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From New Yorker

From Vox

Singer Madison Beer, who has 28.9 million Instagram followers, shares her 2021 Spotify Wrapped to her story.

Spotify’s algorithmic delivery was what initially set it apart from other music streaming platforms, often cited as an important factor in the app’s success in spite of how it relies on tracking data. One user of the app, Kiana McBride, 22, told me, “My Discover Weekly is often fire. Spotify has such good data analytics, it can tell what music I’m likely to enjoy.”

While tracking music data doesn’t seem too murky at first glance, the use of artificial intelligence has been proven to discriminate. Reports have shown how artificial intelligence can be encoded with bias and perpetuate racism. When coupled with video technology or security software, algorithms have also played an integral role in bolstering surveillance capitalism. There have even been reports indicating how the platform’s feature is inaccurate and nefariously marketed. Still, Spotify Wrapped goes viral. Our collective enamoration with this recap reveals the extent to which algorithms have become integrated into the way we conceive of ourselves in digital consumer culture: as brands to be refined.

According to P. David Marshall, a new media and communications professor at Deakin University and a leading scholar on online identity, the concept of “dual strategic personas” deeply informs how people approach what they share on social media. “Dual strategic persona [uses] the word in both ways,” he told me. “Dual as in two, and duel, meaning you’re actually beginning to play in a space that understands the algorithmic transformations.”

Consumers increasingly understand that how they use an app influences the type of content they see, creating a digital double consciousness, where “we realize we’re a digital construction,” but we also realize that “a digital construction is connected to who we are — who we think we are,” said Marshall. In essence, our online selves are still an extension of ourselves; it’s not not a version of personhood. At the same time, it’s a version that is inherently manufactured and performative.

And as is the nature of performance, those on stage are called to act incessantly. We strategically construct a certain perception of ourselves through snippets that, with the help of Spotify Wrapped and other algorithms, become increasingly refined. For instance, sharing a Wrapped roundup on social media can position a person in a particular niche: indie; punk; rock. If the music genres are even more obscure, then that person can move themselves into hyper-specific niches: folktronica; cloud rap; Japanese city pop.

One user of the app, Alfonso Velasquez, 22, told me he loves viewing other people’s Spotify findings because in comparison, “it makes him feel more indie.” He’s speaking to an instinct to curate a brand out of himself — an instinct derived from dominant influencer culture.

“Influencers are in that dual persona structure, working between a corporate version of themselves and a highly individualized version of themselves,” said Marshall. Because of this, they’re “changing our wider transnational culture as to what is normal.”

Another user, Isabel Edreva, 21, told me they view other people’s Spotify findings to “take recs.”

“If someone I really respect has a top song I’ve never heard of,” she explained, “I’m like, ‘Okay, I should listen to it.’”

Many people do not register taking recommendations from Spotify Wrapped as being influenced. But that is the crux of influencer culture.

“We begin to do variations of those things that influencers do,” said Marshall. “They become our way of trying to understand online life, and the way that we begin, as ordinary people, to reconstruct our notion of a differentiated persona.” When internet celebrities such as singer Madison Beer, Musical.ly star and singer Loren Gray, or TikTok-viral musician Laufey post their streaming results, the practice catches on even quicker. Spotify Wrapped is just one example of how the habits of influencers, from what they post down to how they post it, becomes a particular guidebook for everyone on the internet, regardless of who you’re following on social media.

Spotify makes participating in this culture even easier. With a single tap, the content — already made in various coordinating colors — can be shared. The eye-catching graphics are pre-generated. Users can reveal a little about themselves with low stakes and minimal participation, thoughtlessly mimicking how influencers mine their likes and interests to become a brand.

 Screenshot from @loren on Instagram

Influencer Loren Gray, who has 22.2 million Instagram followers, shares her 2021 Spotify Wrapped to her story.

Perhaps it’s this seamless participation with instant brand- building rewards that makes the suspiciousness of having your data tracked on the platform pale in comparison. “It’s just songs,” a user of the app, Sophronia Barone, 21, told me. “I guess it’s no big deal.”

Is it just songs, though? When analyzing the back end of the app, a team of five researchers behind the 2019 study “Spotify Teardown: Inside the Black Box of Streaming Music” made clear that algorithms do not exist in a vacuum. They wrote, “Scholars have demonstrated how algorithmic content delivery has implications for the production of gender, race, and other categorizations. Users are invited — or obliged — to have their listening habits turned into “taste profiles,” which are measured using a set of parameters.”

Spotify has not made public what these categories are, but the academics ascertained that gender is certainly one of them. They noted that Paul Lamere, the director of the music intelligence and data platform, Echo Nest (which was acquired by Spotify in 2014), provided data based on listening habits by gender in a 2014 blog post. The researchers found that self-reporting your gender is a mandatory part of the platform’s sign-up process and, further, is listed as one of the types of information that Spotify collects and shares under their privacy policy, “indicat[ing] that gender is perceived as vital to the functioning of Spotify, at least for marketing purposes.”

They also discovered the company knows your IP address, meaning location, nationality, and by proxy, social class. Another study by the Bank of England found that Spotify data can even reveal user moods. It’s not unreasonable, then, to assume that Spotify can deduce a good chunk of your socioeconomic demographic, narrowing down ethnicity, age, and perhaps even sexuality if you listen to specific podcasts, like Spotify’s popular Queerology. (And after a priest’s sexuality was recently outed by a Catholic publication via his phone’s location data, it’s clear that this information has real- life consequences.) Spotify then capitalizes off that information by selling it to companies, to which demographic profiles are akin to gold.

Spotify, of course, isn’t the only company to find success at marketing algorithms back to consumers: Everything from DigiScents, which promises to perfume your home based on your web browsing history, to TikTok, the most popular social media app of the moment, is all about algorithmic-based viewing and encourages us to buy a ridiculous amount of stuff. Meet AI culture, the new age of digitized capitalism, where the consumer is endlessly stuck in their own feedback loop. If you open an app, you inherently give companies free labor in the form of web traffic, AdSense, and taste profiles, only for those apps to sell your profile and user identity — what is essentially you — to others and then eventually, back to yourself. These companies push us toward algorithmic-based viewing, and not only do we lap up what their data reveals about us, but we also eagerly share it for others to see.

We do so in the name of self-branding. Because in the end, we get one more quantifiable piece to add to our ultra-specific, online persona. For a fleeting moment, we can all be influencers, too. “I like that Spotify is sharing their stats with you,” said McBride. It’s “like you’re an MLB star for listening to music.”

These 5 leading indicators will help experts figure out how much of a threat omicron really is.

For now, the whole world is waiting for scientists to figure out how much of a threat the omicron coronavirus variant actually is.

That will take several weeks at least, according to experts. Science will need to answer big questions about how transmissible the new variant is, how well it overcomes the immunity conferred by inoculation or prior infection, whether it causes more severe illness than other variations of the virus, and so on.

But as that work goes on, there are several indicators to monitor in the next few weeks — none dispositive on their own, but which, taken together, should start to give us a better idea of what we are facing.

  1. Cases in South Africa

We don’t actually know that the omicron variant originated in South Africa or Botswana, the countries that alerted the world to it. They were just the first to detect it, thanks to their world-leading genetic sequencing capabilities.

Nevertheless, because it is really good at sequencing, South Africa is an early omicron “hot zone” that should have one of the most complete pictures of how the variant is affecting the virus’s spread. Experts are already watching the country closely to see how much cases rise in the coming days.

So far, the answer has been: quite a lot. At the beginning of November, South Africa was seeing about 349 new Covid-19 cases every day on average. As of December 1, it is averaging almost 3,800 new cases daily.

 Our World In Data

Experts say other factors could be contributing to that steep increase, like South Africa’s low vaccination rate (29 percent of its people have had at least one dose), as well as possible superspreader events.

The question will be how much omicron alone is driving the surge and how much cases there ultimately swell. The more they spike, the more reason for concern.

  1. Hospitalizations in Israel

Case numbers will give us some idea whether omicron is driving new surges. Another key question is whether it causes more severe illness than the delta variant, with more people developing serious symptoms, ending up in the hospital, and possibly dying.

That would portend a much grimmer picture of the future than if the variant were to prove to be less dangerous than delta. And while there has been early speculation on this, we do not have nearly enough information to say confidently which way it will go.

One metric to watch, according to experts: What happens to hospitalization numbers in Israel? It’s another country that is very good at tracking Covid data. It’s also a rich country with comparable vaccination levels to the US and an aggressive booster strategy. It could be a microcosm of what the United States can expect from omicron.

“Israel is pretty responsive in terms of taking action, also well vaccinated and boosted,” Bill Hanage, a Harvard University epidemiologist, told me. “A proxy for a place that mostly does things right and an early indicator of what can be expected in similar places.”

Omicron has been detected in Israel, but it’s still early. Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator: It takes time for a person to contract the virus and then develop serious enough symptoms that they go to the hospital.

 Our World In Data

  1. The share of omicron among US Covid-19 cases

Omicron could take over the pandemic, like delta — or fizzle like beta and gamma, variants you’ve probably already forgotten about. One way to tell if it’s becoming dominant is that the share of cases — in the US and elsewhere — caused by omicron will start rising.

To provide some context, when the delta variant took over, it grew from a tiny fraction of all cases (about 1 percent in May) to the vast majority (99 percent by August) in three months. For now, 99.9 percent of samples being sequenced here are the delta variant, as the chart below from the CDC illustrates.

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“Delta is still the dominant variant in the US,” Jen Kates, director of HIV and global health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told me, “and that should be the prime concern for anyone.”

But if omicron is the next dominant variant, that should start to change soon. We know omicron is in the United States already; what we don’t know is whether it can outcompete delta. This metric is where that answer will ultimately show up.

  1. Intrinsic transmissibility

The first three indicators are straightforward and easy for everyone to grasp: Are cases rising? Are hospitalizations increasing? Is omicron making up a bigger share of infections? Simple stuff.

But there are two more worth monitoring that are much more technical, but crucial to understanding omicron’s transmission.

The first is known as intrinsic transmissibility, as described by virologist Trevor Bedford of Fred Hutch on Twitter.

In brief, that means: Assuming nobody had immunity against any form of Covid-19, how quickly would the omicron variant spread through the population? For each infected person, how many more people would they infect? This is the R0 metric you might recall from the spring of 2020.

As scientists identify more omicron cases and gather more data on the people who are getting infected with it, they will be better able to estimate what that R0 actually is. As Bedford explained, some rough math based on the early data from South Africa suggests omicron’s R0 may fall anywhere from roughly 3 (meaning one infected person would infect three more people on average) to 6 or more.

That’s a huge range. In practical terms, that means omicron could be anywhere from less infectious than the original version of Covid-19 to more contagious than delta, already by far the most transmissible variant to come along.

Again, based on wildly divergent spike protein, I’m guessing that immune escape will be substantial and so I still suspect that it’s quite possible that Omicron will show lower intrinsic transmissibility than Delta. My updated diagram. 16/18 pic.twitter.com/T4vuiEN75I

— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) December 1, 2021

  1. Immune escapability

But, to complicate the issue further, we live in a world where some people have immunity to Covid-19, at varying levels. People have been vaccinated, or they’ve been infected with other versions of the virus and recovered. Omicron’s ability to evade this immunity will also factor significantly into its ability to transmit in the real world.

Figuring that out will depend on more sequencing to identify omicron cases and more information on which patients are contracting the variant. Then scientists can plug the statistics into their models and more accurately project how often vaccinated people or people infected by the previous variants are coming down with omicron. There also might be a difference between how well the variant can elude natural immunity versus immunity via vaccination. With delta, one CDC study found unvaccinated people were more prone to reinfection than vaccinated people.

Combining intrinsic transmissibility and immune escapability should give us a better idea of how quickly omicron is likely to spread. But it’s still worth knowing to what degree transmission is being driven by unvaccinated people who are being infected for the first time, versus those who were vaccinated or have recovered from Covid-19.

If the omicron variant has high intrinsic transmissibility but low immune escapability, then the primary threat is to unvaccinated people. That would indicate the vaccines are holding up well against it, but the virus could tear through unprotected populations.

But another possibility is that omicron has relatively low intrinsic transmissibility, but higher immune escapability. Unvaccinated people are still fully vulnerable to the virus in that scenario. But that would also mean vaccinated people could be at higher risk than they currently are, and omicron-specific boosters might even be necessary.

“High immune escape, lower intrinsic transmissibility is not necessarily a good thing,” Bedford pointed out. “Higher immune escape places previously infected and vaccinated individuals more at risk.”

It will take time to answer those questions. But only once they are answered will we really know how much omicron will alter the course of the pandemic.

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