Objectives: The COVID-19 has led to many studies of seroprevalence. A number of methods exist in the statistical literature to correctly estimate disease prevalence in the presence of diagnostic test misclassification, but these methods seem to be less known and not routinely used in the public health literature. We aimed to show how widespread the problem is in recent publications, and to quantify the magnitude of bias introduced when correct methods are not used. Methods: We examined a sample of recent literature to determine how often public health researcher did not account for test performance in estimates of seroprevalence. Using straightforward calculations, we estimated the amount of bias introduced when reporting the proportion of positive test results instead of using sensitivity and specificity to estimate disease prevalence. Results: Of the seroprevalence studies sampled, 80% failed to account for sensitivity and specificity. Expected bias is often more than is desired in practice, ranging from 1% to 10%. Conclusions: Researchers conducting studies of prevalence should correctly account for test sensitivity and specificity in their statistical analysis.
In this manuscript, we derive a closed form solution to the full Kermack and McKendrick integro-differential equations (Kermack and McKendrick 1927) which we call the KMES. The KMES can be cast in the form of a step function response to the input of new infections; and that response is the time series of the total infections. We demonstrate the veracity of the KMES using independent data from the Covid 19 pandemic and derive many previously unknown and useful analytical expressions for diagnosing and managing an epidemic. These include new expressions for the viral load, the final size, the effective reproduction number, and the time to the peak in infections. Since the publication of the Kermack and McKendrick seminal paper (1927), thousands of authors have utilized the Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered (SIR) approximations; expressions which are putatively derived from the integro-differential equations, to model epidemic dynamics. Implicit in the use of the SIR approximation are the beliefs that there is no closed form solution to the more complex integro-differential equations, that the approximation adequately reproduces the dynamics of the integro-differential equations, and that herd immunity always exists. However, as we explicate in this manuscript, the KMES demonstrates that the SIR models are not adequate representations of the integro-differential equations, and herd immunity is not guaranteed. Our conclusion is that the KMES obsoletes the need for the SIR approximations; and provides a new level of understanding of epidemic dynamics.
Objective: To estimate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination against hospitalisation for COVID-19 and death involving COVID-19 in England using linked population level data sources including the 2021 Census. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: England, 21 March 2021 to 20 March 2022. Participants: Individuals alive and aged 16+ on 21 March 2021, resident in England, enumerated in the 2021 Census as a usual resident, and able to link to an NHS number. A sample of 583,840 individuals was used for the analysis. Exposures: COVID-19 vaccination: first dose, second dose and third dose/first booster dose, with categories for time since each dose. Main outcome measures: Hospitalisation for COVID-19 or death involving COVID-19. An adjusted Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the hazard ratio for the outcomes for vaccinated participants for different doses and time since dose compared to unvaccinated individuals. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated as (1 minus hazard ratio)x 100%. A control outcome of non-COVID-19 death was also assessed. Results: Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation for COVID-19 was 52.1% (95% confidence interval 51.3% to 52.8%) for a first dose, 55.6% (55.2% to 56.1%) for a second dose and 77.6% (77.3% to 78.0%) for a third dose, with a decrease in vaccine effectiveness 3+ months after the third dose. Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 mortality was 58.7% (52.7% to 63.9%) for a first dose, 88.5% (87.5% to 89.5%) for a second dose and 93.2% (92.9% to 93.5%) for a third dose, with evidence of waning 3+ months after the second and third doses. For the second dose, which is the most comparable across the different time-periods, vaccine effectiveness was higher against COVID-19 hospitalisation but slightly lower against COVID-19 mortality in the Omicron dominant period than the period before the Omicron variant became dominant. Vaccine effectiveness against both COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality was higher in general for mRNA vaccines than non mRNA vaccines, however this could be influenced by the different populations given each vaccine vector. Non-zero VE against non-COVID-19 mortality indicates that residual confounding may impact the results, despite the inclusion of up-to-date socio-demographic adjustments and various sources of health data, with possible frailty bias, confounding by indication and a healthy vaccinee effect observed. Conclusions: The vaccine effectiveness estimates show increased protection with number of doses and a high level of protection against both COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality for the third/booster dose, as would be expected from previous research. However, despite the various sources of health data used to adjust the models, the estimates for different breakdowns and for non-COVID-19 mortality expose residual confounding by health status, which should be considered when interpreting estimates of vaccine effectiveness.
Background: Although CoronaVac was the only Covid-19 vaccine adopted in the first months of the Brazilian vaccination campaign, randomized clinical trials to evaluate its efficacy in elderly adults were limited. In this study, we use routinely collected surveillance and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and testing data comprising the population of the fifth largest city of Brazil to evaluate the effectiveness of CoronaVac in adults 60+ years old against severe outcomes. Methods: Using large observational databases on vaccination and surveillance data from the city of Fortaleza, Brazil, we defined a retrospective cohort including 324,302 eligible adults aged ≥ 60 years to evaluate the effectiveness of the CoronaVac vaccine. The cohort included individuals vaccinated between January 21, 2021, and August 31, 2021, who were matched with unvaccinated persons at the time of rollout following a 1:1 ratio according to baseline covariates of age, sex, and Human Development Index of the neighborhood of residence. Only Covid-19-related severe outcomes were included in the analysis: hospitalization, ICU admission, and death. Vaccine effectiveness for each outcome was calculated by using the risk ratio between the two groups, with the risk obtained by the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Results: We obtained 62,643 matched pairs for assessing the effectiveness of the two-dose regimen of CoronaVac. The demographic profile of the matched population was statistically representative of the population of Fortaleza. Using the cumulative incidence as the risk associated with each group, starting at day 14 since the receipt of the second dose, we found an 82.3% (95% CI 66.3 - 93.9) effectiveness against Covid-19-related death, 68.4% (95% CI 42.3 - 86.4) against ICU admission, and 55.8% (95% CI 42.7 - 68.3) against hospital admission. Conclusions: Our results show that, despite critical delays in vaccine delivery and limited evidence in efficacy trial estimates, CoronaVac contributed to preventing deaths and severe morbidity due to Covid-19 in elderly adults.
Extracorporeal Photopheresis as a Possible Therapeutic Approach to Adults With Severe and Critical COVID-19 - Condition: COVID-19
Intervention: Procedure: Extracorporeal photopheresis
Sponsor: Del-Pest Central Hospital - National Institute of Hematology and Infectious Diseases
Recruiting
A Clinical Trial on Booster Immunization of Two COVID-19 Vaccines Constructed From Different Technical Routes - Condition: COVID-19
Interventions: Biological: Prototype and Omicron BA.4/5 Bivalent Recombinant COVID-19 Vaccine(Adenovirus Type 5 Vector) For Inhalation; Biological: Bivalent COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine; Biological: Recombinant COVID-19 Vaccine (Adenovirus Type 5 Vector) For Inhalation
Sponsors: Zhongnan Hospital; Institute of Biotechnology, Academy of Military Medical Sciences, PLA of China
Recruiting
Community-engaged Optimization of COVID-19 Rapid Evaluation And TEsting Experiences - Conditions: COVID-19; COVID-19 Pandemic
Interventions: Behavioral: COVID-19 walk-up, on-site testing strategy; Behavioral: Community Health Worker (CHW) leading testing navigation and general preventive care reminders; Behavioral: No-cost self-testing kit vending machines
Sponsors: University of California, San Diego; San Ysidro Health Center
Not yet recruiting
ACTIV-6: COVID-19 Study of Repurposed Medications - Arm F (Montelukast) - Condition: Covid19
Interventions: Other: Placebo; Drug: Montelukast
Sponsors: Susanna Naggie, MD; National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS); Vanderbilt University Medical Center
Recruiting
ACTIV-6: COVID-19 Study of Repurposed Medications - Arm B (Fluvoxamine) - Condition: Covid19
Interventions: Drug: Fluvoxamine; Other: Placebo
Sponsors: Susanna Naggie, MD; National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS); Vanderbilt University Medical Center
Completed
ACTIV-6: COVID-19 Study of Repurposed Medications - Arm D (Ivermectin 600) - Condition: Covid19
Interventions: Drug: Ivermectin; Other: Placebo
Sponsors: Susanna Naggie, MD; National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS); Vanderbilt University Medical Center
Completed
ACTIV-6: COVID-19 Study of Repurposed Medications - Arm E (Fluvoxamine 100) - Condition: Covid19
Interventions: Drug: Fluvoxamine; Other: Placebo
Sponsors: Susanna Naggie, MD; National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS); Vanderbilt University Medical Center
Completed
Safety Study of COVID19 Vaccine on the Market - Condition: COVID-19
Intervention: Biological: Recombinant new coronavirus vaccine (CHO cell)
Sponsors: Anhui Zhifei Longcom Biologic Pharmacy Co., Ltd.; Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Hainan Center for Disease Control & Prevention
Recruiting
Evaluation of Home Use COVID-19 Frequent Antigen Testing and Data Reporting - Condition: COVID-19 Respiratory Infection
Intervention: Diagnostic Test: SARS CoV-2 antigen tests
Sponsors: IDX20 Inc; National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (NIMHD)
Recruiting
Pycnogenol® in Post-COVID-19 Condition - Conditions: Post COVID-19 Condition; Long COVID
Interventions: Drug: Pycnogenol®; Drug: Placebo
Sponsor: University of Zurich
Not yet recruiting
Efficacy of Bailing Capsule on Pulmonary Fibrosis After COVID-19 - Conditions: Pulmonary Fibrosis; COVID-19 Pneumonia
Intervention: Drug: Bailing capsule
Sponsor: Second Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University
Not yet recruiting
Mitoquinone/Mitoquinol Mesylate as Oral and Safe Postexposure Prophylaxis for Covid-19 - Conditions: SARS-CoV Infection; COVID-19
Interventions: Drug: Mitoquinone/mitoquinol mesylate; Other: Placebo
Sponsor: University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center
Not yet recruiting
Evaluating Emetine for Viral Outbreaks (EVOLVE) - Condition: COVID-19
Interventions: Drug: Emetine Hydrochloride; Drug: Placebo
Sponsors: Johns Hopkins University; Nepal Health Research Council; Bharatpur Hospital Chitwan; Stony Brook University; Rutgers University
Not yet recruiting
Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Monoclonal Antibodies for Long COVID (COVID-19) - Conditions: Long COVID; Post-Acute Sequela of COVID-19; Post-Acute COVID-19
Interventions: Drug: AER002; Other: Placebo
Sponsors: Michael Peluso, MD; Aerium Therapeutics
Not yet recruiting
To Evaluate the Immunogenicity and Safety of Sequential Booster Immunization of Recombinant Novel Coronavirus Vaccine (CHO Cells) for SARS-CoV-2 - Condition: COVID-19
Intervention: Biological: Recombinant Novel Coronavirus vaccine (CHO Cells)
Sponsor: Anhui Zhifei Longcom Biologic Pharmacy Co., Ltd.
Completed
Serum proteomics hint at an early T-cell response and modulation of SARS-CoV-2-related pathogenic pathways in COVID-19-ARDS treated with Ruxolitinib - CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that the mechanism of action of Ruxo in COVID-19-ARDS can be related to both known effects of this drug as a modulator of T-cells and the SARS-CoV-2-infection.
Elucidation of novel compounds and epitope-based peptide vaccine design against C30 endopeptidase regions of SARS-CoV-2 using immunoinformatics approaches - There has been progressive improvement in immunoinformatics approaches for epitope-based peptide design. Computational-based immune-informatics approaches were applied to identify the epitopes of SARS-CoV-2 to develop vaccines. The accessibility of the SARS-CoV-2 protein surface was analyzed, and hexa-peptide sequences (KTPKYK) were observed having a maximum score of 8.254, located between amino acids 97 and 102, whereas the FSVLAC at amino acids 112 to 117 showed the lowest score of 0.114. The…
Host microRNA interactions with the SARS-CoV-2 viral genome 3’-untranslated region - The 2019 pandemic, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has marked the spread of a novel human coronavirus. While the viral life cycle is well understood, most of the interactions at the virus-host interface remain elusive. Furthermore, the molecular mechanisms behind disease severity and immune evasion are still largely unknown. Conserved elements of the viral genome such as secondary structures within the 5’- and 3’-untranslated regions (UTRs) serve as…
Vascular Endothelial-derived SPARCL1 Exacerbates Viral Pneumonia Through Pro-Inflammatory Macrophage Activation - Inflammation upon infectious lung injury is a double-edged sword: while tissue-infiltrating immune cells and cytokines are necessary to control infection, these same factors often aggravate injury. Full appreciation of both the sources and targets of inflammatory mediators is required to facilitate strategies to maintain antimicrobial effects while minimizing off-target epithelial and endothelial damage. Recognizing that the vasculature is centrally involved in tissue responses to injury and…
In vitro reconstitution of SARS CoV-2 Nsp1-induced mRNA cleavage reveals the key roles of the N-terminal domain of Nsp1 and the RRM domain of eIF3g - SARS CoV-2 nonstructural protein 1 (Nsp1) is the major pathogenesis factor that inhibits host translation using a dual strategy of impairing initiation and inducing endonucleolytic cleavage of cellular mRNAs. To investigate the mechanism of cleavage, we reconstituted it in vitro on β-globin, EMCV IRES and CrPV IRES mRNAs that use unrelated initiation mechanisms. In all instances, cleavage required Nsp1 and only canonical translational components (40S subunits and initiation factors), arguing…
A Novel Viral Assembly Inhibitor Blocks SARS-CoV-2 Replication in Airway Epithelial Cells - The ongoing evolution of SARS-CoV-2 to evade vaccines and therapeutics underlines the need for novel therapies with high genetic barriers to resistance. The small molecule PAV-104, identified through a cell-free protein synthesis and assembly screen, was recently shown to target host protein assembly machinery in a manner specific to viral assembly. Here, we investigated the capacity of PAV-104 to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 replication in human airway epithelial cells (AECs). Our data demonstrate that…
Virtual Health Promotion Work-Integrated Learning Placements: A COVID-19 Consequence or Preparation for the Future? - We explored student and industry supervisors’ experiences of virtual work-integrated learning (vWIL) health promotion placements during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a descriptive phenomenological qualitative methodology, we conducted semi-structured interviews with eight students and eight supervisors of undergraduate health promotion-related placements at community, not-for-profit and government organizations. We asked participants about the aspects of their placement they found most enjoyable…
Designing for digital transformation of residency education - a post-pandemic pedagogical response - CONCLUSIONS: The study reflects the course leaders’ pedagogical response to the pandemic, as remote teaching became the only way to provide residency education. Initially, the sudden shift was perceived as constraining, but over time they found new affordances through the enforced use of digital technology that helped them not only to cope with the transition but also to innovate their pedagogical methods. After a rapid, forced shift from on-site to digital courses, it is crucial to utilize…
Eco-friendly and effective antimicrobial Melaleuca alternifolia essential oil Pickering emulsions stabilized with cellulose nanofibrils against bacteria and SARS-CoV-2 - Melaleuca alternifolia essential oil (MaEO) is a green antimicrobial agent suitable for confection eco-friendly disinfectants to substitute conventional chemical disinfectants commonly formulated with toxic substances that cause dangerous environmental impacts. In this contribution, MaEO-in-water Pickering emulsions were successfully stabilized with cellulose nanofibrils (CNFs) by a simple mixing procedure. MaEO and the emulsions presented antimicrobial activities against Staphylococcus aureus…
Porcine Deltacoronavirus Infection Disrupts the Intestinal Mucosal Barrier and Inhibits Intestinal Stem Cell Differentiation to Goblet Cells via the Notch Signaling Pathway - Goblet cells and their secreted mucus are important elements of the intestinal mucosal barrier, which allows host cells to resist invasion by intestinal pathogens. Porcine deltacoronavirus (PDCoV) is an emerging swine enteric virus that causes severe diarrhea in pigs and causes large economic losses to pork producers worldwide. To date, the molecular mechanisms by which PDCoV regulates the function and differentiation of goblet cells and disrupts the intestinal mucosal barrier remain to be…
SARS-CoV-2 infection impairs NK cell functions via activation of the LLT1-CD161 axis - CONCLUSION: We propose a novel mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 inhibition of NK cell functions via activation of the LLT1-CD161 axis.
DPP-4 inhibitors for treating T2DM - hype or hope? an analysis based on the current literature - DPP-4 inhibition is an interesting line of therapy for treating Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) and is based on promoting the incretin effect. Here, the authors have presented a brief appraisal of DPP-4 inhibitors, their modes of action, and the clinical efficiency of currently available drugs based on DPP-4 inhibitors. The safety profiles as well as future directions including their potential application in improving COVID-19 patient outcomes have also been discussed in detail. This review also…
Failure of TRPC6 inhibition to prevent COVID-19 deterioration: more questions than answers - No abstract
The CH24H metabolite, 24HC, blocks viral entry by disrupting intracellular cholesterol homeostasis - Cholesterol-24-hydroxylase (CH24H or Cyp46a1) is a reticulum-associated membrane protein that plays an irreplaceable role in cholesterol metabolism in the brain and has been well-studied in several neuro-associated diseases in recent years. In the present study, we found that CH24H expression can be induced by several neuroinvasive viruses, including vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), rabies virus (RABV), Semliki Forest virus (SFV) and murine hepatitis virus (MHV). The CH24H metabolite,…
Novel Fluorescent Benzothiazolyl-Coumarin Hybrids as Anti-SARS-COVID-2 Agents Supported by Molecular Docking Studies: Design, Synthesis, X-ray Crystal Structures, DFT, and TD-DFT/PCM Calculations - This study revealed the design and preparation of new 3-(benzo[d]thiazol-2-yl)-2H-chromen-2-one derivatives 9a-h. The structures of the synthesized products were elucidated by their spectroscopic data and X-ray crystallography for compounds 9a and 9d. The prepared new compounds were measured for their fluorescence, and a good result indicated that the emission efficiency was decreased by increasing the electron-withdrawing groups from the unsubstituted compound 9a to the highly substituted…