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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="covid-19-sentry">Covid-19 Sentry</h1>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
<ul>
<li><a href="#from-preprints">From Preprints</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-clinical-trials">From Clinical Trials</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-pubmed">From PubMed</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-patent-search">From Patent Search</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-preprints">From Preprints</h1>
<ul>
<li><strong>Quantitation of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies with a virus-free, authentic test</strong> -
<div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Neutralizing antibodies (NAbs), and their concentration in sera of convalescents and vaccinees are a solid correlate of protection from COVID-19. The antibody concentrations in clinical samples that neutralize SARS-CoV-2 are difficult and very cumbersome to assess with conventional virus neutralization tests (cVNTs), which require work with the infectious virus and biosafety level 3 containment precautions. Alternative virus neutralization tests currently in use are mostly surrogate tests based on direct or competitive ELISA formats or use viral vectors with the spike protein as the single structural component of SARS-CoV-2. To overcome these obstacles, we developed a virus-free, safe and very fast (4.5 h) in vitro diagnostic test based on engineered yet authentic SARS-CoV-2 virus-like-particles (VLPs). They share all features of the original SARS-CoV-2 but lack the viral RNA genome and thus are non-infectious. NAbs induced by infection or vaccination, but also potentially neutralizing monoclonal antibodies can be reliably quantified and assessed with ease and within hours with our test, because they interfere and block the ACE2-mediated uptake of VLPs by recipient cells. Results from the VLP neutralization test (VLPNT) show excellent correlation to a cVNT with fully infectious SARS-CoV-2 and allow to estimate the reduced neutralization capacity of COVID-19 vaccinee sera with variants of concern of SARS-CoV-2.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.29.21268487v1" target="_blank">Quantitation of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies with a virus-free, authentic test</a>
</div></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Who Can I Count On: Honor and Self-Reliance During the COVID-19 Pandemic</strong> -
<div>
During the COVID-19 pandemic, people differed in how much they took matters into their own hands rather than follow COVID-19-related public health guidelines. In this paper, we take a culture-as-situated cognition perspective to suggest that one reason for this variability may be that the pandemic triggered honor concerns. Honor is a cultural mindset focused on protecting oneself and one’s family by maintaining reputation. To demonstrate honor, people may take matters into their own hands when this is possible. During the pandemic, Americans, recruited on Prolific, (Studies 1,</div></li>
</ul>
<ol start="2" type="1">
<li>who valued honor acted independently of governmental measures because they preferred relying on themselves (N = 1,179). This was not the case for Iranians, recruited through social media, (Study 3), for whom higher honor values predicted increased adherence to public health guidelines. Our results imply that how demonstrating honor values translates to action depends on contextual features that affect how people construe self-reliance.
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://psyarxiv.com/h26pt/" target="_blank">Who Can I Count On: Honor and Self-Reliance During the COVID-19 Pandemic</a>
</div></li>
</ol>
<ul>
<li><strong>Neutralization of ancestral SARS-CoV-2 and variants Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Zeta and Omicron by mRNA vaccination and infection-derived immunity through homologous and heterologous variants</strong> -
<div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern/interest (VOC/VOI) raise questions about effectiveness of neutralizing antibodies derived from infection or vaccination. Here, we have assessed a total of 104 blood specimens, consisting of convalescent samples after infection with early-pandemic SARS-CoV-2 (pre-VOC) or with Alpha, Beta, Gamma or Delta, post- vaccination samples after double-dose mRNA-vaccination as well as samples after vaccine break-through infections with Delta or Omicron. Neutralization against seven authentic SARS-CoV-2 isolates (B.1, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Zeta, Omicron) was assessed by plaque-reduction neutralization assay. We found highest neutralization titers against the homologous (previously infecting) variant, with lower neutralization efficiency against heterologous variants. Loss of neutralization against heterologous variants showed considerably variability between convalescent groups suggesting that a variant-specific infection background influences immune escape characteristics. Convalescent samples from pre-VOC SARS-CoV-2, Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta-infected individuals all showed a significant loss of neutralization for Omicron but to a varying degree (23.0-fold in Beta-convalescent up to 56.1-fold in Alpha-convalescent samples), suggesting that infection-derived immunity, independent of the infecting variant is most likely only poorly protective against Omicron. Of note, former variant of concern Zeta showed also a pronounced escape form neutralization of up to 28.2-fold in Alpha convalescent samples. Two-dose vaccinated individuals showed robust neutralization against B.1 and only slightly lower neutralization titers for Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Zeta, with fold-change reduction for heterologous virus between 2.8 (for Alpha) to 6.9 (for Beta). In contrast to convalescent specimens, escape from neutralization for Zeta was largely restored in vaccinated individuals, while Omicron showed a strongly reduced neutralization of 85.7-fold compared to pre-VOC SARS-CoV-2. Robust neutralization titers were observed in double- vaccinated individuals with subsequent Delta break-through infections, that also neutralized Omicron with a loss of only 12.5-fold. Individuals with an Omicron breakthrough infection showed high neutralization titers for both Delta and Omicron, with only a 1.5-fold loss for Delta neutralization. This suggests that infection with antigenically different variants can boost immunity against variants that are antigenically similar to the vaccine strain. We conclude that for the assessment of escape from neutralization by new VOCs such as Omicron, the complexity of background immunity due to individual and regional differences needs to be taken into account. Geographic variation in the proportion of individual with infection- or vaccination-derived immunity or a combination of both could have substantial influence on the course of the pandemic. Combined infection/vaccination immunity after break-through infections could ultimately lead to broad immunity also against non-homologous variants.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.28.21268491v1" target="_blank">Neutralization of ancestral SARS-CoV-2 and variants Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Zeta and Omicron by mRNA vaccination and infection-derived immunity through homologous and heterologous variants</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>A cohort study of the effect of SARS-CoV-2 point of care rapid RT-PCR at the Emergency Department on targeted admission</strong> -
<div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Background To prevent nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2, infection control measures are implemented for patients with symptoms compatible with COVID-19 until reliable test results are available. This delay targeted admission to the most appropriate ward based on the medical condition. SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen detection (RAD) tests and point of care (POC) rapid RT-PCR were introduced at emergency departments (EDs) in late 2020, but the consequence on targeted admission is unknown. Objectives To assess the effect of RAD tests and POC rapid RT-PCR (VitaPCR, Credo Diagnostics, Singapore) on targeted admission. Methods Patients presenting at the ED of a referral hospital (N = 2,940) between 13-Nov-2020 and 12-Jan-2021 were included. The study period was delimited by introduction of RAD tests and VitaPCR. Participant data was collected retrospectively, and outcome variables were length-of-stay (LoS), intrahospital transfers and targeted admission to COVID-19 ward. Results RAD tests reduced ED LoS for participants with positive tests or that were not tested. Negative VitaPCR results reduced mean hospital LoS by 1.5 (95%CI: 0.3-2.7) days and admissions to COVID –19 wards from 34.5 (95%CI: 28.9-40.5) to 14.7 (95%CI: 11.1-19.1) per 100 admissions. Introduction of VitaPCR reduced transfers between hospital wards in the first 5 days from 50.0 (95%CI: 45.0-55.0) to 34.0 (95%CI: 30.3-37.9) per 100 admissions. Conclusion RAD tests enabled rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection which had pronounced effects on LoS at the ED. VitaPCR added the possibility of exclusion of the infection which increased targeted admissions, reduced intrahospital transfers and lead to shorter stay at the hospital.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html- link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.29.21268501v1" target="_blank">A cohort study of the effect of SARS-CoV-2 point of care rapid RT-PCR at the Emergency Department on targeted admission</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>The Effect of Weather Pattern on the Second Wave of Coronavirus: A cross study between cold and tropical climates of France, Italy, Colombia, and Brazil</strong> -
<div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
This study aims to explore and understand the common belief that COVID infection rate is highly dependent on either the outside temperature and/or the humidity. Thirty six regions/states from two humid-tropical countries, namely Brazil and Colombia and two countries with temperate climate, France and Italy, are studied over the period of October to December. Daily outside temperature, relative humidity and hospitalization/cases are analyzed using Spearman9s correlation. The eighteen cold regions of France and Italy has seen an average drop in temperature from 10C to 6C and 17C to 7C, respectively, and France recorded an addition of 2.3 million cases, while Italy recorded an addition of 1.8 million cases. Outside temperature did not fluctuate much in tropical countries, but Brazil and Colombia added 4.17 million and 1.1 million cases, respectively. Koppen Geiger classification showed the differences in weather pattern between the four countries, and the analysis showed that there is very weak correlation between either outside weather and/or relative humidity alone to the COVID-19 pandemic.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.28.21268496v1" target="_blank">The Effect of Weather Pattern on the Second Wave of Coronavirus: A cross study between cold and tropical climates of France, Italy, Colombia, and Brazil</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness among immunocompromised populations: a targeted literature review of real-world studies</strong> -
<div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Introduction: From July through October of 2021, several countries issued recommendations for increased COVID-19 vaccine protection for individuals with one or more immunocompromised (IC) conditions. It is critically important to understand the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of COVID-19 vaccines among IC populations as recommendations are updated over time in response to the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Areas covered: A targeted literature review was conducted to identify real-world studies that assessed COVID-19 VE in IC populations between December 2020 and September 2021. A total of 10 studies from four countries were identified and summarized in this review. Expert opinion/commentary: VE of the widely available COVID-19 vaccines, including BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen), and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford/AstraZeneca), ranged from 64%-90% against SARS-CoV-2 infection, 73%-84% against symptomatic illness, 70%-100% against severe illness, and 63%-100% against COVID-19-related hospitalization among the fully vaccinated IC populations included in the studies. COVID-19 VE for most outcomes in the IC populations included in these studies was lower than in the general populations. These findings provide preliminary evidence that the IC population requires greater protective measures to prevent COVID-19 infection and associated illness, hence should be prioritized while implementing recommendations of additional COVID-19 vaccine doses.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.29.21268511v1" target="_blank">COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness among immunocompromised populations: a targeted literature review of real-world studies</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Leveraging global multi-ancestry meta-analysis in the study of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis genetics</strong> -
<div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The research of rare and devastating orphan diseases such as Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) has been limited by the rarity of the disease itself. The prognosis is poor - the prevalence of IPF is only ~4-times the incidence of the condition, limiting the recruitment of patients to trials and studies of the underlying biology of the disease. However, global biobanking efforts can dramatically alter the future of IPF research. Here we describe the largest meta-analysis of IPF, with 8,492 patients and 1,355,819 population controls from 13 biobanks around the globe. Finally, we combine the meta-analysis with the largest available meta-analysis of IPF so far, reaching 11,160 patients and 1,364,410 population controls in analysis. We identify seven novel genome-wide significant loci, only one of which would have been identified if the analysis had been limited to European ancestry individuals. We observe notable pleiotropy across IPF susceptibility and severe COVID-19 infection, beyond what is known to date. We also note a significant unexplained sex-heterogeneity effect at the strongest IPF locus MUC5B.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.29.21268310v1" target="_blank">Leveraging global multi-ancestry meta-analysis in the study of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis genetics</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Immunomodulation by intravenous omega-3 fatty acid treatment in older subjects hospitalized for COVID-19: a single- blind randomized controlled trial</strong> -
<div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with respiratory distress and systemic hyperinflammation. The primary objective of this single-blind randomized controlled proof-of-concept clinical trial was to establish the effects of intravenous (i.v.) omega-3 (n-3) polyunstaurated fatty acid (PUFA) treatment compared to placebo on inflammatory markers in COVID-19, represented by leukocytes as well as inflammatory protein and lipid mediators. Here we also present an exploratory analysis of the mechanisms of action to elucidate the potential to resolve the COVID-19 hyperinflammation through interfering with lipid mediators. Inclusion criteria were COVID-19 diagnosis and clinical status requiring hospitalization. After randomized 1:1 to a once daily i.v. infusion (2 mL/kg) of either placebo (NaCl) or n-3 PUFA emulsion containing 10g of fish oil per 100 mL, results from 22 older subjects (mean age 81+/-6.1 years) were analyzed. The neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio was significantly decreased after n-3 PUFA administration. Changes in the PUFA metabolome assessed by LC-MS/MS-based lipid metabolite analysis established increased proresolving lipid mediator precursor levels and decreased formation of leukotoxin and isoleukotoxin diols by n-3 PUFA treatment. The mechanistic exploration revealed decreased immunothrombosis and preserved interferon-response. Finally, n-3 PUFA treatment may serve to limit cortisone-induced immunosuppression, including preserving leukocyte phagocytic capacity. In conclusion, i.v. n-3 PUFA administration was safe and feasible during hospitalization of multimorbid older subjects for COVID-19. The results identified a n-3 PUFA treatment mediated lipid signature of increased proresolving precursor levels and decreased leukotoxin diols in parallel to beneficial immune responses. EudraCT: 2020-002293-28; clinicaltrials.gov: NCT04647604.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html- link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268264v1" target="_blank">Immunomodulation by intravenous omega-3 fatty acid treatment in older subjects hospitalized for COVID-19: a single-blind randomized controlled trial</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Transition of antibody titers after the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine in Japanese healthcare workers</strong> -
<div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Since February 2021, health care workers in Japan have been preferentially vaccinated with a messenger RNA vaccine (BNT162b2/Pfizer) against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). While many studies have confirmed that this vaccine is highly effective in reducing hospitalizations and deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), antibody titers tend to decline at 3 months, leading to a risk of breakthrough infections. Thus, information is needed to support decision making regarding the third vaccination. In this study, we investigated transition of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) IgG and neutralizing antibody titers of 41 vaccinated Japanese healthcare workers. Samples were collected seven times starting 1 week before vaccination until 6 months post-vaccination. Anti- SARS-CoV-2 RBD IgG levels peaked at 7 days after the booster, then declined over time and decreased to &lt;10% at 6 months after the booster. Workers with low anti-SARS-CoV-2 RBD IgG levels also had low neutralizing antibody titers. These data support the active use of boosters for healthcare workers, especially for those with low anti-SARS-CoV-2 RBD IgG levels.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.28.21268435v1" target="_blank">Transition of antibody titers after the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine in Japanese healthcare workers</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Long-lasting cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following infection or vaccination and implications for booster strategies</strong> -
<div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Immunization against SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) occurs via natural infection or vaccination. However, it is currently unknown how long infection- or vaccination-induced immunological memory will last. We performed a longitudinal evaluation of immunological memory to SARS-CoV-2 following mRNA vaccination in naive and COVID-19 recovered individuals. We found that cellular immunity is still detectable 8 months after vaccination, while antibody levels decline significantly especially in naive subjects. We also found that a booster injection is more efficacious in reactivating immunological memory to spike protein in naive than in previously SARS-CoV-2 infected subjects. Finally, we observed a similar kinetics of decay of humoral and cellular immunity to SARS- CoV-2 up to one year following natural infection in a cohort of unvaccinated individuals. Short-term persistence of humoral immunity may account for reinfections and breakthrough infections, although long-lived memory B and CD4+ T cells may protect from severe disease. A booster dose restores optimal anti-spike immunity in naive subjects, while the need for vaccinated COVID-19 recovered subjects has yet to be defined.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html- link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.29.21268469v1" target="_blank">Long- lasting cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following infection or vaccination and implications for booster strategies</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Omicron outbreak at a private gathering in the Faroe Islands, infecting 21 of 33 triple-vaccinated healthcare workers</strong> -
<div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
There are concerns that the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant evades immune responses due to unusually high numbers of mutations on the spike protein. Here we report a super-spreading event of Omicron infections amongst triple-vaccinated healthcare workers, infecting 21 of 33 attending a private gathering in the Faroe Islands.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.22.21268021v2" target="_blank">Omicron outbreak at a private gathering in the Faroe Islands, infecting 21 of 33 triple-vaccinated healthcare workers</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Structural basis of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron immune evasion and receptor engagement</strong> -
<div>
The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern evades antibody mediated immunity with an unprecedented magnitude due to accumulation of numerous spike mutations. To understand the Omicron antigenic shift, we determined cryo-electron microscopy and X-ray crystal structures of the spike and RBD bound to the broadly neutralizing sarbecovirus monoclonal antibody (mAb) S309 (the parent mAb of sotrovimab) and to the human ACE2 receptor. We provide a structural framework for understanding the marked reduction of binding of all other therapeutic mAbs leading to dampened neutralizing activity. We reveal electrostatic remodeling of the interactions within the spike and those formed between the Omicron RBD and human ACE2, likely explaining enhanced affinity for the host receptor relative to the prototypic virus.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.28.474380v1" target="_blank">Structural basis of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron immune evasion and receptor engagement</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Subgenomic SARS-CoV-2 replicon and reporter replicon cell lines enable ultrahigh throughput antiviral screening and mechanistic studies with antivirals, viral mutations or host factors that affect COVID-19 replication</strong> -
<div>
Replicon-based technologies were used to develop reagents and assays for advanced drug discovery efforts against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and for examining all facets of the SARS-CoV-2 replication cycle at reduced biocontainment level. Specifically: a) 21 replicons were cloned in bacterial artificial chromosomes (BACs) and delivered as transfectable plasmid DNA or transcribed RNA in various cell types. Replicons carrying mutations that affect the activity or antiviral susceptibility of SARS-CoV-2 enzymes were used to establish utility for mechanistic studies while reducing the community risks associated with gain-of-function studies in fully infectious virus. b) A BHK-21 stable cell line harboring SARS-CoV-2 replicon was generated and characterized in robust high/ultra- high throughput assays of antiviral efficacy with orthogonal SARS-CoV-2 replication reporter genes (Nano luciferase and enhanced green fluorescent protein-eGFP); the estimated antiviral potencies in the fully infectious SARS-CoV-2 system and in the transient or stable replicon systems were similar. HEK293 and Calu1 stable cell lines expressing SARS-CoV-2 replicon have also been prepared. Finally, c) we generated trans-encapsidated replicons by co-expression with SARS-CoV-2 structural proteins, thus producing single-round infectious SARS-CoV-2 virus-like particles able to transduce susceptible cell types, thus expanding utility to enable study of virion assembly and entry into target cells. Hence, these SARS-CoV-2 replicon-based reagents include a novel approach to replicon-harboring cell line generation and are valuable tools that can be used at lower biosafety level (BSL2) for drug discovery efforts, characterization of SARS- CoV-2 and variant evolution in the COVID-19 pandemic, mechanisms of inhibition and resistance, and studies on the role of SARS-CoV-2 genes and host dependency factors.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.29.474471v1" target="_blank">Subgenomic SARS-CoV-2 replicon and reporter replicon cell lines enable ultrahigh throughput antiviral screening and mechanistic studies with antivirals, viral mutations or host factors that affect COVID-19 replication</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>SARS-CoV-2 diverges from other betacoronaviruses in only partially activating the IRE1α/XBP1 ER stress pathway in human lung-derived cells</strong> -
<div>
Despite the efficacy of vaccines, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has killed over 5 million individuals worldwide and continues to spread in countries where the vaccines are not yet widely available or its citizens are hesitant to become vaccinated. Therefore, it is critical to unravel the molecular mechanisms that allow SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses to infect and overtake the host machinery of human cells. Coronavirus replication triggers endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress and activation of the unfolded protein response (UPR), a key host cell pathway widely believed essential for viral replication. We examined the activation status and requirement of the master UPR sensor IRE1 kinase/RNase and its downstream transcription factor effector XBP1s, which is processed through an IRE1-mediated mRNA splicing event, in human lung-derived cells infected with betacoronaviruses. We found human respiratory coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43), Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and the murine coronavirus (MHV) all induce ER stress and strongly trigger the kinase and RNase activities of IRE1 as well as XBP1 splicing. In contrast, SARS-CoV-2 only partially activates IRE1 whereby it autophosphorylates, but its RNase fails to splice XBP1. Moreover, IRE1 was dispensable for optimal replication in human cells for all coronaviruses tested. Our findings demonstrate that IRE1 activation status differs upon infection with distinct betacoronaviruses and is not essential for efficient replication of any of them. Our data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 actively inhibits the RNase of autophosphorylated IRE1 through an unknown mechanism, perhaps as a strategy to eliminate detection by the host immune system.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.30.474519v1" target="_blank">SARS-CoV-2 diverges from other betacoronaviruses in only partially activating the IRE1α/XBP1 ER stress pathway in human lung-derived cells</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Molecular probes of spike ectodomain and its subdomains for SARS-CoV-2 variants, Alpha through Omicron</strong> -
<div>
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, widespread infections have allowed SARS-CoV-2 to evolve in human, leading to the emergence of multiple circulating variants. Some of these variants show increased resistance to vaccines, convalescent plasma, or monoclonal antibodies. In particular, mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 spike have drawn attention. To facilitate the isolation of neutralizing antibodies and the monitoring the vaccine effectiveness against these variants, we designed and produced biotin-labeled molecular probes of variant SARS-CoV-2 spikes and their subdomains, using a structure-based construct design that incorporated an N-terminal purification tag, a specific amino acid sequence for protease cleavage, the variant spike-based region of interest, and a C-terminal sequence targeted by biotin ligase. These probes could be produced by a single step using in-process biotinylation and purification. We characterized the physical properties and antigenicity of these probes, comprising the N-terminal domain (NTD), the receptor-binding domain (RBD), the RBD and subdomain 1 (RBD-SD1), and the prefusion-stabilized spike ectodomain (S2P) with sequences from SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern or of interest, including variants Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Epsilon, Iota, Kappa, Delta, Lambda, Mu, and Omicron. We functionally validated probes by using yeast expressing a panel of nine SARS- CoV-2 spike-binding antibodies and confirmed sorting capabilities of variant probes using yeast displaying libraries of plasma antibodies from COVID-19 convalescent donors. We deposited these constructs to Addgene to enable their dissemination. Overall, this study describes a matrix of SARS-CoV-2 variant molecular probes that allow for assessment of immune responses, identification of serum antibody specificity, and isolation and characterization of neutralizing antibodies.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.29.474491v1" target="_blank">Molecular probes of spike ectodomain and its subdomains for SARS-CoV-2 variants, Alpha through Omicron</a>
</div></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-clinical-trials">From Clinical Trials</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Phase III Study of Novaferon in Non-hospitalized Adult Patients With Mild COVID-19</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   Covid19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Biological: Novaferon;   Biological: Placebo<br/><b>Sponsors</b>:   Genova Inc.;   Tokyo Shinagawa Hospital<br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Human COVID-19 Immunoglobulin (COVID-HIG) Therapy for COVID-19 Patients</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Biological: Human COVID-19 immunoglobulin (pH4) for intravenous injection;   Drug: Placebo<br/><b>Sponsors</b>:   Sinopharm Wuhan Plasma-derived Biotherapies Co., Ltd.;   China National Biotec Group Company Limited;   Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Co., Ltd.<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy Study of IBI314 in Mild to Moderate Patients With COVID-19</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Biological: IBI314(low dose);   Biological: IBI314(high dose);   Biological: IBI314(medium dose);   Other: Placebo<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:  <br/>
Innovent Biologics (Suzhou) Co. Ltd.<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Study Evaluating Tocilizumab in Pediatric Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Drug: Tocilizumab<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Hoffmann- La Roche<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Safety, Tolerability, and Treatment Effect of Belnacasan in Patients With COVID-19</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Drug: Belnacasan;   Drug: Placebo<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:  <br/>
MedStar Health<br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Safety and Immunogenicity Study of Booster Vaccination in Different Doses of COVID-19 Vaccine (Vero Cell),Inactivated for Prevention of COVID-19</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Biological: High-dosage of COVID-19 vaccine (Vero cell), Inactivated;   Biological: Medium-dose COVID-19 Vaccine(Vero Cell),Inactivated<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:  <br/>
Sinovac Research and Development Co., Ltd.<br/><b>Active, not recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Safety and Immunogenicity Study of Booster Vaccination With COVID-19 Vaccine (Vero Cell),Inactivated From Different Manufactures for Prevention of COVID-19</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Biological: Experimental vaccine 1;   Biological: Experimental vaccine 2;   Biological: Experimental vaccine 3<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:  <br/>
Sinovac Research and Development Co., Ltd.<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Use of Low-frequency Magnetic Fields in the Hybrid Treatment of COVID-19 Patients</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>:   COVID-19;   COVID-19 Respiratory Infection;   COVID-19 Pneumonia<br/><b>Intervention</b>:  <br/>
Other: magnetostimulation<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Medical University of Lodz<br/><b>Active, not recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>CONFIDENT: Supporting Long-term Care Workers During COVID-19</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>:   COVID-19 Pandemic;   COVID-19 Vaccine Confidence<br/><b>Interventions</b>:  <br/>
Behavioral: Dialogue-Based Webinar;   Behavioral: Social Media Website;   Other: Enhanced Usual Practice<br/><b>Sponsors</b>:   Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center;   National Association of Health Care Assistants;   Institute for Healthcare Improvement;   East Carolina University<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Severity of COVID-19 and Vitamin D Supplementation</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19 Respiratory Infection<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Drug: vitamin D<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Federal State Budgetary Institution, V. A. Almazov Federal North-West Medical Research Centre, of the Ministry of Health<br/><b>Active, not recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Quality of Life and Lung Function on Post Covid-19 Patient</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Other: breathing exercise, Aerobic exercises<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Qassim University<br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Study to Evaluate the Ability of UB-612 COVID-19 Vaccine to Boost Immunity of Heterologous COVID-19 Vaccines.</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Biological: UB-612<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:  <br/>
United Biomedical Inc., Asia<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Multicenter Double Blind, Parallel-group Phase 2/3 Trial, to Study Raloxifene in Adult COVID-19 Patients.</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   SARS CoV 2 Infection<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Drug: Raloxifene;   Other: Placebo<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Dompé Farmaceutici S.p.A<br/><b>Completed</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Nebulized Fentanyl for Respiratory Symptoms in Patients With COVID-19</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19 Pneumonia<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Drug: Nebulized Fentanyl<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:  <br/>
Hamad Medical Corporation<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Safety &amp; Immunogenicity of Booster SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine (Vero Cell)</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Biological: SARS-COV-2 Vaccine (Vero Cell-Sinopharm) Inactivated<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   PT. Kimia Farma (Persero) Tbk<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-pubmed">From PubMed</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Cell-surface glycans act as attachment factors for porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus</strong> - Porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus (PHEV) is a neurotropic coronavirus and highly pathogenic in veterinary clinic. Spike (S) protein of PHEV interplays with host components to cross the plasma membrane of target cells, but characterization of its functional receptors is limited. Here, we discovered that cell-surface glycans, i.e., sialic acid (SA) and heparan sulfate (HS), act as critical interacting factors of PHEV, involving in viral attachment. As shown in glycans depletion…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Structural basis and mode of action for two broadly neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 emerging variants of concern</strong> - Emerging variants of concern for the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can transmit more efficiently and partially evade protective immune responses, thus necessitating continued refinement of antibody therapies and immunogen design. Here, we elucidate the structural basis and mode of action for two potent SARS-CoV-2 spike (S)-neutralizing monoclonal antibodies, CV3-1 and CV3-25, which remain effective against emerging variants of concern in vitro and in vivo. CV3-1…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>In silico bioprospecting of antiviral compounds from marine fungi and mushroom for rapid development of nutraceuticals against SARS-CoV-2</strong> - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) affects human respiratory function that causes COVID-19 disease. COVID-19 has spread rapidly all over the world and became a pandemic within no time. Therefore, it is the need of hour to screen potential lead candidates from natural resources like edible mushrooms and marine fungi. These natural resources are very less explored till now and known to be the source for many medicinal compounds with several health benefits. These…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The effect of colchicine on mortality outcome and duration of hospital stay in patients with COVID-19: A meta- analysis of randomized trials</strong> - BACKGROUND: Overactivation of the NLR family pyrin domain containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome can lead to severe illness in patients with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). The NLRP3 inhibitor, colchicine, therefore, appears to be promising for the treatment of COVID-19.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Review of studies on SARS-CoV-2 infection inhibitors</strong> - CONCLUSIONS: The ongoing research is focused on the development of new antiviral agents, as well as the use of the existing drugs on the market. The results of clinical trials are promising and give hope for the development of effective therapies against SARS-CoV-2 and emerging variants of this virus.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>S-adenosylmethionine-dependent methyltransferase inhibitor DZNep blocks transcription and translation of SARS-CoV-2 genome with a low tendency to select for drug-resistant viral variants</strong> - We report the in vitro antiviral activity of DZNep (3-Deazaneplanocin A; an inhibitor of S-adenosylmethionine-dependent methyltransferase) against SARS-CoV-2, besides demonstrating its protective efficacy against lethal infection of infectious bronchitis virus (IBV, a member of the Coronaviridae family). DZNep treatment resulted in reduced synthesis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and proteins without affecting other steps of viral life cycle. We demonstrated that deposition of N6-methyl adenosine (m6A) in…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Synthesis and Antiviral Activities of Neoechinulin B and Its Derivatives</strong> - We have previously reported that neoechinulin B (1a), a prenylated indole diketopiperazine alkaloid, shows antiviral activities against hepatitis C virus (HCV) via the inactivation of the liver X receptors (LXRs) and the resultant disruption of double-membrane vesicles. In this study, a two-step synthesis of the diketopiperazine scaffold of 1a was achieved by the base-induced coupling of 1,4-diacetyl-3-{[(tert-butyldimethylsilyl)oxy]methyl}piperazine-2,5-dione with aldehydes, followed by the…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Membrane-Based In-Gel Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification (mgLAMP) System for SARS-CoV-2 Quantification in Environmental Waters</strong> - Since the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to become endemic, quantification of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in ambient waters is critical for environmental surveillance and for early detection of outbreaks. Herein, we report the development of a membrane-based in-gel loop-mediated isothermal amplification (mgLAMP) system that is designed for the rapid point-of-use quantification of SARS-CoV-2 particles in environmental waters. The mgLAMP system integrates the viral…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The polymorphism L412F in TLR3 inhibits autophagy and is a marker of severe COVID-19 in males</strong> - The polymorphism L412F in TLR3 has been associated with several infectious diseases. However, the mechanism underlying this association is still unexplored. Here, we show that the L412F polymorphism in TLR3 is a marker of severity in COVID-19. This association increases in the sub-cohort of males. Impaired macroautophagy/autophagy and reduced TNF/TNFα production was demonstrated in HEK293 cells transfected with TLR3^(L412F)-encoding plasmid and stimulated with specific agonist poly(I:C). A…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Human mesenchymal stem cells treatment for severe COVID-19: 1-year follow-up results of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial</strong> - BACKGROUND: The long-term consequences of human umbilical cord-derived mesenchymal stem cell (UC-MSC) treatment for COVID-19 patients are yet to be reported. This study assessed the 1-year outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19, who were recruited in our previous UC-MSC clinical trial.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Colchicine use in patients with COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis</strong> - CONCLUSION: Colchicine may reduce the risk of mortality in individuals with COVID-19. Further prospective investigation may further determine the efficacy of colchicine as treatment in COVID-19 patients in various care settings of the disease, including post-hospitalization and long-term care.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A genome-wide CRISPR screen identifies interactors of the autophagy pathway as conserved coronavirus targets</strong> - Over the past 20 years, 3 highly pathogenic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) have emerged-Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and, most recently, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-demonstrating that coronaviruses (CoVs) pose a serious threat to human health and highlighting the importance of developing effective therapies against them. Similar to other viruses, CoVs are dependent on host factors…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Computationally prioritized drugs inhibit SARS-CoV-2 infection and syncytia formation</strong> - The pharmacological arsenal against the COVID-19 pandemic is largely based on generic anti-inflammatory strategies or poorly scalable solutions. Moreover, as the ongoing vaccination campaign is rolling slower than wished, affordable and effective therapeutics are needed. To this end, there is increasing attention toward computational methods for drug repositioning and de novo drug design. Here, multiple data-driven computational approaches are systematically integrated to perform a virtual…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Investigation of small molecule inhibitors of the SARS-CoV-2 papain-like protease by all-atom microsecond modelling, PELE Monte Carlo simulations, and in vitro activity inhibition</strong> - The SARS-CoV-2 papain-like (PL^(pro)) protease is essential for viral replication. We investigated potential antiviral effects of hypericin relative to the well-known noncovalent PL^(pro) inhibitor GRL-0617. Molecular dynamics and PELE Monte Carlo simulations highlight favourable binding of hypericin and GRL-0617 to the naphthalene binding pocket of PL^(pro). Although not potent as GRL-0617 (45.8 vs 1.6µM for protease activity, respectively), in vitro fluorogenic enzymatic assays with hypericin…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Inhibiting TGF-[Formula: see text] 1-Mediated Cellular Processes as an Effective Strategy for the Treatment of Pulmonary Fibrosis with Chinese Herbal Medicines</strong> - Pulmonary fibrosis (PF) is a chronic and irreversible interstitial lung disease that even threatens the lives of some patients infected with COVID-19. PF is a multicellular pathological process, including the initial injuries of epithelial cells, recruitment of inflammatory cells, epithelial-mesenchymal transition, activation and differentiation of fibroblasts, etc. TGF-[Formula: see text]1 acts as a key effect factor that participates in these cellular processes of PF. Recently, much attention…</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-patent-search">From Patent Search</h1>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Hung Thanh Phan COVID-19 NEW SOLUTION</strong> - - <a href="https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=AU344983394">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>METHODS OF TREATING SARS-COV-2 INFECTION</strong> - - <a href="https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=AU344309338">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>REAL-TIME REST BREAK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR WORKPLACE</strong> - The present invention relates to a real-time rest break management system for workplace that comprises of a work desk, wherein first portion is incorporated with a biometric unit 4 for authenticating first user, and a second portion with a telescopic panel 2 associated with a weight sensor 6 and timer unit 7 calculating weight of head/hand manifesting user presence and their resting time period is mounted with an inflated cushion 5, an interactive primary display unit 1 attached over desk enables user to set first/second threshold time for sleeping/taking break, further linked with a tracking interface keeping track of activities and a vibrating unit crafted inside the cushion 5 which is linked to a secondary display unit 8 of second user, giving them access to actuate vibrating unit generating impulses to wake first user when threshold time period is exceeded by the first user. - <a href="https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=IN342791215">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>P2P 네트워크를 이용한 내장된 화상회의 시스템</strong> - 본 발명은 P2P 네트워크를 이용한 내장된 화상회의 시스템에 관한 것으로, 상태표시부(1), 영상송출부(2), 제어부(3), 광고부(4), 입력부(5)를 포함한다. - <a href="https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=KR342781397">link</a></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>小分子化合物肌醇六磷酸酯钠水合物在制备抗SARS-CoV-2药物中的应用</strong> - 本发明公开了小分子化合物肌醇六磷酸酯钠水合物在制备抗严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS‑CoV‑2)药物中的应用，所述抗SARS‑CoV‑2药物是以肌醇六磷酸酯钠水合物为唯一的活性成份，或包含肌醇六磷酸酯钠水合物的药物组合物，所述抗SARS‑CoV‑2药物是指预防或治疗SARS‑CoV‑2感染的药物。本发明利用SARS‑CoV‑2的易感细胞系，包括非洲绿猴肾细胞Vero</p></li>
</ul>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">E6以及人肺腺癌细胞Calu‑3，检测肌醇六磷酸酯钠水合物的抗SARS‑CoV‑2活性。实验结果显示，肌醇六磷酸酯钠水合物能有效抑制SARS‑CoV‑2对上述易感细胞的感染，且细胞毒性较小，有希望作为有效抗SARS‑CoV‑2感染的药物，具有应用前景。 - <a href="https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=CN344462859">link</a></p>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A DOORBELL SYSTEM FOR MONITORING AND RECORDING A PHYSIOLOGICAL DATA OF A PERSON</strong> - AbstractTitle: A doorbell system for monitoring and recording a physiological data of a person The present invention provides a doorbell system 500 for monitoring and recording a physiological data of a person. The doorbell system 500 having a transmitter module 100 and a receiving module 200. The transmitter module 100 is having a TOF sensor module 110, an ultrasound detector 120, and an infrared detector 130. Further, a speech recognition system 150, a facial recognition system 160, and a temperature detector 190 are provided for recognizing speech, face, and temperature of the person by comparing pre-stored data. A controlling module 180 is set with a predefined commands for communicating with the transmitter module 100 and receiving module 200. The collected facial and speech data is compared and matched with the pre-stored data then the temperature detector 190 triggers and the door opens when the captured body temperature of the person is matched within the predefined range of temperature.Figure 1 - <a href="https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=IN340503637">link</a></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Schnelltestsystem</strong> -
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Schnelltestsystem, aufweisend: eine Testkassette (11), die ein Testfeld (111) und einen einem bestimmten Benutzer entsprechenden Identifikationsstrichcode (113) aufweist, wobei das Testfeld (111) eine Probe (115) empfängt, um eine Testreaktion (R) zu bewirken, wodurch sich ein der Testreaktion (R) entsprechendes Muster (G) ergibt; und ein tragbares elektronisches Gerät (13), das eine Bildaufnahmeeinheit (131) aufweist, wobei die Bildaufnahmeeinheit (131) das Muster</p></li>
</ul>
<ol start="7" type="A">
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">und den Identifikationsstrichcode (113) liest und anschließend an einen Server (15) sendet.</li>
</ol>
<img alt="embedded
image" id="EMI-D00000"/>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"></p>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><a href="https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=DE345577866">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A study of contemporary trends in investing patterns, household savings, and economic investment.</strong> - Because household savings and household investments are intertwined and interdependent, they are discussed briefly in this paper. Household savings account for more than half of a country’s capital formation, which fluctuates due to a variety of economic factors such as inflation and interest rates. Households should gradually shift their savings and investments from physical assets to financial assets to avoid a sudden change in wealth. They should also save and invest using a variety of platforms. Trends in investing and saving will be easier to track and measure this way. This year’s domestic saving rate in India is 2.3 percent lower than last year’s and 1.2 percent lower than the year before. Since 2011, general domestic savings have been steadily declining, with the trend continuing into the following year. According to official data, the GDP in 2020 shrank by 23.9%, the least in previous years and the least since the Covid-19 pandemic in previous years. As a result, the information presented in this paper is drawn from and evaluated from other sources - <a href="https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=IN340502149">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>靶向刺激体液免疫和细胞免疫的新冠病毒mRNA疫苗</strong> - 本发明公开了一种靶向刺激体液免疫和细胞免疫的新冠病毒mRNA疫苗。本申请的第一方面提供一种分离的DNA分子组合，该DNA分子组合包括第一DNA分子和第二DNA分子和第三DNA分子中的至少一种。通过第一DNA分子以及第二DNA分子和/或第三DNA分子的组合，利用第一DNA分子最终合成的mRNA诱导高滴度的交叉中和抗体，利用第二DNA分子和/或第三DNA分子最终合成的mRNA诱导新冠病毒特异性的细胞毒性T淋巴细胞，从而高效地同时激活相对独立的体液免疫应答和细胞免疫应答，应对新冠病毒在流行传播过程中产生的突变毒株所引发的突破性感染。 - <a href="https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=CN343418093">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>跨膜丝氨酸蛋白酶2抑制剂在制备治疗和/或预防冠状病毒感染药物中的用途</strong> - 本发明公开了跨膜丝氨酸蛋白酶2抑制剂在制备治疗和/或预防冠状病毒感染药物中的用途。本发明通过亲和垂钓及活性导向分离获得3种化合物，证实该类化合物可以直接地与跨膜丝氨酸蛋白酶2结合，KD&lt;13μM，且能够显著抑制跨膜丝氨酸蛋白酶2的催化活性。在细胞水平上可以有效的抑制新型冠状病毒SARS‑CoV‑2假病毒入侵，表明该类化合物对于制备治疗和/或预防病毒感染药物具有非常积极的作用。化合物1 化合物2 化合物3。 - <a href="https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=CN343418164">link</a></p></li>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
<ul>
<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Year in Labor Strife</strong> - COVID-19 appears to have lit a match beneath at least a decade’s worth of late-stage-capitalist tinder. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/2021-in-review/the-year-in-labor-strife">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Solo Performances of Hasaan Ibn Ali Expand the History of Jazz</strong> - The pianist’s “Retrospect In Retirement Of Delay” is a historic outpouring of musical imagination. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-front-row/the-solo-performances-of-hasaan-ibn-ali-expand-the-history-of-%20jazz">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ringing in the New Year (on Zoom)</strong> - Should auld acquaintance be—wait, I think you’re muted. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/cartoons/blitts-kvetchbook/ringing-in-the-new-year-on-zoom">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>How Do You Get Dental Care When You Can’t Afford It?</strong> - At an annual dental fair in Philadelphia, Americans wait in line and hope to get through the door. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/us-journal/how-do-you-get-dental-care-when-you-cant-afford-it">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Joe Biden’s Year of Hoping Dangerously</strong> - It was a brutal start for the new President. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/2021-in-review/joe-bidens-year-of-hoping-dangerously">link</a></p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Rare turtles keep washing up on Cape Cod. “Turtle movers” fly them to Texas.</strong> -
<figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt="One worker holds a turtle on a table with its belly facing the camera while the second person
points a tablet at it to take the picture." src="https://cdn.vox-
cdn.com/thumbor/IxXqzZ2k26gv4rmYZZw9Ut930P4=/267x0:2400x1600/1310x983/cdn.vox-
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70335982/FS_laurenowenslambert_deadlybucket_029_Deadly_Bucket_LL_Pick___1_.0.jpg"/></p>
<figcaption>
Hannah Crawford, left, and Jessica Cramp, interns with the New England Aquarium, photograph a sea turtle in their care as a way of recording the condition and recovery of the animals. | Photographs by Lauren Owen Lambert
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Inside the 1,800-mile rescue operation helping the world’s most endangered turtle. 
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="IHs2yQ">
Sea turtles appear to fly as they swim beneath ocean waves. With long, gray-green flippers that move like slow wingbeats, they glide through the water as birds do through the sky. Actually flying through the air, though, at 10,000 feet above the ground, the reptiles seem anything but graceful.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7ty18K">
Inside the airplane, 120 sea turtles, 118 of which are juvenile Kemp’s ridleys (Lepidochelys kempii), shift uncomfortably among beach towels inside stacked Chiquita banana boxes, their crusty eyes and curved pearlescent beaks peeking through slot handles. The windowless metal cabin vibrates with the sound of propellers as the pilots work to keep the plane aloft and the internal air temperature at a turtle-friendly 22 degrees Celsius (72 degrees Fahrenheit). It’s December 2020, and outside, the cold air above New England slowly gives way to balmier southern temperatures. The pilots are taking the turtles on a 2,900-kilometer (1,800-mile) trip from Massachusetts to Texas’s Gulf Coast.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5zqdVd">
Eight hours later, they’re nearly there. “We’re coming into Corpus Christi,” says Mike Looby, a pilot with a sea turtle rescue organization called Turtles Fly Too, as airport runways come into view among the sprawling buildings below. Looby and co-pilot Bill Gisler, both from Ohio, will visit four different locations in Texas to offload the animals. This is the largest number of turtles the organization has transported to date.
</p>
<div class="p-fullbleed-block">
<figure class="e-image">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
cdn.com/thumbor/vN5RGk0ocpzNjmYjfVHx9MsKtWY=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23099575/FS_laurenowenslambert_deadlybucket_056_Deadly_Bucket_LL_Pick_.jpg"/></p></figure></div></li>
</ul>
<figcaption>
Charles Yanke, a volunteer pilot with Turtles Fly Too, helps load boxes of recovering sea turtles onto his plane in Marshfield, Massachusetts, for transport to rehabilitation centers outside the state.
</figcaption>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="tetXdi">
Once the plane is on the tarmac, staff and volunteers from several aquariums and marine rescue facilities crowd around. The pilots gently slide each box of turtles toward the cargo door, and the group lines up to carry them to vans parked nearby.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5VLzAB">
“What happened to these guys?” someone asks.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ItsipB">
“They were found stranded on Cape Cod, in Massachusetts,” says Donna Shaver, chief of the division of Sea Turtle Science and Recovery at Padre Island National Seashore, as she grabs a box.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="sDwpbI">
In the summer months, the waters in the Gulf of Maine where Cape Cod is located are warm, calm, and full of food, serving as a natural nursery for 2- to 4-year-old Kemp’s ridleys, the smallest and most endangered sea turtle in the world. Migrating loggerheads (Caretta caretta), green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas), and the occasional leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) also visit Cape Cod Bay. But as water temperatures plummet in November, December, and January, the cold-blooded turtles must migrate out or perish. Many lose their way and wash up, cold-stunned, on the inside edge of the hook-shaped Cape, which curls into the ocean like a flexing arm, forming what some locals call “the deadly bucket.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9tyX2j">
The phenomenon is the largest recurring sea turtle stranding event in the world. While it’s natural — local records of sea turtle bones date back centuries — the scale is new and may, paradoxically, be a product of successful efforts to recover Kemp’s ridley populations, in addition to the effects of climate change.
</p>
<div class="p-fullbleed- block">
<figure class="e-image">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7qHIwrxmgHrtixP0fj-
iksXY9RU=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23099556/FS_laurenowenslambert_deadlybucket_091_Deadly_Bucket_OTHERS_.jpg"/></p>
<cite>Photo made possible by LightHawk</cite>
<figcaption>
The hook at the outermost tip of Cape Cod spirals back into the bay toward the cape’s southern coastline, creating a challenging obstacle for young sea turtles seeking the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico when fall temperatures plummet.
</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RW2nqv">
“This area is increasing in water temperature faster than 99 percent of water bodies in the world,” says Kate Sampson, sea turtle stranding and disentanglement coordinator at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), who helps coordinate turtle transport. “Because of that, it seems like it’s drawing more sea turtles.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ISxpqS">
Fortunately for the turtles, hundreds of volunteers and several staff members organized by the nonprofit Mass Audubon Wellfleet Bay Wildlife Sanctuary stand at the ready to patrol every inch of the 105-kilometer (65-mile) stretch of beach lining the inner Cape, twice a day, from November through December, no matter the weather. When they find a turtle, the animal begins a logistically complex journey from rescue to rehabilitation and, eventually, to release. Saving each flight’s worth of little lives involves approximately five vans, 1,000 miles, four organizations, and 50 people. Without this monumental collaboration across North America’s Eastern Seaboard, other efforts to save the Kemp’s ridley sea turtle from extinction might be futile.
</p>
<h3 id="CMrFqc">
Why turtle strandings are on the rise
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lGDd3E">
Three weeks before Looby and Gisler’s departure with their precious herpetological cargo, Nancy Braun and her border collie Halo walked a stretch of Great Hollow Beach, near Cape Cod’s outermost tip. The unrelenting wind blew hard and Braun’s cheeks were rosy with cold, her hair frantically trying to escape from beneath a fuzzy winter hat. Every so often, she raised binoculars to her eyes to scan the sand and any promising-looking lump of seaweed. A resident of nearby Truro and a Mass Audubon volunteer, Braun was on the lookout for turtles.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4WCjp3">
Walking quickly, she passed small cottages in the dunes with window shutters closed tightly against the elements. Brightly colored beach chairs lined the shore like memorials to summers past. Along the way, Braun saw a group of people gathered around something in the distance, and she broke into a run in their direction, Halo bounding by her side. When she arrived, there they were: four sea turtles, clearly in need of care. As the group waited for the arrival of a Mass Audubon vehicle to take the turtles for initial processing, Braun and the others covered them with seaweed to protect against the wind chill.
</p>
<div class="p-fullbleed-block">
<figure class="e-image">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/G9rpX_MKogpn_-RZnf_KrGCvDC8=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23099587/FS_laurenowenslambert_deadlybucket_019_Deadly_Bucket_LL_Pick_.jpg"/></p>
<figcaption>
Truro resident Nancy Braun, her dog, and a few others stand watch over four stranded sea turtles on Great Hallow Beach on Cape Cod in November.
</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1LluKp">
“This is so cool,” said Richard Lammert, a visitor from New York. “We were just walking the beach and came across these turtles. I had no idea that sea turtles even came up this far. I’ve never seen one up close, let alone helped to rescue it.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vNWtX0">
While the mood was light, there was also a sense of urgency among the group. “I called Mass Audubon to let them know what we found,” said Michael Weinstein, another Truro resident. That’s exactly the type of response turtle rescuers hope for and why rescuers prioritize educating the community in addition to recruiting and training volunteers, according to Carol “Krill” Carson, president and founder of the New England Coastal Wildlife Alliance and a volunteer with Mass Audubon. Without a clear understanding of why the turtles are stranded in the first place, some well-intentioned people might think they should throw the animals back into the ocean. “Anyone can walk the beach and find a sea turtle,” Carson says. “It’s what that person does when they find a turtle that is critical.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="DVABH4">
Former director of Mass Audubon Bob Prescott started the sea turtle rescue program back in 1979. At the time, Prescott says he would find only a handful of turtles each year. The number has since skyrocketed. In 2014, volunteers found a record-breaking 1,242 turtles stranded on Cape Cod beaches. In 2020, there were 1,045, the second-highest number on record.
</p>
<div class="p-fullbleed-block">
<figure class="e-image">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
cdn.com/thumbor/RqtjLNLYoSji8Pp8kHwoPaDibJ8=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23101018/FS_laurenowenslambert_deadlybucket_007_Deadly_Bucket_LL_Pick_.jpg"/></p>
<figcaption>
Carol “Krill” Carson, president and founder of the New England Coastal Wildlife Alliance and a volunteer with Mass Audubon, drags a sled as she searches for stranded sea turtles along a Cape Cod beach near her home.
</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="sYtOoM">
The most common species found is Kemp’s ridley, which nests in only two places in the world: a stretch of beach in Mexico and one in Texas. Between the late 1940s and the mid-’80s, Kemp’s ridley populations plummeted from more than 40,000 nesting females to fewer than 300, due to entanglement in fishing gear and the harvesting of adults and eggs for human consumption. Today, Kemp’s ridleys still face a wide variety of threats, including habitat loss, coastal development, ship strikes, plastic waste, and climate change. With so few ridleys left, “every life counts in the survival of this species,” says Prescott, which makes the turtle rescue effort that much more important. “It’s all hands on deck.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6y95BH">
Connie Merigo, executive director of the National Marine Life Center, in Bourne, Massachusetts, agrees. “You hear a lot in biology, ‘Why are you interfering? Shouldn’t you just let nature run its course?’ In this case, a lot of these threats are not under control. So, if we let thousands of these turtles die every year in a cold-stunning event, the population is that much smaller.”
</p>
<aside id="C95NP4">
<div>
</div>
</aside>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kPKRtG">
Interestingly, though, the success of ongoing conservation efforts is likely one of the factors driving the increased need for rescues. That’s because there are simply more turtles around to strand. Conservation efforts on nesting beaches in Mexico, strict regulations on pollution, and new technological advancements in fishing equipment have all helped, as have new nest sites developed in Texas since the 1970s. Today, there are an estimated 5,500 Kemp’s ridley females nesting in Mexico and 55 in Texas.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BxRqrH">
Although this is a good sign, the current population is still critically low. According to NOAA, the number of nests grew steadily until 2009 but has fluctuated since then, underscoring the importance of ongoing monitoring and conservation. “Endangered species recovery is the long game,” says Shaver, who leads the Kemp’s ridley nesting program in Texas. “It’s so heartwarming to work with people who have the same mission at heart to try and give back to preserve and sustain this population.”
</p>
<div class="p-fullbleed-block">
<figure class="e-image">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_kYbkSR1--rpj153XXXhXVaTcEg=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23101039/FS_laurenowenslambert_deadlybucket_027_Deadly_Bucket_LL_Pick_.jpg"/></p>
<figcaption>
Boxes of cold-stunned sea turtles sit in a cool room at Mass Audubon in Wellfleet, Massachusetts. Rehabilitators slowly bring the turtles’ body temperatures back up to normal to avoid shocking the animals.
</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="KKTNKX">
The other likely factor contributing to turtle strandings is the warming of the Gulf of Maine. Climate change has caused the water here to warm earlier each year and to stay warm for longer, keeping young Kemp’s ridleys in the fertile shallows of Cape Cod Bay later each fall. But the temperatures of the outer Cape and the North Atlantic still plunge as summer comes to a close. When fall arrives and the turtles attempt to navigate northward around the cape’s hook, they hit a disorienting wall of cold and turn around in search of the warmer water of their southerly ocean habitats.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qY0Wo9">
This leads them back to the shallow flats inside the bay, where they encounter land instead of the open ocean. When the waters inside the cape reach a consistent 50 degrees Fahrenheit, any turtles still there will become hypothermic and eventually die unless they get help. Given the compounding factors, there’s no obvious end in sight to the trend.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nUzv02">
“We are going to continue to see an increase of cold- stuns on Cape Cod,” says NOAA’s Kate Sampson.
</p>
<div class="p-fullbleed-block">
<figure class="e-image">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XFcaOXj3CuzwBF-ux8j1wI2RwgE=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23101049/FS_laurenowenslambert_deadlybucket_034_Deadly_Bucket_LL_Pick_.jpg"/></p>
<figcaption>
New England Aquarium interns Kristen Luise, right, and Lauren Jaeger listen to the heartbeat of a hypothermic Kemp’s ridley sea turtle at the aquarium’s rehabilitation center in Quincy, Massachusetts.
</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WyF754">
That increase has only heightened the need for collaboration. In 2010, the New England Aquarium built a sea turtle rehabilitation facility in Quincy, Massachusetts, to meet demand. And with the high stranding numbers in 2020, breaking the record for live admitted turtles at 754, and limited staff due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the National Marine Life Center in Bourne, Massachusetts, also opened its doors to help with triage of incoming turtles, on top of the rehab services it already provided.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wPCN8a">
In addition to being hypothermic, Kemp’s ridleys usually arrive at these facilities with pneumonia or develop the condition within the first week or two of their arrival. Turtles also sometimes show up with traumatic injuries like broken bones and cracked shells from ocean waves tossing their bodies repeatedly into rocks, jetties, and seawalls when the animals are too cold to swim out of the surf.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9TLH8t">
Initially, when the turtles arrive, the goal is simply to assess their injuries through physical examinations and X-rays and to stabilize them. Rehabilitation staff members give the turtles fluids to rehydrate them and antibiotics to treat infections. They also work to slowly bring the animals’ internal body temperatures back up.
</p>
<div class="p-fullbleed-block">
<figure class="e-image">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yOuhArxXRuKRoU3feBVbbz9sn_4=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23101051/FS_laurenowenslambert_deadlybucket_035_Deadly_Bucket_LL_Pick_.jpg"/></p>
<figcaption>
Gabbie Nicoletta, a coordinator at the National Marine Life Center, watches a previously stranded sea turtle as it continues its recovery in a tank at the rehabilitation center in Bourne, Massachusetts, in December.
</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mguoFe">
Still, the two Massachusetts facilities can only care for so many turtles. At some point, the animals, including those that Braun and the others found on Great Hollow Beach, must be transported to other aquariums and facilities to complete their rehabilitation and ready them for release back into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. In total, 29 additional rehab facilities are prepared to take in sea turtles for long-term rehabilitation. And flying, it turns out, is the fastest, least stressful, and safest way to transport the animals. That’s where Turtles Fly Too and its team of dedicated volunteer pilots come in.
</p>
<h3 id="y2fBkN">
The first — and only — US operation permitted to airlift sea turtles
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="dRDtuW">
On a frigid, clear December day, the early morning sun peeks over the horizon as four vans pull onto the tarmac at Hanscom Field in Bedford, Massachusetts. Yawning, their breath turning into clouds before them, Kate Sampson of NOAA, Connie Merigo of the Marine Life Center, and a handful of other turtle rescuers from the New England Aquarium, pour out of the vehicles to meet with pilots Looby and Gisler. They strategize about the loading process to get dozens of turtles into the air as quickly and safely as possible. And that’s just one phase of the process.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="cxf45t">
Among the myriad details that must be worked out are how many turtles the rehabilitation facilities need to move, what planes are available and their capacity, where the pilots are coming from, where they’re going, and who will be on hand for pickup — all right up to the moment when the turtles arrive at their destination.
</p>
<div class="p-fullbleed-block">
<figure class="e-image">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1Ku2Ll2ngjMUGs4yCYqWJAfhMe8=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23103858/FS_laurenowenslambert_deadlybucket_046_Deadly_Bucket_LL_Pick_.jpg"/></p>
<figcaption>
Adam Kennedy, a biologist at the New England Aquarium, closes the lid on a container holding one of many previously stranded sea turtles bound for rehabilitation facilities outside New England.
</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7Ibms8">
The service that Turtles Fly Too provides is unique. Besides the US Fish and Wildlife Service, which has the authority to move any endangered animal, “we have the first and only permits in the nation to fly sea turtles,” says Leslie Weinstein, the organization’s president. Turtles Fly Too got its start in 2014, the record- breaking year of strandings. Weinstein was running an aviation parts manufacturing company full time and had just transported a green sea turtle successfully to a facility in Dubuque, Iowa, that summer. In November, when cold-stranded sea turtles began washing up, turtle rescuers put Weinstein in touch with Sampson and Merigo, who was then directing the New England Aquarium’s Rescue Rehab Program. And thus, Turtles Fly Too was born.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6rmR3f">
Weinstein found the organization’s first pilot through a volunteer group called Pilots N Paws that transports domestic animals. A full- time dentist in New York, Ed Filangeri’s assignment was to fly eight turtles from Massachusetts to Baltimore, Maryland. Filangeri was immediately hooked, and the two joined forces. These days, Filangeri doesn’t hesitate to cancel dental appointments, because, he says, “the turtles can’t wait” and the clients understand. The organization now counts more than 350 pilots among its ranks and provides emergency transport to other species too, including sea otters, pelicans, and seals.
</p>
<div class="c-float-right">
<aside id="QCZBCg">
<q>“I thought it was funny that they were flying with a man with a white beard on Christmas Eve”</q>
</aside>
</div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PPhJHC">
The flights vary in cost from $1,500 to $100,000 depending on the plane used, the number of drop locations, and the number of turtles on board. According to Weinstein, the average ticket price comes in at about $1,000 per turtle. Public contributions to Turtles Fly Too help cover that, as do airfields that waive landing fees or provide discounts on fuel. One Christmas Eve, when Filangeri had a mission to Virginia, he showed up in a Santa hat, and he and the crew named each of the eight traveling turtles after a flying reindeer. “I thought it was funny that they were flying with a man with a white beard on Christmas Eve,” Filangeri laughs. But, joking aside, “We do what’s necessary. We are the turtle movers,” adds Weinstein. “You can’t put a value on one Kemp’s life.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wjPJDo">
After months spent healing from injuries, being treated for their illnesses, and regaining their strength, the turtles that Looby and Gisler transported in December are ready for release. “These guys come in chronically ill, and it takes time to get them healed,” says Joe Flanagan, senior veterinarian at the Houston Zoo. On the appointed day in March 2021, the beaches of Galveston, Texas, are warm, and the spring sun reflects off the light-colored sand. Boxes filled with Kemp’s ridley sea turtles gathered from the New England coastline sit in the shade of a small tent. Several beach-goers line up behind strips of bright pink tape wafting in the wind, marking a safe corridor for the turtle parade. Aquariums and rehabilitation centers coordinate with each other to combine their releases and allow the public to attend. “We’ll probably not see these guys ever again, I hope. But if we do it would be nice to see them nesting,” says Flanagan.
</p>
<div class="p-fullbleed-block">
<figure class="e-image">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/OCTqVspRshaaDIp-UefxXu_wTI4=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23101154/FS_laurenowenslambert_deadlybucket_076_Deadly_Bucket_LL_Pick_.jpg"/></p>
<figcaption>
A rehabilitator with the Sea Life Aquarium holds one of approximately 85 endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtles released at Galveston Beach in Texas in March.
</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uiEJ81">
Staff and volunteers carefully grasp the small Kemp’s ridleys just behind their front flippers and carry them one by one down the sandy strip toward the ocean. The people gathered to watch cheer, clap, take selfies, smile, and wave as the animals complete the final leg of their strange, human-assisted migration. “Goodbye, little one! Good luck!” someone yells. “Look at how cute they are,” says another bystander. The sea turtles seem equally enthusiastic, waving their flippers wildly as if in anticipation of the swim, longing for the embrace of warm water, at last, eager to once again fly beneath the waves.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bp-page-1">
“Oh my god, he is so ready to go!” says one of the turtle rehabilitators as she places a small pale-green Kemp’s, named Hagrid, slowly into the water. With several fast pumps of his flippers, the young turtle disappears into the Gulf of Mexico.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="H8W4ym">
<em>This story originally appeared in </em><a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.biographic.com_when-2Dturtles-2Dfly_&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=7MSjEE-
cVgLCRHxk1P5PWg&amp;r=KGt6SLMia2623c0y_VkMjqe0Hf_t_Njb_Y6Ue3Pe6_0&amp;m=Efpe-7F1mWgNK4b7h1EECIH0Ew-
ZpH03afAuTAXi_prvNNdEDuHt01sK58KsF2fl&amp;s=iDhU0psF9FYcl78sn9i_oOHR34d06ur5CXP13NJY4mA&amp;e=">bioGraphic</a><em>, an online magazine about nature and solutions powered by the California Academy of Sciences.</em>
</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>22 things we think will happen in 2022</strong> -
<figure>
<img alt="“2022” painted on the ground in front of a starting line with a pair of shoes behind the line." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zdLgnI65NAGArNJDcCChc50jdsI=/137x0:4137x3000/1310x983/cdn.vox-
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70335914/GettyImages_1353931588.0.jpg"/>
<figcaption>
Getty Images/iStockphoto
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Forecasting what’s shaping up to be another bumpy year.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Yrc3Qk">
Predicting future events is hard, but it’s among the most important tasks a journalist can perform. Especially if you work at a section called Future Perfect.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gNe5yy">
Our mission is to explain the world around us to our readers, and it’s impossible to do that without anticipating what comes next. Will inflation continue to rise in the US and Europe, or level off? Will the Supreme Court allow states to ban abortion, eliminating legal access in red states? Will Brazil’s 212 million people be led by a left-wing populist, or a far-right anti-vaxxer?
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TdDlpm">
All of these questions matter, and preparing ourselves for potential outcomes — and having a good sense of how<em> </em>likely specific outcomes are — is a major part of explaining the world accurately. And<strong> </strong>if policymakers could rely on accurate predictions about the outcome of a foreign war or the advisability of a budget proposal, they could make much better policy decisions.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vECRqe">
Being<strong> </strong>good at predictions is a skill like any other — you have to practice it. University of Pennsylvania psychologist Philip Tetlock <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/8/20/9179657/tetlock-forecasting">studies forecasting</a>, holding tournaments to identify the skills that make people better than their peers at predicting future events. He finds that the most critical skills for forecasting<strong> </strong>are thinking numerically, being open to changing your mind, updating your beliefs incrementally and frequently instead of in rare big moments, and — most encouragingly — practicing. Practice makes perfect for prediction-making, but you need to do it all the time, note your successes, learn from your failures, and refine your understanding of where your forecasting abilities are strongest.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kEf5H2">
So for the third year in a row, the staff of Future Perfect is providing predictions on the year to come. As with last time, we assign each event a probability between 10 percent and 95 percent (Tetlock found that the best forecasters thought in terms of probabilities rather than simple yes/no predictions). To say that something has an 80 percent chance of happening doesn’t mean it’s definitely happening; it means that if we make five predictions at 80 percent confidence, we’re expecting to have four of them come true. (This kind of probabilistic thinking can trip people up, as <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/">Nate Silver has documented</a>.)
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="IlbXOa">
You can also read our retrospectives on our <a href="https://www.vox.com/e/22576238">2021 predictions</a>, our <a href="https://www.vox.com/e/21922847">2020 predictions</a>, and our <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-
perfect/2020/1/7/21051910/predictions-trump-brexit-recession-2019-2020">2019 predictions</a>. We don’t speak for Vox, or even for each other, and we hope that where you disagree, you’ll weigh in with predictions of your own. If you want to try your hand, the site <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6258/future-perfect-2021-series/">Metaculus</a> is a good place; the successor company to Tetlock’s Good Judgment Project also <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/">runs competitions</a>.
</p>
<h3 id="A09hGx">
The United States
</h3>
<h4 id="uxsouK">
Democrats will lose their majorities in the US House and Senate (95 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yqV91I">
Midterm elections are fairly predictable. With <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1934_United_States_elections">extremely</a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_United_States_elections">rare</a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_United_States_elections">exceptions</a>, the party in power loses seats. Public opinion is, as political scientist Christopher Wlezien has argued, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2111666">thermostatic</a>: The public elects one party, then finds that its policies are a little too far left or right for its tastes, and compensates by moving the other way in the midterms.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iMMtcg">
Wlezien, along with Joseph Bafumi and Robert Erikson, has also found that <a href="https://digitalcommons.dartmouth.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3365&amp;context=facoa">polling many months ahead of midterms</a> can be quite predictive of the eventual results. As of this writing, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/">Democrats are slightly behind in national House polling</a>, which suggests they’ll lose the popular vote for the House this coming November. Data analyst David Shor told me that as of December 9, 2021, the generic ballot polling suggests Democrats losing the House popular vote, 48 percent to 52 percent. With the current razor-thin Democratic majority in both chambers of Congress, such a performance would translate to a near-certain Republican takeover. —<em>Dylan Matthews </em>
</p>
<h4 id="Qf2lFD">
Inflation in the US will average under 3 percent (80 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gR4Yu5">
The definition of “inflation” I’m using here is annualized rate of growth in the <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-
events/publications/economic-trends/2014-economic-trends/et-20140417-pce-and-cpi-inflation-whats-the-
difference.aspx">personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index</a>, excluding food and energy. This measure, known as “core PCE,” is the one preferred by the Federal Reserve, and thus the one most relevant for public policy. I’m also specifically looking at the average of the first three quarters of 2022, as we plan on reviewing these predictions in December 2022, when the final quarter’s data won’t be available.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7jkYnu">
While higher-than-expected demand and worse-than-expected supply chains have led to elevated inflation in 2021, I suspect that problem will resolve itself in 2022. <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20211215.htm">The Fed predicts</a> core PCE inflation of 2.7 percent in 2022; the <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data#4">Congressional Budget Office predicts</a> 2 percent. <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-
research/spf-q4-2021">Professional private-sector forecasters</a> predict it will decline from 2.5 percent in quarter one to 2.3 percent in quarter three. All of this suggests to me that inflation will fall below 3 percent, toward a much more comfortable range than experienced in 2021. <em>—DM</em>
</p>
<h4 id="2bFzOb">
Unemployment in the US will fall below 4 percent by November (80 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oCu5Mq">
The current US unemployment rate is only a hair above 4 percent, so one might think it’d be an easy call to predict it will dip below 4 next year. But I do have a couple of hesitations, with the big one that the omicron coronavirus variant is here and looks likely to be at least temporarily devastating. And it might not be the last game-changing variant.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rxOyxv">
The pandemic has done bizarre things to the US employment situation, and predicting where the next year will take us requires predicting the pandemic’s course from here. That means that while I’m broadly optimistic about job growth in 2021, it’s hard to be too sure of anything. But on the whole, it seems to me that we ought to see at least a moderate degree of economic recovery over next summer and fall, and that moderate degree should be enough for unemployment to fall below 4 percent at some point. —<em>Kelsey Piper</em>
</p>
<h4 id="SUJ3Rt">
The Supreme Court will overturn <em>Roe v. Wade</em> (65 percent)
</h4></li>
</ul>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Kv8Xhe">
For nearly 50 years, anti-abortion activists have engaged in a highly organized campaign to appoint judges willing to overturn <em>Roe v. Wade</em> and allow states to enact outright bans on abortion. The savvy opinion has traditionally been that <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/07/roe-v-wade-why-republicans-wont-repeal-
it.html">conservative jurists will seek to narrow, not overrule, <em>Roe</em></a> by gradually allowing more and more restrictions short of outright bans. I think this is mistaken. While Chief Justice John Roberts may be pragmatic enough to take that option, my sense is that the other five Republican appointees genuinely believe <em>Roe</em> was wrongly decided and likely believe overturning it will be an admirable part of their legacy.
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<pre><code> &lt;img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-</code></pre>
cdn.com/thumbor/3CgfpMZDcKbRpqiPtVdHQJzw9Jc=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox- cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23116087/GettyImages_1356669828.jpg" /&gt; <cite>Leigh Vogel/Getty Images for Women’s March Inc.</cite>
<figcaption>
Participants hold signs during the Women’s March “Hold the Line for Abortion Justice” rally outside the Supreme Court in Washington, DC, on December 1, 2021.
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Q4t6fk">
The Court is currently weighing <em>Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization</em>, a case considering Mississippi’s ban on abortions after 15 weeks. After oral arguments, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/12/majority-of-court-appears-poised-to-uphold-mississippis-ban-on-most-abortions-
after-15-weeks/">court observers</a> like my colleague <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/12/1/22811837/supreme-court-
roe-wade-abortion-doomed-jackson-womens-health-dobbs-barrett-kavanaugh-roberts">Ian Millhiser</a> were confident that all the conservatives but Roberts were ready to overturn <em>Roe</em>. The prediction market at <a href="https://fantasyscotus.net/case-prediction/dobbs-v-jackson-womens-health-organization/">FantasyScotus</a> concludes the same. I defer to their expertise and think 2022 will see the emergence of a divide between red states where abortion is outright banned and blue ones where it is legally protected and funded. —<em>DM</em>
</p>
<h4 id="iylSvk">
Stephen Breyer will retire from the Supreme Court (55 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FN3EBQ">
In September, Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, the Court’s oldest and most senior member, published a <a href="https://smile.amazon.com/dp/B0979JD99R/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&amp;btkr=1">book warning against “politicizing” the Court</a>. To me, this is absurd: The Court is, has always been, and always will be a political institution. Indeed, his colleague Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s willful obliviousness to partisan political concerns will likely soon cause the overturn of <em>Roe</em> and the undermining of one of her biggest legacies. Partially as a reaction to Ginsburg’s colossal mistake, I predict Breyer will buckle to public pressure to retire before the 2022 midterms. Without a Democratic Senate, President Biden can’t replace Breyer with a like-minded jurist. Breyer is not a fool — he knows this is the dynamic, and while it likely pains him to be seen as responding to political concerns, I suspect he will ultimately let Biden pick his successor. —<em>DM</em>
</p>
<h3 id="x5fIpW">
The world
</h3>
<h4 id="RrKbsv">
Emmanuel Macron will be reelected as president of France (65 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RXy3L3">
Three years ago, when <a href="https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/#93492">Emmanuel Macron’s public approval rating</a> dipped below 25 percent, it appeared plausible that he would either decline to seek reelection (like his unpopular predecessor François Hollande) or fall to far-right leader Marine Le Pen. But Macron gained substantial ground over 2020, despite a chaotic handling of Covid-19, including <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-relax-
nightly-curfew-may-19-scrap-it-june-30-source-2021-04-29/">repeated attempts at “reopening” usually followed by a new lockdown</a> when the reopening inevitably led to a surge in the disease.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vu4yEj">
Macron also benefits from a divided far right, with newcomer Éric Zemmour digging into Le Pen’s base. Macron’s best-case scenario is that Zemmour and Le Pen continue to attack each other viciously, leaving whoever prevails in a weak position to take him on in the second round of the election. If he loses, my guess is it’s because mainstream center-right candidate Valérie Pécresse snuck past Zemmour and Le Pen and made it to the runoff, where she stands a better shot than the far-right leaders. —<em>DM</em>
</p>
<h4 id="30w8ff">
Jair Bolsonaro will be reelected as president of Brazil (55 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="P1Gp5K">
If you consult the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_general_election">opinion polls</a>, you’ll see that Bolsonaro — the radical right-wing <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/11/despite-bolsonaro-brazil-
has-barely-any-covid-anti-vaxxers.html">anti-vaxxer</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/10/opinion/brazil-
bolsonaro-militias.html">death squad fanboy</a> currently running Brazil — is behind leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by a decent margin. And I think it’s certainly possible Lula prevails.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bqDKZL">
But I still give Bolsonaro the edge for three reasons: 1) in Brazil in particular and modern South America more generally, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/27/brazil-continues-south-americas-incumbent-streak/">incumbents very often win reelection</a>; 2) in both <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_Brazilian_presidential_election">2010</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2018_Brazilian_general_election">2018</a>, the party consistently leading in polling for months in the run-up to election season wound up dropping ground rapidly and losing the election; and 3) Lula was knocked out of the 2018 race because of since-overturned corruption charges, and while there’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/what-lulas-return-to-politics-could-mean-for-
brazil/2021/03/11/58a4fff6-8251-11eb-be22-32d331d87530_story.html">probably not enough time to convict him of new charges</a> before the 2022 election, I think it’s possible that Bolsonaro and allies will succeed in pushing Lula out of the race. —<em>DM</em>
</p>
<h4 id="twpV7g">
Bongbong Marcos will be elected as president of the Philippines (55 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="xDk6Lq">
The runup to the 2022 Philippine presidential election has been chaotic, to say the least. Sara Duterte, daughter of term-limited incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte, was widely expected to run but opted instead to try for the vice presidency. Duterte then endorsed longtime aide <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/elections/bong-go-backs-out-presidential-race-2022-polls/">Bong Go</a>, but Go has since withdrawn. And <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/elections/duterte-speech-november-18-bongbong-marcos-weak-
leader/">Duterte seems displeased</a> with Bongbong Marcos, the son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, even though Marcos is Duterte’s daughter’s running mate. Among other things, Duterte has <a href="https://www.rappler.com/nation/elections/duterte-claims-presidential-bet-into-cocaine-weak-leader/">started spreading rumors that Marcos uses cocaine</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jKwbAb">
That said, the younger Duterte is a powerful ally for Marcos, as is the somewhat surprising phenomenon of autocratic nostalgia. Keiji Fujimori, the daughter of Peru’s former dictator, has come close to winning the presidency there several times, and the right-wing candidate in this year’s Chilean presidential election is the scion of a family closely allied to the late dictator Augusto Pinochet. A similar romanticization of an autocratic past could help put Marcos over the top.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oCArln">
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Philippine_presidential_election">Marcos seems to be ahead</a> of Manila mayor Isko Moreno and boxer Manny Pacquiao in the (admittedly sparse) polling of the race, and I suspect his last name and canny alliance-building will win him the presidency. —<em>DM</em>
</p>
<h4 id="XdqfFT">
Rebels will NOT capture the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa (55 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="p9c6sd">
Two years after Ethiopia’s prime minister <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1IYd5vJ6og">Abiy Ahmed won a Nobel Peace Prize</a>, he finds himself losing a <a href="https://www.vox.com/22370629/ethiopia-tigray-eritrea-amhara-war-ethnic-cleansing">brutal civil war</a>. From 1991 to 2018, Ethiopia was ruled by a coalition centered around the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. As its name suggests, the TPLF is based in the Tigray region in the country’s north, and during its rule repressed the Amhara and Oromo ethnic groups. Growing discontent led to the Oromo politician Abiy coming to power. After a couple of<strong> </strong>calm years, during which Abiy made peace with neighboring Eritrea, conflict between Abiy and the TPLF turned violent, with the national government sending the military into Tigray and bombing the capital. The <a href="https://www.vox.com/22545382/tigray-famine-ethiopia-abiy-war">humanitarian consequences have been brutal</a>, to say the least.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XBpwSK">
Abiy’s decision to purge the national army of Tigrayans (when <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/now/shifting-fortunes-ethiopias-massive-army-070441578.html">half the officer corps was Tigrayan</a>) weakened his position and helped set up a TPLF comeback. Now, the TPLF has not only pushed the national army out of Tigray, but <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/new-armed-alliance-challenges-
ethiopia-premier-as-crisis-worsens">allied with a powerful group of Oromo rebels</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TOeS5w">
Disclosure: When I wrote the draft article initially in early December, I predicted that the TPLF <em>would</em> capture the capital of Addis Ababa, as <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/15/ethiopia-tplf-abiy-tigray-war-amhara-oromo-avert-
catastrophe-in-ethiopia/">seemed likely around that time</a>. But since then, the national army has regained ground and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/20/tigray-amhara-afar-ethiopia/">the TPLF has withdrawn from strategically important neighboring regions</a>. So I reversed my prediction, albeit with considerable remaining uncertainty. —<em>DM</em>
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
cdn.com/thumbor/vJCRcz6vNPGjhN_IWQVKxATB3ow=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23116299/GettyImages_1233762949.jpg"/> <cite>Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>
People on a bus greet Tigray People’s Liberation Front fighters on a truck as they arrive in Mekele, the capital of the Tigray region of Ethiopia, in June 2021.
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h4 id="5bBKEE">
China will not reopen its borders in the first half of 2022 (80 percent)<strong> </strong>
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TvRhYs">
China has been intent on preserving a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/27/world/asia/china-zero-
covid-virus.html">zero-Covid policy</a>, even as other governments have abandoned that strategy. When a single person tests positive there, it can trigger a <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/03/china-zero-covid-restrictions-
shanghai-disney/">lockdown</a> for tens of thousands of people. The country mandates quarantines for even remote contacts of positive cases. And the authoritarian government has tied up its prestige with its ability to crush the virus.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3KkxUA">
There’s no indication that China’s approach will change in the coming months. In fact, when one of its top scientists suggested relaxing the zero-Covid policy in 2022, he was <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/20/china/china-zhang-wenhong-mic-intl-hnk/index.html">ridiculed</a>. Economically, China can afford to keep its borders closed; exports and foreign investment are doing just fine. And politically, it may actually be in China’s interest to stay closed: With the Beijing Winter Olympics coming up in February, and followed by the session of its rubber-stamp parliament and, later, party congress, the government may not be keen to let in foreigners who might critique its policies, especially its <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22311356/china-
uyghur-birthrate-sterilization-genocide">human rights abuses</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pUgPXG">
So I predict that China will not reopen its borders in the first half of the year. Specifically, I mean that China will not allow in foreigners for nonessential purposes like tourism.<strong> </strong><em>—Sigal Samuel </em>
</p>
<h4 id="v7p7Uj">
Chinese GDP will continue to grow for the first three quarters of the year (95 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JxFyE0">
Per <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=CN">World Bank data</a>, the last year that Chinese GDP fell was 1976, when Mao Zedong died and the Gang of Four was deposed. The 2008 global financial crisis and the pandemic in 2020 (originating in China) couldn’t stop the country’s economy from growing. I’m therefore very confident that Chinese GDP in the first three quarters of 2022 (which are the quarters we’ll consider for this prediction) will grow. —<em>DM</em>
</p>
<h3 id="NpjiSm">
Covid-19
</h3>
<h4 id="uhAaHZ">
20 percent of US children between 6 months and 5 years old will have received at least one Covid vaccine by year’s end (65 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mcHJ84">
Vaccine makers are busy testing the safety and efficacy of their shots in children under 5. Pfizer/BioNTech is furthest along, with Phase 2/3 trials currently running that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/03/health/covid-19-vaccines-children-younger-than-5-wellness/index.html">may yield initial data</a> within the next month. Of course, the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will still need to issue an approval before shots can go into arms, but Pfizer/BioNTech is already saying it expects to deliver the doses by April 2022.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="8oG5Pm">
Dr.<strong> </strong>Anthony Fauci seems to think a spring vaccination rollout is doable. “Hopefully within a reasonably short period of time, likely the beginning of next year in 2022, in the first quarter of 2022, it will be available to them,” <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-babies-toddlers-should-get-covid-19-vaccines-by-spring-2021-11">he said</a>, referring to kids under 5.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Ylq2g0">
That said, according to polling from the Kaiser Family Foundation, <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-winter-2021-update-on-parents-
views-of-vaccines/">30 percent</a> of parents with kids under 5 say they will “definitely not” vaccinate the kids. As of this writing, only about <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/few-eligible-american-children-covid-19-vaccine-
fauci-2021-12">17 percent</a> of kids aged 5-11 have gotten at least one dose. When it comes to even younger kids, the hesitation may be more pronounced as some parents choose to “wait and see” about side effects; polling <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/09/20/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine">suggests</a> that parents become more hesitant about getting their kids the Covid vaccine the younger the children<strong> </strong>are. So, although I think there’s a decent chance that 20 percent of kids between 6 months and 5 years old will have gotten at least one shot if we give the “wait and see” crowd until the end of 2022, I’m not going to bet on a higher percentage. —<em>SS</em>
</p>
<h4 id="3Ws4as">
The WHO will designate another variant of concern by year’s end (75 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="18hFdV">
I really hope I’m wrong on this one. But I fear a new variant of concern will appear on <a href="https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/">the WHO’s list</a>, for a simple reason: Between rich countries hoarding doses and some populations showing hesitancy to get immunized, <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22808454/omicron-global-vaccination-efforts-covid">we’re not vaccinating the globe fast enough</a> to starve the virus of opportunities to mutate into something new and serious. In low-income countries, only <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">7.3 percent</a> of people have received at least one dose.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MOkTmn">
Within the past year, five variants of concern have made it onto the WHO’s list. I don’t have high hopes that we’ll go all of 2022 without adding at least one more to that sad litany. —<em>SS</em>
</p>
<h4 id="AT6NeF">
12 billion shots will be given out against Covid-19 globally by November 2022 … (80 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TjNRAz">
The global vaccine rollout has not been as good as was hoped for, or as good as it needs to be to prevent the emergence of new variants. But compared to what the world was capable of even a few decades ago, it has been pretty impressive. It is about one year since the first countries issued approval for vaccines developed against Covid-19, and already more than <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-
distribution/#:~:text=More%20than%208.55%20billion%20doses,administered%20">8.5 billion doses have been administered</a>. If that rate continued into next year, the world would easily hit 12 billion shots given out, or enough for every person over 20 to get two shots.
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Ib_upj5WxNntK2hW7g-guyiNe-c=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23116336/GettyImages_1237206936.jpg"/> <cite>Fadel Itani/NurPhoto via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>
People wait to receive a Covid-19 vaccine in Beirut, Lebanon, in December 2021.
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MNSnuU">
Countries probably won’t maintain that rate or even close to it, because people easy to reach for vaccination have largely already been reached, and the remaining vaccination efforts are going to have to involve delivery in poor and rural areas and overcoming vaccine hesitancy. But I still expect the world to hit this milestone, probably sometime in the summer.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FmQTGe">
Of course, those 12 billion shots will still be nowhere near evenly distributed; many rich countries are now encouraging boosters and vaccinating children, and there are still some parts of the world where vaccination rates are very low. —<em>KP</em>
</p>
<h4 id="apyFGr">
… but at least one country will have less than 10 percent of people vaccinated with two shots by November 2022 — (70 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WluyN2">
For vaccination to help protect the world against the emergence of future variants, there can’t be huge gaps in vaccination coverage. Unfortunately, that’s probably exactly what we’re going to get. In many areas, a lot of people are reluctant to get vaccinated; in others, access to vaccines has been severely limited, and changing that will require funding and dedicated effort that rich countries have been unwilling to extend.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="abVCRt">
In many parts of the world, health care clinics are viewed as an expensive option for emergencies, not as resources for preventive care; they’re also thought of as primarily serving pregnant people and young children. That makes it hard to get older people at highest risk from Covid-19 vaccinated. Underresourced vaccination campaigns won’t succeed, and sufficient resources means not just access to enough physical vaccines but also the capacity to get them to people. I’d love to see this happen in 2022, but unfortunately I don’t expect to see it everywhere it’s needed. —<em>KP</em>
</p>
<h3 id="T6wPJX">
Science and technology
</h3>
<h4 id="foYVpu">
A psychedelic drug will be decriminalized or legalized in at least one new US state (75 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Xk9oYI">
Psychedelics have been undergoing a renaissance over the past few years as the evidence mounts that they have potential to <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-
perfect/2020/10/9/21506664/psychedelics-mental-health-depression-ptsd-psilocybin-mdma">help treat mental health conditions like depression and PTSD</a>. A movement to decriminalize or legalize such drugs is gaining traction. In 2020, Oregon voters elected to <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/3/21546824/live-results-
psychedelic-drugs-washington-dc-oregon">legalize psilocybin</a>, the main psychoactive ingredient in magic mushrooms, in supervised therapeutic settings (the state also <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21552710/oregon-drug-
decriminalization-marijuana-legalization">decriminalized all drugs</a>). In Washington, DC, voters effectively <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/3/21546824/live-results-psychedelic-drugs-washington-dc-
oregon">decriminalized</a> psychedelic plants. A handful of US cities, including Detroit and Denver, have <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/detroit-just-decriminalized-psychedelics-and-magic-mushrooms-heres-what-
that-means">decriminalized psilocybin</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0sAlPE">
As momentum continues to build, I think there’s a solid chance we’ll see a psychedelic drug decriminalized or legalized in at least one more US state. I’ll be keeping my eyes on California, which will put <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/california-psychedelics-bill-put-on-back-burner-
until-2022/">decriminalization of a wide class of psychedelics</a> to a vote in a 2022 ballot measure. —<em>SS</em>
</p>
<h4 id="KpD8zn">
AI will discover a new drug — or an old drug fit for new purposes — that’s promising enough for clinical trials (85 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TlrEk5">
For years, there’s been a ton of hype about AI’s potential to transform drug discovery. We’re finally starting to see the hype turn into reality. In 2020, <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-
perfect/2020/2/27/21153521/ai-antibiotic-drug-resistance-superbugs">AI researchers based at MIT found a new type of antibiotics</a>, and a British startup called Exscientia said its new pill for OCD would be the first <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/1/31/21117102/artificial-intelligence-drug-discovery-exscientia">AI-designed drug to be clinically tested on humans</a>. In 2021, Exscientia followed that up with two more drugs, one for <a href="https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/exscientia-to-start-world-first-clinical-trials-of-ai-designed-immuno-
oncology-drug/">patients with tumors</a> and another for <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210513005059/en/Exscientia-Announces-Second-Molecule-Created-Using-AI-
From-Sumitomo-Dainippon-Pharma-Collaboration-to-Enter-Phase-1-Clinical-Trial">Alzheimer’s disease psychosis</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Zc4imY">
Based on the track record of the past two years, I predict that another such discovery will happen in 2022, yielding a drug that’s promising enough to merit a clinical trial. This could be either a totally new compound or an existing drug that AI has found can be repurposed for a new use. One big new player to watch in this arena is <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/4/22763535/google-alphabet-drug-discovery-deepmind-ai">Isomorphic Labs, just launched by Alphabet</a> to discover new drugs using DeepMind’s AI. (Demis Hassabis, the CEO of DeepMind, will also serve as Isomorphic’s CEO.) —<em>SS</em>
</p>
<h4 id="EAjl4a">
US government will not renew the ban on funding gain-of- function research (60 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QVoBnt">
In 2014, after a series of disastrous lab accidents made it clear that lab procedures weren’t adequate to prevent the release of deadly pathogens, the US government temporarily paused funding for “gain of function” research in diseases that could affect humans and make viruses more deadly or transmissible.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zZ8PE2">
To my mind, this was an incredibly sensible call by the Obama administration. Biology research is valuable, and we should as a society invest more in it, but lab research that involves engineering what could effectively function as deadly weapons isn’t acceptable and shouldn’t be funded. Researchers engaged in gain-of- function work pushed back on the ban, and in <a href="https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/who-we-are/nih-
director/statements/nih-lifts-funding-pause-gain-function-research">2017 it was reversed</a> — the US is now <a href="https://undark.org/2021/09/27/gain-of-function-research-all-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder/">funding such experiments again</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eQLS4D">
This is outrageous, and if anything could prompt the government to revisit it, you’d think it’d be the millions of deaths from a new pandemic over the past two years. But I haven’t yet seen any moves by the US government to put this policy back in place. I sincerely hope that changes in 2022. —<em>KP</em>
</p>
<h3 id="XHZtIX">
Environment
</h3>
<h4 id="VWW67N">
The Biden administration will set the social cost of carbon at $100 per ton or more (70 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YhQl7r">
The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a measure, in dollars, of how much economic damage results from emitting 1 ton of carbon dioxide. SCC is an important measure because it guides policymaking — and there’s good reason to think <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22643358/social-cost-of-carbon-mortality-biden-
discounting">we’ve been radically underestimating it</a>. Although the Obama administration had set the SCC at $51 per ton, the Trump administration put it as low as $1. In early 2021, the Biden administration restored it to $51 as an interim move, promising to study the matter in depth and release its final determination in early 2022.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ArRKPq">
Recent findings indicate that the official social cost of carbon should be substantially increased. One <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24487-w">study</a> found that when factoring in projected heat-related deaths — the “mortality cost of carbon” — the SCC jumps to a whopping $258 per ton. The Biden administration probably won’t go that far, but it really should go at least as high as $100, economists say. Two top experts on SCC — Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University and Lord Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics — have <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/statement-in-response-to-biden-administration-announcement-on-the-
social-cost-of-carbon/">said</a> around $100 would be appropriate. Other <a href="https://legacy-
assets.eenews.net/open_files/assets/2021/01/14/document_cw_01.pdf">experts</a>, not to mention <a href="https://www.dec.ny.gov/press/122070.html">New York state</a>, have decided $125 is a better estimate. Taking all this into consideration, I think it’s reasonable to predict that Biden will go with at least $100. —<em>SS</em>
</p>
<h4 id="4TAu2E">
2022 will be warmer than 2021 (80 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="HK8OK1">
One of the more obvious — yet sometimes overlooked — consequences of climate change is that almost every year is warmer than the last, meaning experiencing the warmest year in recorded history is now routine. This means that a recurring prediction here at Future Perfect is this gloomy one: that it is 80 percent likely that each year will be warmer than the last. This is based on looking at the last 25 years of atmospheric temperature data: On average, in four out of five years, this prediction would be right. —<em>KP</em>
</p>
<h3 id="oDmoNl">
Culture
</h3>
<h4 id="yrMqrH">
Kenneth Branagh’s <em>Belfast</em> will win Best Picture (55 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Y8UMiP">
This is not a very brave prediction; <a href="https://www.oddschecker.com/us/awards/oscars/best-picture">bet365</a>, <a href="https://www.vegasinsider.com/awards/odds/oscars/">BetMGM</a>, and <a href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/special-
bets/oscars/10630003/best-picture/924.262221273">Betfair</a> all give <em>Belfast</em>, Kenneth Branagh’s autobiographical film about his childhood in Northern Ireland during the Troubles, the edge to win Best Picture. All of those betting sites give it odds of roughly 25 percent, so I’m going out on a bit of a limb by giving it higher odds than the field, but I think that’s justified.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6FdECG">
The Oscars like giving late-career awards to directors they forgot to honor earlier, even if the awarded films are inferior to their best. (Think Martin Scorsese for <em>The Departed</em> rather than <em>Taxi Driver</em> or <em>Goodfellas</em>, or Guillermo del Toro for <em>The Shape of Water</em> and not <em>Pan’s Labyrinth</em>). Branagh, whose reputation rests on his Shakespeare adaptations in the 1980s and ’90s, fits the bill. Repeat wins for directors are rare, which is bad news for del Toro’s <em>Nightmare Alley</em> and Steven Spielberg’s <em>West Side Story</em>. The best competition I can see are Jane Campion’s <em>The Power of the Dog</em> and Paul Thomas Anderson’s <em>Licorice Pizza</em>, but both of those directors are, to be frank, too good to win Oscars. Branagh is in the midcult sweet spot. —<em>DM</em>
</p>
<h4 id="UYatjH">
Norway will win the most medals at the 2022 Winter Olympics (60 percent)
</h4>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="W5kMs9">
Similar to my Oscar prediction, here I’m relying on the odds of experts. Gracenote, a division of Nielsen, <a href="https://www.gracenote.com/virtual-medal-table/">predicts the Olympics</a> by looking at recent results in non-Olympic competitions in various events. It<strong> </strong>gives Norway a strong edge in Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, with 45 medals to the Russian Olympic Committee’s 33. Norway also came in first in Pyeongchang in 2018, and while the Russians are formidable opposition (they came first on their home turf in Sochi in 2014), the fact that they’re still not allowed to compete as the nation of Russia, due to doping scandals, holds them back. They underperformed in 2018, and I see them coming up short again this time. —<em>DM</em>
</p>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>One Good Thing: The impish joy of the board game Sushi Go Party!</strong> -
<figure>
<img alt="The cover of Sushi Go Party!" src="https://cdn.vox-
cdn.com/thumbor/vY6tQZMw9fv5XWC5GLkGjdmJejE=/0x17:1147x877/1310x983/cdn.vox-
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70333383/419_Sushi_go_party_top.0.jpg"/>
<figcaption>
Sushi Go Party! is a great board game that can be played with many players as easily as it can just a few. | Gamewright
</figcaption></figure></li>
</ul>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
This holiday season, Sushi Go Party! may be the best solution to big gatherings or cabin fever.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hNOzvM">
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wwDakb">
Many board games are best when there are just four people at the table. While the instructions might <em>say</em> a game can be played by two people or six people, something is often lost when the game scales up or down.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2Bnqk5">
Great games explicitly designed for two or three players are tricky to find, but it’s possible to do if you know what you’re looking for. Great games for five or six are harder still. And if you want to go above six, forget about it. At that point, you’re in the territory of things like <em>Apples to Apples</em> or <em>Cards Against Humanity</em>, where the fun is less in strategy and more in trying to make everybody at the table laugh.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lLMe76">
Far be it from me to say that making all of your friends and relatives laugh is a bad goal, but I’m always on the lookout for a game that’s perfect to play with a group as large or as small as you want. For those occasions, I always turn to <a href="https://gamewright.com/product/Sushi-Go-Party">Sushi Go Party!</a><em> </em>The game offers just enough strategy and just enough pure luck that it will be fun for almost anyone, no matter their play style, and it’s maybe the only game I’ve consistently found to be as fun for any group size. (I recommend <em>Party</em> because it features special rules for small or large groups. The original Sushi Go! is best with a group of four.)
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="SuoBHy">
At its heart, Sushi Go Party!<em> </em>is a bit like gin rummy. You are trying to form combinations out of a hand of cards to score more points than the other players at the table. Some combinations are easier to attain than others, but the number of points you’ll get for those trickier combinations is much higher as well. The cards all have adorable drawings of various items on the menu at a sushi restaurant, though you might not want to think too much about, say, your sashimi having googly eyes and a winning smile the next time you order sushi.
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<pre><code> &lt;img alt="A shot of the various cards and other pieces of the game Sushi Go Party! " src="https://cdn.vox-</code></pre>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">cdn.com/thumbor/gtxT06vxcmKuhX1JsO8nZlLYVxY=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox- cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23115777/419_sushi_go_party_prduct_shot.jpg" /&gt; <cite>Gamewright</cite></p>
<figcaption>
Just look at how cute those little sushi guys are!
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="60lRvW">
What makes the game unique, however, is that your hand is never the same hand. After you select a card and play it on the table in front of you, where everyone can see it, you pass the hand clockwise to the person next to you, then take the hand of the person on the other side. The idea is to replicate the sushi traveling around on a revolving path, like on a conveyer belt. If you don’t grab the tempura you want right now, someone else might grab it as it goes around the circle, especially if they see that you want it and that it’s vital to your point-scoring strategy.
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Since the number of cards in each hand is fixed and since everybody is playing one card per turn, the number dwindles the longer the round goes on. (There are three rounds in total in a game.) So if your friend plays that nigiri card you let go a couple of turns ago in the hope it might find its way back to you, you’d better have a backup strategy for scoring points. It’s just the right combination of cute and cutthroat, so you can have fun competing with friends, but things will never get <em>too</em> harried.
</p>
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Notably, Sushi Go Party! offers a wide variety of different kinds of play. Once you’ve got the basic rules down, the game’s instructions provide a variety of different setups for many potential experiences. One setup is ideal for just two players, and another works best with seven or eight. One is great for those who want to strategize, and another is great for those who want to score lots and lots of points.
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This sheer number of potential setups is what takes the game from something enjoyable to one that I bring to almost every gathering I go to. It plays just as well if it’s just my wife and me as it does if her entire family will be joining us. Sushi Go Party!<em> </em>has grown beyond its humble roots as a board game mostly known to hobbyists to a place where you can purchase it in most major big-box stores. Most of the time, when a game pulls off that journey, that’s because it’s a really well-designed game and because it does something few other games out there can.
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Sushi Go Party! is, yes, a very well-designed game (I’ve probably played it several dozen times, and I still enjoy it). But it’s also one of the single best games out there to break out at almost any occasion, because no matter your group, there will be a way to find a variation of this game that will fit.
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Also, the little anthropomorphic sushi drawings are just unbearably cute. I can’t get enough of them.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3lK0tP">
<em>Sushi Go Party! is available on </em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Sushi-Go-Party-Card-
Game/dp/B01CETNKE2"><em>Amazon</em></a><em>. For more recommendations from the world of culture, check out the </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/one-good-thing"><em>One Good Thing</em></a><em> archives.</em>
</p>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Beating India in T20 World Cup best moment of 2021 for Pak team: Babar Azam</strong> - Win lifted the profile of the team and gave the players enormous confidence, says Pakistan skipper</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>England players should not miss international duty to play in IPL: Atherton</strong> - Atherton felt Ben Stokes is a “viable alternative” to replace Joe Root as skipper for the five-day format</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Bumrah’s elevation as ‘stop-gap’ ODI deputy ahead of Pant, Iyer is selectors’ way of “avoiding clutter”</strong> - Bumrah elevation as vice-captain is a message to both Pant and Iyer to show supreme all-format consistency</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Raducanu pulls out of Australian Open warm-up event in Melbourne</strong> - The 19-year-old was scheduled to headline one of the two women’s WTA 250 warm-up tournaments taking place at Melbourne Park — dubbed the ‘Melbourne Summer Set’ — from January 4-9</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>NZ vs Bangladesh | Conway century guides New Zealand to 258-5 on day 1</strong> - Conway navigated the difficult first hour, then flourished, reaching his century after tea from 186 balls</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Scarce funding, unchanged style behind Mayawati’s conspicuous absence</strong> - BSP chief says she ‘does not want to change’ her party’s ways of working and campaigning</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>CITU to host CPSU coordination meeting in Vizag on January 2</strong> - Meet holds significance as protest is being organised against sale of steel plant</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Amit Shah expresses gratitude to PM for releasing ₹ 20,900 crore to farmers</strong> - Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Saturday expressed his gratitude to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for transferring ₹ 20,900 crore to 10 crore farmers</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Naxals on back boot, large part of Bastar free of their menace: Chhattisgarh CM</strong> - Bhupesh Baghel said his government has changed Chhattisgarh’s image as an insurgency-affected State</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>List of major stampedes at temples, other religious gatherings in India</strong> - A list of some such major tragedies in India after 2000.</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Covid-19: WHO chief optimistic disease will be beaten in 2022</strong> - The organisation ends the year on a positive note but warns about “nationalism and vaccine hoarding”.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>French ban on plastic packaging for fruit and vegetables begins</strong> - Officials hope the law will prevent a billion items of single use plastics every year.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine tensions: Putin tells Biden new sanctions could rupture ties</strong> - The US and Russian presidents spoke by phone for almost an hour amid rising tensions over Ukraine.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Covid: France suspends transit ban for UK nationals during Christmas period</strong> - EU-based Brits trying to get home will be allowed to cross France during the Christmas period.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Covid: Woman isolates in toilet for five hours after positive mid-flight test</strong> - A US teacher says she spent five hours in the toilet after testing positive for Covid-19.</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>To learn Klingon or Esperanto: What invented languages can teach us</strong> - NuqneH! Saluton! A linguistic anthropologist studies those who invent new tongues. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1822688">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Physicists captured, quantified the sound of champagne’s effervescence</strong> - The production of the sound coincides with the rupture of the bubble at liquid surface. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1822847">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Attempt to compare different types of intelligence falls a bit short</strong> - <em>Bots and Beasts</em> gets at what makes for intelligence, but SciFi may have done it better. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1822807">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>How leaded fuel was sold for 100 years, despite knowing its health risks</strong> - It’s been 100 years since leaded fuel was introduced, a purely profit-driven move. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1822576">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>TV Technica 2021: Our favorite shows and binges helped us combat pandemic fatigue</strong> - From dark comedies to classic sci-fi adaptations, here’s what we loved in 2021. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1800822">link</a></p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
<ul>
<li><strong>What does Bill Clinton say to Hillary after having sex?</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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“I’ll be home in 15 minutes.”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/SyllabubSecret7727"> /u/SyllabubSecret7727 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/rt6rnd/what_does_bill_clinton_say_to_hillary_after/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/rt6rnd/what_does_bill_clinton_say_to_hillary_after/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><strong>There was an old professor who started every class with a vulgar joke.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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After one particularly nasty example, the women in the class decided to walk out the next time he started.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The professor got wind of this plot, so the next morning he walked in and said, “Good morning, class. Did you hear the one about the shortage of whores in Newfound Land?”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
With that, all the women stood up and headed for the door.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Wait, ladies,” called the professor, “The boat doesn’t leave until tomorrow!”
</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/RudraTheDestroyer"> /u/RudraTheDestroyer </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/rsyoa3/there_was_an_old_professor_who_started_every/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/rsyoa3/there_was_an_old_professor_who_started_every/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><strong>“Good morning Sir, what’s your name?” “M…M…M…Michael…”</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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“Oh, i see, you are a stammerer, i am sorry for that!”
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“Well no, actually my father was… but the registry office guy was a son of a bitch”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/nikan69"> /u/nikan69 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/rtgias/good_morning_sir_whats_your_name_mmmmichael/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/rtgias/good_morning_sir_whats_your_name_mmmmichael/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><strong>Betty White Has Passed Away…</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The Queen and Keith Richards move on to the Finals
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/JohnJackField"> /u/JohnJackField </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/rt6p6a/betty_white_has_passed_away/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/rt6p6a/betty_white_has_passed_away/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><strong>An American, An Indian, And A Russian Meet The Devil</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
<div class="md">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
An American, an Indian, and a Russian end up in Hell and plead to the Devil that they don’t belong here. The Devil, bored, makes them an offer: “I will strike you 3 times with my whip, and if you survive, I’ll let you go. You can use anything you want as a shield”.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The American goes first. He builds a high-tech shield from depleted uranium and composites, and hides behind it. The Devil strikes once - the shield cracks; twice - the shield falls apart; thrice - the American is no more.
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Next goes the Indian. He puts himself in some advanced Yoga position and goes into deep hibernation. The Devil strikes once - nothing; twice - the Indian shivers a bit; thrice - the Indian grunts, but lives. The Devil is amazed and tells him he’s free to go.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The Indian asks, “May I stay and watch? In all jokes the Russians somehow come out on top. I want to see how he will do it this time”.
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The Devil nods and turns to the Russian: “So, what will you use as a shield?”
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The Russian replies, “The Indian, of course”.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/ClassroomTotal4025"> /u/ClassroomTotal4025 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/rsyk4p/an_american_an_indian_and_a_russian_meet_the_devil/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/rsyk4p/an_american_an_indian_and_a_russian_meet_the_devil/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
</ul>
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