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Some countries, seeing the brightening spotlight of COP26, have begun to announce more aggressive climate goals in the runup to the meeting. This week, the UK put out its road map for achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the middle of the century. But the most scrutiny will fall on the world’s largest emitters — China, the US, and India — and whether they will take tangible steps to curb their pollution. Biden and the US delegation are now counting on Congress to pass a suite of climate policies to strengthen their hand at the negotiating table.

What’s on the agenda for COP26?

The Paris climate agreement aims to solve a global crisis, but its bureaucratic constraints have frustrated the process.

Joining the accord is voluntary, which means any signatory can leave if they want to, as the US did briefly last year. And even the countries that stay in have the freedom to set their own goals for cutting greenhouse gases. If they miss their targets, there is no penalty.

It may seem odd that an agreement to save the world from itself would have so few firm rules. However, the Paris Agreement was the culmination of two decades of stalled diplomacy, and many countries shot down stronger language around binding greenhouse emissions targets, oversight, and punishments.

The Paris Agreement is thus a delicate balancing act, accomplishing its goals mainly with nudges and incentives. It aims to steer everyone — developing countries, oil economies, regional rivals, island states threatened by sea level rise — toward a common objective, and that’s a very tall order.

Here are some of the key items on the agenda for COP26 (officially known as the 26th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change).

Getting countries to do more: Under the Paris Agreement, every country is required to publish a climate change target and a route for getting there, or what’s called a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The first round of NDCs put forward in 2015 were clearly inadequate, putting the world on course for roughly 2.7°C of warming by the end of the century.

Climate leaders hoped that in the runup to COP26, countries would roll out new commitments for the coming decade, as well as long-term strategies for eliminating emissions by the middle of the century. As of October 21, 114 countries and the European Union have submitted new NDCs. Some major emitters like the US, United Kingdom, and China have proposed or submitted stronger targets. But others, like Russia, Brazil, and Australia, did not meaningfully ramp up their goals. Still others like India have yet to submit a new NDC.

The leaders at COP26 will try to create carrots and sticks to motivate the laggards and holdouts to take more aggressive action. Many countries are now adamant that the limit for warming this century should be 1.5°C, now that many countries have already suffered the tolls of disasters worsened by climate change — a sign that 2°C of warming would be far worse.

According to the IPCC, the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C includes 2 extra inches of sea level rise, putting an extra 10 million people at risk of coastal flooding and related problems. Two degrees of warming would double the number of people exposed to extreme heat at least once every five years. This extra warming would also lead to greater declines in fisheries, crop production, and habitats for vital species like insect pollinators.

“Because of that new science, I think certainly in the climate community, 1.5°C de facto is now what everyone is talking about,” Mountford said.

Two painters,
 one on a ladder, create a mural on the side of a brick building titled “Our Climate Is Changing.” Half of the mural 
depicts flowers and blue sky, the other half shows fire and black clouds. Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images
Artists paint a mural on a wall next to the Clydeside Expressway near the Scottish Events Centre, where COP26 will take place.

Technology for cutting carbon out of the economy, like renewable energy, has also improved since the Paris Agreement was signed. Some countries and many activists argue that a tougher target is essential to taking advantage of these improvements and that mitigation needs to begin right away.

This conference has to signal a “shift from making commitments to actually taking action,” said Marcene Mitchell, senior vice president of climate change at the World Wildlife Fund. Countries not only need to make bigger promises, Mitchell added, they need to match them with actual policies.

International carbon markets: One of the ways countries are aiming to meet their climate change goals is by pricing carbon dioxide emissions and creating accounting mechanisms for reducing them. That can take the form of credits or offsets that are traded with other countries. Under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, wealthier countries can compensate for their higher emissions by financing clean energy in developing countries or helping restore carbon-absorbing ecosystems like rainforests.

The trouble is that if these markets are not designed well, they may simply end up as a way for wealthier countries to buy their way out of reducing their own emissions. Without proper verification, the credits may not deliver the carbon reductions they promised. In past climate meetings, countries like the US, Australia, and Brazil pushed for language in these rules that would grant them more flexibility. However, most other countries found these provisions unacceptable because they would weaken the program. This issue forced several previous meetings to go over their allotted times. It remains unresolved and may not be settled at COP26.

Loss and damage: The core injustice of climate change is that the people who contributed least to the problem stand to suffer the most. Though not strictly part of the Paris Agreement, a key part of the discussion at COP26 will be around how to compensate countries facing the impacts of climate change today, from rising sea levels eroding shores to more devastating extreme weather.

Securing this funding is a huge priority for many countries, particularly island countries and those with small economies. However, wealthier countries that have historically emitted the most greenhouse gases have resisted language that would force them to chip in and instead advocated softer language that would make these wealth transfers voluntary. And so far, countries have not made much progress in closing the gap. “It’s a contentious issue, it’s a big issue, it’s a complicated issue,” said Mitchell. “This is my own personal view: I don’t think that will get resolved here at this COP.”

Climate finance: It’s expensive to build resilience to climate change and shift from fossil fuels toward clean energy, particularly for developing countries. The UNFCCC created the Green Climate Fund in 2010 to finance these projects around the world with grants and loans. It includes programs like developing sustainable agriculture in Thailand and building cooling facilities for residents in countries like Bangladesh facing extreme heat.

Governments meeting at COP26 set a target of deploying $100 billion a year in international climate financing through programs like the Green Climate Fund by 2020. But so far, countries haven’t contributed enough to meet the target, falling short by $20 billion in 2018, the most recent estimate available.

More international climate financing would help drive down greenhouse gas emissions from developing countries and motivate them to set more ambitious goals. However, some countries now say that even $100 billion isn’t enough. A negotiator representing African countries, for example, told Reuters that international climate financing should be scaled up to $1.3 trillion by 2030.

All eyes are on the United States

The US has the dubious distinction of being the only country to complete a 360-degree turn on the Paris Agreement. It helped convene the accord in 2015, yet former President Trump withdrew the US in 2020. President Biden signed an executive order in January to rejoin and the US was formally back in the Paris accord in February.

Since the US is the wealthiest country in the world and the largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases, it plays a prominent role in climate negotiations and has an even greater obligation to act on the crisis. At COP26, the US not only has to make up for lost time, it also has to rebuild trust with other countries and show that it’s willing to be more ambitious.

“There is this sense of exhaustion about how long is it going to take for one of the biggest emitters in the world to do its fair share,” Rachel Cleetus, the clean energy policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, told Vox’s Rebecca Leber earlier this month.

 Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
President Joe Biden delivers remarks at a virtual summit on climate at the White House in April. The president pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2030.

In April, Biden announced that the US was adopting a new climate goal: cutting emissions within the decade by 50 to 52 percent, compared to the US emissions peak in 2005. That’s a big step up from the previous target, which aimed for 26 to 28 percent reductions by 2025. US emissions have been declining since 2005, with a precipitous drop in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. However, greenhouse gases are already starting to rebound.

President Biden has already used some of his executive power to drive actions on climate change, like setting targets for electric vehicle production, limiting new oil and gas production on public lands, and pushing financial institutions to incorporate climate risk into their assessments.

But the fate of the largest parts of Biden’s climate agenda is in the hands of Congress, not the White House.

Democrats in Congress have been hurrying to put these plans into action with the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the Build Back Better Act. These bills, as originally written, could reduce US greenhouse gas emissions by 45 percent over the next decade. With midterm elections looming next year, Democrats may not get another chance for years to advance major climate change legislation.

“If that’s done before COP, I think that would actually give a number of countries quite a bit of reassurance that what the administration is committed to will be delivered,” said Mountford. “If it’s not quite done before COP, I think people will still be viewing them with some skepticism.”

But the US delegation may arrive in Glasgow with a weaker hand than they had hoped for because the legislation is already being whittled down as Democrats are forced to compromise in the Senate. “For [the US] to have credibility and leadership, we need to not just come with a statement and commitment, but actually the money to pay for it,” Mitchell said.

What happens now, first in Congress and then in Glasgow, will help shape the ambitions of countries around the world as they meet the challenge of climate change. It’s not a stretch to say that the future of our planet as we know it is at stake.

A tuskless female elephant in Mozambique’s Gorongosa National Park.

While scientists have known about this trend for a while — it’s not uncommon to see tuskless elephants in places with lots of poaching — the study provides strong evidence that the trait is rooted in genetics, something previous research failed to do, said Andrew Hendry, an evolutionary biologist at McGill University who was not involved in the research. In other words, the study shows evolution in action.

The results also offer a vivid example of how animals can quickly adapt under human pressures such as poaching and climate change. Past research has shown that creatures can evolve new colors, shapes, and even behaviors to better tolerate the increasingly inhospitable world we’ve created for them. The problem is that even rapid evolution has its limits — and many species are already on the brink.

How a civil war caused elephants to lose their tusks

Social conflict and the decline of wildlife are often closely linked, the authors of the Science study write. Few locations reveal a clearer picture of this than Gorongosa National Park, a protected area in central Mozambique where Shane Campbell-Staton, an evolutionary biologist at Princeton University, led the research.

During a 16-year civil war that began in 1977, poachers on both sides of the conflict slaughtered a huge number of elephants in the park for their ivory, which they sold to finance their efforts, according to the study. Over that period, the number of large herbivores (like elephants) at Gorongosa fell by more than 90 percent.

 Courtesy of Shane Campbell-Staton

The researchers have to tranquilize elephants in order to collect their DNA.

That’s not all that changed in the park. Between 1970 and 2000 — a period that encompassed much of the impact of the long-running war — the portion of female elephants without tusks nearly tripled. The researchers’ best guess was that it had something to do with genetics: A trait visible only in females suggests it might be associated with changes to genes on the X chromosome. (Female elephants have two X chromosomes, whereas males have an X and a Y chromosome.)

This study all but proved it. The first bit of evidence was that female calves born from tuskless mothers were often themselves tuskless, indicating that the trait is passed on from one generation to the next. “A heritable trait is pretty strong evidence of a genetic basis,” said Robert Pringle, a biology professor at Princeton and a co-author of the study.

The authors also identified a couple of regions in the animals’ DNA that appear to be associated with a lack of tusks. Sure enough, “There is strong evidence for mutations on a particular region of the X chromosome,” Pringle said. Mutations, or variations in an organism’s DNA, are an important engine of evolution. If they result in traits that are beneficial — such as tusklessness, for certain populations of female elephants — they’re more likely to get passed to the next generation and drive evolution.

Remarkably, one of the genes associated with tusklessness is also present in humans, where it’s linked to a condition that limits the growth of our lateral incisors. These are essentially the same teeth that, in elephants, evolved into tusks millions of years ago.

What makes this study so fascinating is that it offers evidence of rapid evolution in an animal that has a pretty long lifespan — 50 or 60 years — in the wild, said Hendry and Fred Allendorf, a professor emeritus at the University of Montana who was not involved in the research.

Studies of elephants “rarely can say anything about the genetic basis” of tusklessness, Hendry said. For years, researchers assumed that rapid evolution was common only in small species with short life cycles. Given these results, “Nobody can argue that evolution isn’t occurring, even in the biggest and longest-lived species,” he added.

Should all elephants ditch their tusks?

In theory, it’s advantageous to be born without tusks in areas where poachers are active, Hendry said. But tusklessness also has its downsides. Elephants need their tusks to dig, lift objects, and defend themselves. The hulking incisors are not useless appendages.

The genes that seem to make female elephants tuskless also appear to prevent mothers from giving birth to male calves — that’s why all the tuskless elephants in the park are female, Pringle said. (Some mothers did give birth to males with tusks, who likely didn’t inherit the gene.) Over time, a shift in the sex of elephants could have consequences for population growth.

    <img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
cdn.com/thumbor/0YUD1I_p4WWHQZOfzUPrsF7hMJE=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox- cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22944447/GettyImages_453370812.jpg" /> Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty Images
Two male elephants spar in the Masai Mara grassland in Narok, Kenya.

There are also potential costs to African grasslands, which are among the rarest and most biodiverse ecosystems on Earth, the study authors write. By turning over soil in search of food and minerals and gouging trees with their tusks, African savanna elephants prevent forests from growing too dense and help maintain grasslands. That’s why they’re considered “engineers” of the ecosystem. If they lose their tusks, a whole web of plants and animals may feel the impact.

“This evolutionary change could have massive cascading ecological influences,” Hendry said.

How humans are changing animals

Humans have shaped the environment around them for centuries, down to the very genetics of wild plants and animals. The tuskless elephants in this study are just one example in a long list of species that have adapted in response to the pressures we’ve placed on them.

“Human-induced changes are creating conditions for fast biological evolution — so rapid that its effects can be seen in only a few years or even more quickly,” a team of scientists wrote in a landmark intergovernmental biodiversity report in 2019.

 iStockphoto via Getty Images

Light and dark forms of the peppered moth.

One of the earliest and most famous examples is the peppered moth in the UK. Before the Industrial Revolution, most of the moths flitting about England were white with speckles of black, which helped them blend in with lichen and tree bark. Then, in the mid- to late-1800s, coal-fired power plants and mills started belching dark soot that blackened trees in parts of the country. White moths stood out against the newly dark background and were more likely to be eaten by birds, whereas the once-rare black ones were camouflaged and survived. In a matter of years, some populations of peppered moths inverted from white to mostly black. The phenomenon was deemed “industrial melanism.”

Scientists have measured similar changes in recent decades. One study from 2003, for example, found that bighorn sheep in Alberta, Canada, evolved smaller horns in roughly 30 years. The reason? Trophy hunters tend to target rams with larger horns. Another study, published in November 2020, suggests that a type of lily found in the mountains of China is evolving less-colorful leaves so it doesn’t stand out in regions where it’s harvested as a traditional herb.

 Niu et al./Current Biology
In regions where a kind of lily called Fritillaria delavayi is heavily harvested, the plant has adapted better camouflage (see images C and D).

Rising temperatures from climate change also appear to be making some animals, including birds and mammals, smaller, as I previously reported. Smaller bodies cool off more easily than larger ones, so shrinking could be an adaptive response in warming environments (though it’s not yet clear whether these particular changes are genetic).

Then there are species changing in less conspicuous ways. In Japan, populations of mamushi snakes that are heavily hunted for their perceived medicinal and nutritional benefits seem to be better at evading predators, compared to snake populations that hunters have ignored. Many species, including plants and insects, have evolved resistance to pesticides, which is why farmers often use several at once and chemical companies must constantly develop new solutions.

There’s something like hope behind the idea of rapid evolution. Humans are deforesting, polluting, and exploiting the Earth at an alarming pace, yet in some cases, animals are adapting to live another day. There’s even a term for this resilience, Hendry said: “evolutionary rescue.”

Still, this evolution, as fast-tracked as it may be, still often isn’t quick enough to overcome the many threats species face. And because adaptations can also come with drawbacks, there are untold and unpredictable consequences for the ecosystem at large.

Plus, not all species can adapt their way out of crisis. Consider rhinoceroses, which poachers kill for their horns. Three of the five rhino species have been hunted almost to extinction, yet none appear to have evolved hornlessness.

In Gorongosa National Park, the ecosystem has largely recovered from the war, Pringle said. Poaching has subsided, but tusks haven’t bounced back. After the war, the park successfully rebuilt its infrastructure, ramped up law enforcement, and put social development programs into place. The presence of tuskless elephants is now akin to a scar from an injury that’s healed, Pringle said. So while evolution may have helped these creatures survive, the real remedy is putting an end to the underlying forces that triggered it in the first place.

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