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<title>17 August, 2023</title>
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<title>Covid-19 Sentry</title><meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" name="viewport"/><link href="styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><link href="../styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><link href="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.css" rel="stylesheet"/><script src="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.js"></script></head>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="covid-19-sentry">Covid-19 Sentry</h1>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
<ul>
<li><a href="#from-preprints">From Preprints</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-clinical-trials">From Clinical Trials</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-pubmed">From PubMed</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-patent-search">From Patent Search</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-preprints">From Preprints</h1>
<ul>
<li><strong>Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the restaurant industry: Comparisons between immigrants and US-born workers</strong> -
<div>
The COVID-19 pandemic reduced employment in the U.S., across many industries. The restaurant industry was particularly hard hit, losing 2.5 million jobs in 2020 alone. Now in the recovery from the pandemic, the restaurant industry is experiencing an unprecedented shortage of workers, forcing many restaurants to raise their offered wages, reduce their hours of service, or close altogether. How have workers been affected by these demand shocks? Understanding the demand for restaurant workers during the pandemic and the recovery has important policy implications because restaurant workers make up the third largest occupation group and have the lowest wages of any occupation group. Foreign-born workers in particular are overrepresented in restaurants and in the back-of-house jobs that are lower paying and more dangerous. Using results from our nationally-representative survey of restaurant owners and hiring managers and our analysis of Community Population Survey data, we found that foreign-born workers fared worse than native-born workers as the restaurant industry shed jobs during the height of the pandemic. Our findings are consistent with previous studies suggesting that foreign-born workers are more vulnerable to negative business cycles than their native-born counterparts. But during the various stages of the recovery, when the restaurant industry experienced worker shortages, we also found that there was very little shifting toward foreign-born workers. These results are at odds with previous studies suggesting that foreign-born workers would be more attractive in these circumstances because they are more adaptable to changing labor demands (including dangerous working conditions like a pandemic) and do not have access to social safety net benefits like unemployment compensation. Part of the explanation for this surprising result may be found in recent, more restrictive immigration policies that have decreased the pool of available foreign-born workers.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://osf.io/d5bc6/" target="_blank">Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the restaurant industry: Comparisons between immigrants and US-born workers</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Post-recovery health domain scores among outpatients by SARS-CoV-2 testing status during the pre-Delta period</strong> -
<div>
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Background: Symptoms of COVID-19 including fatigue and dyspnea, may persist for weeks to months after SARS-CoV-2 infection. This study compared self-reported disability among SARS-CoV-2-positive and negative persons with mild to moderate COVID-19-like illness who presented for outpatient care before widespread COVID-19 vaccination. Methods: Unvaccinated adults with COVID-19-like illness enrolled within 10 days of illness onset at three US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network sites were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by molecular assay. Enrollees completed an enrollment questionnaire and two follow-up surveys (7-24 days and 2-7 months after illness onset) online or by phone to assess illness characteristics and health status. The second follow-up survey included questions measuring global health, physical function, fatigue, and dyspnea. Scores in the four domains were compared by participants SARS-CoV-2 test results in univariate analysis and multivariable Gamma regression. Results: During September 22, 2020 - February 13, 2021, 2,712 eligible adults were enrolled, 1,541 completed the first follow-up survey, and 650 completed the second follow-up survey. SARS-CoV-2-positive participants were more likely to report fever at acute illness but were otherwise comparable to SARS-CoV-2-negative participants. At first follow-up, SARS-CoV-2-positive participants were less likely to have reported fully or mostly recovered from their illness compared to SARS-CoV-2-negative participants. At second follow-up, no differences by SARS-CoV-2 test results were detected in the four domains in the multivariable model. Conclusion: Self-reported disability was similar among outpatient SARS-CoV-2-positive and -negative adults 2-7 months after illness onset.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.14.23294086v1" target="_blank">Post-recovery health domain scores among outpatients by SARS-CoV-2 testing status during the pre-Delta period</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>The predictive and prognostic value of peripheral blood antigen-specific memory B cells in phospholipase A2 receptor-associated membranous nephropathy</strong> -
<div>
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Background Phospholipase A2 receptor-associated membranous nephropathy (PLA2R-MN) is an anti-PLA2R antibody (PLA2R-Ab) mediated autoimmune kidney disease. Although antibody titer correlates closely with disease activity, whether it can provide longer-term predictions on disease course and progression is unclear. Rituximab, a B-cell depletion therapy, has become the first-line treatment option for PLA2R-MN; however, the response to Rituximab varies among patients. Methods We developed a flow cytometry-based test that detects and quantifies PLA2R antigen-specific memory B cells (PLA2R-MBCs) in peripheral blood, the primary source for PLA2R-Ab production upon disease relapse. We applied the test to 159 blood samples collected from 28 patients with PLA2R-MN (at diagnosis, during and after immunosuppressive treatment, immunological remission, and relapse) to evaluate the relationship between circulating PLA2R-MBC levels and disease activity. Results The level of PLA2R-MBCs in healthy controls (n=56) is less than or equal to 1.5% of the total MBC compartment. High circulating PLA2R-MBC levels were detected in two patients post-Rituximab despite achieving immunologic and proteinuric remission, as well as in two patients with negative serum autoantibody but increasing proteinuria. Elimination of these cells with Rituximab improved clinical outcomes. Moreover, five patients exhibited elevated PLA2R-MBC levels before disease relapse, followed by a rapid decline to baseline when relapse became clinically evident. COVID-19 vaccination or SARS-CoV-2 infection significantly affected the dynamics of circulating PLA2R-MBCs. Conclusions This study suggests that monitoring PLA2R-MBC levels in patients with PLA2R-MN may help refine and individualize immunosuppressive therapy and predict disease course and progression. The technology and findings may also have broader applications in the clinical management of other autoimmune diseases.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.14.23292885v1" target="_blank">The predictive and prognostic value of peripheral blood antigen-specific memory B cells in phospholipase A2 receptor-associated membranous nephropathy</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Coronaviruses Spike glycoprotein endodomains: the sequence and structure-based comprehensive study</strong> -
<div>
The flexibility of proteins makes them available to interact with many biomolecules in the cell. Specifically, such interactions in viruses help them to perform more functions despite having a smaller genome. Therefore, these flexible regions can be exciting and essential targets to be explored for their role in pathogenicity and therapeutic developments as they achieve essential interactions. In the continuation with our previous study on disordered analysis of SARS-CoV-2 spike cytoplasmic tail (CTR), or endodomain, here we have explored the disordered potential endodomains of six other coronaviruses using multiple bioinformatics approaches and molecular dynamics simulations. Based on the comprehensive analysis of its sequence and structural composition, we report the varying disorder propensity in endodomains of spike proteins of coronaviruses. The observations of this study may help to understand the importance of spike glycoprotein endodomain and creating therapeutic interventions against them.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.16.553512v1" target="_blank">Coronaviruses Spike glycoprotein endodomains: the sequence and structure-based comprehensive study</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Predicting host-based, synthetic lethal antiviral targets from omics data</strong> -
<div>
Traditional antiviral therapies often have limited effectiveness due to toxicity and development of drug resistance. Host-based antivirals, while an alternative, may lead to non-specific effects. Recent evidence shows that virus-infected cells can be selectively eliminated by targeting synthetic lethal (SL) partners of proteins disrupted by viral infection. Thus, we hypothesized that genes depleted in CRISPR KO screens of virus-infected cells may be enriched in SL partners of proteins altered by infection. To investigate this, we established a computational pipeline predicting SL drug targets of viral infections. First, we identified SARS-CoV-2-induced changes in gene products via a large compendium of omics data. Second, we identified SL partners for each altered gene product. Last, we screened CRISPR KO data for SL partners required for cell viability in infected cells. Despite differences in virus-induced alterations detected by various omics data, they share many predicted SL targets, with significant enrichment in CRISPR KO-depleted datasets. Comparing data from SARS-CoV-2 and influenza infections, we found possible broad-spectrum, host-based antiviral SL targets. This suggests that CRISPR KO data are replete with common antiviral targets due to their SL relationship with virus-altered states and that such targets can be revealed from analysis of omics datasets and SL predictions.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.15.553430v1" target="_blank">Predicting host-based, synthetic lethal antiviral targets from omics data</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Evidence of Leaky Protection Following COVID-19 Vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 Infection in an Incarcerated Population</strong> -
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Whether SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccines confer exposure-dependent (“leaky”) protection against infection remains unknown. We examined the effect of prior infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity on infection risk among residents of Connecticut correctional facilities during periods of predominant Omicron and Delta transmission. Residents with cell, cellblock, and no documented exposure to SARS-CoV-2 infected residents were matched by facility and date. During the Omicron period, prior infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity reduced the infection risk of residents without a documented exposure (HR: 0.36 [0.25-0.54]; 0.57 [0.42-0.78]; 0.24 [0.15-0.39]; respectively) and with cellblock exposures (0.61 [0.49-0.75]; 0.69 [0.58-0.83]; 0.41 [0.31-0.55]; respectively) but not with cell exposures (0.89 [0.58-1.35]; 0.96 [0.64-1.46]; 0.80 [0.46-1.39]; respectively). Associations were similar during the Delta period and when analyses were restricted to tested residents. Although associations may not have been thoroughly adjusted due to dataset limitations, the findings suggest that prior infection and vaccination may be leaky, highlighting the potential benefits of pairing vaccination with non-pharmaceutical interventions in crowded settings.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.02.17.23286049v2" target="_blank">Evidence of Leaky Protection Following COVID-19 Vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 Infection in an Incarcerated Population</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Predicting subnational incidence of COVID-19 cases and deaths in EU countries</strong> -
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Background: Recurring COVID-19 waves highlight the need for tools able to quantify transmission risk, and identify geographical areas at risk of outbreaks. Local outbreak risk depends on complex immunity patterns resulting from previous infections, vaccination, waning and immune escape, alongside other factors (population density, social contact patterns). Immunity patterns are spatially and demographically heterogeneous, and are challenging to capture in country-level forecast models. Methods: We used a spatiotemporal regression model to forecast subnational case and death counts and applied it to three EU countries as test cases: France, Czechia, and Italy. Cases in local regions arise from importations or local transmission. Our model produces age-stratified forecasts given age-stratified data, and links reported case counts to routinely collected covariates (test number, vaccine coverage..). We assessed the predictive performance of our model up to four weeks ahead using proper scoring rules and compared it to the European COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble model. Using simulations, we evaluated the impact of variations in transmission on the forecasts. We developed an open-source RShiny App to visualise the forecasts and scenarios. Results: At a national level, the median relative difference between our median weekly case forecasts and the data up to four weeks ahead was 25% (IQR: 12-50%) over the prediction period. The accuracy decreased as the forecast horizon increased (on average 24% increase in the median ranked probability score per added week), while the accuracy of death forecasts remained stable. Beyond two weeks, the model generated a narrow range of likely transmission dynamics. The median national case forecasts showed similar accuracy to forecasts from the European COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble model, but the prediction interval was narrower in our model. Generating forecasts under alternative transmission scenarios was therefore key to capturing the range of possible short-term transmission dynamics. Discussion: Our model captures changes in local COVID-19 outbreak dynamics, and enables quantification of short-term transmission risk at a subnational level. The outputs of the model improve our ability to identify areas where outbreaks are most likely, and are available to a wide range of public health professionals through the Shiny App we developed.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.11.23293400v1" target="_blank">Predicting subnational incidence of COVID-19 cases and deaths in EU countries</a>
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<li><strong>Improving estimates of epidemiological quantities by combining reported cases with wastewater data: a statistical framework with applications to COVID-19 in Aotearoa New Zealand</strong> -
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Background: Timely and informed public health responses to infectious diseases such as COVID-19 necessitate reliable information about infection dynamics. The case ascertainment rate (CAR), the proportion of infections that are reported as cases, is typically much less than one and varies with testing practices and behaviours, making reported cases unreliable as the sole source of data. The concentration of viral RNA in wastewater samples provides an alternate measure of infection prevalence that is not affected by human behaviours. Here, we investigated how these two data sources can be combined to inform estimates of the instantaneous reproduction number, R, and track changes in the CAR over time. Methods: We constructed a state-space model that we solved using sequential Monte Carlo methods. The observed data are the levels of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and reported case incidence. The hidden states that we estimate are R and CAR. Model parameters are estimated using the particle marginal Metropolis Hastings algorithm. Findings: We analysed data from 1 January 2022 to 31 March 2023 from Aotearoa New Zealand. Our model estimates that R peaked at 2.76 (95% CrI 2.20, 3.83) around 18 February 2022 and the CAR peaked around 12 March 2022. Accounting for reduced CAR, we estimate that New Zealand9s second Omicron wave in July 2022 was similar in size to the first, despite fewer reported cases. We estimate that the CAR in the BA.5 Omicron wave in July 2022 was approximately 50% lower than in the BA.1/BA.2 Omicron wave in March 2022. The CAR in subsequent waves around November 2022 and April 2023 was estimated to be comparable to that in the second Omicron wave. Interpretation: This work on wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) can be used to give insight into key epidemiological quantities. Estimating R, CAR, and cumulative number of infections provides useful information for planning public health responses and understanding the state of immunity in the population. This model is a useful disease surveillance tool, improving situational awareness of infectious disease dynamics in real-time, which may be increasingly useful as intensive pandemic surveillance programmes are wound down.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.14.23294060v1" target="_blank">Improving estimates of epidemiological quantities by combining reported cases with wastewater data: a statistical framework with applications to COVID-19 in Aotearoa New Zealand</a>
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<li><strong>Reproduction Number EXCEL Model of COVID-19 for predictive calculation of nearby trend up to the end of infection</strong> -
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Reproduction Number (RN-)EXCEL Model has been developed on an EXCEL sheet to provide important characteristics of COVID-19 infectious disease for practical use. The model is developed based only on observed data to predict future infection toward herd immunity threshold and until the end stage of the infection. Basic equations are simple and constructed in analogy with neutron multiplication reactions in nuclear reactor. To know the next day infection, we calculate an exponential increase in one day step with a rate obtained from nearby PCR positive infectious numbers, which are daily input in the EXCEL sheet. In a closed community, main players are non-immune holders and immune holders, where total number of immune holders derived from infection and vaccination plays an essential role. In traditional SIR model, infection behavior is characterized by the reproduction rate in differential equation where social actions such as governmental regulations or vaccinations are included as constant breaking term for infection spread. However, in actual situation these terms are time dependent and is difficult to solve by a set of differential equations. In contrast, RN-EXCEL model deals with infection by defining successive reproduction number for each time interval as inchworm that represents a clear physical picture of the virus infectivity. Using this model, a lot of predictions were made for semi-closed communities domestically and world-wide, timely for practical use.
</p>
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<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.11.23293983v1" target="_blank">Reproduction Number EXCEL Model of COVID-19 for predictive calculation of nearby trend up to the end of infection</a>
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<li><strong>Association of polypharmacy and burden of comorbidities on COVID-19 adverse outcomes in people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes</strong> -
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Aim: To investigate whether polypharmacy and comorbidities conveyed more risk of adverse health outcomes following COVID-19 infection in people with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) or type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Materials and methods: The Greater Manchester Care Record (GMCR) is an integrated database of electronic health records containing data collected from 433 general practices in Greater Manchester. Baseline demographic information (age, BMI, gender, ethnicity, smoking status, deprivation index), hospital admission or death within 28 days of infection were extracted for adults (18+) diagnosed with either T1DM or T2DM. Results: For T2DM, 16 to 20 medications (p=0.01; OR [95% CI]=2.37 [1.31 to 4.32]) and &gt; 20 medications (p=0; OR [95% CI]=3.14 [1.75 to 5.62]) were associated with increased risk of death following COVID-19 infection. Increased risk of hospital admissions in T2DM individuals was determined for 11 to 15 medications (p=0.01; OR [95% CI]=1.34 [1.06 to 1.69]) and above. This was independent of comorbidities, metabolic and demographic factors. For T1DM there was no association of polypharmacy with hospital admission. Respiratory, cardiovascular/cerebrovascular and gastrointestinal conditions were associated with increased risk of hospital admissions and deaths in T2DM (p&gt;0.001). Conclusion: We have shown in T2DM an independent association of number of medications taken from 11 upwards with adverse health consequences following COVID-19 infection. We also found that individuals with diabetes develop comorbidities that were common across both T1DM and T2DM. This study has laid the foundation for future investigations into the way that complex pharmacological interactions may influence clinical outcomes in people with T2DM.
</p>
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<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.12.23294016v1" target="_blank">Association of polypharmacy and burden of comorbidities on COVID-19 adverse outcomes in people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes</a>
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<li><strong>Potent induction of humoral and cellular immunity after bivalent BA.4/5 mRNA vaccination in dialysis patients with and without history of SARS-CoV-2 infection</strong> -
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Knowledge on immunogenicity of the bivalent Omicron BA.4/5 vaccine in dialysis patients and the effect of a previous infection is limited. Therefore, vaccine-induced humoral and cellular immunity was analyzed in dialysis patients and immunocompetent controls with and without prior infection. In an observational study, 33 dialysis patients and 58 controls matched for age, sex and prior infection status were recruited. Specific IgG, neutralizing antibody activity and cellular immunity towards the spike-antigen from parental SARS-CoV-2 and Omicron subvariants BA.1, BA.2 and BA.4/5 were analyzed before and 13-18 days after vaccination. The bivalent vaccine led to a significant induction of IgG, neutralizing titers, and specific CD4 and CD8 T-cell levels. Neutralizing activity towards the parental strain was highest, whereas specific T-cell levels towards parental spike and Omicron subvariants did not differ indicating substantial cross-reactivity. Dialysis patients with prior infection had significantly higher spike-specific CD4 T-cell levels with lower CTLA-4 expression compared to infection-naive patients. When compared to controls, no differences were observed between individuals without prior infection. Among infected individuals, CD4 T-cell levels were higher in dialysis patients and neutralizing antibodies were higher in controls. Vaccination was overall well tolerated in both dialysis patients and controls with significantly less adverse events among dialysis patients. In conclusion, our study did not provide any evidence for impaired immunogenicity of the bivalent Omicron BA.4/5 vaccine in dialysis patients. Unlike in controls, previous infection of patients was even associated with higher levels of spike-specific CD4 T cells, which may reflect prolonged encounter with antigen during infection.
</p>
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<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.13.23294045v1" target="_blank">Potent induction of humoral and cellular immunity after bivalent BA.4/5 mRNA vaccination in dialysis patients with and without history of SARS-CoV-2 infection</a>
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<li><strong>The CAPP 2 Study Protocol: Strengthening the capacity of healthcare providers to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on African, Caribbean, and Black communities in Ontario.</strong> -
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Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic emerged as an unprecedented challenge for healthcare systems across the world disproportionately impacting immigrant and racialized populations. Canadian African, Caribbean, and Black (ACB) communities representing some of the most vulnerable populations in terms of their susceptibility to health risks, receipt of adequate care, and chances of recovery. The COVID-19 ACB Providers Project (CAPP 2) aims to strengthen the ability of health care providers (HCP) to address this community9s COVID-19 related healthcare needs. Informed by CAPP 1.0 Project, a mixed-method study which examined COVID-19 pandemic impact on ACB communities in Ontario (Ottawa and Toronto), this second study seeks to develop and implement educational programs on five key areas (modules) to strengthen the capacity of HCPs working with ACB populations. The five modules (topics) include: 1) COVID-19 and its impacts on health, 2) social determinants of health and health inequities, 3) critical health literacy, 4) critical racial literacy, and 5) cultural competence and safety. Methods and analysis: An implementation science approach will guide the development, implementation, and evaluation of the evidence-informed interventions. Intersectionality lens, socio-ecological model (SEM) and community-based participatory research (CBPR) frameworks will inform the research process. To ensure active stakeholder engagement, there will be a Project Advisory Committee comprised of 16 ACB community members, health providers, and partner agency representatives. Five modules will be developed: two virtual simulation games in collaboration with leading simulation experts, and three non-simulation modules. Ethics and dissemination: Ethics approval was granted by the University of Ottawa Research Ethics Board on July 18th, 2023 (H - 01- 23 - 8069). The results of this study will be disseminated in community workshops, an online learning platform, at academic conferences and in peer-reviewed publications.
</p>
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<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.11.23293990v1" target="_blank">The CAPP 2 Study Protocol: Strengthening the capacity of healthcare providers to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on African, Caribbean, and Black communities in Ontario.</a>
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<li><strong>A Mixed-Effects Model to Predict COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Wastewater Surveillance</strong> -
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The potential utility of wastewater-based epidemiology as an early warning tool has been explored widely across the globe during the COVID-19 pandemic. Early in the pandemic, methods were developed to detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater. Since then, extensive research has been conducted to study the relationship between viral concentration in wastewater and COVID-19 cases in catchment areas of sewage treatment plants over time. However, few reports, to date, have attempted to develop predictive models for hospitalizations using SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater. This study uses wastewater data to forecast hospitalizations using a linear mixed-effects model that allows for repeated measures and fixed and random effects. We use wastewater data from various treatment plants in California to predict hospitalizations at the county level assuming data from March 14, 2022, to May 21, 2023. The results suggest that wastewater data can serve as a dependable substitute for clinical data in creating robust models to predict hospitalizations. This approach can enhance our understanding of community-level transmission and its impact on hospital capacity.
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<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.14.23293945v1" target="_blank">A Mixed-Effects Model to Predict COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Wastewater Surveillance</a>
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<li><strong>Digital Mental Health Service engagement changes during Covid-19 in children and young people across the UK: presenting concerns, service activity, and access by gender, ethnicity, and deprivation</strong> -
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The adoption of digital health technologies accelerated during Covid-19, with concerns over the equity of access due to digital exclusion. Using data from a text-based online mental health service for children and young people we explore the impact of the pandemic on service access and presenting concerns and whether differences were observed by sociodemographic characteristics in terms of access (gender, ethnicity and deprivation). We used interrupted time-series models to assess whether there was a change in the level and rate of service use during the Covid-19 pandemic (April 2020-April 2021) compared to pre-pandemic trends (June 2019-March 2020).  Routinely collected data from 61221 service users were extracted for observation, those represented half of the service population as only those with consent to share their data were used. The majority of users identified as female (74%) and White (80%), with an age range between 13 and 20 years of age,. There was evidence of a sudden increase (13%) in service access at the start of the pandemic (RR 1.13 95% CI 1.02, 1.25), followed by a reduced rate (from 25% to 21%) of engagement during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic trends (RR 0.97 95% CI 0.95,0.98). There was a sudden increase in almost all presenting issues apart from physical complaints. There was evidence of a step increase in the number of contacts for Black/African/Caribbean/Black British (38% increase; 95% CI: 1%-90%)  and White ethnic groups (14% increase; 95% CI: 2%-27%) ), sudden increase in service use at the start of the pandemic for the most (58% increase; 95% CI: 1%-247%) and least (47% increase; 95% CI: 6%-204%) deprived areas. During the pandemic, contact rates decreased, and referral sources change at the start. Findings on access and service activity align with other studies observing reduced service utilization. The lack of differences in deprivation levels and ethnicity at lockdown suggests exploring equity of access to the anonymous service. The study provides unique insights into changes in digital mental health use during Covid-19 in the UK.
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🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.11.23293977v1" target="_blank">Digital Mental Health Service engagement changes during Covid-19 in children and young people across the UK: presenting concerns, service activity, and access by gender, ethnicity, and deprivation</a>
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<li><strong>Stellate Ganglion Block to Treat Long COVID-19 Syndrome, A 41 Patient Retrospective Cohort Study</strong> -
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Post Covid-19 condition (PCC), long COVID-19 syndrome and post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC) all refer to a constellation of symptoms that are unresolved long after the acute phase of the viral infection. The severity of symptoms varies from mild and tolerable to severe and debilitating 1, 2. Due to the evolving nature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, treatment protocols for the acute illness are also in a constant state of evolution. Due to the infancy of long COVID-19 syndrome, there is a lack of evidence-based treatment protocols to treat or at the very least attenuate the symptoms of long COVID-19. Current treatment regimens include homeopathic medicine, system focused treatments by specialists, infusion therapies, hyperbaric oxygenation, and polypharmacy. Most of these treatments have partial efficacy at best and place a substantial financial burden on the patients. The physiological, psychological, and societal impact of long COVID-19 cannot be approached casually and must govern the intensity with which the healthcare community approaches treatment of long COVID-19 syndrome. In this 41-patient cohort study from a chronic pain management practice in Colorado, the use of either unilateral or bilateral stellate ganglion block (SGB) was explored to manage symptoms associated with long COVID-19 syndrome. Results indicated that a substantial proportion of patients (86%) experienced a significant reduction of their symptoms following SGB treatment, while 61% achieved a reduction in all their symptoms.
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<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.10.23290338v1" target="_blank">Stellate Ganglion Block to Treat Long COVID-19 Syndrome, A 41 Patient Retrospective Cohort Study</a>
</div></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-clinical-trials">From Clinical Trials</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of an (Omicron Subvariant) COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Dose in Previously Vaccinated Participants and Unvaccinated Participants.</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Biological: XBB.1.5 Vaccine (Booster);   Biological: XBB.1.5 Vaccine (single dose)<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Novavax<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>EFFECT OF COGNITIVE BEHAVIORAL THERAPY ON DEPRESSION AND QUALITY OF LIFE IN PATIENTS WITH POST COVID-19</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   Post-COVID-19 Syndrome<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Behavioral: rehacom<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Cairo University<br/><b>Enrolling by invitation</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Intradermal Administration of a COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine in Elderly</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>:   Vaccination; Infection;   COVID-19<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Biological: Comirnaty<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Radboud University Medical Center<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Immunogenicity and Safety of AdCLD-CoV19-1 OMI as a Booster: A SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Preventive Vaccine in Healthy Volunteers</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>:   COVID-19;   Vaccines<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Biological: AdCLD-CoV19-1 OMI;   Biological: Comirnaty Bivalent 0.1mg/mL (tozinameran and riltozinameran)<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Cellid Co., Ltd.<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Using Text Messages to Boost COVID-19 Vaccine Booking Rate</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>:   Vaccination Hesitancy;   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Behavioral: Behavioural science-informed text messages;   Behavioral: Control<br/><b>Sponsors</b>:   The Behavioural Insights Team;   Public Health England;   Department of Health and Social Care;   NHS England and NHS Improvement<br/><b>Completed</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ivermectin to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Hospitalisation in Subjects Over 50</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>:   COVID-19;   SARS-CoV-2<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Drug: Ivermectin;   Drug: Placebo<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Insud Pharma<br/><b>Terminated</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Methylprednisolone in Patients With Cognitive Deficits in Post-COVID-19 Syndrome (PCS)</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   Post-COVID-19 Syndrome<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Drug: Methylprednisolone<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Charite University, Berlin, Germany<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Hyperbaric on Pulmonary Functions in Post Covid -19 Patients.</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   Post COVID-19 Patients<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Device: hyperbaric oxygen therapy;   Device: breathing exercise;   Drug: medical treatment<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Cairo University<br/><b>Completed</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Dietary Intervention to Mitigate Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>:   Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome;   Fatigue<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Other: Dietary intervention to mitigate Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome;   Other: Attention Control<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   University of Maryland, Baltimore<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Phase II Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of BIMERVAX® When Coadministered With Seasonal Influenza Vaccine (SIIV) in Adults Older Than 65 Years of Age Fully Vaccinated Against COVID-19</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>:   SARS CoV 2 Infection;   Influenza, Human<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Biological: BIMERVAX;   Biological: SIIV<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Hipra Scientific, S.L.U<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Pulmonary Artery Pressure in COVID-19 Survivors</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   Pulmonary Hypertension Secondary<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Diagnostic Test: right heart catheterization (RHC).<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Mansoura University Hospital<br/><b>Enrolling by invitation</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Preliminary Efficacy of a Technology-based Physical Activity Intervention for Older Korean Adults During the COVID-19 Pandemic</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>:   Cardiovascular Health;   Physical Function<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Behavioral: Golden Circle<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign<br/><b>Completed</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Supported Employment COVID-19 Rapid Testing for PWID</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   Health Behavior<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Behavioral: Supported Employment<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   University of Oregon<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Study of Tixagevimab/Cilgavimab and Regdanvimab Efficacy for Treatment of COVID-19</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   Coronavirus Infections<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Drug: tixagevimab/cilgavimab 150+150 mg;   Drug: tixagevimab/cilgavimab 300+300 mg;   Drug: regdanvimab<br/><b>Sponsors</b>:   City Clinical Hospital No.52 of Moscow Healthcare Department;   Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, Health Ministry of the Russian Federation<br/><b>Active, not recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Playing Games to Learn About Children’s Vaccines Project</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>:   HPV;   COVID-19;   Vaccine-Preventable Diseases<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Behavioral: vaccination games<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Michigan State University<br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-pubmed">From PubMed</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>De novo design of bioactive phenol and chromone derivatives for inhibitors of Spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 in silico</strong> - This work presents the synthesis of 12 phenol and chromone derivatives, prepared by the analogs, and the possibility of conducting an in silico study of its derivatives as a therapeutic alternative to combat the SARS-CoV-2, pathogen responsible for COVID-19 pandemic, using its S-glycoprotein as a macromolecular target. After the initial screening for the ranking of the products, it was chosen which structure presented the best energy bond with the target. As a result, derivative 4 was submitted…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Endothelial FoxM1 reactivates aging-impaired endothelial regeneration for vascular repair and resolution of inflammatory lung injury</strong> - Aging is a major risk factor of high incidence and increased mortality of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Here, we demonstrated that persistent lung injury and high mortality in aged mice after sepsis challenge were attributable to impaired endothelial regeneration and vascular repair. Genetic lineage tracing study showed that endothelial regeneration after sepsis-induced vascular injury was mediated by lung resident endothelial proliferation in young adult mice, whereas this…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Forodesine and Riboprine Exhibit Strong Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Repurposing Potential: <em>In Silico</em> and <em>In Vitro</em> Studies</strong> - Lately, nucleos(t)ide antivirals topped the scene as top options for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Targeting the two broadly conserved SARS-CoV-2 enzymes, RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) and 3’-to-5’ exoribonuclease (ExoN), together using only one shot is a very successful new tactic to stop SARS-CoV-2 multiplication irrespective of the SARS-CoV-2 variant type. Herein, the current…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Anticancer pan-ErbB inhibitors reduce inflammation and tissue injury and exert broad-spectrum antiviral effects</strong> - Targeting host factors exploited by multiple viruses could offer broad-spectrum solutions for pandemic preparedness. Seventeen candidates targeting diverse functions emerged in a screen of 4,413 compounds for SARS-CoV-2 inhibitors. We demonstrated that lapatinib and other approved inhibitors of the ErbB family receptor tyrosine kinases suppress replication of SARS-CoV-2, Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV), and other emerging viruses with a high barrier to resistance. Lapatinib…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Pyronaridine tetraphosphate is an efficacious antiviral and anti-inflammatory active against multiple highly pathogenic coronaviruses</strong> - The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), continues to be one of the largest dangers to human health around the world. The need for effective antiviral and anti-inflammatory treatments is still extremely high as newly emerging variants threaten the efficacy of currently used treatment options. Many compounds are effective at inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro but fail to recapitulate that efficacy in vivo….</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Identification of Promising Sulfonamide Chalcones as Inhibitors of SARS-CoV-2 3CL<sup>pro</sup> through Structure-Based Virtual Screening and Experimental Approaches</strong> - 3CL^(pro) is a viable target for developing antiviral therapies against the coronavirus. With the urgent need to find new possible inhibitors, a structure-based virtual screening approach was developed. This study recognized 75 pharmacologically bioactive compounds from our in-house library of 1052 natural product-based compounds that satisfied drug-likeness criteria and exhibited good bioavailability and membrane permeability. Among these compounds, three promising sulfonamide chalcones were…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>TGF-β1 inhibition of ACE2 mediated by miRNA uncovers novel mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis</strong> - SARS-CoV-2 utilizes receptor binding domain (RBD) of spike glycoprotein to interact with angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). Decreased cell surface density of ACE2 contributes to mortality during COVID-19. Studies published early during the pandemic reported that people with cystic fibrosis (PwCF) treated with the high efficiency CFTR modulators ETI (elexacaftor-tezacaftor-ivacaftor) had higher ACE2 levels and milder COVID-19 symptoms, compared to people without CF. Subsequent studies did…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>WASF3 disrupts mitochondrial respiration and may mediate exercise intolerance in myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome</strong> - Myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) is characterized by various disabling symptoms including exercise intolerance and is diagnosed in the absence of a specific cause, making its clinical management challenging. A better understanding of the molecular mechanism underlying this apparent bioenergetic deficiency state may reveal insights for developing targeted treatment strategies. We report that overexpression of Wiskott-Aldrich Syndrome Protein Family Member 3 (WASF3),…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Endogenous and Therapeutic 25-hydroxycholesterols May Worsen Early SARS-CoV-2 Pathogenesis in Mice</strong> - Oxysterols (i.e., oxidized cholesterol species) have complex roles in biology. 25-hydroxycholesterol (25HC), a product of activity of cholesterol-25-hydroxylase (CH25H) upon cholesterol, has recently been shown to be broadly antiviral, suggesting therapeutic potential against SARS-CoV-2. However, 25HC can also amplify inflammation and be converted by CYP7B1 to 7α,25HC, a lipid with chemoattractant activity via the G protein-coupled receptor, EBI2/GPR183. Here, using in vitro studies and two…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Design of a bifunctional pan-sarbecovirus entry inhibitor targeting the cell receptor and viral fusion protein</strong> - Development of highly effective antivirals that are robust to viral evolution is a practical strategy for combating the continuously evolved severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Inspired by viral multistep entry process, we here focus on developing a bispecific SARS-CoV-2 entry inhibitor, which acts on the cell receptor angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and viral S2 fusion protein. First, we identified a panel of diverse spike (S) receptor-binding domains (RBDs) and…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A novel robust inhibitor of papain-like protease (PLpro) as a COVID-19 drug</strong> - Regarding the significance of SARS-CoV-2, scientists have shown considerable interest in developing effective drugs. Inhibitors for PLpro are the primary strategies for locating suitable COVID-19 drugs. Natural compounds comprise the majority of COVID-19 drugs. Due to limitations on the safety of clinical trials in cases of COVID, computational methods are typically utilized for inhibition studies. Whereas papain is highly similar to PLpro and is entirely safe, the current study aimed to examine…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Growth media affects susceptibility of air-lifted human nasal epithelial cell cultures to SARS-CoV2, but not Influenza A, virus infection</strong> - Primary differentiated human epithelial cell cultures have been widely used by researchers to study viral fitness and virus-host interactions, especially during the COVID19 pandemic. These cultures recapitulate important characteristics of the respiratory epithelium such as diverse cell type composition, polarization, and innate immune responses. However, standardization and validation of these cultures remains an open issue. In this study, two different expansion medias were evaluated and the…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Protegrin-2, a potential inhibitor for targeting SARS-CoV-2 main protease M<sup>pro</sup></strong> - CONCLUSIONS: Our in silico and experimental studies identified Protegrin-2 as a potent inhibitor of M^(pro) that could be pursued further towards drug development against COVID-19 infection.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Real-world effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in the elderly during the Delta and Omicron variants: Systematic review</strong> - CONCLUSION: Because of the natural diminishing effectiveness of the vaccine, the need for booster dose to restore its efficacy is vital. From a research perspective, the use of highly heterogeneous outcome measures inhibits the comparison, contrast, and integration of the results which makes data pooling across different studies problematic. While pharmaceutical intervention like vaccination is important to fight an epidemic, utilizing common outcome measurements or carrying out studies with…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A pan-coronavirus peptide inhibitor prevents SARS-CoV-2 infection in mice by intranasal delivery</strong> - Coronaviruses (CoVs) have brought serious threats to humans, particularly severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which continually evolves into multiple variants. These variants, especially Omicron, reportedly escape therapeutic antibodies and vaccines, indicating an urgent need for new antivirals with pan-SARS-CoV-2 inhibitory activity. We previously reported that a peptide fusion inhibitor, P3, targeting heptad repeated-1 (HR1) of SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein, could…</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-patent-search">From Patent Search</h1>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
<ul>
<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Rudy Giuliani, Mark Meadows, and Trump’s Other Partners in Alleged Crime</strong> - In Georgia, eighteen “crackpot lawyers,” former Trump campaign officials, and local Republicans have been indicted for conspiring with the former President to overturn the 2020 election. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/rudy-giuliani-mark-meadows-and-trumps-other-partners-in-alleged-crime">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Close Listen to “Rich Men North of Richmond”</strong> - The viral country song by Oliver Anthony has been embraced by right-wing pundits. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/a-close-listen-to-rich-men-north-of-richmond">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Ron DeSantis Slump</strong> - The Florida governor once looked likely to defeat Donald Trump. Where did his campaign go wrong? - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/the-ron-desantis-slump">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Benefits and Drawbacks to Charging Trump Like a Mobster</strong> - Racketeering statutes allow prosecutors to arrange many characters and a broad set of allegations into a single narrative. Making the story cohere can be a challenge. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-benefits-and-drawbacks-to-charging-trump-like-a-mobster">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>There Is Nothing Élitist About the Indictments Against Trump</strong> - The judicial system is doing its work, and the former President has never been a man of the people. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/there-is-nothing-elitist-about-the-indictments-against-trump">link</a></p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
<ul>
<li><strong>How the radical history of plant-based eating illuminates our future</strong> -
<figure>
<img alt="One hand dropping money in another against a backdrop of bowls of fruit." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PwbDIiTynL5PNY19FTgkmstOqGE=/301x0:5018x3538/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72552467/1601396506.0.jpg"/>
<figcaption>
A customer pays after buying fruits and vegetables at a street market in High Wycombe, in the United Kingdom. | Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Alicia Kennedy’s new book explores the tensions and triumphs of leaving meat behind.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LIIlIY">
There has never been a better time to ditch meat. <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/4/22/23036010/eat-less-meat-vegetarian-effects-climate-emissions-animal-welfare-factory-farms">Climate change, health, and animal cruelty</a> are among the many reasons why some leave animals (partially or entirely) off their plates.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="DBgqIh">
Luckily, folks seem to be catching on. Vegetable-forward dishes are taking over <a href="https://ny.eater.com/maps/best-vegan-and-vegetarian-restaurants-nyc">food magazines</a>, <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@bradtheboxer?referer_url=izea.com%2Fresources%2Ftop-vegan-influencers-on-tiktok%2F&amp;refer=embed&amp;embed_source=121355058%2C121351166%2C121331973%2C120811592%2C120810756%3Bnull%3Bembed_masking&amp;referer_video_id=7177564694255996206">TikTok</a>, and the <a href="https://www.veganfoodandliving.com/news/eleven-madison-vegan-new-york-three-michelin-stars/">restaurant scene</a>. Along with some greater cultural acceptance of plant-based diets, there has been a growing recognition that animal-free cuisine can taste great; it doesn’t have to mean compromising on flavor.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FhNhh2">
“There is so much possibility of just feeding people a good dish,” <a href="https://www.aliciakennedy.news/">food writer Alicia Kennedy</a> told me in a recent conversation<em>. </em>“That can be an overlooked strategy of changing people’s minds. A lot of people never even notice if something is vegan or vegetarian until you tell them it is. They never even think about the fact that there’s no meat in it. They just ate it and it was good.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="741a4B">
That said, there’s still a lot of progress left to be made. The share of Americans who call themselves vegetarian or vegan is still <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/food/wp/2018/08/03/you-might-think-there-are-more-vegetarians-than-ever-youd-be-wrong/">very</a> <a href="https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/3747206-vegetarianism-is-on-the-rise-especially-the-part-time-kind/">small</a>. And US meat consumption has only <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/4/22/23036010/eat-less-meat-vegetarian-effects-climate-emissions-animal-welfare-factory-farms">increased</a> over the last few decades. How we think about and make progress, of course, is still richly debated among different groups, from vegans to conscientious omnivores, with distinct perspectives on how to build the future of food.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1B4IeE">
Kennedy’s new book — <a href="https://go.skimresources.com?id=1025X1701643&amp;xs=1&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fbookshop.org%2Fp%2Fbooks%2Fno-meat-required-the-cultural-history-and-culinary-future-of-plant-based-eating-alicia-kennedy%2F19177990"><em>No Meat Required: The Cultural History and Culinary Future of Plant-Based Eating</em></a><em> </em>— gives a historical overview of the diverse movements that have decided to leave meat off the plate, and critiques our industrialized food system.
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Ea1zXH9dorV8w6LKx7JTlm6ckv0=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24854502/9780807069172.jpg"/> <cite>Beacon Press</cite>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TNe5DK">
From the counterculture of the 1960s and ’70s and seminal books like Frances Moore Lappé’s <em>Diet for a Small Planet</em>, to the ecofeminists who recognized the connections between the oppression of women and the oppression of animals, to the ’90s zine-toting punks who became influential vegan chefs, Kennedy weaves a fascinating look into how the meat-free movement’s history informs its future.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="APCwM6">
She also argues that the present-day plant-based movement has become all too sanitized of these stories in favor of an industrialized approach to plant-based meats that can reach a lot of people — but at the risk of reproducing the same mistakes as Big Meat, such as consolidating power and complicating preexisting social justice labor issues.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gtr85T">
“There had been so many people approaching a plant-based diet from the perspective of challenging norms and oppressive systems,” Kennedy said. “Now it’s like, ‘Oh, we can just kind of keep all the same stuff. We’ll just make it plant-based.’ It’s interesting to watch the same problems in a different font, so to speak.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rpIBr0">
According to Kennedy, a just food system would make local food abundant and accessible. For a future of meatless eating to get there will take work, collaboration, and transparency. But hopefully, Kennedy says, it’s a future that will make food taste better — and in easy reach — for more people.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="cFITYu">
I spoke with Kennedy about how the “meatless plurality” can come together, and the importance of knowing the radical histories of plant-forward eating. A lightly edited transcript follows.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6IB43h">
<strong>Why has it been so hard to make a dent in US meat consumption, despite plant-based diets’ presence here?</strong>
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0n1w1O">
There’s been this terrible reputation that vegans and vegetarians only care about ethics and don’t care about food. And when we’re talking about something that we relate to chiefly regarding diet, food takes up a central part. You have to make appealing food to make people find the whole idea of giving up meat appealing.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="DtzYvR">
So historically, yes, there has been a focus on blander foods; food in general in the US has gotten a bit better and more nuanced. We realized there are lots of techniques that people have used for meat that we can apply to vegetables to get better flavor from them.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gCy8W6">
Most people are less attached to eating meat all the time than we might think they are. They want to eat good food that’s plant-based. They want to know how to cook plant-based food in a way that is as satisfying as eating meat.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ML32x1">
Also, we’ve done a bit of a disservice to the narrative around plant-based food by focusing so much on alternative meats. Getting away from the false notion that plant-based is a category of product versus plant-based as an approach to every type of food that exists. It is a huge part of making people cut back on meat in a way that’s so necessary.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oCyklz">
<strong>In your book, you talk about the plurality of motivations for being vegetarian or vegan, from the spiritual to political. That there’s everything from Indigenous, anticapitalist veganism to a consumerist and normative plant-based approach that, although it leaves meat off the table, doesn’t change our reliance on mass production and capitalism. Can you explain why the distinction is important? </strong>
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="v0W463">
It’s really important to think of how much these other folks were really focused on changing society and really changing people’s attachments to various systems and structures. With Frances Moore Lappé, it was, “Let’s eat differently and stop world hunger.” With the eco-feminists, it was, “Let’s stop having this patriarchal relationship to animals and the land.” With the punk anarchists’ perspective, it was, “Let’s reject corporate food culture and build something new.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="akaf5n">
When we’re talking about this newer moment — where it’s this plant-based food product with a capitalist growth model — we’re mapping the same [unjust] structures onto a plant-based approach. We’re not going to see people question why we’ve let factory farming happen for so long. It’s not going to lead to questions of scale of consumption of one type of food being problematic. It’s not going to lead to questions about what is the best way to build and strengthen regional food systems within the United States. It’s just going to lead to this kind of one-for-one replacement.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="t3c5p7">
<strong>You’re critical of agricultural intensification in the book, writing that “the idea of the ‘plant-based diet’ — whether vegan, vegetarian, or flexible — needs to be reinvigorated and understood as a political stance that rejects efficient but profit-driven industrialized agriculture as much as it abhors the slaughter of confined animals.” This is a pretty significant division among people who work on the future of food. </strong>
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="tRfwBb">
<strong>Could you explain what’s meant by the concept of industrialized agriculture and what it would mean to reject it? Is there a way to incorporate different types of solutions to the many different problems in the global food system, like world hunger, carbon emissions, and land use?</strong>
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fjFwl7">
I’m talking about <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/11/22/23471771/cory-booker-meat-farming-industrial-agriculture-accountability-act">corporate agribusiness</a> that has this stranglehold on the food and the land. In the US, we are very supermarket-minded. When we think about food, there’s been a very strong and pervasive desire to keep the origins of food and the people who have a role in that opaque — whether we’re talking about the <a href="https://caroljadams.com/the-absent-referent">absent referent</a> of the animal being slaughtered or we’re talking about farmworkers dying of heat exhaustion in the fields. When I am talking about rejecting industrialized agriculture, I mean rejecting that opacity and that distance — the idea that our food comes from nowhere, and no one has been harmed in that.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9xeYfd">
A massive part of the American food project is to keep people from believing that they should know where their food comes from, or that if you care where your food comes from, that’s kind of an elite affectation. If we’re talking about someone like Alice Waters, their approach to food is seen as elitist because it’s very focused on farm-to-table and seasonality.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4F8Sfk">
But when we’re talking about strengthening regional food systems away from overly efficiency-driven, scale-driven, growth-driven profit motives, then we’re talking about: What is the best thing for this ecosystem? How do we protect the workers’ rights who are part of this system? How do we make locally grown seasonal food both abundant and accessible to folks? Part of a plant-based ethos is to get away from the corporate control and lack of transparency when it comes to the food system.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vyK9FT">
<strong>You argue it is not enough to just leave meat off the plate, but that ingredients should support local food systems. Can you go into why this is an important element of food justice?</strong>
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bgejY4">
I live in Puerto Rico, so I have a different perspective on what it means to support local [food systems] and why that’s a significant thing to do. It’s really easy when you’re in bigger cities to detach what that means from what that looks like. At this point, so many folks are experiencing the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/10/10/23391700/puerto-rico-hurricane-recovery-colonialism-debt">effects of climate change in terms of disaster</a>. Here, it’s so important to support the local economy because 85 percent of food in the supermarkets is imported. If we don’t support local farmers, especially those practicing <a href="https://www.fao.org/agroecology/home/en/">agroecology</a> — which is much more resilient to disaster, storms, and heat — we would starve if a disaster strikes.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="IGkpwG">
<a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/27/16373484/jones-act-puerto-rico">We’re paying an exorbitant amount for food</a> here because the US dictates that all food is imported on US-owned and -staffed ships that have to make stops in the States before they come here.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nmKH1k">
For me, this experience is inextricable from my belief that making local and regional food systems more robust means that those spaces have more in place to withstand disaster when it comes. It’s difficult to relate the significance of the local food economy to folks who take it for granted across a lot of the US. It’s understood as this nice, frivolous thing to go to the farmers market with your tote bag. But for me, it’s very much about whether the farm is small and is using only a few industrial inputs.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7RgHDv">
If we’re reliant on centralized production of any one thing, then we’re susceptible to that thing either being taken out by disease or being taken out by political or economic circumstance. And that leaves us very vulnerable as citizens.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6xDrOo">
<strong>Here at </strong><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect"><strong>Future Perfect</strong></a><strong>, we’ve written a lot about </strong><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-of-meat"><strong>possible solutions like cell-cultivated meat</strong></a><strong>. In your book, you’re open about your skepticism around such technological initiatives. What are some of the biggest drawbacks for you? What are some of the avenues of improvement?</strong>
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="xTfzwf">
I am skeptical because of the ownership of the technology and the opacity of it. If these companies who produce these products are going to be transparent, I would be a lot more comfortable. I would also be more comfortable if these things were only talked about as a piece of a vision. It mimics a narrative around meat where it’s, “We eat too much meat, so let’s just switch it out and eat too much lab meat.” I don’t like the narrative around it, especially in mainstream food media that’s not digging deep into these ideas. It’s just like, “Oh, we’re gonna be fine in the future. Don’t worry about it. Because you’re gonna swap out your steak for a lab steak.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="88dJdL">
We are talking about this like it’s the one thing that’s going to solve the problem. We can use this as one tool in a toolbox and focus on other things, like strengthening the regional food systems or focusing on agroecology. I think we have to focus on strengthening so much else before we focus on pouring resources into developing or scaling up things we don’t know as much about. We don’t know people’s potential reactions to them — whether palate-wise or nutritionally — and we don’t know about energy usage and efficiency.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="h3VXT6">
The notion that it is such a grand solution, the only solution, is really troubling. If it’s just part of an approach, that’s a perfectly fine way of looking at it.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="U9I9Yy">
<strong>How can we encourage more collaboration and good-faith discussion among the many, many plant-based groups? </strong>
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bRuNfw">
Yeah, that’s a tough one. It’s so important for me to talk to other folks even when I don’t agree with their approach. I do find that there is a lot of anger and resentment, and factionalism that really does a disservice to moving the conversation forward. I should be in conversation with the animal rights-motivated ethical vegan, even if we’re going to be at each other’s throats. It doesn’t do a service to the perception of the whole plant-based sphere; it’s really important that we get to a place where we can say, “These are our terms. These are things that we really want, and we can really go for them.” And obviously the end of industrial animal agriculture is the one thing we can all agree on.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="NMBSDS">
<em>You can pick up </em><a href="https://go.skimresources.com?id=1025X1701643&amp;xs=1&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fbookshop.org%2Fp%2Fbooks%2Fno-meat-required-the-cultural-history-and-culinary-future-of-plant-based-eating-alicia-kennedy%2F19177990">No Meat Required</a><em> in bookstores, libraries, and online booksellers.</em>
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GwYAAD">
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9fnvdL">
</p></li>
<li><strong>We’re bad at predicting the future and there’s no way around it</strong> -
<figure>
<img alt="Jänschwalde lignite-fired power plant" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IfJmeXftRzTAxvMODm6J3LsqebA=/239x0:4055x2862/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72552354/1241853909.0.jpg"/>
<figcaption>
Photo by Patrick Pleul/picture alliance via Getty Images
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Technology improves over time, but it’s hard to know what that means when it comes to calculating the social cost of carbon.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iGbbed">
How good at genetically engineering improved crops will we be in the year 2300? How expensive will air conditioning be? How many people will live on the planet?
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XyXFaT">
These are fairly impossible questions to answer, of course. Technology improves over time, but the track record of <a href="https://www.cold-takes.com/the-track-record-of-futurists-seems-fine/">forecasting specific improvements</a> is distinctly mediocre. Forecasts about social science <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01517-1">also don’t fare amazingly well</a>. We’re best at concrete predictions about the moderately distant future if they’re about very precise, measurable scientific phenomena — the rate of global <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate">climate change</a> as a result of CO2 emissions, say, or the effects on the ozone layer of dangerous chemicals.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BsAbis">
But we’re not very good at it at all when it comes to predicting the pace of innovation, or predicting things that depend on human choices and human priorities. Many crucial predictions that drove policy in the 1960s and 1970s — from concerns about <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/7/12/23791559/resource-scarity-peak-oil-fracking">peak oil</a> to estimates about <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/8/20/20802413/overpopulation-demographic-transition-population-explained">population explosions</a> — turned out to be pretty much entirely incorrect.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jdchpQ">
This is an unfortunate state of affairs because big societal questions — like the social cost of CO2 emissions — depend on our ability to reason clearly about the moderately distant future. Scientists approach this in a methodical, careful way that’s still far from satisfying, but there’s no real alternative to trying.
</p>
<h3 id="ZK4nzP">
The long-term future really matters, and it’s really hard to predict
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Naxls5">
The difficulty of answering questions about distant future technological and social trends is a huge — and, I think, underrated — challenge when we try to answer far more mundane policy questions, like, say, what the social cost of carbon is.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yQ1jjX">
The <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23449849/social-cost-carbon-value-statistical-life-epa">social cost of carbon</a> is a measure of how much harm is done in the world when an additional ton of CO2 is released into the atmosphere. That’s a combination of predicting how the additional ton of CO2 will affect the climate over the next several hundred years — which is fairly well understood thanks to a sophisticated science of climate modeling — and predicting how those climate changes will affect human well-being over the next several hundred years, which is much harder.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LruOmA">
In the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2022-11/epa_scghg_report_draft_0.pdf">most recent report by the EPA on the social cost of carbon</a>, researchers considered global population trends and global <em>income</em> trends out through 2300 (which matters because wealthier countries can adapt more to climate change and also are more able to pay to avoid the deaths of their citizens). Other recent work estimates not only income and population, but also <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05224-9">crop yields and mortality</a> out through 2300.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="us6UgS">
I want to be clear: Those papers that I’ve linked above strike me as excellent, high-quality work. They look squarely at the core challenge of extraordinary uncertainty about the world’s future, and they handle it using the right statistical tools for the job. It’s normal for papers to report a very wide range of possible values. For example, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05224-9">this 2022 <em>Nature</em> paper</a> assumes annualized per capita GDP growth will average 0.17 percent to 2.7 percent between 2020 and 2300 and that a ton of CO2’s economic effects on agriculture will be anywhere between −$23 and $263. (A negative value here means that maybe it’ll have a <em>good </em>effect on agriculture.) They’re able to do useful work even with these large ranges of possibilities.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ZFPBwF">
But are these ranges large <em>enough? </em>2300 is as distant from us as the year 1746.<strong> </strong>Even the most reasonable of statistical techniques would unambiguously collapse if you were trying to use them in 1746 to predict the world we’d live in in 2023. I observed above that even our predictions about population trends from the 1960s weren’t very good. How sure should we really be that global population trends <em>now </em>have finally cracked the puzzle?
</p>
<h3 id="vyZ6ba">
There’s no way around trying to predict the future
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Og2cyu">
In a recent, quite good <a href="https://daviddfriedman.substack.com/p/critique-of-comprehensive-evidence">criticism of the <em>Nature</em> climate modeling paper by Kevin Rennert et al,</a> economist David Friedman argues that these models end up implicitly imagining a world without most forms of technological progress simply because they’d be impossible to model.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="8gVSwy">
“Rennert sums costs over the next three centuries, with about two-thirds of the total coming after 2100,” he writes. “Their solution to the problem of predicting technological change over that period is, with the exception of their estimates of CO2 production and energy costs, to ignore it, implicitly assume technological stasis. That is the wrong solution — but any projection of technological change that far into the future would be science fiction not science.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mLYQhB">
In other words, the staggering uncertainty associated with the year 2300 is a reason models of the social costs of carbon should be more narrow in scope: They should primarily try to answer questions about the effects of climate on human lives in the next few decades and should anticipate that our uncertainty about the future makes their job nearly impossible by 2100, let alone 2300.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lA12Ef">
I’m sympathetic to this worry. When I think about the best guesses that people in the year 1746 could have made about the year 2023, it’s hard to imagine them coming up with anything they could usefully have acted on. And similarly, it feels hard to have much confidence in our modeling of the year 2300 and tempting to apply some kind of discounting factor for uncertainty that would end up making the contributions of the year 2300 to our social cost of carbon estimates quite small.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rYEfFf">
There’s no way around the core problem here. We have the power, as a civilization, to change the world that we live in in lasting and potentially irreversible ways; the decisions we make quite likely<em> will </em>affect our distant descendants. Guessing what crop yields will be in 2300 might be nigh impossible, and calculations about the social costs of carbon which depend on those guesses about crop yields are going to have extraordinarily high uncertainty.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Aeszvz">
But declaring that we won’t make those guesses doesn’t mean we don’t affect the world in the distant future, just that we’ve stopped trying to guess <em>how. </em>I tend to think it’s better to have inadequate guesses than no guesses, better to have large ranges of possibility than to treat a question as unknowable and therefore calculate as if its value is zero. But it’s important to proceed with an aching sense of the inadequacy of those guesses.
</p></li>
<li><strong>The Trump indictments reveal a paradox at the heart of American democracy</strong> -
<figure>
<img alt="Three people stand in a parking lot waving large red and blue flags. One flag reads: “Donald Trump. Keep America Safe.”" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bc3xOM5JOiEeNKZFrI5HRxUafKg=/334x0:5667x4000/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72552319/1478913218.0.jpg"/>
<figcaption>
Trump supporters near Mar-a-Lago on April 1, 2023. | Alex Wong/Getty Images
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The Trump cases help us understand how America’s democracy can be both strong and weak at the same time.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5lBXXp">
After <a href="https://www.vox.com/trump-investigations/2023/8/14/23808315/trump-charges-georgia-rico-racketeering-2020-election-fulton-county">Monday’s late-night filing in Georgia</a>, we have finally seen them all: <a href="https://www.vox.com/trump-investigations/23832341/trump-charges-prison-time-sentence-indictments">Every single known criminal investigation into Donald Trump</a> has produced an indictment.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="u2ehG8">
The former president is now facing four trials on 91 separate counts whose maximum sentences, put together, amount to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/02/trump-prison-sentence-risk-00109544">hundreds of years of prison time</a> (though it’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/trump-investigations/23832341/trump-charges-prison-time-sentence-indictments">unlikely</a> Trump would receive the harshest possible sentence in each case). The cases’ verdicts will not “merely” determine Trump’s fate. They could be the closest thing we can get to official pronouncements on some of the most pressing political issues in American politics.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="N0BoqC">
In the two most important cases, the new Georgia indictment and special counsel Jack Smith’s federal January 6 indictment, the key question is whether Trump’s effort to overturn the results of the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020-presidential-election">2020 election</a> constituted a crime against the American people. In the lesser cases, the Mar-a-Lago document retention and New York hush money cases, the core question is whether Trump’s well-documented habits of lying and unethical behavior led him into outright criminal territory.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nZ1cHi">
With such weighty issues on the line, juries will be deciding more than Trump’s guilt or innocence on specific charges. They will be issuing a broader ruling: determining if Trump and Trumpism have, beyond a reasonable doubt, run afoul of America’s democratic system and the rule of law.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gLkozq">
Such a trial is unprecedented in American history, but it is exactly what’s supposed to happen in a democracy when a political leader (allegedly) commits crimes against democracy. (Trump denies he committed any crimes.)
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="K9Yemm">
Democracy is, at the very highest level, a system for turning the idea of human equality into practical political reality. When leaders can get away with whatever they want, there is no real political equality: We are electing kings, not fellow citizens. If powerful actors try to act above the law, independent institutions need to check their misbehavior.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="CcXELb">
Criminal prosecution is the ultimate recourse in such cases, and one not infrequently employed <a href="https://theconversation.com/prosecuting-a-president-is-divisive-and-sometimes-destabilizing-heres-why-many-countries-do-it-anyway-188565">in peer democracies</a>. Of course, the charges should not be frivolous or politically motivated — but the allegations against Trump, with <a href="https://www.vox.com/2023/3/31/23664142/trump-indictment-manhattan-rule-of-law-risks">the arguable exception of the New York case,</a> are neither. The Georgia and federal cases are legally serious and factually well-supported;<strong> </strong>it is a sign of health for America’s institutions that prosecutors are not so cowed by Trump’s political influence that they fear the consequences of challenging him.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jF3dCi">
Yet at the same time, there’s good reason to doubt that the legal system is capable of solving the problem it’s been tasked with handling.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="NlyzJh">
The federal judiciary <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/2023/8/15/23831338/supreme-court-donald-trump-indictments-federal-judiciary-partisan-trust">has been deeply politicized</a>, as has the public’s evaluation of the merits of the various cases against Trump. These developments both reflect a deeper problem: In profoundly polarized societies, like the United States, seemingly neutral political institutions become pulled into and warped by conflict between social groups.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OQgaAU">
It’s unlikely a guilty verdict would settle the question of Trump for good; for Trump’s core supporters, his word beats anyone else’s — a jury’s included. <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-indictments-favorability-primary-polls/">Polling data </a>suggests the cases are not hurting his bid for the GOP’s 2024 nomination; if he’s the nominee, he’s essentially guaranteed a reasonable chance at winning the presidency and gaining access to its expansive powers. In this sense, America appears <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23301390/trump-investigation-mar-a-lago-search-netanyahu">depressingly similar to Israel</a>, where the ongoing corruption trial of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is fueling the gravest democratic crisis in the country’s history.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RIsVG7">
The Trump prosecutions are thus revealing a paradox at the heart of American democracy: its institutions are at once both strong and weak.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="R2rKJ7">
They are strong, in the sense that many act the way they should in an advanced democracy — taking legal steps to defend the system against the novel Trumpian threat. They are weak, in the sense that they lack the universal public legitimacy to fully quash the threat through these legal means — a reflection of the fundamental social divisions that gave rise to Trump in the first place.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BVEEDL">
This paradox could shape not only the political consequences of the four Trump trials, but the long-term prospects for the survival of the world’s oldest democracy.
</p>
<h3 id="LrXimM">
Where American democracy works
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RJtA7D">
In political science, healthy democracies are often referred to as “consolidated democracies.” It’s a typically bloodless academic term, but it refers to an important idea: that democracy becomes truly stable when it is understood as “the only game in town,” meaning that basically all relevant political players accept that free and fair elections should determine who gets to wield power.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qi89cw">
In a completely consolidated democracy, this most fundamental rule of the political game is accepted by all. Challenging it would be as absurd as a football player demanding 20 points after scoring a touchdown.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="KLqjyB">
Trump’s challenge to the 2020 election threw America’s status as a consolidated democracy into question — as did, in a less obvious way, his habit of ignoring laws and political norms whenever he felt like it.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bXARmn">
In <a href="http://adpm.pbworks.com/f/Democratic+Consolidation-Linz+and+Stepan-1996.pdf">a 1996 article</a>, leading political scientists Juan Linz and Alfred Stepan wrote that democracies check such potential threats from elected strongmen through the rule of law — enforced, primarily, through countervailing political institutions that can prevent leaders from going out of control. Achieving full democratic consolidation, they write, means “that the government and the state apparatus would be subject to the law, that areas of discretionary power would be defined and increasingly limited, and that citizens could turn to courts to defend themselves against the state and its officials.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0R1DL8">
Read through this institutional lens, the American system’s response to the Trump threat <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/28/supreme-court-independent-state-legislature-theory-trump-2024/?itid=ap_gregsargent">can be seen as impressively robust</a>.
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Special Counsel Jack Smith, wearing a navy blue suit and tie, holds a leather-bound file. His facial expression is solemn. " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dvuzV-RZsI4gXQFLDPqJ-M6OnFY=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24854869/1570193282.jpg"/> <cite>Drew Angerer/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>
Special Counsel Jack Smith arrives to give remarks on a recently unsealed indictment including four felony counts against former US President Donald Trump on August 1, 2023, in Washington, DC.
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="t2va2K">
In 2020, Trump’s absurd legal arguments against the election results <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2021/01/06/trumps-failed-efforts-overturn-election-numbers/4130307001/">failed over and over again in court</a>, often in front of Republican-appointed judges. His supporters’ effort to overturn the election by force on January 6 didn’t work either. The new <a href="https://www.vox.com/congress">Congress</a> passed <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/state-legislatures-news/details/what-the-electoral-count-reform-act-means-for-states">a bipartisan bill reforming the Electoral Count Act</a>, one explicitly designed to block any future presidential candidate from using the same (dubiously) legal tactics Trump employed to try to overturn the election.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4cNIZK">
In the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23357154/2022-midterm-elections-guide">2022 midterms</a>, election deniers running for governor and secretary of state in swing states <a href="https://catalist.us/whathappened2022/">lost every single time they were on the ballot</a>. Earlier this year, the Republican-controlled <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus">Supreme Court</a> repudiated a key Trumpian legal argument — the so-called <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/2023/6/27/23775378/supreme-court-moore-harper-john-roberts-independent-state-legislature-north-carolina-bush-gore">“independent state legislature” theory</a> — that would have given a green light for state legislatures to rig future elections in Trump’s favor.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kiN37A">
Put together, this looks like a striking display of democratic resilience. Faced with a serious challenge, all sorts of independent power centers inside the American system reacted in exactly the way they should — by using their authority to defend the integrity of the country’s elections.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XMLFAX">
Young and weak democracies are not always capable of such a response. In such countries, institutions are often corrupt or heavily politicized; the people who staff them have little interest in neutral defenses of democratic principle when said principle clashes with their bottom line or political party’s hold on power. In a place like Hungary, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/9/13/17823488/hungary-democracy-authoritarianism-trump">where democracy exists only on paper</a>, the government can do basically whatever it wants. Election rules are <a href="https://cz.boell.org/en/2023/06/19/how-fidesz-maintains-its-electoral-stranglehold-hungary">rigged in the ruling Fidesz party’s favor</a>, and the captive courts are not a serious check on Prime Minister Viktor Orbán or his parliamentary supermajority.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4mYwiN">
The autoimmune response of American democracy, by contrast, reflects a degree of consolidation. Key sectors of the public and the elite do, in fact, see democracy as “the only game in town” — a commitment which led, logically and necessarily, to Trump’s prosecution.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="AFGJC3">
The cases against him are <a href="https://www.vox.com/2023/3/31/23664142/trump-indictment-manhattan-rule-of-law-risks">generally</a> serious and above-board efforts to punish Trump’s attack on the democratic system or (in the Mar-a-Lago documents case) flagrant disregard for legal constraints on his behavior. Prosecutors have presented solid evidence of serious misconduct; it would be <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/trump-indictment-not-politically-motivated-clinton-emails-biden.html">more political <em>not </em>to bring a case against Trump under the circumstances</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kLZeBV">
This does not mean that democracy requires Trump be convicted; that’s for a jury to decide. But it does mean that prosecutors had a duty to investigate Trump’s behavior and, if the facts warranted it, file an indictment. Absent such efforts, the entire endeavor to protect American democracy would suffer from a glaring flaw: an inability to actually enforce laws that seem to proscribe anti-democratic behavior. American democracy would fail Linz and Stepan’s test of whether “the government and the state apparatus would be subject to the law.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zMQHla">
This is why many countries that qualify as “consolidated” under the traditional definition have prosecuted former leaders. Writing in <a href="https://theconversation.com/prosecuting-a-president-is-divisive-and-sometimes-destabilizing-heres-why-many-countries-do-it-anyway-188565">the Conversation</a>, a trio of scholars who have studied such prosecutions argues that “in mature democracies, prosecutions that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/05/10/south-korea-just-showed-the-world-how-to-do-democracy/">hold leaders accountable</a> can solidify the rule of law.” Recent South Korean history is, for them, a good example of this dynamic at work:
</p>
<blockquote>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3TVjTP">
South Korea <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/01/16/south-koreas-president-curbs-the-power-of-prosecutors">investigated and convicted</a> five former presidents starting in the 1990s, a wave of political prosecutions that culminated in the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37971085">2018 [conviction] of President Park Geun-hye</a> and, soon after, the conviction and imprisonment of her predecessor, Lee Myung-bak.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6Z3x5V">
Did these prosecutions deter future leaders from wrongdoing? For what it’s worth, Korea’s two most recent presidents have so far kept out of legal trouble.
</p>
</blockquote>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3lfPGV">
South Korea is a much newer democracy than the United States, <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/07/contested-politics-south-korea/2-south-koreas-democratic-evolution">existing only since 1987</a>. <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-estimates-characteristics.html"></a>As a result, the authoritarian legacy is still visible in Korean politics: Former President Park, the one who was sent to prison in 2018, is the daughter of former military dictator Park Chung-hee.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nAL6Ij">
As a general rule, older democracies tend to have more robust and independent institutions, as they’ve had more time to establish their independence and gain legitimacy among the citizenry. If prosecutions of former leaders can be a sign of democratic consolidation in a country like South Korea, they should be the same in the United States.
</p>
<h3 id="3QvqYW">
Where American democracy is weak
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LLLTsZ">
There’s a problem with the South Korean parallel, however: Its prosecutions seemed to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/06/world/asia/park-geun-hye-south-korea.html">enjoy significant public legitimacy</a>. That’s not the case when it comes to the Trump indictments — a finding that speaks to the weakness of American institutions that sits, paradoxically, alongside their strength.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="AbcCft">
A recent Associated Press poll found that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/16/trump-indictment-poll-georgia-elections/9a9debc8-3c1e-11ee-aefd-40c039a855ba_story.html">a bare majority of Americans,</a> 53 percent, support the Justice Department’s decision to indict Trump for his behavior in the 2020 election. This top line, as you’d imagine, hides profound partisan splits; 85 percent of Democrats approve of the prosecution, while just 16 percent of Republicans do.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="akFIqa">
A <a href="https://newrepublic.com/post/174698/half-republicans-dont-think-trump-took-classified-docs-thats-terrifying">July poll</a> on the other federal case, relating to improper possession and storage of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, is striking in a different way. It found that 50 percent of Republicans did not believe that there were classified documents at Mar-a-Lago at all — a fact that is not actually in question, as there are undeniable photographs of said documents at Trump’s residence in the indictment.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7C8Vte">
An August poll <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/01/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voters-crosstabs.html">from the New York Times</a> found that just 17 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents believe Trump has committed any “serious” federal crimes at all. An additional 10 percent said they believe Trump “did something wrong” but not seriously criminal in his handling of classified documents, arguably the case where Trump’s guilt is (in purely legal terms) the most clear-cut.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2WXPC7">
These findings are not outliers: Over and over again, pollsters find that a majority of Republicans do not believe Trump is guilty of any crimes and suspect the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/poll-trump-holds-double-digit-lead-after-federal-indictment-reutersipsos-2023-06-12/#:~:text=A%20vast%20majority%20of%20Republicans,for%20the%20Republican%20presidential%20nomination.">prosecutions are being brought for essentially political reasons</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iSVzRN">
This reflects not only deep support for Trump in the Republican Party, but <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/07/us/politics/trump-republican-primary-candidate-trust.html#:~:text=There%20is%20an%20unmistakable%20partisan,Supreme%20Court%20and%20the%20police.">widespread distrust in American institutions</a> and acceptance of Trump’s views about the legitimacy of the electoral system. A July poll from Monmouth found that <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/almost-third-americans-still-believe-2020-election-result-was-fraudule-rcna90145">68 percent of Republicans</a> believe Biden won the 2020 election “due to voter fraud,” a figure nearly identical to Monmouth’s findings in the weeks immediately after the election.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="SC2jGJ">
These numbers reflect a certain hollowness in the American institutional response. Despite the strikingly robust effort by elements of the political system to defend itself, the system is incapable of addressing the root of the problem: authentic support for Trump’s authoritarian actions and worldview.
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Trump supporters carry flags that read “Trump or death 2024” and “Trump was right about everything.”" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/CUiM6fkZQAeVBQc3Z9B57BiXO5Y=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24854882/1575003532.jpg"/> <cite>Nathan Howard/Bloomberg via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>
Trump supporters and opponents rally in DC in August, near the federal courthouse where he was being arraigned.
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="UiEhmo">
Go back to the initial definition of “consolidated democracy:” one where democracy is “the only game in town,” so deeply rooted that questioning its rules and basic principles is basically unthinkable among major political actors. So long as Trump retains such a grip on Republican voters, and the Republican Party leadership backs him out of fear of angering those voters, this simply will not be the case in the United States — no matter how hard institutional actors, including some Republicans, work to make it so.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="knk1Es">
Trump’s personality and political movement are fundamentally at odds with democracy’s core principles. In the American system, anyone who leads a major party has a decent shot at the presidency — and thus a decent shot at gaining a degree of power that would allow him to once again flout the rules and institutions designed to hold him accountable.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PAxq21">
A self-pardon on the federal charges seems almost inevitable if Trump wins again, and it’s unlikely he’ll stop there. Trump and his allies are already planning how to use the presidency to undermine the <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-jack-smith-indictment-jan6-justice-department-1234800968/">federal</a> and <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-revenge-plan-alvin-bragg-1234702976/">state</a> prosecutors trying to hold him accountable, reportedly even hatching a scheme to arrest Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="dzRFYF">
Back in 1996, Linz and Stepan argued that a leader who enjoys a degree of public support for such brazen attacks on the rule of law necessarily undermines democratic consolidation.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Aupops">
“A democracy in which a single leader enjoys, or thinks he or she enjoys, a ‘democratic’ legitimacy that allows him or her to ignore, dismiss, or alter other institutions — the legislature, the courts, the constitutional limits of power — does not fit our conception of rule of law in a democratic regime,” they write. “The formal or informal institutionalization of such a system is not likely to result in a consolidated democracy unless such discretion is checked.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4Sl2xt">
There’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/2023/3/31/23664142/trump-indictment-manhattan-rule-of-law-risks">a Catch-22</a> at work here. On the one hand, checking an authoritarian threat like Trump requires independent action by key institutions. On the other, the very reason the authoritarian threat exists — Trump’s strong popular support in one of two major political parties — makes it hard for institutions to take definitive action.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GPA5Ib">
This illustrates the paradox of American democracy: The institutions are both strong and weak. Strong in the sense that they are capable of coordinated action to defend democracy; weak in the sense that they lack sufficient bipartisan legitimacy to address the fundamental reason why democracy needs defense in the first place.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="dTGYGV">
Hence why some of the most effective legal tools for stopping Trump remain unused. Senate Republicans could have convicted Trump in his post-January 6 impeachment trial and barred him from holding public office again; they chose not to because they were afraid their voters would choose Trump over them. There’s a very strong case that Trump is constitutionally barred from holding office under <a href="https://www.vox.com/23828477/trump-2024-14th-amendment-banned">Section 3 of the 14th Amendment</a>, but it’s unlikely that any election officials will try to enforce this rule for fear of causing a political earthquake.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hz5QDM">
Under such conditions, nonpartisan institutions can only do so much. Trump can <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/06/trump-running-for-president-prison-00090931">run for the presidency from a jail cell if he wants</a>. Given how narrow presidential elections are in the US, and how many things could happen to the <a href="https://www.vox.com/economy">economy</a> or Biden’s health between now and November 2024, it’s even possible he could win from one.
</p>
<h3 id="1s9iNg">
The ominous Israeli parallel
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JCMZhJ">
Ultimately, I fear, America is <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23301390/trump-investigation-mar-a-lago-search-netanyahu">less like South Korea than Israel</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2dKh3u">
In that country, Netanyahu is trying to evade conviction on corruption charges by seizing control over the judiciary. He has successfully rammed through <a href="https://www.vox.com/2023/7/24/23805532/israel-judicial-overhaul-reasonableness">the first piece of his judicial overhaul</a> despite the largest protests in the country’s history, ones that <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/23629744/why-israelis-protesting-netanyahu-far-right-government-judiciary-overhaul">stopped his first attempt</a> at a power grab back in March.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6RIBB2">
Israel’s Supreme Court is now set to hear a case on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/world/middleeast/israel-judicial-overhaul-supreme-court.html">the legality of the overhaul in September</a>, setting the stage for a constitutional crisis — one where the court rules against the government’s law and the government declares it doesn’t recognize the validity of the court’s ruling.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wLsIgd">
Why did Israel experience a crisis when South Korea did not? There are several reasons, but one of the biggest is a much higher degree of underlying social polarization and conflict.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="SmkVpr">
Israel is not only split between Jews and Arabs but between differing groups inside the Jewish majority, with different segments of the population holding profoundly different and mutually exclusive visions for the country’s identity. On Netanyahu’s side, a segment of the population wishes to deepen Israeli control over Palestinian territory and/or expand privileges for religious Jews at the expense of the secular. On the other side are a range of different Jewish groups united in the belief that Netanyahu and his allies are an existential threat to Israel’s character as a state that’s both Jewish and democratic.
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9tc9n1dmZNHcPYB_ObT_mc07Ta4=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24854887/1555851934.jpg"/> <cite>Eyal Warshavsky/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>
Protesters take cover as a police water cannon fires at them during an anti-judicial overhaul demonstration outside the Knesset (Israel’s Parliament) in Jerusalem on July 24, 2023.
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JhaDEQ">
In Israel, the same paradoxical situation — strong institutions attempting to check misconduct under conditions of weak trans-partisan legitimacy — has led to a political crisis. The United States may be in for the same.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qj5OyR">
Like Israel, America is going through an identity crisis. Trump’s core support rests on a segment of the population alienated from the American mainstream, wedded to a vision for the country rooted in their <a href="https://www.vox.com/2023/8/4/23818817/trump-support-david-brooks-economic-anxiety">angst about its changing ethnic composition and social norms</a>. Such potent grievances, which touch on people’s fundamental sense of place and even self, fuel Trump’s support and make it very hard for neutral institutions to break through and convince people — even ones committed to democracy in theory — that their guy is the problem.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="HKmS5Q">
Under such conditions, institutions can only go so far.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1JJPU0">
Trying Trump is good and necessary, as are all the other steps that have been taken to safeguard democracy since his ascent to power. But they will be incapable of fully solving the problem on their own so long as Trump and his allies retain an iron grip on one of our two major parties.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WSzNt7">
It’s a political challenge that can only be handled in the most political of ways: at the ballot box.
</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>World chess federation bars transgender women from competing in women’s events</strong> - Holders of women’s titles who change their genders to male would see those titles abolished, FIDE said</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>India vs Ireland | First two T20Is sold out, declares Cricket Ireland</strong> - All 3 T20 matches will be played at ‘The Village’ Malahide Cricket Club Ground, which has an official capacity of 11,500.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Cricket carnival back as Andhra Premier League gets off to a great start</strong> - Six teams will face off with each other from August 16 to 27; all matches to be held at Dr. ACA-VDCA Stadium; entry to be free of cost</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Venus Williams, Caroline Wozniacki among U.S. Open wildcard entries</strong> - Venus Williams will make her 24th appearance in the main draw at Flushing Meadows, where she captured back-to-back titles in 2000 and 2001</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Man City wins UEFA Super Cup by beating Sevilla in a penalty shootout</strong> - The Super Cup is an annual match between last season’s winners of the Champions League (City) and Europa League (Sevilla).</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Alliance between parties key for ousting Jaganmohan Reddy, says JSP chief Pawan Kalyan</strong> - It all depends on the top leaders of BJP and TDP; if they decide not to come together, it might aid YSR Congress for another five-year term, which would take the State backwards by another five years, said the Jana Sena Party chief</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Karnataka | Local BJP leaders pushing me to join Congress, says Somashekar</strong> -</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Priority to placements at RJUKT, says Chancellor</strong> -</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Govt launches ‘FloodWatch’ app for real-time flood updates</strong> - ‘FloodWatch’ will send out alert messages and flood forecasts in both written and audio formats.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Nigerian drug kingpin from Bengaluru caught in Hyderabad</strong> - The accused was masquerading as a pastor in Bengaluru, according to City Police Commissioner</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine war: University students grapple with rules under conflict</strong> - War time rules are making it tougher for Ukrainians to pick where or if to go to university.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>World Athletics Championships: How a teenage Dina Asher-Smith and her relay team-mates started a medal-winning era in Moscow</strong> - The teenager. The prospect. The bolter. The late substitute. At Moscow 2013, an unfunded, unlikely quartet ended a 29-year wait for a British female sprint medal at a major championships.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukrainian prisoners of war say they were tortured at Russian prison</strong> - Former prisoners of war tell the BBC they were abused by Russian guards inside a detention facility.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Gotthard: World’s longest rail tunnel shut for months after freight crash</strong> - National Swiss rail operator SBB said a derailed freight train caused severe damage to tracks.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Tenerife wildfires lead to evacuation of villages</strong> - Helicopters spraying water battle to contain fires that began at a nature reserve on Tuesday.</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Guidemaster: RFID-blocker cards and wallets to help keep your cards secure</strong> - Gear to help protect information from your ID, credit cards, and debit cards. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1940546">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Appeals court reverses Texas ruling nullifying FDA approval of abortion pill</strong> - The ruling does not affect access to mifepristone; SCOTUS will decide the case. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1961447">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>DirectX 12 support comes to CrossOver on Mac with latest update</strong> - CrossOver for Linux got some updates too—but not DirectX 12. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1961372">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>An Iowa school district is using ChatGPT to decide which books to ban</strong> - Official: “It is simply not feasible to read every book” for depictions of sex. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1961316">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Fugitive “sovereign citizen” arrested for selling silver as bogus COVID cure</strong> - Gordon H. Pedersen of Utah was on the run from fraud charges for three years. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1961394">link</a></p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>My sister, Rachel, just came out as a lesbian and introduced us to her girlfriend. Also named Rachel</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
<div class="md">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
It’s my first time meeting an interrachel couple.
</p>
</div>
<!-- SC_ON -->
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/bonsaibatman"> /u/bonsaibatman </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/15t6b6w/my_sister_rachel_just_came_out_as_a_lesbian_and/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/15t6b6w/my_sister_rachel_just_came_out_as_a_lesbian_and/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The world’s leading expert on European wasps walks into a record shop.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
<div class="md">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
He asks the assistant “Do you have ‘European Vespidae Acoustics Volume 2? I believe it was released this week.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Certainly,” replies the assistant. “Would you like to listen before you buy it?”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“That would be wonderful,” says the expert, and puts on a pair of headphones.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
He listens for a few moments and says to the assistant, “I’m terribly sorry, but I am the world’s leading expert on European wasps and this is not accurate at all. I don’t recognize any of those sounds. Are you sure this is the correct recording?”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The assistant checks the turntable, and replies that it is indeed European Vespidae Acoustics Volume 2. The assistant apologizes and lifts the needle onto the next track.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Again the expert listens for a few moments and then says to the assistant, “No, this just can’t be right! I’ve been an expert in this field for 43 years and I still don’t recognize any of these sounds.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The assistant apologizes again and lifts the needle to the next track.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The expert throws off the headphones as soon as it starts playing and is fuming with rage.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“This is outrageous false advertising! I am the world’s leading expert on European wasps and no European wasp has ever made a sound like the ones on this record!”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The manager of the shop overhears the commotion and walks over.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“What seems to be the problem, sir?”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“This is an outrage! I am the world’s leading expert on European wasps. Nobody knows more about them than I do. There is no way in hell that the sounds on that record were made by European wasps!”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The manager glances down and notices the problem instantly.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“I’m terribly sorry, sir. It appears we’ve been playing you the bee side.”
</p>
</div>
<!-- SC_ON -->
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/MercyReign"> /u/MercyReign </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/15tj47g/the_worlds_leading_expert_on_european_wasps_walks/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/15tj47g/the_worlds_leading_expert_on_european_wasps_walks/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A man wakes up hungover, with no memory of coming home.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
<div class="md">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
He realizes he’s fully clothed in bed. He sees one of the lamps on a bedside table is broken, and he smells like he was sick on himself. He sits up and sees muddy tracks leading to his bed.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The man groans and holds his head, knowing he’s going to be in big trouble with his wife. She then enters the bedroom with a glass of water and some aspirin. “Here sweetie, you probably need this” she says, handing it to him. “Sounds like you had a fun night. When you feel like it, I have your favorite breakfast in the kitchen, you can lay back down and I’ll bring it to you in bed. I had my mom pick up the kids so you can have some peace and quiet, and after you clean up and feel better, I was thinking we could fool around and I’ll do that thing for you that you like.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The man is baffled that she is being so nice to him. Suspicious, he asks what happened last night
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Around 2 AM I was woke up by you trying to unlock the door. I let you in and you staggered right past me and collapsed in the bed after knocking over the lamp” she says.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“I was mad but I figured I should try to undress you. Then you yelled at me.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“I’m so sorry honey, what did I say?”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Get your hands off of me lady, I’m married!”
</p>
</div>
<!-- SC_ON -->
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/MarkHirsbrunner"> /u/MarkHirsbrunner </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/15sqwlc/a_man_wakes_up_hungover_with_no_memory_of_coming/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/15sqwlc/a_man_wakes_up_hungover_with_no_memory_of_coming/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Man goes on holiday to Italy</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
<div class="md">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
A guy walks into a barbershop and sits in the chair.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The barber asks, “Are you going anywhere on holiday this year?”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Guy replies, “Yes actually, my wife and I are going to Italy.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Barber says, “Why you going there? It’s rubbish!”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Guy says, “Well, the weather is supposed to be nice.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The barber replies, “Well, when me and my wife went to Italy a few years ago, it pissed down with rain every day we were there.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The guy says, “Well, I hear the food is nice.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The barber laughs. “When me and the wife went, the stuff they gave us was almost inedible.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The guy says, “Um, well, we’d really like to see the Roman architecture.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“You’ll be lucky,” says the barber. “They’re doing the place up. Tarpaulin and scaffolding everywhere. Can’t see a thing!”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Frustrated, the guy turns to him and says, “Okay mate, I’ll square it with you. The wife and I, we’re Catholic. And we’d really like to go to the Vatican and see the Pope.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The barber quickly answers. “Well, me and the wife are also Catholic. And we wanted to see the Pope too. But when we went to St Peter’s Square, we were crammed into it with a million other Catholics and when he was on the balcony, all you could see was the tip of his hat… Honestly. Don’t go to Italy.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
A month passes and finally the guy returns to the barbershop and sits in the same chair.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The barber says, “Oh yeah, weren’t you the guy who was going to Italy?”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Yes I was,” replies the guy. “And I have some issues to raise with you. Firstly, the sun was splitting the trees every day, the weather was amazing. Secondly, the food… pizza, pasta… it was incredible. Thirdly… You said we wouldn’t be able to see the Roman architecture. In fact, we could touch it. It was astoundng to be so close to ancient history.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Ah,” says the barber, “but did you see the Pope?”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Well yes,” admits the guy, “we did go to St Peter’s Square and we were crammed in there with a million other Catholics, and when the Pope came out all we could see was the tip of his hat… We were disappointed. But then! His bejewelled hands came over the balcony and pointed to our section of the crowd. All the Catholics began murmuring. I was like, ‘What is going on?!’ Then the Pope came out into the square, flanked by his Swiss Guard and all of his top cardinals, and he began his way into the crowd, which parted before him like the Red Sea. The crowd began to grow excited and I could see he was making his way in our direction, his hat bobbing through the people . Then suddenly, the folks in front of us moved and there was the Pope, the Bishop of Rome, standing before us, looking at ME! Then the Holy Father himself reached out and gently took my hand, and gazing upon me, he asked, ‘Who the FUCK cut your hair?’”
</p>
</div>
<!-- SC_ON -->
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/auldclem"> /u/auldclem </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/15t49a4/man_goes_on_holiday_to_italy/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/15t49a4/man_goes_on_holiday_to_italy/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Duck in a hard hat and hi-vis vest walks into a bar.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
<div class="md">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
A duck wearing a hard hat and a hi-vis walks into a bar. Looking exhausted, he removes his hat, takes a seat and asks for a beer.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The barman eyes him as he pours. “I haven’t seen you in here before,” he says.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Yeah,” replies the duck. “Do you know the big building surrounded by scaffolding down the street? I’m working in there for the next month. It’s a big refurbishment. Pretty knackered by it…”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Well,” the barman replies, “you’re always welcome here.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The next day, after work, the duck returns to the bar wearing his hard hat and the hi-vis vest. As before, he looks exhausted, takes off the hat and orders a pint.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“How’s the job going?” asks the barman.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Back-breaking,” replies the duck. “I really need a new job. If I could work anywhere else, I would…”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
On the third day, a ringmaster walks into the bar. He removes his hat and takes a seat, ordering a beer.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The barman pours and says, “Haven’t seen you in here before…”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The ringmaster replies, “Yeah, do you know the big park nearby? We are putting the Big Top up. The circus is in town this weekend and I’m just getting my bearings round the place.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Remembering the duck and his woes, the barman says, “Listen, I have something you might be interested in. For the last two days, we’ve had this talking duck coming in. Says he’s unhappy and I’m wondering if, maybe, you could help him out.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Absolutely,” says the ringmaster, excitedly handing the barman his card. “We haven’t had a talking duck in years! Please pass my details on and we could have a word.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
A short time later, after the ringmaster has left, the duck returns. This time he looks even more exhausted and he plods up to the bar, sits down and takes off his hard hat. Dejected, he requests a beer.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Instead of the beer, the barman pushes the ringmaster’s card along the surface and says, “Listen, you’ve to give this guy a call.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The duck looks at the card. “What’s up?”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The barman says, “You said you were unhappy in your job. This guy says he’s got a job for you…”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The duck picks up the card and says, “Why, is he looking for a joiner?”
</p>
</div>
<!-- SC_ON -->
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/auldclem"> /u/auldclem </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/15tgqz6/duck_in_a_hard_hat_and_hivis_vest_walks_into_a_bar/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/15tgqz6/duck_in_a_hard_hat_and_hivis_vest_walks_into_a_bar/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
</ul>
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