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<title>20 November, 2023</title>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="covid-19-sentry">Covid-19 Sentry</h1>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
<ul>
<li><a href="#from-preprints">From Preprints</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-clinical-trials">From Clinical Trials</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-pubmed">From PubMed</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-patent-search">From Patent Search</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-preprints">From Preprints</h1>
<ul>
<li><strong>Feasibility of a Digital Parent Support Group Chat Intervention to Prevent Child and Adolescent Maltreatment in the Philippines: A Pilot Mixed Methods Study</strong> -
<div>
This study examined the preliminary outcomes, feasibility, and acceptability of MaPaChat, a parent support group intervention delivered using Viber group chat delivered to Filipino caregivers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Forty caregivers of children aged 4-17 from predominantly low-income households participated in a culturally adapted version of the Parenting for Lifelong Health ParentChat program. A single-group pre-post design was used to assess changes in the primary outcomes of child maltreatment, positive parenting, and parenting stress; and secondary outcomes of parent depression, child behavior problems, parenting self-efficacy to reduce sexual abuse risk, intimate partner violence, and attitudes toward punishment. Feasibility was assessed by enrollment, attendance, and dropout rates. Semi-structured interviews with caregivers and program facilitators explored program acceptability. Pre-post comparisons showed reductions in physical and emotional abuse, parenting stress, parent depressive symptoms, child behavior problems, child behavior problem intensity, women’s intimate partner violence victimization; and an increase in parental efficacy in preventing sexual abuse risk. The mean attendance rate was 82% and the dropout rate was 10%. Caregivers and facilitators found the program helpful in enhancing parenting knowledge and skills and were satisfied with the program delivery using Viber group chat but also reported experiencing technological challenges.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://osf.io/tz67u/" target="_blank">Feasibility of a Digital Parent Support Group Chat Intervention to Prevent Child and Adolescent Maltreatment in the Philippines: A Pilot Mixed Methods Study</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Making Sense of Uncertainty in the Science Classroom: A Bayesian Approach</strong> -
<div>
Uncertainty is ubiquitous in science, but scientific knowledge is often represented to the public and in educational contexts as certain and immutable. This contrast can foster distrust when scientific knowledge develops in ways that can be perceived as reversals, as we have observed during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on research in statistics, child development, and several studies in science education, we argue that a Bayesian approach can support science learners to make sense of uncertainty. In this paper, we review prior research on uncertainty and Bayesian approaches to scientific reasoning and provide a brief primer on Bayes’ Theorem. We then describe three ways to make Bayesian reasoning practical in K-12 science education contexts: using principles informed by Bayes’ Theorem that relate to the nature of knowing and knowledge, interacting with a web-based application (or widget—Confidence Updater) that makes the calculations needed to apply Bayes’ Theorem more practical, and adopting strategies for supporting even young learners to engage in Bayesian reasoning. We conclude with directions for future research and sum up how viewing science and scientific knowledge from a Bayesian perspective can build trust in science.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://osf.io/aznyq/" target="_blank">Making Sense of Uncertainty in the Science Classroom: A Bayesian Approach</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Impact of State Telehealth Parity Laws for Private Payers on Hypertension Management before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic</strong> -
<div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
BACKGROUND: Telehealth has emerged as an effective tool for managing common chronic conditions such as hypertension, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the impact of state telehealth payment and coverage parity laws on hypertension management remains uncertain. METHODS: Data from the MerativeTM MarketScan® Commercial Claims and Encounters Database from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2021 were used to construct the study cohort. The sample included non-pregnant individuals aged 25?64 years with hypertension. We reviewed and coded telehealth parity laws related to hypertension management in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, distinguishing between payment parity laws and coverage parity laws. The primary outcomes were antihypertension medication use, measured by the average medication possession ratio (MPR), medication adherence (MPR ?80%), and average number of days of drug supply. We used a generalized difference-in-difference (DID) design to examine the impact of these laws. Results were presented as marginal effects and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Among 353,220 individuals, states with payment parity laws were significantly linked to increased average MPR by 0.43 percentage point (95% CI: 0.07 - 0.79), and an increase of 0.46 percentage point (95% CI: 0.06 - 0.92) in the probability of medication adherence. Payment parity laws also led to an average increase of 2.14 days (95% CI: 0.11 - 4.17) in antihypertensive drug supply, after controlling for state-fixed effects, year-fixed effects, individual sociodemographic characteristics and state time-varying covariates including unemployment rates, GDP per capita, and poverty rates. In contrast, coverage parity laws were associated with a 2.13-day increase (95% CI: 0.19 - 4.07) in days of drug supply, but did not significantly increase the average MPR or probability of medication adherence. In addition, telehealth payment or coverage parity laws were positively associated with the number of hypertension-related telehealth visits, but this effect did not reach statistical significance. These findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: State telehealth payment parity laws were significantly associated with greater medication adherence, whereas coverage parity laws were not. With the increasing adoption of telehealth parity laws across states, these findings may support policymakers in understanding potential implications on management of hypertension.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.11.16.23298658v1" target="_blank">Impact of State Telehealth Parity Laws for Private Payers on Hypertension Management before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Development of a prediction model for 30-day COVID-19 hospitalization and death in a national cohort of Veterans Health Administration patients - March 2022 - April 2023.</strong> -
<div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
<b>Objective</b>: Develop models to predict 30-day COVID-19 hospitalization and death in the Omicron era for clinical and research applications. <b>Material and Methods</b>: We used comprehensive electronic health records from a national cohort of patients in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between March 1, 2022, and March 31, 2023. Full models incorporated 84 predictors , including demographics, comorbidities, and receipt of COVID-19 vaccinations and anti-SARS-CoV-2 treatments. Parsimonious models included 19 predictors. We created models for 30-day hospitalization or death, 30-day hospitalization, and 30-day all-cause mortality. We used the Super Learner ensemble machine learning algorithm to model risks. Model performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier scores, and calibration intercepts and slopes in a 20% holdout dataset. <b>Results</b>: Models were trained and tested on 198,174 patients, of whom 8% were hospitalized or died within 30 days of testing positive. AUCs for the full models ranged from 0.80 (hospitalization) to 0.91 (death). Brier scores were close to 0, with the lowest error in the mortality model (Brier score: 0.01). All three models were well calibrated with calibration intercepts &lt;0.23 and slopes &lt;1.05. Parsimonious models performed comparably to full models. <b>Discussion</b>: These models may be used for risk stratification to inform COVID-19 treatment and to identify high-risk patients for inclusion in clinical trials. <b>Conclusions</b>: We developed prediction models that accurately estimate COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality risk following emergence of the Omicron variant and in the setting of COVID-19 vaccinations and antiviral treatments.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.11.17.23298653v1" target="_blank">Development of a prediction model for 30-day COVID-19 hospitalization and death in a national cohort of Veterans Health Administration patients - March 2022 - April 2023.</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Antibody response to symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant viruses, December 2021 to June 2022</strong> -
<div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
To describe humoral immune responses to symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, we assessed immunoglobulin G binding antibody levels using a commercial multiplex bead assay against SARS-CoV-2 ancestral spike protein receptor binding domain (RBD) and nucleocapsid protein (N). We measured binding antibody units per mL (BAU/mL) during acute illness within 5 days of illness onset and during convalescence in 105 ambulatory patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection with Omicron variant viruses. Comparing acute- to convalescent phase antibody concentrations, geometric mean anti-N antibody concentrations increased 47-fold from 5.5 to 259 BAU/mL. Anti-RBD antibody concentrations increased 2.5-fold from 1258 to 3189 BAU/mL.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.11.17.23298700v1" target="_blank">Antibody response to symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant viruses, December 2021 to June 2022</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub</strong> -
<div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Importance: COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Objective: To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023–April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups). Design: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023–April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario. Setting: The entire United States. Participants: None. Exposure: Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. Main outcomes and measures: Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period. Results: From April 15, 2023–April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November–January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000–4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000–461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000–355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000–54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000–598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000–69,000) fewer deaths. Conclusion and Relevance: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.10.26.23297581v2" target="_blank">Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Fluoxetine promotes immunometabolic defenses to mediate host-pathogen cooperation during sepsis</strong> -
<div>
Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) are some of the most prescribed drugs in the world. While they are used for their ability to increase serotonergic signaling in the brain, SSRIs are also known to have a broad range of effects beyond the brain, including immune and metabolic effects. Recent studies have demonstrated that SSRIs are protective in animal models and humans against several infections, including sepsis and COVID-19, however the mechanisms underlying this protection are largely unknown. Here we mechanistically link two previously described effects of the SSRI fluoxetine in mediating protection against sepsis. We show that fluoxetine-mediated protection is independent of peripheral serotonin, and instead increases levels of circulating IL-10. IL-10 is necessary for protection from sepsis-induced hypertriglyceridemia and cardiac triglyceride accumulation, allowing for metabolic reprogramming of the heart. Our work reveals a beneficial off-target effect of fluoxetine, and reveals a protective immunometabolic defense mechanism with therapeutic potential.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.11.18.567681v1" target="_blank">Fluoxetine promotes immunometabolic defenses to mediate host-pathogen cooperation during sepsis</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Spatially resolved single-cell atlas of the lung in fatal Covid19 in an African population reveals a distinct cellular signature and an interferon gamma dominated response</strong> -
<div>
Postmortem single-cell studies have transformed understanding of lower respiratory tract diseases (LRTD) including Covid19 but there is almost no data from African settings where HIV, malaria and other environmental exposures may affect disease pathobiology and treatment targets. We used histology and high-dimensional imaging to characterise fatal lung disease in Malawian adults with (n=9) and without (n=7) Covid19, and generated single-cell transcriptomics data from lung, blood and nasal cells. Data integration with other cohorts showed a conserved Covid19 histopathological signature, driven by contrasting immune and inflammatory mechanisms: in the Malawi cohort, by response to interferon-gamma in lung-resident alveolar macrophages, in USA, European and Asian cohorts by type I/III interferon responses, particularly in blood-derived monocytes. HIV status had minimal impact on histology or immunopathology. Our study provides data resources and highlights the importance of studying the cellular mechanisms of disease in underrepresented populations, indicating shared and distinct targets for treatment.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.11.16.566964v1" target="_blank">Spatially resolved single-cell atlas of the lung in fatal Covid19 in an African population reveals a distinct cellular signature and an interferon gamma dominated response</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Dynamic label-free analysis of SARS-CoV-2 infection reveals virus-induced subcellular remodeling.</strong> -
<div>
Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on organelle dynamics allows a better understanding of the mechanisms of viral replication. We combine label-free holo-tomographic microscopy (HTM) with Artificial Intelligence (AI) to visualize and quantify the subcellular changes triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection. We study the dynamics of shape, position and dry mass of nucleoli, nuclei, lipid droplets (LD) and mitochondria within hundreds of single cells from early infection to syncytia formation and death. SARS-CoV-2 infection enlarges nucleoli, perturbs LD, changes mitochondrial shape and dry mass, and separates LD from mitochondria. We then used Bayesian statistics on organelle dry mass states to define organelle cross-regulation (OCR) networks and report modifications of OCR that are triggered by infection and syncytia formation. Our work highlights the subcellular remodeling induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection and provides a new AI-enhanced, label-free methodology to study in real-time the dynamics of cell populations and their content.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.11.16.567378v1" target="_blank">Dynamic label-free analysis of SARS-CoV-2 infection reveals virus-induced subcellular remodeling.</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Identification of mouse CD4+ T cell epitopes in SARS-CoV-2 BA.1 spike and nucleocapsid for use in peptide:MHCII tetramers</strong> -
<div>
Understanding adaptive immunity against SARS-CoV-2 is a major requisite for the development of effective vaccines and treatments for COVID-19. CD4+ T cells play an integral role in this process primarily by generating antiviral cytokines and providing help to antibody-producing B cells. To empower detailed studies of SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ T cell responses in mouse models, we comprehensively mapped I-Ab restricted epitopes for the spike and nucleocapsid proteins of the BA.1 variant of concern via IFN{gamma} ELISpot assay. This was followed by the generation of corresponding peptide:MHCII tetramer reagents to directly stain epitope-specific T cells. Using this rigorous validation strategy, we identified 6 reliably immunogenic epitopes in spike and 3 in nucleocapsid, all of which are conserved in the ancestral Wuhan strain. We also validated a previously identified epitope from Wuhan that is absent in BA.1. These epitopes and tetramers will be invaluable tools for SARS-CoV-2 antigen-specific CD4+ T cell studies in mice.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.11.16.566918v1" target="_blank">Identification of mouse CD4+ T cell epitopes in SARS-CoV-2 BA.1 spike and nucleocapsid for use in peptide:MHCII tetramers</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Human microbiota is a reservoir of SARS-CoV-2 advantageous mutations</strong> -
<div>
SARS-CoV-2 mutations are rapidly emerging, in particular advantageous mutations in the spike (S) protein, which either increase transmissibility or lead to immune escape, are posing a major challenge to pandemic prevention and treatment. However, how the virus acquires a high number of advantageous mutations in a short time remains a mystery. Here, we show that the human microbiota may contribute to mutations in variants of concern (VOCs). We identified a mutation and adjacent 6 amino acids (aa) in a viral mutation fragment (VMF) and searched for homologous fragments (HFs) in the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) database. Among the approximate 8000 HFs obtained, 61 mutations in S and other outer membrane proteins were found in bacteria, accounting for 62% of all mutation sources, which is a 12-fold higher than the natural variable proportion. Approximately 70% of these bacterial species belong to the human microbiota, are primarily distributed in the gut or lung and exhibit a composition pattern similar to that of COVID-19 patients. Importantly, SARS-CoV-2 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) replicates corresponding bacterial mRNAs harboring mutations, producing chimeric RNAs. Collectively, SARS-CoV-2 may acquire mutations from the human microbiota, resulting in alterations in the binding sites or antigenic determinants of the original virus. Our study sheds light on the evolving mutational mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.11.16.567485v1" target="_blank">Human microbiota is a reservoir of SARS-CoV-2 advantageous mutations</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Krisp: A python package for designing CRISPR and amplification-based diagnostic assays from whole genome data</strong> -
<div>
Recent pandemics such as COVID-19 have highlighted the importance of rapidly developing diagnostics to detect and monitor evolving pathogens. CRISPR-Cas technology, combined with isothermal DNA amplification methods, has recently been used to develop diagnostic assays for sequence-specific recognition of DNA or RNA. These assays have similar sensitivity to the gold standard qPCR but can be deployed as easy to use and inexpensive test strips. However, the discovery of diagnostic regions of a genome flanked by conserved regions where primers can be designed requires extensive bioinformatic analyses of genome sequences. We developed the python package krisp to find primers and diagnostic sequences that differentiate groups of samples from each other at any taxonomic scale, using either unaligned genome sequences or a variant call format (VCF) file as input. Krisp has been optimized to handle large datasets by using efficient algorithms that run in near linear time, use minimal RAM, and leverage parallel processing when available. The validity of krisp results has been demonstrated in the laboratory with the successful design of SHERLOCK assays to distinguish the sudden oak death pathogen Phytophthora ramorum from closely related Phytophthora species. Krisp is released open source under a permissive license with all the documentation needed to quickly design CRISPR-Cas diagnostic assays.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.11.16.567433v1" target="_blank">Krisp: A python package for designing CRISPR and amplification-based diagnostic assays from whole genome data</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Unveiling the Emotional Turmoil: How Covid-19 impacted researchers and the pursuit of emotional well-being in academia.</strong> -
<div>
The Covid-19 crisis unprecedentedly required researchers to adapt to significant changes in their work and personal lives. Our study aims to fill this gap analysing the Covid-19 emotional impact and confinement potential disruptions on researchers activity (specifically, those related to working conditions, caring responsibilities, health, balance, and social support) considering the modulating role played by age, gender, and job position. An online survey was distributed during the first lockdown period of the Covid-19 pandemic, and answers from 1301 researchers (ECR %, senior researchers %) working in Sciences (28.1%), Social Sciences (25.9%), Humanities (16.2%), Health (16.2%) and in Engineering and Architecture (13.5%) were collected. The study highlights that the initial lockdown during the Covid-19 pandemic had a significant emotional impact on researchers, exacerbating pre-existing emotional distress and burnout within this group. Factors such as age, health, gender, and difficulties in balancing work and family life were associated with an increased risk of burnout and emotional distress. Lack of social support was identified as a significant risk factor, while the academic culture prioritizing productivity over well-being contributed to the issue. These findings underscore the need for greater support and cultural changes in academia to preserve researchers' mental health and prevent the chronicization of mental health issues in young academics.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.11.15.567306v1" target="_blank">Unveiling the Emotional Turmoil: How Covid-19 impacted researchers and the pursuit of emotional well-being in academia.</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Extending the welcome: a pluralist and coevolutionary analysis of the transformation of induction and transition provision</strong> -
<div>
This paper reflects on an institution-wide transformation of student welcome, induction and transition (WIT) at a large, research-intensive UK university, a change accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic. The paper examines this process of change, from its origins, through its evolution, and co-evolution, over three academic years since the onset of the Pandemic. To do so, the paper adopts a pluralist approach, utilising theories of change established in higher education literature: Kift’s transition pedagogy and Kotter’s model of organisational change. Crucially, it augments these with a co-evolutionary approach examining interacting populations, learning and qualitative change, which may provide useful insights to other institutions navigating changes to WIT provision.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://osf.io/preprints/edarxiv/emh3c/" target="_blank">Extending the welcome: a pluralist and coevolutionary analysis of the transformation of induction and transition provision</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Species and habitat specific changes in bird activity in an urban environment during Covid 19 lockdown</strong> -
<div>
Covid-19 lockdowns provided ecologists with a rare opportunity to examine how animals behave when humans are absent. Indeed many studies reported various effects of lockdowns on animal activity, especially in urban areas and other human-dominated habitats. We explored how Covid-19 lockdowns in Israel have influenced bird activity in an urban environment by using continuous acoustic recordings to monitor three common bird species that differ in their level of adaptation to the urban ecosystem: (1) the hooded crow, an urban exploiter, which depends heavily on anthropogenic resources; (2) the rose-ringed parakeet, an invasive alien species that has adapted to exploit human resources; and (3) the graceful prinia, an urban adapter, which is relatively shy of humans and can be found urban habitats with shrubs and prairies. Acoustic recordings provided continuous monitoring of bird activity without an effect of the observer on the animal. We performed dense sampling of a 1.3 square km area in northern Tel-Aviv by placing 17 recorders for more than a month in different micro-habitats within this region including roads, residential areas and urban parks. We monitored both lockdown and no-lockdown periods. We portray a complex dynamic system where the activity of specific bird species depended on many environmental parameters and decreases or increases in a habitat-dependent manner during lockdown. Specifically, urban exploiter species decreased their activity in most urban habitats during lockdown, while human adapter species increased their activity during lockdown especially in parks where humans were absent. Our results also demonstrate the value of different habitats within urban environments for animal activity, specifically highlighting the importance of urban parks. These species- and habitat-specific changes in activity might explain the contradicting results reported by others who have not performed a habitat specific analysis.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.06.03.543542v3" target="_blank">Species and habitat specific changes in bird activity in an urban environment during Covid 19 lockdown</a>
</div></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-clinical-trials">From Clinical Trials</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Cognitive Rehabilitation in Post-COVID-19 Syndrome</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>: Post-COVID-19 Syndrome <br/><b>Interventions</b>: Behavioral: CO-OP Procedures; Behavioral: Inactive Control Group <br/><b>Sponsors</b>: University of Missouri-Columbia; Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) <br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Robotic Assisted Hand Rehabilitation Outcomes in Adults After COVID-19</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>: Robotic Exoskeleton; Post-acute Covid-19 Syndrome; Rehabilitation Outcome; Physical And Rehabilitation Medicine <br/><b>Interventions</b>: Device: Training with a Robotic Hand Exoskeleton <br/><b>Sponsors</b>: University of Valladolid; Centro Hospitalario Padre Benito Menni <br/><b>Completed</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Safety and Immunogenicity of BNT162b2 Coadministered With SIIV in Adults 18 Through 64 Years of Age</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>: SARS-CoV-2 Infection; COVID-19 <br/><b>Interventions</b>: Biological: BNT162b2; Other: Placebo; Biological: Seasonal Inactivated Influenza Vaccine <br/><b>Sponsors</b>: Pfizer <br/><b>Completed</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Multicenter, Adaptive, Randomized, doublE-blinded, Placebo-controlled Study in Participants With Long COVID-19: The REVIVE Trial</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>: Long COVID-19 Syndrome; Chronic Fatigue Syndrome <br/><b>Interventions</b>: Drug: Fluvoxamine Maleate 100 MG; Drug: Placebo; Drug: Metformin Extended Release Oral Tablet <br/><b>Sponsors</b>: Cardresearch <br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Clinical Evaluation of the Panbio™ COVID-19/Flu A&amp;B Panel</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>: COVID-19; Influenza A; Influenza B <br/><b>Interventions</b>: Diagnostic Test: Panbio™ <br/><b>Sponsors</b>: Abbott Rapid Dx <br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Connecting Friends and Health Workers to Boost COVID-19 Vaccination in Latino Communities</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>: COVID-19; Vaccine <br/><b>Interventions</b>: Behavioral: REDES; Behavioral: Control <br/><b>Sponsors</b>: Johns Hopkins University; National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (NIMHD); Rutgers University <br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Safety and Tolerability of A8G6 COVID-19 Neutralization Antibody Combined With Nasal Spray</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>: SARS-CoV-2; Prevention <br/><b>Interventions</b>: Biological: A8G6 SARS-CoV-2 Neutralization Antibody combination nasal spray; Other: A8G6 SARS-CoV-2 Neutralization Antibody nasal excipient <br/><b>Sponsors</b>: The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University <br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Influence of Hypoxic, Normobaric and Hypobaric Training on the Immunometabolism of Post-covid-19 Athletes</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>: Normobaric Hypoxia; Hypoventilation; Normoxia <br/><b>Interventions</b>: Other: Repeated sprint <br/><b>Sponsors</b>: Faculdade de Motricidade Humana; University of Sao Paulo; Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior. <br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Clinical Evaluation of the Panbio™ COVID-19/Flu A&amp;B Panel to Support Home Use</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>: COVID-19; Influenza A; Influenza Type B <br/><b>Interventions</b>: Diagnostic Test: Panbio™ COVID-19/Flu A&amp;B Panel <br/><b>Sponsors</b>: Abbott Rapid Dx <br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Building Engagement Using Financial Incentives Trial - Colorectal Cancer Screening</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>: Health Behavior; Colorectal Cancer; Influenza; COVID-19; Vaccine Hesitancy; Vaccine-Preventable Diseases; Healthcare Patient Acceptance <br/><b>Interventions</b>: Behavioral: Financial incentive for colorectal cancer screening; Behavioral: Financial incentive for flu shot; Behavioral: Financial incentive for COVID-19 shot <br/><b>Sponsors</b>: Tulane University; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) <br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Effects of Rehabilitation Combined With a Maintenance Program Compared to Rehabilitation Alone in Post-COVID-19</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>: Post-COVID-19 Syndrome <br/><b>Interventions</b>: Procedure: Rehabilitation combined to a digital maintenance program; Procedure: Rehabilitation without maintenance program <br/><b>Sponsors</b>: Schön Klinik Berchtesgadener Land; Bavarian State Ministry of Health and Care (Funding); Deutsche Rentenversicherung Bund (German pension insurance) (Design); Betriebskrankenkassen Landesverband Bayern (Bavarian health insurance) (Design) <br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Child and Adolescent Mental Health Literacy for Primary Schools Teachers. A Multicomponent Intervention</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>: Child Mental Health <br/><b>Interventions</b>: Behavioral: Child Mental Health Literacy Program <br/><b>Sponsors</b>: Universidad de Valparaiso <br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Brief Digital Intervention to Increase COVID-19 Vaccination Among Individuals With Anxiety or Depression</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>: Misinformation; Vaccine Hesitancy; Anxiety; Depression; COVID-19 <br/><b>Interventions</b>: Behavioral: Attitudinal inoculation; Behavioral: Cognitive-behavioral therapy-informed intervention; Behavioral: Conventional public health messaging <br/><b>Sponsors</b>: City University of New York, School of Public Health; University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill <br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-pubmed">From PubMed</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Highly potent dual-targeting angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and Neuropilin-1 (NRP1) peptides: A promising broad-spectrum therapeutic strategy against SARS-CoV-2 infection</strong> - The efficacy of approved vaccines has been diminishing due to the increasing advent of SARS-CoV-2 variants with diverse mutations that favor sneak entry. Nonetheless, these variants recognize the conservative host receptors angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and neuropilin-1 (NRP1) for entry, rendering the dual blockade of ACE2 and NRP1 an advantageous pan-inhibition strategy. Here, we identified a highly potent dual-targeting peptide AP-1 using structure-based virtual screening protocol….</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Targeting SARS-CoV-2 entry processes: The promising potential and future of host-targeted small-molecule inhibitors</strong> - The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, has had a huge impact on global health. To respond to rapidly mutating viruses and to prepare for the next pandemic, there is an urgent need to develop small molecule therapies that target critical stages of the SARS-CoV-2 life cycle. Inhibiting the entry process of the virus can effectively control viral infection and play a role in prevention and treatment. Host factors involved in this process, such as ACE2, TMPRSS2, ADAM17, furin, PIKfyve, TPC2,…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Lianhua Qingwen protects LPS-induced acute lung injury by promoting M2 macrophage infiltration</strong> - CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our data demonstrate that LHQW reduces the inflammatory response and ameliorates acute lung injury by promoting anti-inflammatory polarization of macrophages.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Chrysin 7-O-β-D-glucuronide, a dual inhibitor of SARS-CoV-2 3CL<sup>pro</sup> and PL<sup>pro</sup>, for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19</strong> - The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 virus has resulted in the global pandemic COVID-19. Given the advent of subvariants, it is urgent to develop novel drugs. This work aims to discover SARS-CoV-2 inhibitors from Scutellaria baicalensis Georgi targeting the proteases 3CL^(pro) and PL^(pro). After screening 25 flavonoids, we revealed that chrysin 7-O-β-D-glucuronide could potently inhibit SARS-CoV-2 on Vero E6 cells, with EC(50) of 8.72 μM. Surface plasmon resonance, site-directed mutagenesis and…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>SARS-CoV-2 Variant-Specific Differences in Inhibiting the Effects of the PKR-Activated Integrated Stress Response</strong> - The integrated stress response (ISR) is a eukaryotic cell pathway that triggers translational arrest and the formation of stress granules (SGs) in response to various stress signals, including those caused by viral infections. The SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein has been shown to disrupt SGs, but SARS-CoV-2 interactions with other components of the pathway remains poorly characterized. Here, we show that SARS-CoV-2 infection triggers the ISR through activation of the eIF2α-kinase PKR while…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Niclosamide, but not ivermectin, inhibits anoctamin 1 and 6 and attenuates inflammation of the respiratory tract</strong> - Inflammatory airway diseases like cystic fibrosis, asthma and COVID-19 are characterized by high levels of pulmonary cytokines. Two well-established antiparasitic drugs, niclosamide and ivermectin, are intensively discussed for the treatment of viral inflammatory airway infections. Here, we examined these repurposed drugs with respect to their anti-inflammatory effects in airways in vivo and in vitro. Niclosamide reduced mucus content, eosinophilic infiltration and cell death in asthmatic mouse…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Identification of synthetically tractable MERS-CoV main protease inhibitors using structure-based virtual screening and molecular dynamics potential of mean force (PMF) calculations</strong> - The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a potentially lethal infection that presents a substantial threat to health, especially in Middle East nations. Given that no FDA-approved specific therapy for MERS infection exists, designing and discovering a potent antiviral therapy for MERS-CoV is crucial. One pivotal strategy for inhibiting MERS replication is to focus on the viral main protease (M^(pro)). In this study, we identify potential novel M^(pro) inhibitors employing…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>CD97 negatively regulates the innate immune response against RNA viruses by promoting RNF125-mediated RIG-I degradation</strong> - The G protein-coupled receptor ADGRE5 (CD97) binds to various metabolites that play crucial regulatory roles in metabolism. However, its function in the antiviral innate immune response remains to be determined. In this study, we report that CD97 inhibits virus-induced type-I interferon (IFN-I) release and enhances RNA virus replication in cells and mice. CD97 was identified as a new negative regulator of the innate immune receptor RIG-I, and RIG-1 degradation led to the suppression of the IFN-I…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 3CL protease by the anti-viral chimeric protein RetroMAD1</strong> - COVID-19 results from SARS-CoV-2, which mutates frequently, challenging current treatments. Therefore, it is critical to develop new therapeutic drugs against this disease. This study explores the interaction between SARS-CoV-2 3CL^(pro) and RetroMAD1, a well-characterized coronavirus protein and potential drug target, using in-silico methods. The analysis through the HDOCK server showed stable complex formation with a binding energy of -12.3, the lowest among reference drugs. The…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Targeting SARS-CoV-2 nonstructural protein 3: function, structure, inhibition, and perspective in drug discovery</strong> - As a highly contagious human pathogen, severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has infected billions of people worldwide with more than 6 million deaths. With several effective vaccines and antiviral drugs now available, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic been brought under control. However, a new pathogenic coronavirus could emerge in the future, given the zoonotic nature of this virus. Natural evolution and drug-induced mutations of SARS-CoV-2 also require continued…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Compounds derived from Humulus lupulus inhibit SARS-CoV-2 papain-like protease and virus replication</strong> - CONCLUSION: In addition to the already known inhibition of M^(pro) by XN, our results show, for the first time, that hop-derived compounds target also SARS-CoV-2 PL^(pro) which is a promising therapeutic target as it contributes to both viral replication and modulation of the immune system. These findings support the possibility to develop new hop-derived antiviral drugs targeting human coronaviruses.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Type I interferon signaling induces a delayed antiproliferative response in respiratory epithelial cells during SARS-CoV-2 infection</strong> - The proliferation of respiratory epithelial cells is crucial to host recovery from acute lung injury caused by SARS-CoV-2 and other viral pathogens, but the molecular pathways that govern this process are poorly understood. We performed a high-throughput CRISPR screen that surprisingly revealed a detrimental effect of specific host response, type I interferon (IFN-I) signaling, on the fitness of SARS-CoV-2-infected Calu-3 cells. While IFN-I signaling has been previously associated with several…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Luminescent reporter cells enable the identification of broad-spectrum antivirals against emerging viruses</strong> - The emerging viruses SARS-CoV-2 and arenaviruses cause severe respiratory and hemorrhagic diseases, respectively. The production of infectious particles of both viruses and virus spread in tissues requires cleavage of surface glycoproteins (GPs) by host proprotein convertases (PCs). SARS-CoV-2 and arenaviruses rely on GP cleavage by PCs furin and subtilisin kexin isozyme-1/site-1 protease (SKI-1/S1P), respectively. We report improved luciferase-based reporter cell lines, named luminescent…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Identification of Ebselen derivatives as novel SARS-CoV-2 main protease inhibitors: Design, synthesis, biological evaluation, and structure-activity relationships exploration</strong> - The main protease (M^(pro)) represents one of the most effective and attractive targets for designing anti-SARS-CoV-2 drugs. In this study, we designed and synthesized a novel series of Ebselen derivatives by incorporating privileged fragments from different pockets of the M^(pro) active site. Among these compounds, 11 compounds showed submicromolar activity in the FRET-based SARS-CoV-2 M^(pro) inhibition assay, with IC(50) values ranging from 233 nM to 550 nM. Notably, compound 3a displayed…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Traditional Formulations for Managing COVID-19: A Systematic Review</strong> - Background: The advancing etiopathogenesis, diagnosis, and treatment of the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have prompted the medical community to consider Ayurveda, Siddha, and Unani as add-on preventive and therapeutic options. Objective: To explore the effect of standalone or integrative Traditional Formulations (TFs) on selected clinical symptoms and biomarkers of COVID-19. Search strategy: Out of 465 articles identified from PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Scopus, 17…</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-patent-search">From Patent Search</h1>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
<ul>
<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>What Kind of Trouble Is Eric Adams In?</strong> - New York City’s mayor has downplayed the federal investigation into his campaign fund-raising, but, by dodging questions and obfuscating, he’s invited even more public scrutiny. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-kind-of-trouble-is-eric-adams-in">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>What Comes After Panda Diplomacy?</strong> - Biden meets with President Xi as U.S.-China relations get less warm and fuzzy. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-comes-after-panda-diplomacy">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Journalistic Independence Isn’t a Human-Resources Exercise</strong> - A free and independent press is vital to preserve, but doing so requires the people running media companies to take that idea out of mothballs. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/journalistic-independence-isnt-a-human-resources-exercise">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>After Forty Years of Democracy, Argentina Faces a Defining Presidential Runoff</strong> - Is the country really so fed up with the status quo that it will elect a right-wing former TV personality? - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/after-forty-years-of-democracy-argentina-faces-a-defining-presidential-runoff">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Mother’s Grief in New Haven</strong> - Laquvia Jones lost both of her sons to shootings. Now she wonders why a city with a deep sense of community—and one of the wealthiest universities in the world—can’t figure out how to address gun violence. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-weekend-essay/a-mothers-grief-in-new-haven">link</a></p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
<ul>
<li><strong>We’ve been fighting poverty all wrong</strong> -
<figure>
<img alt="A man, holding a sign that reads “Make Child Checks Permanent,” and a child crouch down to draw with chalk outside of Sen. Chuck Schumer’s home in Brooklyn, New York, on July 21, 2021." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6pLusPuKtYJKcuET8vOF5bOjNmE=/0x0:5249x3937/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72883859/1328589936.0.jpg"/>
<figcaption>
A man and a child draw with chalk outside of Sen. Chuck Schumer’s home in Brooklyn, New York, on July 21, 2021, to urge Congress to make the expanded child tax credit permanent. | Bryan Bedder/Getty Images for ParentsTogether
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The success of the expanded child tax credit shows why anti-poverty programs should be unconditional.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Iv7eoQ">
Since 1975, politicians have built huge portions of the American safety net — like the child tax credit (CTC) — around the idea that excluding the poorest Americans from government assistance will motivate them to climb out of deep poverty on their own and get a job.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jWBuiG">
This long-standing <a href="https://theintercept.com/2019/10/19/democrats-poverty-earned-income-tax-credit/">bipartisan consensus</a> is manifest in the twin ideas of <a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/work-requirements-and-income-requirements-explained/">work and income requirements</a>. Work requirements are simple: You either have a job or you don’t, and that binary is what determines whether you’re eligible for a handful of <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58199">welfare programs</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QX5gNF">
Income requirements are a little wonkier. They stipulate that anyone without any income will receive no benefits. Only after earned income surpasses a specified level do benefits begin kicking in — which is where we get another dry name: “phase-ins.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MlV0g2">
In practice, benefitting from programs with income requirements is conditional on already having a job. If you’re unemployed and have no other income, you’re out of luck. In the CTC, phase-ins exclude some <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/year-end-tax-policy-priority-expand-the-child-tax-credit-for-the-19-million">19 million children</a> whose parents don’t have enough income to meet the requirement for receiving the full benefit, while the US retains some of the highest child <a href="https://osf.io/su2fm/">poverty</a> and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/america-mortality-rate-guns-health/673799/">mortality</a> rates among peer countries.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mqTGJA">
The consensus excluding the poorest Americans from some forms of government assistance through phase-ins held until President Joe Biden’s 2021 <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2021/3/6/22315536/stimulus-package-passes-checks-unemployment">American Rescue Plan</a>. Its anti-poverty centerpiece was to cut phase-ins from the existing CTC and crank up the payment, creating what’s known as the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/8/30/23317834/child-tax-credit-ctc-ira">expanded CTC</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="I7B4Mi">
The results were historic. Over the course of 2021, <a href="https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/democrats/issue-briefs?id=CD9DF1DD-39AF-4F31-9401-B2687B593E59">child poverty was cut nearly in half</a>, and the long-running fear at the heart of the American welfare system — that unconditional aid would discourage work — <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/gains-from-expanded-child-tax-credit-outweigh-overstated-employment-worries#no-meaningful-employment-loss-in-cbpp-anchor">never came to pass</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zVmGE9">
Then, to the dismay of advocates and recipients alike, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/167108/democrats-joe-manchin-child-care-tax-credit-bbb">blocked</a> the Democratic Party’s effort to make the expansion permanent, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sen-joe-manchin-suggests-child-tax-credit-payments/story?id=81865740">fearing</a>, among other familiar concerns like the cost, that recipients would just buy drugs (<a href="https://www.cbpp.org/blog/9-in-10-families-with-low-incomes-are-using-child-tax-credits-to-pay-for-necessities-education#:~:text=Poverty%20and%20Inequality-,9%20in%2010%20Families%20With%20Low%20Incomes%20Are%20Using%20Child,to%20Pay%20for%20Necessities%2C%20Education">the data</a> shows that recipients spent the money on food, clothes, utilities, rent, and education). Come 2022, phase-ins returned to the CTC, approximately <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/610831a16c95260dbd68934a/t/63732dd8efcf0e5c76aea26e/1668492763484/Child-Tax-Credit-Research-Roundup-One-Year-On-CPSP-2022.pdf">3.7 million children</a> were immediately thrust back into poverty in January, and the rest of the year saw the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/9/21/23882353/child-poverty-expanded-child-tax-credit-census-welfare-inflation-economy-data">sharpest rise in the history</a> of recorded child poverty rates.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1eABFc">
Phase-ins have long had critics <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/12/03/why-do-democrats-love-trapezoids/">across</a> the political aisle, but their arguments have generally been grounded in small-scale pilot <a href="https://www.stocktondemonstration.org/">experiments</a>, appeals to morality, or even philosophizing about <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/rutger-bregman/humankind/9780316418553/?lens=little-brown">human nature</a>. Now that we have real-world evidence from a nationwide, year-long experiment, the expanded CTC’s success should ignite efforts to roll back phase-ins across the board. That also means cutting them from the CTC’s sister program, the <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/policy-basics-the-earned-income-tax-credit">earned income tax credit</a> (EITC), which phases in as a supplement to wages for low-income Americans and helps <a href="https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/individuals/earned-income-tax-credit/eitc-reports-and-statistics">about 31 million Americans</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="tadFgA">
The expanded CTC is estimated to have reduced child poverty rates anywhere from <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/20/opinion/child-tax-credit-basic-income.html">29 percent</a> to <a href="https://www.povertycenter.columbia.edu/publication/2021-child-poverty-reduction">43 percent</a>, with the <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/earnings-requirement-would-undermine-child-tax-credits-poverty-reducing-impact">vast majority</a> of that drop attributable to removing phase-ins. Extending that success to include the EITC would cut child poverty by an estimated <a href="https://d12t4t5x3vyizu.cloudfront.net/tlaib.house.gov/uploads/2023/04/End-Child-Poverty-One-Pager.pdf">64 percent</a>.
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="A bar chart demonstrates how child poverty could be additionally reduced by up to 64% if the child tax credit and the earned income tax credit were combined without the phase-in requirement. " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/w16s3S6APYf9k82Vnzy2xp2cvLI=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25093375/10.png"/>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="q9Y6VT">
Child poverty rates in the US <a href="https://www.povertycenter.columbia.edu/historical-spm-data">rarely budge</a> more than 1 or 2 percent per year, making any of these approaches a pretty big deal. And even so, they still fall well short of eliminating child poverty outright, which should be the policy objective. Poverty, as the Atlantic’s Derek Thompson <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2018/03/welfare-childhood/555119/">wrote</a> in 2018, is a “slow-motion trauma” presently being inflicted on <a href="https://www.childtrends.org/blog/5-million-more-children-experienced-poverty-in-2022-than-in-2021-following-expiration-of-covid-era-economic-relief">9 million American children</a>. But cutting phase-ins across both programs would establish a powerful channel for dialing down an avoidable source of trauma, should this new evidence shift the political winds.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BWTPWD">
“I’ve been grappling with the long arc of the work,” said Aisha Nyandoro, creator of America’s longest-running guaranteed income program, <a href="https://springboardto.org/magnolia-mothers-trust/">the Magnolia Mother’s Trust</a>. “The time that it actually takes to shift narratives and perspectives. How do you couple that with the immediate urgency for change, when you know individuals are the ones suffering? How do you hold the urgency of now, while also pushing for the long arc of the work?”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0r8YTU">
We could start by eliminating phase-ins for good.
</p>
<h3 id="jyM11b">
A brief history of phase-ins
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="npE9oD">
Through the 1960s and early ’70s, just about everyone agreed that the welfare system wasn’t working as it should. The number of recipients <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.17310/ntj.2000.4S1.01">tripled</a> within a decade as racial segregation began to ease, stoking a racist <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/6/20/11789988/clintons-welfare-reform">backlash</a> against welfare dollars that could, opponents argued, deter Black mothers from the kind of labor — maids, nannies, agricultural work — that was expected of them.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gX1H9y">
At the same time, left-wing organizers — particularly from the “<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2019/06/09/730684320/the-mothers-who-fought-to-radically-reimagine-welfare">welfare rights movement</a>” — thought too many people were still left out. They sought to expand eligibility by flooding the system with new recipients until deep reform was necessary. Though that appetite for reform was widely shared, the vision for what would come next forked sharply in two different directions.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fylIlm">
Left-wing organizers and President <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/books/98/10/04/specials/moynihan-income.html">Richard Nixon alike</a> wanted <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/4/28/23044957/ubi-guaranteed-income-baltimore-new-york-mississippi">guaranteed income</a>-style programs, where anyone <a href="https://www.vox.com/poverty">in poverty</a> would receive full benefits, no matter their employment status or income.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rUHIS9">
Critics like Sen. Russell Long, a Democrat from Louisiana and chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, feared that <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R44825.pdf">giving full benefits to people without a job or other income</a> would reward idleness instead of work. Instead, he proposed a “work bonus” <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1974/12/15/archives/bonus-for-work-gains-in-senate-400-a-year-in-funds.html">plan</a> that passed as the EITC <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R44825.pdf">in 1975</a>, the first program to exclude the poorest Americans from government assistance by phasing in benefits alongside earned income. In other words, phase-ins were born.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Pb140y">
Since their inception, the purpose of phase-ins was never to directly reduce poverty. Instead, as a <a href="https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/tax1.pdf">1975 Finance Committee report</a> stated, their “most significant objective” was “encouraging people to obtain employment, reducing the unemployment rate and reducing the welfare rolls.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RDmDPV">
The following year, Ronald Reagan’s presidential campaign swept this anti-welfare logic into the political mainstream. Through <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1976/02/15/archives/welfare-queen-becomes-issue-in-reagan-campaign-hitting-a-nerve-now.html">campaign rhetoric</a> that focused on now-debunked ideas like “<a href="https://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/history/2013/12/linda_taylor_welfare_queen_ronald_reagan_made_her_a_notorious_american_villain.html">welfare queens</a>” and baseless claims of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/08/just-how-wrong-is-conventional-wisdom-about-government-fraud/278690/">widespread welfare fraud</a>, he burned the fear of welfare dependency into the national consciousness.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="goCHOo">
Despite the lack of evidence of fraud, the sentiment took root, to the point that Democratic President Bill Clinton enacted <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/6/20/11789988/clintons-welfare-reform">welfare reforms in 1996</a> that sought to “end welfare as we know it” by introducing a series of work requirements to receive benefits. The American safety net, in other words, had been remade around the logic of phase-ins.
</p>
<h3 id="tTKX23">
Phase-ins, explained
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kVMVMS">
So how do phase-ins work, exactly? Phase-ins adjust benefit levels based on income, which is determined through tax filing. Accordingly, the benefits are disbursed as an annual tax credit (with the exception of a portion of the expanded CTC benefit).
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wSfNp4">
While work requirements apply to government programs like <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23641608/snap-food-insecurity-food-stamps-poverty">SNAP</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/6/19/18691249/medicaid-work-requirements-health-care-reform-study-nejm">Medicaid</a>, phase-ins apply to tax credits like the CTC and EITC, which together comprised over <a href="https://www.urban.org/features/six-charts-about-federal-spending-children-during-pandemic#:~:text=These%20expenditures%20totaled%20%24239%20billion,to%20%24160%20billion%20in%202021.">$160 billion in federal anti-poverty spending</a> in 2020.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WdICtJ">
If you’re a visual person, think of phase-ins as the left-hand slope of a trapezoid. (“Trapezoidal programs” are what policy wonks call programs that both phase in as income rises and phase <em>out</em> as income surpasses an upper threshold.) For example, here’s the trapezoid for a household with one child receiving the federal EITC:
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="A chart with a trapezoidal shape demonstrates how benefits rise, plateau, and decrease after reaching the maximum amount of benefits relative to income. " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/F_cArW5VYzBCLiya5fRzKV5tFg8=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25092953/EITC_real_done.png"/>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="sbOSCT">
At zero dollars of income, there are zero dollars in benefits. Then, as earned income rises, benefits phase in on an upward slope, until reaching a maximum amount. Then, after a plateau, the benefits begin phasing out to avoid giving money to people who don’t need it.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3DAjrG">
Getting rid of phase-ins would mean starting the maximum benefit right at zero dollars of earned income. Since the expiration of the federal expanded CTC, 11 states have <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy/2023/7/27/23806695/child-tax-credit-ctc-poverty-families-refundable">passed smaller versions</a> of the program without phase-ins, <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/vermont-families-eligible-for-full-state-child-tax-credit-whether-or-not-they-have-earned-income">like Vermont</a>:
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="A chart with a more rectangular shape visually represents how poor parents would benefit more from a full state CTC rather than a phased-in CTC." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2cu2mLJncDgcDFySG7FfTFEm86k=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25092957/Vermont_real_done.png"/>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ReYjro">
See the difference? If you’re a parent making $0 in income in Vermont, you get the full state CTC ($1,000 per child under 6) — as opposed to the $0 you would get from the phased-in federal CTC.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aAfkHb">
By design, phase-ins are very good at reducing the welfare rolls by excluding millions in deep poverty from receiving benefits. The logic of phase-ins assumes that kicking someone off welfare will lead them back to work. That isn’t always the case, nor should it be. The majority of non-workers who benefit from welfare are “people who cannot or should not be working,” <a href="https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2018/09/18/the-best-way-to-eradicate-poverty-welfare-not-jobs/">writes</a> Matt Bruenig, founder of the <a href="https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/">People’s Policy Project</a> think tank. They include <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy/2023/3/12/23631282/child-labor-laws-huckabee-sanders-republicans">children</a>, students, caregivers, the elderly, and those with disabilities, who together <a href="https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2018/09/18/the-best-way-to-eradicate-poverty-welfare-not-jobs/">made up roughly 86 percent of non-workers</a> in 2017. Forcing these groups into the labor market often <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/18/opinion/theres-no-natural-dignity-in-work.html">looks like a policy failure</a>, not success.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1KYMPi">
Even if we grant, for the sake of argument, that using phase-ins to incentivize work is a good idea, the evidence that it actually raises employment <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/10/3/20895338/earned-income-tax-credit-2019-henrik-kleven">is shaky</a>, and growing more so. The strongest argument <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/85/2/394/57401/The-Effects-of-Time-Limits-the-EITC-and-Other?redirectedFrom=fulltext#.V09DhJMrJLA">in favor</a> rested on a rise in employment following the 1993 EITC expansion. But <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w26405">a recent paper</a> by Princeton economist Henrik Kleven argues that, actually, the EITC <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/10/3/20895338/earned-income-tax-credit-2019-henrik-kleven">isn’t what increased employment at all</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="EKsRLo">
“The evidence [supporting phase-ins] is really based on this one expansion of the EITC that coincided with a very hot <a href="https://www.vox.com/economy">economy</a>, welfare reform, skyrocketing incarceration rates, and changing cultural attitudes about women’s work,” said <a href="https://jainfamilyinstitute.org/our-team/jack-landry/">Jack Landry</a>, a research associate at the Jain Family Institute (JFI), a nonpartisan applied research organization that focuses on guaranteed income. “There isn’t another piece of evidence to go to for this.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="sZ3YHK">
The matter remains unsettled among economists, who are still <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w26405">trading</a> <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w28041">blows</a>, trying to hone in on exactly <a href="https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/overselling-the-earned-income-tax-credit">how many — if any</a> — single mothers the EITC might’ve pushed into work in 1993. This debate occurs against the backdrop of <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/d139/bc56f19d748cdabbd233b59c78094e5566f8.pdf">the literature on unconditional transfers</a> at large, which finds no significant employment effects.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1OlEWd">
What is not contested is the huge anti-poverty effect of dropping phase-ins, at least in the short term. Maybe an extra $300 per month empowers a few mothers on the margin to work an hour or two less per week, and maybe 10 years down the line, we’d see behavioral responses that don’t show up in the program’s first year — is that “risk” worth rejecting a policy design that can cut child poverty by up to 64 percent today?
</p>
<h3 id="cRBixQ">
Dropping phase-ins was almost solely responsible for the expanded CTC’s dramatic success
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lhx5x2">
When Congress passed the expanded CTC in 2021, it made a number of tweaks in addition to dropping phase-ins, like including 17-year-olds and making half of the benefit available as monthly payments. And it made one other big change: raising the max annual benefit from $2,000 per child to between $3,000 and $3,600, depending on the child’s age.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GH3sMN">
You might suspect that increasing the payment by at least 50 percent played a significant role in the extra poverty reduction. But as it turns out, it didn’t. Independent reports from both JFI and the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) have found that the boosted impact of the expanded CTC was <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/earnings-requirement-would-undermine-child-tax-credits-poverty-reducing-impact">almost entirely driven</a> by the absence of phase-ins.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9sCw5M">
The <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/recovery-package-should-permanently-include-families-with-low-incomes-in-full">CBPP report</a> estimated that if the temporary expansion were made permanent, it would lift 4.1 million children above the poverty line in one go. Of those 4.1 million, raising the payment level would account for 543,000 children; the remaining 3.6 million children lifted from poverty would come thanks to the absence of phase-ins.
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Bar chart that visually represents the 3.6 million children that would be lifted from poverty if phase-ins were removed, compared to only 543,000 children if phase-ins remained but benefit amounts were increased and 17-year-olds were included. " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qQj1YCK6aeIgI9dwnIbi_mVzzjE=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25092966/Bar_real_done.png"/>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yXepZb">
<a href="https://jainfamilyinstitute.org/analysis-of-full-refundability-of-the-child-tax-credit-without-expansion/">JFI’s report</a> goes into more detail about the relative contributions of each possible tweak to the CTC. It compares not only the anti-poverty implications of eliminating phase-ins and raising benefit levels relative to the original CTC, but also the costs of each.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="q6uBxp">
The JFI report found that if you were to keep the bigger check and bring back the phase-ins, child poverty would only drop by 7 percent, and <a href="https://poverty.ucdavis.edu/faq/what-deep-poverty">deep child poverty</a> by just 2 percent — all for an extra cost of $45 billion per year.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3dmnRm">
If you flip it, though — if you get rid of the phase-ins but let the max benefit drop back to $2,000 — you still get a 19 percent drop in overall child poverty and a 32 percent drop in deep child poverty, all for a comparatively modest $17 billion.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wgYSUq">
In other words, cutting phase-ins is more than twice as effective at reducing poverty compared to increasing the benefit amount, and costs less than half as much.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="EAj1qe">
Another <a href="https://jainfamilyinstitute.org/reducing-refundability-of-the-child-tax-credit-assessing-poverty-impacts-and-trade-offs/">2021 JFI report</a> estimated that if you were to keep the benefit at $3,600 but let the phase-ins return, child poverty would increase by 53 percent, driven by all the recipients who would no longer be eligible because they don’t earn enough to qualify. When the Census Bureau released its <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-280.html">poverty statistics for 2022</a>, the first full year without the expanded CTC, the JFI estimate looked, if anything, modest. After policymakers let the expanded CTC expire, bringing back phase-ins and lowering the max payment, <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/9/21/23882353/child-poverty-expanded-child-tax-credit-census-welfare-inflation-economy-data">child poverty rose by 139 percent</a>, the sharpest increase ever recorded.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qSYtLT">
Landry, a co-author on both JFI reports, explained that cutting phase-ins is so much more effective because the poverty rate is held down by precisely those who phase-ins exclude.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bFIA5J">
“And it’s not just about parents who aren’t in the workforce. It’s also about parents who have some earnings, but don’t have enough earnings to qualify for that full CTC,” he said. “Increasing the benefit amount doesn’t help them because they’re still on the phase-in.”
</p>
<h3 id="gGbZTN">
So why do some analysts still argue for phase-ins?
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Awpl8M">
In late 2021, when the extended CTC was up for renewal, 448 economists signed <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/16/over-400-economists-letter-favor-extending-300-dollar-child-tax-credits.html">an open letter</a> supporting the program. But a small, vocal group of experts is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/opinion/child-allowance-credit-romney.html">still concerned</a> that an expanded CTC and similar programs could discourage work, a narrative that continues to have <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/04/manchin-wont-support-enhanced-child-tax-credit-without-work-requirement.html">significant influence</a> in Washington.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5s2zoe">
A few weeks before the expanded CTC was set to expire, amid <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/21/opinion/child-tax-credit-poverty.html">calls</a> to make the program permanent, Scott Winship, director of poverty studies at the <a href="https://www.aei.org/">American Enterprise Institute</a>, made the case against removing phase-ins <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/20/opinion/child-tax-credit-basic-income.html?partner=slack&amp;smid=sl-share">in the New York Times</a>. The crux: that short-term benefits would be overshadowed by long-term consequences. “Giving the same amount to parents regardless of whether they work will cause some parents to stop working,” Winship argued, resulting in a long-term drop in employment that would ultimately counteract the short-term poverty reduction.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2V1Ir7">
Winship was unsurprised that his fears of parents choosing to work less <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/gains-from-expanded-child-tax-credit-outweigh-overstated-employment-worries#:~:text=(Full%20refundability%20allows%20families%20with,Labor%20Statistics%20(BLS)%20data.">didn’t show up</a> during the expanded CTC. It only lasted for one year and was recognized all the while as a temporary program. “These kinds of behavioral effects take time to set in,” he writes. In the long-term, after a decade or a generation of the program being in place, that’s when he would expect to see, as <a href="https://americancompass.org/oren-cass/">Oren Cass</a>, executive director of the conservative think-tank American Compass, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/opinion/child-allowance-credit-romney.html">put it</a>, “communities in which labor-force dropout is widespread and widely accepted.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="z10pVt">
Advocates tend to neglect this point: Some behavioral changes that might not show up in response to a temporary program <em>would</em> arise in response to a permanent one. An extra $300 a month for one year may be nothing to quit your job over, but over a decade, or a generation, we might see hidden effects arise. This is part of the challenge guaranteed income pilots currently face: <a href="https://works.bepress.com/widerquist/120/">There is a limit</a> to what small-scale, finite experiments can tell us about a permanent national policy.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="z8vu1x">
Long-term speculation, however, can go both ways. The generational impacts of unconditional transfers could just as well lead to <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w25538">long-term investments in</a> <a href="https://www.economicpossibility.org/insights/nit-increased-the-number-of-adults-pursuing-continuing-education-in-seattle-washi">education</a> and skills training, <a href="https://www.economicpossibility.org/insights/uninsured-risk-from-leaving-wage-employment-is-a-primary-barrier-to-entrepreneurs">support entrepreneurship</a>, and actually <a href="https://www.economicpossibility.org/sources/do-financial-concerns-make-workers-less-productive">raise productivity</a> and <a href="https://www.economicpossibility.org/insights/cash-transfer-recipients-invested-26-cents-of-every-peso-transferred-in-productiv">economic activity</a> in the long run, all of which would boost, instead of wipe out, poverty reduction.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YzxyW7">
In 2018, researchers from Washington University in St. Louis <a href="https://academic.oup.com/swr/article-abstract/42/2/73/4956930?redirectedFrom=fulltext&amp;login=false">estimated</a> that childhood poverty costs the US $1.03 trillion per year, or 5.4 percent of the GDP. They found that every dollar spent on reducing child poverty would save the public 7 dollars from the economic costs of poverty.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="CFfBHh">
Results from <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/10/13/23914745/basic-income-radical-economy-poverty-capitalism-taxes">basic income</a> pilots across the US also stand in contrast to Winship’s concern. “Our moms get the guaranteed income and not only do they continue to work, they level up their work,” Nyandoro, who runs the nation’s longest-running guaranteed income program, told me. “They’re able to move from jobs to careers. They’re able to go back to school. They’re able to get out of debt.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="IHIHKv">
The most recent evidence in favor of phase-ins Winship cites is <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w29366">a 2021 paper</a> by a group of economists from the University of Chicago, led by Kevin Corinth and Bruce Meyer. It predicted that making the CTC expansion permanent would spark a 1.5-million-person exodus from the labor force. As analysts <a href="https://twitter.com/besttrousers/status/1605239097815097347?s=20">were quick to point out</a>, however, the paper is based on a model that already assumes unconditional cash reduces work. Predicting work disincentives using a model that already assumes them tells us nothing about whether the assumption itself is tethered to reality.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YUU4XN">
Corinth and Meyer have since responded to <a href="https://twitter.com/HilaryHoynes/status/1446164066511167512?s=20">criticism of their work disincentive assumptions</a>, arguing that they fall <a href="https://cpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/voices.uchicago.edu/dist/a/3122/files/2021/10/Note-on-Participation-Elasticities_10_21_2021.pdf">well within the range used in other studies</a>. These academic debates will continue, but in the meantime, where should the burden of proof lie?
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5IX9Dj">
Eliminating phase-ins from the CTC was a massive anti-poverty success and had <a href="https://www.povertycenter.columbia.edu/publication/2022/child-tax-credit/research-roundup-one-year-on">no short-term negative employment effects</a>. Recipients <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/blog/9-in-10-families-with-low-incomes-are-using-child-tax-credits-to-pay-for-necessities-education">spent the extra few hundred bucks on necessities</a>, from food and clothing to shelter and utilities. Even <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f03fd142e430f23993da413/t/6166fc0581c27751aabc40ac/1634139152158/CTC+Survey+Report.pdf?ref=ubi-guide">small businesses voiced their support</a> on the grounds that it would boost spending and entrepreneurship.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3WUwQt">
On the other hand, a minority of skeptics retain speculative concerns that a few generations down the line, newfound consequences <em>might</em> overshadow these benefits.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="AXbX2C">
According to Halah Ahmad, JFI’s former lead researcher for policy, these policy debates won’t resolve on the basis of evidence alone. “That’s something that a lot of research organizations are engaging with now,” Ahmad told me, “this question of how much further we can get with evidence, when we know that narrative eats evidence for lunch.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="8bzu30">
She also raised the idea of policy feedback loops, where the assumptions baked into existing government programs shape our expectations, like self-fulfilling prophecies. Phase-ins convey that only parents with jobs deserve to receive the benefit for their children. “But in Europe, where [unconditional] child allowances have been around for a lot longer,” she said, “there’s a different assumption. Why would you put children in a worse-off position because of the labor market outcomes of their parents?”
</p>
<h3 id="5pdVBS">
The CTC worked better without phase-ins; the EITC would too
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iZBbOO">
The expanded CTC’s failure to generate sufficient political momentum has left advocates <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/12/child-tax-credit-democrats-inflation-postmaterialism/672543/">wondering what’s next</a>. “There was this incomparable policy moment when you had this abundance of evidence but somehow no political will,” <a href="https://jainfamilyinstitute.org/our-team/halah/">Ahmad</a> said.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FabtYj">
One option is to go bigger. Policy feedback theory <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0958928712471224">suggests</a> that the more people who benefit from a government program, the larger the base of support it generates. Eliminating phase-ins from the CTC expanded the base of recipients, but evidently not enough to build sufficient political support. So why stop there? Every <a href="https://www.vox.com/social-policy">social policy</a> that uses a phase-in is an opportunity to lift more Americans from poverty by removing it. Which brings us back to the EITC, the low-income wage supplement, where phase-ins began, and where their elimination could do a lot of good.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OrnXcB">
“Many Democrats spoke eloquently about the injustices of phasing in the CTC, but then decided to go ahead and continue phasing in the EITC, despite the fact that EITC and CTC are basically the exact same benefit,” wrote <a href="https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2021/03/08/where-do-we-go-from-here-on-tax-credits/">Bruenig</a>, founder of the People’s Policy Project.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WXsJ85">
In April, Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) reintroduced a bill that extends the success of the expanded CTC to the EITC: <a href="https://d12t4t5x3vyizu.cloudfront.net/tlaib.house.gov/uploads/2023/02/TLAIB_010_xml.pdf">the End Child Poverty Act</a> (ECPA), which replaces the entire CTC and the child provisions of the EITC with a universal child benefit of $393 per month. No phase-ins. People’s Policy Project <a href="https://d12t4t5x3vyizu.cloudfront.net/tlaib.house.gov/uploads/2023/04/End-Child-Poverty-One-Pager.pdf">estimates</a> that ECPA would cut child poverty by 64 percent and deep child poverty by 70 percent if signed into law.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GCjO1h">
That would leave the non-child provisions of the EITC (a modest <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/policy-basics-the-earned-income-tax-credit">$600 or so</a> per year, at maximum) in place, and still subject to phase-ins. But something interesting happens if you remove phase-ins from the whole EITC: It <a href="https://racepowerpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Guaranteed-Income-for-the-21st-Century.pdf">becomes a guaranteed income</a>. Then, you could adjust the payout to set the income floor across the entire economy, with the universal child benefit layered on top for the extra expenses of having children.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YneL0J">
Unconditional anti-poverty policies would mark a significant shift from the safety net of the past few decades. But the year-long experiment with eliminating phase-ins was the largest signal yet that they work, at least in the short term. And in the long term, tenuous concerns over what might happen generations down the line do not justify leaving millions of children in avoidable poverty today.
</p></li>
<li><strong>Wages are rising. Jobs are plentiful. Nobody’s happy.</strong> -
<figure>
<img alt="A man in a suit wears a paper bag on his head with a frowning face painted on." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/WyEedNMhH2gQQw7oOyvo0PsEoyQ=/119x0:2004x1414/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72883775/GettyImages_474749946.0.jpg"/>
<figcaption>
American workers: doing well, hating everything. | RichVintage via Getty Images
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
It’s a good time to be a worker and a bad time to be a consumer — the problem is most people are both.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="tiTqEs">
Explaining the state of the American <a href="https://www.vox.com/economy">economy</a> at the moment is a conundrum. The labor market is good — as is much of the economy — and people say that everything is terrible.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uKVGjr">
The past couple of years have been a solid stretch for workers in America. Unemployment is low. People who want to find jobs, by and large, can. Wages are up — even accounting for inflation over the past several months, and <a href="https://twitter.com/arindube/status/1724147813766881715?s=20">especially for people at the lower ends of the income spectrum</a>. Workers really have been able to <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2022/12/15/23505303/workers-2022-quits-remote-work-unions">flex their muscles</a>, whether that means quitting their jobs or unionizing or <a href="https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/8/2/23815980/hot-strike-summer-labor-union-actors-writers-drivers">going on strike</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="m2gxC1">
And yet, amid all this, <a href="https://www.suffolk.edu/news-features/news/2023/09/14/14/51/sbs-usat-econ-poll-2023">poll</a> after <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/economy/inflation-economy-polling.html">poll</a> shows that Americans say the economy is absolutely awful (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-09-14/economists-eye-retail-sales-for-clues-to-consumer-resilience?sref=qYiz2hd0">what Americans <em>do</em></a><em> </em>in this supposedly awful economy is a different thing, which we’ll get to later). That such a strong labor market isn’t making a dent, opinion-wise, is a little weird. It seems like this jobs landscape should make the public feel better. So why do people say it doesn’t?
</p>
<div class="c-float-right">
<div id="yhPUiy">
<div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="o4CGbl">
There are some obvious answers as to why Americans are so disgruntled. <a href="https://www.vox.com/money/2023/11/8/23951098/economy-inflation-prices-job-market-sticker-shock">Everything is super expensive</a>. The pandemic hangover is persistent — long covid isn’t just physical, it’s emotional. The government supports doled out in recent years — expanded unemployment insurance, the <a href="https://www.vox.com/student-loan-debt">student loan</a> pause, the child tax credit — have expired. The country’s political system <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics">is not exactly working spectacularly</a>, not to mention the sense of dread heading into the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2024-elections">2024 elections</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ngeMgw">
But what if <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fullemployment.asp">full employment</a> — meaning a labor market firing on all cylinders — or something close to it, like we’ve got now, just isn’t that popular, at least in its current form?
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lU63uG">
Some elements of it clearly are. People generally like higher pay, lower unemployment, and <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/510281/unions-strengthening.aspx">unions</a>. But it’s not that simple — the American public isn’t on cloud nine over the state of affairs.
</p>
<h3 id="q6oaKO">
Hot job market, cold hearts
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="VZetl2">
To get this out of the way, there is absolutely evidence that full employment in other contexts has gone over much better. In the recent past, the United States largely had a full employment economy in the pre-Covid Trump era in 2018 and 2019. People generally <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/20/politics/cnn-poll-economy-2020-matchups/index.html">felt pretty good about that</a>. There is a partisanship element to all of this — when a Republican is in the White House, Republican voters say everything is awesome and Democratic voters say everything is terrible, and vice versa, <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article/105/3/493/100979/Partisan-Bias-Economic-Expectations-and-Household">even if they don’t really change their spending</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ONEYmc">
“The reason we think it’s puzzling, why people are unhappy now, is because the evidence that a full employment economy makes people happy is overwhelming,” said <a href="https://fordschool.umich.edu/faculty/justin-wolfers">Justin Wolfers</a>, an economist at the University of Michigan.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="IhUbIR">
Right now, people are frustrated by inflation that, while cooling, is still higher than it has been in many people’s lifetimes, and they’re still missing 2019 prices. Consumers and businesses are dealing with higher interest rates that have come as a result of the Federal Reserve’s attempt to tame inflation, meaning items such as mortgages and car loans are more expensive. All of the noise coming from that can drown out the <a href="https://www.vox.com/23815490/joe-biden-economy-bidenomics-jobs-inflation-2024-election">positive aspects of the economy</a>, including the labor market, which not everyone experiences uniformly.
</p>
<div class="c-float-right">
<aside id="ZlhqZG">
<q>“There is a recognition that a strong labor market is great for workers but not necessarily good for businesses”</q>
</aside>
</div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OOUCbL">
“Full employment is so good for the economy. It raises wages, it brings people into the labor force who have been traditionally left behind, it is an extremely equalizing force,” said <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/12/us/politics/senior-biden-aide-who-quietly-helped-shape-economic-agenda-is-leaving.html">Bharat Ramamurti</a>, former deputy director of the National Economic Council. But that equalizing force might be part of the perception problem. “I think a lot of people respond to that negatively because they’re on the other side of that equation.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="p2UJ6t">
<em>[Related: </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/money/2023/11/8/23951098/economy-inflation-prices-job-market-sticker-shock"><em>The problem isn’t inflation. It’s prices.</em></a><em>] </em>
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pAvq3p">
This type of labor market means that businesses big and small have to compete more for workers, which they don’t love and <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2022/03/23/companies-still-say-they-cant-find-enough-workers-whats-going-on/">complain about loudly</a>. In turn, it means consumers might have to wait more or have a worse time at a restaurant, cafe, or hotel, because staffing just isn’t what it used to be. That latte <a href="https://www.vox.com/money/23896266/latte-price-pumpkin-spice-starbucks-coffee-inflation">isn’t only pricier</a>, but it takes longer, and customers are now being <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2022/10/7/23389885/square-toast-tipping-retail-tipflation-guilt">asked to tip</a> more often as companies try to keep workers happy and subsidize their pay without cutting into their own bottom lines. This labor market means more “Help Wanted” signs, which are generally a good thing, though that’s not always intuitive.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ktHNt1">
The flip side of full employment is not enough workers. Companies need workers just as much as workers need companies. When employers say, “Oh, it’s so hard to find good help these days,” that means better pay for their employees (though it also <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/23341744/worker-burnout-great-resignation-reshuffle-quit">sometimes means shorter staffing</a>). The public hears the former voice more often and louder than it does latter.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iUoD19">
“There is a recognition that a strong labor market is great for workers but not necessarily good for businesses,” said <a href="https://src.isr.umich.edu/people/joanne-hsu/">Joanne Hsu</a>, who runs consumer surveys for the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research. “People tell us that they’ve been hearing bad news about labor markets with respect to business conditions.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hujwZA">
The Michigan survey’s <a href="https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/get-chart.php?y=2023&amp;m=9&amp;n=24br&amp;d=ylch&amp;f=pdf&amp;k=fd60cb3906a9d7b6cef40f23d2cc1b3f7dd03fdcf1b5b2f50a89201358fb2367">current readings</a> find that people report hearing more negative news about employment than they did in the mid to late 2010s. “A surprising share of consumers are mentioning labor markets as a topic of negative news about the economy,” Hsu said.
</p>
<h3 id="LuVHpr">
Why do people feel like this? A lot of it is perception
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0vt6uq">
It may be the case that people should say they feel better about the economy than they do, but nobody can tell anybody how to feel about things or say the reality they’re living isn’t, well, real. As to why full employment isn’t breaking through, sentiment-wise, there are likely a number of factors in play.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9ED7oh">
Partisanship and negative media bias play a role. Republicans aren’t going to say things are good when <a href="https://www.vox.com/joe-biden">Joe Biden</a> is in office, and apparently, Democrats have their own qualms, too. (Whether Democrats are actually mad about the economy or just nonplussed by Biden is an open question.) The media tells stories through the lens of business owners, CEOs, and investors, all of whom are less likely to love how hard it is to find workers; stories about the workers who are benefiting tend to be less plentiful. Layoffs make headlines, <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2023/1/19/23561276/tech-layoffs-finance-microsoft-amazon-goldman-white-collar-recession">especially when they’re at big names in media and tech</a> — and even when they’re a teeny tiny sliver of the labor market. Social media often thrives on negative content.
</p>
<div class="c-float-right">
<aside id="eM9pyU">
<q>“Making it” in America today doesn’t feel very made.</q>
</aside>
</div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="chmtgU">
Inflation is, of course, painful and an enormous mood dampener. It’s not clear how much higher wages have played into higher prices (the answer appears to be likely <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/07/business/economy/wages-prices.html">not very much</a>). Still, consumers worry that higher pay for workers and organized labor making more demands could lead to higher prices on items ranging from their cars to their <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-chickfila-wage/fact-check-16-50-starting-wage-chick-fil-a-poster-doesnt-reflect-company-wide-policy-idUSL1N2QX19S/">Chick-fil-A sandwiches</a>. Inflation also feels like a thing happening <em>to </em>people outside of their control. When things go well for people at work — when they get promotions and raises — they often attribute it to their unique circumstances and talents, not macroeconomic conditions.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qHxD6y">
In a robust labor market like this one, many people feel secure about their jobs and confident about their prospects. At the same time, they’re seeing businesses scrounging around for employees. They can’t get a plumber to come fix their sink, their favorite restaurant has shorter hours, or their local vet clinic has completely shut down. “When you run into that, then you see the downside of the tight labor market, and I think this is particularly acute because people with jobs — which is most people who want jobs right now — have money to spend, and they can’t always spend it in the ways that they want,” Hsu said. “Even good news can be spun into bad news.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="DD2AVA">
Given the strength of the current labor market, it’s fair to think things should feel better. Many people (though not everyone) are making quite a bit more than they were four years ago. It can feel almost more frustrating that your job is finally paying you well, you’re in the spot you wanted to be in, and you still can’t afford things easily. Gas and groceries remain a pain. You finally got to take that vacation, but it was more than you expected to pay, and the service at the hotel was dismal. Moreover, full employment does not address how prohibitively expensive some major pillars of our economy are — <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/12/17/21024614/us-health-care-costs-medical-prices">health care</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/9/27/23356278/the-pandemic-child-care-inflation-crisis">child care</a>, <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/07/18/a-debate-is-under-way-about-the-cost-of-higher-education?ppccampaignID=&amp;ppcadID=&amp;ppcgclID=&amp;utm_medium=cpc.adword.pd&amp;utm_source=google&amp;ppccampaignID=17210591673&amp;ppcadID=&amp;utm_campaign=a.22brand_pmax&amp;utm_content=conversion.direct-response.anonymous&amp;gclid=CjwKCAiA3aeqBhBzEiwAxFiOBhnAYkzJCCEAY9X0GwpcfnX-C39QMTwK91_QtEe22ulMCv-d0I5xXBoCe4IQAvD_BwE&amp;gclsrc=aw.ds">higher education</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23278643/affordable-public-housing-inflation-renters-home">housing</a>. “Making it” in America today doesn’t feel very made.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PmOSN3">
“You need more than fully realized wages, you need many other pieces that comprise your cost of living to be significantly more affordable,” said <a href="https://rooseveltinstitute.org/authors/felicia-wong/">Felicia Wong</a>, president and CEO of the Roosevelt Institute, a progressive think tank. “The reason many of these things aren’t affordable is because their markets are so broken.”
</p>
<h3 id="NaKU98">
Even though people are saying the economy is bad, a lot of them aren’t acting like it
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="h8yOvs">
In conversations with economists, journalists, policymakers, and others who pay attention to the economy, one theme often comes up: The way people say they feel about the economy right now <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/09/07/the-pandemic-has-broken-a-closely-followed-survey-of-sentiment?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email">doesn’t line up with where the data, historically, would indicate it should</a>, or even with their own actions.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gwEk9h">
From 2019 to 2022, American families <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf">saw their net worth increase</a> and their incomes go up. While wages overall lagged inflation for much of the pandemic, that’s no longer the case, and they’re growing faster than prices are rising.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="trgAcg">
The economy <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31010/w31010.pdf">has seen wage compression</a> as low-wage workers, specifically, have been able to take advantage of the tight labor market. That <a href="https://www.vox.com/money/23770003/economy-job-market-rich-poor-middle-class-stocks">may cause some consternation</a> for more middle- and upper-middle-class Americans, who aren’t used to much economic discomfort and are accustomed to the gap between them and lower earners being bigger. (The gap between the ultra-rich and everyone else, of course, is much wider, which makes you wonder if an economy so unequal could ever feel that good.)
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2tkOnu">
<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/06/american-economy-negative-perception-inflation/661149/">As Derek Thompson at the Atlantic noted in 2022</a>, plenty of people say that their personal financial situations are okay and that even their local economies are plugging along, but then they say the national economy is trash.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RgXPSd">
<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/11/american-household-income-improvement-voter-sentiment/675959/">Many Americans are better off financially than they were pre-pandemic</a>, and many of them are acting like it, too. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/spending-consumers-inflation-economy-growth-federal-reserve-b1d34bc43a0da960a152911b7c230881">Consumers</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-durable-goods-orders-unexpectedly-rise-august-2023-09-27/">businesses</a> have kept spending. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/01/fact-sheet-president-biden-delivers-update-on-his-strategy-to-build-on-americas-small-business-boom-while-speak-mccarthy-and-house-republicans-threaten-to-harm-small-businesses-and-eliminat/#:~:text=Americans%20filed%20nearly%2010.5%20million,jobs%2C%20a%20near%20historic%20level.">New businesses have been created</a>. None of this is to say that all is hunky dory. If you’re trying to buy or sell your house right now, things are far from ideal. Credit card debt is on the rise. I cannot say this enough: Higher prices suck. Still, actions speak louder than words.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="cbrssW">
“If people were actually pessimistic about the future of the economy, they’d start saving, when in fact they’re spending like crazy,” Wolfers said. “If you look at the behaviors that would reflect the belief that the economy was good or bad, all of those behaviors suggest they’re incredibly optimistic, and they’re roughly as optimistic as you would expect based on things like the unemployment rate.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="EumzU6">
“If you just look at people’s actual spending habits, which I think is probably a fair measure of their actual view of their financial condition and where the actual economy is going, it is screaming that people feel very comfortable with where they think things are,” Ramamurti said. “We should evaluate conditions more by how people act rather than what they say.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uaDz6X">
The economy has been in an odd moment for years now, as has the way people feel about it. It’s not that full employment shouldn’t be a goal, or that it’s not a good thing, but depending on the context, it’s complicated — maybe a little more than, on paper, it would seem.
</p></li>
<li><strong>Why influencers with 7, 8, or 10 kids are having a moment</strong> -
<figure>
<img alt="An illustration with social media posts featuring families with many kids." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YkMv09WFYwXDmhvddwfNAyL1xGE=/240x0:1680x1080/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72883749/R3_Vox_Lede_InfluencerswithKids.0.png"/>
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Influncers like Hannah Neeleman, JD and Britney Lott, and the de la Motte family are gaining a following for content featuring their many kids. | Paige Vickers/Vox, TikTok: <span class="citation" data-cites="doughertydozen">@doughertydozen</span>, <span class="citation" data-cites="thehappycaravan">@thehappycaravan</span>, Instagram: <span class="citation" data-cites="the.happy.caravan">@the.happy.caravan</span>, <span class="citation" data-cites="ballerinafarm">@ballerinafarm</span>, <span class="citation" data-cites="americanfamilyroadtrip">@americanfamilyroadtrip</span>,
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Americans are having smaller families. Why are we obsessed with large ones?
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mbA0GH">
Hannah Neeleman, the Juilliard-trained dancer turned homesteading <a href="https://www.vox.com/influencers">influencer</a> better known as Ballerina Farm, announced in October that she was pregnant with her eighth child.
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Wearing a flowing prairie dress and a cozy-looking sweater, Neeleman appeared with her husband, Daniel, in <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CycxTPIufdj/">an Instagram video</a> shot in their rustic-chic Utah kitchen. She cradled her belly. He cradled a large bowl, which may or may not have been <a href="https://sarapetersen.substack.com/p/a-history-of-ballerina-farm-pregnancy">full of sourdough</a>.
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Neeleman, who posts beautifully lit videos of farm and family life (sometimes with a few <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CVZO8cJtqUB/">dance steps</a> thrown in) to her 7.3 million <a href="https://www.vox.com/instagram-news">Instagram</a> followers, isn’t the only influencer shouting out an addition to an already large family. JD and Britney Lott, who chronicle their adventures traveling in a bus with their seven kids, <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/Cw8xVQZOUM_/">posted in September</a> that an eighth was on the way. The de la Motte family, who regale <a href="https://www.vox.com/tiktok">TikTok</a> audiences with their <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZPR7wnfrJ/">string concerts</a>, <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CwAxhRAgXLJ/?hl=en">announced in August</a> that “Baby #11” was coming soon.
</p>
<div class="c-float-right">
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="A large family has a gender reveal party in a park. Text reads, “It’s a Girl!”" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cQgpPkcdLlpIZrBklP6D-6OwZ9Y=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25092024/Vox_Influencers_02.png"/> <cite>Amber de la Motte, Instagram: <span class="citation" data-cites="the.happy.caravan">@the.happy.caravan</span></cite>
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Amber de la Motte recently announced she is pregnant with her 11th child.
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Families like theirs — ones that could field a full baseball team — are racking up billions of views on TikTok and Instagram. The current vogue for 10-person family dances and morning routine videos for a brood of 12 is a product of the particular time in which we live, experts say. The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/05/us/us-birthrate-falls-covid.html">birthrate is falling</a>, having even one kid can be <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/11/01/child-care-costs-average-chart-inflation">ruinously expensive</a>, and long or unpredictable work hours limit the amount of time most people can spend with their families. The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/05/us/us-birthrate-falls-covid.html">average American woman</a> had three children in 1950, a number that has declined to about 1.6 today.
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In this landscape, watching videos of big families can be a way of gawking at an unfamiliar spectacle, soothing (or triggering) our own anxiety, and sampling a domestic experience many of us will never have. Viewed with a critical eye, these accounts can tell us something about what we value as a society — and what we need to value more highly.
</p>
<h3 id="WsIb16">
The rise of the big-family influencers
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JHuHOW">
American audiences have always had a fascination with big families, both real and fictional. They turned out in droves to see the 1959 musical — and 1965 film — <em>The Sound of Music</em>, about a plucky nun who becomes governess to the seven singing von Trapp children (both are <a href="https://www.archives.gov/publications/prologue/2005/winter/von-trapps-html">based on a true story</a>, and there were 10 kids, not seven). The 1948 novel <em>Cheaper by the Dozen </em>(also based on a <a href="https://www.vox.com/videos/2019/4/2/18292059/gilbreths-cheaper-dozen-real-family">true story</a>), about two “efficiency experts” who have 12 children, was adapted into a film in 1950, then again in 2003, then again in 2022.
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Real-life big families, from the <a href="https://time.com/5555131/dionne-quintuplets-kidfluencers/">Dionne quintuplets</a> (born in 1934) to the <a href="https://www.today.com/news/mccaughey-septuplets-turn-21-here-s-how-they-re-celebrating-t142906">McCaughey septuplets</a> (born in 1997), have also become subjects of cultural obsession. The reality show <em>Jon &amp; Kate Plus 8</em>, about a family with a set of twins and a set of sextuplets, premiered in 2007 and ran in some form for 10 years. <em>17 Kids and Counting</em> launched in 2008 and focused on Michelle and Jim Bob Duggar and their growing family. (The family would grow to 19 before the show was canceled in the wake of <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/5/27/8662907/josh-duggar-abuse">sexual abuse allegations against Josh Duggar</a>, the family’s eldest son.) And in 2009, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/style/octomom-kids-2018.html">Natalie Suleman</a> became a tabloid fixation after she gave birth to octuplets (she already had six other children).
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<div class="c-float-left">
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="A full fridge, text reads, “What My 11 Kids Ate Today.”" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QPyM8OdTzR42WoomrysoVe8twHc=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25092002/Vox_Influencers_03.png"/> <cite>Dougherty Dozen, TikTok: <span class="citation" data-cites="doughertydozen">@doughertydozen</span></cite>
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Alicia Dougherty’s videos of meals she prepares for her 11 kids are viewed by millions.
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In the past, a family needed to somehow catch the eye of network executives in order to get a reality show like <em>17 Kids and Counting</em>, said Laura Vanderkam, a time management expert and mother of five who has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/parenting/big-families.html">written about large families</a>. But now, someone like <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@doughertydozen?lang=en">Alicia Dougherty</a>, who posts TikTok videos of the meals she prepares for her 11 kids, can simply start uploading without barriers or gatekeepers.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Q1RqEU">
Not every parent with a TikTok account and a demanding kitchen routine will match Dougherty’s 6.2 million followers, but content about large families is undeniably popular. According to TikTok, the hashtag #bigfamily got 2.7 billion views in the past year, while #largefamily got 1.1 billion. “People are always fascinated by anyone who is countercultural,” Vanderkam said, and “we’re definitely at a moment of small families.”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1gt9ls">
Neeleman, for her part, has become a cottage industry and a <a href="https://annehelen.substack.com/p/the-edenic-allure-of-ballerinafarm">strand of cultural criticism</a> unto herself. A homesteading, homeschooling Mormon mom who <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/Cq3-Qgbutzg/?hl=en">quotes the Bible</a> and can usually be found feeding the livestock or gathering farm-fresh eggs with two or more kids in tow, <a href="https://www.thecut.com/2023/09/tradwife-content-influencers-conservative-ideology.html">she’s been called</a> “the ur-tradwife of Instagram.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iJ3jJH">
Neeleman is more mainstream influencer than true tradwife — short for traditional wife —adept at selling her brand to a <a href="https://www.thecut.com/2023/09/tradwife-content-influencers-conservative-ideology.html">wide audience</a> (though there is a significant overlap between big-family influencers and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/27/us/tradwife-1950s-nostalgia-tiktok-cec/index.html">tradwives</a>, many of whom eschew birth control and extol the virtues of having many kids).
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Dressed in earth tones and muted florals, she bakes, arranges flowers, and prepares dishes using her farm’s pork and beef, available for purchase on the <a href="https://ballerinafarm.com/collections/meat">Ballerina Farm website</a> alongside sourdough starter and a variety of branded merch. Her life, though “imperfect” in certain picturesque ways (flour on her apron, strands of hair escaping from her braid), always looks gorgeous, with perfect light, fresh lilacs, and kids who help with the chores. The implication is that one can raise seven (soon to be eight) children and barely break a sweat. “The lifestyle she portrays” could be described as “care work as elegance,” said <a href="https://homeculture.substack.com/">Meg Conley</a>, who writes about care, capitalism, and the home. (Ballerina Farm declined Vox’s request for comment in an unsigned email, explaining that “Hannah and Daniel have their hands full wrangling kids and cattle.”)
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Hannah Neeleman hangs a “Merry Christmas” banner in her kitchen while four kids play at her feet." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/VfjOzZNRksc_iJIigZ0sF8aV_j4=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25092012/Vox_Influencers_01.png"/> <cite>Hannah Neeleman, Instagram: <span class="citation" data-cites="ballerinafarm">@ballerinafarm</span></cite>
<figcaption>
Hannah Neeleman is known for her beautifully shot videos and crossover appeal.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kKPRPL">
On one level, the draw of content like Neeleman’s or Dougherty’s is pretty uncomplicated. “It’s just visually cool to look at lots of cute children,” Vanderkam said. The logistics of caring for those children can also be entertaining for their very extremity: Dougherty’s sped-up videos show her preparing a kiddie pool full of nachos or an entire table covered in spaghetti and meatballs. “Making one sandwich is not that interesting,” Vanderkam points out, but making 11 sandwiches at once is a bona fide spectacle.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7LYxj8">
There has always been an element of gawking in Americans’ interest in very large families. It’s in Suleman’s tabloid nickname, “Octomom,” and the <a href="https://centerforhealthjournalism.org/our-work/insights/media-should-stop-calling-nadya-suleman-octomom">constant criticism</a> she received after having octuplets. It’s in the <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CycxTPIufdj/c/17936067965746246/?hl=en">comments</a> on Neeleman’s recent pregnancy announcement, which, among the well-wishes, include responses like, “Don’t they watch the news, do they care for the environment, are they religious nuts? … Why oh why …”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1iP3Rt">
While some people may be hate-watching Neeleman’s blissful baking-with-baby videos, others are just trying to figure out how she makes it all work.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="112d6L">
For many, having even a small family can feel harder than ever. In a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/05/upshot/americans-are-having-fewer-babies-they-told-us-why.html">2018 Morning Consult/New York Times poll</a>, about a quarter of respondents said they had or were planning to have fewer kids than they ideally wanted. Of those, 64 percent cited the high cost of <a href="https://www.vox.com/child-care">child care</a> as a reason — and child care has <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/11/01/child-care-costs-average-chart-inflation">only grown more expensive</a> since. An ongoing <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/06/20/housing-shortage-prices-high">housing shortage</a>, including a <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy/2023/4/23/23686130/housing-apartments-family-yimby-nimby-zoning-suburbs">shortage of three- and four-bedroom apartments</a>, makes shelter a constant concern for many families. A lack of <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23585001/30th-anniversary-fmla-paid-leave-tammy-duckworth">paid leave</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/22321909/covid-19-pandemic-school-work-parents-remote">flexible work</a>, and <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23557282/afterschool-education-childcare-expanded-learning">after-school care</a> leaves millions of parents scrambling to balance paying the bills and picking up their kids. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2022/6/9/23159624/kids-covid-pandemic-formula-anxiety-2022">threats to children</a>, from school shootings to formula shortages to <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2023/1/27/23571263/2023-covid-19-flu-cold-rsv-cases-tripledemic">Covid and other viral illnesses</a>, seem to compound without end. “A lot of people feel that even having two kids is out of reach,” said Leslie Root, a demographer and postdoctoral research associate at the University of Colorado Boulder who has studied fertility.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kl4awM">
In this context, parents who feel overwhelmed with one or two children — or childfree people nervously contemplating the possibility of procreating — may turn to big-family influencers to find out how they are managing their lives, Vanderkam said.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rv6fOk">
These influencers can also project a kind of calm and satisfaction that can feel seductive in a frightening and confusing world. Root calls it “brazen well-being” — they appear to thrive despite the many forces that threaten to pull American families under. Like tradwives, they often present a return to the home and a particular version of the past as a remedy for the ills of the present.
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In <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/Cn6JY1BD2QM/?hl=en">one January video</a>, Neeleman takes three of her children out onto their <a href="https://annehelen.substack.com/p/the-edenic-allure-of-ballerinafarm">328-acre property</a> to milk the cows and ride a rocking horse in the spacious barn, then back to the airy, wood-paneled farmhouse where she strains the milk through cheesecloth and washes the milking pail to a high shine. “I enjoy my morning milkings flanked by my little daughters,” she writes in an Instagram caption. “Like a mother quail and her covey of offspring, we scurry down to the barnyard like schoolchildren late for class.”
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“By the end of the milking,” she concludes, “everyone is fed and happy.”
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<div class="c-float-left">
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="The de la Motte family poses in height order beside a staircase with stringed instruments, text reads, “and all 10 of our kids play musical instruments.”" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0ESZ35eIEd4o3gBcSuH8ZkUqEuM=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25092026/Vox_Influencers_04.png"/> <cite>Amber de la Motte, TikTok: <span class="citation" data-cites="thehappycaravan">@thehappycaravan</span></cite>
<figcaption>
The de la Mottes are known for their family concerts.
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</figure>
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<h3 id="E1nY0r">
How big-family influencers spread an exclusionary view of parenting
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="swP1fx">
Followers and critics of the Neelemans have pointed out that they are far from the average farming family. Daniel Neeleman’s father, David Neeleman, founded JetBlue along with several other airlines. Ballerina Farm was <a href="https://annehelen.substack.com/p/the-edenic-allure-of-ballerinafarm">listed for $2.75 million</a> before the Neelemans bought it in 2018. Their kitchen centers around an <a href="https://annehelen.substack.com/p/the-edenic-allure-of-ballerinafarm">Aga cast-iron stove</a>, <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CMck2S4Ant6/">described by Neeleman</a> as “a homesteader’s dream,” that retails for at least $20,000, if not more. Based on the size and price of their property and the cost of raising cattle and pigs for meat, it’s highly unlikely that the Neelemans are living off the proceeds of their farm, <a href="https://annehelen.substack.com/p/the-edenic-allure-of-ballerinafarm">Conley told journalist and cultural critic Anne Helen Petersen in a 2022 interview</a>.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zB2FTE">
Not all large-family influencers are wealthy. Amber de la Motte, mother of the musical de la Motte family, recently <a href="https://www.thecut.com/2023/04/de-la-mottes-family-band-that-busks.html">told the Cut</a> that her family struggles to afford rent and food, but nearly all fit the profile of the typical momfluencers that author <a href="https://www.vox.com/23690126/mothers-parenting-momfluenced-sara-petersen-tiktok-instagram">Sara Petersen laid out in her recent book <em>Momfluenced</em></a>: They’re white, cis, thin, and straight.
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Their whiteness, in particular, protects them from the criticism that Black parents and other parents of color have faced. Across American history, large white families have been “idealized as representing traditional values or religious beliefs,” Traci Baxley, author of the book <em>Social Justice Parenting: How to Raise Compassionate, Anti-Racist, Justice-Minded Kids in an Unjust World</em>, said in an email. Black families, meanwhile, have been portrayed by media and lawmakers as “irresponsible or over-prolific,” and have had to endure policies, such as forced sterilization, that restrict reproductive autonomy and limit family size, Baxley said.
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To this day, “often there’s no room in society’s mind for Black families who are intentional about creating big families,” said Baxley, a mom of five. “I have been asked, by white women, if all of my children had the same dad!” While influencers like Neeleman have been able to gain a following for their big families, that path isn’t available to many parents of color.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="J2t9eL">
The valorization of large white families, and especially those led by stay-at-home mothers, also has historical ties to white supremacy. In the 19th century, as a reaction to anxieties about the Industrial Revolution, “white, upper-class women were tasked with acting as the moral centers of the home, paragons of virtue who nurtured and upheld the nuclear family,” <a href="https://annehelen.substack.com/p/pretty-white-moms-in-their-pretty">Petersen has said</a>. The ideal family was explicitly portrayed as white, while early 1900s family manuals about protecting or sanctifying a home often contained eugenicist messages against racial mixing, Conley said.
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More recently, some tradwives have urged other women to have lots of children specifically to perpetuate whiteness. In 2017, one <a href="https://www.vox.com/youtube">YouTube</a> creator issued what she called “the white baby challenge,” according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/01/opinion/sunday/tradwives-women-alt-right.html">the New York Times</a>. “Citing falling white birthrates in the West, she urged her followers to procreate. ‘I’ve made six!’ she wrote. ‘Match or beat me!’”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="KowdzG">
It’s also impossible to ignore the fact that influencers with lots of kids are coming to popularity at a time when <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/6/24/23181720/supreme-court-dobbs-jackson-womens-health-samuel-alito-roe-wade-abortion-marriage-contraception">the fall of <em>Roe v. Wade</em></a> has led to <a href="https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/dashboard/abortion-in-the-u-s-dashboard/#:~:text=NOTE%3A%20As%20of%20September%2028,Texas%2C%20and%20West%20Virginia).">bans on abortion</a> in more than a dozen states. Those bans coincided with a rise of tradwife influencers spreading <a href="https://jezebel.com/trad-wife-wellness-influencers-are-trying-to-take-down-1849802986">misinformation about birth control</a> as well as the persistence of <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/8/29/20828866/obria-medical-clinics-birth-control-planned-parenthood">wellness rhetoric</a> that frames contraception as unnatural and dangerous to health.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3XmKnD">
Even influencers who don’t explicitly talk politics are often indirectly promoting a political stance, Conley said: “There’s a formula to becoming a large influencer family, and some of that formula does include white Christian nationalist messaging.” Families who have incorporated some of that formula into their branding “may not recognize the themes,” she said, “but they’re spreading them nonetheless.”
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<div class="c-float-right">
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="JD &amp;amp; Britney Lott dance with their kids, text reads, “No one cares more about your kid than you.”" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cb8SDKu_5nttYvXyxYuNPazz7PI=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25092013/Vox_Influencers_05.png"/> <cite>JD &amp; Britney Lott, Instagram: <span class="citation" data-cites="americanfamilyroadtrip">@americanfamilyroadtrip</span></cite>
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JD &amp; Britney Lott often post dance videos with their kids.
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<h3 id="p1kru1">
Large families on TikTok can teach us something about all families
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Our cultural fixation on influencers like Neeleman can be productive if we let it be. “If people can be thoughtful about where their fascination is coming from, and then channel that differently, I think that could be potentially transformative for the way we approach care work at a societal level,” Conley said.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FSxGxq">
Part of the appeal of these influencers is the way they render the often invisible labor of having a family visible, and make it appear joyful and beautiful, at a time when care work is, as Conley points out, devalued by both economic policy and cultural norms. <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22360152/child-care-free-public-funding">Child care</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/8/21/20694768/home-health-aides-elder-care">elder care workers</a> are among the most poorly paid workers in America, and the work of parents and <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23850582/millennials-aging-parents-boomers-seniors-family-care-taker">family caregivers</a> is typically unpaid and often overlooked. Against this backdrop, creators like Neeleman have made the daily tasks of <a href="https://www.vox.com/parenting">parenting</a> — making dinner, dressing the kids, holding the baby — not just art but also commerce. “They figured out how to make care work economically valuable,” Conley said.
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Their method isn’t really scalable — not everyone can make money on sponsored posts or branded aprons, especially if they don’t fit the influencer mold. Instead, valuing care work in an inclusive way could look like participating in mutual aid, Conley said, or lobbying elected officials for universal preschool, paid leave, or a universal basic income.
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Ultimately, the popularity of big families in the influencer economy can reveal ordinary Americans’ desire to have our labor recognized and supported, no matter what our families look like. As Conley put it, “Even if it doesn’t look like something that someone would put on Instagram, we are all performing care work every single day.”
</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>In Pictures | Defining moments of the Cricket World Cup 2023</strong> - The Hindu looks back at 10 iconic moments of the 2023 ICC World Cup in India</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Not an epic choke, just a bad day in the office, say sports psychologists</strong> - After 10 wins in a row, India’s unstoppable run came to a crashing halt in yet another trophy clash. Since winning the Champions Trophy in 2013, India have lost five ICC finals and three semifinals.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku scores 4 goals to set Euro qualifiers record</strong> - Belgium striker Romelu Lukaku has scored four first-half goals to lead a 5-0 rout of 10-man Azerbaijan in their final European Championship qualifying game</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>India look at young guns to take their legacy forward after World Cup heartbreak</strong> - Shubhman Gill, Shreyas Iyer, Ishan Kishan, Ruturaj Gaikwad, Jaishwal and hopefully Rishabh Pant will hit the road to the T20 World Cup 2024 and beyond.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers | India seek inspiration from famous 2019 stalemate against Qatar in rematch on Nov. 21</strong> - Indian football team confidence boosted after the 1-0 away win against Kuwait on November 16 and will hope to give a tough fight to Qatar</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Here are the big stories from Karnataka today</strong> - Welcome to the Karnataka Today newsletter, your guide from The Hindu on the major news stories to follow today. Curated and written by Nalme Nachiyar.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Murugha mutt seer arrested again, sent to 14-day judicial custody in second POCSO case</strong> - Shivamurthy Murugha Sharanaru, who was released on bail following a High Court order, was arrested again in connection with the second case under PoCSO Act</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Amit Shah rakes up Hyderabad Liberation struggle &amp; BRS neglect</strong> - Mr. Shah maintained that the party will remove the 4% quota for the Muslims</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Relief, apprehension: teachers describe the current mood in Visva-Bharati University</strong> - During the recently concluded five-year tenure of Prof. Bidyut Chakrabarty as Vice-Chancellor, transfer, suspension and termination orders as well as show-cause notices were served on employees, leading to nearly 200 legal challenges pending in various courts</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Watch | Organic farming is catching on in Tamil Nadu’s Nilgiris</strong> - Sales of organic vegetable is gradually picking up in the Nilgiris owing to the changing mindset of people towards healthy eating.</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine war: The Russians snitching on colleagues and strangers</strong> - In Soviet Russia it was common for people to report others to the authorities - now the practice is back.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>‘Waves’ of Russian drones attack Kyiv for second night in a row</strong> - The latest raids have revived fears Moscow is targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as winter begins.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine war: Marines gain riverbank foothold but front lines barely move</strong> - Marines talk of progress on “several bridgeheads” but soldiers talk of fatigue at the front.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Russia seeks extremist label for LGBT movement</strong> - The measure could leave any LGBT activist in the country vulnerable to criminal prosecution.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>French senator Joël Guerriau questioned on suspicion of drugging MP</strong> - Joël Guerriau was detained after the MP complained of feeling unwell after a drink.</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The reincarnation of totaled Teslas—in Ukraine</strong> - Cars deemed unfixable in North America are resurrected in Eastern Europe. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1984930">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Cities: Skylines 2’s troubled launch, and why simulation games are freaking hard</strong> - Elaborate parking booths, Q4 financials, game engines, and the nature of sims. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1984342">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Sensible power output makes the DBA Mini eMastered a huge amount of fun</strong> - Think of it as an alternative to a supercar. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1984688">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>OpenAI board attempts to hit “Ctrl-Z” in talks with Altman to return as CEO</strong> - Cleared of malfeasance, Altman’s unpopular firing may be undone—if he’s interested. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1985272">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Starship brought the thunder as it climbed into space for the first time</strong> - Starship reached a speed of 15,000 mph, then self-destructed over the Gulf of Mexico. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1985247">link</a></p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Three guys are walking through the woods when they find a lamp. One of them picks it up, rubs it, and out pops a genie. Delighted, the genie says, “You have finally freed me after all these years, so I’ll grant each one of you 3 wishes.”</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The first guy immediately shouts out, “I want a billion dollars.” <em>POOF</em>, he’s holding a printout that shows his account balance is now in fact $1,000,000,003.50.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The second man thinks for a bit, then says, “I want to be the richest man alive.” <em>POOF</em>, he’s holding papers showing his net worth is now well over $100 billion.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The third guy thinks even longer about his wish, then says, “I want my left arm to rotate clockwise for the rest of my life.” <em>POOF</em>, his arm starts rotating.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The genie tells them it’s time for their second wish. First guy says, “I want to be married to the most beautiful woman on earth.” <em>POOF</em>, a stunning beauty wraps herself around his arm.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Second guy says, “I want to be good-looking and charismatic, so I can have every girl I want.” <em>POOF</em>, his looks change and the first guy’s wife immediately starts flirting with him.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Third guy says, “I want my right arm to rotate counter-clockwise until I die.” <em>POOF</em>, now both his arms are rotating, in opposite directions.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The genie tells them to think very carefully about their third wish. First guy does, and after a while says, “I never want to become sick or injured. I want to stay healthy until I die.” <em>POOF</em>, his complexion improves, his acne is gone, and his knees don’t bother him any more.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Second guy says, “I never want to grow old. I want to stay 29 forever.” <em>POOF</em>, he looks younger already.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Third guy smiles triumphantly and says, “My last wish is for my head to nod back and forth.” <em>POOF</em>, he’s now nodding his head and still flailing his arms around. The genie wishes them good luck, disappears, and the men soon go their separate ways.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Many years later they meet again and chat about how things have been going. First guy is ecstatic: “I’ve invested the money and multiplied it many times over, so me and my family will be among the richest of the rich pretty much forever. My wife is a freak in the sheets, and I’ve never gotten so much as a cold in all these years.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Second guy smiles and says “Well, I built charities worldwide with a fraction of my wealth, I’m still the richest guy alive, and also revered for my good deeds. I haven’t aged a day since we last met, and yes, your wife is pretty wild in bed.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Third guy walks in, flailing his arms around and nodding his head, and says, “Guys, I think I fucked up.”
</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/unpocoloco13"> /u/unpocoloco13 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/17z5fl0/three_guys_are_walking_through_the_woods_when/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/17z5fl0/three_guys_are_walking_through_the_woods_when/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A police officer spots a car parked in a popular make-out spot late one night, and decides to investigate.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
He sees a young man behind the wheel reading a newspaper and a young woman in the passenger seat knitting. This is a puzzling sight, so he decides to find out more about these individuals.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“How old are you?” he asks the guy.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Twenty-one, officer,” he replies
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“What about you?” he asks the girl.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
She looks at her watch: “In about ten minutes, I’ll be eighteen.”
</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/IHeartAquaSoMuch"> /u/IHeartAquaSoMuch </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/17z2ytx/a_police_officer_spots_a_car_parked_in_a_popular/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/17z2ytx/a_police_officer_spots_a_car_parked_in_a_popular/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>I was working in an ice cream shop and we ran out of vanilla ice cream</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
About 10 minutes later a lady comes in and asks for a gallon of vanilla. So I have to break the news too her. “Sorry ma’am, we are all out of vanilla today.” “Oh, no bother” she says, “I’ll just take a pint of vanilla then” Slightly confused, I say “No ma’am, it’s not just the gallon size, we don’t have any Vanilla at all” “Ohhhhh” she says. “Then how about a triple scoop of vanilla in a waffle cone?” Now I’m getting frustrated. “Ma’am, there’s no vanilla in the whole store! We got busy earlier and aren’t getting any till tomorrow…understand?” “Oh how silly of me. I understand now. How about just a single scoop of vanilla in a dish?” …
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
…
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Ok maybe I can explain it another way. How do you spell the ‘rose’ in ‘rosebud’?” “R-O-S-E” she says, a bit confused “Right! Now try the…’stop’ in ‘stoplight’?” “Ok…S-T-O-P” “Good! Now how do you spell the ‘fuck’ in ‘vanilla’?” She thinks for a second and says “well there is no ‘fuck’ in ‘vanilla’!” “THATS WHAT IVE BEEN TRYING TO TELL YOU FOR THE LAST 5 MINUTES!!”
</p>
</div>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/jonny_mal"> /u/jonny_mal </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/17zhwai/i_was_working_in_an_ice_cream_shop_and_we_ran_out/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/17zhwai/i_was_working_in_an_ice_cream_shop_and_we_ran_out/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Golf</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
<div class="md">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Three men are out on the golf course. The first tees off and slices the ball straight into the water hazard. The second man is like, “Oof, tough luck, Moses!”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Moses replies, “No worries.” He walks over, waves his driver at the water, and it parts. He finds his ball and plays on.
</p>
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The second guy tees off and also hits it right in the water. Moses laughs and says, “Haha, didn’t learn anything, did you, Jesus?”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Jesus laughs, walks out over the water, finds his ball, and plays through.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The third man tees off. His ball slices straight toward the water, but before it breaks the surface, an enormous fish jumps out of the water and swallows the ball. As the fish is about to land, an eagle swoops down and scoops the fish up in its talons. The eagle swoops out, but drops the fish a moment later. It lands, and the ball rolls out of its mouth… straight into the hole.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Moses looks at Jesus and says, “Man. I hate playing golf with your dad.”
</p>
</div>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/KitMacPhersonWrites"> /u/KitMacPhersonWrites </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/17z5jlw/golf/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/17z5jlw/golf/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A guy is playing golf on a new course</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
<div class="md">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
After a while he loses track of what hole he is playing so goes to the woman ahead of him and says, “excuse me miss but I seem to have lost track of what hole I’m playing. Can you help me out?” She responds, “well I’m on the 7th hole and you’re one hole behind me, so you must be on the 6th.” The man thanks her and continues playing. When he gets to the back nine, the same thing happens, so he goes to her and asks again for her help. She says, “I’m on the 14th hole and you’re one hole behind me so you must be on the 13th.” He again thanks her and continues playing. After his game is finished he goes to the clubhouse and sees the same woman at the bar so he goes up and offers to buy her a drink as thanks for helping him. She accepts and they begin talking. The man asks, “so what do you do for a living?” The woman says I’m in sales." The guy goes, “no way, I’m in sales too. What do you sell?” The woman replies, “I dont want to say because you’ll just laugh.” After he assures her he wont laugh she responds, “I sell tampons.” The man falls to the floor laughing and the woman says, “see I told you that you’d laugh.” Slightly out of breath the man says, “that’s not what I’m laughing about. I sell toilet paper, so I’m still one hole behind you.”
</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/necrobus_1999"> /u/necrobus_1999 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/17z6r4x/a_guy_is_playing_golf_on_a_new_course/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/17z6r4x/a_guy_is_playing_golf_on_a_new_course/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
</ul>
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