++Your local meteorologist is always going to be more accurate than a weather app. +
++For the last seven weekends in New York City, it has rained. Never during the week. Never for just an hour. Never not inconvenient. At this point it feels like the inclement weather has gone fully sentient, and knows the exact time on Friday to start ruining New Yorkersā plans. +
++Over this time, this relentless weekend-only rain has also affirmed that Appleās weather app is pretty much useless. Personally, Iāve learned that the app cannot distinguish between ālight rainā and ārain,ā that the percentages it spits out feel bogus, and to never trust it when it tells you what time the rain will stop. Iām not alone. My friends and coworkers also have various stories about how the app has let them down, or how sometimes it just wonāt work. Some even talk about Dark Sky, a weather-forecasting app that Apple bought in 2020, with a mournful, wistful sadness, like a lost love. Apple says Dark Skyās most beloved features have been integrated into its app, but Dark Sky fans arenāt convinced. Things were different then, they say. Things were better. +
++My growing frustration spurred me to find out why Appleās weather app stinks. In speaking to experts, I was comforted by the fact that thereās actually a reason ā algorithms, specifically ā for my annoyance. Itās nice to be mad at something in particular. But in my search I also discovered newfound appreciation for local meteorologists and more about weather and weather forecasting than I had initially planned. +
++What we mean when we say Appleās weather app stinks +
++My serious complaint with Appleās weather app is that it wonāt give me a straight answer when it comes to rain. Rain means wet socks, puddles, a dampness in my clothes that hangs around all day. It also means dealing with people who say, āOh, we needed thisā with a polite smile. +
++Rain sucks. +
+ ++My needs are simple: I want to know if itās going to rain, how much itās going to rain, when the rain will start and when itāll stop. Ideally, I would like to not have to go outside to check if itās raining, because why else would I have a powerful computer in my hand if it couldnāt tell me things that were happening around me? +
+/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25025774/1544682674.jpg)
Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images
++āThe Apple weather app is not good for specifics,ā says John Homenuk, the meteorologist behind NY Metro Weather. Homenuk has gained a loyal New York City following for his accurate and jaunty daily weather forecasts. āAnd, unfortunately, specifics is what we need if weāre planning our life. āDo I need a jacket tonight? Is it gonna rain when I go to sit on the rooftop later?ā It struggles with that type of stuff.ā +
++Homenuk explained to me that Appleās weather app, and weather apps in general, work by using algorithms to interpret data ā weather models, location, current observations ā culled from various sources. Other experts I spoke to said apps donāt disclose what data theyāre using nor how frequently they source the data, which can lead to imprecise readings. +
++These algorithms also have limits. In weather forecasting, these limits show up because those equations are based on models that meteorologists understand to be imperfect. +
++āThereās one big model that is used not only in apps, but weather data around the United States. Itās called the GFS, the Global Forecast System,ā Homenuk said, adding that the GFS tends to err on the side of speed, sometimes projecting storms going out to sea and out of the area faster than anticipated. Meteorologists who understand the GFS know its faults, and use those faults and what the GFS is predicting to provide a more accurate forecast. +
++āIf thereās a snowstorm developing ā¦ the app could be showing that four days from now itās going to be sunny and 45 degrees because the appās using the GFS. But we know as human beings that this model always does this. Itās always too far out to sea with the storms, and weāll be more careful,ā Homenuk said, providing a hypothetical example. +
++The GFS is just one model of many, and each one has its own tendencies and errors that humans can correct for. Algorithms donāt have that kind of discernment yet, which in turn makes app predictions like precipitation and storms somewhat imprecise. Algorithms also canāt compete with the human experience of living somewhere and knowing how weather behaves in that particular area. +
++āTerrain can have a huge effect on how those models perform,ā Jeff Givens, a meteorologist based in Durango, Colorado, told me over email. Givensās accurate forecasts (especially when it comes to snow and storms) have garnered him a following on his extremely popular site Durango Weather Guy, because the San Juan Mountains tend to bork general weather predictions in his area. āApps and models perform better in flat terrain.ā +
++Given this information, it seems like weather apps perform best in places with predictable precipitation patterns, as well as places where there arenāt mountains or any kind of topographical features to skew things. People in Southern California probably do not complain about Appleās app as much as someone in Durango or even New York City would. +
++Apps are great, when you put them into perspective +
++When I asked Alexander Stine, a professor at San Francisco State Universityās earth and climate sciences department, why Appleās weather app sucked, he scoffed at me. +
++āNot knowing whether itās going to rain in an hour? I would say thatās just being fussy about where the peas are on your plate,ā Stine said. āItās an incredible technological achievement to know that itās going to rain at all this week. I grew up in a world where weather prediction was not accurate. We didnāt have enough data. But over my lifetime, the skill of weather prediction has increased pretty astoundingly.ā Talking with Stine gave me a new perspective on my gripe with weather apps. When you consider how much better these predictions have become over time, these apps feel more like an achievement of technology, instead of a point of annoyance. +
+/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25025784/1708167204.jpg)
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
++Stine explained that everything we think about forecasting comes from the National Weather Service, a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Every six hours they run a simulation which then gives them information for the next few weeks. Regional offices break down that information pragmatically, with attention to past data. Weather companies (e.g.Ā Accuweather, Weather Underground, etc.) then go and make nudges and tweaks to that information to create predictions. +
++āUltimately, whatever someoneās putting on an app ā they donāt have access to different information than anyone else,ā Stine said. āThere is not different information available to different weather predictors. Theyāre all using the National Weather Service.ā +
++The models, Stine says have improved greatly as time has gone on, getting better and better every day. Thatās mainly due to more and more detailed data being fed into the equations over the years, to the point where thereās more uncertainty in current satellite observations than in the forecast models themselves. +
++The basic idea: everyone gets their weather data from the same place, and there shouldnāt be drastic variances between what weather companies and apps are saying. Also: stop complaining. +
++But Stine did have a small concession. He explained that my complaints arenāt about the grand scale of weather forecasting which, as he pointed out, can have major economic and governmental impacts. My grumble, he said, is more about the trend of what he calls ānow-castingā ā and thatās a very different animal. +
++āThe traditional weather forecasting problem is a problem of understanding the fluid dynamics of the entire planet,ā Stine said. āWhereas the problem is if itās gonna rain in five minutes, thatās a very localized [concern]. Thatās not something that, to my knowledge, the National Weather Service is very interested in. Itās kind of neat though, and maybe you can go put on a coat, or maybe you can go out back and stick the bicycle in the garage.ā +
++Complaining about Apple being wrong about rain in Manhattan in seven minutes when, over Stineās lifetime (heās 49), there have been massive developments in weather prediction does feel a little like complaining about the way the peas have been arranged on my plate. How Stine thinks about weather forecasting and how I, pre-Stine, thought about weather prediction differed in scale and scope. +
++But those disparate perspectives find common ground when it comes to the importance of meteorologists. +
++As accurate as these models and forecasts are, meteorologists are key to understanding the weather around us, how it behaves, and the places we live. Apps will never, barring some kind of future, massive technological advancement, be as good at weather prediction as the meteorologists who understand how a particular combination of physics, mathematics, and geography work. +
++āItās part of understanding the value of meteorologists. And this is not me, like, trying to defend my job,ā said Homenuk, of NY Metro Weather. āHuman input is needed to understand the complexities of weather.ā +
++Homenuk told me, as of the time we spoke, that he didnāt expect any rain in the forecast for New York City for Halloween. Iād check the app, but I am gonna trust him on this one. +
++In recent weeks, tens of thousands of people have marched in rallies across the world. +
++In light of the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, protests supporting Palestinian rights have erupted around the world in the last two weeks. +
++The protests, which vary by country or even by city, still have some common themes: They broadly condemn Israelās military siege of Gaza, call for a ceasefire on all sides, and criticize US military aid for Israel. They have been notable in their size and scope, with demonstrations including tens of thousands of people in the US, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. +
++There are also some takeaways that are unique to each region: In the US, the protests appear to mark an increase in public support for Palestinians compared to past conflicts. In the Middle East, where protests have previously been repressed by multiple countries in the region like Qatar, Egypt, and Morocco, itās revealing about autocratic leadersā political calculuses that protests are being allowed to take place at all. Some of these protests have been condemned for supporting Hamasās horrific violence, while other rallies and organizers have actively denounced such positions and criticized the killings of both Israeli and Palestinian civilians. +
++In many places, the demonstrations expressing support for Palestinians share the goal of putting pressure on Israel and the Western policymakers who have thrown their support behind the Israeli government in its response to the militant political group Hamasās October 7 attack. Separate protests in support of Israel have also been held over the past weeks, calling for the release of the roughly 200 Israeli hostages Hamas took captive during its violent incursion. +
++Nearly two weeks ago, Hamas launched a surprise attack into Israel, brutally killing roughly 1,400 people and seizing approximately 200, many of them civilians. In response, Israel launched an ongoing series of devastating airstrikes, and enacted a ācomplete siegeā of Gaza, which is overseen by Hamas, keeping its roughly 2.2 million people ā most of them civilians ā from getting food, water, and fuel. Following external pressure, it has recently allowed in minimal humanitarian aid. +
++Continued fighting has already caused at least 5,000 deaths and 15,200 injuries in Gaza, according to local authorities, while displacing more than 1 million people. Many activists fear the conflict could lead to significantly more casualties as the Israeli government reportedly prepares a ground invasion to target the densely populated Palestinian enclave in the coming days. +
++This is an outbreak of violence unlike recent ones, both in terms of the brutality of Hamasās attack and the deadly scale and stated aims of Israelās response. The outpouring of protests criticizing this violence ā particularly those condemning Israelās military response ā has also felt unique. +
++That paradigm shift helps explain why this moment of global protest can seem different ā especially to audiences in the US, watching protests abroad and in New York City, Washington, DC, and Los Angeles. The US demonstrations seem to reflect shifts in public sentiment in support of Palestinian rights; for example, a March 2023 Gallup poll found for the first time that Democratsā sympathies aligned more with Palestinians than with Israelis. +
++Broadly, the Gallup poll found that Americans overall are still more sympathetic with Israelis, though it documented a growing trend of support for Palestinians over time. In 2010, 15 percent of Americans said their sympathies lay more with Palestinians than Israelis in the Middle East. In 2023, that number was at 31 percent. +
++An October 2023 Economist/YouGov survey conducted after the Hamas attacks, however, found that sympathy for Israelis grew following the militant groupās violent incursion as sympathy for Palestinians or for both groups has declined. While 31 percent of Americans were more sympathetic to Israel in March 2023, that number went up to 48 percent in October 2023 following the attacks. +
++At the same time, an October 2023 poll from the progressive firm Data for Progress found that 66 percent of likely American voters strongly or somewhat agreed with the need for the US to call for a ceasefire. And an October 2023 Quinnipiac survey found that younger voters, in particular, were less likely to support the USās plans to send military weapons to Israel, with 51 percent of registered voters between the ages of 18 and 34 disapproving of such actions. +
++In many other Western countries ā including France, Spain, Italy, and Britain ā the public has been more sympathetic to the Palestiniansā cause than Israelās, a dynamic reaffirmed in a 2023 YouGov survey. German respondents have sympathized more with Israelis, however, a continuation of a past pattern. In the Middle East, public sentiment has also consistently favored Palestinians, and the recent military actions in Gaza have only served to spur additional outcry. +
++The US shift in public opinion and subsequent surge in global protests supporting Palestinians are driven by a couple of factors. In the US, the Black Lives Matter movement in 2020 helped reshape conversations about racial justice, taught new leaders to mobilize, and raised broader awareness about human rights abuses. Additionally, there has been increased understanding of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict globally due to social media and a wider range of information sources. And in recent years, there has been more scrutiny among civil rights groups of settlements in the West Bank, violence toward Palestinians in the occupied territories, and the role that US military aid is playing in this conflict. Together, these factors have contributed to a ripe environment for protest. +
++āYou do see more people, particularly in younger generations, being willing to support Palestinian rights, who equate this stance with broader stances on a number of different issues including racial justice in the US,ā Sarah Parkinson, a Johns Hopkins political scientist who is an expert in Middle East studies, tells Vox. +
++What protesters are calling for +
++There has been a lot of variation in the protests ā local political contexts, regional history, what was happening in the war the day of a rally, and even individual protest speakers can shape the message significantly. But letās start with what many of them share: Broadly, the demonstrations in DC and globally have criticized the Biden administrationās policy choices, the Israeli governmentās current airstrikes on Gaza, and the Israeli governmentās longstanding occupation of Palestinian territories. +
++āWe came to make clear to President Biden that he has a choice,ā Eva Borgwardt, political director of IfNotNow, a Jewish American advocacy group that opposes Israelās occupation of Palestinian territories, tells Vox. IfNotNow was among the organizations that staged a sit-in on Capitol Hill last week as well as a protest in front of the White House. āEither he can uphold the value that every human life is precious or he can let Netanyahuās far-right government enact a genocidal campaign against Palestinians that will destabilize the region and make peace an impossibility for another generation.ā +
+++BREAKING: Jewish protesters for a #FreePalestine flood rotunda of Canon Building demanding CeaseFire chanting NOT IN OUR NAME!ā
+ā #StopCopCity (@ChuckModi1) October 18, 2023 +
Stop #Gazagenocide pic.twitter.com/XopVI1yEfq +
+