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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="covid-19-sentry">Covid-19 Sentry</h1>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
<ul>
<li><a href="#from-preprints">From Preprints</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-clinical-trials">From Clinical Trials</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-pubmed">From PubMed</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-patent-search">From Patent Search</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-preprints">From Preprints</h1>
<ul>
<li><strong>The role of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance and innovative analytical platforms for informing public health preparedness in Bengaluru, India.</strong> -
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A comprehensive SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance programme that integrates logistics, laboratory work, bioinformatics, analytics, and timely reporting was deployed through a public-private partnership in the city of Bengaluru, Karnataka in India. As a result, 12461 samples have been sequenced and reported to the Karnataka State public health officials as time-sensitive, decision support during the last one year and uploaded in global public databases in a timely manner. This programme has developed an analytics platform for studying SARS-CoV-2 sequences and their epidemiological context. Continuous sequencing effort enabled timely detection of emergence of Omicron variant in India and the subsequent spread of the same and its sub-lineages with more logistic growth (BA.10, BA.12 and BA.5) in Bengaluru. Our data also helped to provide timely information on variants to determine which of the Variants of Concern tracked globally, were observed in Bengaluru, ensuring targeted efforts and reducing unwarranted fear. This effort highlights the importance of, and the urgent need to, increase genomic surveillance to support the states with limited sequencing and bioinformatics capacity. We describe the development and deployment of this end-to-end solution for genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the city of Bengaluru.
</p>
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🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.07.22276915v1" target="_blank">The role of SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance and innovative analytical platforms for informing public health preparedness in Bengaluru, India.</a>
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<li><strong>Healthcare utilization following SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents with chronic conditions: An EHR-based Cohort Study from the RECOVER Program</strong> -
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Background Chronic medical conditions are a risk factor for moderate or severe COVID-19 in children, but little is known about post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) in children with chronic medical conditions (CMCs). To understand whether SARS-CoV-2 infection led to potential exacerbation of underlying chronic disease in children, we explored whether children with CMCs had increased healthcare utilization in the post-acute (28 days after infection) period compared to children with CMCs without SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods We conducted a retrospective, matched-cohort study using electronic health record data collected from 8 pediatric health care systems participating in the PEDSnet network. We included children &lt;21 years of age with a wide array of chronic conditions, defined by the presence of diagnostic codes, who were diagnosed with COVID-19 between March 1, 2020 and February 28, 2022. Cohort entry was defined by presence of a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test (polymerase chain reaction or antigen) or diagnostic codes for COVID-19, PASC or MIS-C. A comparison cohort of patients testing negative or without these conditions was matched using a stratified propensity score model and exact matching on age group, race/ethnicity, institution, test location, and month of cohort entry. A negative binomial model was used to examine our primary outcome: composite and setting-specific (inpatient, outpatient, ED) utilization rate ratios between the positive and comparison cohorts. Secondary outcomes included time to first utilization in the post-acute period, and utilization stratified by severity at cohort entry. Results We identified 748,692 patients with at least one chronic condition, 78,744 of whom met inclusion criteria for the COVID-19 cohort. 96% of patients from the positive cohort were matched. Cohorts were well-balanced for chronic condition clusters, total number of conditions, time since first diagnosis, baseline utilization, cohort entry period, age, sex, race/ethnicity and test location. We found that among children with chronic medical conditions, those with COVID-19 had higher healthcare utilization than those with no recorded COVID-19 diagnosis or positive test, with utilization rate ratio of 1.21 (95% CI: 1.18-1.24). The utilization was highest for inpatient care with utilization rate ratio of 2.03 (95% CI: 1.85-2.23) but the utilization was increased across all settings. Hazard ratios estimated in time-to-first-utilization analysis mirrored these results. Patients with severe or moderate acute COVID-19 illness had greater increases in utilization in all settings than those with mild or asymptomatic disease. Conclusions We found that care utilization in all settings was increased following COVID-19 in children with chronic medical conditions in the post-acute period, particularly in the inpatient setting. Increased utilization was correlated with more severe COVID-19. Additional research is needed to better understand the reasons for higher care utilization by studying condition-specific outcomes in children with chronic disease.
</p>
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.08.22276768v1" target="_blank">Healthcare utilization following SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents with chronic conditions: An EHR-based Cohort Study from the RECOVER Program</a>
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<li><strong>Brain imaging and neuropsychological assessment of individuals recovered from mild to moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection</strong> -
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Importance: As SARS-CoV-2 infections have been shown to affect the central nervous system, it is crucial to investigate associated alterations of brain structure and neuropsychological sequelae to help address future health care needs. Objective: To determine whether a mild to moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with alteration of brain structure detected by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and neuropsychological deficits. Design, Setting and Participants: Following a case-control design, 223 non-vaccinated individuals with a positive polymerase chain reaction test (PCR) for SARS-CoV-2 obtained between 1 March and 31 December 2020 received MRI and neuropsychological assessments within the framework of the Hamburg City Health Study (median 9.7 months after testing). Two hundred twenty-three healthy controls, examined prior to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, were drawn from the main study and matched for age, sex, education and cardiovascular risk factors. Exposure: Infection with SARS-CoV-2 confirmed by a positive PCR. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary study outcomes were advanced diffusion MRI measures of white matter microstructure, cortical thickness, white matter hyperintensity load and neuropsychological test scores. Results: The present analysis included 223 individuals recovered from mainly mild to moderate SARS-CoV-2 infections (100 female/123 male, age [years], mean +- SD, 55.54 +- 7.07) and 223 matched healthy controls (93 female/130 male, 55.74 +- 6.60). Among all 11 MR imaging markers tested, significant differences between groups were found in global measures of mean diffusivity and extracellular free-water which were both elevated in the white matter of post-SARS-CoV-2 individuals comparing to matched controls (free-water: 0.148 +- 0.018 vs. 0.142 +- 0.017, P&lt;.001; mean diffusivity [10-3 mm2/s]: 0.747 +- 0.021 vs. 0.740 +- 0.020, P&lt;.001). Classification accuracy for detecting post-SARS-CoV-2 individuals based on diffusion imaging markers was up to 80%. Neuropsychological test scores did not significantly differ between groups. Conclusions and Relevance: Our findings suggest that subtle changes in white matter extracellular water content may last beyond the acute infection with SARS-CoV-2. However, in our sample, a mild to moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection was not associated with neuropsychological deficits, significant changes in cortical structure or vascular lesions several months after recovery. External validation of our findings and longitudinal follow-up investigations are needed.
</p>
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🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.08.22277420v1" target="_blank">Brain imaging and neuropsychological assessment of individuals recovered from mild to moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection</a>
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<li><strong>Diagnostic accuracy of SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen self-tests in asymptomatic individuals in the Omicron period: cross sectional study</strong> -
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Objectives To assess the performances of three commonly used rapid antigen diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) used as self-tests in asymptomatic individuals in the Omicron period. Design Cross-sectional diagnostic test accuracy study. Setting Three public health service COVID-19 test sites in the Netherlands. Participants 3,600 asymptomatic individuals aged ≥16 years presenting for SARS-CoV-2 testing for any reason except confirmatory testing after a positive self-test. Interventions Participants were sampled for RT-PCR (reference test) and received one self-test (either Acon Flowflex (Flowflex), MP Biomedicals (MPBio), or Siemens-Healthineers Clinitest (Clinitest)) to perform unsupervised at home within three hours and blinded to the RT-PCR result. Main Outcome(s) and Measures(s) Diagnostic accuracies (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values) of each self-test compared to RT-PCR. Results Overall sensitivities of the three self-tests were 27.5% (95% CI: 21.3-34.3%) for Flowflex, 20.9% (13.9-29.4%) for MPBio, and 25.6% (19.1-33.1%) for Clinitest. After applying a viral load cut-off (≥5.2 log10 SARS-CoV-2 E-gene copies/mL), sensitivities increased to 48.3% (95% CI: 37.6-59.2%), 37.8% (22.5-55.2%), and 40.0% (29.5-51.2%), respectively. No consistent differences were found in sensitivities by COVID-19 vaccination status, having had a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, gender or age across the three self-tests. Specificities were &gt;99% for all tests in most analyses. Conclusions The sensitivities of three commonly used SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDTs when used as self-tests in asymptomatic individuals in the Omicron period, were very low. Our findings indicate that Ag-RDT self-testing in asymptomatic individuals may only detect the minority of infections at that point in time and may not be sufficient to prevent the spreading of the virus to other (vulnerable) persons. Repeated self-testing in case of a negative self-test is advocated to improve the diagnostic yield of the self-tests, and individuals should certainly be advised to re-test when symptoms develop.
</p>
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🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.07.22277366v1" target="_blank">Diagnostic accuracy of SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen self-tests in asymptomatic individuals in the Omicron period: cross sectional study</a>
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<li><strong>Manifestations Associated with Post Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV2 Infection (PASC) Predict Diagnosis of New-Onset Psychiatric Disease: Findings from the NIH N3C and RECOVER Studies</strong> -
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Acute COVID-19 infection can be followed by persistent or newly diagnosed manifestations in many different organ systems, referred to as Post Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV2 Infection (PASC). Numerous studies have shown an increased risk of being diagnosed with new-onset psychiatric disease in the first 21-120 days following a diagnosis of acute COVID-19. However, it was unclear whether non-psychiatric PASC-associated manifestations (PASC-AMs) are associated with an increased risk of receiving a diagnosis of new-onset psychiatric disease following COVID-19. Here, we perform a retrospective electronic health record (EHR) cohort study to evaluate whether non-psychiatric PASC-AMs can predict whether patients will receive a diagnosis of new-onset psychiatric disease. Data were obtained from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C), which has EHR data from 65 clinical organizations which are harmonized using the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) data model. Non-psychiatric PASC-AMs were recorded 21-120 days following SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis and before diagnosis of new-onset psychiatric disease. OMOP codes were mapped to 178 Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) terms that represent PASC-AMs. Logistic regression was applied to predict newly diagnosed psychiatric disease occurrence based on age, sex, race, pre-existing comorbidities, and PASC-AMs in eleven categories. The cohort of 1,135,973 individuals with acute COVID-19 had a mean age of 40.5 years and included 56.0% females. We found a significant association for seven of the HPO categories with newly diagnosed psychiatric disease, with odds ratios highest for neurological (2.30, 2.24-2.36) and cardiovascular (1.77, 1.69-1.85) PASC-AMs. Secondary analysis revealed that the proportions of 95 of 154 individual phenotypic features differed significantly among patients diagnosed with different psychiatric diseases (anxiety, mood disorders, dementia, and psychosis). Neurological, pulmonary, gastrointestinal, endocrine, cardiovascular, constitutional, and ENT PASC-AMs are each associated with an increased risk of newly diagnosed psychiatric disease. This suggests that the total burden of PASC-AMs influences the risk of receiving a diagnosis of a new-onset psychiatric disease. This finding may be used to inform psychiatric screening following acute COVID-19 by identifying high-risk patients.
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<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.08.22277388v1" target="_blank">Manifestations Associated with Post Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV2 Infection (PASC) Predict Diagnosis of New-Onset Psychiatric Disease: Findings from the NIH N3C and RECOVER Studies</a>
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<li><strong>Analysing COVID treatment outcomes in dedicated wards at a large university hospital in northern Poland. A result-based observational study.</strong> -
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Introduction Presenting outcomes of patients hospitalised for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) should be put in context and comparison with other facilities. Number of statistical parameters can be used to compare effectiveness of treatment, however varied methodology applied in studies can impede or hinder a reliable comparison. The aim of this study is to present outcomes of COVID-19 treatment in our facility using simplest parameters allowing for intercenter comparison – case fatality ratio (CFR), length of stay (LOS) and transparent patients characteristics, and to discuss factors affecting mortality in COVID-19. Methods The data were collected from patients hospitalized in COVID-19 general and ICU isolation wards in the University Clinical Centre (UCC) in Gdansk, Poland, from November 2020 to June 2021, using a computer-based patient record system. The group consisted of 642 patients – 144 (39,1 %) were women and 391 (60,9 %) were men, with a median age of 69 (IQR 59-78) years. Values of LOS and CFR were calculated and analysed. Results Overall CFR for the analysed period was 24,8 %, varying from 19,9 % in January to May 2021 to 33,8 % in November to December 2020. CFR was 18,9 % in general ward and 70,7 % in ICU. All ICU patients required intubation and mechanical ventilation, and forty-four (75,9 %) of them developed acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Average length of stay was 13,1 (± 7,1) days. Conclusion CFR in the general ward in UCC was analogous to published outcomes, but higher in our ICU ward. It resulted from more rigorous ICU admittance criteria in UCC compared to other facilities, which corresponds with patients severe clinical condition and unfavourable prognosis. Heterogeneity of methods assessing initial clinical condition in different facilities makes a meaningful intercenter comparison challenging. In this study, we propose simple and transparent statistical and clinical parameters applicable in an intercenter analysis.
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🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.07.22277395v1" target="_blank">Analysing COVID treatment outcomes in dedicated wards at a large university hospital in northern Poland. A result-based observational study.</a>
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<li><strong>A Case-Crossover Phenome-wide Association Study (PheWAS) for Understanding Post-COVID-19 Diagnosis Patterns</strong> -
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Importance: Post COVID-19 condition (PCC) is known to affect a large proportion of COVID-19 survivors. Robust study design and methods are needed to understand post-COVID-19 diagnosis patterns in all COVID-19 survivors, not just the ones clinically diagnosed with PCC. Objective: To assess which diagnoses appear more frequently after a COVID-19 infection and how they differ by COVID-19 severity and vaccination status. Design: We applied a case-crossover phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) in a retrospective cohort of COVID-19 survivors, comparing the occurrences of 1,649 diagnosis-based phenotype codes (PheCodes) pre- and post-COVID-19 infection periods in the same individual using a conditional logistic regression. Setting: Patients tested for or diagnosed with COVID-19 at Michigan Medicine from March 10, 2020 through May 1, 2022. Participants: 36,856 SARS-CoV-2-positive patients and 141,615 age- and sex-matched SARS-CoV-2-negative patients as a comparison group for sensitivity analysis. Exposure: SARS-CoV-2 virus infection as determined by RT-PCR testing and/or clinical evaluation. Main Outcomes and Measures: We compared the rate of occurrence of 1,649 disease classification codes in “pre-” and “post-COVID-19 periods”. We studied how this pattern varied by COVID-19 severity and vaccination status at the time of infection. Results: Using a case-crossover PheWAS framework, we found mental, circulatory, and respiratory disorders to be strongly associated with the “post-COVID-19 period” for the overall COVID-19-positive cohort. A total of 325 PheCodes reached phenome-wide significance (p&lt;3e-05), and top hits included cardiac dysrhythmias (OR=1.7 [95%CI: 1.6-1.9]), respiratory failure, insufficiency, arrest (OR=3.1 [95%CI: 2.7-3.5]) and anxiety disorder (OR=1.7 [95%CI: 1.6-1.8]). In the patients with severe disease, we found stronger associations with many respiratory and circulatory disorders, such as pneumonia (p=2.1e-18) and acute pulmonary heart disease (p=2.4e-8), and the “post-COVID-19 period,” compared to those with mild/moderate disease. Test negative patients exhibited a somewhat similar association pattern to those fully vaccinated, with mental health and chronic circulatory diseases rising to the top of the association list in these groups. Conclusions and Relevance: Our results confirm that patients experience myriad symptoms more than 28 days after SARS-CoV-2 infection, but especially mental, circulatory, and respiratory disorders. Our case-crossover PheWAS approach controls for within-person confounders that are time-invariant. Comparison to test negatives with a similar design helped identify enrichment specific to COVID-19. As we look into the future, we must be aware of COVID-19 survivors9 healthcare needs in the period after infection.
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🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.07.22277394v1" target="_blank">A Case-Crossover Phenome-wide Association Study (PheWAS) for Understanding Post-COVID-19 Diagnosis Patterns</a>
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<li><strong>Medical complaints after 3 vs 2 doses SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination</strong> -
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Aims: To examine whether individuals vaccinated with three doses of mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have an altered incidence of medical complaints compared to individuals not vaccinated with three doses. Methods: Using longitudinal exact 1:1 matching on days since 2nd dose, calendar month and a set of covariates, we obtained a matched sample with 138 581 individuals aged 18-70 years that had the 3rd dose at 20-30 weeks after the 2nd dose and an equally large control group that did not. Main outcomes were medical records of common complaints seen in primary care for up to 90 days after the treatment. Results: Depending on type of complaint, the estimated 90-day cumulative incidence varied between 70 and 5000 per 100 000 individuals. Among individuals aged 18-44 years, the number of medical complaints was lower for individuals with three doses: Fatigue: 662, 95% confidence interval=473-850, shortness of breath: 160 (90-230) and brain fog: 65 (22-108) fewer per 100 000 vaccinated. No decrease in incidence was observed for musculoskeletal pain, cough or heart palpitations. When individuals where censored from the analysis from the date of positive SARS-CoV-2 test, these absolute differences were smaller. Similar analyses gave higher estimates among individuals aged 45-70 years, yet more ambiguous results when censored at positive test. Conclusion: Individuals vaccinated with dose 3 had reduced incidence of complaints compared to matched controls with only 2 doses. Analyses with vs without censoring at positive test implied that this reduction might be explained by a reduced COVID-19 incidence among the 3-dose-vaccinated.
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🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.08.22277413v1" target="_blank">Medical complaints after 3 vs 2 doses SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination</a>
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<li><strong>Carbohydrate-Binding Protein from Stinging Nettle as Fusion Inhibitor for SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern</strong> -
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Urtica dioica agglutinin (UDA) is a carbohydrate-binding small monomeric protein isolated from stinging nettle rhizomes. It inhibits replication of a broad range of viruses, including coronaviruses, in multiple cell types, with appealing selectivity. In this work, we investigated the potential of UDA as a broad-spectrum antiviral agent against SARS-CoV-2. UDA potently blocks entry of pseudotyped SARS-CoV-2 in A549.ACE2+-TMPRSS2 cells, with IC50 values ranging from 0.32 to 1.22 microM. Furthermore, UDA prevents viral replication of the early Wuhan-Hu-1 strain in Vero E6 cells (IC50 = 225 nM), but also the replication of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, including Alpha, Beta and Gamma (IC50 ranging from 115 to 171 nM). In addition, UDA exerts antiviral activity against the latest circulating Delta and Omicron variant in U87.ACE2+ cells (IC50 values are 1.6 and 0.9 microM, respectively). Importantly, when tested in Air-Liquid Interface (ALI) primary lung epithelial cell cultures, UDA preserves antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2 (20A.EU2 variant) in the nanomolar range. Surface plasmon resonance (SPR) studies demonstrated a concentration-dependent binding of UDA to the viral spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, suggesting interference of UDA with cell attachment or subsequent virus entry. Moreover, in additional mechanistic studies with cell-cell fusion assays, UDA inhibited SARS-CoV-2 spike protein-mediated membrane fusion. Finally, pseudotyped SARS-CoV-2 mutants with N-glycosylation deletions in the S2 subunit of the spike protein remained sensitive to the antiviral activity of UDA. In conclusion, our data establish UDA as a potent and broad-spectrum fusion inhibitor for SARS-CoV-2.
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🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.08.499297v1" target="_blank">Carbohydrate-Binding Protein from Stinging Nettle as Fusion Inhibitor for SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern</a>
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<li><strong>Impact and mitigation of sampling bias to determine viral spread: evaluating discrete phylogeography through CTMC modeling and structured coalescent model approximations</strong> -
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Bayesian phylogeographic inference is a powerful tool in molecular epidemiological studies that enables reconstructing the origin and subsequent geographic spread of pathogens. Such inference is, however, potentially affected by geographic sampling bias. Here, we investigated the impact of sampling bias on the spatiotemporal reconstruction of viral epidemics using Bayesian discrete phylogeographic models and explored different operational strategies to mitigate this impact. We considered the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model and two structured coalescent approximations (BASTA and MASCOT). For each approach, we compared the estimated and simulated spatiotemporal histories in biased and unbiased conditions based on simulated epidemics of rabies virus (RABV) in dogs in Morocco. While the reconstructed spatiotemporal histories were impacted by sampling bias for the three approaches, BASTA and MASCOT reconstructions were also biased when employing unbiased samples. Increasing the number of analyzed genomes led to more robust estimates at low sampling bias for CTMC. Alternative sampling strategies that maximize the spatiotemporal coverage greatly improved the inference at intermediate sampling bias for CTMC, and to a lesser extent, for BASTA and MASCOT. In contrast, allowing for time-varying population sizes in MASCOT resulted in robust inference. We further applied these approaches to two empirical datasets: a RABV dataset from the Philippines and a SARS-CoV-2 dataset describing its early spread across the world. In conclusion, sampling biases are ubiquitous in phylogeographic analyses but may be accommodated by increasing sample size, balancing spatial and temporal composition in the samples, and informing structured coalescent models with reliable case count data.
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🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.07.498932v1" target="_blank">Impact and mitigation of sampling bias to determine viral spread: evaluating discrete phylogeography through CTMC modeling and structured coalescent model approximations</a>
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<li><strong>Correlation of Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Levels and Exosome Associated Neutrophil Elastase Endothelial Injury in Subjects with SARS-CoV2 Infection</strong> -
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Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by a novel coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has infected more than 18 million people worldwide. The activation of endothelial cells is a hallmark of signs of SARS-CoV-2 infection that includes altered integrity of vessel barrier and endothelial inflammation. Objectives: Pulmonary endothelial activation is suggested to be related to the profound neutrophil elastase (NE) activity, which is necessary for sterilization of phagocytosed bacterial pathogens. However, unopposed activity of NE increases alveolocapillary permeability and extracellular matrix degradation. The uncontrolled protease activity of NE during the inflammatory phase of lung diseases might be due to the resistance of exosome associated NE to inhibition by alpha-1 antitrypsin. Method: 31 subjects with a diagnosis of SARS-CoV2 infection were recruited in the disease group and samples from 30 voluntaries matched for age and sex were also collected for control. Results: We measured the plasma levels of exosome-associated NE in SARS-CoV-2 patients which, was positively correlated with the endothelial damage in those patients. Notably, we also found strong correlation with plasma levels of alpha-1 antitrypsin and exosome-associated NE in SARS-CoV-2 patients. Using macrovascular endothelial cells, we also observed that purified NE activity is inhibited by purified alpha-1 antitrypsin while, NE associated with exosomes are resistant to inhibition and show less sensitivity to alpha-1 antitrypsin inhibitory activity, in vitro. Conclusions: Our results point out the role of exosome-associated NE in exacerbation of endothelial injury in SARS-CoV-2 infection. We have demonstrated that exosome-associated NE could be served as a new potential therapeutic target of severe systemic manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.07.499204v1" target="_blank">Correlation of Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Levels and Exosome Associated Neutrophil Elastase Endothelial Injury in Subjects with SARS-CoV2 Infection</a>
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<li><strong>Chronumental: time tree estimation from very large phylogenies</strong> -
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Phylogenetic trees are an important tool for interpreting sequenced genomes, and their interrelationships. Estimating the date associated with each node of such a phylogeny creates a “time tree”, which can be especially useful for visualising and analysing evolution of organisms such as viruses. Several tools have been developed for time-tree estimation, but the sequencing explosion in response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has created phylogenies so large as to prevent the application of these previous approaches to full datasets. Here we introduce Chronumental, a tool that can rapidly infer time trees from phylogenies featuring large numbers of nodes. Chronumental uses stochastic gradient descent to identify lengths of time for tree branches which maximise the evidence lower bound under a probabilistic model, implemented in a framework which can be compiled into XLA for rapid computation. We show that Chronumental scales to phylogenies featuring millions of nodes, with chronological predictions made in minutes, and is able to accurately predict the dates of nodes for which it is not provided with metadata.
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🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.27.465994v2" target="_blank">Chronumental: time tree estimation from very large phylogenies</a>
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<li><strong>Building Emotion Awareness and Mental Health (BEAM): Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial of the BEAM App-based program for mothers of children 18-36 months.</strong> -
<div>
Background: The prevalence of maternal depression and anxiety has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic and pregnant individuals are experiencing concerningly elevated levels of mental health symptoms worldwide. Many individuals may now be at heightened risk of postpartum mental health disorders. Recent evidence suggests that the cognitive development of children born during the pandemic has been impacted. There are significant concerns that a cohort of children may be at-risk for impaired self-regulation and mental illness due to elevated exposure to perinatal maternal mental illness. The intergenerational effects of maternal mental illness are most pronounced when depression persists. With both an increased prevalence of depression and limited availability of services due to the pandemic, there is an urgent need for accessible eHealth interventions for mothers of young children. The aims of this trial are to evaluate the efficacy of the Building Emotion Awareness and Mental Health (BEAM) app-based program for reducing maternal depression symptoms (primary outcome) as well as for improving anxiety symptoms, family relationships, parenting, mother and child functioning (secondary outcomes) compared to treatment as usual (TAU). Methods: A two-arm randomized controlled trial (RCT) with repeated measures will be used to evalute the efficacy of the BEAM intervention compared to TAU among a sample of 140 mothers with children aged 18 to 36 months, who self-report moderate-to-severe symptoms of depression and/or anxiety. Individuals will be recruited online and those randomized to the treatment group will participate in 10 weeks of modules on mental health and parenting, an online social support forum, and weekly group teletherapy sessions. Assessment of depression (primary outcome), family relationship quality, anxiety, parenting, and mother and child functioning will occur at 18-36 months postpartum (pre-test, T1), immediately after the last week of the BEAM intervention (post-test, T2), and at 3 months after the intervention (follow-up, T3). Primary outcomes will also be assessed weekly throughout the 10 week intervention. Discussion: eHealth interventions have the potential to address elevated maternal mental health symptoms, parenting stress, and child funtioning concerns during and after the COVID-19 pandemic and provide accessible programming to mothers who are in need of support. This RCT will build on an open pilot trial of the BEAM program and provide further evaluation of this evidence-based intervention for mothers experiencing depression. Findings will increase understanding of depression and parenting stress in mothers with young children and reveal the potential for long-term improvements in maternal and child health and family well-being.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://psyarxiv.com/hfdmq/" target="_blank">Building Emotion Awareness and Mental Health (BEAM): Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial of the BEAM App-based program for mothers of children 18-36 months.</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Short-Term Effects of Short-Term Work: Dynamics in Fatigue across Two National Lockdowns</strong> -
<div>
Objective: Anecdotal evidence suggests work fatigue has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and work interventions to offset stresses have been effective. Our study sought to test these propositions, documenting and describing the complexity of worker well-being around two lockdown periods. Methods: Using 17 waves of data from a longitudinal study in Germany (December 2019 to June 2021, n = 1,053 employees), we model discontinuous changes in work fatigue and how participation in a government-sponsored short-term work program (Kurzarbeit) affected change trajectories. Results: The COVID-19 pandemic has not invariably resulted in work fatigue, and individuals with Kurzarbeit at the first lockdown (but not the second) showed significantly larger decreases in each form of fatigue at this transition. Conclusions: Future policy interventions will require more contextual nuance to effectively support worker well-being during public health crises.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://psyarxiv.com/bqxg7/" target="_blank">Short-Term Effects of Short-Term Work: Dynamics in Fatigue across Two National Lockdowns</a>
</div></li>
<li><strong>Coping During Covid 19 Facilitator Manual</strong> -
<div>
This manual has been created to assist mental health professionals in delivering and facilitating the two hour evidence-based online CBT program “Coping during COVID-19”. It overviews the eight module course, designed to support those who are struggling with symptoms of anxiety and depression due theCOVID-19 crisis.
</div>
<div class="article-link article-html-link">
🖺 Full Text HTML: <a href="https://psyarxiv.com/65spv/" target="_blank">Coping During Covid 19 Facilitator Manual</a>
</div></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-clinical-trials">From Clinical Trials</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Immuno-bridging Study of COVID-19 Protein Subunit Recombinant Vaccine</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Biological: COVID-19 Protein Subunit Recombinant Vaccine;   Biological: Active Comparator<br/><b>Sponsors</b>:   PT Bio Farma;   Fakultas Kedokteran Universitas Indonesia;   Faculty of Medicine Universitas Diponegoro;   Faculty of Medicine Universitas Andalas;   Faculty of Medicine Universitas Hassanudin<br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Study to Learn About the Study Medicines (Called Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir) in People 12 Years Old or Older With COVID-19 Who Are Immunocompromised</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Drug: Nirmatrelvir;   Drug: Ritonavir;   Drug: Placebo for nirmatrelvir;   Drug: Placebo for ritonavir<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Pfizer<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Randomized Controlled Trial of a Digital, Self-testing Strategy for COVID-19 Infection in South Africa.</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Device: Abbott Panbio rapid antigen self-tests;   Other: COVIDSmart CARE! app<br/><b>Sponsors</b>:   McGill University Health Centre/Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre;   University of Cape Town Lung Institute<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Generation of SARS-CoV-2-specific T Lymphocytes From Recovered Donors and Administration to High-risk COVID-19 Patients</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   Severe COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Biological: Coronavirus-2-specific T cells;   Other: standard of care (SOC)<br/><b>Sponsors</b>:   George Papanicolaou Hospital;   General Hospital Of Thessaloniki Ippokratio<br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of FB2001 in Hospitalized Patients With Moderate to Severe COVID-19 (BRIGHT Study)</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Drug: FB2001;   Drug: FB2001 placebo<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Frontier Biotechnologies Inc.<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Immunogenicity and Safety Study of One Booster Dose of Trivalent COVID-19 Vaccine (Vero Cell), Inactivated</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Biological: Trivalent COVID-19 Vaccine (Vero Cell), Inactivated, Prototype Strain, Delta Strain and Omicron Strain;   Biological: COVID-19 Vaccine (Vero Cell), Inactivated<br/><b>Sponsors</b>:   Sinovac Biotech (Colombia) S.A.S.;   Sinovac Life Sciences Co., Ltd.<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Engaging Staff to Improve COVID-19 Vaccination Response at Long-Term Care Facilities</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Behavioral: Full Intervention;   Other: Enhanced Usual Care<br/><b>Sponsors</b>:   Kaiser Permanente;   Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute;   Global Alliance to Prevent Prematurity and Stillbirth (GAPPS)<br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of PanCytoVir™ for the Treatment of Non-Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 Infection</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Drug: PanCytoVir™ (probenecid);   Drug: Placebo<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   TrippBio, Inc.<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Value of Montelukast as a Potential Treatment of Post COVID-19 Persistent Cough</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   Post COVID-19<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Drug: Montelukast Sodium Tablets<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Assiut University<br/><b>Completed</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Topical Antibacterial Agents for Prevention of COVID-19</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>:   COVID-19;   SARS-CoV2 Infection<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Drug: Neosporin;   Other: Vaseline<br/><b>Sponsors</b>:   Yale University;   Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Plasma Exchange Therapy for Post- COVID-19 Condition: A Pilot, Randomized Double-Blind Study</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   Post-COVID19 Condition<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Combination Product: Plasma Exchange Procedure;   Other: Sham Plasma Exchange Procedure<br/><b>Sponsors</b>:   Fundación FLS de Lucha Contra el Sida, las Enfermedades Infecciosas y la Promoción de la Salud y la Ciencia;   IrsiCaixa;   Banc de Sang i Teixits<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Evaluation of Effectiveness of Proprietary Rehabilitation Program in Patients After COVID-19 Infection</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>:   COVID-19;   Rehabilitation<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Other: resistance respiratory training with the use of respiratory muscle trainer<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Medical University of Bialystok<br/><b>Recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 Variant (COVID-19 Omicron) mRNA Vaccine (Phase 1)</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Intervention</b>:   Biological: ABO1009-DP<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Suzhou Abogen Biosciences Co., Ltd.<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 Variant (COVID-19) mRNA Vaccines</strong> - <b>Condition</b>:   COVID-19<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Biological: ABO1009-DP;   Biological: ABO-CoV.617.2;   Other: Placebo<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Suzhou Abogen Biosciences Co., Ltd.<br/><b>Not yet recruiting</b></p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Can Intensive Insulin Therapy Improve Outcomes of COVID-19 Patients</strong> - <b>Conditions</b>:   COVID-19;   Dysglycemia<br/><b>Interventions</b>:   Drug: Insulin;   Drug: Subcutaneous Insulin<br/><b>Sponsor</b>:   Benha University<br/><b>Completed</b></p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-pubmed">From PubMed</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Immune checkpoint inhibitors in kidney transplant recipients: a multicentre, single-arm, phase 1 study</strong> - BACKGROUND: Most kidney transplant recipients with cancer stop or reduce immunosuppressive therapy before starting treatment with an immune checkpoint inhibitor, and approximately 40% of such patients will develop allograft rejection. Isolated immunosuppression reduction might be associated with organ rejection. Whether immunosuppression manipulation, immune checkpoint inhibition, or both, induce organ rejection is difficult to ascertain. The aim of this study was to examine the risk of…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Synthesis and structure-activity relationship study of saponin-based membrane fusion inhibitors against SARS-CoV-2</strong> - We previously discovered that triterpenoid saponin platycodin D inhibits the SARS-CoV-2 entry to the host cell. Herein, we synthesized various saponin derivatives and established a structure-activity relationship of saponin-based antiviral agents against SARS-CoV-2. We discovered that the C3-glucose, the C28-oligosaccharide moiety that consist of (→3)-β-d-Xyl-(1 → 4)-α-l-Rham-(1 → 2)-β-d-Ara-(1 → ) as the last three sugar units, and the C16-hydroxyl group were critical components of…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Structural Basis of Main Proteases of Coronavirus Bound to Drug Candidate PF-07304814</strong> - New variants of the severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged and spread rapidly all over the world, which strongly supports the need for pharmacological options to complement vaccine strategies. Main protease (M^(pro) or 3CL^(pro)) is a critical enzyme in the life cycle of SARS-CoV-2 and appears to be highly conserved among different genera of coronaviruses, making it an ideal target for the development of drugs with broad-spectrum property. PF-07304814 developed by…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Size and Zeta Potential Clicked Germination Attenuation and Anti-Sporangiospores Activity of PEI-Functionalized Silver Nanoparticles against COVID-19 Associated Mucorales (<em>Rhizopus arrhizus</em>)</strong> - The SARS-CoV-2 infections in Indian people have been associated with a mucormycotic fungal infection caused by the filamentous fungi Rhizopus arrhizus. The sporangiospores of R. arrhizus are omnipresent in the environment and cause infection through inhalation or ingestion of contaminated air and foods. Therefore, the anti-sporangiospore activity of polyethyleneimine functionalized silver nanoparticles (PEI-f-Ag-NPs) with variable size and surface charge as a function of the molecular weight of…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Cyanidin-3-O-glucoside and Peonidin-3-O-glucoside-Rich Fraction of Black Rice Germ and Bran Suppresses Inflammatory Responses from SARS-CoV-2 Spike Glycoprotein S1-Induction In Vitro in A549 Lung Cells and THP-1 Macrophages via Inhibition of the NLRP3 Inflammasome Pathway</strong> - Black rice is a functional food that is high in anthocyanin content, primarily C3G and P3G. It possesses nutraceutical properties that exhibit a range of beneficial effects on human health. Currently, the spike glycoprotein S1 subunit of SARS-CoV-2 (SP) has been reported for its contribution to pathological inflammatory responses in targeting lung tissue and innate immune cells during COVID-19 infection and in the long-COVID phenomenon. Our objectives focused on the health benefits of the C3G…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Bulgarian Medicinal Extracts as Natural Inhibitors with Antiviral and Antibacterial Activity</strong> - CONCLUSION: The antipathogenic potential of extracts of H. perforatum and G. glabra suggests their effectiveness as antimicrobial agents. All 13 extracts of the Bulgarian medicinal plants studied can be used to reduce viral yield in a wide range of viral infections.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>From Repurposing to Redesign: Optimization of Boceprevir to Highly Potent Inhibitors of the SARS-CoV-2 Main Protease</strong> - The main protease (M^(pro)) of the betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is an attractive target for the development of treatments for COVID-19. Structure-based design is a successful approach to discovering new inhibitors of the M^(pro). Starting from crystal structures of the M^(pro) in complexes with the Hepatitis C virus NS3/4A protease inhibitors boceprevir and telaprevir, we optimized the potency of the alpha-ketoamide boceprevir against the M^(pro) by replacing its P1 cyclobutyl moiety by a γ-lactam…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Nucleoside/Nucleotide Analogs Tenofovir and Emtricitabine Are Inactive against SARS-CoV-2</strong> - The urgent response to the COVID-19 pandemic required accelerated evaluation of many approved drugs as potential antiviral agents against the causative pathogen, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Using cell-based, biochemical, and modeling approaches, we studied the approved HIV-1 nucleoside/tide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) tenofovir (TFV) and emtricitabine (FTC), as well as prodrugs tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) and tenofovir disoproxilfumarate (TDF) for…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>In Silico Screening of Novel TMPRSS2 Inhibitors for Treatment of COVID-19</strong> - COVID-19, a pandemic caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, has spread globally, necessitating the search for antiviral compounds. Transmembrane protease serine 2 (TMPRSS2) is a cell surface protease that plays an essential role in SARS-CoV-2 infection. Therefore, researchers are searching for TMPRSS2 inhibitors that can be used for the treatment of COVID-19. As such, in this study, based on the crystal structure, we targeted the active site of TMPRSS2 for virtual screening of compounds in the FDA…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Phytochemical Analysis, Antimutagenic and Antiviral Activity of <em>Moringa oleifera</em> L. Leaf Infusion: In Vitro and In Silico Studies</strong> - Moringa oleifera (M. oleifera) leaves are rich in nutrients and antioxidant compounds that can be consumed to prevent and overcome malnutrition. The water infusion of its leaf is the easiest way to prepare the herbal drink. So far, no information is available on the antioxidant, antimutagenic, and antivirus capacities of this infusion. This study aimed to determine the composition of the bioactive compounds in M. oleifera leaf infusion, measuring for antioxidant and antimutagenic activity, and…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Potent Activity of a High Concentration of Chemical Ozone against Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria</strong> - BACKGROUND: Health care-associated infections (HAIs) are a significant public health problem worldwide, favoring multidrug-resistant (MDR) microorganisms. The SARS-CoV-2 infection was negatively associated with the increase in antimicrobial resistance, and the ESKAPE group had the most significant impact on HAIs. The study evaluated the bactericidal effect of a high concentration of O(3) gas on some reference and ESKAPE bacteria.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Multi-Step In Silico Discovery of Natural Drugs against COVID-19 Targeting Main Protease</strong> - In continuation of our antecedent work against COVID-19, three natural compounds, namely, Luteoside C (130), Kahalalide E (184), and Streptovaricin B (278) were determined as the most promising SARS-CoV-2 main protease (M^(pro)) inhibitors among 310 naturally originated antiviral compounds. This was performed via a multi-step in silico method. At first, a molecular structure similarity study was done with PRD_002214, the co-crystallized ligand of M^(pro) (PDB ID: 6LU7), and favored thirty…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Peptidomimetic inhibitors of TMPRSS2 block SARS-CoV-2 infection in cell culture</strong> - The transmembrane serine protease 2 (TMPRSS2) primes the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) protein for host cell entry and represents a promising target for COVID-19 therapy. Here we describe the in silico development and in vitro characterization of peptidomimetic TMPRSS2 inhibitors. Molecular docking studies identified peptidomimetic binders of the TMPRSS2 catalytic site, which were synthesized and coupled to an electrophilic serine trap. The compounds inhibit TMPRSS2 while demonstrating good off-target…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Inhibitor induced conformational changes in SARS-COV-2 papain-like protease</strong> - SARS-CoV-2’s papain-like protease (PL^(pro)) interaction with ligands has recently been explored with a myriad of crystal structures. We used molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to study different PL^(pro)-ligand complexes, their ligand-induced conformational changes, and interactions. We focused on inhibitors reported with known IC(50) against PL^(pro), namely GRL-0617, XR8-89, PLP_Snyder530, and Sander’s recently published compound 7 (CPD7), and compared these trajectories against the…</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Antibody levels to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in mothers and children from delivery to six months later</strong> - CONCLUSIONS: High antibody levels against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein were found in most pregnant women. Due to the efficient transfer of IgG to cord blood and high IgA titers in breast milk, neonates may be passively immunized to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our findings could guide newborn management and maternal vaccination policies.</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-patent-search">From Patent Search</h1>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
<ul>
<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ethical Health Care After Roe</strong> - Isaac Chotiner speaks with Louise Perkins King, a surgeon and bioethicist at Harvard and the vice-chair of ethics at the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, about how bioethicists think about abortion, how the medical community should approach its own members who are opposed to abortion, and whether it is ever appropriate for medical-care providers to break the law. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/ethical-health-care-after-roe">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>How Boris Johnson’s Government Finally Collapsed</strong> - In twenty-four hours, more than three dozen ministers and aides deserted the Prime Minister. On July 7th, he announced his plan to resign. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/boris-johnsons-government-is-collapsing-in-on-itself">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Abortion Is About Freedom, Not Just Privacy</strong> - The right to abortion is an affirmation that women and girls have the right to control their own destiny. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/abortion-is-about-freedom-not-just-privacy">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>How Shinzo Abe Sought to Rewrite Japanese History</strong> - Japan’s longest-serving Prime Minister wanted a more assertive place for his country on the international stage—at the expense of atonement and historical accountability. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/how-shinzo-abe-sought-to-rewrite-japanese-history">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Self-Fulfilling Prophecies of Clarence Thomas</strong> - For decades, Thomas has had a deeply pessimistic view of the country, rooted in his reading of the Fourteenth Amendment. After the Supreme Court’s recent opinions, his dystopia is becoming our reality. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-self-fulfilling-prophecies-of-clarence-thomas">link</a></p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
<ul>
<li><strong>Why disasters are getting more severe but killing fewer people</strong> -
<figure>
<img alt="A man on a gurney is rushed into an ambulance by EMTs, with voluminous smoke and orange-tinted air from wildfires surrounding them." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Rn5V13U1NbZ0jlLY10LOd7tr6RU=/988x0:8069x5311/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71092159/GettyImages_1234554104.0.jpeg"/>
<figcaption>
Rescue workers transport a California resident in the wake of the 2021 wildfires. Disasters like wildfires are increasingly destructive, but fewer people are dying. | Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
An important but overlooked piece of good news about climate change.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1Ty48M">
A curious trend has emerged in recent years.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hIAGHC">
Many types of natural disasters are causing greater destruction as populations have grown in floodplains, wildfire zones, and hot climates. More people means more property, which is part of why the number of disasters with <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/time-series">billion-dollar damage tolls</a> is on the rise in the United States.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wsVvrh">
And humans are making many of these disasters more severe by changing the climate. Rising average global temperatures are worsening heat waves and torrential rainfalls, and lifting sea levels.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2wibNN">
“Widespread, pervasive impacts to ecosystems, people, settlements, and infrastructure have resulted from observed increases in the frequency and intensity of climate and weather extremes,” the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> wrote in its most recent report.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PCb3e7">
Yet despite these growing risks, around the world, disasters in general are becoming less deadly. According to the <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/weather-related-disasters-increase-over-past-50-years-causing-more-damage-fewer">World Meteorological Organization</a> (WMO), the number of disasters over the last 50 years has increased fivefold, but the number of deaths has fallen by two-thirds.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="VdKyFm">
This is a huge accomplishment — perhaps one of the biggest success stories in modern history — yet it’s easy to overlook. These immense gains are the result of the steady, incremental work of forecasters, planners, architects, engineers, and policymakers rather than any single innovation. And the main metric is averted losses, something that’s often hard to appreciate and tricky to value.
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Ben Husser (L) of the Cajun Navy, helps emergency workers transfer a patient to their ambulance after the evacuation of a nursing home due to rising flood waters in Lumberton, North Carolina, on September 15, 2018 in the wake of Hurricane Florence." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jtsoC3hQwzanHZYDDI2Wp32qNd8=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23755246/GettyImages_1033982416.jpeg"/> <cite>Alex Edelman/AFP via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>
Volunteers and emergency workers help evacuate residents of a nursing home after Hurricane Florence brought flooding to North Carolina in 2018.
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="T25l6n">
Nevertheless, some world leaders are paying attention and want to carry these advances further. In particular, the United Nations and the WMO are launching a <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-executive-council-gives-green-light-early-warning-and-greenhouse-gas">$1.5 billion program</a> to ensure that everyone on Earth is covered by a disaster early warning system over the next five years. The WMO didn’t specify the details of the program, however, and didn’t respond to requests for comment.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XCvCnl">
“Early warnings and action save lives,” said UN Secretary-General <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27z5P_dh6X0">Antonio Guterres in March</a>. “We must boost the power of prediction for everyone and build their capacity to act.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YcYNqY">
As countries like the US stare down another summer filled with <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2022/6/15/23169428/wildfire-season-controlled-burn-climate">wildfires</a>, floods, and <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2022/6/22/23176860/heat-wave-summer-temperatures-climate-change-us-europe">heat waves</a> — and with the world <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/06/10/climate-action-overshoot-commission/">likely to overshoot</a> climate change targets — saving lives from disasters is a paramount priority. The past century shows that steady progress adds up, but we can’t take this for granted, because climate change is driving up disaster risks and it will take a coherent strategy to counter them.
</p>
<h3 id="XXTzJE">
Improved disaster prediction is a huge, underrated success story
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5OX2mD">
The downward trend in deaths from natural disasters is something to behold. In the early 20th century, annual deaths from disasters sometimes <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters">topped a million</a>. By the 1970s, fatalities fell to roughly 100,000 per year, and in the current decade, to half or less of that number. There have been some years that bucked this trend over the last century as particularly severe disasters struck, but the overall decline holds. And keep in mind that there were just 2 billion people in the world in 1900, compared to <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL">7.8 billion</a> today.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nGBmS6">
Two main factors have saved lives even among increasingly dangerous disasters and growing populations: better forecasting and a greater ability to cope with storms, floods, fires, and heat waves when they do occur.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2h0hE7">
Disaster prediction has seen dramatic improvements, especially in the era of weather satellites and vastly more powerful computers. For example, the National Hurricane Center can now <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/10/11/17963958/hurricane-michael-forecast-track-intensity-category">project the path of a hurricane</a> 72 hours in advance. In 1990, the center could only make such a prediction 24 hours ahead of a storm, and with less accuracy. Now consider that according to the WMO, having <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/%E2%80%8Bearly-warning-systems-must-protect-everyone-within-five-years">24 hours of warning</a> ahead of a storm reduces damages by 30 percent. Two additional days of lead time and a more precise storm path is a massive improvement that has helped even more people get out of harm’s way.
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="US President Joe Biden speaks during a virtual briefing by Federal Emergency Management Agency officials on preparations for Hurricane Ida, in the South Court auditorium of the White House in Washington, DC, on August 28, 2021" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZBIFZ8czgTHB8bcj_k-YBU_XTZg=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23755163/GettyImages_1235032675.jpeg"/> <cite>Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>
President Joe Biden delivers a briefing on Hurricane Ida in front of a map forecasting the storm’s track in 2021.
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ADs7YL">
Forecasters have also extended their lead time for extreme weather like heat waves and severe rainfall, as well as longer-term phenomena like seasonal rainfall or expected cyclone activity in a given year. This allows officials to issue warnings for disasters and prepare for other problems, like <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220525-how-scientists-predict-famine-before-it-hits">famine</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="66LReN">
Even for disasters that have multiple intersecting factors, namely wildfires, researchers are getting better at anticipating when the next blazes will erupt. In the US, the <a href="https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm">National Interagency Fire Center</a> publishes seasonal fire outlooks that can help officials allocate firefighting teams and conduct preventative maintenance.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BdgRne">
And when fires do ignite, modelers can factor in weather, geography, and vegetation to predict not just the flames, but other associated impacts.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YDg4HZ">
“If you had a decent idea of what was going to occur in terms of how flammable a particular region is, you could use that information to develop forecasts of what you would expect in terms of something like smoke impacts downwind,” said <a href="https://biology.unm.edu/people/faculty/profile/matthew-d-hurteau.html">Matthew Hurteau</a>, a biology professor at the University of New Mexico who studies forest fires and climate.
</p>
<div id="gclyJ9">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" dir="ltr" lang="en">
This smoke projection from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh computer model depicts heavy smoke from the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WashburnFire?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WashburnFire</a> impacting Wawona and Yosemite National Park this afternoon. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CAwx?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CAwx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Firewx?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Firewx</a> <a href="https://t.co/yqzwv5x1j1">pic.twitter.com/yqzwv5x1j1</a>
</p>
— NWS Hanford (<span class="citation" data-cites="NWSHanford">@NWSHanford</span>) <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSHanford/status/1545399852212707328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 8, 2022</a>
</blockquote></div></li>
</ul>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pGV7ND">
On the other hand, hard-to-predict disasters are still a potent threat. <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22465340/tornado-science-how-do-they-form-mystery">Tornadoes</a>, for instance, form and dissipate rapidly and are difficult to detect with radars and satellites. Tornado research still depends on observers on the ground. So tornado warnings haven’t improved in the same way as hurricane forecasts. According to the <a href="https://www.weather.gov/lwx/IdentifyThreatsTOR">National Weather Service</a>, more than half of tornado warnings are false alarms. As a result, tornadoes remain some of the deadliest weather phenomena in the US.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qpTtKO">
Geological disasters like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are even more difficult to predict. Even so, scientists have improved their understanding of <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/21/16339522/8-things-to-know-about-earthquakes-alaska">where such events will occur</a>, and while they have lead times measured in minutes, parts of the world now have <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/news/entire-us-west-coast-now-has-access-shakealert-earthquake-early-warning">earthquake early warning systems</a>. Better earthquake detection and warnings have also improved <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/explainers/us-tsunami-warning-system">tsunami warning systems</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oAI77A">
The issue is that the places in the world with the most robust forecasting and alert programs for disasters are often the wealthiest regions. Between 1970 and 2019, more than 91 percent of all weather and climate-related deaths occurred in developing countries, <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/weather-related-disasters-increase-over-past-50-years-causing-more-damage-fewer">according to the WMO</a>. Only half of the world’s countries have early warning systems in place for multiple hazards, and across regions like Africa, Latin America, and island countries, there are large gaps in weather and climate observations.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MHzZIx">
So building up disaster warning systems for everyone in the world, and doing so in five years, is a monumental task. “It is a wildly ambitious goal but an important one,” <a href="https://www.maritime.edu/undergraduate-programs/emergency-management/faculty?page=1">Samantha Montano</a>, an assistant professor of emergency management at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy, said in an email.
</p>
<h3 id="4gBNnN">
The devastation of a disaster doesn’t end with the storm
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uHf3OV">
Despite the epochal scale and devastation of events like hurricanes and wildfires, it can be surprisingly difficult to grapple with the full extent of their impacts. One can add up the casualties when the ground is shaking, the wind is blowing, and the rain is falling, but how many deaths and injuries in the aftermath of the event should be added to the tally?
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2ZgPrz">
And when it comes to “natural” disasters, it can be difficult to separate which impacts are from forces of nature and which ones stem from human causes, like construction in high-risk areas or a poor disaster response.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="DoaN8b">
“Historically, indirect deaths have been either not tracked at all or very poorly tracked,” Montano said.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iMaLAh">
Look at the <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/deadliest-hurricanes-worst-in-the-us-list/30/">list of deadliest hurricanes in the US</a> and you’ll notice that most of them were decades ago, with some more than a century in the past. There are a couple conspicuous outliers, however. Hurricane Katrina in 2005, a category 5 storm with winds topping 175 miles per hour, officially <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-still-dont-know-how-many-people-died-because-of-katrina/">killed around 1,800 people</a>. Hurricane Maria in 2017, also category 5, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00442-0">killed more than 3,000</a>. But the true toll of these disasters was likely much greater.
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="In San Juan, Puerto Rico, darkened buildings line streets at night, with the only lights coming from headlights of passing cars." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KQyZOMMLrec8qlzFWea2lAxNETI=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23755269/GettyImages_851086208.jpeg"/> <cite>Carolyn Cole/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>
Puerto Rico’s power outage after Hurricane Maria in 2017 lasted months, contributing to the death toll of the disaster.
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LY2qLI">
While the storms themselves were exceptionally severe, both hurricanes had long tails of destruction. Hurricane Katrina and the subsequent collapse of levees in New Orleans led to flooding and road blockages that lasted more than 40 days. In the wake of Hurricane Maria, Puerto Rico suffered the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/2/8/16986408/puerto-rico-blackout-power-hurricane">largest blackout in US history</a>, leaving residents without power for vital medical devices, refrigerators, and lighting for months.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="b3CMaO">
Warnings may have helped some people avoid the acute elements of the storms, but much of the devastation from these disasters came in their aftermath, stemming from failures to prepare and respond.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hOEPBQ">
“The theory is with better warnings, you should see a reduction [in deaths], and in many cases we do. But then you factor in socioeconomics, and even with warnings, you may still have the death tolls that are very high,” said <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/archive/person/w-craig-fugate">Craig Fugate</a>, who led the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) under President Barack Obama.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="KYnEYO">
Disaster warnings don’t eliminate the events themselves, and there are wide disparities in who is equipped to evacuate ahead of a disaster and who has the resources to resume their lives in its wake.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Xs7vBF">
For example, in the US, heat waves are the deadliest weather phenomenon. But even with warnings, there is little to do about them besides seeking air conditioning. Access to cooling, however, varies greatly with income and location. The risks can be managed or reduced, but <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23067049/heat-wave-air-conditioning-cooling-india-climate-change">not everyone has access to those tools</a>; the <a href="https://theconversation.com/heat-waves-hit-the-poor-hardest-a-new-study-calculates-the-rising-impact-on-those-least-able-to-adapt-to-the-warming-climate-175224">worst effects often fall on the poorest</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mkFG89">
Clearly, warnings are not enough on their own to reduce fatalities. People also need the means to act on those warnings.
</p>
<h3 id="BFz4o9">
We can’t take declining disaster deaths for granted
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wGXVBN">
With climate change, many weather-related disasters are getting <a href="https://www.vox.com/22616968/ipcc-climate-change-report-attribution-extreme-weather-heat-fire">pushed toward greater extremes</a>, so even places that once could readily endure storms, floods, and fires are struggling to cope. History is no longer a useful guide. “As we keep seeing record-setting events occurring, looking backward isn’t preparing us,” Fugate said.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="D00fLu">
Saving more lives thus demands a more comprehensive assessment of the threats that lie ahead and of tactics to deal with them. That could entail more access to air conditioning to cope with heat waves, tougher building codes to help withstand earthquakes, better fire-resistant construction for housing, and stronger seawalls in coastal areas. In some areas, it may require people to move away from areas prone to severe fires or flooding. Reducing emissions of the gases heating up the planet is critical as well.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="dCNuW6">
Even in countries with forecasting systems in place, there is still plenty of room for improvement. While researchers can anticipate the path of a hurricane, they still struggle to <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/10/11/17963958/hurricane-michael-forecast-track-intensity-category">predict its intensity</a>, a major factor in its destructive potential.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qUvEtB">
These are all expensive interventions with huge political implications, but without them, some of the progress in saving lives could stall or reverse. “If we continue on the current path of doing relatively minimal mitigation and preparedness at the same time that we see an increase in risk then, yes, it is possible to see an increase in deaths over time.” Montano said.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6zedoB">
And while fewer people are dying, the economic costs of disasters are mounting. In 2021, the US experienced 20 separate weather and climate disasters that cost more than $1 billion.
</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Chart showing disaster costs in the US. " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EOfa0XuCdVJN4APKhAuVLZYTqEs=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23753950/Screen_Shot_2022_07_08_at_11.24.36_AM.png"/> <cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/time-series" target="_blank">NOAA</a></cite>
<figcaption>
The number of billion-dollar disasters is on the rise in the US.
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MQZzMC">
The rising damage tolls are a result of having more people and property in the paths of dangerous weather events, as such events increase in severity. Costly disasters are a major concern for the economy and the <a href="https://www.vox.com/22686124/climate-change-insurance-flood-wildfire-hurricane-risk">global insurance industry</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PsmseQ">
Keeping global warming in check is an overwhelming task, but it should not be a cause for despair or complacency. The success in reducing disaster-related deaths shows that there are effective ways to mitigate some of the worst effects of climate change. Closing the gaps in warnings and building up disaster response systems should be an urgent priority and an obligation, particularly for the countries, like the US, that <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/4/24/18512804/climate-change-united-states-china-emissions">contributed the most to the problem</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LEs4h9">
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fcQdKb">
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pFQV9o">
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2Oh0fE">
</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Protests force Sri Lanka’s leaders to resign</strong> -
<figure>
<img alt="Sri Lankans Protest After President’s Residence Is Stormed" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9vIvIZFBjxtHuw9wCNaZZrUOqJg=/166x0:2834x2001/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71091109/1407702670.0.jpg"/>
<figcaption>
Buddhika Weerasinghe/Getty Images
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Entrenched corruption and a political dynasty may keep them in power, though
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zQgpEr">
Sri Lanka’s ongoing political and economic crises once again reached a fever pitch as thousands of protesters gathered on Saturday and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/09/world/sri-lanka-protests-rajapaksa?smid=url-share">some stormed the president’s house and offices</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7rMgoq">
Sri Lanka’s president,<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/09/world/sri-lanka-protests-rajapaksa/sri-lanka-protests?smid=url-share"> Gotabaya Rajapaksa</a>, has apparently agreed to step down July 13, although he has not yet personally confirmed the announcement <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/09/sri-lankan-pm-agrees-to-quit-amid-political-turmoil-00044857">made by the speaker of parliament</a>, as he is reportedly in hiding. Following the speaker’s announcement, protesters also set fire to Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s residence, who also stated he was resigning after just months on the job. Neither he nor Rajapaksa were present when the residences were breached, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62108597">according to the BBC</a>, and<strong> </strong>photos show several protesters floating in the president’s outdoor pool.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="n52l7a">
Rajapaksa, the scion of a Sri Lankan political family, was elected in 2019, and although he didn’t exactly cause the nation’s economic problems, conditions have deteriorated significantly under his leadership; critical shortages of basic necessities like fuel, medicine, and food ignited the protests which have apparently toppled his administration and, for now, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-crisis-threatens-hold-of-sri-lankas-most-powerful-family-11649501618?mod=article_inline">the Rajapaksa dynasty.</a>
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zfz9Mb">
Wickremesinghe, who joined Rajapaksa’s administration in May after the previous prime minister, Mahinda Rajapaksa — a brother of the current president — resigned the post following violent protests over Sri Lanka’s dire economic circumstances. Sri Lanka has defaulted on payments of its foreign loans— which presently total <a href="https://apnews.com/article/asia-economy-sri-lanka-074d8194c64572dc80118f88a01df1c2">about $51 billion</a> — for the first time <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61505842">in its history</a>. That’s exacerbating the turmoil that successive crises have caused for the country’s tourism industry in recent years, including a series of attacks on churches in 2019, as well as the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YqOn5D">
Although Parliamentary Speaker Mahinda Abeywardena <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/09/world/sri-lanka-protests-rajapaksa?smid=url-share#sri-lanka-protests">announced</a> Saturday that the president would resign “to ensure a peaceful transition,” that won’t take effect immediately, and further chaos and violence could occur before the July 13 transition date — not to mention the risk that both the president and prime minister could find a way to cling to power in that time.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eE48zE">
“So the president communicated through the Speaker that he would abide by anything that was agreed at the party leader’s meeting which occurred today,” Nishan de Mel, the executive director of Verité Research, a think tank based in Colombo, <a href="https://twitter.com/VeriteResearch/status/1545828838751584256">told Al Jazeera English Saturday</a>. “And at the party leader’s meeting, everyone except the prime minister, of course, said that both the president and the prime minister must leave their positions with immediate effect.” However, the prime minister hasn’t yet set a date for his departure, and the president’s is still days away.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qPovKk">
“Still a ways to go. 4 days is a LONG time in #SriLanka politics,” Alan Keenan, a researcher focusing on Sri Lankan politics at the International Crisis Group, tweeted Saturday.
</p>
<div id="fcW2HO">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" dir="ltr" lang="en">
Still a ways to go. 4 days is a LONG time in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SriLanka?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SriLanka</a> politics. <a href="https://t.co/IQIOXcJW1a">https://t.co/IQIOXcJW1a</a>
</p>
— Alan Keenan (<span class="citation" data-cites="akeenan23">@akeenan23</span>) <a href="https://twitter.com/akeenan23/status/1545820053018492929?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 9, 2022</a>
</blockquote></div></li>
</ul>
<h3 id="jt5bk1">
Sri Lanka’s current crisis is years in the making
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lklNRn">
The current Rajapaksa administration failed to contain the fallout from recent crises and other long-brewing economic problems, which hampered the government’s ability to supplement its already-dwindling foreign currency reserves. Then, last year, the government banned the import of chemical fertilizer, ostensibly to protect the foreign currency it had on hand; instead, the ban laid waste to the nation’s <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australia-s-cricketers-are-back-in-sri-lanka-but-how-did-the-island-nation-break-down-20220523-p5ant4.html">rice and tea industries</a>, causing the government to spend more importing food than it had saved from the fertilizer ban, Keenan told the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australia-s-cricketers-are-back-in-sri-lanka-but-how-did-the-island-nation-break-down-20220523-p5ant4.html">Sydney Morning Herald</a> in June. And without the foreign currency that the now-struggling tourism industry used to provide, the government could no longer import the basics that people need to survive.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GI24zM">
Those struggles — the church attacks, Covid-19, the gutted tourism industry, low taxes, the fertilizer ban, and, of course, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and attendant fuel crisis — would be more than enough on their own. But the Rajapaksa family’s propensity toward policy failures, corruption, and overly-ambitious infrastructure projects is nothing new, and set in motion the circumstances that brought Sri Lanka’s economy to its knees.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bl0EJA">
Before there was President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, there was President Mahinda Rajapaksa — the same brother that, until May 9, served as Sri Lanka’s prime minister before protesters chased him out of the job and out of his estate, Temple Trees. Under Mahinda, Sri Lanka took on several costly infrastructure projects including a cricket stadium and the Hambantota International Port. China lent billions to Sri Lanka under Mahinda to finance projects including the port; however, Sri Lanka’s government agreed to allow a Chinese state-run creditor to control a majority stake of the port <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/world/asia/sri-lanka-china-port.html">as part of their debt repayment in 2017</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RVDFX0">
Now, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-07/china-shifting-focus-to-southeast-asia-sri-lanka-president-says#xj4y7vzkg%5D">Gotabaya said in an interview in June</a>, China’s proving less willing to loan to Sri Lanka so the government can import basic goods. “My analysis is that China has shifted their strategic focus into Southeast Asia,” he said at the time. “They see more strategic interest in Philippines, Vietnam and Cambodia, that region, and Africa.” That sentiment, of course denies his own government’s role in China’s waning interest in assisting Sri Lanka, making that reluctance about shifting priorities rather than Gotabaya and his administration <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/india-strengthens-its-position-in-sri-lanka-vis-a-vis-rival-china/">failing to meet its creditor’s demands for financial solvency and economic stability</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Vz4fGk">
The president’s <a href="https://www.media.gov.lk/media-gallery/latest-news/2960-president-gotabaya-rajapaksa-s-special-address-to-the-nation-2">refusal to take responsibility for the economic crisis</a> also meant that he delayed <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/sri-lankas-prime-minister-says-economy-faces-complete-collapse-11655899756">requesting assistance from the International Monetary Fund</a> <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sri-lankan-president-expands-cabinet-ahead-imf-talks-2022-04-18/">and others to help restructure Sri Lanka’s debts and bail out the country, prolonging the economic crisis</a> — which has now become a political crisis.
</p>
<h3 id="kMlNum">
Entrenched corruption is prompting calls for “system change”
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="DDfRzK">
Now, with the potential end of the current Rajapaksa administration, it’s unclear exactly how Sri Lanka will emerge from the unprecedented economic crisis it’s currently facing. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/sri-lankas-prime-minister-says-economy-faces-complete-collapse-11655899756">Talks with the IMF last month</a>, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/06/30/pr22242-imf-staff-concludes-visit-to-sri-lanka">while apparently fruitful</a>, failed to produce a plan to right the economy and put it on a stable path forward; political instability could potentially thwart continuing discussions.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wG67sm">
While Both Rajapaksa<strong> </strong>and Wickremesinghe have agreed to go following a decision by parliament urging them both to resign office effective immediately, they could delay in an attempt to hang on to power. Rajapaksa has allegedly agreed to leave by July 13 and Wickremesinghe hasn’t set a date and there’s<strong> </strong>not actually a guarantee that they’ll do so, according to Keenan. “All those in power &amp; close to it in #SriLanka, with v few exceptions, care only about playing the angles, buying time, almost never about the public interest,” he tweeted Saturday. “This is why so many demand ‘system change.’”
</p>
<div id="f4V9Ii">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" dir="ltr" lang="en">
.<a href="https://twitter.com/NCdeMel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw"><span class="citation" data-cites="NCdeMel">@NCdeMel</span></a> on Ranil “buying time”: promising, like Gotabaya, to resign soon. <br/><br/>All those in power &amp; close to it in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SriLanka?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SriLanka</a>, with v few exceptions, care only about playing the angles, buying time, almost never about the public interest. This is why so many demand “system change”. <a href="https://t.co/MzzRrWbbTQ">https://t.co/MzzRrWbbTQ</a>
</p>
— Alan Keenan (<span class="citation" data-cites="akeenan23">@akeenan23</span>) <a href="https://twitter.com/akeenan23/status/1545836102992502784?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 9, 2022</a>
</blockquote>
</div>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YG3jGX">
De Mel told Al Jazeera English that, “If you look at the prime minister’s history of leadership of his own party, in the last 20 years every time they’ve lost an election — and they have lost many — the prime minister, within his party, has promised to step down, provided there is consensus in the rest of the party ranks about an alternative leader.” Now, de Mel said, Wickremesinghe at least may be trying, “to buy time, and to not actually defer to the enormous call of society and people to resign. So I think it is very clear that it is a tried and tested, cynical tactic that is being presented as an excuse to remain.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4AO8ay">
Additionally, t<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/09/world/sri-lanka-protests-rajapaksa/sri-lanka-protests?smid=url-share">he New York Times</a> has reported incidents of state violence against protesters, with 42 people injured after run-ins with state security forces, and four journalists with a Sri Lankan television station attacked outside the prime minister’s residence by security forces. On Saturday. the police had used water cannons and tear gas against protesters, and had reportedly fired shots into the air to attempt to disperse the crowds.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Alu7Wl">
Should Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe actually end up leaving office, it’s not clear that the Rajapaksa political dynasty will end with Gotabaya. Mahinda’s son, Namal, served in his uncle’s cabinet until this year and still serves in parliament; Basil Rajapaksa, a brother of the president, was the finance minister in his brother’s administration and according to some insiders <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/07/the-family-took-over-how-a-feuding-ruling-dynasty-drove-sri-lanka-to-ruin">effectively ran the country during its economic spiral</a>. He resigned his post June 9, but even then, he told reporters, “I cannot and will not step away from politics.”
</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>When cash giving doesn’t work</strong> -
<figure>
<img alt="A participant holding a sign at the protest that reads “Stimulus checks can’t cover NYC rents.”" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zV58-fjwXB4gK7RlM0wTOEjNXT8=/175x0:2926x2063/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71082769/1224906852.0.jpg"/>
<figcaption>
A protester in 2020 arguing the stimulus cash payments were inadequate. | Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
New studies raise questions about the full effect of direct cash payments. But the real need is research on how to make such programs more politically feasible.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="i79OQE">
I’m a big fan of cash. Like most of you, I’m pro-people-giving-me-cash, but more generally I think handing out unrestricted currency, whether in paper or digital form, is an underrated and efficient way to help people.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LSM5Te">
As we’ve covered at Future Perfect, evaluations of cash programs have found that they can function as <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/11/25/20973151/givedirectly-basic-income-kenya-study-stimulus">economic stimulus in one of the poorest regions of Kenya</a>, help a therapy program <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23141405/violence-crime-cbt-therapy-cash-shootings">reduce crime in Liberia</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21528569/homeless-poverty-cash-transfer-canada-new-leaf-project">reduce homelessness in Vancouver</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23180175/cash-aid-food-global-africa-famine-hunger">fight hunger in areas with food crises</a>, and <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23056876/expanded-child-tax-credit-poverty-american-families-impact">slash child poverty in the US</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="b7emNm">
With great enthusiasm comes great responsibility, though — specifically, responsibility to highlight evidence and research that challenges my existing beliefs, even ones that seem as obvious as “getting cash is good.” Recent days have seen the release of three big studies of cash transfers in the US, and those studies found the transfers did … very little.
</p>
<h3 id="9O3soC">
Getting an extra stimmy in 2020
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aNDOtH">
The <a href="http://sites.fordschool.umich.edu/poverty2021/files/2022/06/Pilkauskas_et_al_RCT1_May2022.pdf">first</a> <a href="http://sites.fordschool.umich.edu/poverty2021/files/2022/06/Jacob_et_al_RCT2_6_8_2022.pdf">two</a> studies come from the same team, composed of the University of Michigan’s Brian Jacob, Natasha Pilkauskas, Katherine Richard, and Luke Shaefer, and Elizabeth Rhodes of OpenResearch, a lab running a <a href="https://www.openresearchlab.org/basic-income">separate long-term cash study</a>. Their papers analyze two different rounds of <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/4/21/21228574/coronavirus-cash-transfers-givedirectly-project-100">$1,000 cash grants from the charity GiveDirectly</a>, which distributed the money to American households in May 2020 and again in October that year. The money was targeted at low-income people, with recipients recruited from a mobile app that helps users manage their SNAP/food stamps benefits.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uu3t1r">
After surveying recipients, as well as a control group of non-recipients, the researchers found no differences between the two groups on any of the five outcomes they were interested in: material hardship, mental health challenges, partner conflict, child behavior problems, and parenting problems.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Zqwb1r">
In the study covering the May 2020 payments, they did find some reduction in material hardship among very low-income households specifically, and some weak evidence that mental health improved. But that was about it. And in October, there weren’t even those silver linings — even in the subgroups, no significant effects were found.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JSbBP0">
The <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4154000">third study</a> comes from a different team (Harvard’s Ania Jaroszewicz and Jon Jachimowicz and the University of Exeter’s Oliver Hauser and Julian Jamison) and has a slightly different design: their paper analyzed a cash payment program where 1,374 recipients got $500, 699 recipients got $2,000, and a control group got nothing. The median household receiving money earned $1,028 a month or $12,336 a year, <a href="https://aspe.hhs.gov/topics/poverty-economic-mobility/poverty-guidelines/prior-hhs-poverty-guidelines-federal-register-references/2020-poverty-guidelines">below the poverty line for a single person</a>, much less for a family. Like the Michigan researchers’ papers, the funds were disbursed slightly after the pandemic started, but in this case the transfers were made gradually: from July 2020 to May 2021.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oqkOrG">
(Side note: The paper states that the transfers were funded by “a national non-profit organization that specializes in providing low-income individuals unrestricted cash transfers.” In an email, Jaroszewicz stated that the funder wished to remain anonymous.)
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rRdt49">
The Harvard/Exeter team came to the same conclusion as the Michigan team: the authors found “no evidence that [cash] had positive impacts on our pre-specified survey outcomes at any time point.” If anything, they found <em>negative</em> outcomes for recipients’ reported financial, medical, and psychological well-being — though the authors argue that this is likely due to study attrition, and are careful to limit their conclusion to “cash did nothing positive” rather than “cash caused harm.”
</p>
<h3 id="BSvkNA">
Why didn’t cash help?
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GfPsev">
So … what the hell happened? Why didn’t giving very low-income Americans as much as $2,000 lead to them reporting greater financial security, better mental health, even just being <em>happier</em>?
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="sSRNLC">
The Harvard/Exeter team posits an interesting reason: getting the money reminded recipients that they were poor, without doing much to change that long-term condition, which in turn led to worse psychological health and lower happiness among recipients. Recipients reported thinking more about money, reported more financial needs in their life, and were likelier to say they were stressed about how to spend the money than people who <em>didn’t</em> get the money. This points to the checks raising the “salience” of people’s financial needs, which in turn caused them distress.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aekNYK">
Both teams of researchers bring up survey attrition as a possible explanation: it was common for both recipients and control group members to decline to complete the follow-up surveys, and it was possible that those who didn’t complete the surveys differed systematically from those who did, in ways that affected the results. This is the same kind of problem that led to <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor">US electoral polls in 2016 and 2020 being wildly off</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pGqCyl">
There’s also the fact that 2020, as you may dimly recall, was a <em>weird time.</em> This isn’t just because there was an ongoing pandemic with no vaccine yet, accompanied by severe isolation that <a href="https://www.vox.com/22174464/covid-cases-anxiety-depression-mental-health">significantly affected people’s mental and physical health</a>. Thanks to <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22213822/will-americans-get-another-stimulus-check">unprecedented federal actions</a>, low-income Americans were also in an unusually good financial situation.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TaZ5Rt">
In all three studies, recipients had gotten stimulus checks worth $1,200 per adult and $500 per child just a few months before. Some of the recipients in the Harvard/Exeter study also received the December 2020 checks worth $600 each and the March 2021 checks worth $1,400 each. Many recipients in all three studies likely benefited from greatly enhanced unemployment insurance payments. UI recipients had <a href="https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/institute/pdf/when-unemployment-insurance-benefits-are-rolled-back-research-brief.pdf">median incomes much lower than the general population</a>, especially recipients through the new Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, making the program highly progressive.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="E0DE6i">
It seems plausible that <em>another</em> one-off payment didn’t register the same way amid much larger federal interventions — especially the UI benefit which offered regular infusions of cash.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="HdswpY">
And moreover, the US is a rich country! It was, ironically, given the conditions, an unusually prosperous place for low-income people in 2020. If you want to compare GiveDirectly’s cash transfers in the US to those in extremely poor villages in sub-Saharan Africa, the enormous gap in economic outcomes in the two places is very relevant.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Fymy50">
The Harvard/Exeter authors note that the $2,000 checks they studied represented about 16 percent of the typical recipient’s annual household income. By contrast, the landmark <a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/131/4/1973/2468874?redirectedFrom=fulltext">2016 paper studying</a> GiveDirectly’s program in Kenya involved a transfer equal to about two years’ worth of household consumption (a number not too different from income, among low-income people without much savings or access to formal loans). A check worth 200 percent of your annual income is obviously very different from one worth 16 percent! <em>Of course</em> the former would have stronger effects.
</p>
<h3 id="PoGJAT">
The studies we need
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fRqhKI">
We also might be getting to a point of diminishing returns on what we can learn from studies of one-time cash drops, especially when the outcome variables of interest are the usual suspects of financial, mental, and physical well-being.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LWKzcq">
Cash programs have been studied a <em>lot</em>. In 2016, the UK-based Overseas Development Institute (ODI) think tank conducted an <a href="https://odi.org/en/publications/cash-transfers-what-does-the-evidence-say-a-rigorous-review-of-impacts-and-the-role-of-design-and-implementation-features/">evidence review on cash programs that looked at an astonishing 165 different studies</a>. That was six years ago, and the evidence base has only grown since with the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/2/19/21112570/universal-basic-income-ubi-map">vast number of basic income pilots around the world</a>, as well as one-off cash programs like the ones studied above.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vYTDA4">
You can draw a few conclusions from the vastness of the evidence base on cash. One is that a handful of new studies shouldn’t massively change your views on the topic. If there were only one prior paper anywhere in the world studying a cash drop like those described above, a single new study would double the evidence base. It would be a big deal and should adjust your views substantially. But going from 165 to 166 studies isn’t a radical change.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5iO230">
Secondly, it’s worth asking if the research community is focusing resources toward the most important questions remaining about cash. The ODI report concluded that, on average, cash has a number of beneficial effects in terms of reducing poverty, building assets, and improving health. There may be diminishing returns in rich countries with extensive safety nets, as detailed in the new studies above. But overall the evidence that giving people money reduces deprivation is strong.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vAADTH">
Adding nuances to this story, like the point at which diminishing returns set in, is important, and if a group is doing transfers <em>anyway</em>, as seemed to be the case with GiveDirectly, you might as well run a study of the effort alongside it.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="i2dF2l">
But there are major unanswered questions about cash that don’t have nearly this much evidence behind them. Do people, for instance, fare better (on any number of metrics) if they get a large lump sum or if they get smaller monthly payments? Does the method of payment (check v. mobile app v. prepaid debit card) matter? Does knowledge of where the money comes from, whether from the government or a charity or a subnational arm of government, matter? What are the macroeconomic effects of a large cash program? I know of <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/11/25/20973151/givedirectly-basic-income-kenya-study-stimulus">only one major randomized study on the latter question</a>, but it’s very important, and something that ordinary random studies can’t elucidate.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yCSwYH">
Perhaps the biggest question outstanding about cash programs is about their <em>political economy</em>: if cash programs are, on the merits, often superior to programs giving aid in-kind (in the form of housing or food or what have you), why are they comparatively rare? Why don’t politicians like passing them? Why do programs like the <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23056876/expanded-child-tax-credit-poverty-american-families-impact">expanded child tax credit</a> in the US fail in legislatures, while <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welfare_Reform_Act_2012">efforts like the UK Tories’ to slash cash benefits in 2012</a> succeeded?
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OpW67g">
The longtime DC safety-net policy analyst Robert Greenstein has a new <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/targeting-universalism-and-other-factors-affecting-social-programs-political-strength/">paper looking at some of these questions</a>. He tries to locate factors that explain whether a government safety-net program grew or shrank in the US over the last 40 years. Programs tied to work and that extend to the middle class as well as the poor do better; so do ones that are federally funded and administered.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fsep5z">
But one key factor is that successful growing programs “provide benefits either in-kind or through the tax code rather than as straight cash,” as Greenstein writes. Programs for the elderly or disabled are an exception to this rule, but generally “straight cash” is bad for a program’s survival. Look at the demise of Aid to Families with Dependent Children, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/6/20/11789988/clintons-welfare-reform">a cash welfare program ended in 1997</a>, and the relative flourishing of food stamps, just as one example.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Hld4bh">
Greenstein’s paper is not the only one analyzing these questions (see Yale’s Zachary Liscow and Abigail Pershing’s recent study <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3672415">showing in-kind programs are more popular among Americans than cash ones</a>). But this is a line of research that’s crucially important for the fate of cash and has much less in the way of resources behind it than studies looking at cash’s direct effects on recipients.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ZHjrMu">
Again, I’m appreciative of new research on cash’s immediate effects. The three studies above certainly complicated my views a bit. But for people interested in cash programs, they’re the beginning, not the end, of the road. To make progress, the research agenda has to move forward a bit, from what cash does to how to make cash happen.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="k8CDl4">
<em>A version of this story was initially published in the Future Perfect newsletter. </em><a href="https://confirmsubscription.com/h/d/A2BA26698741513A"><em><strong>Sign up here to subscribe!</strong></em></a>
</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Goa cannot host National Games before December, says Goa Sports Minister Govind Gaude</strong> - Indian Olympics Association (IOA) had asked the Goa government to host the National Games from September 6 to 16</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Rajini and Balappa clinch fourth straight victory</strong> - Ahamed wins a thriller</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Football transfer news | Raheem Sterling signs for Chelsea; Vinicius Jr. extends Real Madrid contract; and more</strong> - After starting his senior career with Liverpool, Sterling moved to City in July 2015 and established himself as a regular in their frontline, netting 131 times in 337 games for Pep Guardiola’s side</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Yuki-Saketh pair wins third Challenger of the season</strong> - Puts it across top-seeded Borges-Cabral duo in Portugal</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Govt. bats for India XI vs World XI cricket match on Aug. 22 as part of I-Day celebrations, writes to BCCI</strong> - While it is yet to be confirmed, the match, if conducted, is likely to be held at Delhi's Feroz Shah Kotla ground</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>India stands with people of Sri Lanka: MEA</strong> - “We are aware of the many challenges that Sri Lanka and its people have been facing.”</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Udaipur tailor killing | NIA arrests seventh person</strong> - Farhad Mohammad Sheikh a ‘close criminal associate’ of Riyaz Akhtari</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Hopes of finding survivors in Amarnath flash floods fading</strong> - “We are still hopeful but anyone still alive under that debris will be a miracle,” a State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) official said</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>TMC claims Mamata not invited to Sealdah Metro station inauguration; BJP calls it ‘taste of its own medicine’</strong> - Commercial services between Sector V in Salt Lake and Sealdah in Kolkata are set to commence on July 14</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Congress’ new found aggression in its communication strategy</strong> - ‘Every single day. And every word you say. Every game you play. We’ll be watching you,’ new head of the media and publicity wing Pawan Khera tells the media in a tweet</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Russian rockets kill 15 in Chasiv Yar housing block, Ukraine says</strong> - Many are also feared to be trapped in the rubble of the apartment block in eastern Ukraine.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>RAF fighter jets deploy to Sweden and Finland training exercises</strong> - Six fighters, including two of the latest F-35s, fly to the prospective Nato members for joint exercises.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Russia-Ukraine war: Moscow politician gets 7 years for denouncing war</strong> - Councillor Alexei Gorinov gets reportedly the first jail term under a law criminalising dissent.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Sepp Blatter and Michel Platini found not guilty following fraud trial</strong> - Former Fifa president Sepp Blatter and vice-president Michel Platini have been found not guilty following their fraud trial.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Italians wait for rain where longest river runs dry</strong> - Farmers in the north fear for the future as the River Po runs dry in the worst drought in 70 years.</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>“Downright nasty” weather couldn’t stop the 100th Pikes Peak hillclimb</strong> - Some drivers dare to scale the summit in unique, vintage beasts. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1865342">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Meta removes Facebook account mandate from Quest VR—but is that enough?</strong> - Op-ed: I welcome the removal of FB-VR mandate, but ToS still has me concerned. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1865119">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Yet another omicron subvariant is raising concern as BA.5 sweeps the US</strong> - BA.2.75 is spreading quickly and widely. Three cases detected in US so far. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1865296">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Musk ends bid to buy Twitter [Updated]</strong> - Elon Musk’s buyer’s remorse could be very expensive. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1865085">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Google proposes moving ad business to Alphabet to keep regulators at bay</strong> - But is there any demonstrable difference between Google and parent company Alphabet? - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1865172">link</a></p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
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<li><strong>A family went to a nudist beach for their vacation.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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The young son came back to the tent and said, “Wow, Mom! You should see some of those girls. They’ve got these HUGE…”
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“Yes, well,” his mother sniffs. “The larger they are, the dumber the woman.”
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Next day the boy comes back to the tent again. “You wouldn’t believe some of the guys out there. They have these HUGE…”
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“Yes, well, like I said, the bigger they are, the dumber the man.”
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“Really?” the boy said, frowning with puzzlement. “We might be in trouble, Mom.”
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“Why, honey?”
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"Because Dad’s out there talking to a really stupid girl, and he’s getting dumber by the minute.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/ChonkyHuskey2173"> /u/ChonkyHuskey2173 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/vv702m/a_family_went_to_a_nudist_beach_for_their_vacation/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/vv702m/a_family_went_to_a_nudist_beach_for_their_vacation/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><strong>A priest was approached one night by Satan himself.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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“Do not be frightened,” said Satan. “I have an offer to make. I will make you tremendously powerful, famous and rich in return for just one small favour: half of your ability to hear.”
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The priest was stunned. “Let me think about it for a few days.”
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The next morning, the priest requested to meet the bishop. “Your Excellency, I need your advice for a temptation I have been given!” He told over his strange encounter. The bishop was shocked. “A deal with Satan?! Do not do it, it will destroy your soul!”
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But he could see the priest was not convinced. So the bishop arranged a meeting with the archbishop. “Your Excellency, this priest has an urgent matter he needs advice about!” He told over the story. The archbishop bowed his head in silent prayer, and after a few moments responded. “Firstly, your hearing is a gift from God. It would be forbidden to sacrifice any part of it. Secondly, a deal with Satan?!? Never do it!”
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But the priest wasn’t convinced. He was imagining all the wealth, fame and power he’d receive. So the archbishop requested an audience with the Pope.
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The three of them came into the Papal office in great awe. They sat, and the archbishop spoke. “Your Holiness, this priest has a terrible temptation and needs advice!”
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“Sorry, could you speak a little louder?” Asked the Pope.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/ExtraSure"> /u/ExtraSure </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/vvais3/a_priest_was_approached_one_night_by_satan_himself/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/vvais3/a_priest_was_approached_one_night_by_satan_himself/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><strong>My buddy asked me how I got ahold of Kevin Bacon’s phone number</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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Told him I know a guy <sup>who knows a guy</sup> <sup><sup>who</sup></sup> <sup><sup>knows</sup></sup> <sup><sup>a</sup></sup> <sup><sup>guy</sup></sup> <sup><sup><sup>who</sup></sup></sup> <sup><sup><sup>knows</sup></sup></sup> <sup><sup><sup>a</sup></sup></sup> <sup><sup><sup>guy</sup></sup></sup>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/yer--mum"> /u/yer–mum </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/vvjoti/my_buddy_asked_me_how_i_got_ahold_of_kevin_bacons/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/vvjoti/my_buddy_asked_me_how_i_got_ahold_of_kevin_bacons/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><strong>The whole family are having breakfast together when…</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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The young Grandson looks over at his 18 year old newlywed wife and asks her, “Will you pass the honey, honey?” She giggles and passes the honey.
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His father, not to be outdone, looks over to his beautiful wife and asks, “Will you pass the sugar, sugar?” She laughs, “Your still a charmer,” and passes the sugar.
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The Grandfather looks up, makes eye contact with his wife of 55 years and asks, “Will you pass the tea… bag?”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/RockIngChairDad"> /u/RockIngChairDad </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/vvo65m/the_whole_family_are_having_breakfast_together/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/vvo65m/the_whole_family_are_having_breakfast_together/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><strong>Ever since Bader Ginsburg died…</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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… The American Supreme Court has been Ruthless.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Molto_Ritardando"> /u/Molto_Ritardando </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/vv3utz/ever_since_bader_ginsburg_died/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/vv3utz/ever_since_bader_ginsburg_died/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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