canter</strong>
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GJfCzw">
|
||
We don’t always know who his clients are. Just because we know he did extensive business overseas, and he had these [foreign] accounts, and he said the accounts were closed, when, in fact, they were still open. But even if he closed his foreign accounts, it doesn’t mean foreign money wasn’t coming into his US properties or other properties, like the UK properties.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="z5yh47">
|
||
I will say this: If there was a real audit going on, somebody should be looking at the receipts. And this is no easy task, but that’s something that needed to be done, especially for a president. I think people have to start going through this with a fine tooth comb, there needs to be a real audit. I don’t know what they call this at the IRS, but it wasn’t an audit. It was a shame is what it was.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h4 id="eY52Ta">
|
||
<strong>Ellen Ioanes</strong>
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PRSb7o">
|
||
In terms of releasing the actual returns, what’s the argument for that as it relates to the presidential audit? There has to be be such a narrow scope with requesting those records and making sure that what the Ways and Means Committee is doing relates to this legislative need.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h4 id="Z4dGUS">
|
||
<strong>Virginia Canter</strong>
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="83LW4r">
|
||
They were looking to determine whether there was any legislative need to strengthen the presidential audit process. And I think, without a doubt, this shows that there needed to be more oversight and accountability with regard to the presidential audit process, and the legislation they’re proposing is a very important start to that.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h4 id="RaMwNN">
|
||
<strong>Ellen Ioanes</strong>
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="V8Dbz6">
|
||
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/30/us/politics/trump-tax-returns-takeaways.html">Some Republicans </a>are arguing that obtaining and releasing Trump’s returns means that the Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee will have tons of power to release the returns of any private citizens, political enemies, business and labor leaders, but there’s still a really high bar to have to having the returns of private citizens released publicly. So, do these threats have any meaning? Or are they just Trump and Republicans blowing hot air?
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h4 id="oiINWr">
|
||
<strong>Virginia Canter</strong>
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XAT8lO">
|
||
I think that any Republican member of Congress would be appalled if Biden, or any Democratic president had not released their returns, and they would have done the exact same thing. So I don’t buy their argument that this is somehow escalating the level of privacy. Trump’s excuse that he was under audit was a complete sham when in fact in terms of the presidential audit, every president was supposed to be under audit. Trump wasn’t in some years, which is just staggering.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Lu7JWj">
|
||
I just want to mention, as an aside, what was crazy is that Trump, was only under presidential audit for 2015 and 2016 in 2019, after the House Ways and Means committee asked for his return, and then for the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/12/trump-tax-returns-released-house-committee-irs-audit/672582/">2017, 2018, and 2019</a>, and I think 2020 returns, he didn’t get audited until he left office. I mean, that’s outstanding. I don’t know what the strategy is, but I guess when you don’t have any policy to run on, this is what you do, if you don’t have a real legislative agenda.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yOIiFR">
|
||
What was appalling is they didn’t even start his presidential audit until 2019, right after Ways and Means called them out. And even then they ignored those next few years of tax returns until after he left office. That shows to me that there was a real systemic issue. Like I said, if there wasn’t political interference, this is just beyond negligence.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BGR2iZ">
|
||
It goes to one of the points that you had raised, and that is, as significant as his tax deficiencies were, the fact that the IRS as an institution, which is supposed to be independent, and truly has been historically after Nixon, to then see that this happened, it is just, to me really remarkable. Because I have worked at Treasury, I know how the career IRS [employees behaved], they were so protective of the institution and not wanting to be politicized, and then to see employees being put in this position — it undermines the entire institution.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h4 id="s12Pck">
|
||
<strong>Ellen Ioanes</strong>
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nWN75K">
|
||
It’s hard to see what the path forward looks like for this process, especially give the Republican House coming in.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h4 id="Brh0xQ">
|
||
<strong>Virginia Canter</strong>
|
||
</h4>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="i0iU87">
|
||
The Senate still has responsibility here, and the Inspector General, at the IRS — an extremely important point here is that the IRS needs to look at this up and down. The question, though, is whether or not the IRS is going to be able to get the testimony. I can’t remember if <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5a/compiledact-95-452/section-6">the IRS IG (inspector general) has subpoena authority to get testimony from the political appointees under the Trump administration, who’ve left office</a>, but those individuals really need to be on the record, and the IG needs to be doing a thorough investigation as to how this program just totally collapsed. And the Senate also has to get that testimony.
|
||
</p></li>
|
||
<li><strong>22 predictions we made in 2022, and the 6 we got wrong</strong> -
|
||
<figure>
|
||
<img alt="An image of darts in a dart board. Two darts are in the center. Right where you’re trying to get the darts to go." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/50YRq8WOpuVTGYvriRuuzoYvcQk=/333x0:3000x2000/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71809679/prediction22.0.jpg"/>
|
||
<figcaption>
|
||
Getty Images/Vox
|
||
</figcaption>
|
||
</figure>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
Plus a couple that are halfway in between.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="O0mXqh">
|
||
As we’ve done in the past, the Future Perfect team sat down last year to try to <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022">predict what was to come in 2022</a>. It’s something we do annually to test out our forecasting abilities.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aCjUCK">
|
||
Good news: our prognostication improved slightly from the year before. Of the 22 predictions we made, 12 were judged to be definitely correct, while another two were at least partially right. That adds up to a batting average of .636, which, if we were playing in the major leagues, would earn us a contract even richer than the one the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/07/sports/baseball/yankees-aaron-judge-contract.html#:~:text=Aaron%20Judge%2C%20who%20hit%2062,at%20least%20two%20other%20teams.">Yankees just gave Aaron Judge</a>.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="W2RqUU">
|
||
Sadly, society does not put the same monetary value on accurate punditry that it does on the ability to hit baseballs <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10042040-the-longest-home-runs-in-mlb-in-the-last-decade">halfway to the moon</a>. And some of our swings-and-misses were real whiffs. Among our six wrong predictions, we failed to foresee that the Democrats would <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23425051/midterm-elections-2022-senate-majority-congress-democrats-cortez-masto">keep control of the US Senate</a>, or that inflation would <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/10/23450034/fed-inflation-consumer-price-index">rise well above the 3 percent</a> we predicted, or that the World Health Organization (WHO) would <a href="https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants">not designate a new Covid variant of concern</a>. (Omicron, which was just intensifying as we made our predictions last year, isn’t going anywhere.) But we did successfully predict that the Supreme Court would <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/6/24/23181720/supreme-court-dobbs-jackson-womens-health-samuel-alito-roe-wade-abortion-marriage-contraception">overturn <em>Roe v. Wade</em></a>, that Emmanuel Macron would be <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/4/24/23039772/french-election-macron-le-pen-france-future-politics">re-elected in France</a>, and that AI would make its <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/8/3/23288843/deepmind-alphafold-artificial-intelligence-biology-drugs-medicine-demis-hassabis">presence felt in drug discovery</a>.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JXFmZC">
|
||
As my colleague Dylan Matthews wrote last year, “<a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22812197/predict-2021-trump-biden-covid-germany">Predicting the future is a skill</a> at which some people are dramatically better than others, and practicing is one of the best ways to improve at it.” And part of practicing it is holding ourselves accountable for what we get wrong, as well as what we get right. It’s an epistemic habit the rest of the journalism world might want to consider.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mVey44">
|
||
So here’s what we got right and wrong about the year 2022. (And check back in January when we reveal our predictions for 2023.) —<em>Bryan Walsh</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h2 id="R10ZMz">
|
||
The United States
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<h3 id="wJIcn2">
|
||
<strong>Democrats will lose their majorities in the US House and Senate (95 percent) — WRONG</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XUr8xZ">
|
||
Like <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/senate">most</a> <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/">election forecasters</a>, I anticipated that Republicans would make major gains in the 2022 midterms and retake both houses of Congress. My reasoning was simple: The party out of power almost always gains seats in midterms. That’s why I so confidently predicted that Republicans would take the House and Senate this year — plus, the Democratic margin in the Senate was razor-thin, so it wouldn’t take much to knock over.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="v1I3Sc">
|
||
I was not just wrong but wildly overconfident in my wrongness — and I feel worse about the overconfidence. In particular, I was much too cocky about the Senate. The House really is pretty predictable, and despite Democrats doing much better than expected, they still lost that body. Ninety-five percent was probably the right odds for that prediction: It would’ve taken a truly dramatic upset for Dems to hold it. But I should’ve remembered that as recently as 2018, the party out of power retook the House while <em>losing</em> seats in the Senate, because the Senate, with its different electoral map and six-year terms, is an odd institution. Results depend as much on which states happen to have elections as on the national mood. —<em>Dylan Matthews</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="iL7VSB">
|
||
<strong>Inflation in the US will average under 3 percent (80 percent) — WRONG</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uS9MBh">
|
||
The definition of “inflation” I was using here was annualized rate of growth in the <a href="https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/quick-guide-some-popular-bea-price-indexes">personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index</a>, excluding food and energy. This measure, known as “core PCE,” is the one preferred by the Federal Reserve, and thus the one most relevant for public policy. I also pledged to consider the average of the first three quarters of 2022, as the data from the final quarter is not available yet.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="841o0y">
|
||
Taking that all into account, the <a href="https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-11/gdp3q22_2nd.pdf#page=12">real average</a> for the first three quarters of 2022 was 4.97 percent, which discerning readers will note is higher than 3 percent. I was in good company in missing the mark here: <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20211215.htm">The Fed predicted</a> core PCE inflation of 2.7 percent in 2022; the <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data#4">Congressional Budget Office predicted</a> 2 percent; <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q4-2021">professional private-sector forecasters</a> predicted 2.5 percent in quarter one and 2.3 percent in quarter three.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QNR10j">
|
||
Why did we all get it wrong? It’s complicated but <a href="https://www.vox.com/22996474/inflation-federal-reserve-nairu-ngdp-powell">I tried to explain in this piece from April</a>. As I wrote then, “I unfairly dismissed the most boring, Econ 101 explanation for why inflation happens: that there was too much money sloshing around for the amount of stuff the economy was able to produce — meaning the price of that stuff went up.” —<em>DM</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="vhwbSY">
|
||
<strong>Unemployment in the US will fall below 4 percent by November (80 percent) — RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FSuyPl">
|
||
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf">unemployment rate in November was 3.7 percent</a>.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rcwFVn">
|
||
That’s about where it was right before Covid struck — <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_03062020.pdf">unemployment in February 2020 was 3.5 percent</a>, which immediately spiked when the virus and attendant lockdowns and business closures hit.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qR0OQM">
|
||
For predictions about economic indicators like this one, I tend to just look at the behavior of the relevant statistic over the last several years, to get a sense of how often a prediction like this would be right just by chance. Then I adjust a bit for the specific circumstances. But sometimes it’s tricky to figure out what class you’re comparing to — unemployment rates over the last 20 years, which have rarely been below 4 percent? Unemployment rates over the last five years, which were generally below 4 percent until Covid struck?
|
||
</p>
|
||
<figure class="e-image">
|
||
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/lFajubnqkUFzkeAFNQnMoLjujwQ=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24296358/GettyImages_1446298468.jpg"/> <cite>Getty Images</cite>
|
||
<figcaption>
|
||
A “help wanted” sign is displayed in a window of a store in Manhattan on December 2, 2022 in New York City.
|
||
</figcaption>
|
||
</figure>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zY3Cr3">
|
||
By the end of 2021, when I made this prediction, it looked to me like we were already moving toward the pre-Covid unemployment rates, with unemployment back down to around 4 percent, so I went with the latter as the point of comparison. This prediction was just that unemployment would fall a little farther in 2022, which it did. —<em>Kelsey Piper</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="nyQZH9">
|
||
<strong>The Supreme Court will overturn </strong><em><strong>Roe v. Wade</strong></em><strong> (65 percent) — RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="83i2GQ">
|
||
I predicted that the Supreme Court would use the case of <em>Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization</em> to overturn <em>Roe</em>, and further that it would do so with the votes of all conservatives but John Roberts. That was the impression I got from <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/12/majority-of-court-appears-poised-to-uphold-mississippis-ban-on-most-abortions-after-15-weeks/">court observers</a> like my colleague <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/12/1/22811837/supreme-court-roe-wade-abortion-doomed-jackson-womens-health-dobbs-barrett-kavanaugh-roberts">Ian Millhiser</a> and the prediction market at <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220101165005/https://fantasyscotus.net/case-prediction/dobbs-v-jackson-womens-health-organization/">FantasyScotus</a>, following oral arguments.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ugUdDh">
|
||
Given how badly I miffed the midterm and inflation predictions, I’m somewhat relieved that I got this one right in every particular. Roberts joined in the decision but not in Samuel Alito’s opinion overruling <em>Roe</em>. It’s not the outcome I wanted, but it was easily foreseeable ahead of time. —<em>DM</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="dxnuI6">
|
||
<strong>Stephen Breyer will retire from the Supreme Court (55 percent) — RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OEgXiT">
|
||
I predicted that Breyer, partly reacting to Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s arrogant insistence on staying on the Supreme Court during the Obama administration (which directly contributed to the <em>Dobbs</em> ruling), would retire while he was still confident Joe Biden had a Democratic Senate to confirm his replacement. That is indeed what Breyer did, and Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson now holds that seat.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OuiFEu">
|
||
If anything, I was underconfident. I probably could have put higher odds on a Breyer retirement, given what a plain disaster Ginsburg’s decision was proven to be for the causes she and Breyer care(d) about. —<em>DM</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h2 id="nITn9E">
|
||
The world
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<h3 id="l4H7ly">
|
||
<strong>Emmanuel Macron will be reelected as president of France (65 percent) — RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="X5zu2i">
|
||
My reasoning here was that Macron was solidly ahead of both far-right candidates in polling (Éric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen) and that for him to have a real fight, he’d have to face Gaullist center-right contender Valérie Pécresse in the runoff election.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="CQCLoJ">
|
||
But the electorate seemed to shift leftward in the early months of 2022. Both Zemmour and Pécresse saw their support fall off a cliff, with the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_presidential_election#Macron_vs._P%C3%A9cresse">latter doing worse than Le Pen in head-to-head polls</a> against Macron. Meanwhile, far-left contender Jean-Luc Mélenchon saw a late surge in polling and came a close third, almost making the runoff against Macron. Ultimately, though, as most people suspected, the runoff was a rerun of 2017, with Macron and Le Pen facing off, and the latter, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/22/france-elections-russia-ties-haunt-far-right-candidate-le-pen.html">dogged by her longstanding support of Vladimir Putin</a> in a campaign happening in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, lost by about 10 points.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BW9Nrb">
|
||
I might have underestimated Macron here, or perhaps overestimated his opponents. But 65 percent made sense a year ago and I think it’s a defensible number now. —<em>DM</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="aV7tPM">
|
||
<strong>Jair Bolsonaro will be reelected as president of Brazil (55 percent) — WRONG</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bPb4k8">
|
||
This is what you get for defying the polls! Far-right <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/10/opinion/brazil-bolsonaro-militias.html">death squad aficionado</a> Bolsonaro was, at the time I wrote this prediction, behind leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in public polling. But I thought the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/27/brazil-continues-south-americas-incumbent-streak/">incumbency advantage</a> for South American presidents and the history of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_Brazilian_presidential_election">polling</a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2018_Brazilian_general_election">misses</a> in past Brazilian presidential races gave Bolsonaro a slight advantage anyway.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WTBc8Q">
|
||
I was wrong, and Lula won narrowly in the runoff. On a personal level I’m happy; I certainly prefer Lula’s politics. But this was a tough miss on a prediction level. —<em>DM</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="zRD2pr">
|
||
<strong>Bongbong Marcos will be elected as president of the Philippines (55 percent) — RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aa4bun">
|
||
Polling in the Philippine election was sparse going into 2022, so I didn’t want to be overly confident. That said, Bongbong Marcos, the son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, was always the obvious frontrunner, and so I felt confident that he had the best odds of anybody, even if he wasn’t the overwhelming favorite.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="M9fsL9">
|
||
I was underconfident. Marcos did not merely win but demolished the opposition, beating his nearest opponent by over 30 points. He’s been <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/marcos-philippines-human-rights-us-relations/">less authoritarian as president</a> than I had feared, if still not ideal, but he certainly won by more than I expected. —<em>DM</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="JkyhwN">
|
||
<strong>Rebels will NOT capture the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa (55 percent) — RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wTQpN9">
|
||
This was an odd prediction: Initially I had thought that the Tigray People’s Liberation Front <em>would</em> take Addis Ababa, as had <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/15/ethiopia-tplf-abiy-tigray-war-amhara-oromo-avert-catastrophe-in-ethiopia/">seemed likely</a> in late 2021. By the end of December, the tide had turned and the Ethiopian army looked to be routing the TPLF, so in the end I reversed the prediction.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PSnAR4">
|
||
December 2021 me was right, and November 2021 me was wrong. Addis did not fall, and in November 2022 the two sides <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/03/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-civil-war-agreement.html">agreed to a permanent ceasefire</a>, complete with the full disarmament of the Tigrayan forces. The Tigrayans have reported that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopias-tigray-forces-say-they-have-withdrawn-65-fighters-frontlines-2022-12-04/">65 percent of their troops have since withdrawn from the frontlines</a>. There’s still time for the tentative peace deal to fracture, but it’s an immensely hopeful sign after internal fighting that had led to an <a href="https://martinplaut.com/2022/10/19/new-estimate-of-the-tigray-death-toll/">estimated death toll between 385,000 and 600,000</a>, with most deaths due to famine and disruptions to health care infrastructure, rather than direct combat. UN investigators have found evidence of <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements-and-speeches/2022/09/international-commission-human-rights-experts-ethiopia-united">serious war crimes committed by both parties to the conflict</a>. —<em>DM</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="sG11ZM">
|
||
<strong>Chinese GDP will continue to grow for the first three quarters of the year (95 percent) — RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rAKRsi">
|
||
Per the <a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202210/t20221024_1889500.html">National Bureau of Statistics of China</a>, GDP grew at a year-over-year rate of 4.8 percent in the first quarter, 0.4 percent in the second quarter, and 3.9 percent in the third quarter, for an average of about 3 percent for the year. This is not too surprising. Per <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CN">World Bank data</a>, the last year that Chinese GDP fell was 1976, when Mao Zedong died and the Gang of Four was deposed. The 2008 global financial crisis and the pandemic in 2020 (originating in China) couldn’t stop the country’s economy from growing, at least in the official numbers the government agrees to put out.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uzjBKW">
|
||
But I’m less confident this trend will continue. The Chinese people <a href="https://www.vox.com/podcasts/2022/12/5/23494424/china-covid-protests-testing-surveillance-state">clearly are fed up with the country’s extreme Covid restrictions</a> and it seems like a resolution will involve either further repression, which might hamper growth, or else easing those restrictions, which risks a major Covid outbreak that could in turn hamper growth. (As I write this in mid-December, the latter outcome <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/14/china-covid-surge-asymptomatic-cases-deaths/">already seems to be taking place</a>.) China is still in a fairly solid economic position but it faces much more significant risks, at least to my eyes, than it did a year ago. —<em>DM</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="SMC2tM">
|
||
<strong>China will not reopen its borders in the first half of 2022 (80 percent) — RIGHT </strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5omsxl">
|
||
As predicted, through the first half of 2022, China’s borders <a href="https://www.travelinglifestyle.net/china-reopening-borders-for-international-visitors-mid-august/">remained</a> <a href="https://www.chinahighlights.com/travelguide/china-travel-reopen-restrictions.htm">closed</a> for foreign tourism. This was easy to foresee from knowing just a little bit about the country. Economically, China could afford to keep its borders closed; exports and foreign investment were doing just fine. And politically, China had every motivation to stay closed: With the Beijing Winter Olympics in February, followed by the session of its rubber-stamp parliament and, later in the year, its party congress, I was sure the government wouldn’t want to let in foreigners who might critique its policies, especially its <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22311356/china-uyghur-birthrate-sterilization-genocide">human rights abuses</a>.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QYCpV5">
|
||
It was only later in the year that China’s incentives began to shift enough to prompt a reconsideration of its “zero-Covid” policy. On September 16, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism <a href="https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-travel-restrictions-2021-2022-an-explainer-updated/">released a drafted measure</a> on a possible, yet controlled, return of tourism. On December 7, following brave protests by its citizens, China <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/07/china/china-covid-restrictions-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html">began relaxing zero-Covid measures</a>. <em>—Sigal Samuel</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h2 id="o7PHf8">
|
||
<strong>Covid-19</strong>
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<h3 id="vI2hcq">
|
||
<strong>20 percent of US children between 6 months and 5 years old will have received at least one Covid vaccine by year’s end (65 percent) — WRONG </strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="KdEyCo">
|
||
Alas, only 6.5 percent of US children under the age of 2 had<strong> </strong>received at least one Covid vaccine as of early December. A slightly higher percentage, 9.4 percent, of children 2-4 years old had received at least one dose, according to <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographics-trends">data from the CDC</a>.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5QTgc0">
|
||
When I initially made this prediction, I cited polling that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/09/20/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine">suggests</a> that the younger their children are, the more hesitant parents become about getting them the Covid vaccine. That’s why I said I was only 65 percent confident in my prediction, and why I said “I’m not going to bet on a higher percentage” than 20 percent of kids under 5 being vaccinated. Unfortunately, it looks like even that forecast underestimated parents’ hesitance. <em>—SS</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<figure class="e-image">
|
||
<img alt="A toddler sits on her mother’s lap. The toddler is crying." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7jer-hbN2ozEmp3cxv4Cunkj53o=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24296360/GettyImages_1242328782.jpg"/> <cite>Denver Post via Getty Images</cite>
|
||
<figcaption>
|
||
A toddler gets vaccinated in Denver, Colorado on August 5, 2022.
|
||
</figcaption>
|
||
</figure>
|
||
<h3 id="f2Il5c">
|
||
<strong>The WHO will designate another variant of concern by year’s end (75 percent) — WRONG</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0tYHCd">
|
||
I’m so happy I was wrong about this one! My reasoning at the time was this: Within the previous year, five variants of concern had made it onto the WHO’s list. It seemed unlikely that we’d go all of 2022 without adding at least one more to that list. Between rich countries hoarding doses and some populations showing hesitancy to get immunized, it seemed <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22808454/omicron-global-vaccination-efforts-covid">we weren’t vaccinating the globe fast enough</a> to starve the virus of chances to mutate into something new and serious.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pxdkke">
|
||
I think that was a reasonable take at the time, and experts <a href="https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-variants-of-concern-omicron">still voice</a> the same concern now. But so far, instead of totally new variants of concern, what we’ve seen is a soup of sublineages of the Omicron variant. The omicron family has been outcompeting other variants because of mutations that allow it to evade the immunity people have built up through infection, vaccination, or both. As the computational biologist Jesse Bloom <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/10/25/1129196088/covid-new-omicron-variants-immunity">told NPR</a>, “That’s evolution’s way of saying ‘this mutation is repeatedly getting selected over and over again because it’s really helpful.’” <em>—SS</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="pdTbYx">
|
||
<strong>12 billion shots will be given out against Covid-19 globally by November 2022 (80 percent) — RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hN4g0g">
|
||
World Covid-19 shots <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">reached 12 billion in June 2022</a>. By November, the number was <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">just above 12.9 billion</a>. Notably, most Covid vaccines that have been given out since they first became available were actually given out in 2021 — by 2022 things had slowed down considerably, with most people worldwide either fully vaccinated or less susceptible to Covid because of having been exposed to it (or both).
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="NFlgUJ">
|
||
With the worldwide Covid vaccination program <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/06/health/covid-vaccines-covax-gavi.html">coming to a likely end this month</a>, as demand dwindles, it’s worth reflecting on what an achievement this is. Within two years of the virus first being identified in humans, we made and distributed enough shots to vaccinate nearly the whole world twice over. That’s nothing short of astonishing. —<em>KP</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="nExTE7">
|
||
<strong>… but at least one country will have less than 10 percent of people vaccinated with two shots by November 2022 — (70 percent) — RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6fsVBM">
|
||
As of December 18, 2022, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html">the New York Times reports</a> the following seven countries had less than 10 percent of people fully vaccinated: Burundi (0.2 percent), Yemen (2.6 percent), Haiti (2.1 percent), Papua New Guinea (3.5 percent), Congo (4.3 percent), Madagascar (7.1 percent), and Senegal (8.3 percent). (A few other countries did not report vaccination data.) While the effort to develop vaccines against a new disease and deploy them worldwide was a huge scientific, technical, and political achievement, it didn’t reach everywhere. And while many of the countries on this list simply never received enough vaccines in anywhere near enough time, hesitancy played a big role in keeping vaccination rates low even where they were widely accessible. Some 30 percent of Americans <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/these-states-have-the-best-covid-19-vaccination-rates">never chose to get fully vaccinated</a>. —<em>KP</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h2 id="YGjnOh">
|
||
<strong>Science and technology</strong>
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<h3 id="h8MtPT">
|
||
<strong>A psychedelic drug will be decriminalized or legalized in at least one new US state (75 percent) — RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LlydzE">
|
||
Because the movement to decriminalize or legalize psychedelic drugs has been gaining traction over the past few years, I reasoned there was a good chance we’d see the movement notch another victory at the state level in 2022. The likeliest contender, I thought, was California, which had plans to put <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/california-psychedelics-bill-put-on-back-burner-until-2022/">decriminalization of a wide class of psychedelics</a> to a vote in a 2022 ballot measure. That hasn’t quite panned out yet: Senate Bill 519 has been amended to a working group study on psychedelic policy options, and state Senator Scott Wiener intends to reintroduce a more comprehensive version of the bill next year.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="V3QwyF">
|
||
But my prediction was borne out anyway — in Colorado. As Time <a href="https://time.com/6232212/colorado-decriminalizes-psychedelics-psilocybin-proposition-122/">reported</a> in November: “Colorado voters have approved the broadest psychedelic legalization in the U.S., which would decriminalize five psychedelic substances and enable adults to receive psychedelics at licensed centers… Statewide legalization was also a big step forward for Colorado activists.” <em>—SS</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="ZzD7uX">
|
||
<strong>US government will not renew the ban on funding gain-of-function research (60 percent) — RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="E11Vw5">
|
||
In 2014, after a series of disastrous lab incidents that made it clear our current system is inadequate to protect against high-stakes laboratory accidents, and after some controversial proposals for new work designing contagious and deadly viral variants, the US imposed a temporary ban on funding so-called gain of function research on pathogens with the potential to cause a pandemic. Many scientists argued the risks of such work grossly outweigh the benefits. But in 2017 the ban was replaced with the PPP framework for evaluating such research, which has remained in place, <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/10/19/23412562/covid-omircron-gain-of-function-research-engineered-pandemic-biosafety">despite increasing attention to the risks of gain-of-function work</a>. —<em>KP</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="WpAPWk">
|
||
<strong>AI will discover a new drug — or an old drug fit for new purposes — that’s promising enough for clinical trials (85 percent) — RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="c8kzx2">
|
||
In 2020 and 2021, the hype we’d been hearing about AI’s potential to transform drug discovery began to turn into reality: Using AI, researchers found <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/2/27/21153521/ai-antibiotic-drug-resistance-superbugs">a new type of antibiotic</a>, a new drug for <a href="https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/exscientia-to-start-world-first-clinical-trials-of-ai-designed-immuno-oncology-drug/">patients with tumors</a>, a new drug for <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210513005059/en/Exscientia-Announces-Second-Molecule-Created-Using-AI-From-Sumitomo-Dainippon-Pharma-Collaboration-to-Enter-Phase-1-Clinical-Trial">Alzheimer’s disease psychosis</a>, and a new pill for OCD that would be the first <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/1/31/21117102/artificial-intelligence-drug-discovery-exscientia">AI-designed drug to be clinically tested on humans</a>.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Kuh41x">
|
||
This was clearly an accelerating trend, so I felt confident predicting AI would discover at least one more drug fit for clinical trials in 2022. Happily for all sorts of patients, this was right. To give just one exciting example: In May, Insilico Medicine announced a <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/insilico-medicine-announces-novel-3cl-protease-inhibitor-preclinical-candidate-for-covid-19-treatment-301553766.html?tc=eml_cleartime">candidate for Covid-19 treatment</a>, and the company’s chief scientific officer Feng Ren<strong> </strong>said, “We are committed to progress the molecule as fast as possible into clinical trials evaluating its usage in Covid-19 treatment.” You can find more examples <a href="https://www.biopharmatrend.com/m/ai-pipelines/">here</a>. There are currently at least 23 new AI-assisted treatments in clinical trials. <em>— SS</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h2 id="Zimiri">
|
||
<strong>Environment</strong>
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<h3 id="I8S3Xv">
|
||
<strong>The Biden administration will set the social cost of carbon at $100 per ton or more (70 percent) — PARTIALLY RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Qvnq8r">
|
||
This one’s tricky. The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a measure, in dollars, of how much economic damage results from emitting 1 ton of carbon dioxide — and there’s good reason to think <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22643358/social-cost-of-carbon-mortality-biden-discounting">we’ve been radically underestimating it</a>. The Biden administration has been using $51 as an interim SCC, but with many experts saying it should be at least double that, I was reasonably confident the administration would set it at $100 or more when it finished studying the matter and released its final determination.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<figure class="e-image">
|
||
<img alt="A photo of cloud-like smog, white against the blue sky, emitting from a smokestack. In the foreground is a chainlink fence with a sign reading “Naughton Power Plant.” " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QUTCeq0IR4CjG9WXoNzrLlVwaAc=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24296362/GettyImages_1245008208.jpg"/> <cite>Getty Images</cite>
|
||
<figcaption>
|
||
A mixture of steam and pollutants are emitted from the Naughton coal-fired power plant November 22, 2022 in Kemmerer, Wyoming.
|
||
</figcaption>
|
||
</figure>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2C5vdA">
|
||
That determination was supposed to come out from the Interagency Working Group in January 2022, but we are still waiting for the official word, to the frustration of many. However, the EPA did <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/epa-floats-sharply-increased-social-cost-of-carbon/">propose increasing the SCC to $190</a>. And the EPA is part of the Interagency Working Group. It’s a good indication of where the thinking is at. For now, I’ll mark this partially right. <em>—SS</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="tzgw0y">
|
||
<strong>2022 will be warmer than 2021 (80 percent) — PROBABLY RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="8SVgi5">
|
||
An unfortunate consequence of global warming: Betting that a given year will be warmer than the last is generally an easy win, unless the previous year was a record-breaking scorcher. 2021 wasn’t, so I felt safe in guessing 2022 would surpass it, and indeed it did: 2022 appears to be on track to be the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202206/supplemental/page-1">sixth-warmest year on record</a>. All of the 10 warmest years ever to be recorded have happened since 2005. And while much of the world is making progress on a transition away from carbon-emitting fuels, at our current pace it’ll be safe to keep on betting on unusually warm years. —<em>KP</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h2 id="jiCc7A">
|
||
<strong>Culture and sport</strong>
|
||
</h2>
|
||
<h3 id="rItGha">
|
||
<strong>Kenneth Branagh’s </strong><em><strong>Belfast</strong></em><strong> will win Best Picture (55 percent) — WRONG</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BwoA8R">
|
||
As of January 1, 2022, the betting sites <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220101165115/https://www.oddschecker.com/us/awards/oscars/best-picture">bet365</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220101165026/https://www.vegasinsider.com/awards/odds/oscars/">BetMGM</a>, and <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220101164953/https://www.betfair.com/sport/special-bets/oscars/10630003/best-picture/924.262221273">Betfair</a> all listed <em>Belfast</em>, Kenneth Branagh’s film à clef about growing up in the titular Northern Ireland city during the Troubles, as their favorite to win Best Picture, though none of them gave it odds as high as I did. In retrospect the bookies were right, and the category was simply not predictable enough for probabilities like 55 percent to make sense.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="43aklC">
|
||
My basic case for <em>Belfast</em> was that it was sappy middlebrow audience-pleasing fare and that the Academy loves that stuff. I was not wrong, I just picked the wrong sappy middlebrow audience-pleasing fare. It turns out that was <em>CODA</em>, the eventual underdog victor, while the revisionist Western <em>The Power of the Dog</em> was good enough to win Jane Campion a Best Director trophy, but too weird for the big prize. Branagh had to satisfy himself with a Best Original Screenplay win, his first Oscar in a very long career. —<em>DM</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="2vYD8i">
|
||
<strong>Norway will win the most medals at the 2022 Winter Olympics (60 percent) — RIGHT</strong>
|
||
</h3>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="N149hU">
|
||
Gracenote, a division of Nielsen, <a href="https://www.gracenote.com/virtual-medal-table/">predicts the Olympics</a> by looking at recent results in non-Olympic competitions in various events, and it gave Norway a strong edge in the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, relative to their closest competitors, the awkwardly branded Russian Olympic Committee. I fully outsourced my prediction to Gracenote and it paid off beautifully: Norway got more medals (37) than any other country, and more golds (16) too. ROC was second on medals with 32, while Germany was second on golds with 12.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="g2Q353">
|
||
Not to get too political here, but one might fairly note that it’s odd Norway, a nation with 5.4 million people representing roughly 0.07 percent of the world’s population, received 11.3 percent of Winter Olympic medals and 14.7 percent of gold medals. It got 161 times as many medals as its population would suggest. What’s more, their medals came from objectively bizarre sports like biathlon (14 medals from the arctic drive-by shooting sport) and cross-country skiing (8 medals from the worst activity I’ve ever tried in my life) and Nordic combined (4; quick, tell me what Nordic combined is <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=nordic+combined&oq=nordic+combined&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.2507j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">without googling</a>).
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="n1RMDI">
|
||
I liked the 2021 Norwegian film <em>The Worst Person in the World</em> as much as anybody but this is absurd and the International Olympic Committee should take these smug <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/electric-cars-take-two-thirds-norway-car-market-led-by-tesla-2022-01-03/">Tesla-driving</a> <a href="https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1xdtrfjm5hgkg/Can-Norway-s-1-3-Trillion-Oil-Fund-Actually-Give-Up-Oil">oilmongers</a> down a peg or two. —<em>DM</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qdeJ59">
|
||
<em>Additional research by </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/authors/oshan-jarow"><em>Oshan Jarow</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/authors/julieta-cardenas"><em>Julieta Cardenas</em></a><em>, and </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/authors/rachel-durose"><em>Rachel DuRose</em></a><em>.</em>
|
||
</p>
|
||
<h3 id="NXSM9o">
|
||
</h3></li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>BCCI review: Yo-Yo test returns, Dexa also added to selection criteria for Indian team</strong> - In a statement, the BCCI said the roadmap for the 2023 World Cup at home was also discussed in the meeting.</p></li>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Exclusive shines</strong> -</p></li>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Sri Lankan team depart for white-ball tour to India</strong> - India and Sri Lanka have announced their squads for three T20Is and three ODIs scheduled from January 3 to January 15</p></li>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Saina Nehwal among shuttlers to skip Badminton Asia Mixed Team Championships 2023 trials</strong> - Saina endured a tough 2022, battling multiple injuries and a lack of form that saw her slump to world number 31</p></li>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Vaidehi Chaudhari beats top seed Laskutova for maiden pro singles title</strong> - Vaidehi had won her maiden doubles title on Saturday with Laskutova as partner</p></li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>At least three killed in fire after blast at cracker factory in Maharashtra’s Solapur</strong> - The blaze erupted at the unit located at Shirala in Barshi taluka around 3 pm</p></li>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Madurai Reader’s Mail</strong> -</p></li>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Jaishankar meets Austrian counterpart Schallenberg</strong> - External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, who arrived here from Cyprus on the second leg of his two-nation tour, also met Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer</p></li>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>100% sewage in Hyderabad to be treated from this summer: KTR</strong> - No other city has been getting such importance for creating the modern infrastructure at this speed, says Minister</p></li>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Dindigul Reader’s Mail</strong> -</p></li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Pope Francis and world leaders pay tribute to Benedict XVI</strong> - The head of the Catholic Church pays his respects to his predecessor Benedict, who resigned in 2013.</p></li>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine war: Zelensky tells Russians - Putin is destroying you</strong> - Ukraine’s president says his country will never forgive Russians for the terror they have inflicted.</p></li>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine war: New year in Putin’s Russia - nothing is normal</strong> - The BBC’s Steve Rosenberg on the Kremlin’s alternative reality as 2023 begins.</p></li>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine war: Deadly explosions hit Kyiv on New Year’s Eve</strong> - Kyiv Mayor Vitaly Klitschko says there is damage in several districts of the city and one person has died.</p></li>
|
||
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Andrew Tate: Romanian police to hold influencer for 30 days</strong> - The controversial influencer is detained in an investigation into rape and human trafficking.</p></li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ancient Chinese text reveals earliest known record of a candidate aurora</strong> - Passage in <em>Bamboo Annals</em> describes a “five-colored light” in 10th century BCE. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1848676">link</a></p></li>
|
||
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Where 2022’s news was (mostly) good: The year’s top science stories</strong> - Better urinals, older pants, and a helicopter on Mars, oh my! - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1906983">link</a></p></li>
|
||
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Busting a myth: Saturn V rocket wasn’t loud enough to melt concrete</strong> - It also wasn’t loud enough to ignite grass or hair, or “blast rainbows from the sky.” - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1907031">link</a></p></li>
|
||
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>TV Technica 2022: These were our favorite shows and binges of the year</strong> - Streamers dominated original programming in 2022, but the 2023 forecast is cloudy. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1901866">link</a></p></li>
|
||
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Could getting rid of old cells turn back the clock on aging?</strong> - Researchers are investigating medicines that selectively kill decrepit cells. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1906940">link</a></p></li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
|
||
<ul>
|
||
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>I was gonna tell a joke about time traveling</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
|
||
<div class="md">
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
But you guys didn’t like it
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Victor882"> /u/Victor882 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/1000m2h/i_was_gonna_tell_a_joke_about_time_traveling/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/1000m2h/i_was_gonna_tell_a_joke_about_time_traveling/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
||
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>What do you call a guy with a small dick?</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
|
||
<div class="md">
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
Just-in!
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Outrageous-River3744"> /u/Outrageous-River3744 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/1003qlg/what_do_you_call_a_guy_with_a_small_dick/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/1003qlg/what_do_you_call_a_guy_with_a_small_dick/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
||
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Pope died and arrived in heaven</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
|
||
<div class="md">
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
St. Peter asks who he is.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
The Pope: “I am the pope.”
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
St. Peter: “Who? There’s no such name in my book.”
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
The Pope: “I’m the representative of God on Earth.”
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
St. Peter: “Does God have a representative? He didn’t tell me…”
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
The Pope: “But I am the leader of the Catholic Church…”
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
St. Peter: “The Catholic church… Never heard of it… Wait, I’ll check with the boss.”
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
St. Peter walks away through Heaven’s Gate to talk with God.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
St. Peter: “There’s a dude standing outside who claims he’s your representative on earth.”
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
God: “I don’t have a representative on earth, not that I know of… Wait, I’ll ask Jesus.” (yells for Jesus)
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
Jesus: “Yes Dad, what’s up?”
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
God and St. Peter explain the situation.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
Jesus: “Wait, I’ll go outside and have a little chat with that fellow.”
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
Ten minutes pass and Jesus reenters the room laughing out loud. After a few minutes St. Peter asks Jesus why he’s laughing.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
Jesus: “Remember that fishing club I’ve started 2000 years ago? It still exists!”
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/shampoo_and_dick"> /u/shampoo_and_dick </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/1004kw5/pope_died_and_arrived_in_heaven/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/1004kw5/pope_died_and_arrived_in_heaven/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
||
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Police found a large number of dead crows on the A251 just outside Ashford yesterday morning, and there was concern that they may have died from Bird Flu…</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
|
||
<div class="md">
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
A Pathologist examined the remains of all the crows, and it’s been confirmed the problem was not Bird Flu.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
The cause of death appeared to be from vehicular impacts, however, during analysis it was noted that varying colours of paints appeared on the bird’s beaks and claws.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
By analysing this paint residue, it was found that 98% of the crows had been killed by impact with lorries, while only 2% were killed by cars.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
Ornithological Behaviourists wondered if there was a cause for the disproportionate percentages of lorry kills versus car kills. They quickly concluded that when crows eat road kill, they always have a look-out crow to warn of danger.
|
||
</p>
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
They discovered that while all the look-out crows could shout “Cah”, not a single one could shout “Lorry”.
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/mykeuk"> /u/mykeuk </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/zzv5sw/police_found_a_large_number_of_dead_crows_on_the/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/zzv5sw/police_found_a_large_number_of_dead_crows_on_the/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
||
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>80% of the women who were asked if they fake orgasms said yes.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
|
||
<div class="md">
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
||
Actually, they said “Yes! Oh God, Yes!”
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
||
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/YZXFILE"> /u/YZXFILE </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/100alun/80_of_the_women_who_were_asked_if_they_fake/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/100alun/80_of_the_women_who_were_asked_if_they_fake/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
|
||
|
||
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