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King says that you really can’t understand what we’re up against if you don’t take seriously the idea that this is a congenital problem in America: that these practices, that these ideas have dug their heels deep into our structural arrangements.

Zack Beauchamp

So let’s take this theory and apply it to the present day. How would a Kingian antiracist politics think through and address our very different contemporary set of social problems?

Brandon Terry

Part of the trouble with thinking with Martin Luther King Jr. is that he’s become so iconic, and the civil rights movement has become so iconic, that we forget that their arguments, that their forms of demonstration, that their practices are answers to questions, particular questions they were trying to ask.

King’s philosophy is born of struggle. And these ideas, his attempts to theorize the social world, come out of experiments in politics. He’s got a view that part of what protest is about is trying to throw the reflexes and habits of a politics of domination off balance, so that people might hear the other’s arguments better and really respond to them.

The metaphor he often used was “moral jiujitsu.” In jiujitsu, you use the force of the opponent’s attack against them, redirecting the force to do something surprising. And King’s always trying to think like that.

In his time, he thought the greatest stereotype against Black people that’s being used to diminish our equal standing is the idea that we are passive recipients of all manner of abuse who don’t value our own standing. That we will tolerate any infringement upon our person and be humiliated ad nauseam.

If that’s the stereotype regime in which you inhabit, then the kinds of protests that they developed are just remarkable aesthetic and political responses to that set of presumptions. Who could hold that view after witnessing what the civil rights movement’s classical phase sought to demonstrate?

They were so successful in their challenge to that regime of stereotype that you and I live under the exact opposite regime — which is that Black people are now seen as hypersensitive, so utterly obsessed with any slight, that they will fly off the handle and protest at a moment’s notice. We are the protest people in people’s imagination.

Part of the task of our intellectuals, and part of the task of our activists, is to recover [King’s] questions. So instead of saying, “We know what a protest looks like, because we’ve seen it on Black History Month footage,” we need to say, “They were protesting in a way meant to disarm fear. What are the fears of our moment, and how might we disarm them?”

When we talk about voter suppression, King thought the vote was a matter of dignity. Are our protests about voter suppression appropriately conveying that this is a matter of dignity, not of partisan politics?

So recovering the questions is really, really important.

In his speech, Putin recognized as independent the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic and the Donetsk People’s Republic, two territories in eastern Ukraine where he has backed separatists since 2014. “Otherwise, all responsibility for the possible continuation of the bloodshed will be entirely on the conscience of the regime ruling on the territory of Ukraine,” Putin said. “Announcing the decisions taken today, I am confident in the support of the citizens of Russia. Of all the patriotic forces of the country.”

Soon after, Putin announced the deployment of troops for “peacekeeping operations.”

Most experts Vox spoke to said this looks like the beginning, not the end, of Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, although it is impossible to predict events with certainty. Russia’s declaration of independence for the breakaway territories, and the move of peacekeeping forces into that territory, “sets the stage for the next steps,” said Michael Kofman, research director in the Russia studies program at CNA, a research organization in Arlington, Virginia.

“In Russia, [it] provides the political-legal basis for the formal introduction of Russian forces, which they’ve already decided to do,” he said. “Secondarily, it provides the legal local basis for Russian use force in defense of these independent Republic’s Russians citizens there. It’s basically political theater.”

What Russia does from here on out is likely to determine how the United States and its NATO allies respond to Russia’s actions. The White House has promised severe sanctions for a Russian invasion, but so far the US and European allies have just sanctioned the two breakaway regions.

Russia has tens of thousands troops along different parts of the border with Ukraine. It is a force capable, and in position, for a much larger-scale operation. “Russia did not need to amass 190,000 troops in order to just recognize the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk,” said Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.

Is this the invasion the world has been watching for?

In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine, backing pro-Kremlin separatists in the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in a conflict that has simmered for years and killed at least 14,000.

Shelling from the Russian-backed separatist side of the border intensified in recent days, with separatist leaders blaming Kyiv — without evidence — for the fighting, and calling on its residents to evacuate. By Monday, Putin had called a meeting with his security council to discuss the situation, then hours later declared these breakaway regions independent, sending in forces for what he described as a “peacekeeping” mission.

 Valentin Sprinchak/TASS via Getty Images
A serviceman of the Donetsk People’s Militia holds a fragment of a shell fired at the front line near the rural town of Staromikhailovka, west of Donetsk, February 15, 2022.

Olga Lautman, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, described this as an invasion. But she also said that it was likely a distraction — laying a foundation for more steps to come. Rep. Liz Cheney tweeted, “Russia has invaded Ukraine,” and Michael McFaul, who served as Obama’s ambassador to Russia, said the same.

Kofman, of CNA, described it as a “renewed invasion,” building on what happened in 2014 and 2015. Analyst Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft wrote, “This would fall far short of invasion. It would mark only a limited escalation in the conflict that has been going on in the Donbas since 2014.”

It’s unclear if this escalation will lead to Russian troops directly engaging Ukrainian ones, or what will happen on the ground in these declared independent regions in the coming days.

But this distinction of what is and isn’t an invasion matters, as it will direct how the United States and its allies will respond. On Monday evening, the White House issued an executive order with sanctions against those doing business in the breakaway republics. But the US has yet to call recent developments an “invasion,” and in summaries of President Joe Biden’s calls with European leaders, the White House described the events as an “ongoing escalation along the borders of Ukraine” and a “clear attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

A White House official told reporters that while the administration did not yet rule out more severe sanctions, it will “assess what Russia does and not focus on what Russia says.

How did it come to this?

The world has been closely watching Russia’s troop movements on the Ukrainian front since November. Late last year, Moscow issued the United States a series of demands. They included some big asks, including a guarantee against Ukraine’s eventual NATO membership and a commitment for NATO to roll back some of its troop deployment in countries recently admitted to the alliance. These were nonstarters for the US and its allies, as they would effectively give Russia veto power over the alliance’s decisions — and over European security.

Still, diplomatic efforts followed, with the US and Russia negotiating for most of January, and European and US leaders cycling through Ukraine and Moscow. Even as these efforts took place, Russia’s mass mobilization of soldiers around Ukraine in recent weeks has signaled Putin’s interest in maintaining the option of a full-fledged land war in Europe.

The reasons for this conflict are complex, rooted in post–Cold War history and Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, and raise larger questions about the place of the US and Russia in the 21st century.

NATO’s eastward expansion to former Soviet republics on the Russian border since the Cold War ended hasn’t helped. Biden’s CIA director, William Burns, who served as ambassador to Russia from 2005 to 2008, had predicted that giving Ukraine NATO membership would “create fertile soil for Russian meddling in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.” (Ukraine isn’t part of NATO and was not expected to join anytime soon, but the country has deepened cooperation with the West since 2014).

 Alexey Nikolsky/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images
Russian President Vladimir Putin signs documents, including a decree recognizing two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent, during a ceremony at the Kremlin in Moscow, February 21, 2022.

But Putin has dismissed Ukrainian sovereignty entirely. In Monday’s speech and in a July 2021 essay, he claimed Ukraine is part of a “unified state” with Russia. The decision to move troops in doesn’t mean Russia is officially annexing Donetsk and Luhansk — yet — but it does escalate efforts to pull the country back into Moscow’s orbit.

Previously, Russia’s plan had been to pressure Ukraine to adopt the 2015 Minsk Agreement that would allow Ukraine to regain formal control over the Donbas rebel-held areas in return for granting their proxies an outsize role over decision-making in the capital of Kyiv, said Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation.

Putin’s actions on Monday signaled a new direction. “Today, [Russia] declared the Minsk agreements dead completely, which means that the era of Russia trying to achieve its objectives through a negotiated return of the Donbas is over,” Charap said. “It means they’re about to get to establish their influence through the use of force.”

What happens next?

Putin is likely one of the only people who knows what comes next. But the diplomatic pathways out of this conflict are closing rapidly, and experts say that Putin looks to be building a pretext he may need to carry out a more robust attack on Ukraine — possibly going so far as threatening the capital of Kyiv. This is the worst-case scenario that the White House has warned about: a war that would cost tens of thousands of lives and potentially spur a mass refugee crisis.

Putin’s escalation in eastern Ukraine occurred the day after French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with the Russian leader for hours, which seemed to point to a possible diplomatic out — specifically, an agreement “in principle” for a summit between Presidents Biden and Putin, after Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov were scheduled to meet Thursday. Russia’s latest actions almost certainly have jeopardized any sort of high-level summit, said Rajan Menon, director of the Grand Strategy program at Defense Priorities.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address Monday that Putin’s incursion was a violation of the country’s “national integrity and sovereignty.”

“We are on our land, we are not afraid of anything and anyone, we don’t owe anything to anyone, and we will not give away anything to anyone. And we are confident of this,” Zelensky said.

Ukraine, though, doesn’t have many options. The Ukrainian army, if it returns fire, risks giving Russia the exact pretext it would need to attack. And experts noted that Russia is already trying hard to manufacture the evidence for that pretext, with or without Ukrainian involvement.

That all feeds into Putin’s recent moves, and what he might do next. Putin’s formal recognition of the independence of the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine created a justification for a formal military presence in the area. Moscow has been circulating fake videos on Russian state media of alleged Ukrainian attacks. Even if some of these videos are poorly produced, US intelligence officials and experts have repeatedly suggested Russia might attempt to manufacture a “false flag” attack as a provocation to justify more robust military force.

“By recognizing the independence of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, Donetsk and Luhansk, the Kremlin has laid the foundations for its ambition to achieve main goals of the regime change and erasing the Ukrainian sovereignty, hence the return of Ukraine into Russia’s sphere of influence,” Seskuria, of RUSI, said.

That hasn’t happened yet. But the question is what — if anything — could move Putin from a course toward a takeover.

As Biden himself noted in 2018 while speaking about Russia at the Council on Foreign Relations, “My dad had an expression, ‘Never back a man in a corner whose only way out is over top of you.’ Well, you know, take a look at Russia now. Where do they go?”

But researchers have also found that melting beneath ice shelves can leave telltale signs above. Ice shelves tend to have a smooth surface, but they get rougher as they melt from below, according to a study in Geophysical Research Letters last year. Measuring surface roughness of ice shelves could become an easy way to gauge how much basal melting is occurring far below. The roughness could be an early warning sign of destabilizing fractures in the ice that could lead to a collapse.

Climate change is squeezing Greenland’s ice sheet from above and below

Greenland is home to the second-largest ice sheet on Earth, accounting for 8 percent of the world’s ice, and it too is melting ever faster. But Greenland’s ice loss is different from Antarctica’s in crucial ways.

One is that almost all of Greenland’s ice is on land, with few sections floating on water. The air over Greenland is also warmer, so melting at the surface of the ice sheet is a much more significant driver of ice loss than at the South Pole. In fact, during the summer, thousands of meltwater lakes and streams form on the surface of the ice sheet.

“The ice sheet is melting fast on the surface, and that’s something we don’t see in Antarctica,” said Poul Christoffersen, a glaciologist at the Scott Polar Research Institute at the University of Cambridge.

Sarah Das from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution walks though a surface meltwater lake on July 16, 2013 on 
the Glacial Ice Sheet, Greenland. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Meltwater forms lakes on the surface of Greenland’s ice sheet, but the ice is also melting below, far out of sight.

The water doesn’t stay on top. It pours through cracks and fissures in the ice, falling more than a mile in some places to the rocky ground below. In a study this week published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Christoffersen and his colleagues revealed that this is melting Greenland’s ice sheet from below.

Like the water that rushes through a hydroelectric dam, falling meltwater carries an immense amount of kinetic energy. That energy causes water to warm as it pools beneath the ice sheet. This in turn triggers basal melting. “The melt rates are actually astounding,” said Christoffersen. He estimated peak basal melt rates on the Greenland ice sheet to be 100 times greater than previous estimates that didn’t include this heat source.

The water sandwiched between the ground and the ice sheet also acts as a lubricant, allowing the ice sheet to slide more easily toward the ocean. But because this water is hidden from view, researchers only have a spotty picture of what’s going on. “We don’t really know a lot about these systems,” Christoffersen said. “Are they large rivers or a myriad of small streams, or even tiny films?”

Researchers estimated that these factors would increase the overall melt rate of Greenland by 8 percent. “It doesn’t sound like much, but anybody [who] has ever had a mortgage at 8 percent, they know it’s pretty painful,” Christoffersen said. That means over the coming years, Greenland’s contributions to sea level rise around the world may be greater than previously thought.

There are still more mysteries locked in the ice

These latest findings further confirm that Earth’s cryosphere — its frozen regions — is in trouble. There are forces at work that scientists are only now starting to appreciate.

A better understanding of melting ice helps us imagine the future and prepare for what’s coming. It could help people decide whether to adapt to rising seas, for example with sea walls and elevating buildings, or retreat from coastal areas altogether. But researchers caution that there’s a lot left to study, and the ice could cross a threshold of no return.

For instance, the thinning ice shelves in West Antarctica could enter a cycle of collapse. They could lose enough mass that they fall apart, and the glaciers they keep on land would flow into the ocean much faster.

“There are theoretical scenarios where it could run away,” Larter said. “Once it starts, it would be very difficult to stop.” These potential tipping points are some of the biggest uncertainties for predicting sea level rise, particularly after 2050.

The other major uncertainty — and potential source of hope — is what humans will do about climate change. Confronted with the ice already lost and the growing threats of rising seas, people could start cutting greenhouse gas emissions drastically enough to stave off some of the worst possibilities for sea level rise.

Or countries could continue on the path toward disaster, allowing the planet to heat up further. For billions of people around the world, the future is on thin ice.

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