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Chicago’s Field Museum has collected tens of thousands of birds that collided with buildings downtown. These four are from its collection.

See where birds are flying overhead

Our ability to map and forecast birds is rooted, like so many innovations, in war. Engineers developed radar technology during World War II to detect enemy aircraft, which basically involves broadcasting microwaves and seeing what they bounce off of — not unlike how a bat might use sonar to map out a dark cave. During the war, radar operators began noticing strange dots — known as “angels” — appearing on their screens. The operators, some of whom were birders, eventually figured out that the dots weren’t bomb- carrying planes at all. They were birds.

The discovery sparked a revolution in ornithology. In the eight decades since, scientists have used radar technology to detect birds and swarms of insects in the night sky, just as meteorologists have used it to map out hurricanes and rainstorms. More recently, major advances in computing have made it easier to process large amounts of data, allowing scientists to put together detailed migration forecasts in a short period, said Andrew Farnsworth, a senior research associate at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, who leads the BirdCast project. We’re now in the era of radar ornithology, he said.

 Van Doren and Horton/BirdCast

BirdCast’s live map shows where birds are migrating. Warmer colors indicate higher numbers of birds are passing through an area.

First launched in 2000, BirdCast runs on software that analyzes weather radar to discern what’s a bird versus a cloud or another object. That analysis produces a map of the US that shows where birds are migrating in the sky, like the one above, with warmer (oranger) regions showing where there’s more bird traffic — that is, more birds moving through an area at a given time. Pretty neat, right?

BirdCast also produces three-day forecasts, which estimate nighttime movements because the vast majority of North American birds migrate after dark. Researchers have a good idea of how weather affects their journeys — temperature, which affects the speed and direction of wind, is especially important for determining when birds travel, Farnsworth said. By leveraging weather forecasts, BirdCast estimates where birds might migrate in the near future. (You can find the forecast and “live” migration maps here.)

Van Doren and Horton/BirdCast
BirdCast’s migration forecast for Thursday, September 30.

You can use these maps to go birdwatching, though keep in mind that they show the number of birds in the sky — not on the ground — and that the forecast is for nighttime migration. Where the predictive power really comes into play is in helping cities, big and small, reduce the number of birds that die from smashing into buildings.

How bird forecasts can cut down on window collisions

Each year in the US, between 365 million and 988 million birds die from running into buildings, researchers estimate. It’s the second-leading cause of avian death in North America after predation by house cats, and light pollution is a big part of the problem. Lights can attract and disorient birds, causing them to crash.

When you have 226 dead window-struck migratory birds from one morning, it’s hard to get them all in one photo. @_WTCOfficial — lights can be turned off, windows can be treated. Please do something. @4WTC and @3wtcnewyork don’t let this be your legacy. @NYCAudubon @wildbirdfund pic.twitter.com/Qiu8Wqmilf

— Melissa Breyer (@MelissaBreyer) September 14, 2021

That’s what makes bird forecasts so useful: When we know a large number of birds are set to pass through a particular region, it’s clear that we can prevent strikes by turning off at least some of the lights in buildings at night. It’s really that simple — and we know it works.

One study published this summer, for example, found that halving the area of windows that are illuminated at a large convention center in Chicago during spring migration led to 11 times fewer collisions. The authors further concluded that dimming lights during migration could reduce the number of collisions at the center by about 60 percent. You rarely come across wins of that magnitude in conservation — and literally overnight, at that.

    <img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-

cdn.com/thumbor/7oVby_33DOT65cQJnUuZPwIcUg4=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox- cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22884691/lights_out.jpeg" /> Van Doren and Horton/BirdCast

BirdCast has a feature called “lights out alerts,” which reveal which cities should prioritize turning out the lights, and when.

Across the US, more than 40 cities now have Lights Out programs, and some, including New York, have passed legislation requiring that buildings be more bird-friendly — such as by using glass with patterns that make windows more visible to birds. BirdCast, for its part, has a feature called “lights out alerts” (shown above) that can help cities figure out when to go dark.

Similarly, researchers have proposed using forecasts to help reduce bird strikes at airports, which cause more than $1 billion in damage each year globally. In one recent study, scientists analyzed plane-bird collisions at three New York City airports and found that weather radar can “accurately predict the probability of bird strikes.” Theoretically, airports could use that information to make flying safer and less costly.

What radar is revealing about birds

Bird radar isn’t just useful for birdwatchers and collision prevention. It’s also helping scientists answer some of ornithology’s biggest questions, such as how climate change is affecting the timing of migration.

Results from a radar- based 2019 study, for example, found that rising temperatures are shifting spring migration about two days earlier per decade in the US, on average. (The changes are much greater as you move farther north.) That may not sound like much, but migrations are carefully planned events where timing is a matter of life and death.

Birds have adapted to arrive at particular locations at particular times — for example, “when the pulses of spring insect blooms are peaking,” Farnsworth said. “With earlier rising temperatures, birds may arrive after the pulse of food availability, creating a growing mismatch. If this happens rapidly, bird populations may not be able to keep up.”

Researchers are also using radar to more closely investigate some of the unknowns of migration, like what happens to birds during a big thunderstorm or when wind patterns suddenly change. They previously thought storms might bring migration to a halt, Farnsworth said, but radar suggests otherwise. “The thought that rain automatically stops migration is totally wrong,” he said. “Birds are moving in all kinds of conditions.”

Yet despite all of the advances in radar ornithology, one major mystery remains largely unsolved. How do birds navigate, anyway? I still get turned around in my hometown, so it’s hard to imagine that birds can travel thousands of miles to a destination they’ve never seen or visited. To pull off such a feat, they likely use some combination of the sun, the stars, Earth’s magnetic field, and possibly even their sense of smell. But exactly how they piece all that information together to navigate is “a total mystery,” Farnsworth said. “I don’t think we’re anywhere near beginning to understand it.”

Let’s be clear: With a Democratic President, a Democratic House, and a Democratic Senate, Democrats have every tool they need to raise the debt limit. It is their sole responsibility. Republicans will not facilitate another reckless, partisan taxing and spending spree.

— Leader McConnell (@LeaderMcConnell) September 15, 2021

Love or hate him, McConnell is right about this much: Democrats can absolutely raise the debt ceiling on their own, using the reconciliation process. Importantly, they can also do this without involving the large omnibus spending bill they also hope to pass through that process.

A decent summary of the budget reconciliation process is that Congress has to pass one piece of legislation per budget cycle with only 50 Senate votes, rather than the 60 needed to clear a filibuster. But that summary elides some important details. The Congressional Budget Act allows three uses of reconciliation per budget resolution: one to affect taxes, one to affect spending, and one to affect the debt ceiling. Usually major legislation affects both taxes and spending; the omnibus reconciliation bill that Democrats are preparing does this.

But this nuance leaves open an option of addressing taxes and spending in the omnibus bill (to be passed later this fall after more negotiating), and separately raising the debt ceiling in a different bill that can pass with less drama.

By the same token, they could and should use this clean debt ceiling bill to eliminate the debt ceiling altogether. John Yarmuth, the House Budget Committee chair, has endorsed my idea of raising the debt ceiling to “a gazillion dollars” to render it inoperative, though he seems dubious this can be done in time this fall; David Super, the Georgetown professor, has proposed legally tying the debt ceiling to however much debt the US happens to have, so it’s never breached.

The difficulty, as Super explained to the Washington Post, is that Congress has to say it’s doing this in the budget resolution it passes. The fiscal year 2022 budget resolution has already been adopted, so Congress would have to reopen and amend it before it could pass changes to the debt ceiling this way.

But amending the resolution is easier said than done. Roll Call’s Paul Krawzak has written a very clear description of this problem if you need more details, but the upshot is that Republicans on the Senate Budget Committee could block an increase in the debt ceiling, just as Senate Republicans generally could block an increase from passing through normal, non-reconciliation procedures. If a single Republican on the committee — say, Sen. Mitt Romney — showed up to the hearing, the amended resolution could proceed and the debt ceiling could be raised with Democratic votes, but there’s no guarantee such a Republican would step up.

The difficulty of that process led Yarmuth to tell Punchbowl News that it’s “virtually impossible” to pass the amended resolution and a debt ceiling increase or abolition before the debt ceiling is breached (sometime between mid-October and mid-November).

It’s still worth trying to get Romney or another Republican on board with assisting passage of a clean debt ceiling increase. But if there is no time, and/or no Republican desire to keep the government from defaulting, then Biden has to start thinking about more exotic options.

Last-ditch options to kill the debt ceiling

When the Obama administration was negotiating over the debt ceiling with Republicans in Congress, it repeatedly ruled out any options that would enable it to unilaterally ignore or nullify the debt ceiling. Furman told me that the administration’s assumption was that it would be forced to prioritize payments in the event of a debt ceiling breach, ensuring that payments were still made to owners of Treasury bonds, then paying Social Security checks and military salaries, while nearly everything else, from Medicare to the FBI to the Food and Drug Administration, went unfunded.

This is a smart negotiating posture for an administration, because it defines the cost of congressional inaction as armageddon, where the government and economy likely grind to a halt.

But any administration, if it were truly faced with such a calamity, would not actually be helpless. There are at least four different ways a president could nullify the debt ceiling without Congress.

None of these are free from risk, and all would likely spark considerable litigation. That litigation could in turn cause market turmoil as market actors debate the value of US debt issued under these conditions. But all would be preferable to defaulting on US debt.

A visualization of what a $1 
trillion coin could look like DonkeyHotey via Flickr

How beautiful a $1 trillion coin could be.

  1. Mint the coin

If you were following the news during the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling crises, you’ll remember this one. Way back in 2010, Carlos Mucha, a blog writer and commenter using the name Beowulf, noticed a strange federal law giving the US Treasury secretary the power to issue platinum coins of any value she wishes. The original intention behind the law, as its author, former Rep. Michael Castle (R-DE), told me back in 2013, was to make it easier to produce platinum coins for the international coin collector market. It had nothing to do with the debt ceiling.

But in 2011, Mucha revived the idea in the context of the debt ceiling standoff. The Federal Reserve, he noted, owns trillions in Treasury bonds. The Treasury secretary could issue, say, a platinum coin worth $2 trillion, deposit it into the Treasury’s account at the Fed, and use those funds to sustain the government until the debt ceiling is raised.

The best part of the “Mint the Coin” plan is that the idea of funding the government with a literal $2 trillion coin is extremely funny. The worst part is that it’s extremely funny, and thus seems insufficiently serious for the US government. That’s part of why the Obama administration rejected the idea.

But the legal case for minting the coin is as solid as platinum; just ask former US Mint head Philip Diehl, or Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), who has introduced legislation to close the platinum coin loophole. The plain text of the law clearly allows the Treasury secretary to do this, and Jay Powell, the Fed chair and in a past career an expert on the debt ceiling and its dangers, is arguably legally required to accept the coin as a deposit.

You can also imagine more serious variations on the concept. Progressive economist Mike Konczal once proposed issuing a $20 billion coin every day to keep the government running, until Congress agrees to abolish the debt ceiling for good. And a $20 billion coin is a little less silly than a $2 trillion one, surely?

  1. Invoke the 14th Amendment

Section 4 of the 14th Amendment, passed in the wake of the Civil War and partially dealing with debts incurred in financing the conflict, specifies that “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law … shall not be questioned.” Some legal scholars, notably Yale’s Jack Balkin, have argued that this clause renders the debt ceiling unconstitutional, as it threatens the validity of the US’s public debts by creating the possibility of default.

This is hardly a consensus position among constitutional law experts (former conservative federal appeals judge Michael McConnell thinks the debt ceiling is clearly constitutional) but if Biden were to declare he was ignoring the debt ceiling because it’s unconstitutional, it’s not clear that anyone would have legal standing to sue Biden and challenge the decision. That helped encourage a number of political actors, from then-House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to former President Bill Clinton, to urge Obama to invoke the 14th Amendment during his debt ceiling showdowns.

  1. Declare ignoring the debt ceiling to be the “least unconstitutional” option

University of Florida law professor Neil Buchanan and Cornell law professor Michael Dorf have, in a series of papers, proposed a way out of the debt ceiling that’s related to but distinct from the 14th Amendment option.

Buchanan and Dorf note that Congress, by setting spending and tax policy as well as a debt limit, has given the president three mandates: to spend the amount Congress authorizes; to tax the amount Congress authorizes; and to issue as much debt as Congress authorizes. When the debt ceiling is breached, it becomes impossible for the president to obey all three of these legal requirements.

Prioritizing spending on certain activities and cutting it elsewhere usurps Congress’s spending power, by cutting spending unilaterally. Raising taxes without congressional authority would usurp Congress’s taxing power. And ignoring the debt ceiling would usurp Congress’s power to set debt limits.

The last option — respecting Congress’s taxing and spending powers while ignoring its debt limit — is the “least unconstitutional” option, Buchanan and Dorf argue. This judgment would no doubt be challenged in court, but it’s arguably less dramatic than the president unilaterally declaring the debt ceiling a violation of the 14th Amendment.

  1. Issuing quasi-debt while the crisis plays out

Steven Schwarcz, a professor at Duke Law and expert on capital markets, has proposed getting around the debt ceiling by having the Treasury Department create a “special-purpose entity” to issue new securities, distinct from traditional Treasury bonds, that can pay for government expenditures. Because they’re not Treasury bonds, these securities would not be subject to the debt limit.

This may seem bizarre, but Schwarcz got the idea from state and municipal finance in the US; many states raise most of their debt with special-purpose entities, rather than by directly issuing bonds, often so they can get around their own state debt limits.

The debt ceiling needs to end, one way or another

I am personally agnostic as to which of the four above options Biden should choose, if Congress fails to act, and it’s entirely possible there are other options to evade the debt ceiling not listed above. But Biden should choose one of them.

The debt ceiling is a structural feature of the US government that encourages risky, high-stakes crises. Even one former Republican negotiator from the 2011 standoff has urged repealing the limit, given the role it plays in encouraging political instability.

The ceiling is particularly dangerous in the context of the long-run erosion of democratic norms in the US. As scholars like Juan Linz have documented, presidential systems of democracy create two rival centers of legitimacy: the legislature and the president. Presidential systems consequently often experience crises in which these two institutions square off, with each having some claim to speak for the people, making a definitive resolution difficult.

And disturbingly often, these crises are resolved with a coup, either with the president asserting authoritarian powers (as in Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori’s autogolpe or “self- coup” of 1992) or Congress deposing the rightfully elected president (as in the Honduran coup of 2009).

The aftermath of the 2020 election demonstrated that a clear-cut ballot loss can be enough to prompt an attempted self-coup by a sitting president. The debt ceiling creates another such opportunity to delegitimize the government, one which sooner or later the president or Congress will likely seize.

It’s imperative, then, that Biden heads off such a crisis with an assertion of executive power. His opponents may call it a coup, or worse. But they will be wrong. It would be a modest and reasonable increase in executive powers needed to avert a much worse sequence of crises.

Such an action would not be costless. It will be challenged in court, and that could in turn roil the global economy. But the costs of keeping this law on the books are far greater. Biden needs to use all the tools at his disposal to end debt ceiling brinkmanship once and for all.

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