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Thursday’s national death average of 2,575 people per day is higher than it was during the delta surge as well, when there was an average of 2,000 people dying per day.

“It is troubling because it feels like this rush to ‘normal’ outweighs more preventable illness [and] death as well as is really tone deaf to the reality that literally for millions of people across the country — there is no normal for them,” says Kristen Urquiza, the founder of Marked by Covid, a nonprofit that advocates on behalf of people who’ve lost loved ones to coronavirus.

State leaders have called for the CDC to offer more clarity about what metrics they should be looking for to determine which policies to roll back and when — but thus far, they have been left to make this decision on their own.

In that vacuum, Kates said that these decisions were likely a byproduct of both public health information and politics. “Politics is a factor here: people are tired of restrictions and governors are listening to that,” Kates told Vox.

Governors are pushing for a return to normalcy

Ahead of midterms in which Democrats are already facing headwinds, “Democrats can’t be the party of mandates,” says progressive strategist Rebecca Katz, the founder of New Deal Strategies.

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY), the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, House Democrats’ campaign arm, has signaled he’s also of this school of thought. He’s among those emphasizing the need for the party to “start getting back to normal.”

Governors’ actions this week in several states including New Jersey, Delaware, and Connecticut seem to echo this viewpoint, though they’ve pushed back against suggestions that these changes were driven by political pressure.

“It’s a combination of cases, hospitalizations, positivity rates, rates of transmission all going dramatically in the right direction,” Murphy said this week.

There’s some evidence to indicate that Democrats have borne a political cost for previous Covid-19 policies, which have included school closures, though it’s far from conclusive. Masking children in schools has also become a political flashpoint in recent months.

After the Virginia gubernatorial election last year, data gathered from an 18-person focus group by Democratic strategist Brian Stryker suggested that Republicans were able to brand Democrats as the ones behind unpopular restrictive policies, including school lockdowns, and win an edge with certain voters as a result. “They felt Democrats closed their schools and didn’t feel bad about it,” Stryker’s memo reads.

A recent New Republic article by Rachel Cohen, however, noted that these policies didn’t necessarily doom Democrats, citing polling showing a majority of parents were satisfied with how their children’s schools handled the pandemic. A Hart Research Associates and Lake Research Partners survey conducted in December found that 78 percent of parents were satisfied with how their school handled the pandemic and 83 percent supported efforts the school had implemented to keep students safe. (Biden has previously been a client of Lake Research Partner.)s

The January Monmouth survey saw that state mask mandates and social distancing guidance still have 52 percent of people’s support, a decline from 63 percent in September. Support for mandates was divided along party lines, with 85 percent of Democrats backing these policies, 51 percent of independents and 24 percent of Republicans.

Still, the pushback that’s accompanied policies including school closures and mask mandates is likely a factor for Democratic leaders hoping to advance a different message in the midterms.

“The majority of the public supports mask mandates in the US and a supermajority of Democratic voters support mask mandates,” says Harvard social epidemiologist Justin Michael Feldman. “They’re not going after mainstream Democrats, they’re targeting swing voters.”

Some Democrats who recently announced changes to Covid-19 restrictions, or who have previously declined to reinstate mask mandates, are up for election this fall, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Beyond moving away from mask mandates, Democrats are also focused on a drawing a contrast with Republican leaders — including pointing to failures of GOP lawmakers to back Covid-19 relief policies, and the misinformation that Republicans leaders have spread about the pandemic.

“We really are going to talk about when Republicans were in charge, they failed to crack down on the coronavirus. They unanimously opposed Democrats’ coronavirus programs that helped people get back to work, [kids] get back to school,” said DSCC spokesperson Jazmin Vargas. “Overall, it’s going to be about how we took steps to take on the coronavirus. We can effectively call out Republicans for opposing us every step of the way.”

In a study on messaging strategies, the left- leaning firm Data for Progress found “that focusing on Democratic achievements to recover from the pandemic is an effective strategy to counter Republican attacks on government interference.”

Many Republican leaders have been criticized by public health experts for lies they’ve spread about vaccines and failures to adequately promote masks and testing. But the challenge Democrats face while calling out Republicans is that Democrats are currently the party in power in the White House and Congress, and in the 16 states where Democratic governors are up for reelection.

As a result, Democrats are likely to bear any blame for continuing struggles in places where they’re in charge. That’s one reason for the growing Democratic interest in promoting an idea of “normalcy” as part of a counter to GOP critiques and public pressureeven as the pandemic is still very much happening.

 Tamir Kalifa/Getty Images

Texas state Rep. Matt Shaheen speaks with a fellow state representative in the House chamber at the Texas State Capitol, in Austin in September 2021. Texas lawmakers convened for special sessions to address Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s conservative priorities, including passing controversial voting and abortion rights laws.

The GOP majority notably passed bills that allow any adult in the state to carry a handgun without a license or permit. It banned abortions after six weeks, in a case that ultimately ended up in the Supreme Court. Texas moved to prevent transgender K-12 students from competing on sports teams that align with their gender identity, and it restricted the way that public school teachers can talk about race and racism in America. The state also passed a bill to prohibit social media companies from removing Texas users based on their political viewpoints, and introduced a slew of new restrictions on voting.

Abbott’s recent record marks a big shift from his last reelection campaign, when he was much more cautious about sticking to bread-and-butter state government issues like property taxes and school finance that wouldn’t offend independents and Democrats. Now, he’s on the front lines of America’s culture war, and has built a national profile that could well propel a rumored 2024 presidential run.

Enacting those national Republican priorities ensured that Abbott’s primary opponents don’t have much ammunition to call him a RINO (Republican in name only), despite their best efforts.

“There’s virtually nothing that Republican primary voters could point to that Abbott did not do,” Jones said. “His entire strategy during the legislative session was to protect his right flank.”

His primary opponents have taken credit for pushing him to the right. Huffines, for instance, said in a statement to Vox that his campaign “forced Greg Abbott’s hand” on the abortion ban and permitless carry — two of the former state senator’s longtime causes — and on the elimination of “critical race theory” in public school curriculums. Huffines said he has also pressured Abbott to send troops to the southern border to address unauthorized migration, as the governor has done through the beleaguered Operation Lone Star.

Huffines is a long-shot candidate, but he’s been making joint campaign appearances with West, and together, they’re a force that Abbott can’t ignore.

“The governor’s primary opponents might not win the primary, but their presence pushed the governor as far to the right ideologically as he’s been since he was elected,” Rottinghaus said.

Abbott has sought to closely align himself with Trump

To further shore up his credentials with the right, Abbott has sought to make himself synonymous with Trump. He has made multiple campaign appearances with the former president, including at a recent rally in Conroe where he said Trump’s name more than two dozen times over the course of a less than six-minute speech. And he has embraced some of Trump’s key political priorities, including militaristic border policies and restrictions on voting rights in the name of what Republicans call “election integrity.”

 Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott speaks during a “Save America” rally in Conroe, Texas, on January 29. Former President Donald Trump later spoke at the rally, making it his first Texas MAGA rally since 2019.

All of that earned Abbott the former president’s endorsement over Huffines, who has accused the governor of not supporting Trump enough and declared himself the only true Trump candidate in the race, implicitly suggesting Trump made a mistake with his endorsement. Some wealthy Trump donors have shared similar sentiments with the Trump camp, arguing tweets from Abbott campaign political director Mitch Carney that were critical of Trump show the governor is only pretending to be pro-Trump. Carney reportedly retweeted and liked tweets that disparaged Trump’s attempts to undermine the results of the 2020 election.

It’s difficult to say for sure how squarely Abbott is in Trump’s camp. But it was only recently that Abbott went all-in on Trumpism. He didn’t support Trump in the 2016 presidential primaries. When he last sought reelection in 2018, he distanced himself from Trump, fearing that the then-president could turn off potential Latino supporters. And he was notably absent from several border roundtables convened by then-President Trump in Texas.

But Trump has proved to have an iron grip over Texas Republicans, and Abbott needs them to win reelection.

“The Republican Party of Texas now is no longer that weak and compromising party,” Matt Rinaldi, the chair of the Texas GOP, told the crowd in Conroe. “We are the bold party of Donald Trump and will stay that way.”

Trump’s support comes at a price: breathing life into the lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him. For his part, Abbott backed an audit of the 2020 election results in Texas at Trump’s request. (An initial review did not identify any significant issues in the state’s electoral system, though further examination of election records will follow this year.)

And Trump could call on Abbott’s help with obfuscating the results again if he runs for president in 2024. At the Conroe rally, Trump said that Texas is “never, ever turning blue — that is, unless they rig the election.”

“Don’t let them do it, governor,” Trump told Abbott.

Despite closely aligning himself with Trump, some Texas Trump voters still don’t think Abbott has gone far enough. Their complaints center on Abbott’s early measures to curb the pandemic in 2020, including a statewide mask mandate and business closures that he lifted well before other states did the same. They also don’t think that he did enough to further conservative priorities, despite the legislature’s historically conservative 2021 session. For instance, nothing short of a complete ban on abortion would satisfy them.

The GOP’s right wing is putting pressure on incumbent Republican governors

Abbott isn’t the only Republican governor facing pressure from his party’s right wing, and his success thus far has created a model other governors could follow.

Georgia’s Gov. Brian Kemp and Ohio’s Gov. Mike DeWine, for example, are both facing conservative challengers who have tried to make their primaries into contests over loyalty to Trump.

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Former US senator and Republican gubernatorial candidate David Perdue with a supporter at a campaign event on February 1 in Dalton, Georgia, where the Perdue campaign aired a video endorsement by former President Donald Trump.

Trump endorsed former US Sen. David Perdue over Kemp, whose close relationship to the former president crumbled when he did not challenge the results of the 2020 election following a state-ordered audit. To shore up Perdue’s chances, Trump even negotiated with another Republican candidate, Vernon Jones, to drop out of the race, endorse Perdue, and instead run for Congress.

Former US Rep. Jim Renacci has also secured a Trump endorsement over DeWine, a more traditional conservative who has at times clashed with his party’s right wing, particularly on the pandemic. Brad Parscale, Trump’s former campaign manager, is advising Renacci’s campaign.

“Jim Renacci’s the only Trump candidate,” Parscale told Politico. “And it is clear from the data that Mike DeWine is the anti-Trump candidate.”

DeWine didn’t carry out a blitzkrieg of conservative policy priorities in the Ohio legislature the way Abbott did in Texas, but he has been more cooperative with right-wing state lawmakers on issues spanning from redistricting to gun control over the last year. For his part, Kemp has offered up a proposal to allow Georgians to carry a concealed handgun without a state license as bait for Republican voters — but only after Perdue unveiled a similar proposal weeks before and criticized him for not taking more action on gun rights.

At the moment, these moves seem as though they may help both governors hang onto power. DeWine, who didn’t even try to publicly court Trump’s endorsement, held a healthy 41 to 23 percent lead over Renacci in one recent Trafalgar Group poll. And before Jones dropped out, Kemp was leading the primary, with 43 percent support to Perdue’s 36 percent in a Quinnipiac University poll. But it’s possible that Jones’s supporters could bolster Perdue’s numbers and make the race much closer.

Even incumbents who aren’t seeking reelection have felt pressure from the right flank. Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker, a moderate who has been critical of Trump, decided not to run for a third term this year due in part to his party’s rightward shift and the prospect of facing a conservative primary challenger endorsed by the former president.

Beyond PR campaigns, there are other ways schools and districts can motivate families to vaccinate children. Some have used incentives, like money, gift cards, or free tickets to prom. Many — about two-thirds of the districts CRPE studies — offer vaccine clinics on campus to make it easy for students to get the shot.

It’s also important for clinicians and public health officials to be able to talk with families about the vaccine. Parents’ view on vaccines often depends on “if they have access to information or reliable experts that can help address questions,” Kalu said.

Overall, experts emphasize the importance of normalizing the Covid-19 vaccine as just another part of the childhood immunization process. “People that do not have young kids, or do not remember being a young child, may forget how often vaccines are a part of normal preventive care for children,” Kalu said. “Approaching it from that perspective, somewhat removed from the chaos of Covid itself, might be helpful.”

At the same time, even what many people now accept as normal childhood immunizations have been the subject of controversy and resistance for centuries. Public health officials and school districts may have a long road ahead of them — but if it’s any consolation, it’s one many have traveled before.

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