Daily-Dose

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Alexey Kovalyov

We have no idea. What these polls reflect is how many people actually tune in to state media, which tells them what to think and what to say.

Even the poll I mentioned, like I said, it doesn’t ask people about a “war,” it asks them if they support a “special military operation” in Ukraine. And then it asks what you think the goals of this special military operation [are] and gives you choices like “The denazification of Ukraine” or “The protection of Russian-speaking peoples in Ukraine.” None of them reflect what’s happening in Ukraine. They’re just letting people choose between the various talking points being pounded by the state.

Sean Illing

What’s it like to be a journalist right now in Russia? And just to be clear, I’m not asking about the hacks and the nihilists shilling for the state. I’m asking about the journalists and the writers who object to this totalitarian nightmare, but they also face enormous risks if they break ranks.

Are they finding ways to tell the truth without telling the truth? Or are they all just getting the hell out of there while they still can?

Alexey Kovalyov

I frankly don’t know many journalists who are still there. I know a few people who still remain in Russia and they made a conscious decision to stay, and I admire their bravery. I wish I was in a position to make that decision, but I didn’t. My family begged me to get out. My own mother cried with joy when I called from across the border to tell her that I was safe.

But it’s not like all this happened overnight. We at Meduza were declared foreign agents last year by the government, and that was the government painting a huge target on our backs, calling us traitors and enemies of the people. So this has been a long time coming. We’ve been preparing for this moment for several years. It’s not unexpected. What is unexpected is how quickly it happened.

Sean Illing

It does seem like there’s been a shift in the regime’s approach to media and propaganda. For a long while, Russia has “flooded the zone” and bombarded the population with so many contradictory accounts of reality that they weren’t sure what to believe, or they were too cynical to believe anything. But now it’s full Orwellian control of reality, and that’s a much heavier lift because it’s not about undermining consensus, which is easy; it’s about enforcing one.

Alexey Kovalyov

Yeah, absolutely. There has definitely been a shift. And I have to be honest, there were a handful of people here who have been warning about this for a long time, who were telling people like me that this was going to be a fascist dictatorship one day, and we’ve been dismissing these people. We were like, “Come on, Putin is a cynic, he’s evil in so many ways, but at least he’s a rational guy. All he wants to do is get himself insanely rich. He’s not going to do anything really drastic.”

But we were all fucking wrong. The alarmists were right all along, and almost every one of them is either dead or in jail or exiled.

Sean Illing

People outside Russia are seeing the videos of people protesting on the streets in Moscow and St.  Petersburg, and I think a lot of us want to believe that Putin can’t contain this, that there will be a revolt. But I worry that that’s mostly wishful thinking. Are you convinced that this will put a real dent in Putin’s regime?

Alexey Kovalyov

No, not really. What you’re seeing from these protesters on the streets is possibly the bravest thing I’ve seen, and it’s mostly women who are facing real violence and serious prison time. These people are getting the shit beat out of them by the police. They’re the bravest people in Russia right now because they know what they’re facing.

But we’re talking about a few thousand people in a country of over 140 million people. It’s not nearly enough to even put a dent in Putin’s regime. What it’s really going to take is the silent majority, or Putin’s passive electorate, who for all these years have just been doing what they’re told, they’re going to have to make a stand. But I have no idea what it would take for these people to wake up. I really have no idea.

All I know is that we’re in uncharted waters. All these major foreign media outlets, like the New York Times and the BBC, are fleeing Moscow. That’s never happened. The New York Times has had a bureau in Moscow throughout the entire 20th century, including three revolutions and two world wars and the entire Cold War. But now Moscow isn’t safe for the New York Times. I really don’t have the words to describe how unpredictable this situation is.

Sean Illing

Again, I don’t want to dreamcast here, but is it possible that Putin isn’t as popular as he appears? Is it possible that there’s an undercurrent of discontent waiting to be tapped?

Alexey Kovalyov

Maybe. It’s so hard to know. You can’t trust any of the polling data, especially the polling run by state-owned organizations. The state controls the entire media apparatus in Russia, and that’s incredibly hard to puncture. We just don’t know what people are thinking or what they truly believe or what’s possible. No one knows.

Sean Illing

As the pain of this war becomes more real, as the soldiers start returning home in coffins, as the economy continues to crater, maybe reality will come crashing through the fog of propaganda.

Alexey Kovalyov

I guess we’ll find out, won’t we? We’ve been interviewing parents of Russian soldiers, and not professional volunteer soldiers, but conscripts, people who were drafted into the army. These are 20-year-olds who, after a few months of boot camp, were shipped off to the front line and told this was all a training exercise. Many of these soldiers have been captured by the Ukrainians, and their parents are absolutely crushed because they were told their kids were at training drills. So there’s a lot of confusion.

But I’m not sure reality will come crashing through, or that it’ll happen soon enough. Sanctions move slow. Even though this military campaign has been such an obvious failure, unless someone in Putin’s close circle convinces him to pull back, which is unlikely, this is going to drag on and more people will die.

Who knows what that will mean? Will it spark a nationwide revolt? I don’t know. Here’s what I know: The Russian government has been preparing for this moment for a long time, and they’ve built up a police state to crush any signs of resistance with extreme violence.

But the idea that individual oligarchs could sway Putin now is a misunderstanding of modern Russia, said Ben Judah, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell In and Out of Love with Vladimir Putin. “That’s how Russia operated 15 or 20 years ago,” Judah said, “not how Russia operates today.”

Reining in Russia’s oligarchs was something Putin promised during his first campaign for president, and he didn’t wait long to start. In 2003, Putin arrested and jailed Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who owned a 78 percent stake in Russia’s massive Yukos oil company and was at the time Russia’s wealthiest man. Khodorkovsky was officially charged with financial crimes, but he was also funding Putin’s opposition parties.

The example Putin set by arresting Khodorkovsky was clear: “The oligarchs essentially realized that they owned their wealth only as long as [Putin] wanted them to own it. That changed their entire approach to politics. It also increased their motivation to get more wealth outside of Russia, to get as much as possible offshore, where it would be safe,” Bullough told Recode.

Meanwhile, a new kind of oligarch gained power: the siloviki, which mainly describes businessmen who have connections to the Federal Security Service, the police, and the military. The siloviki were instrumental in Putin’s consolidation of power, serving as his muscle. They’ve become extremely wealthy thanks to their proximity to the president, creating a class of “silovarchs” who are even more dependent on Putin than oligarchs who accumulated their wealth in the 1990s.

All Russian oligarchs’ power and wealth is tenuous, and they know it. That’s why the limited number who have spoken up so far about the war are ones who hold foreign passports or reside outside of Russia. Some oligarchs, and even their children, have called for peace — but without explicitly condemning Putin.

Oleg Deripaska, a Russian industrialist currently worth a little over $2 billion, according to Forbes, called peace “very important.” “The whole world will be different after these events and Russia will be different,” he wrote on Telegram. He was sanctioned by the US government back in 2018 for his ties to Putin in the wake of allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 US election.

Mikhail Fridman, founder of Alfa Bank, called the invasion a tragedy during a press conference. But when asked about using his influence to put pressure on the Kremlin, Fridman responded, “You should understand that it’s a very sensitive issue,” and said that he could not put his partners and staff at risk by commenting on Putin. He was sanctioned by the EU on February 28.

Evgeny Lebedev, who owns British newspapers the Independent and the Evening Standard, wrote an op-ed in the Standard imploring Putin to stop the war. Lebedev holds dual Russian and British citizenship; he’s also a member of the British peerage. He has not been sanctioned.

Again, these measured reactions from oligarchs shouldn’t come as a surprise. Stanislav Markus, a University of South Carolina professor who has extensively researched Russia’s oligarchs, told Recode that direct criticism of Putin would be “a pretty dangerous position to hold.”

“When it came to this decision to go all-in in Ukraine, Putin took the decision essentially alone,” said Judah, the Atlantic Council senior fellow. “Over the last few years, Putin has become increasingly distant from the old so-called inner circle and the Russian elite in general.”

Judah cited a scene from the security council meeting Putin called on February 21, shortly before invading Ukraine. Sergey Naryshkin, director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, stammered when Putin asked if he supported recognizing the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, two Ukrainian territories that have been controlled by pro-Russia rebels for almost a decade.

“The way Putin spoke to him made him so scared that he forgot what topic was being discussed,” Judah said. “So if Sergey Naryshkin is that frightened of Putin, seemingly that distanced from him, there’s very little chance for those businessmen to simply walk in and stop him.”

The narrative that Putin’s siloviki — or other oligarchs — could meaningfully dissent is “wishful thinking,” Judah said.

“[The sanctions] may indeed cause grumbling and dissatisfaction and fear in the political system,” he continued. But when it comes to what might happen with Putin, he said we should think about “what happens to dictators, not what happens to strongmen with governments.”

How Putin’s war could influence power in the long run

If this war truly was Putin’s decision alone, then he’s both in control and in isolation.

Squeezing Russia’s oligarchs may not lead to Putin doing an about-face in a war that he’s already indicated he’s willing to sacrifice so much for. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it won’t have an impact later. These sanctions will have aftershocks; if anything, they reveal to the Russian oligarchy the limits of their power and how their fortunes are tied up with an authoritarian who’s begun closing them off from almost the rest of the world in pursuit of war.

How they’ll react is an open question.

Markus, whose research investigates what Russia’s oligarchs want and how they try to influence the government, told Recode that part of the reason they haven’t pushed back often against their government is that the existing global financial playground lets them keep so much capital offshore. With so much of their wealth stashed outside of the Kremlin’s grip, there’s less of a pressing need to demand that the Kremlin reform.

Prolonged sanctions could increase desire among Russia’s elite for institutional change, even as achieving it remains difficult. Over the years, Putin has shown them how easy it is to fall out of his favor, and the dire consequences of that.

“If before, they thought, ‘Whatever the Kremlin does, I still have my profitable trade with the United States or Europe or whomever, I don’t need to get political in Russia,’ now, more and more, they’re being pushed against the wall,” Markus said.

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