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Covid-19 Sentry

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Contents

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From Preprints

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From Clinical Trials

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From PubMed

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From Patent Search

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Daily-Dose

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Contents

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From New Yorker

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From Vox

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+Given the country’s rate of vaccination, decreased community spread, and reopening, those pandemic issues might not be as relevant come November — or in 2022 and beyond. Trump, though, still will be. +

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+At Snyder’s event, an emcee opened the afternoon by asking, “How many of you wish Donald Trump was president right now?” and a one-time Trump operator told the crowd they had to get to work to “defeat the socialists,” who “might even be worse than socialists, they’re bordering on communists.” +

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+Youngkin, for his part, makes sure to note in his stump speech that he’s won praise from Trump, but he was also willing to criticize the former president’s tone as “a bit harsh” at a campaign event in northern Virginia. +

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+Loyalty to Trump isn’t the key thing, argues Peter Doran, a former think tank CEO and one of the other three candidates recognized by the state party. (The others are former Roanoke Sheriff Octavia Johnson and retired Army Col. Sergio de la Peña.) +

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+“Most Virginia Republicans are painted as these big hard-right, hard-conservative voters who only care about Donald Trump. That’s not true,” Doran said. “They care about their job. They care about what’s happening to their kids in this past year, and their education. And they care very deeply about the Republican Party’s failure to win over the past decade.” +

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+Wilma, a mother of four and delegate in the convention, agreed, saying the GOP’s future relies on getting young people to understand conservative values like small government, constitutional rights, and concern about the deficit. +

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+“My kids all look at the stimulus — it might be nice to get that money, that cash,” she said. “But eventually they know in the long run, they’re the generation that’s going to have to pay it back.” +

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+The culture wars have consumed the GOP +

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+Still, it’s no longer enough to tick the “fiscal conservative,” “Christian,” “gun owner,” and “anti-abortion” boxes. There are new ones on the list — keywords of the culture war issues the former president helped animate. +

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+Take “critical race theory,” which Chase says is part of the reason she decided to homeschool her children. +

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+As Vox’s Fabiola Cineas explained, “critical race theory is a framework for grappling with racial power and white supremacy in America.” But it’s also become a catch-all term for what the Trump administration thought was an effort to “indoctrinate” American students and workers with “divisive and harmful sex- and race-based ideologies”: +

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+“They’ve lumped everything together: critical race theory, the 1619 project, whiteness studies, talking about white privilege,” Kimberlé Crenshaw, a founding critical race theorist and UCLA and Columbia University law professor, told Vox. “What they have in common is they are discourses that refuse to participate in the lie that America has triumphantly overcome its racist history, that everything is behind us. None of these projects accept that it’s all behind us.” +

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+It’s not just Chase using the term frequently: Almost all the candidates make sure to highlight their opposition to it; six have signed a pledge opposing critical race theory. As journalist Dave Weigel pointed out on Twitter, Youngkin went so far as to upload multiple video clips of him criticizing it. +

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+One of the front-runners in the #VAGov GOP primary uploaded four videos in 24 hours about his opposition to critical race theory. pic.twitter.com/RjSuGf3Enx +

+— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) May 3, 2021 +
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+Trump’s impact, though, is perhaps most evident in the obsession with election security. +

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+On one hand, Amanda Chase’s stance on the 2020 election sets her apart from the rest of the party — so much so that she, her supporters, and some outsiders suspect the state party chose a convention rather than a primary to mitigate the risk of her ending up at the top of their ticket. +

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+Last month, in an interview with the AP, Chase even questioned whether Biden won Virginia. (He carried it by 10 percentage points, as official election results show.) +

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+But none of the candidates can distance themselves too far from Trump’s lies and doubt-sowing about the 2020 election. They need only look to the US House to see the consequences of doing so. +

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+This is the key here. Cheney is responding to massive movement across the party to validate 1/6, led by, but by no means limited, to Trump. She’s not the one forcing this conversation, what annoys her colleagues is she won’t ignore it. https://t.co/t6QzdKQTkn +

+— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) May 6, 2021 +
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+Neither Youngkin nor Snyder will say Biden’s presidency is legitimate. Cox appears willing to do so (at least when he’s not at a diner in southwest Virginia). +

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+And everyone has plans to improve election integrity. Youngkin promotes his “election security task force,” one plank of which is updating voter rolls monthly. He and Cox talk about making the state election commission nonpartisan. Snyder wants to “make Virginia No. 1 in ballot integrity.” +

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+They’re all fairly anodyne-sounding proposals, but talking about things like that is a requirement for securing the nomination, says Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington. +

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+“While they may not support what happened on January 6, they do want to offer a position that shows some sympathy to the position of Trump supporters,” Farnsworth said. +

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+That doesn’t necessarily mean the rhetoric will dog them during the general election — Youngkin’s spokesperson said they believe election security isn’t a partisan issue, “it’s a democracy issue.” +

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+And “Kirk Cox is an example of a candidate who accepts Biden as a legitimate president but nevertheless speaks in ways that gives some solace to Trump supporters,” Farnsworth pointed out, and moreover, it’s likely that “voters in November will not be dramatically impacted by what’s said in May.” +

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+Still, the insistence on making America’s elections more secure helps perpetuate a world in which seven out of 10 Republican voters still say — per a recent CNN poll — that Biden didn’t win enough votes to be president. +

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+Questioning election integrity is coming home to roost +

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+And the continued questioning of elections has applied even to their own party’s choices. Some of those choices, admittedly, merit scrutiny from candidates extolling the importance of signatures on absentee ballots. But it also led Youngkin, Cox, and Chase to write to the party, demanding it not use “untested and unproven software that creates uncertainty, lacks openness and transparency, and is inconsistent with our calls as a party for safe and secure elections.” +

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+Now, every ranked-choice ballot will be counted by hand, at a ballroom at the Richmond Marriott, race by race. Chair Rich Anderson detailed to the Virginia Scope’s Brandon Jarvis the lengths the Republican Party of Virginia is going to try to instill confidence in the process: +

+ +

+They’ve also set aside money to livestream the counting process, because, Anderson said, “I just don’t want to repeat what was done in different places around the country where people were concerned about it being an opaque process.” +

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+That’s left “no room” for any conspiracy theories about the counting to crop up, says John March, the state party communications director. Even so, there are bound to be some dissidents, and if it takes days, Coleman says he cansee the conspiracy theories now.” +

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+“When you have a multi-candidate field in a multi-round election,” Farnsworth said, “the only sound bet is expecting that the party won’t get together and sing ‘kumbaya’ when this is all over.” +

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+Do these Republicans even have a shot in a general election? +

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+Virginia, once home to the capital of the Confederacy, has moved left enough in presidential races that on election night in 2020, the forecast group Decision Desk called it for Joe Biden right as polls closed. Trump ended up with just 44 percent of the vote here, Biden with 54. +

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+But the GOP argues the state is not lost to them just yet. +

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+In recent decades, Virginia had a peevish streak, electing a governor from the opposite party that just won the White House. The candidate to break that trend was former Gov. Terry McAuliffe — who’s running again this year. +

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+And March points to the “unprecedented” level of interest in the convention as a sign of what’s to come: “54,000 people are getting involved on the grassroots level. … You don’t really see that, and that just shows how excited Virginia Republicans are.” +

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+Without Trump on the ballot this year, there might be an opening — a slim one for the governorship, but a bigger one to flip competitive state House districts. The person Republicans choose on Saturday will matter a lot. +

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+“One thing I do think that could bode well for them is even though he lost, in 2017 Ed Gillespie got more votes than any previous Republican nominee for governor,” Coleman pointed out. “So maybe if Youngkin or whoever else can get that type of Gillespie turnout, which is definitely a question mark, and Democrats can’t get that anti-Trump turnout, maybe it’s going to be closer.” +

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+Even so, it’s going to be an uphill battle for the GOP to narrow margins in some areas, let alone retake them. Take Chesterfield County, which Republicans easily won for decades. In 2020, it went for Biden by more than 6 percentage points. +

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+“Going forward,” Coleman says, “this may be the last potential cycle where the Republicans could win a county like Chesterfield, and that may not even be enough — it may be necessary but not sufficient.” +

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+Democrats seem to think it won’t be. +

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+“We’re ready for a fight; we expect a fight. We expect a tough race,” said David Turner, the communications director for the Democratic Governors Association. “But what I would say is you can’t report accurately on the state of Virginia without acknowledging there’s pre-Trump and there’s post-Trump, and we’re still post-Trump.” +

+ + +

+It could cause serious damage if it hits a major population zone, but so far few governments — especially the one in Beijing — seem overly concerned. +

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+“The probability of this process causing harm on the ground is extremely low,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said on Friday. The White House and Pentagon, meanwhile, say they’re tracking the rocket and have no plans to shoot it out of the sky. +

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+After speaking with experts, two things have become clear about this episode. +

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+The first is that the idea of a large rocket hurtling toward Earth is understandably scary. It conjures up images of a city devastated by the impact, potentially injuring thousands. +

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+Importantly, the chance of anything like that happening is infinitesimally small — like 1 in a 196.9 million chance small. While there have been a few bad incidents in the past, nothing on that scale has ever happened, and very likely won’t now. +

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+The second is that it’s troubling this scenario could happen in the first place. Why is it possible for China, or any other space-faring nation, to launch massive rockets and let them fall to earth willy-nilly? +

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+The answer to that is policy failure: Despite regulations on space flight and conduct, the issue of rocket reentry is loosely and poorly regulated, so countries cut corners and take their chances that a falling rocket won’t hit anything major. +

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+“We’re in the realm of risk management, and states are willing to swallow the risk,” said Christopher Newman, a professor of space law and policy at Northumbria University in Britain. +

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+But there’s always the more-than-zero chance that their luck runs out and a falling rocket sparks a catastrophe. Experts are unanimous that the falling Chinese rocket is a symptom of a much larger problem that needs solving sooner rather than later. +

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+“If you don’t want any more of this kind of thing to happen, we need the big powers to step up,” said Bleddyn Bowen, a professor of space warfare and policy at the University of Leicester in the UK. +

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+How to stop the next falling rocket +

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+There’s a trope about space that it’s the “Wild West,” a phrase I often catch myself using. But the truth is that there have been rules governing operations in space for decades. +

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+In the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 and Liability Convention of 1972 are guidelines for how to punish a country that lets one of its rockets cause damage on Earth. Basically, those rules say that the offending state can be held liable by the victim nation. So, in this case, if the Chinese rocket were to land in the middle of New York City (which, again, is extremely unlikely to happen), the Biden administration could ask China to pay for damages and demand other recourse. +

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+In other words, this is a state-to-state issue. “If the rocket lands on my house, I can’t go and sue China,” Northumbria’s Newman told me. That’d be UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s job to call up Chinese President Xi Jinping. +

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+But that’s really it. There’s nothing in international law to stop any nation from letting any of the 900 rockets currently in orbit from falling in an unplanned way. “This isn’t illegal,” Newman said about the current saga of the Chinese rocket. “There is no sort of regulation on an international level on reentry.” +

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+Individual countries essentially govern themselves when they make plans to launch a rocket into space. If the Chinese government is fine with the plan of an unplanned reentry, then that’s what’ll happen at the end of the mission. +

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+Naturally, such plans cause frustration among space experts. “I think it’s negligent of them,” Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Center for Astrophysics in the US, told the New York Times on Thursday. “I think it’s irresponsible.” Last year, in fact, another Chinese Long March 5B rocket burned up and pieces of metal fell onto a few buildings in the Ivory Coast. +

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+But it’s important to remember two things. +

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+First, China — and other leading space-faring nations like the US, Russia, Japan, and the European Union — know that the chance of hitting people or infrastructure is so small that they don’t feel the need to spend extra money and time to plan for a controlled reentry. +

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+Ensuring a rocket splashes into, say, the Pacific Ocean, requires more fuel and staff work, which increases the cost of missions. For most space agencies grappling with small budgets, cutting costs on that part of the operation is worth the risk. +

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+Second, and relatedly, China isn’t the only country taking their chances here; others, including the US, have as well, leading to some scary scenes. +

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+In 1978, a Soviet satellite carrying a nuclear reactor crash-landed in northern Canada and spewed radioactive waste. The next year, the NASA-launched Skylab space station — America’s first one — fell out of orbit, with parts landing in the Indian Ocean and in Western Australia, though luckily hurting no one. +

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+“Bad behavior was quite typical by the Americans and Soviets during the space race,” said Leicester’s Bowen. “Those who live in glass houses should not throw stones,” he said of current complaints about the Chinese rocket. +

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+While there are more safety measures now and technology has improved, experts say the main problem is still that space law is too lax on this issue. They point to the Ivory Coast incident last year, where the country decided not to seek recourse from China, potentially out of the desire not to anger a key economic partner. +

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+So what has to change? +

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+Experts say countries like China, the US, and others should leverage this moment and work through the United Nations to regulate rocket reentry. They should compel space programs to spend more to ensure their rockets land far away from people, and even wildlife, when possible. Even if the risk of a calamity is extremely low today, the fact that it’s more than zero is already too high. +

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+“If this is good for anything, it’s an opportunity for everyone to take ownership of space as a domain of human activity and to want a say in how it’s governed,” said Northumbria’s Newman. “We’re now at the stage where this is generating concern.” +

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+But until there’s political will for such action — and governments take the rocket reentry problem seriously — we’ll have more Chinese-rocket-type scares. +

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From The Hindu: Sports

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From The Hindu: National News

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From BBC: Europe

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From Ars Technica

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From Jokes Subreddit

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