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A big factor to consider is not just the sea surface temperature but the temperature gradient between different parts of the ocean. And then we have to consider the air above the water.

One of the effects of El Niño is that it introduces more wind shear above the Atlantic. Between 5,000 feet and 35,000 feet above the ocean, the wind can drastically change direction and speed. These sudden wind shifts can rip up nascent tropical storms or extinguish them before they even form in the first place.

El Niño tends to have the opposite effect over the Pacific. The water in this ocean is also much warmer than normal, but the air is more stable than over the Atlantic. In El Niño years, the central and eastern Pacific tend to see more active hurricanes. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Calvin passed just south of Hawaii.

Scientists have a new way to stay ahead of one of the most dangerous aspects of hurricanes

Last September, Hurricane Ian hit Florida’s Gulf Coast at Category 4 strength, with 155 mph sustained winds, driving a storm surge as high as 18 feet. Deaths from disasters in general have been declining around the world for nearly a century, but Ian defied that trend and killed at least 149 people. It was the deadliest storm to hit the mainland US since Katrina in 2005 and the deadliest in Florida since 1935.

A big part of why Hurricane Ian was so dangerous was that it was so hard to predict. These days, forecasters can map an accurate path of a hurricane 72 hours ahead or more, buying valuable time to evacuate, compared to 20 years ago, when such predictions could only come out 24 hours ahead of the storm. But Ian followed a less-traveled route for hurricanes that was harder to model, and small deflections in its path led to bigger swings in where it would make landfall. Local officials waited too long to order evacuations because they thought that early forecasts showed that their counties were outside the most dangerous region of the storm.

Another force behind Hurricane Ian’s destruction was that it underwent rapid intensification. That’s when a hurricane gains more than 35 mph in wind speed over 24 hours. The sudden speedup can turn a threatening storm into a monster, leaving little time for people to get out of the way. Ian actually rapidly intensified twice during its rampage.

“You can go from a tropical storm at night to a hurricane in the morning,” said Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, who leads NOAA’s hurricane modeling team.

As average temperatures rise, some scientists expect that the conditions for rapid intensification will become more common.

A motorcyclist rides past debris piled up from a destroyed home after the passage of Hurricane Ian on Matlacha Island in Lee County, Florida, on November 7, 2022. Giorgio Vera/AFP via Getty Images
Hurricane Ian was the deadliest hurricane to strike the US mainland since Hurricane Katrina.

Forecasters are starting to get their hands around this phenomenon. This year, NOAA is trying out the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, which could anticipate hurricane tracks as far as seven days out and provide more useful predictions about rapid intensification. Gopalakrishnan said this model was a huge feat. NOAA has been working on this for decades, teaming up across its various offices and with outside partners to gradually improve their predictions.

The tricky thing is that it’s really hard to see inside a major storm like a typhoon. Satellite images only zoom in so far, so scientists often look into the storms themselves. That can require flying manned aircraft into hurricanes, but as of late, NOAA has been using more autonomous vehicles that can fly and float. That has given scientists a better read of the mechanism that leads hurricanes to spool up quickly.

“We’ve reached a point where we are starting to understand how storms undergo rapid intensification,” Gopalakrishnan said. The HAFS model creates what he described as a “telescoping nest” that lets scientists zoom into particular parts of the storm to see its boundaries and how its intensity is changing. The goal though is to make sure the forecasts are useful for people so they can plan to protect themselves and their property, and that means first figuring out where cyclones will land. And while HAFS also improves storm track forecasts, it’s not perfect, and making these projections better is still a high priority. “It’s location, location, location,” Gopalakrishnan said.

All the while, the planet’s climate is continuing to change, amplifying many of the destructive elements of storms like rainfall and storm surge. Even as predictions get better, researchers warn there may be more surprises in store.

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