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Netanyahu says the Israeli military incursion will press Hamas to release the hostages. But for now, Israel’s ongoing bombardment of Gaza has seemingly not encouraged Hamas to release hostages. “My analysis is that this Israeli government has in the most cynical way simultaneously written off the lives of the hostages, while using them as political capital in convincing the world that no one can tell them what they can or can’t do in Gaza,” Lara Friedman, president of the Foundation for Middle East Peace, told me. “The hostages will be released despite the government of Israel, not because of it.”

A ceasefire — or more war

The Financial Times was the first international editorial page to call for a ceasefire. UNICEF, the World Health Organization, the World Food Program, the United Nations secretary general, and the Pope now have, too.

Israel categorically rejects these calls. Yet the composite picture is of dwindling international support for Israel’s military campaign, which appears to be putting some pressure on Biden. You can see it in the very gradual shift in action and tone from the administration. Vice President Kamala Harris called for “the urgent need to increase humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza.” Blinken arrived in the Middle East and pushed Netanyahu to temporarily pause its military campaign to allow in humanitarian aid.

There is no easy way to secure a ceasefire. One is only likely to happen if the US and Israel together felt like enough Hamas leaders have been taken out and their military capabilities sufficiently immobilized, and that there is a chance to negotiate some kind of hostage exchange.

While the previously negotiated ceasefires have limited applicability, they do offer faint lessons. One: Third parties like Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey will be integral to the process.

Khoury, the former American diplomat who is now at the Arab Center Washington DC, says Qatar may have more power to influence Hamas than Egypt. Earlier this week, the head of the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence services, traveled to Doha. “If Israel and the US would give the Qataris a carte blanche, they can come up with something,” Khoury told me. “But the US and Israel will have to be ready to accept a continued role for Hamas in some capacity. They could say disarm Hamas. But if they wish to obliterate Hamas, Qatar cannot help with that.”

Two: The US has to play a major role behind the scenes. At some point, Biden’s team is going to spell out more clearly to the Israelis that the US is not going to countenance this anymore.

And, perhaps most importantly, three: There must be a clearer picture of what happens after any ceasefire.

“If there’s no political path to deal with the question of occupation, then whatever Israel will do now, regardless of how long it’s gonna take and how many people gonna kill, is not gonna resolve the issue,” Fishere told me. “It will come back and hit us again, at some point in the future, probably not too far.”

AGA’s efforts go beyond hiring influencers. Many of its campaigns aim to thwart environmental regulation. Last year, AGA hired a consulting firm, Gradient, which has a track record defending tobacco and chemical companies, to dispute research from scientists on gas stove emissions.

Gas utility ratepayers ultimately help pay the tab for these efforts. State utility commissions allow the gas industry to add a fee — usually just pennies to every consumer’s gas bill — so it can recoup its membership fees to the American Gas Association. Though small in scale, these fees add up to an expansive war chest in the tens of millions of dollars annually, according to the utility watchdog group Energy and Policy Institute. Environmental groups have called on FERC, the agency that regulates interstate gas and electricity commerce, to close what they see as a loophole that holds ratepayers captive — using funds meant for consumer education, not “political activity that does not benefit them.” They are also pressuring AGA’s utility members to exit, asking seven CEOs to abandon AGA because it is undermining their companies’ stated climate goals.

In addition to hiring social media personalities and sympathetic scientists, AGA and gas utilities also seem to perpetuate disinformation. When the Department of Energy proposed new efficiency regulations for stoves, a process required by law, AGA suggested this spring it amounted to a de facto ban. In reality, a limited number of older, less efficient models would be phased out after 2027, with no effect on existing gas appliances.

Even so, this June, House Republicans passed a bill prohibiting the federal government from issuing any kind of regulations around gas stoves, which would interfere with the Department of Energy’s ability to set new efficiency standards.

The AGA submitted comments to the Department of Energy in response to a proposed regulation to strengthen stove efficiency standards, with a nod to Child: “Thankfully, Julia Child was able to cook her masterful creations and have her gas range displayed in the Smithsonian’s National Museum of American History before DOE had a chance to ban it.”

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