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“Can we have a party this year?”

Boris: pic.twitter.com/CogrVMUMOG

— No Context Brits (@NoContextBrits) December 8, 2021

But Partygate might also be an outlet for other frustrations with Johnson’s government — the easy-to-understand misdeed that resonates in the way other scandals do not.

And Johnson and the Conservative Party have recently been mired in “sleaze” allegations, from questions about lucrative contracts the government made during the pandemic to a fine the Tories now face over a donation for a pricey renovation of the prime minister’s residence — which Johnson claimed he knew nothing about, until a recent report showed that, actually, he probably did.

“It’s very easy for people to draw contrasts with their own life. It’s not like a procurement scandal, where you quickly have to explain the rules officials should have followed before people’s eyes glaze over,” Chris Hanretty, a professor of politics at Royal Holloway, University of London, wrote in an email. “Most people have been to a Christmas party, and most people had to cut that stuff out last year. It’s a really clear case of public officials violating rules which were supposed to apply to everyone.”

Contrast the Downing Street get-together with another issue that Johnson’s government received criticism for: its handling of the case of Owen Paterson, an MP who was found to have received money to lobby the government on behalf of two companies. But it was really the handling of the case that created the controversy. Some of Paterson’s colleagues got behind a plan to pause Paterson’s punishment until they could overhaul ethics rules — a move Johnson himself backed. But those efforts got furious pushback from the public, and from many members of Parliament; Johnson’s government was forced to back away from the plan, and Paterson resigned.

Beyond these scandals, the pandemic itself is adding to the public’s turn against Johnson. Right now, Johnson is warning about a “huge spike” in coronavirus cases, driven by the omicron variant, and trying to put in place additional safety measures. The timing couldn’t be worse.

 Matt Dunham/AP

Protesters demonstrate against Covid-19 vaccine passports and other policies outside the Houses of Parliament in London on December 13.

“We’re at a stage in the UK where we’re a little bit worried about the omicron variant, and people are beginning to worry about what it might mean — could Christmas be affected or something again?” said Alice Lilly, senior researcher at the Institute for Government, a nonpartisan think tank in the UK. “I suppose, then, for people to hear about allegations about what might or might not have been happening last Christmas in government — I think that just resonates probably a little bit more with people.”

The British public is not under the same level of restrictions as last year, but the fatigue and frustration are taking a toll. The pandemic, along with some of the aftereffects of Brexit, has hurt the UK economy, which is also seeing price increases and supply shortages. And now visions of boozing Downing Street staffers are dancing in voters’ heads. “In that context, the sorts of scandals that wouldn’t have touched Boris Johnson previously are having more purchase because I think voters are tired, and they’re not very happy,” said Will Jennings, a professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southampton.

It’s too early to be talking about Johnson’s downfall, but there are some warning signs

The big question about Partygate — though a terrible one for a pub quiz — is whether this is a temporary blip for Johnson or whether it reveals real electoral trouble. And if it does, what does that mean for Johnson’s leadership of the Conservative Party and his standing as prime minister?

The first test for Johnson was Tuesday’s votes on Covid-19 “plan B” regulations, which included new face mask regulations, work-from-home rules, and “Covid certifications,” which are basically vaccine requirements to enter certain indoor public spaces, like nightclubs and concerts.

Conservative backbenchers (those MPs not in government) have previously bristled against Johnson’s restrictive Covid-19 measures, and Johnson has faced revolts from Conservative MPs in Parliament over some of these rules before. (It has echoes of some US Republicans’ rejection of things like mask and vaccine mandates.)

But Tuesday’s defeat is extraordinarily damaging because the revolt was enormous, with about 100 Conservative MPs defying the government on vaccine certifications. These kinds of uprisings aren’t supposed to happen.

“That’s not enough on its own to bring about the downfall of the government or anything like that,” Lilly said, before Tuesday’s vote. But, she added: “It’s definitely a warning sign.”

Another warning sign may reveal itself this Thursday. There is a by-election in North Shropshire, for the seat previously held by the now-disgraced Paterson. The seat is reliably Conservative; Paterson won in 2019 by more than 23,000 votes. But opponents have made sleaze and transparency a centerpiece of the campaign, and the Christmas party shenanigans add to that shadow. “A loss would indeed be disastrous, but even a narrow victory might still show Conservative MPs that they would fare better under an alternative leader,” Hanretty said.

 Christopher Furlong/Getty Images
North Shropshire by-election Conservative candidate Neil Shastri-Hurst takes part in a hustings event with other candidates for the seat on December 7 at St John’s Methodist Church on Whitchurch, England.

It would be an astonishing development given that just two years ago, Johnson led the Conservatives to a dominating and transformative political victory, and until very recently, the Conservatives’ grip on the polls seemed impregnable. Labour and other opposition parties are trying to home in on the message that “it’s one rule for us, another rule for them,” a kind of populist sentiment against out-of-touch elites that also helped define Johnson’s brand of Brexit-y populism. “In some ways, Boris Johnson campaigned as a populist, won in the conservative leadership, and the general election as a populist against the liberal elite establishment blocking Brexit,” Jennings said. “Now [he is] having those guns of populism turned on himself.”

It is still too soon to know whether that rhetoric will stick long term, but at least for now, Labour has overtaken the Conservatives in some recent polls, a remarkable turnaround and its biggest since 2014. There’s still a long way to go — Johnson’s come back from a few public defeats — but the cracks in his leadership are beginning to show. A lot of his support from his own party came from the perception that he was popular with the public. But if Johnson and the Conservatives still see support dropping into 2022 — long past Christmas party season — Johnson’s troubles may be much larger than last year’s parties at Downing Street.

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