Daily-Dose

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Though it included $3.5 trillion in spending when it was introduced earlier this year, the bill has been pared down to about $1.75 trillion by moderates in both chambers — and especially by Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), who retain outsized influence over the bill since the budget reconciliation process requires all 50 Democratic votes (and Vice President Kamala Harris to break the tie) to pass an evenly divided Senate. No Senate Republicans are expected to vote in favor of the bill.

Despite being scaled back, the version of the bill that passed the House includes a number of flagship items from the Biden agenda, such as provisions for universal pre-kindergarten, an extension of the child tax credit, $555 billion in climate spending, and a new corporate minimum tax rate.

More controversial among Democrats, the measure also includes a temporary increase to the amount of state and local taxes Americans can deduct from their federal tax filings (called the SALT deduction), though it’s not certain that will survive the Senate.

While it’s not essential that the bill pass before the holiday recess, it’s still a top priority for Democrats, for a number of reasons — both in order to cement Biden’s domestic policy legacy and, potentially, to help boost his sagging poll numbers as inflation raises prices on everything from groceries to fuel.

However, the bill isn’t likely to make it through the Senate without some changes.

Among those possible changes: While the House version includes $200 billion for paid family leave and a provision for Medicaid to cover hearing costs, Manchin has stood firmly against both proposals. The Senate parliamentarian also has final say on a number of elements in the bill that may not conform with the rules of reconciliation, including immigration policy, and any changes will have to go back to the House for final approval after passing the Senate.

The NDAA is coming down to the wire

The NDAA, an annual defense policy bill, has passed Congress every year for the past six decades, including over a veto from former President Donald Trump, which Congress overrode by a wide margin.

This year, the bill is facing a relatively straightforward path — there are no veto threats on the horizon, for one — but Congress still needs to get back on track after a snag regarding Schumer’s attempt to link the NDAA with a bill to counter China’s technological and defense gains.

That bill — the US Innovation and Competition Act, or USICA — passed the House earlier this year and would provide $250 billion in funding for research and development, as well as “to boost the U.S. semiconductor industry,” according to Politico.

Its inclusion with the NDAA proved controversial, however, and the two measures were unlinked earlier this month ahead of a successful procedural vote in the Senate to advance the NDAA process.

That vote ended several months of stalling after the Senate Armed Services Committee approved a version of the bill more than three months ago, and after the House passed its version in September.

But while the ball is now rolling on the NDAA, major policy debates remain before it reaches Biden’s desk: A number of proposed inclusions could have a big impact on US defense policy going forward.

Among those changes is a version of the Military Justice Improvement and Increasing Prevention Act backed by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), which would take prosecution of military sex crimes out of the chain of command, and a provision that would include women in the draft for the first time.

All told, there are also more than 1,000 amendments filed, including one to repeal the 1991 Gulf War and 2002 Iraq War authorizations.

Although that measure has fairly broad support, McConnell warned that repealing the 2002 authorization would give the US less latitude to act in the Middle East.

“I expect a robust debate about that,” McConnell told Politico earlier this month.

In Tierra del Fuego, at the tip of Chile and Argentina, a particularly dramatic novel ecosystem is taking shape. In 1946, beavers were introduced there in a futile attempt to create a fur industry. Instead, the animals proliferated and munched down the region’s Nothofagus — southern beech — forests, creating dams and ponds. “They are these miraculous world builders,” says Ogden, who wrote an essay imagining the beavers not as invaders, but as a diaspora. (Beavers have also been a boon for ducks and other marine species.) The invasive species paradigm, Ogden adds, is devoid of nuance, history, and politics; she prefers a concept that gives expression to the moral complexity of the beavers’ presence in South America, as well as the fact that they had no choice in being moved there.

The beavers should ultimately be removed from the forested areas, Ogden believes, though she doesn’t think we can do so with a clear conscience, and says eradication “seems very unlikely.” But the idea of a diaspora opens up a way of thinking about what we owe the beavers, as opposed to how to expel them. After 75 years in South America, don’t the animals have a claim to living there? What right do we have to exterminate them?

I posed this question to Daniel Simberloff, the prominent invasion biologist. “I don’t believe they’re endangering any of the Nothofagus species,” he acknowledged, noting that there hasn’t been enough study to know what impact the beavers are having on species that require the southern beech forest habitat. Still, “I think it’s a disaster that this native ecosystem is being destroyed and replaced by pastures of introduced plants,” Simberloff says. “Other people may not agree with me.”

Dead trees stand along a stream 
near Ushuaia, Argentina Mario Tama/Getty Images

Dead trees, caused by beavers introduced to the area from Canada in 1946, stand along a stream near Ushuaia, Argentina, on the southern edge of Tierra del Fuego in November 2017.

Even when it’s packaged as objective science, conservation always entails value judgments. One might say that the deaths of 100,000 beavers should count as a “disaster” just as much as the demise of an old-growth forest. Conservationists will have to choose whether to meet ecosystem disruptions like this one with the “war machine” of invasion biology, as Ogden calls it, or to come to terms with a changing world.

For now, the dark unicorn, the thumbnail-sized snail that caught marine ecologist Piper Wallingford’s eye, continues inching up the coast of California. “The question of how they’re getting from one site to another is still one that we can’t answer,” Wallingford says.

There is something humbling in seeing other species’ will to survive in an interconnected world undone by climate change. Though the dark unicorns’ movements elude our understanding, they already know where they need to go.

“The mutations would strongly suggest that it would be more transmissible and that it might evade some of the protection of monoclonal antibodies and convalescent plasma, and perhaps even antibodies that are induced by vaccine,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, told George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s This Week on Sunday.

As Fauci emphasized, however, the vaccines still work, and they are still the best way to protect yourself from the virus.

“I don’t think there’s any possibility that [the omicron variant] could completely evade any protection by vaccine,” Fauci said. “It may diminish it a bit, but that’s the reason why you boost.”

Pressed by @GStephanopoulos on whether vaccines can fight omicron variant, Dr. Fauci says “I don’t think there’s any possibility that this could completely evade any protection by vaccine. It may diminish it a bit, but that’s the reason why you boost.” https://t.co/RB4JDN9jsr pic.twitter.com/rE9IxqwtL3

— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) November 28, 2021

So far, cases of the variant have appeared primarily in young people, leaving them exhausted and with body aches and soreness, according to Dr. Angelique Coetzee, head of the South African Medical Association. “We’re not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted,” she told the BBC.

Compared to its pandemic peak, cases in South Africa are relatively low right now. However, the country has still seen a substantial spike in new infections: On Friday, South Africa reported 2,828 new Covid-19 cases, according to the Associated Press, with as many as 90 percent of those cases potentially caused by the omicron variant.

Reinfection is also a concern with the new variant, according to the journal Nature, but at this early stage, it’s difficult to tell how likely reinfection or breakthrough infections actually are.

“The mutation profile gives us concern, but now we need to do the work to understand the significance of this variant and what it means for the response to the pandemic,” Dr. Richard Lessells, an infectious disease expert at University of KwaZulu-Natal in Durban, South Africa, said at a South African health ministry press conference on Thursday.

Whether the efficacy of treatments such as monoclonal antibodies — and new pill treatments from Pfizer and Merck — will be the same against the omicron variant is also unclear, as is the new variant’s virulence, or how sick it will make those infected, Dr. Leana Wen, a professor of health policy at George Washington University, told CNN’s Jim Acosta on Friday.

3 key Qs about new #covid19 variants:
1) Is it more contagious?
2) Is it more virulent?
3) Is there immune escape?
Lots unanswered re Omicron, but the Biden admin had to act. Imagine the outcry if they did not institute a travel ban & this variant took hold in the US. @Acosta pic.twitter.com/EJvFQuhTR2

— Leana Wen, M.D. (@DrLeanaWen) November 27, 2021

According to the WHO, the earliest known case of the omicron variant was on November 9, and the mutation was first detected November 24 in South Africa, which has an advanced detection system. While the delta variant is still the dominant strain worldwide and currently accounts for 99.9 percent of cases in the US, the discovery of the omicron variant has coincided with a spike in South African cases — a more than 1,400 percent increase over the past two weeks, according to the New York Times.

However, the variant has likely spread far more widely than South Africa, according to Fauci. “When you have a virus that’s showing this degree of transmissibility & you’re having travel-related cases … it almost invariably is going to go all over,” NBC reporter Kaitlan Collins tweeted Saturday, quoting Fauci.

Fauci says the Omicron variant hasn’t been detected in US but he wouldn’t be surprised if it’s already here. “When you have a virus that’s showing this degree of transmissibility & you’re having travel-related cases…it almost invariably is going to go all over,” he tells NBC.

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) November 27, 2021

What are governments doing to contain the new variant?

On Friday, President Joe Biden announced new travel restrictions on eight southern African countries, which will take effect on Monday. Travel from Lesotho, South Africa, Eswatini, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, and Botswana will be restricted, though those restrictions won’t apply to US citizens or green card holders, among other groups.

As Wen said on Friday, travel bans don’t necessarily do much overall to prevent the spread of the virus, but they can buy time for governments to learn more about diseases and variants and better protect their populations.

“I’ve decided that we’re going to be cautious,” Biden told reporters on Friday. “But we don’t know a lot about the variant except that it is of great concern; it seems to spread rapidly.”

Other nations — including the UK, Australia, Israel, France, and Germany — are also restricting travel from southern African nations in an effort to contain the new variant, despite criticism from the South African government.

“This latest round of travel bans is akin to punishing South Africa for its advanced genomic sequencing and the ability to detect new variants quicker,” South Africa’s foreign ministry said in a Saturday statement. “Excellent science should be applauded and not punished.”

As of Saturday the US has not imposed any new travel restrictions on the European or Asian nations where the omicron variant has appeared.

In addition to imminent travel restrictions on a number of southern African nations, Biden urged vaccination and boosters for US citizens as a response to the new variant.

To that end, Biden on Friday also called on wealthy countries with the capability to donate vaccines to do so to low- and middle-income countries, as well as to waive intellectual property rights on current vaccines and treatments so that poorer countries can produce generic versions.

Accessibility isn’t the only issue when it comes to a global vaccination campaign, however. Vaccine hesitancy has proven to be a global problem, including in South Africa, where last week the government asked drug companies to delay delivery of new vaccine doses in response to declining demand, despite less than 30 percent of its adult population being inoculated. Europe is presently struggling with a new outbreak at least partly due to its uneven vaccine uptake and vaccine resistance.

How concerned should I be?

Omicron is likely already in the US, given the loosened restrictions on international travel earlier in the month and that the variant dates at least as far back as November 9. And even if it’s not yet, it soon will be, experts say.

“It’s not going to be possible to keep this infection out of the country,” Fauci told the New York Times. “The question is: Can you slow it down?”

While there are still many unknowns about the omicron variant, experts agree that it’s a troubling development in the Covid-19 pandemic.

“We’ve seen variants come and go, and every month or two we hear about one,” Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told PBS on Friday. “This one is concerning. This one is different. There are a lot of features here that have me and many of us concerned about this.”

What do we know at this point about the omicron variant of the coronavirus?@ashishkjha joins @WmBrangham to provide information and perspective. https://t.co/6SA50U5NPl pic.twitter.com/ToWzGWhkfH

— PBS NewsHour (@NewsHour) November 26, 2021

Delta, the current dominant strain of the virus, shows heightened transmissibility and an ability to evade antibodies, as Vox’s Umair Irfan explained in June. But as with delta, the key to limiting omicron’s spread depends upon human behavior and people’s willingness to engage with proven public health responses.

Stopping the spread also means stopping the possibility of harmful mutations to the virus. Mutations — changes to the makeup of the virus — are bound to happen, and many of them are harmless to people. The more opportunities the virus has to spread, however, the more chance it has to mutate into a variation that spreads faster, is more resistant to antibodies and treatments, or creates worse health outcomes — or even all of these negative traits.

Existing tools, however, should still be effective in stopping omicron — PCR tests appear to detect the variant, according to the WHO, and Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, told NPR on Friday that “there is no data at the present time to indicate that the current vaccines would not work [against omicron].”

Additionally, masking and social distancing both are proven strategies to stop the spread of Covid-19, as are getting vaccinated and getting a booster shot.

Those steps are especially crucial as the holiday season and cold weather bring people together indoors, where transmission occurs. According to the New York Times’s Covid-19 tracker, cases in the US have increased 10 percent over the past two weeks, with daily averages of new cases over 85,000, hospitalizations over 52,000, and about 1,000 deaths each day. As of November 24, almost 75 percent of vaccine-eligible Americans have received at least one vaccine dose.

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