Daily-Dose

Contents

From New Yorker

From Vox

These are the unusual political dynamics around President Joe Biden’s top legislative priority, known as the Build Back Better Act. People think it sounds good. There’s not much of a backlash. But it doesn’t seem to be the key to Democrats’ future electoral success, either, if many swing voters vote for the party that opposes it in the next election.

This may be because many Americans simply don’t yet know what’s in the bill, so the stakes aren’t yet concrete for them. The bill has only recently started to dominate headlines, and the emphasis has often been on Democratic disarray and legislative drama rather than on what the bill proposes to do for people. I’ve written an extensive rundown of what may be included in the bill, and the information is out there for those who seek it out, but these details have often been absent from media coverage.

Another possibility is that there’s a disconnect between the forward- looking ambitions of the Build Back Better Act and the current situation in the country. As Matt Yglesias writes, this bill was largely crafted in a pre-delta-variant world. The administration expected it would be debated when the Covid-19 pandemic was all but defeated domestically and the economy was roaring back. The bill was meant to be a pivot from a successful crisis response to the Democratic coalition’s long-held priorities. But the crisis is largely still here, and voters know it.

How to think about the Build Back Better Act

It’s difficult to place the Build Back Better Act on the ideological spectrum. On the one hand, it spends trillions on progressive priorities, and Sen. Bernie Sanders is a big fan. On the other hand, it’s been carefully designed so it avoids hot-button social issues and doesn’t take anything away from anyone except rich people and corporations. The major beneficiaries include the poor and clean energy industries but also many seniors and parents. It’s a big and significant bill, but not really a radical one.

The bill is essentially a grab bag, combining the top priorities that President Biden campaigned on with those of congressional Democrats — at least, all the priorities that qualify for the Senate’s special filibuster-proof budget reconciliation process. Everything in the bill has to clearly affect the federal budget, so there’s nothing about voting rights, immigration provisions may be dropped, and its provisions are generally about spending money rather than changing regulations.

Still, the current version of the bill tries to tackle a great many things — fighting poverty, combating climate change, expanding health care benefits, helping with child-raising expenses, offering universal pre-K and free community college, housing policy, tax policy, and more. (Moderate Democrats like Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia may force some of these policies to be cut back or dropped in the final version.)

The pandemic crisis doesn’t necessarily make these issues less important. Indeed, some of them, like burdensome child care expenses and gaps in the safety net, are arguably more urgent. Other problems, like the climate, certainly aren’t just going away. And the bill extends some important measures first passed in the pandemic relief bill, like the expanded child tax credit.

But overall, this is a bill crafted to advance long-held priorities of the Democratic coalition — not, necessarily, one aimed at addressing issues that are top of mind for swing voters, or that will help the party most electorally. A bill like that might be more laser-focused on the pandemic or the economy.

The politics of Obamacare compared to those of Build Back Better

In that, there’s one major similarity to the first-year legislative agenda of President Barack Obama.

Elected in the midst of the Great Recession, Obama spent his first few months dealing with the economic crisis before pivoting to trying to pass his major health reform bill — a longtime Democratic priority.

The problem was that the economic crisis was not yet fixed — the unemployment rate remained stubbornly high. And though he passed the Affordable Care Act, his approval rating dropped, and Democrats were shellacked in the ensuing 2010 midterms.

History could be repeating itself. Currently, the pandemic, the economy, and “poor leadership” are the top problems American adults think are facing the country, according to a recent Gallup poll. Relatively few respondents named climate change, health care, or poverty as their top priority, but those are the top issues tackled in Biden’s bill.

Still, there are major differences with how the debate over the Build Back Better Act has played out so far.

Obamacare polled poorly by this point in 2009; Biden’s bill doesn’t. The intense backlash on the right that ensued over Obamacare has not materialized this time around — Republican politicians are opposing it, but the GOP base seems more energized by culture war issues and the pandemic.

Biden’s bill also hasn’t dominated public and media attention like the many-months-long Obamacare debate. This may be a consequence of crafting a bill that does so many things, but that is also designed to be unobjectionable: It lacks the central story and conflict that media outlets search for when they make programming choices. Often, more dramatic issues like the pandemic and the pullout of troops from Afghanistan have dominated headlines instead. And when the bill does come to the fore, the frame is usually about how Democrats are fighting over it and struggling to reach agreement, not about what the bill would do.

Perhaps, as Speaker Nancy Pelosi once famously said about Obamacare, Democrats have to pass the Build Back Better Act so the public can find what’s in it. That is, once members of the public start getting the benefits from this bill, it will become popular — as happened with Obamacare. That does not mean that this bill will become a vote-winner for Democrats, but it could ensure achievements stand the test of time or make it more likely that Republicans shy away from repealing it once they retake power.

Moderate Democrats, though, might point to the lack of evidence that the Build Back Better Act is helping the party electorally and suggest cutting it back or dropping it. That perhaps the party should just pass the infrastructure bill that has already won bipartisan Senate support through the House instead.

But that doesn’t necessarily follow. The lowest President Trump’s approval ever dropped was in December 2017, when it looked like congressional Republicans were about to botch tax reform and make his presidency a total failure. Even hardcore Republicans started to get fed up at that point. But the GOP soon got it together and passed its tax bill. Trump’s popularity rebounded a bit and never returned to that previous low point, even after his attempt to overturn the election result. Looking like a loser can be a political problem of its own.

The reality for Democrats is that the 2022 elections will be tremendously difficult regardless of whether this bill passes or fails. A new president’s party very often loses House seats in the midterms, and Democratic majorities in both chambers are very narrow. The reconciliation bill may not save them, but losing it could well sink them.

The Covid Scenario Modeling Hub, which is a synthesis of several projections of future case and death numbers, shows US Covid-19 deaths steadily falling, from an average of nearly 2,000 per day during the last week of September to a projected 90 deaths per day in the final week of February 2022.

But that is assuming a lot of children get vaccinated and no new variant emerges that is more transmissible and/or deadly than the delta variant. Under different parameters, if few children get vaccinated and a new variant does become dominant, the coming winter could look a lot different. The Covid Scenario Modeling Hub projects about 650 deaths every day by the end of February in that scenario — and trending upward. That’s not as bad as the last winter, but it is still much worse than other possible futures. (And to be clear: All the scenarios involve significant uncertainty in the specific numbers projected.)

Which situation we end up in will depend in part on luck (hopefully, the virus does not suddenly become more virulent) and in part on our own decisions (such as whether or not to get vaccinated — which can help stave off new variants).

We likely will end up seeing both scenarios play out in different places. Areas with a lot of immunity, whether by vaccination or infection, may have an easier winter. But there are still pockets of people, in areas as small as a town or even a neighborhood, where there is not much immunity and a lot of people are still vulnerable to Covid-19. They are facing a much harder winter.

Here’s what will determine how the United States fares during the cold-weather months.

The reasons for optimism about Covid-19 this winter

More vaccinations should mean a better winter. Other factors — how much people travel, what precautions they take to social distance, etc. — will play a role, but nothing is as likely to influence how the winter unfolds as vaccination rates.

At this point, about 75 percent of Americans ages 12 and older have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine. Most importantly, 95 percent of people over 65 have gotten at least one dose, and the federal government has signed off on booster shots for that age group. And Pfizer has asked the FDA to approve its vaccine for children ages 5 to 11, which sets the stage for vaccinations to begin for the school-aged population in a matter of weeks.

President Joe Biden’s administration and many states, cities, and employers are doing whatever they can to encourage more vaccinations. The federal government is requiring large employers to institute vaccine mandates; some local governments and businesses are doing the same. Daily vaccination rates are still far below their peak of more than 3 million in April, but they have picked up over the past few months, from a low of about 500,000 per day on average in mid-July to about 950,000 daily in early October.

“Vaccination coverage is creeping up and that, combined with natural immunity, affords increasing protection,” Jennifer Kates, director of global health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told me. “Kids should be eligible soon. Even with kids back in school, we are not seeing big outbreaks. These are all signs that we could be over the significant hump.”

The US is entering a new stage of its epidemic. Covid-19 is not going away, so we will have to decide, individually and collectively, how much risk we are willing to tolerate. It isn’t possible to prevent all infections, but the goal should be to prevent as much serious disease as possible in order to avoid hospitals being too overwhelmed to care for all their patients, a worst-case scenario that was seen in the hardest-hit parts of the country this summer.

The vaccines continue to provide strong protection against severe illness for most people, and many people for whom vaccine effectiveness is more likely to wane are now eligible for booster shots. The more people are vaccinated, the more likely we can allow life to return to normal (or normal-ish) without risking overrun hospitals.

About half of unvaccinated US adults are open to getting the vaccine, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation’s September survey, saying they are either still taking a “wait and see” approach or they’ll get it if required. Most vaccinated people say that they would get a booster if and when they are eligible for one. And about one-third of parents with kids ages 5 to 11 now say they will get their child vaccinated right away, up from 26 percent who were saying the same in July.

All of those trends suggest there is room for the overall US vaccination rate to grow before the cold weather really sets in. That would portend a better winter than last year, even if experts caution it is still possible to see a small bump in cases under a best-case scenario.

Their goal is to have as many of the cases as possible be vaccinated people with mild symptoms that don’t require a trip to the hospital. That way, life could go on in relative safety.

“It’s no secret that Covid will likely remain endemic and still hurt people,” Kumi Smith, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, told me. “But if we can reliably send kids to school and give our health care systems a fighting chance, I️ think that will be a huge step.”

The reasons for pessimism about a coming winter wave

But in the same data, there are trends that could result in a more difficult winter, one in which many Americans remain unprotected from Covid, fully vulnerable to the delta variant — or, in the worst-case scenario, a more virulent successor.

About 12 percent of Americans say they will “definitely not” get the vaccine, under any circumstances, according to the KFF’s September poll. They appear unlikely to be moved by any incentives or requirements; some of them have become a part of the anti-vaccine, pro-miracle cure community that has developed during the pandemic and is not persuaded by the mainstream consensus.

A lot of parents also appear hesitant to get their young children vaccinated, even after the FDA’s expected approval: Per the Kaiser poll, 32 percent of parents said in September that they will “wait and see” about it; 7 percent say they will have their kid get vaccinated only if required, and 24 percent say they will “definitely not” allow their child to be vaccinated. Such a large share of parents being hesitant about a new vaccine is actually not unique to Covid-19. As Aaron Carroll wrote for the Atlantic, it took years for chickenpox vaccination rates to reach 90 percent in the US.

So there will be pockets of the population who remain fully vulnerable to Covid-19. It doesn’t appear likely that the United States can reach sufficient vaccination levels to stop the virus’s transmission entirely. And even vaccinating many more kids may not help as much as vaccinating more older adults would in reducing severe cases overall.

“Even in the most highly vaccinated US states, there will still be a reservoir of people susceptible to the virus,” Josh Michaud, associate director of global health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told me. “No state has reached a level of population immunity that could interrupt spread — and that may not even be possible, given the highly transmissible delta variant.”

Different places will have different levels of vulnerability, though, depending how much immunity there is through vaccinations and prior infections. Some states have vaccinated more than 99 percent of their over-65 population; others, like West Virginia and Wyoming, are still hovering closer to 80 percent, meaning a lot of the people most at risk from Covid-19 lack any immunity to the virus.

That variance goes all the way to the local level. Wayne County, Michigan, is considered highly vulnerable to Covid-19, according to the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index, which uses various socioeconomic measures to assess a place’s risk. The county’s vaccination rate is stuck at 46 percent, well below the overall state rate, and one in four people over 65 aren’t vaccinated.

Bill Hanage, a Harvard University epidemiologist, told me this kind of micro-trend is one reason that clusters of cases continue to appear even in highly vaccinated areas.

“One obvious and important reason is the clustered nature of susceptible individuals,” he said. “If you are 95 percent vaccinated in your town, but the 5 percent unvaccinated are all in the meatpacking plant, that’s not good.”

So the US may end up experiencing both the best-case and worst-case scenarios simultaneously this winter, depending on where you live and who you are. But experts are consistent in saying that more vaccinations should lead to less risk — and help avert what they consider the worst-case scenario for the winter if vaccinations lag.

“Worst-case scenario is that another variant emerges,” Kates said. “Covid has fooled us before and can again. And if people let their guard down — masking stopping too early, for example — we could see another surge, especially since we are entering winter.”

 Win McNamee/Getty Images

  <figcaption>Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) talks with reporters on October 7. The Senate voted to 
increase the debt ceiling, enabling the US government to cover its loan obligations until early December.

Democrats, on the other hand, have argued that Republicans ought to work with them to pass a suspension or increase, or simply get out of the way. One, because avoiding a gigantic economic collapse is in everyone’s interest, and the minority party hasn’t typically blocked action to this degree in the past. And two, because both Democrats and Republicans are responsible for the actual debt that this legislation would address.

Both points are true: The debt grew nearly $8 trillion during the Trump administration as a result of massive tax cuts and pandemic relief. In that time frame, Republicans and Democrats both voted to suspend the debt limit three times. But that didn’t sway Republican lawmakers.

Because Republicans had refused to give up their opposition and Democrats were intent on keeping the pressure on the GOP, the two sides were at an impasse until this week.

How the debt deal came together

On Wednesday, McConnell reversed his position and told Democrats that Republicans would not block a short-term increase to the debt limit into December.

Adamant that they would not pursue reconciliation to raise the ceiling (and, given the deadline, likely out of time to try doing so) Democrats raised the possibility of creating a carve-out in the filibuster rules that would also allow them to pass debt ceiling measures with the 51 Democratic votes they have, rather than the 60 votes filibuster rules require.

That latter option appeared to be gaining momentum this week, although key moderates like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) were still wary of it. As a sign of its traction, however, Biden — who has traditionally been cautious of altering filibuster rules — called carving out a special debt-ceiling- related exemption to the filibuster a “real possibility.”

That possibility may have spurred McConnell’s decision to cave for the time being. According to CNN’s Manu Raju, McConnell was worried about potential threats to the filibuster when he offered Democrats a deal to increase the debt ceiling for now.

McConnell told his colleagues he’s concerned about pressure on Manchin and Sinema to gut filibuster in order to raise debt ceiling, I’m told. He pointed to this as reason why he is floating short-term increase in order to ease pressure on and push Democrats to use reconcilation

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) October 6, 2021

The filibuster has allowed McConnell to block a range of Democratic priorities — from police to voting reforms — despite his party being in the minority. The assumption is that exempting the debt ceiling from the filibuster would increase pressure on Democrats to do so for other issues Republicans oppose, like expanding protections for voting rights.

For now, the filibuster stands. And the GOP’s move helps prevent the US from going into default in the near term. It does little to resolve the central conflict at hand, however. Republicans are still insisting, after all, that Democrats use budget reconciliation to approve a longer-term debt ceiling increase on a partisan basis.

Democrats, meanwhile, are refusing to do so and may consider a filibuster carve-out again in December. “We’re not doing it on reconciliation,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) emphasized earlier this week.

There will be more debt drama in December

The use of the debt limit as political leverage is nothing new.

As Republicans have been fond of pointing out, Biden was among the Democratic senators who voted against raising it in 2006 in order to send a message about his disagreement with Republican policies. In that scenario, though, Democrats did not filibuster the legislation or prevent Republicans from approving it with a simple majority. Additionally, Republicans have previously withheld votes for debt ceiling increases in exchange for policy concessions, something that’s not the case this time around.

This year, as Republicans emphasized, they took issue with the debt limit in order to simply make a point, a tough position to negotiate with.

 Bloomberg via Getty Images

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) speaks to reporters as the Senate was nearing a deal on a short-term increase to the debt ceiling.

This short-term fix does help Democrats in that it allows them to focus their time and energies instead on a larger social spending bill they’ve struggled to complete.

“McConnell caved,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) told reporters. “And now we’re going to spend our time doing child care, health care, and fighting climate change.”

But the larger disagreements between Republicans and Democrats regarding how to move forward remain.

And by procrastinating on solving them, lawmakers have set themselves up for a difficult December. The new deadline to address the debt ceiling also coincides with another deadline to pass more government appropriations — that is, the money needed to keep the government functioning.

That means Congress will find itself in a tough spot yet again in just a few months. Not only will lawmakers have to solve their debt ceiling disagreements and stave off economic disaster, but they’ll have to do so while fighting over how to avoid a government shutdown.

From The Hindu: Sports

From The Hindu: National News

From BBC: Europe

From Ars Technica

From Jokes Subreddit