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Videos have been one of Kılıçdaroğlu’s main mode of communication. He delivers these low-key speeches from a kind of messy desk, or a kitchen table, directly addressing voters. His messages have tended to be hopeful and optimistic — a marked contrast from the guy he is running against. “He is not engaging with any of that combativeness or any kind of polarizing attitude,” said Gumuscu. “He’s much more at peace with his own identity, his views, his welcoming and inclusive rhetoric.”

That discourse, and that effort to appeal to a broad base of support of the country, may be what ultimately helps this kind of boring, older politician succeed on Sunday. Alongside youth voters, who could play a big role in this election, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) has rallied behind Kılıçdaroğlu and the opposition. The HDP did not formally join the opposition coalition, but Kurds make up a sizable voting chunk in Turkey, and their support could be decisive.

Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu are the two real contenders Sunday; there were two other candidates in the contest, but one dropped out days before the vote. Though his name will likely still appear on the ballot, his departure is seen as giving another boost to Kılıçdaroğlu. Combine that with those voters disillusioned with Erdoğan, or deeply hurt by the economy, and the opposition sees this as its best chance to topple Erdoğan.

Will Erdoğan accept an election loss?

Before we get to that point: Erdoğan is an elections machine. Yes, the scales are tipped in his favor, the opposition doesn’t get much airtime on media. Yes, the economy is in shambles. But Erdoğan is still very popular with a very solid and reliable base, and experts and observers don’t underestimate that he could still win, as fair-ish and square-ish as you can get. “You’ve got six political parties huddled around one opposition candidate trying to defeat one guy,” Ciddi said. “It just shows how powerful Erdoğan is.”

Yet Erdoğan could also lose — though exactly how he will respond is an impossible question to answer. Experts and observers think a lot will depend on how big that loss is. If Kılıçdaroğlu comes away with a clear margin of victory — 5 percent, say — Erdoğan won’t have a lot of room to maneuver. Turkey does have a long tradition of respecting the ballot box, and if it’s not close, Erdoğan has “no option but to admit defeat,” Gürsoy said.

Things get a lot trickier, though, if the election is close, or if the contest moves to a runoff, allowing time for some antics. That is not a guarantee of some sort of malfeasance, but it does make it a greater possibility, because Erdoğan has a lot to lose if he steps aside — as do those with vested interests in Erdoğan staying in power.

But no one really knows what Erdoğan’s playbook could look like, or if it would succeed.

The government could try to disrupt the vote somehow, to preempt a loss, but civil society is strong and mobilized to watch the polls and ensure election integrity. “I have a lot of friends who are not going to be home the entire Sunday, because they are going to work as volunteers at the ballot boxes, and they are going to follow the process and they are there to make sure that the numbers are counted then are sent into the system in the right way,” Altınordu said.

Erdoğan could seek to contest or challenge the results. A lot here may depend on how the institutions respond — although the Supreme Election Council and the country’s top constitutional court will probably be the most important of those bodies. Yet Erdoğan controls the military; he controls the police. Loyalists fill the civil service. All of that is pretty helpful to a leader who, say, wants to find a way to stay in power.

Even so, some experts said that if it really seems as if Erdoğan is doomed, that loyalty may end up being a bit softer than it appears. Bureaucrats and officials may recognize continued support for Erdoğan is a losing proposition.

But that’s not guaranteed, either. Corruption runs deep, and there is an established system of patronage that many might want to keep intact. “Will those people accept Erdoğan’s departure? That’s the other thing; it is not just up to Erdogan, but a lot of people are benefiting from the continuation of the system. So will they want to let Erdoğan go?” Yildirim said.

There is also the question of how Erdoğan’s base reacts to any loss. At the same time, how the opposition and their supporters respond could also determine whether Erdoğan, if he attempts anything, prevails.

Even if Erdoğan is out, undoing his legacy will not be easy

Kılıçdaroğlu and his coalition have promised pro-democratic reforms, including a return to a parliamentary system, to revive an independent press, and to reestablish an independent judiciary.

If they succeed in these elections, and reclaim power, that feat may start to seem quaint compared to the task of governing. Erdoğan spent 20 years centralizing power in himself, and that has fundamentally changed the nature of institutions and government in Turkey. Unraveling that is going to be an almost unfathomably complex challenge.

Turkey’s 600-member parliament will also be elected this year, and it’s not yet clear how much support the opposition coalition will have in parliament to pass constitutional reforms. Plus, if Kılıçdaroğlu wins, he’ll come to power with the support of multiple parties — but keeping that coalition unified in government, with different personalities and ambitions, is not going to be easy.

At the same time, Kılıçdaroğlu will inherit the presidency that Erdoğan created, which means all that authority gets transferred to him. He will have unilateral powers like decrees that he could use to start implementing reforms if parliamentary politics slow things down. But that also will be fraught for a man who promised a return to a more democratic Turkey.

There are also questions of accountability, and how quickly a new government could empower an independent judiciary — and whether, and how intensely, it should seek to hold Erdogan and his government accountable.

And finally, there’s the mess Erdoğan made of the economy. Reversing his wild economic policies may start to revive the Turkish lira and lower inflation, but it will not be painless for the Turkish public.

All of which is to say Kılıçdaroğlu has a real chance of winning Sunday. The reward, though, is one of the toughest jobs in the world.

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