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590 lines
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<meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, user-scalable=yes" name="viewport"/>
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<title>06 February, 2022</title>
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<title>Daily-Dose</title><meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" name="viewport"/><link href="styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><link href="../styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><style>*{overflow-x:hidden;}</style><link href="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.css" rel="stylesheet"/><script src="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.js"></script></head>
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<body>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>ISIS After the American Strike</strong> - For an indication of the terrorist group’s future, look to its recent past. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/isis-after-the-american-strike">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>How a City Close to the Ukraine-Russia Border Has Been Shaped by War</strong> - In Kharkiv, a Ukrainian national identity has been fortified by Russian incursions and threats. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-a-city-close-to-the-ukraine-russia-border-has-been-shaped-by-war">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Pro-Trump Case for Rejecting the Big Lie</strong> - Weston Wamp, a young conservative from Tennessee, is on a mission to convince others on the right that Joe Biden won the 2020 election. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pro-trump-case-for-rejecting-the-big-lie">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Sunday Reading: The Ukraine Crisis</strong> - From the magazine’s archive: a selection of pieces on Ukraine and the changing nature of its relationship with Russia. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/books/double-take/sunday-reading-the-ukraine-crisis">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Afterlife of a Las Vegas Spectacular</strong> - Nearly two years after “Le Rêve” went dark, cast members are still grappling with what it means to be a performer without a show. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/us-journal/the-afterlife-of-a-las-vegas-spectacular">link</a></p></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>“It’s not about Russia. It’s about Putin”: An expert explains Putin’s endgame in Ukraine</strong> -
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<figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/AYtF7frJtbB5Y0YrSCU-
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FKcxAXI=/608x0:5472x3648/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70476666/GettyImages_1238161092.0.jpg"/></p>
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<figcaption>
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Russian Southern Military District servicemen are seen on T-72B3 tanks as they take part in a cross-country driving exercise in the Rostov region of Russia, near Ukraine, on February 3. | Erik Romanenko/TASS via Getty Images
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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According to Mark Galeotti, Putin wants to cement his place in history by restoring Russian control over its neighbor.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="VWuWPk">
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Since December, the biggest question facing foreign policymakers in the US and Europe has been as simple as it has been hard to really believe: Is <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/12/8/22824015/russia-ukraine-troops-tensions-putin-biden-nato">Russia going to invade Ukraine</a>?
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9NBDs4">
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Russian President Vladimir Putin has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/01/27/world/europe/russia-forces.html">ordered massive numbers of troops, tanks, artillery, and more</a> to the border with Ukraine, as well as in Crimea (a region that Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014) and in Belarus (a close ally of Russia and northern neighbor of Ukraine). He has also <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-nato">issued demands</a> that Ukraine not be admitted into NATO, and that NATO not deploy forces to member states close to Russia like Poland and the Baltic states. These are bold demands that <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-us-risch-
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troop-buildup/31616014.html">some view</a> as designed for Ukraine and the West to reject, allowing Putin to claim that diplomacy has failed and an invasion is necessary.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Zq4Y2u">
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For the moment, though, <a href="https://www.vox.com/22894163/russia-ukraine-putin-biden-nato">diplomatic efforts between the US, EU members, Ukraine, and Russia continue</a>, and some experts are more optimistic that the situation can resolve without what could be Europe’s first major land war in decades. One of them is Mark Galeotti, director of Mayak Intelligence, a professor at University College London, and an expert on Russian security affairs. We spoke on Zoom recently for an episode of Vox’s podcast <em>The Weeds</em>. A transcript, heavily truncated and edited for length and clarity, follows.
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</p>
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<div id="gJB48N">
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</div>
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</div>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="CkjI9r">
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</p>
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<h4 id="LKarBL">
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Dylan Matthews
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mIho8W">
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Let’s start with the actual situation on the ground right now. What has Russia been doing in recent months militarily? Is what it’s doing now different from things that it’s done in the past?
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</p>
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<h4 id="ycrE5I">
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Mark Galeotti
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="KfjHAV">
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It is different. What we’ve seen is a pretty huge buildup of materiel around Ukraine’s borders.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="38PrHF">
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First of all, it’s a lot more than we’ve seen in the past. There was another big buildup last spring. This time, though, it’s much more substantial.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lKde64">
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There are people talking about 120,000, 130,000 troops. That’s not entirely accurate. There are a lot of troops there, but also the kit for these troops. It’s the tanks, it’s the armored fighting vehicles, and so forth. So you might say it’s the <em>skeleton</em> of a force of 130,000.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nfUh8u">
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Also what we’ve seen that is different from past such buildups is what you might call “the backup.” Soldiers talk about “the teeth and the tail.” Last [spring] it was essentially all teeth, no tail. So yes, it was all very scary, there were tanks and guns there.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="cCp2HU">
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But there weren’t the field hospitals. There weren’t the <a href="https://www.trailerengineering.co.uk/about/what-is-a-
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bowser/">fuel bowsers</a>, the big stocks of ammunition, all the stuff that you actually need to have a real offensive. This time they have all that, which means either they are absolutely planning for a definite military operation, or they <em>might </em>plan military operation, and they’re giving themselves the option. Or they realized that when they tried to bluff the last time, people pointed to the lack of all this backup and said, “Ah ha, that’s why it’s a bluff,” and they are just making damn sure that this time it’s going to be a really good bluff.
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</p>
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<h4 id="mcDMar">
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Dylan Matthews
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="VoKo1V">
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Why is Putin doing this? What is in it for Russia in a military invasion of Ukraine — or, alternately, a feint of a military invasion of Ukraine that is sufficiently serious that people have to respond to it?
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</p>
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<h4 id="bGfeS3">
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Mark Galeotti
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jzfdOC">
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The thing is, we’re not talking about Russia. If you look at the opinion polls, Russians themselves have no enthusiasm for any kind of a war.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Yl3O25">
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Crimea was a particular chunk of territory that pretty much every Russian, whether they love or hate Putin, thought was rightfully Russian. It was Russian until the 1950s when it was transferred to Ukrainian control. But that was a one-off. Everyone thought that [annexing Crimea] was right and proper. Frankly, most Crimeans actually genuinely wanted to become part of Russia.
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</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
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<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
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cdn.com/thumbor/azlHYCSi1KqVQfbFwm_rnNMU6mU=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
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cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23219104/GettyImages_931885040.jpg"/> <cite>Yuri Kadobnov/AFP via Getty Images</cite>
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<figcaption>
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Supporters of Russian President Vladimir Putin gather for a rally to celebrate the fourth anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea at Nakhimov Square in Sevastopol, Crimea, on March 14, 2018.
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6dXcr8">
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This is totally different. Donbas [the eastern region of Ukraine where <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas">Russia is backing separatist militias</a>] isn’t special for them. Instead, they do see the Ukrainians as their … I don’t know … cousins, part of the family. And the idea of seeing Ukrainian cities burn is really not something that people are enthusiastic about.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="EjwNnR">
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So it’s not about Russia. It’s about Putin. And it’s about this small circle of people around him who dominate this country. If you look at them, they are essentially the last gasp of Soviet elites, the people who didn’t just have their early childhood education in the Soviet times, but also their early career experiences. They were made. They thought they knew the way their life was going to be. And then all of a sudden the whole thing collapsed.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4oXqcs">
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And the end of empire is hard. I mean, one can question whether Britain’s really fully internalized the end of empire after, what, 50 odd years. France likewise, and probably soon enough, America is going to have to go through this and in a different way. We shouldn’t be surprised that it’s difficult, but the trouble is for this particular generation, these increasingly paranoid old men, it’s metastasized from “what have we lost?” to “who took it from us?”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="EqZyvi">
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These are people who genuinely believe the West is hostile, who genuinely believe that the West is denying Russia its proper place in the world, that it’s trying to hold Russia down and trying to undermine the regime. When we support, for example, anti-corruption activists like the <a href="https://www.vox.com/22254292/alexei-navalny-prison-hunger-strike-end-russia-
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protests-vladimir-putin">opposition leader Alexei Navalny</a>, who Putin had poisoned and then put in prison, they don’t see that as us standing up for what we think of as natural human rights. They see that as a sign that the West is trying to use [the situation] to undermine the regime.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="it6YM1">
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And let’s be honest, when you are a corrupt kleptocratic authoritarian, then support for anti-corruption activists, support for a free press — all of that does subvert the regime. So they see themselves as defending Russia.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FG22Au">
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When it comes to Ukraine, look, Putin is a product of his era. He doesn’t really think that Ukraine is a different country. Of course it can’t go. But he’s still got this old Cold War mentality that if it’s lost to [Russia], it’s gained by the others. He’s worried about the thought of NATO’s forces being based in Ukraine, of NATO’s missiles. He talks about missiles near the [Ukrainian] city of Kharkiv that <a href="https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-moscow-
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cd558699728e9ae935eaadf940efeb18">could hit Moscow in five minutes</a>.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LNFVc6">
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In reality, these are very, very implausible scenarios. But the point is, this is a view of a bunch of old men who can’t quite get over the fact that they’re no longer running a superpower, and who also are increasingly surrounded by people who tell them what they want to hear. One of the scary things about the Putin system is that Putin himself is a rational actor. He’s a rational human being — not a nice one, but a rational one. But the trouble is, if what he’s being told is misleading and inaccurate, he can make some really stupid and dangerous decisions, even while being rational about it.
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</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
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<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
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cdn.com/thumbor/IQFeQJ9OpQH5ClhgXjEmVPM8lxQ=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
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cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23219199/GettyImages_1238078921.jpg"/> <cite>Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images</cite>
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<figcaption>
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As fears grow of a potential invasion by Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s border, a military instructor teaches civilians holding wooden replicas of Kalashnikov rifles during a training session at an abandoned factory in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on January 30.
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XR8eXx">
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A final point is we know that Putin is obsessed with his historical legacy. History is one of the few things he reads. When he meets historians, he asks them, “How are they going to be writing about me in 100 years time?” Which, first of all, what a deeply uncomfortable question to be asked by the despots of your country, a man who has people poisoned or put in prison! But secondly, it gives us a sense of where his head is at.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5H9tSQ">
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I think from his point of view, you know, he’s 69. He can rule for only some years to come politically, but he’s probably getting old and he’s getting tired. It’s fairly obvious that he is tired and bored with much of the job. The last thing he wants is for his legacy in the history books to be the guy who lost Ukraine, the guy who rolled over and let NATO and the West have their way.
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</p></li>
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</ul>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3mzKfm">
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So I think this is also about him feeling this is … I wouldn’t say his last chance, but one of his last chances to stand up for Russia and make sure that Russia asserts its real place in the world, forces the West to acknowledge that and in the process, that’s what gets him into the history books, [so] he’s a chapter rather than just a paragraph.
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</p>
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<h4 id="7C4IK0">
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Dylan Matthews
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OAc2DI">
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Where things are today, how likely do you think an actual Russian incursion into Ukrainian territory is?
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</p>
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<h4 id="qn4Hvq">
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Mark Galeotti
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uC1SuI">
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I’m still optimistic. The military wonks are very pessimistic. They think it’s almost certain that there will be an invasion. The political wonks tend to be much more optimistic. I reckon it’s about 30 percent. It’s absolutely a possibility, but I don’t think [a military escalation is] Putin’s Plan A. It’s his Plan B or his Plan C, if he can’t get what he wants or enough of what he wants by political means, means which include the intimidating presence of a large number of Russian troops and heavy metal on Ukraine’s border.
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</p>
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<h4 id="Tly1xg">
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Dylan Matthews
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="y3lxJK">
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If Russia is partially doing this to try to extract concessions, what are the kind of concessions they want? Is there a deal that could be made with with Ukraine and with the United States that would satisfy them and avert conflict here?
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</p>
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<h4 id="FrzLmp">
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Mark Galeotti
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gkz8MJ">
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The only honest answer I could possibly give is, I don’t know.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="cmYU4g">
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We’re still trying to divine Putin’s real goals and above all, his appetite for risk. He’s trying to give the impression that he has this very maximalist list of demands. What he wants is Ukraine to be forced into a state of neutrality, which means that it will always be vulnerable to Russia, and guarantees that it’ll never join NATO, even though back in 2009, NATO had promised that Ukraine and Georgia would become members.
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</p>
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Also, he wants NATO basically rolled back to where it was in 1997. Countries which have already become members of NATO [such as Poland, Hungary, and Czechia] would either be kicked out or more likely would become second-class NATO members or something.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bt1Xl0">
|
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|
|
My view is that he must know that he’s not going to get that. To some people, that proves that war will definitely happen. But we can reassure Russia without giving away things that we shouldn’t be giving away. We can’t, for example, actually say Ukraine will no longer be allowed to join NATO, even though, if we’re honest, Ukraine is not going to join NATO for at least another decade.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="t2pbej">
|
|||
|
|
But maybe what we can do is say, “Well, look, it’s going to take time anyway, but we will guarantee that we will not put NATO troops or security architecture on Ukrainian soil. Ukraine might come under the NATO’s umbrella of defense, but in peacetime, at least you’re not going to have to worry about that.”
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aCN1Jb">
|
|||
|
|
There’s ways of trying to package things that are actually relatively reasonable. We’re going to have to package them up nicely in really big flowery wrapping paper with a nice silver bow because Putin is going to have to both feel that he’s made some kind of advances and also has to be able to tell his own people that he has triumphed.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/WxxjIXmaoZblI7ItC0TkiSxiVkc=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
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|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23219203/GettyImages_1238095377.jpg"/> <cite>Mikhail Metzel/TASS via Getty Images</cite>
|
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|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Putin meeting in the Kremlin in Moscow on January 31.
|
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|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="yK0Q0J">
|
|||
|
|
Dylan Matthews
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
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|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="KLKq8G">
|
|||
|
|
A deal does seem preferable to war, but I think there’s a fear that we can’t trust Putin. If we offer him a concession, next time he will do a similar ramp up, or attack Georgia again, or otherwise lash out to try to extract additional concessions. Is there a way to avoid it becoming a blackmail cycle, as opposed to a lasting settlement?
|
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|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="2VOk57">
|
|||
|
|
Mark Galeotti
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="13syry">
|
|||
|
|
It’s a fair point, and I think in some ways the answer is that there is a there is a strange and perverse legalism to Putin. This is a man who absolutely is willing to lie, cheat, blackmail and murder — not personally, but he’ll have people do it.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QRYPyz">
|
|||
|
|
On the other hand, this is a man who does feel the need to observe the forms. He may rig elections, but he will hold elections. He won’t just simply declare that he will change the constitution to allow him to to stay in power. There will have to be a constitutional process and debates and a referendum and so forth.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2RaXXx">
|
|||
|
|
It’s interesting that his demand, at the moment, is precisely that he wants pieces of paper. He wants formal written guarantees precisely because he doesn’t trust the West. Well, this gives us the opportunity also to look for full guarantees from Putin.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="tijkUV">
|
|||
|
|
The honest answer is that actually our leverage on Putin is quite limited. Putin has spent the last seven and a half years turning Russia into as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/world/europe/putin-sanctions-proofing.html">sanction-proof an economy</a> as he can manage. And they’ve done a pretty good job of it. They have massive financial reserves in the West. They made a decision to favor security over economic growth. The Russian economy is pretty stagnant. But on the other hand, it’s also really hard to knock over.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="NGsjAJ">
|
|||
|
|
The real thing that we could do that would absolutely devastate the Russian economy is not buy any Russian [natural] gas or oil, which is fine, except that it would mean massive increases in prices and massive shortages, particularly of <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/3/russia-ukraine-
|
|||
|
|
crisis-how-europe-may-cope-if-putin-shuts-off-gas">gas in Europe</a>. It’s winter now. How many people are willing to say I’m perfectly happy for granny to freeze to death so long as I show that nasty Mr. Putin what I think of his policies towards Ukraine?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OM1BhG">
|
|||
|
|
I think there is a point where we have to be realistic. We can do harm to Putin. Absolutely. And if he escalates, we can and we should. But on the other hand, if he is absolutely willing to take that hit, there’s nothing we can do. The reason why he probably won’t escalate in Ukraine is not so much because of Western sanctions. It’s because the Ukrainians will fight, the Ukrainian military is <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-bulked-up-military-is-still-outgunned-by-russia-11643286624">stronger than it has ever been</a>. The Russians will win, but if they’re going to try and occupy territory and particularly go into cities, you know, they’re going to face a nation up in arms against them.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gDTZUX">
|
|||
|
|
The Russians would absolutely hate [this parallel], but the only real parallel I can draw is what happened in Ukraine during World War II. The Germans invaded and they faced this massive mobilized Partizan resistance. Well, okay, this is going to be a slightly different war. But nonetheless, that’s the kind of challenge.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>How to understand the recent coups in Africa</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt="Demonstrators in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso, hold a photo of coup leader
|
|||
|
|
Liutenent Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba on January 25, 2022." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7sb0ZfU-
|
|||
|
|
apTEtWNdUYnziP9pO6g=/0x0:3556x2667/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70475627/1237975407.0.jpg"/></p>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Demonstrators gather in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso, on January 25, 2022, days after a military coup. | Olympia de Maismont/AFP via Getty Images
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Calling African coups contagious is the wrong way to think about it.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="p2zhHl">
|
|||
|
|
Over the past eighteen months, there have been seven coups and coup attempts in African nations. In Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali, and Sudan, military leaders succeeded in seizing power; in Niger and, most recently, in Guinea-Bissau, they failed.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="h1JgVW">
|
|||
|
|
On Thursday, following the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/europe-africa-portugal-west-africa-guinea-
|
|||
|
|
bissau-15480dcb7a9cd6b407ce7651135c2d46">failed coup</a> in Guinea-Bissau earlier this week, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) convened to discuss the unrest, which ECOWAS chair Nana Akufo-Addo <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20220203-west-african-leaders-hold-summit-after-wave-of-coups-bring-turmoil-to-
|
|||
|
|
region">described</a> as “contagious” and a threat to the entire region.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jNd1Fv">
|
|||
|
|
That’s not wrong, according to Joseph Siegle, research director at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="xLSzPm">
|
|||
|
|
“I think yes, the broader point is there has been a pattern after a period of relatively fewer coups,” Siegle told Vox in a phone call. “It’s reasonable to assume that there’s some copycatting going on, or the norm of militaries not being involved [in government] or seizing power has been broken.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0peF9B">
|
|||
|
|
But while the recent spate of coups have several common characteristics and show what Siegle calls a “dispersion effect,” Joseph Sany, the vice president of the US Institute of Peace’s Africa Center, told Vox in a phone interview that he thinks referring to them as “contagious” is unhelpful.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vgdLoe">
|
|||
|
|
“I hate the term ‘contagion’ because it’s a blanket term,” Sany said. “You can’t put Guinea in the same group as Mali and Burkina Faso.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GiwOmg">
|
|||
|
|
According to Sany, despite some commonalities — governments unable to provide basic services for their people, corruption, and weak state institutions — the circumstances and mechanics of the recent coups and attempts are different.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5mt8tR">
|
|||
|
|
And not only does labeling recent coups as part of a “contagion” or domino effect erase these differences, he said, it also absolves the world community from helping these countries build sustainable democratic institutions going forward.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="43iCMN">
|
|||
|
|
Calling the coups “contagious” flattens the complexity of the situation
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="D2BFLF">
|
|||
|
|
Africa’s current wave of coups began in August 2020, after former Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta was <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/8/19/21375138/mali-coup-president-keita-military-election">arrested at gunpoint</a> by government forces. The subsequent series of African coups share some commonalities, such as political and economic instability and weak democratic institutions, but Sany says the specific circumstances in each case are crucial to understanding what happened — and potentially, what comes next.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zeK5sh">
|
|||
|
|
In Mali and Burkina Faso, Sany notes, the governments were dealing with <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/08/five-things-know-about-malis-
|
|||
|
|
coup">violent extremism </a>from <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/27/burkina-faso-military-coup-prompts-
|
|||
|
|
fears-of-further-instability">ISIS</a> and al-Qaeda affiliates in the Sahel, where between 2020 and 2021, <a href="https://theintercept.com/2022/02/04/isis-leader-killed-africa-biden/">the Intercept’s Nick Turse</a> reports, citing statistics in <a href="https://africacenter.org/spotlight/mig2022-01-surge-militant-islamist-violence-sahel-
|
|||
|
|
dominates-africa-fight-extremists/">a recent report</a> by Siegle and his team, attacks by militant Islamist organizations increased 70 percent, from 1,180 to 2,005.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3BD48d">
|
|||
|
|
According to Siegle, that security threat has formed the pretext for coups in both countries. “In terms of the differences, Mali and Burkina Faso, the juntas have claimed that insecurity and an inability to deal with threats from violent extremist groups has precipitated the coups,” Siegle said. “They’re both using the same justification, and in the case of Burkina Faso, the threat is more imminent.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rrRbwT">
|
|||
|
|
But while it’s a serious concern and terror affiliates drive instability in many African nations, not every country that has undergone a recent coup is dealing with violent insurgency from terror groups.
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YWexNb">
|
|||
|
|
In Guinea-Bissau, for example, the recent attempted coup is one of many since the nation gained its independence from Portugal in 1974, the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/coup-fears-spike-in-guinea-bissau-as-
|
|||
|
|
gunfire-heard-in-capital-11643744427?mod=e2tw">Wall Street Journal’s Nicholas Bariyo writes</a>. The nation has struggled to establish democratic traditions and institutions; notably, President Umaro Sissoco Embaló — the man whom this week’s failed coup tried to oust — came to power in 2020, after a contested election which was still being reviewed by the nation’s Supreme Court when Embaló took office.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="SAtT73">
|
|||
|
|
And in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/05/world/africa/guinea-coup.html">Guinea</a> — a separate country that borders the smaller Guinea-Bissau — last year’s successful coup came after President Alpha Condé changed the constitution and mounted a power grab that gave him a third term in office. Although he initially won a democratic election in 2010 — the first Guinean leader to do so — his power grab, combined with corruption and deep inequality, apparently provided the impetus the military needed to mount a takeover last September.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="e5ioyM">
|
|||
|
|
The mechanics of these takeovers are different as well; for example, Chad’s military led a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/chads-covert-coup-and-the-
|
|||
|
|
implications-for-democratic-governance-in-africa-159725">covert coup</a>” last year, installing the son of the deceased President Idriss Deby, himself a military commander, as the leader in violation of the constitution. The younger Deby’s government is supposed to be “transitional” — his father was Chad’s authoritarian leader for three decades — but since it abolished the constitution and dissolved the previous government and Parliament, it’s not clear where such a transition could lead.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wrKZQ6">
|
|||
|
|
Sudan’s coup, too, came after decades of authoritarian rule; after civil society leadership organized mass protests and <a href="https://www.vox.com/world/2019/4/11/18306002/sudan-news-bashir-
|
|||
|
|
coup-protests-khartoum-auf">ousted former dictator Omar al-Bashir</a> in 2019, a transitional government comprising military and civilian leadership took over. That <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/8/19/20812054/sudan-power-sharing-
|
|||
|
|
deal-al-bashir-trial">power-sharing agreement</a> briefly set Sudan on a democratic trajectory before the military took over last year, eventually leading to civilian Prime Minister <a href="https://www.vox.com/22870160/sudan-protests-
|
|||
|
|
hamdok-resigned-coup-military">Abdalla Hamdok’s resignation</a> this past January.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Ix1BhZ">
|
|||
|
|
Characterizing the coups as contagious also discounts the influence of outside powers, Sany and Siegle told Vox — primarily Russia and China, and to a lesser extent, <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sudan/2022-02-04/americas-failure-
|
|||
|
|
imagination-sudan">Turkey and Gulf states like Qatar</a>. Broadly speaking, these nations don’t necessarily foment coups, but they do take advantage of instability to support regimes that allow them to exercise influence, legitimize their own antidemocratic systems, and extract resources from nations rich in diamonds, bauxite, and other valuable materials.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="I4aYvg">
|
|||
|
|
“It fits the mold of situations where you have an unelected, unaccountable military leader who doesn’t have a lot of political support, so make him indebted to the Russians,” Siegle said of the recent coup in Guinea. “They’ll get access to their iron ore, and [a military leader will] give them political cover. So I see them as very vulnerable to that kind of influence.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qzUUYJ">
|
|||
|
|
“If you want to know where Russia will go next, look for instability,” Sany said, pointing to the situations in Mali and Burkina Faso in particular. According to Siegle, the junta in Mali in particular, facing a security crisis due to Islamist extremism, is heavily reliant on mercenaries from the Russian Wagner Group — a costly arrangement which could further erode the junta’s ability to provide basic services for people, creating fertile ground for further instability. Economic and social impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as anti-French, anti-colonial sentiment, Sany said, made for “an explosive cocktail.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YF9EpN">
|
|||
|
|
“These military leaders were very savvy to take control,” he said.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2uZe4C">
|
|||
|
|
That points to another commonality in the recent takeovers, Siegle told Vox. “The coup leaders themselves aren’t necessarily saying what they’re going to do differently, and I think that the similarity that we’re seeing across all the coups is these military actors, which all happen to be mid-level, colonel-level military leaders, they all seem more intent on seizing power and holding power for power’s sake,” he said. “They’re not offering some sort of reformist agenda, a security plan, somehow a return to democracy or improving government, or reducing corruption — anything along those lines.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="X3jTDp">
|
|||
|
|
The long- term outcome of coups could depend on outside intervention
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gyjwqT">
|
|||
|
|
Despite their initial success, Sany and Siegle both told Vox, many of these coup leaders will fail in the long term because they’re not equipped to govern, and because they’re working in countries that don’t have the institutions to deliver on any promises they might make. Given that possibility, the road ahead for these nations is unclear at best.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wU4aF2">
|
|||
|
|
In <em>Seizing Power: The Strategic Logic of Military Coups</em>, Naunihal Singh, a professor at the US Naval War College, points out that citizen and civil society groups can rarely influence military coups as they are happening, and the undoing of a government takeover or the transition to democracy depends either upon fractiousness within the military or the intervention of outside forces, and often a combination of the two.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="z6GCHu">
|
|||
|
|
And there’s good reason for the world to take notice: According to Singh, the “frequency and ubiquity” of coups means they pose a real problem for other democracies.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3v0z8v">
|
|||
|
|
“Indeed,” Singh writes, “coups are responsible for roughly 75% of democratic failures, making them the single largest danger to democracy.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0O8BId">
|
|||
|
|
That presents outside powers with a choice: work with civil society leaders and military governments to help these nations develop and strengthen institutions and a timeline for democratic transition, or exploit the chaos to gain a foothold for resource extraction and further exploitation, as Russia has done in several recent cases.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jLa1bw">
|
|||
|
|
However, sanctioning these nations and isolating them, as the European Union and the US have done to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/eu-imposes-
|
|||
|
|
sanctions-malis-pm-coup-leaders-2022-02-04/">Malian coup leaders</a>, does nothing but harm the citizens of those countries and only pushes coup leadership away from democratic foundations, Sany said. “We are asking these nations to be like Denmark, when they don’t have the resources,” he told Vox.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ObB7Yr">
|
|||
|
|
According to Sany, Western countries and institutions — which have their own vested interests in the region; their own brutal, exploitative, and extractive history of colonialism in Africa; and their own strangleholds on poor nations <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/business/economy/imf-surcharges.html">in the form of debt</a> — impress upon unstable nations with undemocratic leadership the importance of the rule of law and punish them when they don’t live up to those ideals, but don’t speak to the actual needs of the people living in those nations.
|
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vFhNuR">
|
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|
Nor, he said, do they present particularly viable pathways for a transition to democracy: “By putting on blanket sanctions, you alienate and punish citizens” without addressing the root cause of the instability, Sany told Vox, precipitating further instability and potentially even further coups.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GiBh6v">
|
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|
Instead, according to Sany, Western powers need to work better with these countries to look honestly at the root causes of conflict, poverty, and instability; help them build up and invest in stronger institutions; and work with civil society and military leaders to lay out a path to democratic transition. Furthermore, working with regional groups like ECOWAS and neighboring African countries to encourage cooperation and reduce isolation can be an effective way to reduce the risk of undemocratic takeovers, since peer nations can be highly influential, he said.
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wAg1JR">
|
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Without support for democratic systems, civil society, and institutions for justice and transparency, Sany warns, history will repeat itself.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lKHFuE">
|
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“Coup breeds coup,” he said. “There will be protracted instability unless the world community gets involved.”
|
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</p>
|
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|
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<ul>
|
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|
|
<li><strong>Will climate change melt the Winter Olympics?</strong> -
|
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|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="Competitors training on the slopestyle course at Genting Snow Park in preparation for
|
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|
|
competition at the Winter Olympic Games on February 4th, 2022 in Zhangjiakou, China." src="https://cdn.vox-
|
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|
cdn.com/thumbor/l-fPTTaN3yL5bLMWesR2oPWpJao=/304x0:5168x3648/1310x983/cdn.vox-
|
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|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70474716/GettyImages_1368580907.0.jpeg"/>
|
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|
|
<figcaption>
|
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|
|
The 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing mark the first time the Games are using entirely artificial snow. | Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images
|
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|
|
</figcaption>
|
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|
|
</figure>
|
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|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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|
|
It will be hard to host the Winter Games when winter isn’t cold.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wAHAt3">
|
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|
|
For decades, Jeremy Jones has explored unique and pristine winter slopes around the world on his snowboard. He’s found new routes accessible only via helicopter and snowmobile, making a name for himself as a big mountain snowboarder, filmmaker, and entrepreneur. In the process, he developed a sense for subtle variations in wind, snow, ice, and water.
|
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|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GqEABT">
|
|||
|
|
“The type of snowboarding I do requires me to have an incredibly intimate relationship with winter,” said Jones, who is 47. “I snowboard in the backcountry where the difference between a slope being stable and avalanching has lots of nuanced signs.”
|
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|
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</p>
|
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|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="650IIi">
|
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|
|
But the ground beneath his feet started to shift, and so did his thinking. Resorts that used to have reliable snow started closing more frequently. Some mountains started getting more rain than snow as glaciers retreated up their slopes. For Jones and many fellow winter enthusiasts, climate change became impossible to ignore. “I was like, man, this problem is not going away without us doing something about it,” Jones said.
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|
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</p>
|
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|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WPcHJz">
|
|||
|
|
It’s not just snowboarding — climate change is already having an impact on several winter activities, including many of the outdoor sports on display at the 2022 Beijing Olympics. On average, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/02/18/803125282/how-warming-winters-are-affecting-everything">winters are warming faster than summers</a> and <a href="https://www.nps.gov/subjects/aknatureandscience/hi-latclimatechange.htm">northern latitudes are warming faster</a> than regions closer to the equator. Sports that count on outdoor snow and ice are especially vulnerable. In a warming world, precious few cities may be reliably cold with enough snow and ice to host Winter Olympics of the future.
|
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|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<aside id="0RczBx">
|
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|
|
<div>
|
|||
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|
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|
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</div>
|
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|
|
</aside>
|
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|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="HAtbhV">
|
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|
|
In 2007, Jones founded the advocacy group <a href="https://protectourwinters.org/about-pow/">Protect Our Winters</a> with the aim of uniting winter sports enthusiasts in the fight against climate change. With the world’s eyes on the Winter Games, athletes-turned- advocates are hoping to channel some of that attention toward the ways climate change threatens their sports. And the group’s latest report, “<a href="https://www.lboro.ac.uk/sport/news/2022/january/how-climate-change-is-threatening-
|
|||
|
|
winter-olympics/">Slippery Slopes: How Climate Change is threatening the 2022 Winter Olympics</a>,” warns that without drastic action, many of the sports that thrill fans and athletes are endangered.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yBNxCJ">
|
|||
|
|
Warmer winters aren’t just leading to mushier snow, the authors write. The places where winter sports can be played at all are becoming fewer and farther between. That makes it harder for athletes to train and makes winter sports more expensive and exclusive, throttling the pipeline for new skiers, snowboarders, and skaters. It’s an early warning sign for the future of winter itself.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="vFUebD">
|
|||
|
|
The Winter Olympics may never be the same
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Ljp9Fn">
|
|||
|
|
This is the first year in history that the Winter Games will have to manufacture all of its own snow. Organizers expected as much, given that Beijing has never been known for especially snowy winters. But winter sports have been increasingly reliant on artificial conditions for years. “Things have been trending in this direction for quite some time,” said <a href="https://education.gsu.edu/profile/timothy-kellison/">Timothy Kellison</a>, director of the Center for Sport and Urban policy at Georgia State University.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="81OBpC">
|
|||
|
|
Artificial snow is designed in part to level the playing field and deliver consistent conditions for sports. But it’s also a sign that the ideal conditions for outdoor events like alpine skiing are getting harder to find in nature. Rising temperatures mean that more winter precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, and the snow that does fall can be less substantial.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="awvKCx">
|
|||
|
|
Covering a mountain slope in synthetic powder can harm the environment and add to the already enormous costs of large-scale winter sports (the Beijing Winter Olympics reportedly cost <a href="https://www.insider.com/real-cost-of-beijing-games-10-times-
|
|||
|
|
chinas-reported-figure-2022-1">$3.9 billion</a>, though some estimates show the cost is much higher). Snow-making has massive energy appetite and stresses water sources. And the snow itself is a pale imitation of what falls from the sky. Artificial snow is about 30 percent ice and 70 percent air, whereas natural snow is 10 percent ice and 90 percent air. That changes the texture of the snow, creating a harder snowpack that alters how skis and snowboards slide, so courses require further grooming.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yP6eC8">
|
|||
|
|
In addition, snow machines still require cold temperatures to operate. In the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver, snowmaking equipment couldn’t keep up with the unusually warm weather, so organizers used <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/sochi-among-warmest-winter-olympics-host-
|
|||
|
|
cities">trucks and helicopters to bring in snow</a> from elsewhere.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="L5hR8k">
|
|||
|
|
And there’s only so much snow you can keep on the ground when temperatures get too high, regardless of where it comes from. The snow quickly softens, forms ruts, and creates a spray when athletes cut through it. That can impair visibility and lead to accidents, explained <a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/geography-environmental-management/people-profiles/daniel-scott">Daniel Scott</a>, a professor of geography and environmental management at the University of Waterloo in Canada.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="S7vpvm">
|
|||
|
|
Yet the option of artificial snow has allowed Winter Olympics organizers to select host cities that are far from ideal. The 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia set a record for the <a href="https://slate.com/technology/2014/02/sochi-s-average-temperature-it-was-the-warmest-winter-olympics-
|
|||
|
|
ever.html">highest temperature at a Winter Olympics</a>: 68 degrees Fahrenheit. That was also a problem for the Winter Paralympic Games that came after. “In Sochi, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27307272/">[the injury rate] was six times</a> what it was in Vancouver for the Paralympians,” Scott said. “These are the best in the world, so if they’re struggling with those kinds of conditions and many of them are getting hurt by it, that should tell you something.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="izPSqw">
|
|||
|
|
The impacts of climate change stretch beyond the Games as well. As training sites deal with rising temperatures, athletes need to spend more money and time finding reliable locations. Otherwise, they arrive at the slopes less prepared. “We also see more injuries caused by the lack of practice on snow and the added pressure to perform when there is a window of opportunities,” Philippe Marquis, a two-time Winter Olympian from Canada, wrote in the “Slippery Slopes” report. “Athletes feel the urge to push their limits even if the conditions are suboptimal.”
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7ByvIc">
|
|||
|
|
Many candidate cities for the Winter Olympics — including past hosts — won’t be consistently cold or snowy enough to hold the games in the future. This means the pool of host cities will shrink drastically, or hosts will have to spend far more time, money, and energy to prepare for future Winter Olympics. For example, Chamonix and Innsbruck in the Alps — a mountain range that lends its name to the Olympic event of Alpine skiing — may have to be ruled out for good if greenhouse gas emissions continue spewing unchecked.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="Chart comparing" src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/B7CMKp9bZXYNl3ogUkZcx1Qbka8=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23218058/Screen_Shot_2022_02_04_at_11.17.48_AM.png"/> <cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://www.sportecology.org/research" target="_blank">Slippery Slopes: How climate change is threatening the Winter Olympics</a></cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Potential Winter Olympics host cities may have less reliable conditions for the Games depending on different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="4Kl8bg">
|
|||
|
|
Climate change could become a crisis for winter sports
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qzvFR2">
|
|||
|
|
Beyond the Olympics, winter recreation areas like <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/ski-resorts-and-climate-change/">ski resorts</a> are becoming more expensive to operate or are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/14/travel/global-warming-ski-resort.html">struggling to stay open</a>, increasingly making winter sports the purview of the privileged elite. By one estimate, the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016305556">winter recreation season in the US</a> will be cut in half by 2050.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9oqSeh">
|
|||
|
|
Without direct experience, fans may have a harder time getting interested in and following professional winter sports, according to Kellison. “I do think as participation goes down in these sports, there will be concerns about the [fandom] of that sport at the highest levels,” he said.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QPFMRS">
|
|||
|
|
The love of winter sports poses a dilemma for some fans and athletes. “To face a future without these sports is challenging, but it’s equally challenging to wrestle with the massive environmental footprint that our sport can have, from the emissions involved in getting to the mountain, to snowmaking, and the energy involved in operating lifts and lights and all the rest,” said <a href="https://www.madeleineorr.com/">Madeline Orr</a>, founder of the Sport Ecology Group and a lecturer Loughborough University London, in an email. “That said, I have full confidence the industry and snow sports community will find ways to continue innovating on this issue and finding ways to adapt, because snow sports are central to our culture.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hlijvn">
|
|||
|
|
For Jones, the big mountain snowboarder, climate change has made him rethink how he pursues his career. “My approach drastically changed to the point of way less travel, and no longer embracing helicopters and snowmobiles,” Jones said. He said he’s “really focusing on human power — foot-power snowboarding where I’m hiking these mountains.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="8rSQuy">
|
|||
|
|
He acknowledged that in the big picture, losing places to ski, snowshoe, and snowboard are less devastating than other impacts of climate change. Rising winter temperatures are slowing the accumulation of snowpack in key watersheds, and in areas like the Sierra Nevada, that’s leading to patterns of flooding in the winter and drought in the summer. Declining snowpack is a key factor in <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/02/27/810095428/low-snowpack-in-california-mountains-may-mean-more-wildfires-this-
|
|||
|
|
summer">wildfire risk and recovery</a> in the Western US. Warmer winters are also fueling <a href="https://www.vox.com/22383707/allergies-2021-pollen-allergy-covid-19-climate-change-asthma">more severe allergy seasons</a>, helping disease-carrying critters spread further, and creating a mismatch between <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/109/23/9000?ijkey=51ababeaf63fc71a1899f04e299ae953a65aa275&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha">flowering plants and their pollinators</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LsMCjm">
|
|||
|
|
But winter sports also help create more than $800 billion in economic activity in the US, support more than 7 million jobs, and inspire millions to head outdoors into chilly weather, according to Protect Our Winters. The Winter Olympics are a prime opportunity to channel the world’s attention toward a threat and motivate people to find solutions.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0qOGPa">
|
|||
|
|
“To me, it’s this opportunity to collectively come together around trying to save winter,” Jones said. “We need urgency on climate action.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gMnhRn">
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>India vs West Indies, 1st ODI | Chahal, Washington restrict Windies to 176</strong> - Bowlers set the tone for a possible victory in historic 1000th ODI for India</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Lata Mangeshkar and her love for cricket | When Nightangle of India rescued BCCI post 83 World Cup win</strong> - Lata ji had also kept a fast for India’s victory in 2011 World Cup semifinal clash against Pakistan</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The making of Under-19 World Cup hero Raj Bawa</strong> - The all-rounder watched Yuvraj Singh train under his dad and soon the former India star became the young boy’s role model</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Laxman lauds BCCI and its structure after India’s fifth U-19 World Cup triumph</strong> - BCCI president Sourav Ganguly announced a cash award of ₹40 lakhs for the entire team</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Lewis Hamilton ends silence, posts ‘I’m back!’ on social media</strong> - Hamilton had dropped out of public sight after he was denied a record eighth championship in the December finale in Abu Dhabi</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Punjab Assembly elections | Charanjit Singh Channi is Congress CM candidate: Rahul Gandhi</strong> - Rahul Gandhi made the announcement while addressing a virtual rally in Punjab’s Ludhianai</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>U.P. Assembly elections 2022 | Covid hampered development works, Adityanath will put State on path of recovery: Modi</strong> - Mr. Modi was addressing voters in Mathura, Agra and Bulandshahr, days before the first phase of the State Assembly polls</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Forest Department to set up second hatchery for Olive Ridleys off ECR in Villupuram</strong> - The existing hatchery at Vasuvankuppam has almost reached its full capacity</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>18 JNTUA students suspended for ragging freshers, police begins probe</strong> - Anantapur Superintendent of Police said that he had suo-motu taken cognizance of the incident.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Lata Mangeshkar left a permanent impression for last 8 decades: Telangana CM KCR</strong> - Lata Mangeshkar’s death is a void, which can never be filled in the music world of the country, the Telangana CM said</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine tensions: US sources say Russia 70% ready to invade</strong> - Moscow has amassed most of the military capability needed for a full-scale invasion, officials say.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Emir Abdelkader: French sculpture of Algerian hero vandalised</strong> - Vandals damage the depiction of Emir Abdelkader, once ‘France’s worst enemy’, before its inauguration.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>World War Two: Nazi guard’s son finds propaganda in loft</strong> - Craig Lambert’s father guarded Hitler’s deputy, Rudolph Hess, during his life sentence in Berlin.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Iceland whaling: Fisheries minister signals end from 2024</strong> - A fall in demand for Icelandic whale products means the controversial practice is no longer profitable.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>EuroMillions: UK player wins £109.9m jackpot</strong> - A UK player matches all seven numbers to take the biggest prize of the year so far.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The oldest hominin fossil ever found in the Levant</strong> - The fossil hints that early members of our genus expanded out of Africa in waves. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1831793">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>This fossilized fish skull is filled with feces</strong> - Tiny scavenging worms likely ate their way into the skull and pooped out the pellets. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1831979">link</a></p></li>
|
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Spotify removes 70 Joe Rogan episodes as he faces heat over use of n-word</strong> - Rogan addresses his repeated use of the n-word and <em>Planet of the Apes</em> comments. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1832077">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The weekend’s best deals: Apple Watch Series 7, LG C1 OLED TV, and more</strong> - Dealmaster also has the iPad Air, AirPods, SSDs, and microSD cards. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1831886">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Great balls of fire: A monk named Gervase saw ball lightning way back in 1195</strong> - Gervase of Canterbury described a “fiery globe” falling toward the Thames. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1830197">link</a></p></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>My wife just gave birth today</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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<div class="md">
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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After thanking the doctor, I pulled him aside, and sheepishly asked, “How soon do you think we’ll be able to have sex?”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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He winked at me and said, “I’m off duty in ten minutes - meet me in the car park.”
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</p>
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</div>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Prison_Break_31"> /u/Prison_Break_31 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sltid5/my_wife_just_gave_birth_today/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sltid5/my_wife_just_gave_birth_today/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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<li><strong>Just found out that “Aaaaaaarrrrrrggggghhhhh” isn’t a real word.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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<div class="md">
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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I can’t tell you how angry I am.
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- SC_ON -->
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/VERBERD"> /u/VERBERD </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sliu13/just_found_out_that_aaaaaaarrrrrrggggghhhhh_isnt/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sliu13/just_found_out_that_aaaaaaarrrrrrggggghhhhh_isnt/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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<li><strong>A man goes into a bar and orders Kingfisher Beer…</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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<div class="md">
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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A man goes into a bar and orders Kingfisher Beer.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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Lady next to him - What a coincidence, I also ordered the Kingfisher.<br/> Man - I’m celebrating.<br/> Lady - Me too.<br/> Man - What a coincidence! Why are you celebrating?<br/> Lady - My husband & I have been trying 4 yrs for a baby. Today I’m pregnant.<br/> Man - What a coincidence! I am a farmer. For 4 yrs my hens have been infertile, Today all of ’em are laying eggs.<br/> Lady - Wow! How did that happen?<br/> Man - I used a different cock.<br/> Lady smiled & said, “WHAT A COINCIDENCE…!”
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- SC_ON -->
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/MH_Nissan"> /u/MH_Nissan </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sll6ve/a_man_goes_into_a_bar_and_orders_kingfisher_beer/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sll6ve/a_man_goes_into_a_bar_and_orders_kingfisher_beer/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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<li><strong>A 6 year old boy visits the zoo with his parents…</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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<div class="md">
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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…where they stop to see the elephant. While the father’s in the restroom, the son notices one elephant has a rather large erection. Curious, he gets his mom’s attention.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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“Mommy, what’s that hanging from the elephant?” “Oh, that’s its trunk honey.” “No, further back!” “Ah, you mean its tail!” “No, between its legs! That, what is that?” The mother goes red. “Oh, that’s… that’s nothing, honey.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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The father returns and the mother goes off to use the restroom. Still curious, the son asks his dad:
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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“Daddy, what’s that hanging from the elephant?” “His trunk, son.” “No, further back!” “You mean his tail?” “No, that thing! Between his legs!” “Oh, that! Well, that’s the elephant’s penis.” “Oh!… Why did Mommy say it was nothing?” “Son, I have SPOILED that woman.”
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- SC_ON -->
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Remarkable-Youth-504"> /u/Remarkable- Youth-504 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/slk2pd/a_6_year_old_boy_visits_the_zoo_with_his_parents/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/slk2pd/a_6_year_old_boy_visits_the_zoo_with_his_parents/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
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<li><strong>A man went to the store to buy some raisins…</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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<div class="md">
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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When he got there, he asked a cashier, “What aisle are the…”
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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“…raisins in?” she asked.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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“How… how did you know?”
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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|
“I am a psychic. I can read minds.”
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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|
“Really? Well then, what am I…”
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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|
|
“Thinking now? You’re thinking about what I might look like naked.”
|
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|
|
</p>
|
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|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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|
“Yes, I am.”
|
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</p>
|
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|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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|
|
“And now you’re emboldened by the fact that I’m not acting disgusted, so now you think you have a chance to sleep with me.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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|
|
“Also true.”
|
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|
|
</p>
|
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|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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|
|
“And now you have realized the futility of trying to front or flirt, since I know exactly what you’re thinking, no matter how you act or what you say.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
“I am helpless… truly, before you.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
“Then why do you smirk so confidently?”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
“Because you don’t actually know where the fucking raisins are, do you…”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
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|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/askingquestionsblog"> /u/askingquestionsblog </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sldzcc/a_man_went_to_the_store_to_buy_some_raisins/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sldzcc/a_man_went_to_the_store_to_buy_some_raisins/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
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|
|
</ul>
|
|||
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|
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|
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