Daily-Dose

Contents

From New Yorker

From Vox

Everything is at stake for Afghanistan at this year’s UN climate conference.

After decades of foreign intervention and violent conflict, the American mission in Afghanistan has ended and the Taliban have announced a new government. But for millions of Afghans, human-induced climate change has only magnified the strife.

Most of Afghanistan is dry and hot for much of the year, and from 1950 to 2010, the landlocked country warmed 1.8 degrees Celsius — about twice the global average, but it is only responsible for a tiny fraction of greenhouse gas emissions.

The combined impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, war, and prolonged drought threaten millions of Afghans with food insecurity. Although rainfall in Afghanistan has long varied, certain farming regions in the east, north, and central highlands are seeing up to 40 percent less rain during the spring, when the largely rain-fed crops will need water most. A majority of Afghans earn some income from farming.

Sayed Khodaiberdi Sadat/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
The death toll was said to have hit over 100, with hundreds of homes destroyed, as a result of floods in Afghanistan in late August.

To avoid the most devastating impacts for Afghanistan, experts have stressed that the US and the international community must commit to deeper cuts to carbon emissions and help developed countries to become more resilient in the face of environmental calamities.

At the United Nations Climate Conference (COP26) in Glasgow this November, nearly 200 world governments have the chance to make good on their commitments to keep global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, in line with the 2016 Paris climate agreement. Developing countries are already asking some of the world’s top economies to further slash emissions, and to provide financial help with adapting to climate change and transitioning to clean energy through mechanisms like the Green Climate Fund.

Before the Taliban took over, Afghanistan’s National Environmental Protection Agency planned to submit its updated climate pledge at the conference. It planned to ask for more financial assistance for projects to improve water management, as well as smart agriculture implementations to improve farm productivity and reduce environmental harm.

Ahmad Samim Hoshmand was set to represent Afghanistan at COP26. But now he’s one of the thousands of Afghan people to flee, as the Taliban swept through major cities and assumed power. As national ozone officer for the United Nations Environment Program, Hoshmand’s work to enforce the global ban on ozone-depleting substances made him an enemy of people trading them. Having already worked a risky job in Afghanistan, Hoshmand now fears retribution as a refugee.

But despite the security threats facing him and his home country, Hoshmand stresses, “If we don’t address climate change, conflict and violence will only get worse.”

Members of the Taliban have said they want recognition from the international community and to work together to tackle shared concerns like global warming. But how?

For help answering this question, I called Hoshmand, who was in Tajikistan. Our discussion, edited for length and clarity, is below.

This interview was conducted in late August, prior to the announcement of the new Taliban-formed government.

Jariel Arvin

What are the major ways climate change is currently affecting Afghanistan?

Ahmad Samim Hoshmand

Afghanistan is among the most vulnerable countries in the world when it comes to climate change, based on its geography, sensitivity to, and ability to cope with global warming. I’m 100 percent sure that when you add conflict to those criteria, Afghanistan is the most vulnerable country in the world.

Various data shows that the country is facing food insecurity, water scarcity, drought, and flash floods. All these issues are connected to climate change, and in recent years, we have witnessed the situation get even worse. We’ve had extreme weather like floods in the north, while at the same time, we’ve experienced drought in the southern part of Afghanistan.

But there are also indirect impacts of climate change on Afghan society. Violence, conflict, human rights abuses, and underage marriage are linked with climate change. Eighty-five percent of Afghanistan’s economy depends on agriculture. So when farmers lose their livelihoods, they will do whatever they can to survive. In a fragile country like Afghanistan, the alternatives are often dangerous.

Jariel Arvin

What was Afghanistan doing to address climate change before the Taliban took over?

Ahmad Samim Hoshmand

In recent years, we’ve been actively engaging in a multilateral process to fight climate change with the aim of enhancing equality, knowledge sharing, and partnership with countries across the world. We’ve been especially focused on engaging with countries who share common interests of socioeconomic development and sustainable growth. Afghanistan has taken a number of actions at the national level, policy and planning level, and international level.

Jariel Arvin

Are there any specific policies or actions you can point to?

Ahmad Samim Hoshmand

We have taken lots of practical actions, like developing a climate change strategy and action plan. We also completed a greenhouse gas inventory for the first time in the history of Afghanistan, which was a very big achievement for us.

We secured more than $20 million in grants and financing from the Green Climate Fund (GCF), to support the development of renewable energy. At the same time, we’ve also improved our national climate targets in accordance with the 2016 Paris agreement. We were planning on submitting them at COP26.

Jariel Arvin

Do you have any idea what the updated plan will be?

Ahmad Samim Hoshmand

Not at this stage. I hope my colleagues can participate, but given the current situation it is quite difficult to arrange everything.

At the very least, I’d like to see space for Afghanistan at COP26. There should not be an empty chair. There should be someone representing the country, and that person should share at the leadership level that Afghanistan is the most vulnerable country in the world, and we need financial support to cope with climate change shocks, for the sake of our children and the next generation.

Jariel Arvin

Are you still going?

Ahmad Samim Hoshmand

I was on the list. And if the situation calms down, and if my colleagues resume office, then I will participate. I’d love to represent my country.

Jariel Arvin

Let’s say the Taliban didn’t take over this year. How would you have worked to address climate change if you were still a part of the government?

Ahmad Samim Hoshmand

My colleagues from the National Environmental Protection Agency who remained in Kabul are still working to go to COP26. Everyone is waiting for the government to be announced. Once we have a government, then I’m sure that climate experts will go to the Taliban and tell them the urgency and the importance of sending a delegation to COP26.

Jariel Arvin

I’ve read reports that the Taliban are seeking international recognition and that they want to work with other countries to fight climate change. Do you believe them?

Ahmad Samim Hoshmand

A decade ago, when someone in Afghanistan spoke about climate change, it was something that you had to imagine. Now it’s visible. So governments have to work with each other in order to survive. You can’t stop drought, floods, or landslides. In order to survive, governments have to address the problem. There’s no choice but to deal with climate change.

Jariel Arvin

So are you saying that since climate change is an existential issue that threatens the future of Afghanistan, the Taliban’s commitment can be taken seriously?

Ahmad Samim Hoshmand

I hope so. If they know that there are very serious issues we’re facing, and that we cannot do something about them without the support of the international community, then of course they will come up with some good decisions in this regard.

Jariel Arvin

How might the international community work with the Taliban on climate change?

Ahmad Samim Hoshmand

Climate change is different from internal issues, economic issues, or even peace and sustainability. It is a matter of life and death — of a community, of government, of a people. My family is still there. If climate change is not managed well, they might flee Afghanistan one day — not because of war but because of climate-related disasters.

Despite other political issues, the international community needs to help the people of Afghanistan. There are very remote communities where most people don’t know about climate change. They don’t know why there are floods, why there is drought, why there is uncertainty with national disasters. And it is the climate expert’s mandate to take care of them.

Jariel Arvin

So you’re saying that most people in Afghanistan, like farmers and people who are working in the agriculture sector, aren’t aware of climate change?

Samim Hoshmand

Absolutely not. They’re aware that something has changed in nature. They know that today’s situation is not like previous decades, but they don’t know the cause. They’re religious people, and they aren’t knowledgeable about the science of climate change. It is the duty of the international community to support Afghanistan in adapting to climate change shocks and impacts.

Jariel Arvin

How would you spend aid from the international community? What’s the best way to bring the most relief to people in Afghanistan? What kind of projects?

Ahmad Samim Hoshmand

If I’m very optimistic, we can implement projects in very remote areas, which we have not accessed in previous years. That would also be an opportunity to somehow adapt to the climate change shocks in Afghanistan, and implement projects in very remote and foreign and unsecure places.

Projects that help limit risk and exposure to natural disasters, investing in smart agriculture and adaptation projects for ecosystem restoration and reconstruction. We also need projects that improve early warning systems and water management.

Jariel Arvin

Some reports have suggested that climate change has helped the Taliban. Do you think that’s a fair assessment?

Ahmad Samim Hoshmand

When people lose their ability to farm, which is their main source of income, they become more willing to work with opposing entities to regain their livelihoods. When people are hungry, they will do anything to make ends meet.

If we don’t address climate change, the conflict and violence will only get worse.

The recall attempt was essentially an effort to hack California’s electoral system

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has beaten back an attempt by Republicans to recall him from that office. Many votes remain to be counted in the state, but Newsom’s lead looks solid — well over 60 percent of votes on the recall question are for keeping Newsom in office.

The result is a vindication of Newsom’s strategy of framing the contest as between himself and the leading Republican candidate to replace him, conservative talk radio host Larry Elder. But the tumultuous and expensive road here shows that the recall system remains a ticking time bomb for Democrats, even if it didn’t go off this time.

The recall attempt was born out of conservative frustration with Newsom’s governance. The strategy of pushing the recall now rather than waiting for the ordinarily scheduled governor’s race next year was an attempt to essentially hack California’s electoral system, because the bizarrely designed recall system gave conservatives an unusually high chance of winning.

If Newsom had failed to top 50 percent of the vote on the recall question, he would have been ousted. Then whoever came in first place in the crowded field of candidates running to replace him would have become governor — even if they got far less than 50 percent of the overall vote. Newsom was prohibited from running as a replacement candidate himself.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP

Conservative radio talk show host Larry Elder (center) seen with supporters during a campaign stop in Norwalk, California, on July 13.

So there was a strange asymmetry: Newsom needed a majority on the recall question to stay in office, but his replacement could have won with a small slice of the vote. This thrilled conservatives, since a conservative candidate has little chance of winning a typical two-candidate California election. And for a while this summer, this outcome looked somewhat plausible in polls — the Democratic base was disengaged, and some polls on the recall question were nearly tied.

Newsom’s strategy to prevent this was to ensure no credible Democrats entered the race as replacement candidates, and then to frame voters’ choice as really being about Newsom or Elder, who he argued was far too conservative to be governor. That wasn’t just clever spin — once the field took shape, that choice quickly did become the reality voters faced, as shown in the polls reflecting Republican voters’ preferences.

Elder led nearly every poll of the replacement question since July, and most by double digits. The other Republican candidates, like 2018 governor nominee John Cox, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, and celebrity Caitlyn Jenner, had far less support. Much of the Republican base simply flocked to the bombastic and controversial talk radio host. Republican voters chose to make him the preeminent Republican candidate.

But Elder’s share of the vote never came close to topping 50 percent, even with many Democrats abstaining from the replacement question. So when Newsom pointed out that Elder could become governor with well less than a majority of the vote unless Democrats turned out en masse to keep him, he was telling the truth.

Unless the system is reformed, more recall attempts from conservatives seem likely

Overall, the recall drive has reemphasized just how easy it can be to get a recall on the ballot. Conservative activists just needed to get signatures of 12 percent of the voters who turned out in the last governor’s election. And even in California, 38 percent of voters backed Newsom’s GOP opponent last time around, so with the proper shoe leather and funding, that wasn’t a difficult threshold to meet.

Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images
People cast ballots in the California gubernatorial recall election in Beverly Hills on September 14.

So with conservatives seemingly unable to win ordinary statewide elections in California, expect future attempts to try to dislodge Democrats through the recall. This time around, the strategy didn’t work out. But in 2003, it did, and perhaps in the future it could again, given the right circumstances.

Even if Democrats are hesitant to try to eliminate the recall altogether (voters generally don’t like power being taken away from voters), reforming its bizarre asymmetrical structure seems like a no-brainer for them.

Possibilities include allowing the incumbent to run as a replacement candidate, using ranked-choice voting for the replacement question, or ditching the replacement candidates altogether and just have the lieutenant governor take over in case of recall. Any change would have to get voters’ approval, but perhaps that would be doable with the specter of Gov. Elder still looming large in many minds.

Since it’s combined with the invocation to wear a mask — advice given by experts who’ve endorsed vaccines — Minaj’s wary approach to the vaccine is a bit confusing. However, it’s nothing compared to what she followed it up with. Apparently, a big part of her reluctance to get vaccinated was based in part on the fate of her Trinidadian cousin’s friend’s nuptials:

My cousin in Trinidad won’t get the vaccine cuz his friend got it & became impotent. His testicles became swollen. His friend was weeks away from getting married, now the girl called off the wedding. So just pray on it & make sure you’re comfortable with ur decision, not bullied

— Nicki Minaj (@NICKIMINAJ) September 13, 2021

Just to spell it out, known side effects of the Covid-19 vaccine do not include testicle swelling (although unfounded concerns about the vaccine and female fertility have circulated). Without more context about Minaj’s cousin’s friend’s illness, it’s impossible to know more — but it seems highly unlikely his situation had anything to do with Covid-19.

Naturally, this kind of left-field reasoning was widely ridiculed across social media, and Minaj quickly made headlines for peddling coronavirus conspiracies. Yet even as people were lining up to make STD references and Met Gala memes, many of Minaj’s fans were responding supportively — especially to her statement about “doing the research.”

“I read up on all the research for MONTHS before I chose to get it,” one reader responded, referring to the vaccine. “Everyone has the right to read the information given by the FDA and doctors before they take the shot right?”

This belief underlies Minaj’s argument, and it seems to be one that’s held by many other people with similar levels of mistrust in vaccine science.

Minaj’s insistence on doing her own “research” reflects collective Covid-19 anxiety

The problem with “doing one’s own research” is that, as Minaj’s tweets reveal, many people — who haven’t spent years researching viruses and vaccines — don’t have the scientific knowledge needed to evaluate vaccine efficacy without the help of experts. A huge part of the effort to curb Covid-related misinformation has been about trying to get people to understand that vaccination “research” isn’t something many people can just sit down and do on their own. Trying to do so may lead the researcher to pockets of misinformation that result in a citizen being more poorly informed, not better informed, about the actual health risks of vaccines.

In fact, this kind of thinking can be a direct route to begin interacting with and possibly believing in a wide range of conspiracy theories, mainly because there is so much misinformation and disinformation about highly complex subjects, including Covid-19.

It doesn’t help that some of that disinformation has come from trusted public institutions — including, during the Trump administration, directly from the US president.

What Minaj’s opinions represent, then, isn’t just her individual lack of knowledge giving rise to wariness over the vaccine. Her fear has been bolstered by years of anti-vax campaigns, as well as general public lethargy about actually getting vaccinated.

Minaj’s pushback against pro-vaccine rhetoric isn’t unique to her by any means. Black communities have endured centuries of being ruthlessly exploited, lied to, and sometimes used in unethical medical experiments without their knowledge or consent. They’ve been subjected to blatantly racist medical practices, all while continually bearing some of the worst effects of health epidemics, including Covid-19.

With systemic factors leading to a hugely unequal Covid-19 death toll among Black people last year, and false claims about Covid-19 vaccines continuing to spread, there is substantial mistrust of Covid-19 science among some Black Americans. If Nicki Minaj is in that group, can she really be blamed for it?

Well, yes and no — because Minaj’s tweets arguably have a powerful influence over the way her 22 million Twitter followers approach the subject of vaccination. If Minaj’s faith in science and health officials has been undermined and she’s subsequently encouraging followers to trust their intuition over that of health experts, she’s promoting a distrust of science in general that could have seriously damaging repercussions.

What Minaj seems to be arguing for, however, isn’t outright vaccine rejection. She even went on to say, “I’m sure I’ll [be] vaccinated as well cuz I have to go on tour.” Her cautionary, individualistic approach to getting vaccinated, however, might still do damage.

Minaj’s ambivalence is part of a wider problem in conversations around Covid-19 vaccines

Minaj immediately began attempting to soften her harsher statements about the vaccine. She asked her followers which vaccine they’d recommend, and commented that taking the vaccine with no side effects is “the norm.” She also went on to say she “def recommend[s]” that people whose jobs or countries mandate vaccination do so, and admitted she’d probably get the vaccine herself. She also reiterated that her main reason for skipping out on the Met Gala was to protect her 1-year-old son.

She then pointed to a couple of her own tweets to argue that she had never expressed opposition to the vaccine. Minaj’s support clearly seems to be aimed at preventing job loss in circumstances where the vaccine is mandatory. The subtext seems to be a reluctant acceptance that workers can’t always be able to choose to go unvaccinated, rather than Minaj enthusiastically supporting vaccination itself.

Minaj’s overall attitude seems to be a kind of wary caution and a “DIY” approach to science. That might reflect a new “wave” of vaccine rhetoric adopted by many people who don’t strictly identify as anti-vax but who are still reluctant to actually get their shot.

Surveys have found that most unvaccinated adults say they are unlikely to change their minds and get the vaccine. Others who have not gotten the shot may be “in-betweeners” — people who aren’t anti-vax but who are still in a kind of wait-and-see holding pattern.

These holdouts could make a substantial difference in how effective the Covid-19 vaccines can be. The higher the vaccinated population, the more the vaccines can reduce transmission of the disease. Fully vaccinated people can resume living their lives somewhat normally, and their confidence and health may likely help sway even those who’ve firmly decided against the vaccine.

Instead, Minaj’s “middle-of- the-road” approach might become a new avenue for expressing distrust in science while still acquiescing to the necessity of vaccination.

The problem with this is that the efficacy of vaccines never has been, and shouldn’t be, a matter of public debate. With the exception of the original scientific study that began the modern anti-vax movement, which used false and fraudulent research to create fear, vaccines have always been part of scientifically established medical practice. They are safe, effective, and necessary for combating the spread of countless viral diseases.

The “do your research and decide what’s right for you” approach that celebrities like Minaj seem to be endorsing is a disingenuous view. It undermines centuries of epidemiology and important work to fight diseases by suggesting that vaccine safety boils down to how you, personally, feel about vaccines. But the question of whether vaccines are safe isn’t up for debate. The answer is simple: yes.

Minaj’s reluctance to say yes is unfortunate — but it’s important to note she’s far from the only celebrity who’s waffled about vaccine efficacy, spread misinformation, or outright rejected the vaccine. Minaj’s tweets are particularly significant, however, because they weren’t totally anti-vax — and because they came at a moment when all eyes were on her because of her absence from the Met Gala. Thus, many, many people saw Minaj presenting personal ambivalence as an alternative to promoting and trusting science and being responsible about getting vaccinated.

We may be making “My cousin in Trinidad” jokes for a long while to come. The unfortunate influence of Minaj’s vaccine resistance could last even longer.

From The Hindu: Sports

From The Hindu: National News

From BBC: Europe

From Ars Technica

From Jokes Subreddit