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+ + + +Valacyclovir Plus Celecoxib for Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 - Conditions: Long COVID; PASC Post Acute Sequelae of COVID 19
Interventions: Drug: Valacyclovir celecoxib dose 1; Drug: Valacyclovir celecoxib dose 2; Drug: Placebo
Sponsors: Bateman Horne Center
Recruiting
Supervised Computerized Active Program for People With Post-COVID Syndrome (SuperCAP Study) - Conditions: Post-COVID Condition
Interventions: Device: SuperCAP Program
Sponsors: FundaciĂłn FLS de Lucha Contra el Sida, las Enfermedades Infecciosas y la PromociĂłn de la Salud y la Ciencia; Institut de Recerca de la SIDA IrsiCaixa; Germans Trias i Pujol Hospital
Recruiting
Utilizing Novel Blood RNA Biomarkers as a Diagnostic Tool in the Identification of Long COVID-19 - Conditions: Long COVID
Interventions: Diagnostic Test: RNA Biomarker Blood Test
Sponsors: MaxWell Clinic, PLC
Recruiting
Home-Based Circuit Training in Overweight/Obese Older Adult Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis and Type 2 Diabetes - Conditions: Aerobic Exercise; Strength Training; Glycemic Control; Blood Pressure; Oxidative Stress; Metabolic Syndrome
Interventions: Behavioral: 12-week home-based circuit training (HBCT); Behavioral: Standard of care (CONT)
Sponsors: Princess Nourah Bint Abdulrahman University
Completed
RECOVER-AUTONOMIC Platform Protocol - Conditions: Long COVID; Long Covid19; Long Covid-19
Interventions: Drug: IVIG + Coordinated Care; Drug: IVIG Placebo + Coordinated Care; Drug: Ivabradine + Coordinated Care; Drug: Ivabradine Placebo + Coordinated Care; Drug: IVIG + Usual Care; Drug: IVIG Placebo + Usual Care; Drug: Ivabradine + Usual Care; Drug: Ivabradine Placebo + Usual Care
Sponsors: Kanecia Obie Zimmerman
Enrolling by invitation
SVF for Treating Pulmonary Fibrosis Post COVID-19 - Conditions: Pulmonary Fibrosis
Interventions: Biological: Autologous adipose-derived SVF IV administration
Sponsors: Michael H Carstens; Ministerio de Salud de Nicaragua; Wake Forest University; National Autonomous University of Nicaragua
Completed
RECOVER-AUTONOMIC: Platform Protocol, Appendix B (Ivabradine) - Conditions: Long COVID; Long Covid19; Long Covid-19
Interventions: Drug: Ivabradine; Drug: Ivabradine Placebo; Behavioral: Coordinated Care; Behavioral: Usual Care
Sponsors: Kanecia Obie Zimmerman
Enrolling by invitation
RECOVER-AUTONOMIC: Platform Protocol, Appendix A (IVIG) - Conditions: Long COVID; Long Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid19); Long Covid-19
Interventions: Drug: IVIG (intravenous immunoglobulin); Drug: IVIG Placebo; Behavioral: Coordinated Care; Behavioral: Usual Care
Sponsors: Kanecia Obie Zimmerman
Enrolling by invitation
The antiviral potential of the antiandrogen enzalutamide and the viral-androgen signaling interplay in seasonal coronaviruses - The sex disparity in COVID-19 outcomes with males generally faring worse than females has been associated with the androgen-regulated expression of the protease TMPRSS2 and the cell receptor ACE2 in the lung and fueled interest in antiandrogens as potential antivirals. In this study, we explored enzalutamide, an antiandrogen used commonly to treat prostate cancer, as a potential antiviral against the human coronaviruses which cause seasonal respiratory infections (HCoV-NL63, -229E, and -OC43)âŠ.
Potential use of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibition and prevention method in viral infection - Cellular lipid membranes serve as the primary barrier preventing viral infection of the host cell and provide viruses with a critical initial point of contact. Occasionally, viruses can utilize lipids as viral receptors. Viruses depend significantly on lipid rafts for infection at virtually every stage of their life cycle. The pivotal role that proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin Type 9 (PCSK9) plays in cholesterol homeostasis and atherosclerosis, primarily by post-transcriptionallyâŠ
Phosphatidylserine-exposing extracellular vesicles in body fluids are an innate defence against apoptotic mimicry viral pathogens - Some viruses are rarely transmitted orally or sexually despite their presence in saliva, breast milk, or semen. We previously identified that extracellular vesicles (EVs) in semen and saliva inhibit Zika virus infection. However, the antiviral spectrum and underlying mechanism remained unclear. Here we applied lipidomics and flow cytometry to show that these EVs expose phosphatidylserine (PS). By blocking PS receptors, targeted by Zika virus in the process of apoptotic mimicry, they interfereâŠ
Diammonium Glycyrrhizinate Inhibited Inflammatory Response and Modulated Serum Metabolism in Poly(I:C)-induced Pneumonia Model Mice - Currently, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is becoming a serious threat to human health worldwide. Therefore, there is a great need to develop effective drugs against viral pneumonia. Diammonium glycyrrhizinate (DG), derived from Glycyrrhiza glabra L., has been demonstrated with significant anti-inflammatory properties. However, the therapeutic effects and mechanisms of DG on pneumonia require further clarification. In this study, mice received intratracheal injection ofâŠ
Solid-liquid distribution of SARS-CoV-2 in primary effluent of a wastewater treatment plant - Distributions of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and fecal viral biomarkers between solid and liquid phases of wastewater are largely unknown. Herein, distributions of SARS-CoV-2, Pepper Mild Mottle Virus (PMMoV), and F-RNA bacteriophage group II (FRNAPH-II) were determined by viral RNA RT-qPCR. Comparison of viral recovery using three conventional fractionation methods included membrane filtration, a combination of mid-speed centrifugation and membrane filtration,âŠ
Recent advances in the therapeutic potential of nobiletin against respiratory diseases - CONCLUSIONS: With the wide range of pharmacological activities, high efficiency and low toxicity, nobiletin can be used as a potential agent for preventing and treating RDs. These findings will contribute to further research on the molecular mechanisms of nobiletin and facilitate in-depth studies on nobiletin at both preclinical and clinical levels for the treatment of RDs.
Lymphopenia associated with survivin and its downstream pathway in COVID-19 serving as a potential route in COVID-19 pathogenesis - CONCLUSION: The role of survivin and its related pathway was first discovered in the development of COVID-19 and may serve as a potential prognostic and therapeutic target.
Discovery of Covalent Lead Compounds Targeting 3CL Protease with a Lateral Interactions Spiking Neural Network - Covalent drugs exhibit advantages in that noncovalent drugs cannot match, and covalent docking is an important method for screening covalent lead compounds. However, it is difficult for covalent docking to screen covalent compounds on a large scale because covalent docking requires determination of the covalent reaction type of the compound. Here, we propose to use deep learning of a lateral interactions spiking neural network to construct a covalent lead compound screening model to quicklyâŠ
Establishment, Optimization and validation of a fluorescence polarization-based high-throughput screening assay targeting Cathepsin L inhibitors - Cathepsin L (CTSL), a lysosomal cysteine proteinase, is primarily dedicated to the metabolic turnover of intracellular proteins. It is involved in various physiological processes and contributes to pathological conditions such as viral infection, tumor invasion and metastasis, inflammatory status, atherosclerosis, renal disease, diabetes, bone diseases, and other ailments. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with its rapid global spread and significant mortality, has been a worldwideâŠ
C1q enables influenza hemagglutinin stem binding antibodies to block viral attachment and broadens the antibody escape repertoire - Antigenic drift, the gradual accumulation of amino acid substitutions in the influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) receptor protein, enables viral immune evasion. Antibodies (Abs) specific for the drift-resistant HA stem region are a promising universal influenza vaccine target. Although anti-stem Abs are not believed to block viral attachment, here we show that complement component 1q (C1q), a 460-kilodalton protein with six Ab Fc-binding domains, confers attachment inhibition to anti-stem Abs andâŠ
Molecular docking and molecular dynamic simulation-based phytoconstituents against SARS-CoV-2 with dual inhibition of the primary protease targets - A novel coronavirus has caused major health problems and is spreading globally. The main protease enzyme plays a significant role in the number of copies of ss-RNA produced during the proteolytic cleavage of polypeptides. This work aims to find possible dual inhibitors of the 3-Chymotrypsin-like proteases PDB-6W63 and 6LU7 which increase efficiency and faster inhibition activity. By using an in-silico technique, polyphenols are molecularly docked against these targets to inhibit proteaseâŠ
N-Arylsulfonamide-based adenosine analogues to target RNA cap N7-methyltransferase nsp14 of SARS-CoV-2 - RNA cap methylations have been shown to be crucial for the life cycle, replication, and infection of ssRNA viruses, as well as for evading the hostâs innate immune system. Viral methyltransferases (MTases) therefore represent an attractive target for the development of compounds as tools and inhibitors. In coronaviruses, N7-methyltransferase function is localized in nsp14, which has become an increasingly important therapeutic target with the COVID-19 pandemic. In recent years, we have beenâŠ
Unusual NiNi interaction in Ni(ii) complexes as potential inhibitors for the development of new anti-SARS-CoV-2 Omicron drugs - Two nickel(ii) coordination complexes Ni(L)(1) and Ni(L)(2) of a tetradentate Schiff base ligand (H(2)L) derived from 2-hydroxy-1-naphthaldehyde with ethylenediamine were synthesized, designed, and characterized via spectroscopic and single crystal XRD analyses. Both nickel(ii) complexes exhibited unusual NiâŻNi interactions and were fully characterized via single-crystal X-ray crystallography. Nickel(ii) complexes Ni(L)(1) and Ni(L)(2) crystallize in monoclinic and triclinicâŠ
Integrating virtual screening, pharmacoinformatics profiling, and molecular dynamics: identification of promising inhibitors targeting 3CLpro of SARS-CoV-2 - Introduction: The pursuit of effective therapeutic solutions for SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 necessitates the repurposing of existing compounds. This study focuses on the detailed examination of the central protease, 3-chymotrypsin-like protease (3CLpro), a pivotal player in virus replication. The combined approach of molecular dynamics simulations and virtual screening is employed to identify potential inhibitors targeting 3CLpro. Methods: A comprehensive virtual screening of 7120âŠ
TRIM6 facilitates SARS-CoV-2 proliferation by catalyzing the K29-typed ubiquitination of NP to enhance the ability to bind viral genomes - The Nucleocapsid Protein (NP) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is not only the core structural protein required for viral packaging, but also participates in the regulation of viral replication, and its post-translational modifications such as phosphorylation have been shown to be an important strategy for regulating virus proliferation. Our previous work identified NP could be ubiquitinated, as confirmed by two independent studies. But the function of NPâŠ
The Aftermath of Chinaâs Comedy Crackdown - Standup flourished during the pandemic. Now performers fear the stateâand audience members. - link
What Have Fourteen Years of Conservative Rule Done to Britain? - Living standards have fallen. The country is exhausted by constant drama. But the U.K. canât move on from the Tories without facing up to the damage that has occurred. - link
Lila Neugebauer Interrogates the Ghosts of âUncle Vanyaâ - A director of the modern uncanny steers the first Broadway production of Chekhovâs masterpiece in twenty years. - link
Bryan Stevenson Reclaims the Monument, in the Heart of the Deep South - The civil-rights attorney has created a museum, a memorial, and, now, a sculpture park, indicting the city of Montgomeryâa former capital of the domestic slave trade and the cradle of the Confederacy. - link
A Dutch Architectâs Vision of Cities That Float on Water - What if building on the water could be safer and sturdier than building on flood-prone land? - link
+Why a really great word game makes you feel smart, and also stupid. +
++What do the words âloo,â âcondo,â âhaw,â âheroâ have in common? Unless youâre extremely into ornithology, itâs impressive if you were able to pick out the fact that if you added another letter to each of them, youâd spell the name of a bird. But if youâre a regular player of the New York Times game Connections, these four words have another significance: They make up one of the puzzleâs most notoriously tricky categories of all time. +
++Connections â an often frustrating but integral addition to a morning routine that might also include the Timesâs daily crossword, Wordle, and Spelling Bee, or offshoots like the geography quiz Worldle and the GDP guesser Tradle â debuted last summer. Over the past nine months, itâs become the second-most played game at the Times, after Wordle, but itâs captured social media in a way that a simple five-letter word-of-the-day puzzle never could. +
++Connections is played like so: There is a four-by-four grid, and each box has a word in it. Your job is to group them into sets of four that make sense on levels that go from easy (say, synonyms or simply defined categories) to difficult (the bird one). When submitted, the easiest group will show up in yellow, the second-easiest in green, the second-hardest in blue, and the hardest in purple. +
++++@darasprivstory + ++#greenscreen #nyt #connections #nytconnections #wordle +
+⏠original sound - dara +
+You can see how this might make people feel angry or, as one woman posted on TikTok, like sheâs âimmediately ready to fightâ the gameâs editor. Thatâs because Connections, even more so than crosswords, whose difficulty ratings are usually made clear from the outset, or Wordle, which relies heavily on luck, has the unique ability to make people feel either really, really smart or really, really stupid. +
++In a post titled âWhy NYTâs Connections makes you feel bad,â game designer Raph Koster suggests Connections is âfundamentally elitistâ because it requires players to have a broad education to find possible categories, and then punishes them for making guesses (players have only four tries before they fail the game). Some puzzles may be easier for certain folks â in order to know that âemerald,â âradiant,â âprincess,â and âbaguetteâ go together, youâve got to have some knowledge of jewelry â and be extra difficult for those frustrated by potential overlap. +
++One recent puzzle included five answers that could work for the yellow (easiest) category, âseen at a sports stadiumâ: âastroturf,â âjumbotron,â âscoreboard,â âskybox,â and âkisscam.â Only the last one works for the purple (hardest) one, which was âstarting with rock bands.â But thereâs no way to tell whether a puzzle will be easy or hard until youâre playing it â thereby leading to the kind of near-conspiratorial thinking and Connections shaming on Reddit, Twitter, and TikTok. Complaining on Twitter about how hard that dayâs Connections was is a risk in itself, and it more often than not ends with other people smugly commenting how âmaybe word games arenât for youâ and posting memes that tell the poster to âtake your sensitive ass back to Wordle!â They do have a point, however: The point of doing puzzles is to feel puzzled. +
+++https://t.co/Sn2IpGORCG pic.twitter.com/Gb6CrQh94a +
+â zou bisou bisou where are you (@lilgrapefruits) February 27, 2024 +
+According to Everdeen Mason, the editorial director of the Timesâs Games section, these theories about Connections suddenly âgetting harderâ based on social media discourse are both hilarious and wrong â mostly. âWe see everything, and we think pretty much all of it is funny,â she says of the people livestreaming their games and teasing each other over their results. âConnections in particular has felt really special, in part because of TikTok. I donât know that any of our other games have really taken off in the same way. The game itself is pretty witty, and people can feel that and want to riff on it. It just makes it really memeable.â +
++The idea that the Connections editor, Wyna Liu, changes the difficulty in response to social chatter is untrue â games are programmed about a month in advance â with the exception of one period last October, before the Connections team started using official testers. Testers, who are paid and selected by Games staff, are used for all Times games to help look out for potentially incorrect or offensive puzzles, or grids where there could be multiple correct solves. âThere were a couple of weeks where the solve rates were really low, and we were like, âWe need to do something about this.ââ +
++âItâs pretty much always the purple category that people are crankiest about,â Mason says. She points to the bird category and another purple set in February made of words beginning with instruments (âbassinet,â âcellophane,â âharpoon,â âorganismâ) as particularly frustrating for solvers. Of course, the frustration is part of the fun, and itâs why Connections was an immediate hit from its 90-day beta release last summer. Its full release, however, caused a small controversy because of its similarities to the British quiz show Only Connect, which also asks contestants to group a grid of 16 words into four sets of four. The gameâs host, Victoria Coren, responded to the launch of Connections on Twitter, asking, âDo you know this has been a TV show in the UK since 2008?! Itâs so similar I guess you must do?â The Times has denied copying the format. +
++Connections is also, crucially, much easier to solve than Only Connectâs grids, and audiences got obsessed quickly. Itâs a similar story to Wordle, which debuted in 2021 and went viral in 2022, its characteristic colored block emojis making for the perfect shareable signature. More than that, Wordle avoids a common problem with games â playing too much too quickly and burning out â by only releasing a single game per day, which is also the model Connections and Spelling Bee use. None of these games has the power to take over your whole life in the way that, say, a super engrossing new video game might. And even though youâre technically only in competition with yourself, theyâre fundamentally social games: Grids and scores are easily shareable online and make for solid conversation starters with pretty much anyone. +
++Liu has responded to the conversations on TikTok by posting her tips on how to play. Most importantly, she says, donât guess unless youâre pretty sure you have a category. Second, look for words that donât belong anywhere else. Last, think flexibly â âmy job here is to trick you,â she says. +
++Games have been a hugely successful bet for the Times. The company told Axios that its puzzles, which were played more than 8 billion times in 2023 (including 2.3 billion Connections successes), have contributed to subscriber growth in a tough media market. Up next: a word search called Strands thatâs currently in beta mode. Judging from the discourse itâs already sparked online, it seems to be yet another puzzle for solvers to argue about in comments sections and Reddit threads. In other words, a hit. +
++Though the New York Times debuted and then shuttered the math game Digits last year, something about word games seems to stick. âItâs our main medium of communication,â Mason says. âThey make people feel engaged and intelligent, but theyâre also accessible. You can take something away: a new vocab word, a new perspective, new connections between things.â Personally, Iâll never look at the word âkisscamâ in the same way again. +
++
++
++A century of history of Black country music, explained by Alice Randall. +
++If you somehow havenât heard: BeyoncĂ©âs Cowboy Carter, her eighth studio album and the much-anticipated sequel to Renaissance, drops on Friday. Its lead single âTexas Hold âEmâ made history when it debuted at the top of the country charts last month. +
++âI feel honored to be the first Black woman with the number one single on the Hot Country Songs chart,â BeyoncĂ© wrote in an Instagram post last week. +
++With this album, sheâs not just racking up downloads and inspiring TikTok dances, sheâs also drawing attention to the whitewashing of a genre that has long silenced its Black voices â and, predictably, drawing backlash from country music gatekeepers. +
++For over a century, Black artists have been central to country music â and for just as long, their work has been overlooked or undercompensated by the predominantly white country music establishment. +
++Just ask songwriter, educator, and New York Times bestselling novelist Alice Randall. Sheâs the first Black woman to co-write a No. 1 country song, with Trisha Yearwoodâs 1995 hit âXXXs and OOOs,â and has written many other country hits ⊠all of which were performed by white artists. +
++âI thought I was going to retire from country and never seeâ the day a Black woman would hit the top of the charts, she told Vox. +
++Randall, who teaches about the Black roots of country music and has a book coming out on the subject, told Today, Explained host Noel King that BeyoncĂ©âs success was an effort nearly a century in the making. +
++Letâs dig into some of that centuryâs highlights! +
++Randall traces Black countryâs recorded origins to DeFord Baileyâs 1927 harmonica performance of âPan American Bluesâ onstage at the Grand Ole Opry in Nashville. +
++Despite Baileyâs popularity, he endured racism while touring the Jim Crow South with white Opry performers. +
++âDeFord was able to defy and evade the structural obstacles created to keep his voice off the radio and to keep him out of the public. But he never did have the same opportunities that his white contemporaries had,â Randall said. +
++The next great to know, she says, would be Memphis-born Black pianist, Lil Hardin Armstrong, for playing on âBlue Yodel #9â with her husband Louis Armstrong on trumpet and Jimmie Rodgers on vocals. Only, at the time, you wouldnât have known either Armstrong was behind the work: Only Rodgersâs name was put on the 1930 record, and many listeners considered it a white song. +
++âOften they took the exact same recording and marketed it, one to a white audience and one to a Black audience, sometimes changing the name of the group,â Randall said. âThereâs a lot of cultural redlining that is actually separating things that are not intrinsically separate.â +
++Then in the 1960s and â70s, Black country stars tried to make their mark â with differing levels of success. +
++Charley Pride became a breakout country superstar with 52 top-10 hits on the Billboard Hot Country Songs chart. He had a remarkable rise from a Negro Leagues baseball player to appearing at the Grand Ole Opry in 1967 (the first Black performer to grace its stage since DeFord Baileyâs last appearance in 1941) to winning Entertainer of the Year at the Country Music Association Awards in 1971. +
++But when Prideâs debut album was released, the label deliberately omitted any mention of his race and didnât put his face on the cover. +
++âThey wanted people to fall in love with the voice in the records first,â Randall said. +
++Linda Martell didnât share the same success. Her one and only album, Color Me Country, was released in 1970 on Plantation Records, and she was the first Black female country artist to perform at the Opry. +
++âItâs an extraordinary album,â Randall said. âSheâs on Hee Haw, sheâs on the Opry, but she never goes incognegro. The very first time she comes out as a Black woman, there just isnât the traction. She experiences myriad micro and macro aggressions navigating Nashville. She is not allowed in this space.â +
++Randall says Ray Charlesâs 1962 blockbuster record Modern Sounds in Country and Western Music is arguably the most important country album, and certainly the most important Black country album, until this moment. +
++âIt was constructing and deconstructing country music,â she said â something of a spiritual predecessor to Cowboy Carter. +
+ ++Black artists have made more inroads into mainstream country music in recent years, but not without challenges. +
++Darius Rucker has won a Grammy and scored 10 No. 1 hits since leaving Hootie and the Blowfish, but was told that audiences âwould never accept a Black country singer.â +
++Country fans accused âOld Town Roadâ singer Lil Nas X of âcultural appropriationâ for wearing a cowboy hat â even though Black cowboys have a long history in the American West. +
++Other Black women country musicians with massive songwriting and vocal talents have struggled to break through to mainstream success. +
++BeyoncĂ© herself weathered backlash after performing Lemonadeâs boot-stomping country hit âDaddy Lessonsâ with the Dixie Chicks (now known as The Chicks), at the CMA Awards in 2016. +
++While evolving the genre in her own way, BeyoncĂ© is âpreserving and spotlighting past genius, while manifesting her own present genius, and creating a path forward for further innovation,â Randall said. +
++She links BeyoncĂ©âs second single off the album, â16 Carriages,â to other iconic country songs: the Carter Familyâs mournful âCan the Circle Be Unbroken,â Tennessee Ernie Fordâs rendition of the coal minerâs lament âSixteen Tons,â Deana Carterâs ode to lost innocence in âStrawberry Wine,â and Randallâs own âXXXâs and OOOâsâ about the balance between love and money. +
++âNo one again can say a Black woman canât chart. No one again can say â which is a thing that was unfortunately said around town â âBring me the right Black woman, bring me the one thatâs pretty enough, who sings well enough and has some songs, and weâll make her a star.ââ +
++Instead, Beyonceâs star power is bringing in audiences outside the typical country fan base âbecause some music is being served up that is just irresistible.â +
++If youâre feeling inspired to keep listening, check out this playlist Today, Explained pulled together on Spotify! +
++This story appeared originally in Today, Explained, Voxâs flagship daily newsletter. Sign up here for future editions. +
++
+And how it could fizzle. +
++Artificial intelligence is already making people rich. Jensen Huang, the co-founder and CEO of chip company Nvidia, which controls 80 percent of the data-center AI chip market, has seen his net worth explode from a mere $4 billion five years ago to a staggering $83.1 billion as of March 24 on the back of bottomless demand for his companyâs product. +
++ChatGPT maker OpenAI is reportedly valued at $86 billion, with rivals Anthropic and Inflection at $15 billion and $4 billion as of their most recent funding rounds. While OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says he owns no shares in the company, itâs possible, even likely, that other AI founders and execs have joined the three commas club by now, at least on paper. +
++But some researchers think this is only the beginning â that AI wonât just make a few techies wildly rich, the way social networking, smartphones, and personal computers did before. Believers in a growth explosion argue that AI is set to make society much, much richer by causing economic growth at a scale it has never experienced before. +
+ ++This is an extremely âbig if trueâ claim. Since good record-keeping began shortly after World War II, the US has averaged 3.2 percent economic growth per year. Since 2000, growth has been much more anemic, averaging 2.2 percent. Per capita growth â which is affected by population changes as well as economic ones â has been lower still. +
++Nowhere before in history â not in England during the Industrial Revolution, not in Japan during its âincome doublingâ period in the 1960s, not in China in recent decades â has sustained growth on the scale of 20 to 30 percent per year happened. To put that number into perspective, 30 percent growth implies that the economy would double in size every 2.5 years or so. (Based on current growth levels, the US economy wonât double for 35 years.) +
++It gets even more impressive when you take a longer view. Northwestern economist Ben Jones has noted the typical American today is about 100 times richer than humans were when economic growth began and we were all living at the edge of starvation. In a system of 30 percent growth per capita, in 25 years weâd be 1,000 times richer than we are now. +
++Imagine everything humans have achieved since the days when we lived in caves: wheels, writing, bronze and iron smelting, pyramids and the Great Wall, ocean-traversing ships, mechanical reaping, railroads, telegraphy, electricity, photography, film, recorded music, laundry machines, television, the internet, cellphones. Now imagine accomplishing 10 times all that â in just a quarter century. +
++This is a very, very, very strange world weâre contemplating. Itâs strange enough that itâs fair to wonder whether itâs even possible. Personally, 30 percent growth is so far outside human experience to date that I have trouble even imagining what it might look like. +
++AI could be just another useful technology, akin to a washing machine. In this view, it makes our lives a little better, like most technological improvements. +
++But AI could also be something else entirely that would upend the assumptions weâve used to understand the world around us for centuries. +
++In his 2021 report, Davidson lays out three general arguments for why such a dramatic explosion in economic growth might be possible. +
++The first argument is historic. In an earlier report for Open Philanthropy, researcher David Roodman looked at the trajectory of the world economy in the very, very long run â all the way back to 10,000 BCE. He concluded that the pattern of economic growth, examined through this very wide lens, is superexponential. Exponential growth means the economy grows by a steady, compounding rate every year â 2 or 3 percent, say â like interest in your savings account. Superexponential growth means that the growth rate is increasing over time. That, Roodman concludes, is what has in fact happened. +
++Roodman emphasizes that you should take this with several grains of salt. Itâs not like we have good data on what the world economy was like in 10,000 BCE. But we do know, with a high degree of confidence, that economic growth was very slow for a very long time and then accelerated a great deal with the onset of the Industrial Revolution. +
++That fits a superexponential story. And a superexponential story makes future increases in the rate of economic growth look very plausible. âSome people have the prior of âThis is crazyââ when thinking about superexponential growth, Davidson told me in an interview. âAnd other people have the prior of âThis has happened throughout history.ââ +
++Davidsonâs second argument relies on a popular set of theories within economics for why growth has accelerated over the very long run. The short answer these theories give is that population growth enabled economic growth to speed up. +
++âA long time ago, the world population was relatively small and the productivity of this population at producing ideas was extremely low,â Stanford economist Chad Jones explains in a 2001 paper. âOnce an idea was discovered, however, consumption and fertility rose, producing a rise in population growth. More people were then available to find new ideas, and the next new idea was discovered more quickly.â +
++Or, as Davidson summarizes: âmore ideas â better farming techniques (or other innovations) â more food â more people â more ideas â âŠâ That feedback loop leads not just to economic growth but to accelerating economic growth. +
++This type of theory also explains why growth has slowed down in rich countries compared to where it was in the 19th century. In a process known as the âdemographic transition,â people in richer countries tend to choose, for a variety of reasons, to have fewer children. This breaks the feedback loop because more ideas leading to more food no longer necessarily leads to more people. +
++But now, imagine that researchers are able to build two-legged robots, with hands and arms and everything, capable of performing both any physical task a human can and anything on a computer a human can. Weâre talking full Blade Runner or Battlestar Galactica here (hopefully minus the rebellion). +
++We would be able to build these robots in a much shorter time than the decades it takes to birth, raise, and educate a human worker, and at less expense. So weâd achieve much faster population growth (or at least growth in the population of working robots) and bring back the feedback loop that caused economic growth to accelerate a few centuries ago. The fast-growing population of robots would be able to come up with, and implement, enough economically useful ideas to get the economy going faster and faster and faster. +
++The third argument for transformative growth is based on the conventional model that economists use to study growth in the medium to long run. The classic way of looking at economic growth is sometimes called the Solow-Swan model, after Robert Solow and Trevor Swan, who wrote separate papers developing it in 1956. (Solow died recently, in December 2023.) +
++In this model, the size of the economy â the amount of goods and services being produced in a given year â depends on the amount of labor, the amount of capital, and a measure of productivity. Capital here specifically means tools and property that can be used to make stuff: machines in factories, ovens and dishwashers at restaurants, trademarks and patents that represent ideas you can use to make stuff. +
++One of the most important aspects of this model is that there are diminishing returns to additional labor and additional capital. Thatâs because you need both to do anything useful. If you have a coffee shop with five baristas and no espresso machines, the first espresso machine is going to make them vastly more productive. But the 200th machine will do nothing because five baristas canât run 200 machines simultaneously. Similarly, if you have 200 machines and no baristas, the first barista you hire is going to be enormously valuable. The 1,000th will be useless. +
++Put human-level AI into this model and a bunch of things can happen that make superexponential growth look likely. AI could, for instance, make returns to capital constant, rather than diminishing. Thatâs because you can always invest in capital (namely, robots or other AI) instead of labor and get the same effect as if youâd hired someone. +
++You can buy a robo-barista instead, and make all those espresso machines hum. That makes the labor component of growth literally irrelevant. Growth will explode. (Good.) But because demand for human labor will plunge to zero, most of humanity will be jobless and likely not share in that growth. (Bad.) +
++Economists Philip Trammell and Anton Korinek have reviewed some 25 ways of plugging AI into this standard model, as well as more recent âendogenousâ models that treat technical change differently. Many of these approaches result in a prediction of superexponential growth. Advanced AI could automate research, fueling accelerating growth in productivity. It could increase the rate of return on investment in capital by making capital more useful (you have great robots now!), which spurs people to save more, which leads to more investment in capital, and so on. The exact mechanism varies based on the model and scenario, but itâs not hard to get the models to spit out a substantial acceleration in economic growth. +
++The models, of course, are just models, and inserting AI puts them âout of sampleâ: Theyâre designed for scenarios like the present, where human-level automation does not exist. But theyâre also not just models: They express coherent stories and processes through which explosive growth could happen. Itâs not hard to see how automating research, for instance, could lead to technology improving rapidly, with massive economic consequences. +
++âThere is no shortage of mechanisms through which advances in automation could have transformative growth consequences,â Trammell and Korinek conclude, âonce we allow ourselves to look for them.â +
++If the above all feels very speculative and theoretical, thatâs fair. We have never had an AI-driven growth explosion before, and the effects of information technology on growth to date have been famously meager. In the US, the advent of personal computers coincided with a marked decline in productivity growth, not an increase. As Solow once put it, âYou can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.â +
++Beyond the surface-level sci-fi-ness of this narrative, though, economists and others have raised more specific doubts, many of which have less to do with what human-level AI would do than with whether we can achieve human-level AI any time soon. +
++In the above section, I asked you to imagine a robot in the style of Battlestar Galactica or Blade Runner, capable of doing all labor, both physical and intellectual, that a human can do. But weâre obviously a long, long, long way away from the existence of anything like that. Robotics has tended to lag behind software AI in recent years, and while some observers foresee that changing, itâs hardly guaranteed. +
++So itâs important to consider the economic impact of AI that can do most but not all of what a human can do. There are good reasons to doubt explosive growth in these scenarios, in particular because the scenarios strongly resemble what has happened in the US and other rich economies in recent decades. +
++One recent paper examined total factor productivity growth in the US between 1950 and 2018 and found that while it grew rapidly in some sectors (agriculture, durable goods manufacturing, wholesaling), it declined in others (construction, education and health care, finance/insurance). +
++This has decidedly not meant that the US economy has relied more and more on agriculture and manufacturing. In fact, employment in those sectors has fallen considerably, precisely because you can get more output per worker than in the past and so many fewer workers are needed to meet market demand. Automation has also led prices to fall in those sectors, and their share of overall economic output has fallen in turn. +
++By contrast, the share of jobs in those stagnant industries, the ones that arenât getting more productive, has been increasing. And because the less productive industries are becoming a bigger and bigger share of the economy, overall productivity growth has been dragged down. +
++This is known as Baumolâs cost disease, after the late economist William Baumol, and itâs a dynamic that limits how much automation can supercharge growth. Even if you massively automate certain industries â and if youâve been to a farm or car factory recently, youâll have noticed that these facilities rely heavily on very sophisticated planters, combines, and industrial robots to automate many tasks â the same process will lead those industries to become a less important part of the economy, and the industries where progress is harder will become more important. +
++To apply this to the AI context, you can imagine AI leading to full or almost-full automation for a few tasks. Maybe it replaces front-end engineers for making websites and applications, or even software engineers en masse. Maybe it automates graphic design and 3D animation well enough that most businesses switch to using AI models rather than people. Maybe it replaces human journalists. (Iâd prefer not, but I have my worries.) +
++As long as there are other jobs (chefs, child care providers, construction workers) where AI isnât driving large increases in productivity â perhaps because we still canât manage to produce useful robots that can put that AI into the physical world â the result of this process will not be explosive growth. The result will be that employment and prices in automated sectors collapse, those sectors become less important as a share of the overall economy, and economic growth as a whole is still bottlenecked by sectors where productivity growth is hard to achieve. +
++Jones, the Northwestern economist who has modeled how AI affects growth trajectories, anticipates that these kinds of bottlenecks will prevent explosive growth due to AI, at least in the near term. Think about how much technical progress has happened in computing over the past 70 years or so. âMooreâs law is almost absurd,â he noted in an interview. âItâs 10^17 more flops [a measure of computing performance] per dollar than 70 years ago. Thatâs incredible.â +
++But our ability to manipulate atoms hasnât matched our ability to manipulate software bits, which is why, since the advent of the integrated circuit in 1958, economic growth in the US and other rich countries has not been explosive. There are other industries where productivity is not exploding, and those are holding us back. +
++âIf you took a picture of a restaurant now and 1950, itâs effectively the same,â Jones says as an example. âThey take your order, someoneâs going to take an order to the kitchen, someoneâs going to cook it using capital equipment and labor.â It might be a little cheaper now; the ovens and dishwashers are a little more efficient. But itâs not what weâve seen with computers, and thatâs meant overall growth has been modest. +
++Believers in a growth explosion argue that modeling AI like this undersells its potential. Past technological advances, ones that have brought us steady but not accelerating growth over the past century or so, âtook the form of technologies that automate small segments of production, offering modest benefits while requiring numerous expensive synchronized changes across the economy to be implemented,â economist and growth explosion theorist Tamay Besiroglu noted in a recent debate on the topic. âIn contrast, if AI is capable of everything a human can do, we could potentially automate large numbers of tasks in one go, with fewer costly updates to existing processes.â +
++Notice here that Besiroglu is assuming an AI capable of everything a human can do. This isnât strictly necessary for the growth explosion story. âIt simplifies the argument to talk about full automation, but I think we could get explosive growth without literally full automation,â Davidson says. We donât necessarily need to automate things like caregiving or teaching or surgery: âIf you can fully automate R&D and capital investment, that gets the feedback loop going that gets growth going very fast.â +
++Fully automating research and development (R&D), of course, is no small thing either â and part of why this scenario sees fast growth is the R&D sectors are working hard to get around bottlenecks created by sectors that arenât automated. +
++The more I dug into this debate, the more this seemed to be the crux of the disagreement. Believers in a growth explosion seem quite confident that it is possible, in a matter of decades, to develop AI and robots capable of doing any economically useful task a human can do, or any task important for the production of new ideas that drive productivity and economic growth. +
++Skeptics just donât buy this. âThis tech is amazing, itâs moving fast, itâs important,â David Autor, a professor of economics at MIT who has studied the effects of AI on jobs, told me. âBut I donât think it converges toward the end of labor.â +
++AI, as impressive as it is, is simply not on track to substitute for all labor, in this view. âAI does not reason,â Autor continues â which would, for instance, make it impossible to automate R&D. âIt does not think analytically, it does not understand object constancy. I donât think that problem solves itself.â +
++In some ways, this makes the question of whether AI will drive explosive growth a bit more tractable because there doesnât seem to be as much disagreement among economists and other analysts about what human-level AI will do if we get it. The actual state of the technology seems like the biggest source of uncertainty, rather than the effects of its most extreme form. Human-level AI does seem very likely to drive explosive economic growth â by totally substituting for labor, by automating the discovery of ideas, or both. +
++If you think human-level AI is inevitable, this is both exciting and terrifying. Many of these explosive growth models project that demand for human labor will fall to zero. Thatâs a scenario of massive unemployment and grotesque inequality between the minority of people who own capital and profit from the growth explosion and the majority who lack capital and languish. Taxes and other mechanisms could seize some of the gains and redistribute them to the newly unemployed majority, but a scenario with unemployment levels far above those of the Great Depression would be rather ugly, alms or not. +
++Even if you donât think human-level AI is possible or likely in the near term, the picture could still be interesting. There are many scenarios in which AI does not lead to an âexplosionâ in growth, or to superexponential growth, but does lead to growth being persistently higher for some time â and more widely spread. For instance, Autor is highly optimistic about the potential for AI to improve productivity in precisely those sectors (like health care and education) where itâs been stubbornly low, unclogging the bottlenecks that have been holding back the overall economy. +
++And because the unmet need in these areas is so high, he thinks this productivity could coexist with high levels of employment, unlike the situation in agriculture and manufacturing where high productivity has gone along with declines in employment. Health care is ânot going to be like agriculture, where we have so much that it doesnât employ anyone,â he says. âI donât see it getting less labor intensive, but much more efficient.â +
++Explosive growth is a pretty high bar, even if its theorists make a compelling case that itâs at least possible. But even a smaller boost could wind up changing all our lives. +
++20190625_RL33534_088c5467dd11365dd4ab5f72133db289fa10030f.pdf +
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She was adopted. -
++My wife just found out sheâs adopted. Sheâs devastated and kept asking âWhy didnt they want me?â I comforted her and after a while, still crying, she asked me to make love to her, which led to more tears. On reflection, banging her from behind and shouting âWHOâS YOUR DADDY?!â was a little insensitive. +
+ submitted by /u/intentsnegotiator
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A fourth-grade teacher was giving her pupils a lesson in logic. -
++âHere is the situation,â she said. âA man is standing up in a boat in the middle of a river, fishing. He loses his balance, falls in, and begins splashing and yelling for help. His wife hears the commotion, knows he canât swim, and runs down to the bank. Why do you think she ran to the bank?â A girl raised her hand and asked, +
++âTo draw out all his savings?â +
+ submitted by /u/TheQuietKid22
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Deer hunter special -
++Some guy is in a bar and sees some attractive looking woman sitting there. Maybe 50 but with a killer body. +
++He buys her a drink. She asks him if he wants a deer hunter special. +
++He asks what that is. She says that her husband is away deer hunting for days. The deer hunter special is something she does during deer hunting season. It is daughter and mother sex with a stranger. +
++He says great and follows her to her home in his car. They walk into her house. +
++She yells up the stairs. âHe ma, you still up?â +
++â +
+ submitted by /u/silver_chief2
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How high are you? -
++No officer, itâs hi how are you? +
+ submitted by /u/Bringsally
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Why should you be afraid of the tip of a penis? -
++It grew up in the hood. +
+ submitted by /u/TaterFury69
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