Daily-Dose

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From New Yorker

From Vox

To be sure, deciphering what is a good company and a bad company is not easy — there’s a reason stock-pickers tend to underperform indexes like the S&P 500. Sometimes, the bankrupt companies turn around. And if I want to toss my latest paycheck into a thing I saw float by on r/WallStreetBets, to a certain extent, who’s to stop me?

Many day traders seem to believe they’re in on the joke; they know they’re speculating, and they want to keep their right to it. Plenty of people look at a stock or a cryptocurrency and think they can get in and out and leave someone else holding the bag, and whether that’s good is much more of a moral question than a legal one.

“You’ve got to be realistic,” said Tom Gorman, a securities expert and partner at the law firm Dorsey & Whitney. “If you’re trading like it’s a game, you’re probably going to lose.”

One big issue now is whether investors actually realize the game’s rules and how it may or may not be stacked against them.

There’s a difference between people doing silly things and people being taken advantage of

The house always wins in Las Vegas. On Wall Street, that’s often true, too: Nobody offering you a financial product or touting some new investment is really doing it for your health.

The recent boom in retail investing and day trading has opened up some important questions about whether people are being taken advantage of. In some cases, they may be falling victim to outright lies, scams, and fraud. In others, they’re being nudged in directions they shouldn’t be, or the guardrails are off.

Gary Gensler, the new SEC chair, has said he plans to take a look at what’s going on in the markets with regard to free trading apps, volatility, and individual investors to make sure traders are being protected. That means scrutinizing the gamification of apps such as Robinhood that sometimes encourage people to trade more, which often translates to losing more money. Gensler and multiple others have also raised concerns about payment for order flow, where big market-makers such as Citadel Securities and Virtu pay brokers like Robinhood to process trades, in turn presumably making money off the spread, which is the price difference between the buy and the sell. It’s how a lot of apps offer “free” trading, though the trading isn’t really free.

“Somebody is paying for yours, my order flow. Secondly, they’re getting our data; the data is very valuable,” Gensler said in a recent appearance on CNBC. “So it is zero commission but not necessarily free.”

“That’s what enabled Robinhood to do what they do,” Gorman said. “It’s having the beneficial effect of encouraging these small investors to get in. Now, they’re not getting, maybe, the world’s best execution. They’re getting okay execution.”

In the weeks and months to come, regulators will be working out just how much gamification, if any, should be allowed, or whether payment for order flow is a solid business model, even though without it, commission-free trading might disappear. How much risk people should be able to take, and how knowingly, is a tough needle to thread. Some traders are getting into super-risky options, which is basically gambling, or using margin, meaning they’re playing with money that’s not theirs. And some technologies aren’t just allowing this behavior, they’re encouraging it, even when it’s unclear whether people fully understand the mechanisms in play.

“It’s great to have a lot of new entrants to the market, but that won’t end well if we don’t have any guardrails. We require driver’s licenses and seat belts for cars, but what should we have for financial markets? Clicking the box to say you read a 200-page disclosure isn’t going to protect anyone,” Gellasch said.

Many amateurs have been caught by surprise by how some investment systems work. Some people were shocked when Robinhood shut down trading during the GameStop boom. Those new to bitcoin may have been unaware of its past booms and busts. Much of the time, these types of risks show up in disclosures (though not so much for crypto, which is pretty lightly regulated), but hardly anyone reads the fine print.

SPACs, which are public entities that are expected to eventually merge with a private company and generate money (Recode has an explainer on what they are), are allowed to promise kind of whatever to potential investors. And so many of them do. The rocket builder Astra just went public via SPAC and says it will be launching rockets daily by 2025. It doesn’t even expect to make money in 2021.

“If SPACs blew up a few years earlier, it’s possible that Theranos would have been bought up by a SPAC at an absurd valuation,” Park said, referring to the blood-testing startup run by Elizabeth Holmes that turned out to be a fraud. The SEC has said it’s taking a look at SPACs, too.

Much of the debate here gets at an underlying tension around access to opportunity, even if the chances of things going wrong with said opportunity are greater than the chances of things going right. Many of the most potentially lucrative investments in the private markets are limited to accredited investors, meaning those who are sophisticated enough to take on more risk. “How do they define accredited? If you’re sophisticated. How do they define sophisticated? You’re rich,” said Michael Piwowar, executive director of the Milken Institute Center for Financial Markets and a former Republican member of the SEC.

If there were better opportunities in the economy, maybe people wouldn’t be gambling on AMC

Last year, I talked to a bunch of individual investors for a story on the retail trading boom. Some of them seemed to be making informed decisions; others, not so much. My line was always the same: I hope you’re not playing with money you can’t afford to lose (and if you have gains, they’re not just on paper). But did I hope they couldn’t play at all? Harder to say.

The typical and probably soundest investment advice people get is to put their money into an index fund and never look at it again until it’s time to retire. It is really impossible to time the market or to know where stocks and assets are headed next. If you caught onto bitcoin in 2012 and are now a bitcoin millionaire, good for you. But you are not most people.

Still, it’s hard not to wonder if some of the frenzy around meme stocks and crypto and the like is a reflection of the current economic moment, where for so many people, mobility feels really out of reach.

It’s of course bad for investors to be taken advantage of, to lose their shirts, and to wind up in financial distress. Margin trading for a day trader maybe shouldn’t be allowed; perhaps neither should an ATM at a casino. But you can’t really blame the anonymous traders on Reddit for their financial nihilism when the whole system feels stacked against them.

The stock market soared during the pandemic. It’s not the worst thing in the world that some regular people were along for the ride.

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