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<title>16 December, 2023</title>
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<title>Daily-Dose</title><meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" name="viewport"/><link href="styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><link href="../styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><style>*{overflow-x:hidden;}</style><link href="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.css" rel="stylesheet"/><script src="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.js"></script></head>
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<body>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>How a Student Group Is Politicizing a Generation on Palestine</strong> - Activists with Students for Justice in Palestine have mobilized major campus demonstrations in support of Gaza—and provided an intellectual framework for protesters watching what’s happening in the Middle East. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-education/how-a-generation-is-being-politicized-on-palestine">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The U.N. Human-Rights Chief and the Fugitive Princess of Dubai</strong> - Michelle Bachelet’s private meeting with Sheikha Latifa bint Mohammed Al Maktoum was viewed as proof that a long-imprisoned royal was finally free. In her first interview about the encounter, Bachelet reveals her doubts. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-un-human-rights-chief-and-the-fugitive-princess-of-dubai">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Congressional Christmas Gift to Putin</strong> - Biden’s signature support for Ukraine goes from “as long as it takes” to “as long as we can.” - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/a-congressional-christmas-gift-to-putin">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Watching Rudy Giuliani Self-Destruct at a Defamation Trial in Washington</strong> - A jury decided that Giuliani owes two election workers whom he defamed nearly a hundred and fifty million dollars. Even his lawyer suggested he “hasn’t been so great lately.” - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/watching-rudy-giuliani-self-destruct-at-a-defamation-trial-in-washington">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Harrowing Detention in Gaza</strong> - A Palestinian writer is mistaken for a Hamas activist by Israeli forces while he tries to flee Gaza with his family. Plus, a story of Christmas at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/the-new-yorker-radio-hour/a-harrowing-detention-in-gaza">link</a></p></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>Black and Latino Americans haven’t experienced the same economy as everyone else</strong> -
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<figure>
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<img alt="President Joe Biden arrives to speak about his Bidenomics agenda at Tioga Marine Terminal in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/C0r4Pcm22ewy9nW3QKKl5NZ_WQY=/869x0:7760x5168/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72969219/1723099595.0.jpg"/>
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<figcaption>
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President Joe Biden arrives to speak about his Bidenomics agenda at Tioga Marine Terminal in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP via Getty Images
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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For these families, the last few years’ economic tumult has been particularly pronounced.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oBeAn0">
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Of all the difficult questions Democrats face ahead of 2024, two storylines are particularly confounding. The first is the <a href="https://www.vox.com/economy">economy</a>: Most Americans are still pretty pissed about its state, even though economists can point to plenty of positive indicators. And the second is in the polling: <a href="https://www.vox.com/joe-biden">Joe Biden</a> <a href="https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/23873568/biden-polling-black-latino-voters-2024-election-trump">continues to underperform</a> among Black and Latino Americans, who are a significant part of the Democratic base.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="paU1z3">
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Those two features are likely connected. And understanding that connection might offer some greater insights into why today’s vibes remain so lousy.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OBaNhC">
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Those vibes are independent of whether the economy is “good” or “bad” in any objective sense. That’s a political hornet’s nest, particularly when Biden’s economic record will be front and center in 2024 — and it will likely matter less than how voters are feeling when they go to the polls. Some pundits argue that the sour feelings about the economy are a reflection of real-world conditions and lived experience, while others argue that it’s a perception issue, and that the economy is objectively lifting Americans’ fortunes.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6yw8VY">
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But not all Americans live under the same economic conditions, and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2023/12/04/wealth-surged-in-the-pandemic-but-debt-endures-for-poorer-black-and-hispanic-families/">two</a> <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Research/Interactives/Data/equitable-growth-indicators/downloads/10_2023_EGI_national_FULL">recent</a> reports shed light on the different economic experiences of Black and Latino Americans.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BMXIZc">
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The news is, in short, a mixed bag. One study found that during the height of the <a href="https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19">Covid-19 pandemic</a>, years that included the end of Trump’s term and the beginning of Biden’s, Black and Latino households made gains in accumulating wealth. But in the years that followed, those gains slowed significantly or even reversed.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rLUi8z">
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Part of that slide was due to inflation, the main economic villain of the Biden years. Another <a href="https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/01/inflation-disparities-by-race-and-income-narrow/">2023 study</a> found that Black and Latino households suffered more from inflation than their white counterparts, as the higher costs of <a href="https://www.vox.com/transportation">transportation</a> and food took bigger bites out of their paychecks. But it’s not all bad news: There’s evidence that real wages — the value of workers’ pay when inflation is taken into account — grew for Black and Latino workers in recent years, and even that it grew faster for them than for workers overall.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YkoSyf">
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Still, those silver linings do not seem like they’re putting Black and <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/5/4/23708278/joe-biden-kamala-harris-2024-election-latino-voters-julie-chavez-rodriguez">Latino voters</a> in a good mood about the nation’s economic environment. In <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-registered-voters.html">the New York Times’s surveys</a> of battleground states, Black voters, a loyal Democratic constituency, view the economy as negatively as white voters. And Latino voters viewed the economy more negatively than white voters in these states.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="VhdGXW">
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It’s worth breaking down these studies for answers on why that might be so.
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</p>
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<h3 id="WI79oB">
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The early pandemic years saw Black and Latino families make economic gains
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FGzVUo">
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Despite the initial shock of mass unemployment and fears about just how much lasting damage the Covid-19 pandemic would do to people of color in the US, it turns out that the worst of the pandemic years saw significant financial benefits for low-income and working-class Black and Latino families.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="IQA4PH">
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The clearest positive sign was an increase in wealth. The typical US household saw its <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/changes-in-us-family-finances-from-2019-to-2022.htm">wealth increase</a> by about 37 percent from 2019 to 2022, even after adjusting for inflation, according to analysis from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors. Those are overall numbers, but a <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2023/12/04/wealth-gaps-within-racial-and-ethnic-groups/">recent report from the Pew Research Center</a> suggests that those gains in wealth were shared by the lowest-income Black and Latino households. (By “wealth,” Pew means net worth — or the sum of all the investments, property, and savings a family has, with debt subtracted from that figure.)
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FVlldW">
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That greater wealth was born of a combination of factors. The job market recovered quickly after the economy began to open up, and competition for workers led to better wages for employees, who either got raises at their workplace or moved to better-paying jobs. Stocks and investments delivered better returns, while home values rose quickly. Families built up their savings during the pandemic, while the federal government gave out huge amounts of assistance. That help, which came in the form of direct stimulus payments, tax credits, or small business aid, was especially impactful for lower- and middle-income families.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="u3kqAY">
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The fact that low-income and working-class Black and Latino Americans saw their wealth increase during these years did not, by any stretch of the imagination, vault them into the upper class. The median low-income Black household, for example, was able to cut debt by about $6,000 — an improvement, but one that left them still in debt and with a negative net worth. The median low-income Latino household, meanwhile, was able to cut debt by about $1,000 and get itself out of debt. But even that growth meant achieving a net worth of zero.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="UjMqkC">
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And despite Black and Latino households gaining wealth during these years, the massive gap in actual wealth between Black and Hispanic families and white families actually grew. In 2019, the typical white household had $168,800 more in wealth than the typical Latino family, according to Pew. By 2021, that gap had grown by nearly $33,000.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fstgq4">
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Even among Black and Latino households only, those pandemic gains were still uneven. Richer Black and Latino families still did better than poorer ones. And despite increases in wealth across both richer and poorer families, richer households still held the overwhelming majority of wealth going into 2022. This uneven recovery meant that those <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2023/12/04/wealth-gaps-within-racial-and-ethnic-groups/">who were already better off benefitted more</a> in absolute terms.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="sQof23">
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But despite being uneven, the pandemic-era gains were still improvements. They were meaningful in getting families through a crisis and helping them improve their finances, even if for a brief moment. The next two years would bring more challenges, including some that would make many families, including Black and Latino households, feel like they were taking a step back.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="HNZEn0">
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Inflation picked up quickly starting in the second half of 2021, and many of the factors that contributed to the pandemic-era wealth boost either changed direction or became less favorable for all families. And incomes fell. As <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2023/12/04/wealth-surged-in-the-pandemic-but-debt-endures-for-poorer-black-and-hispanic-families/">Pew’s report notes</a>, after rising during the peak of the pandemic, the pre-tax income of US households then fell by 2.3 percent. After-tax income fell even more (8.8 percent), likely because federal stimulus payments stopped and tax breaks like the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/9/21/23882353/child-poverty-expanded-child-tax-credit-census-welfare-inflation-economy-data">expanded</a> child tax credit ended.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aXOGUA">
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Meanwhile, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/spending-consumers-inflation-economy-growth-federal-reserve-b1d34bc43a0da960a152911b7c230881">spending remained high</a> as pandemic-era savings were used to offset inflation and address pent-up demand — which also slowly drained some of the wealth that had been accumulated, including by lower-income Black and Latino households, Pew notes. Home values, which had been increasing quickly in 2021, slowed down in 2022. And mortgage rates doubled as the Federal Reserve began responding to inflation.
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</p>
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<h3 id="p0Xj5J">
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Inflation became a huge problem in 2021, especially for Black and Latino families
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="M8vCgQ">
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When talking about economic concerns, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/upshot/economy-voters-poll.html">Black</a> and <a href="https://unidosus.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/unidosus_national_surveyoflatinovoters.pdf">Latino</a> survey respondents in recent years are usually talking about inflation. And there’s good reason for this: Not everyone was affected by inflation in the same way. Inflation inequality — what the Federal Reserve Bank of New York calls the uneven rates of inflation experienced by different subgroups of Americans — got worse for Black and Latino families over the last two years.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TguZQR">
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New York Fed analysts did a <a href="https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/01/inflation-disparities-by-race-and-income-narrow/">deep dive</a> into this question earlier this year, looking at the subcategories of spending that may have put greater strain on the <a href="https://www.vox.com/personal-finance">personal finances</a> of Asian American, Black, Latino, and white families. Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — specifically, CPI numbers (which track inflation) and the Consumer Expenditure Survey (which tracks how subgroups spend their money) — the analysts found a stark difference in how inflation played out throughout 2021 and 2022.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Z5wKus">
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Black and Latino Americans experienced “steadily higher price increases relative to the overall average between early 2021 and June 2022,” largely because of the way prices increased for transportation (specifically the price of cars and gasoline) and food. A few things explain this: larger families than white or Asian American households, different jobs that require different modes of transportation, and the kind of urban communities in which they live. But the evidence the analysts found is convincing: Black and Hispanic families spent a bigger portion of their paycheck on these more costly things than Asian American and white families did.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Bv0OAv">
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Those disparities were biggest for Latinos when it came to spending on food, used cars, and gasoline, the <a href="https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/01/inflation-disparities-by-race-and-income-narrow/">New York Fed analysts</a> found. And compared to white families, both Black and Latino families spent a bigger share of their paychecks on housing as well.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="d2EQGr">
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As overall inflation rates have declined, these gaps have also shrunk, according to the New York Fed’s report. But they’re not entirely gone. And if you look at how inflation rates vary depending on income, you also see another disparity: For most of 2021 and 2022, it was middle-income families that felt the biggest crunch from inflation. But about halfway through 2022 and into 2023, the burden of inflation got worse for low-income families — which disproportionately tend to be Black and Latino households.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="u1T6xL">
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Into 2023, according to <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/Research/Interactives/Data/equitable-growth-indicators/downloads/10_2023_EGI_national_inflation">the New York Fed’s latest update</a>, those gaps still exist despite improvements. But Black and Latino families have also experienced another positive change in the last few years. Real wages, or the amount of money workers make after taking into account inflation, have steadily increased for Black and Latino workers since the pandemic’s onset, <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31010/w31010.pdf">a November working paper</a> from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) confirmed. Despite some volatility throughout the last couple of years, Black and Latino workers are making more money than they did before the pandemic. This matches <a href="https://www.nber.org/digest/20235/pandemic-related-shifts-low-wage-labor-markets">another trend</a> these NBER authors found earlier in the year: Real wages for the least-well-off workers, who disproportionately tend to be Black or Latino, have also been improving in the last two years. This is one reason why inflation isn’t a full picture of economic well-being. If wages (and other sources of income) remain higher than inflation, then households can still be better off — even if they’re paying higher sticker prices.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ufTPfn">
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That doesn’t mean, however, that people <em>feel</em> better off.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Xwzvps">
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In the New York Times poll, only 19 percent of Black voters and 14 percent of Latino voters had a generally positive view of the economy. (Twenty percent of white voters had a positive view.) Meanwhile, 48 percent of Black voters and 50 percent of Latino voters rated the economy as “poor.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0iHQE3">
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While Black and Latino households have faced particular headwinds in recent years, and reaped fewer benefits from pandemic-era stimulus relative to already better-off white households, they’re not alone in feeling disgruntled: 52 percent of white voters rated the economy as “poor” in the same New York Times poll, more than either Black or Latino voters.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="8jOMwj">
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For the Democratic Party, however, the frustrations of voters of color should be sounding some particularly loud alarms with the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2024-elections">2024 election</a> on the horizon. For one, there’s a <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/04/07/evaluations-of-the-economy-and-the-state-of-the-nation/">partisan gap in how voters feel about the economy</a>, and white voters make up a far larger share of the Republican electorate. And second, a turnout problem among voters of color, fueled by flagging economic satisfaction, would be a much bigger deal for Democratic candidates — including Joe Biden.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="IgZNAo">
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In other words, Democrats have a long way to go if they’re going to convince Black and Latino voters that today’s economy is anything to celebrate. And with election year approaching, they have relatively little time to do it.
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</p></li>
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<li><strong>What happens in Ukraine if US aid disappears?</strong> -
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<figure>
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<img alt="Biden and Zelensky enter a room, with the US and Ukraine flags on either side of them." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FXlnwWX34UrSj3PC70V811mXNrY=/195x0:3306x2333/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72969154/GettyImages_1843522563.0.jpg"/>
|
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<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
US President Joe Biden, right, and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrive during a news conference in the Indian Treaty Room on the White House complex, in Washington, DC, on December 12, 2023. | Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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</figcaption>
|
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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Should Congress fail to extend aid to Ukraine, it would “change the character of the war.”
|
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TeeoVv">
|
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|
For nearly two years, Ukraine has fought back against <a href="https://www.vox.com/russia">Russia</a>’s invasion far more effectively and successfully than many expected. But whether it’s able to continue that resistance may depend on the results of a debate in Washington that has absolutely nothing to do with Ukraine. It’s a bizarre and uncomfortable situation for the embattled country and its leading advocates.
|
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gueXjg">
|
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|
“In the hands of these senators and representatives is the future of Ukraine and the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians,” Daria Kaleniuk, a leading global campaigner for the Ukrainian cause and cofounder of the International Coalition for Ukrainian Victory, told Vox.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yvxKVs">
|
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|
But such urgency is not in evidence on Capitol Hil, at least at the moment. <a href="https://www.vox.com/congress">Congress</a> <a href="https://apnews.com/article/congress-ukraine-border-security-961a10ceb958e88c3c8d76cb04d225ce">departed</a> Washington for the year on Thursday without approving a new defense spending package that would include $61 billion in additional military funding for Ukraine. The <a href="https://www.vox.com/joe-biden">Biden administration</a> had proposed the aid as part of a larger package that also includes military assistance for <a href="https://www.vox.com/israel">Israel</a> and Taiwan, humanitarian aid for several conflicts, and funding for border security.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yH75S1">
|
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|
Congressional Republicans have conditioned support for new Ukraine funding on concessions from the administration on <a href="https://www.vox.com/immigration">immigration policy</a>, which are strongly opposed by Democrats. That left President Joe Biden’s shifting his oft-stated pledge to support Ukraine for “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/07/12/remarks-by-president-biden-on-supporting-ukraine-defending-democratic-values-and-taking-action-to-address-global-challenges-vilnius-lithuania/">as long as it takes</a>” to “<a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/12/13/biden-and-scholz-hedge-on-wests-support-for-ukraine-00131611">as long as we can</a>” during a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House during the Ukrainian president’s disappointing visit to DC to drum up support this week.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="k0NuKF">
|
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|
It’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/2023/12/14/23981077/immigration-deal-biden-senate-asylum-ukraine">still very possible</a> that an immigration deal will be reached that allows the Ukraine funding to go forward when Congress returns next month. Kaleniuk remains cautiously optimistic that the issue will be resolved somehow, saying, “I believe in the wisdom of the American people.”
|
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|
|
</p>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bvOFrg">
|
|||
|
|
But even if the flow of aid resumes, it may only be a temporary reprieve. Opponents of aid to Ukraine in the US and Europe are growing bolder. A $52 billion financial support plan from the <a href="https://www.vox.com/european-union">European Union</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/14/world/europe/eu-ukraine-hungary-aid.html">was also blocked this week</a> because of opposition from Hungary.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nCxlIi">
|
|||
|
|
Meanwhile, even some of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters are distracted and divided by other crises including the war in <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/11/20/18080046/gaza-palestine-israel">Gaza</a>. <a href="https://www.vox.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>, who <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/donald-trump-ukraine-putin-farage-b2331973.html">has vowed</a> to end the <a href="https://www.vox.com/russia-invasion-ukraine">war in Ukraine</a> in “one day” — presumably by cutting a deal with Russia — is now <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-takes-2024-lead-as-biden-approval-hits-new-low-wsj-poll-finds-fb4fca0c">leading in many presidential polls</a> and may very well return to the White House next year.
|
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|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hMJlSi">
|
|||
|
|
American aid has made it possible for Ukraine to fight back against Russia’s invasion over the past 21 months. But Ukrainians and their supporters now need to ask themselves: What would happen if that aid simply disappeared?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="zCLx2k">
|
|||
|
|
Barrel, meet bottom
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5XO8Ri">
|
|||
|
|
The United States has provided more than $71 billion in aid to Ukraine since the start of the war. That includes $43.9 billion in military assistance, more than the next 11 donating countries combined, according to a tracker maintained by <a href="https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/">Germany’s Kiel Institute</a>.
|
|||
|
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</p>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zRkZ2U">
|
|||
|
|
But that money is almost fully drained. As of mid-November, the Defense Department had spent <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/briefing-room/2023/12/04/letter-to-congressional-leadership-regarding-the-need-for-urgent-action-to-support-ukraines-defense/">97 percent of the funds</a> it had been allocated by Congress for assistance to Ukraine. The State Department had spent 100 percent of its funds. In November, Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3586025/deputy-pentagon-press-secretary-sabrina-singh-holds-a-press-briefing/">acknowledged</a> that her department’s regularly announced allocations of new weapon deliveries “have been getting smaller because we have had to meter out our support for Ukraine.” The Kiel Institute’s data shows that new commitments of international support for Ukraine fell almost 90 percent between August and October of this year and are now at their <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-07/new-aid-to-ukraine-drops-to-lowest-level-since-war-began?sref=C3P1bRLC">lowest level</a> since the war began.
|
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</p>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1ARH3H">
|
|||
|
|
For all that the debate around aid to Ukraine has often focused on whether and when the country will get advanced weapons systems like Abrams battle tanks, F-16 fighter jets, and ATACMS missiles, the most critical supply Ukraine receives from the West is <a href="https://themessenger.com/news/ukraines-hunt-for-ammo-and-why-it-could-make-or-break-its-war-against-russia">old-fashioned artillery ammunition</a>. At times in the fighting, Ukraine has fired as many as 6,000 to 7,000 of these shells a day — about half of what the US produced in a month before the war. Since then, the US has made major investments in building up <a href="https://themessenger.com/grid/the-us-effort-to-arm-ukraine-starts-in-scranton-pennsylvania">shell production capacity</a>, but that process will likely take years. Ukrainian troops on the frontlines are <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67714719">already reporting shell shortages</a> as the aid packages dwindle.
|
|||
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</p>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GrciaH">
|
|||
|
|
Nearly as important is ammunition for the air defense systems used to protect Ukrainian cities from Russian missile barrages. These systems got a workout this week, shooting down 10 Russian missiles over <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/ukrainian-civilians-endure-russian-missile-barrage-cyberattack-c55bb286">Kyiv in a single morning</a>. The missile attacks are expected to ramp up this winter as Russia targets Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in an effort to punish and demoralize the Ukrainian population.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="Men in camouflaged uniforms stand beside a tank covered in ice in a snowy, wooded area." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RUQOlaxUxTeI60VhH51H4RDUxWE=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25165370/GettyImages_1850127765.jpg"/> <cite>Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Ukrainian tank crews take part in a military drill not far from the front line in the Bakhmut direction, in the Donetsk region, on December 15, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yQ8VYJ">
|
|||
|
|
If Washington fails to allocate new funds, the impact wouldn’t be felt in Kyiv the next day. There’s often a delay of several months between when weapons deliveries are announced and when they will be delivered. Armaments and equipment that were announced as far back as September may only be reaching the battlefield now.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PVwXCt">
|
|||
|
|
“One or two months gap: It’s not pleasant, but it’s not crucial for us,” Alina Frolova, a former deputy defense minister of Ukraine who now advises the government, told Vox.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ZfcK2H">
|
|||
|
|
Beyond that, things could get dicier. Even with the tens of billions in aid delivered thus far, Ukraine <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-stalled-russia-war-defenses/">has struggled</a> to retake Russian-held territory this year. The counteroffensive that began in June has advanced only about a dozen miles. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, recently described the war as having entered a phase of “<a href="https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/11/01/the-commander-in-chief-of-ukraines-armed-forces-on-how-to-win-the-war">positional</a>” combat, one where the front lines remain static and most of the fighting is long-range artillery fire rather than troop maneuvers.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3WtMxo">
|
|||
|
|
But static doesn’t mean inaction, and just maintaining those positions requires an enormous amount of ammunition, much of it from the United States. What Ukraine can do from this point on largely depends on whether and how much US aid and ammunition they can draw from. Should that air be curtailed, “soon they won’t have enough to sustain the counteroffensive,” said <a href="https://www.csis.org/people/mark-f-cancian">Mark Cancian</a>, a retired US Marine colonel and expert on defense logistics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “In maybe two months, the Ukrainians will have a hard time doing counterattacks. By the summer, they’ll be hard-pressed to defend themselves against Russian attacks.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="5lr1ei">
|
|||
|
|
A new kind of fighting
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="B72j3N">
|
|||
|
|
In a recent poll, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/58-ukrainians-stand-continuing-fight-091049821.html#:~:text=Ukrayinska%20Pravda-,58%25%20of%20Ukrainians%20stand%20for%20continuing%20to%20fight%20Russia,even%20without%20Western%20help%20%E2%80%93%20infographic&text=Over%20half%20of%20Ukrainians%20believe,risk%20of%20losing%20new%20territories.">58 percent of Ukrainians</a> said the country should continue to fight Russia, even with a substantial reduction in international support, while 32 percent said the country should seek peace negotiations. But a negotiated end to the war requires a partner, and there’s little evidence that Russia would be open to negotiations.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="DWYPTU">
|
|||
|
|
In his annual marathon news conference on Thursday, President Vladimir Putin declared that his goals for the war “have not changed” since the start and that there would be peace only when those goals are achieved. He defined those goals as “the denazification of Ukraine, its demilitarization, its neutral status.” In other words, the goal is not control of a few more miles of territory in Eastern Ukraine — something that would hardly seem worth the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/12/us/politics/russia-intelligence-assessment.html">estimated 315,000 troops Russia has lost</a>, according to a newly declassified American intelligence assessment. It is regime change.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="dCF702">
|
|||
|
|
So both sides seem committed to continuing the war — but what would it look like if the US decides to bow out? “A failure to supply military aid to Ukraine isn’t going to cause an immediate Russian victory, but it is going to change the character of the war,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a defense analyst with the Center for a New American Security who has made multiple research trips to the front lines in Ukraine. Gady said that while Ukraine’s military has traditionally been an “artillery dominant military force,” without shells for those guns, “they would likely start pursuing more asymmetric strategies. That is, withdrawing from certain sectors of the front lines into urban settlements, trying to draw Russian forces into urban combat.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="AxBT8w">
|
|||
|
|
This scenario is a bit closer to what many analysts <a href="https://themessenger.com/grid/invading-ukraine-would-be-a-terrible-idea-for-putin-he-might-do-it-anyway?utm_source=onsite&utm_medium=related_story">expected the war in Ukraine to look like</a> before the February 2022 invasion, when few believed Ukraine’s military could stand up to Russia’s in conventional combat. It’s also a grim prospect for Ukraine’s civilians. Urban combat always has an extremely high civilian death toll and given the heavy-handed tactics employed by the Russian military, the list of Ukrainian cities and towns entirely decimated by war — Mariupol, Bakhmut — would likely to grow.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="TovjXO">
|
|||
|
|
Will Europe step up?
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Dyt6cH">
|
|||
|
|
Are there any workarounds to be found if Congress doesn’t act? Much of the funding allocated by Congress is actually to pay for replenishing <em>US </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/stock-market">stocks</a> for material shipped from American warehouses to Ukraine. In theory, the US could continue to ship weapons and ammunition to Ukraine without the money to replace them, but that seems unlikely given that officials have already been expressing concern about the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-push-to-restock-howitzer-shells-rockets-sent-to-ukraine-bogs-down-f604511a">strain the war is putting on US stockpiles</a>. (When asked if the Pentagon would consider such a scenario, a spokesperson told Vox that it would be “inappropriate to speculate on hypothetical situations.”)
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2PC0ej">
|
|||
|
|
As for whether the White House could find a way to continue to allocate funds without Congress, Cancian said, “I’m sure that they have lawyers scouring the statute books to find a way, but I’m not aware of any.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="UPnpl1">
|
|||
|
|
The US, of course, isn’t the only country supplying military aid to Ukraine. Relative to the size of their economies, many European countries have actually given more. Just this week, Zelenskyy met with Nordic officials on his way back from Washington, and the leaders of Norway and Denmark <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-surprise-visit-norway-2023-12-13/">pledged sizable new aid packages</a>. The <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-ukraine-f16-decision-russia-64538af7c10489d7c2243dadbad31008">much debated</a> F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine has been promised in the coming months are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-approves-sending-f-16s-ukraine-denmark-netherlands-2023-08-17/">likely to come out of the stocks</a> of European militaries and would still likely be sent, whatever Congress does in the coming weeks.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YnoJ6T">
|
|||
|
|
A report last week from Britain’s Royal United Services Institute urged European governments to make <a href="https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/europe-must-urgently-prepare-deter-russia-without-large-scale-us-support">major new investments in ammunition production</a> in order to meet the Russian military threat with diminished US support. But Europe’s efforts in this area so far <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/11/race-make-artillery-shells-us-eu-see-different-results/392288/">have been slower than those of the US.</a> Germany’s defense minister <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-miss-goal-1-million-shells-ukraine-germanys-pistorius-2023-11-14/">conceded last month</a> that the EU would miss its goal of providing Ukraine with a million shells by next March.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6lQTSi">
|
|||
|
|
Kaleniuk said the sheer size of America’s defense industrial complex makes it irreplaceable. The US <a href="https://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0053_defense-comparison">spends more on defense</a> than the next 10 countries combined. “A lack of aid from the US can’t be fulfilled by anyone else,” she said. “Europe is not able, even if it is willing, to produce enough military equipment for Ukraine.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pLSlQH">
|
|||
|
|
Europe is also experiencing its own fatigue with the war effort, as shown by the EU’s failure this week to overcome a veto by Hungary’s pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on a new aid package. A similarly Ukraine-skeptic government was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/new-slovak-government-rejects-final-military-aid-package-ukraine-2023-11-08/">recently elected in Slovakia</a>. Europe has been willing to overlook the threat from Russia before, including after the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014. If US support wavers, more countries may follow suit.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="Russian President Vladimir Putin sitting on a stage with a microphone." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6HFAwpHbxqgmOf4izy5Z5B-lCEQ=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25165374/GettyImages_1849864263.jpg"/> <cite>Contributor/Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures during his speech at the 4th Congress of Russian Railway Workers, on December 15, 2023, in Moscow, Russia.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="IcVhfC">
|
|||
|
|
“Everyone is saying the Europeans need to step up,” said Cancian. “It’s more likely they’re going to step back.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="PxKBDP">
|
|||
|
|
The costs to come
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="sFrhT3">
|
|||
|
|
Skeptics of aiding Ukraine argue that the US is committing itself to pumping billions of dollars into a war that has settled into a stalemate with no end in sight. New House Speaker Mike Johnson has, for instance, accused the White House of failing to articulate a <a href="https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1734702218488557763">clear path to victory </a>for Ukraine with US support.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="VawAK4">
|
|||
|
|
But if the stalemate is broken, the result is likely won’t be peace, but an even bloodier conflict moving much closer to the borders of NATO countries that the US is bound by treaty to defend. This doesn’t mean Putin’s military would necessarily <em>invade</em> Poland or the Baltic states in the aftermath of a victory in Ukraine. But, said Gady, “the end result would be a more destabilized eastern flank of NATO, and in the long term a much bigger security policy issue for the United States. That might [ultimately] require much more funding than the United States is spending right now.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="C0dWGh">
|
|||
|
|
Those security costs may only grow if other countries take the lesson from a defeat of Ukraine — which gave up the nuclear weapons on its territory in the 1990s in exchange for security guarantees from Russia and the United States — that they should acquire a nuclear deterrent of their own. This is particularly true for countries with their own belligerent neighbors. As former National Security Council Russia adviser Fiona Hill <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/12/fiona-hill-ukraine-putin-00131285">warned</a> in a recent interview with Politico, “we could face proliferation issues with Japan, South Korea, other countries — even NATO countries … They will start to worry about how much we would actually support them when they needed it, and how vulnerable they are to pressure or attack by another nuclear power.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3P6XMU">
|
|||
|
|
Earlier this year, in a speech in Warsaw after his landmark visit to Ukraine, Biden described Russia’s invasion as a test not only for Ukraine but for the United States and the democratic world. Russia, he said, had met the “iron will of America and the nations everywhere that refused to accept a world governed by fear and force.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Zkrnot">
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Other countries will take note if this iron will starts to bend.
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FJNDNh">
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</p></li>
|
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|
|
<li><strong>Biden weighs a “shocking” revival of Trump’s immigration agenda</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="Men, women, children, and babies stand in a line before a tall fence, some with bags at their feet." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZllIKmezrpUoyL9SOp-yMhyNDOk=/0x0:2667x2000/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72968218/1850407421.0.jpg"/>
|
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|
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<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Migrants attempting to cross into the United States from Mexico are detained at the border by US Customs and Border Protection on December 14, 2023, in Jacumba Hot Springs, California. | Nick Ut/Getty Images
|
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|
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</figcaption>
|
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</figure>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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The White House is reportedly open to making concessions to Republicans in its negotiations over aid to Ukraine and Israel that go far beyond border security.
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fR71Fm">
|
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|
It’s hard to overstate the potential destructiveness of the sweeping changes to US <a href="https://www.vox.com/immigration">immigration policy</a> currently being discussed as part of <a href="https://www.vox.com/joe-biden">President Joe Biden</a>’s negotiations with Republicans over aid for Ukraine and <a href="https://www.vox.com/israel">Israel</a>.
|
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FHVLgK">
|
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|
For weeks, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2023/12/14/23981077/immigration-deal-biden-senate-asylum-ukraine">Republicans have demanded Democrats adopt new, harsher US-Mexico border policies</a> in exchange for their support on a raft of foreign aid. The White House has reportedly conceded to significantly rolling back America’s historical commitments to asylum seekers and implementing a new system to crack down on undocumented immigrants already in the US. These mirror policies that former <a href="https://www.vox.com/donald-trump">President Donald Trump</a> — explicit in his intention to reduce US immigration levels, including legal immigration — had pursued while in office. That a Democratic administration would even contemplate them shows just how much Republicans have managed to shift what is politically acceptable on immigration in recent years.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="i5gADG">
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|
“It’s shocking that the Biden administration would be going along with this, but it appears for political reasons they are contemplating that. It’s very sad,” said Lee Gelernt, deputy director of the ACLU’s Immigrants’ Rights Project.
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="xANroE">
|
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|
|
<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/immigration-white-house-congress-border-security-detention-deportation/">Multiple</a><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/12/white-house-scrambles-in-last-ditch-effort-to-salvage-border-talks-00131421"> reports</a> have indicated that the White House is prepared to implement a new legal authority that would allow the US to rapidly expel migrants arriving on the border without processing their asylum claims. The new legislation would be similar to the Trump-era <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/23719941/title-42-ending-border-biden-trump">Title 42</a> policy, which operated on the grounds of temporarily curbing the spread of <a href="https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19">Covid-19</a>, but without the pandemic-related rationale — and permanent.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ktum96">
|
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|
|
The Biden administration has also reportedly said it would support <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/12/white-house-scrambles-in-last-ditch-effort-to-salvage-border-talks-00131421">expanding an existing legal authority known as “expedited removal”</a> to rapidly deport undocumented immigrants who do not request asylum or who fail their initial asylum screenings, without a hearing. Under the expansion, the US would be able to subject immigrants anywhere in the US to expedited removal, beyond the 100-mile perimeter of the border in which the authority currently applies.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BC8kp3">
|
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|
|
Furthermore, the White House has reportedly said that it would be willing to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/12/white-house-scrambles-in-last-ditch-effort-to-salvage-border-talks-00131421">mandate that migrants be detained</a> while awaiting their court dates in the US, a process that typically takes months or years. And some administration officials and Senate Democrats have said that they would be open to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/immigration-border-congress-humanitarian-parole-asylum-trump-5b5808183c1642bae520b7d9456cc36d">raising the standard</a> to pass what’s called a “credible fear” interview, one of the first steps in applying for asylum. Those who do not pass a credible fear interview can be subject to expedited removal.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5D5nWP">
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|
For its part, the White House has denied that it has taken any particular position on these proposals. “The White House has not signed off on any particular policy proposals or final agreements, and reporting that ascribes determined policy positions to the White House is inaccurate,” a White House spokesperson <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/12/white-house-scrambles-in-last-ditch-effort-to-salvage-border-talks-00131421">told Politico</a>.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OpfTyt">
|
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|
|
But a number of Democrats — particularly those in border districts and swing seats — have said they agree securing the border is necessary, as immigration authorities have recorded <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters">2.4 million migrant encounters</a> at the Southwest border in the last fiscal year, up from 1.7 million in 2021. “We’ve got a crisis at the border,” Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4361362-tensions-rise-among-democrats-over-looming-border-deal/">told the Hill</a>. “It’s critical we get this done. It’s also critical for Ukraine.”
|
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hM8vdH">
|
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|
But these measures, which are being considered without the input of many members who have fought for immigrant rights, go much further than that. If passed, they would represent some of the most <a href="https://x.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/1734972036261216269?s=20">anti-immigrant legislation in 30 years</a>. Moreover, many experts say they won’t actually succeed in deterring migrants from coming to the US.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9tELcP">
|
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|
|
“A return to Trump-era policies is not the fix,” Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) — the first Latino chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee’s subcommittee on immigration, citizenship, and border safety — said in a press conference earlier this week. “In fact, it will make the problem worse. Mass detention, gutting our asylum system, Title 42 on steroids. It is unconscionable.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="DiDTEv">
|
|||
|
|
Biden is considering making pandemic border restrictions permanent
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LVpriS">
|
|||
|
|
While Biden has taken some steps to expand immigration during his tenure, including <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/04/21/biden-administration-further-expands-temporary-protected-status-to-cover-afghanistan-cameroon-ukraine/">expanding Temporary Protected Status</a> and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/biden-immigration-policy-giving-temporary-legal-status-thousands-faces-rcna101383">humanitarian parole programs</a> to a slew of new countries, he’s also shown a willingness to embrace the strict policies of his predecessor. For instance, despite coming into office with a promise to roll back Trump’s anti-immigrant policies, Biden chose to maintain the Title 42 policy for more than two years. And he did so even as the pandemic waned, <a href="https://rollcall.com/2023/03/02/biden-push-to-end-title-42-border-policy-wont-end-the-legal-fights/">lawsuits</a> against the policy piled up, a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/04/top-state-adviser-leaves-post-title-42-515029">senior administration official</a> cited the policy in his resignation, and the policy became a political flashpoint on the left. Now, he appears willing to not only revive it, but to enshrine it in federal law.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fUup0E">
|
|||
|
|
The policy effectively shut out migrants arriving at the southern border from legal pathways to enter the US, with some limited exceptions. Rather than being evaluated for eligibility for asylum and other humanitarian protections that would allow them to remain in the US, as is their right under international and current US law, migrants were returned to Mexico within a matter of hours after crossing the border.
|
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|
|
</p>
|
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|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ScNFSU">
|
|||
|
|
Reinstating the policy would amount to the US turning its back on its promise after World War II to never again send people back to danger without a hearing, Gelernt said. The Biden administration has made efforts to cooperate with Latin American countries to improve their security and bolster their own asylum systems, but human rights organizations have documented the harms experienced by migrants who have been sent back or forced to remain in some of those countries. Human Rights First, for instance, reported that <a href="https://humanrightsfirst.org/library/asylum-ban-strands-asylum-seekers-and-migrants-in-mexico-and-returns-them-to-danger/">over 1,300 people</a> have experienced kidnapping, torture, rape, extortion, and other violence while stranded in Mexico due to Biden administration policies since mid-May. Despite this, the Biden administration has defended its ongoing policies that have kept migrants in Mexico, as well as <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy/2023/5/16/23725482/immigration-title-42-us-mexico-border-biden-trump-uscis-homeland-security">its decision to maintain Title 42 for so long</a>, as an important means of keeping the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/03/federal-court-biden-asylum-policy-00109797">border under control</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4ejEWC">
|
|||
|
|
However, immigration experts say that Title 42 was never effective in reducing the number of people arriving on the border. When Title 42 was in place, it actually led more people to <a href="https://www.cato.org/blog/title-42-failed-it-should-not-be-extended">repeatedly attempt to cross the border</a> and, therefore, <a href="https://www.wola.org/analysis/end-title-42/">historically high numbers of migrant encounters</a> at the border. In that sense, it failed to deter people from coming, even if it allowed Biden to temporarily keep them out.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mzRkC9">
|
|||
|
|
“It will not ultimately stem the tide of peoples seeking refuge safety here, because what we know from experience is that when people are desperate, they will come, regardless of US policy. We know that from experience and from the uniform view of experts,” Gelernt said.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="k3HOAP">
|
|||
|
|
Biden is considering expanding immigration enforcement well beyond the border
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6xUUJj">
|
|||
|
|
The proposals under consideration don’t just concern the border. They would significantly ramp up immigration enforcement inside the US — something that Trump had <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/21366213/trump-immigration-policy-second-term">planned to do in a second term</a> — by expanding expedited removal and mandating immigration detention.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LAuEVC">
|
|||
|
|
Under the current rules, the government can deport migrants under expedited removal in a matter of days without seeing a judge or an attorney if they were arrested within 100 miles of any land border within two weeks of their arrival. Trump issued a 2019 rule expanding who could be subjected to expedited removal, allowing immigrants found anywhere in the US to be removed if they arrived within the prior two years.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="dkNpKe">
|
|||
|
|
Trump’s rule was rescinded by the Biden administration in March 2022, with the Department of Homeland Security <a href="https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2022-05961.pdf?utm_source=federalregister.gov&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pi+subscription+mailing+list">arguing</a> that expedited removal is “best focused as a border enforcement tool on recent entrants encountered in close proximity to the border … rather than on individuals apprehended throughout the United States without geographical limitation, who may have developed significant ties to the community.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6uFV7f">
|
|||
|
|
Inexplicably, Biden now seems willing to reverse course. It’s not clear, however, whether Biden is considering applying expedited removal to people who have been in the US for longer than two weeks, as Trump did.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="EuH7ps">
|
|||
|
|
“We’re talking about picking up immigrants in the interior of the country. It could be anywhere … detaining and deporting them within 48 hours without a hearing,” Gelernt said. “I think if you ask most people, does America do that? They would say, of course not. That’s completely inconsistent with our values.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MYhGXq">
|
|||
|
|
Additionally, the administration is weighing <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/12/white-house-scrambles-in-last-ditch-effort-to-salvage-border-talks-00131421">mandatory immigration detention</a> for at least some, if not all (details are still emerging), immigrants awaiting their court dates. This would mark a significant departure from the administration’s current policies in which US Customs and Border Protection holds migrants for less than 72 hours, screens them, and releases them unless they are among the small number found to be high risk. Most immigrants never step inside detention facilities operated by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which does not have the bed space to accommodate what would be a massive influx of detainees in the event of any such detention mandate.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="R6MkxR">
|
|||
|
|
Not only does that make the policy proposal impractical, but government watchdogs have <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/08/16/1190767610/ice-detention-immigration-government-inspectors-barbaric-negligent-conditions">documented widespread abuses and inhumane conditions</a> in some immigrant detention facilities, many of which are owned and operated by private contractors.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nHhPvj">
|
|||
|
|
“It’s also inhumane to be detaining asylum seekers who are already traumatized by the danger they fled,” Gelernt said.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="58KauK">
|
|||
|
|
Biden is considering making it harder to get asylum
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gLP1ZE">
|
|||
|
|
Some Democratic negotiators have reportedly said they are open to raising the legal standard for what constitutes “credible fear of persecution” — what migrants have to demonstrate in their initial screenings to continue in the process of applying for asylum.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oT4NoZ">
|
|||
|
|
If a migrant arrives in the US without authorization and expresses fear of persecution in their home country, a US Customs and Border Protection agent will first determine whether to refer them to an asylum officer in US Citizenship and Immigration Services for a screening known as a <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/readingroom/RFA/credible-fear-cases-interview#:~:text=An%20individual%20will%20be%20found,account%20of%20his%20or%20her">credible fear</a> interview. In this interview, migrants have to prove that they face credible fear of persecution in their home country or a “well-founded fear of persecution or harm on account of his or her race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion if returned to his or her country.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LQCTG3">
|
|||
|
|
The <a href="https://www.vox.com/trump-administration">Trump administration</a> had <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/6/12/21288063/trump-immigration-asylum-border-regulation">proposed changes</a> to the credible fear interview process that would make it much more difficult for asylum seekers to pass the credible fear screening. It’s not clear whether the changes Biden is weighing would be similar, and it’s not clear who among the White House and Senate negotiators has endorsed it.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MsFRPw">
|
|||
|
|
The problem with raising the standard is that the process already places an incredible onus on migrants, who are in a difficult situation and may not have legal counsel, to be able to immediately and clearly state their case. Migrants are <a href="https://immigrantjustice.org/sites/immigrantjustice.org/files/English%20-%20LGBT%20Know%20Your%20Rights%20FINAL%202009%2008%2028%20No%20Track%20Changes.pdf">asked</a> about any past experiences involving persecution, torture, or harm; why they might fear any such harms going forward in their home countries; who they fear might commit those harms against them; and any other experiences that may put them at risk. Raising the standard to pass a credible fear interview would mean that the US would concede to expelling people with credible asylum claims.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="EWKaB1">
|
|||
|
|
“When people come here, they’re tired, they’re scared, they’re vulnerable. There are language difficulties. They also have no sense of immigration law or what is being asked of them,” Gelernt said. “It’s hard enough as it is.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Z7UCff">
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9DtMsd">
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Arya Singh records his maiden win in MRF Formula 2000 category</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>AUS vs PAK, 1st Test | Australia builds big lead over Pakistan as Lyon moves to 499 Test wickets</strong> - The hosts reached stumps on day three in Perth at 84-2, building their lead to 300 after bowling out the visitors on the cusp of tea for 271 in reply to their first innings 487.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ind Women vs Eng women Test | Amol Muzumdar filled in for my lack of Test captaincy experience: Harmanpreet</strong> - India took precisely seven sessions to create the world record in terms of the largest Test win by runs, while also registering their first-ever victory over England</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>India thrash England by 347 runs in one-off women’s Test</strong> - Deepti Sharma, who picked up five wickets in the first innings, was the tormentor again returning with figures of 4/32 in England’s second essay.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Shami ruled out of Tests series against South Africa, Deepak Chahar withdraws from ODI series</strong> - Shami was earlier included in the Test squad subject to his fitness but he was not cleared by the board’s medical team for the series.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>State-owned beverages corporation to oversee regulated sale of alcohol in Manipur</strong> - A Cabinet decision on Friday marks the end of 30 years of prohibition in the State; strict guidelines to regulate alcohol consumption responsibly</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Women stripped and paraded naked case | Three more arrested, taking total arrests to 11</strong> - Following the ghastly incident of a middle aged woman being stripped, paraded naked and assaulted at Vantamuri in Belagavi district, a team from National Commission for Women on December 16 visited the district hospital in Belgavi where the victim is undergoing treatment.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Congress announces crowdfunding campaign ahead of Lok Sabha polls</strong> - Donate for Desh is inspired by Mahatma Gandhi’s Tilak Swaraj Fund, Congress leaders said; as the party celebrates its 138th foundation day, it is welcomeing donations in multiples of ₹138</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Parliament security breach | Sixth accused arrested; sent to 7-day police custody</strong> - The Delhi police said that Mahesh Kumawat and others have met at several places including Mysuru, Gurgaon and Delhi.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>RIMS Adilabad medicos call off strike after assurances from director</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Hungary’s Viktor Orban: Is one man blackmailing the EU?</strong> - The nationalist Hungarian PM was the only leader blocking EU support for Ukraine at a Brussels summit.</p></li>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Hungary blocks €50bn of EU funding for Ukraine</strong> - Hungary blocks new funding just hours after a deal is struck on starting talks to admit Ukraine to the EU.</p></li>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>British teen Alex Batty left mother to avoid Finland move - French officials</strong> - Alex Batty was constantly on the move since going missing in 2017, French officials say.</p></li>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine grenade incident: Councillor tosses explosives into meeting</strong> - Twenty-six people were wounded when the man launched an attack during a budget debate.</p></li>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Russian gas giant Gazprom makes £39m profit in North Sea</strong> - The state-owned Russian energy firm earned £39m from its Dutch-UK gas field in 2022, accounts show.</p></li>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Here’s how an off-road racing series will make its own hydrogen fuel</strong> - Extreme E, the electric off-road series, is switching to hydrogen in 2025. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1991074">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>This “smoking gun” killed the McDonald’s ice cream hackers’ startup</strong> - Three-year-old email shows evidence of plot to undermine repair business. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1991363">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A top-secret Chinese spy satellite just launched on a supersized rocket</strong> - This satellite may carry a large telescope to continuously monitor the Indo-Pacific. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1991612">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Marketer sparks panic with claims it uses smart devices to eavesdrop on people</strong> - “Real-time” listening claims were exaggerated, but the creepy factor remains. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1991469">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Pixel 9 might come with exclusive “Pixie” AI assistant</strong> - What will happen to the Google Assistant when the new AI assistant comes out? - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1991507">link</a></p></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
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