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<meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, user-scalable=yes" name="viewport"/>
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<title>22 January, 2022</title>
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<title>Daily-Dose</title><meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" name="viewport"/><link href="styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><link href="../styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><style>*{overflow-x:hidden;}</style><link href="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.css" rel="stylesheet"/><script src="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.js"></script></head>
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<body>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Is Ginni Thomas a Threat to the Supreme Court?</strong> - Behind closed doors, Justice Clarence Thomas’s wife is working with many groups directly involved in controversial cases before the Court. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/01/31/is-ginni-thomas-a-threat-to-the-supreme-court">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Why President Biden Bet on a Senate That No Longer Exists</strong> - On the eve of the President’s first anniversary in office, members of the chamber he served for so long voted for paralysis over action. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-president-biden-bet-on-a-senate-that-no-longer-exists">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A Welcome Unfreedom</strong> - Quarantining with my mother in her homeland, I questioned the U.S. approach to the pandemic and public health. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/personal-history/a-welcome-unfreedom-in-south-korea">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Original Shock of the Pompidou Center</strong> - The building was meant to weave the democratic spontaneity of street protests and town squares into the fabric of the city. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/the-original-shock-of-the-pompidou-center">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>What a Fire in the Bronx Says About Immigrant Life in New York</strong> - The death of seventeen people, most of them from the Gambia, evoked the city’s long history of failing to provide safe and affordable housing for migrants. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-a-fire-in-the-bronx-says-about-immigrant-life-in-new-york">link</a></p></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>What Congress’s new election reform idea leaves out</strong> -
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<figure>
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<img alt="Joe Manchin and Susan Collins" src="https://cdn.vox-
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cdn.com/thumbor/nkr9ZzJ1tBsw6-KVFZ-1g7I9N-A=/455x0:7728x5455/1310x983/cdn.vox-
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cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70419895/1237858305.0.jpg"/>
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<figcaption>
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Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), and Joe Manchin, (D-WV), talk with reporters about voting rights in the US Capitol on Thursday, January 20, 2022. | Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc/Getty Images
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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Improving the Electoral Count Act isn’t enough to protect voting rights and stop election subversion.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="T2u5NE">
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<a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/1/19/22881837/senate-filibuster-vote-voting-rights-joe-manchin-kyrsten-sinema">While voting rights legislation is pretty much doomed</a> due to Republican opposition and moderate Democrats’ decision to keep the filibuster intact, there’s still hope for a much narrower election reform: <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-
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and-politics/22876361/freedom-to-vote-act-senate-filibuster-what-next">changes to the Electoral Count Act (ECA).</a>
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1W2r30">
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<a href="https://www.axios.com/bipartisan-group-electoral-
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reform-0ffe46fc-4801-4e74-be2c-687922c52fff.html">A bipartisan group of roughly 12 lawmakers</a>, including Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Mitt Romney (R-UT), and Joe Manchin (D-WV), is now in talks about possible ECA updates, though it’s unclear if enough Republicans would ultimately sign on to reach the 60-vote threshold any bill needs to pass. Because the law governs how Congress counts presidential election results, reforms could address vulnerabilities that <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/1/6/22217203/trump-ellipse-speech-primary-republicans-overturn-the-election-pence">former President Donald Trump tried to exploit last January.</a>
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eht8R4">
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These updates, however, wouldn’t bring about the sweeping protections Democrats hoped to institute <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-
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politics/22876361/freedom-to-vote-act-senate-filibuster-what-next">with the voting rights package that failed this week</a>, and wouldn’t be enough to stop election subversion at the state level. The push to reform the ECA is also indicative of the legislative limits the party faces with the filibuster intact. Because they need GOP support for most bills, Democrats might be able to take some small steps toward their policy goals, but only the ones that Republicans allow.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="xuAKE1">
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“American democracy faces multiple threats — the possibility of interference with the electoral count is just one of them,” said Alex Tausanovitch, the director of campaign finance and election reform at the Center for American Progress. “Just reforming the Electoral Count Act would be like only locking your back door. There’s a broader set of precautions we should take, particularly when something as fundamental as the democratic process is at stake.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="X54IUz">
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Like Democrats’ push to pass new federal voting rights protections, updates to the ECA are a direct response to Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election results, though they only address one aspect of these efforts.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WbVyyU">
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As Congress was certifying election results last January, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/05/us/politics/pence-trump-election.html">Trump urged Vice President Mike Pence to throw out certain results</a>, something Pence ultimately declined to do. Modifications of the ECA could make it clear that a vice president is unable to discard election results, and thus unable to overturn an election. In addition, the updated ECA could make it tougher for lawmakers to challenge states’ results, thereby avoiding a situation where a group of lawmakers conspires to nullify valid election results as some Republicans attempted to do in 2021.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4q0QeP">
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Although these reforms are critical and worth pursuing, election law experts say they’re no replacement for measures intended to increase voting access and combat attempts at partisan election interference in different states. Because reforms to the ECA would narrowly apply to Congress’s role in presidential elections, they wouldn’t confront state laws that restrict early voting access and vote-by-mail, and they wouldn’t counter state <a href="https://votingrightslab.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/20210924-VRL-Election-Subversion-Report-.pdf">legislatures’ attempts to exert control over local election administration</a>. Collins has said she hopes a bipartisan elections measure could also help strengthen protections for poll workers and election officials who’ve faced growing threats of violence. The limitations of these possible reforms, though, have not escaped notice from some Democratic lawmakers.<strong> </strong>
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MjVPRR">
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“I support reforming the Electoral Count Act,” said Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in a floor speech on Wednesday. “That said, reforming the Electoral Count Act will do virtually nothing to address the sweeping voter suppression and election subversion efforts taking place in Georgia, and in states and localities nationwide.”
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</p>
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<h3 id="SP91rP">
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The Electoral Count Act, briefly explained
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6Dn7zA">
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The Electoral Count Act, which was first passed in 1887, lays out how Congress counts each state’s electoral votes in a presidential election, and how lawmakers should respond if states send in competing sets of results.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="dk5rR1">
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As it works now, Congress receives the presidential election results from each state and has the job of counting and certifying, or finalizing, these results. To do so, Congress gathers the January after the presidential election for a joint session in order to go through each state’s results. As the results are read, lawmakers can contest them as long as one House member and one senator agree to register their objections.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0JuUNs">
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If an objection is made, the House and Senate will then each debate the objection and vote on it: For the results to actually be contested, a majority of members in both bodies need to agree to it. Otherwise the objection is dispensed with and the results are counted as is.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ipPFUe">
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This provision in the law was particularly relevant last year.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iFGJ0q">
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In January 2021, House Republicans raised objections about the results in six states, though only their objections toward the Arizona and Pennsylvania results had Senate support. Neither of those objections received a majority of support in either chamber.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1NFFQy">
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In the past, lawmakers have raised objections regarding the Georgia results in Trump’s election in 2016 and the Ohio results in former President George W. Bush’s election in 2004. The objections to the 2020 presidential results, however, were unique in the number of states that were contested, and the number of Republicans who supported the effort. In the end, 147 Republicans maintained their objections <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/1/6/22218058/republicans-objections-election-results">to the outcome in Pennsylvania or Arizona.</a>
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kQyKuf">
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During the certification process, the vice president also has what’s typically a ceremonial role that’s detailed in the ECA. Their job is to open each state’s electoral results, present them to Congress and preside over the joint session. Once the outcomes in each state are tallied, the vice president will also announce which candidate received a majority of the electoral votes to win the presidency.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="82Oxu0">
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In 2021, however, Trump urged Pence to consider overturning the results by rejecting the outcomes in several states. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/20/politics/trump-pence-election-memo/index.html">According to <em>Peril</em>,</a> a book by Bob Woodward and Robert Costa, attorney John Eastman, a member of Trump’s legal team, laid out a plan for how Pence could discard the electoral outcomes in seven states and declare Trump the winner. Pence, however, concluded there was no legal basis for him to do so and refused to follow through on the plan. Changing the ECA would further guarantee that a vice president wouldn’t be able to take such actions.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PUJawq">
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<a href="https://news.yahoo.com/bipartisan-senate-group-looks-to-prevent-election-subversion-175900589.html">As a Yahoo News report notes,</a> another current shortcoming in the ECA is the leeway it gives states regarding the slates of electors they could send to Congress, potentially giving states the ability to overturn results if their legislatures decide to do so:
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</p>
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<blockquote>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mZTGya">
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At the state level, the ECA gives governors enormous power over the slate of electors sent to the Electoral College. As of now, there is room under the law for a state legislature to try to throw out the popular vote in its state by sending a competing slate of electors to Congress. If the governor signs off on that slate, then the law would dictate that those electors are the ones that are counted.
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</p>
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</blockquote>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FFHtic">
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<a href="https://twitter.com/Matt_Seligman/status/1482112963494490116">Matthew Seligman,</a> a fellow at the Center for Private Law at Yale Law School, has said that the ECA could be updated to more plainly state when electors can be chosen.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GmzRwk">
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In addition to pressuring his vice president to disregard the election’s outcome, Trump’s push to contest the 2020 results, coupled with GOP lawmakers’ assertions that there was something amiss about those results, spurred thousands of his supporters to storm the Capitol as the certification process was taking place on January 6, 2021.
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</p>
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<h3 id="pyVAfk">
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How lawmakers plan to change the Electoral Count Act
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="CBJ1cJ">
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Talks about ECA reforms are still in their early stages at the moment, though they have picked up support from both sides of the aisle. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is among those who has signaled an openness to considering them, an indication that there could be sufficient Republican support for a measure to pass the upper chamber.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XCT4ks">
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ECA changes could help close certain loopholes that Trump tried to capitalize on during the vote certification process in 2021, several of which <a href="https://cha.house.gov/sites/democrats.cha.house.gov/files/documents/Electoral%20Count%20Act%20Staff%20Report_.pdf">the House Administration Committee</a> pointed to in its recommendations for reforms.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RXkUnD">
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One of these suggestions would be increasing the threshold of lawmakers needed for an objection to be registered. Instead of only requiring one House member and one senator to raise an objection, committee staff recommends increasing this threshold to one-third of the members in the House and the Senate. Additionally, staff suggests that the vice president only have a very limited role in the process — including opening and presenting the electoral counts, but not presiding over the counting as they have in the past.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Uvsp8d">
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“There’s a good win there,” <a href="https://wkzo.com/2022/01/20/bipartisan-u-s-senate-group-seeks-plan-b-on-voting-rights-after-democratic-bills-
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defeat/">Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) previously told reporters</a> when asked about potential changes. “I mean, my goodness, that’s what caused the insurrection.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="dxVLgp">
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But there’s a lot the proposed updates wouldn’t accomplish.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="sYUPFj">
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Reforms to the ECA wouldn’t address pressure campaigns the former president launched in places like Georgia and Arizona, where he and allies urged election officials to ignore the electoral outcomes. (<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-committed-crimes-over-georgia-election-interference-report-2021-9">Trump could face charges</a> for trying to interfere in the Georgia election.)
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="H1aiMU">
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ECA reforms also wouldn’t combat a new Georgia law that enables the <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-
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analysis/blogs/stateline/2021/07/28/republican-legislators-curb-authority-of-county-state-election-officials">state election board to suspend local election officials</a>, or the initial refusal of two Wayne County, Michigan, <a href="https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/11/wayne-county-canvassers-dont-certify-election-results-
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in-2-2-vote.html">election canvassers to certify the region’s results in 2020</a> (both officials ended up reversing course). And it wouldn’t curb audits by states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which have forced partisan reviews of election results that undercut trust in the outcome.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="SW0LRf">
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“One of the concerns is that states are taking steps to change state processes and authorities for certifying elections,” said Professor Rebecca Green, a co-director of the election law program at William and Mary Law School. “Electoral Count Act reforms would not touch those internal state processes, which are the domain of states and state legislatures.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="N4Syv1">
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In addition to the limited role it can play in fighting election subversion, these reforms also offer no new protections for voters in states like Georgia, Texas, and Arizona, which have all recently passed laws intended to restrict access to the ballot by banning things like drive-through voting and shortening the time frame for submitting mail-in ballots.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="HYTz6W">
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Changes to the ECA “don’t do anything to block the suppression that’s taking place,” said Cliff Albright, a co-founder of the advocacy group Black Voters Matter. “They don’t block the attacks on drop boxes, on vote-by-mail, the criminalizing of people who give out food and water. They don’t block any of that.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="DwZk0U">
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There’s another potential issue with the ECA reforms currently under discussion as well. Albright notes that the reforms could actually inadvertently enable election subversion if they make it harder for lawmakers to contest state results should state officials submit partisan results that do not match up with the actual outcome.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qBja33">
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“Let’s say we have nefarious state officials. If you raise the threshold that you need [for objections], you certainly make it harder to smoke out that kind of nefarious problem with the election officials,” said Hamline University political science professor David Schultz.
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</p>
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<h3 id="MUo9Nu">
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Changes to the ECA are indicative of the watered-down policies Democrats will have to consider
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9XKCL4">
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Whether any ECA changes actually materialize is an open question. In the past, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/04/gop-hatches-another-lucy-and-the-football-scam-democrats-
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prep-response/">Republicans have signaled interest in policies</a>, only for talks to falter when there’s been disagreement on key provisions. In the case of a 2020 and 2021 push for police reform, for example, Republicans expressed interest in a bipartisan compromise, but talks collapsed after members of both parties couldn’t overcome their differences on the issue of qualified immunity. The same dynamic has played out on gun control, which has garnered bipartisan support that’s failed to translate to concrete policies.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qUGNWl">
|
|||
|
|
On the issue of voting rights more specifically, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) has said she’d be open to working on a more limited measure that addresses voter protections and has previously voted in favor of advancing the <a href="https://www.ktoo.org/2021/11/04/murkowski-is-the-only-senate-republican-who-voted-to-advance-voting-rights-
|
|||
|
|
bill/">John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act.</a> There aren’t yet the 10 necessary Republican votes needed to actually pass a bill on that front yet either.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="NKIZ2O">
|
|||
|
|
That means the ECA reform may be all Democrats are able to accomplish on elections in the near term, making it an example of how Democrats have to settle, since conservative members of their caucus have voted to preserve the filibuster. Because of Senate rules, Democrats will have to water down their proposals on everything from immigration reform to the minimum wage in order to have a shot of picking up any Republican support.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jNDTnT">
|
|||
|
|
For now, the changes to the ECA seem like the most tenable election reform that lawmakers at the federal level may be able to achieve. Because of the narrow majority they have and the existing Senate rules, Democrats will likely need to make similarly drastic concessions on other priorities if they want to get anything done.
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>Can Russia back down in Ukraine?</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/RgbdgEgAxYEaWXq9tieQQFWTRlo=/392x0:4765x3280/1310x983/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70419836/AP22020041850813.0.jpg"/>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
A convoy of Russian armored vehicles moves along a highway in Crimea on January 18. Russia has concentrated an estimated 100,000 troops with tanks and other heavy weapons near Ukraine. | AP
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Russia’s invasion threat looms, and there have been no diplomatic breakthroughs yet.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="dgc42M">
|
|||
|
|
“My guess is he will move in. He has to do something,” President Joe Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/01/19/remarks-by-president-
|
|||
|
|
biden-in-press-conference-6/">said</a> of Russian President Vladimir Putin during a Wednesday press conference. Biden was describing the predicament his counterpart has created for himself in Eastern Europe, as Russia <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/12/8/22824015/russia-ukraine-troops-tensions-putin-biden-nato">has stationed tens of thousands of troops</a> along the Ukrainian border.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="J7meaJ">
|
|||
|
|
Biden added that there is space to work with Russia on a peaceful solution if Putin wants it, but if he escalates, “I think it will hurt him badly.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yNqmFo">
|
|||
|
|
It was a remarkably blunt — <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-
|
|||
|
|
daily/2022/01/20/no-minor-blowback-to-bidens-ukraine-gaffe-495795?tab=most-read">maybe too blunt</a> — assessment of the standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine, which is staring down the threat of a possible Russian invasion. The crisis <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/12/8/22824015/russia-ukraine-troops-tensions-putin-biden-nato">has built and built</a>, lately with renewed signs of Russian aggression, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14/ukraine-massive-cyber-attack-government-websites-suspected-russian-
|
|||
|
|
hackers">from cyberattacks on Ukrainian government websites</a> to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/russia-moves-troops-to-belarus-for-joint-exercises-near-ukraine-
|
|||
|
|
border">Kremlin moving troops to neighboring<strong> </strong>Belarus for joint military exercises</a>. Against this backdrop, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/us-russia-talks-ukraine-/31645760.html">diplomatic talks in Geneva between the US and Russia sputtered earlier this month</a>, and renewed efforts between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday produced <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/top-diplomats-us-
|
|||
|
|
russia-meet-geneva-soaring-ukraine-
|
|||
|
|
tensions-2022-01-21/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=The%20Reuters%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_content=21-1-22&utm_campaign=21-1-22">no big breakthroughs</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nydzI7">
|
|||
|
|
Blinken <a href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-a-
|
|||
|
|
press-availability-12/">said Friday</a> that the two would speak again after the US consults with its allies and responds to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-
|
|||
|
|
nato">a series of demands</a> from Russia. It’s one sign there might still be a way out of the crisis, if not exactly an optimistic one.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OIAbok">
|
|||
|
|
Some of the big-ticket demands on Russia’s list are nonstarters with US and NATO allies, something Russia also probably knows. For example, Moscow wants guarantees that NATO would not expand eastward, including to Ukraine, and a rolling back of troop deployment to some former Soviet states, which would turn back the clock decades on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/17/world/europe/russia-nato-security-deal.html">Europe’s security and geopolitical alignment.</a> These demands are “a Russian attempt, not only to secure his interest in Ukraine, but essentially re-litigate the security architecture in Europe,” said Michael Kofman, research director in the Russia studies program at CNACNA, a research and analysis organization in Arlington, Virginia.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/hCvOOGhgL0QmC694rnEvb_qp5m0=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg"/>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="DRR3Eb">
|
|||
|
|
In other words, this is about Ukraine. But Ukraine is also a stage for Russia’s own insecurities about its place in Europe and the world, and how Putin’s legacy is tied up all in that.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Odj1ei">
|
|||
|
|
“For Russia, what it sees as Western encroachment into Ukraine is a very big part of how the West has been weakening Russia, and infringing on a security interest for all of this time,” said Olga Oliker, program director for Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3U9gdZ">
|
|||
|
|
All of this makes it difficult to see a diplomatic way out, especially when 100,000 troops are posted along the Ukrainian border. Russia has denied that it has plans to invade, and few believe Putin has fully made up his mind on what he wants to do. But with all the threats and ultimatums, Putin may still have to do something if he cannot wrest concessions from the West.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="C6PEf1">
|
|||
|
|
“In a certain way, [he] has put himself in a corner,” said Natia Seskuria, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. “Because he can only do this once.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="HTbqed">
|
|||
|
|
Diplomacy isn’t totally dead. But it’s not going great.
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Zvv19B">
|
|||
|
|
Russia presented the United States with its demands last month. It requested “legally binding <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-
|
|||
|
|
makes-sweeping-demands-security-guarantees-us-amid/story?id=81821816">security guarantees,”</a> including a stop to eastward NATO expansion, which would exclude Ukraine from ever joining, and that NATO would not deploy troops or conduct military activities in countries that joined the alliance after 1997, which includes <a href="https://www.gov.pl/web/national-defence/poland-in-nato-20-years">Poland </a>and former Soviet states in the <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2019/10/the-breakaways-a-retrospective-on-the-baltic-road-to-nato/">Baltics</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="D22h1b">
|
|||
|
|
Kyiv and NATO have grown closer over the last decade-plus, and <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_190906.htm">actively cooperate</a>. But Ukraine is nowhere close to officially joining NATO, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/video/8524725/biden-says-likelihood-of-ukraine-joining-nato-in-
|
|||
|
|
near-term-is-not-very-likely">something the US openly admits</a>, and something Russia also knows. Still, NATO says Ukrainian future membership is a possibility<strong> </strong>because of its <a href="https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2016_07/20160627_1607-factsheet-enlargement-eng.pdf">open- door policy</a>, which says each country can freely choose its own security arrangements. To bar Ukrainian ascension would effectively give Russia a veto on NATO membership and cooperation. Removing NATO’s military presence on the alliance’s eastern flank would restore Russia’s influence over European security, remaking it into something a bit more Cold War-esque.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="UCUehY">
|
|||
|
|
Russia almost certainly knew that the US and NATO would never go for this. The question is what Putin thought he had to gain by making an impossible opening bid. Some see it as a way to justify invasion, blaming the United States for the implosion of any talks. “This is a tried-and-true Russian tactic of using diplomacy to say that they’re the good guys, in spite of their maximalist demands, that [they’re] able to go to their people and say, ‘look, we tried everything. The West is a security threat, and so this is why we’re taking these actions,’” said David Salvo, deputy director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy and a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="z3hrUj">
|
|||
|
|
On the other hand, Russia’s hardline requests — alongside its aggressive military buildup — may be intended to get the West to move on <em>something</em>. “I don’t think that this was intended by Putin to fail, as some think. I think it was intended to extract concessions,” said Anatol Lieven, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. “And the question, of course, would be just how many concessions would satisfy the Russian government and obviously allow Putin to build up his domestic prestige.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rbCTag">
|
|||
|
|
And that really is the question, especially since, so far, nothing seems to have really worked. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/12/wendy-sherman-us-veteran-negotiator-ukraine-
|
|||
|
|
europe">seasoned negotiator</a>, met with Russian counterparts in Geneva earlier in January <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-its-disappointed-by-us-signals-before-geneva-talks-2022-01-09/">but made little progress</a>. Blinken and Lavrov met Friday for 90 minutes; the meeting yielded no breakthroughs but Russia and the US agreed to potentially keep at it, after the US delivers written answers to Russia’s demands next week. “I can’t say whether or not we are on the right path,” <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/01/21/world/russia-us-
|
|||
|
|
ukraine#another-high-stakes-us-russia-meeting-comes-as-fears-grow-of-a-new-war-in-europe">Lavrov told reporters</a>, according to the New York Times. “We will understand this when we get the American response on paper to all the points in our proposals.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/fx90X0wAJnBHHC4iIHPGP0rQrWA=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23186308/GettyImages_1237876724.jpg"/> <cite>Russian Foreign Ministry/TASS via Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov shake hands ahead of security talks at the Hotel President Wilson in Geneva, Switzerland, on January 21.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BTM3PN">
|
|||
|
|
Russia might not like the responses on NATO, but there are spaces where the US and NATO could offer concessions, such as greater transparency about military maneuvers and exercises, or more discussions on arms control, including reviving a version of the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/10/22/18008726/trump-
|
|||
|
|
russia-inf-treaty-missile-arms-control">Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty</a>, or even scaling back some US naval exercises in places like the Black Sea, which <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-united-states-black-
|
|||
|
|
sea/31550090.html">Russia sees as a provocation</a>. “There is still potentially room on those fronts,” said Alyssa Demus, senior policy analyst at the Rand Corporation. “That’s entirely possible that the US and Russia or NATO and Russia could negotiate on those — and then maybe table the other issues for a later date.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ePGiLl">
|
|||
|
|
But if the US and NATO extend<strong> </strong>those olive branches or others, that might not be enough for Putin. Neither of these<strong> </strong>will resolve Putin’s fundamental sticking point. He has repeatedly framed the US and NATO as a major security threat to Russia for his domestic audience, including spreading <a href="https://www.state.gov/fact-vs-
|
|||
|
|
fiction-russian-disinformation-on-ukraine/#_edn6">disinformation about the West</a> being behind the real chaos in Ukraine. “Having built up this formidable force, and issued all manner of ominous warnings, he’s got to come back with something tangible,” said Rajan Menon, director of the grand strategy program at Defense Priorities.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="36fwLZ">
|
|||
|
|
Moscow will likely continue the diplomatic route for as long as it thinks it serves its interests. But<strong> </strong>Russia has previously said it wouldn’t <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/russia-wants-quick-us-
|
|||
|
|
response-on-ukraine-security-proposals/a-60422931">“wait forever.”</a> “If they decide that it’s not worth continuing to talk — that they’re not going to get enough of what they want from talking — then they might as well fight,” Oliker said. “Then they’re doing it because they think the fight is going to get them closer to that solution than not fighting.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="yu8LWN">
|
|||
|
|
Russia could opt to destabilize Ukraine — but it’s already been doing that
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5IE5uV">
|
|||
|
|
Russia <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/01/07/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html">has deployed troops, tanks, and artillery near the Ukrainian border</a>, movements that look as though Moscow is preparing for war. But what kind of war will determine the humanitarian, political, and economic tolls, and the response of Ukraine, the United States, and Europe.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="AnQOpQ">
|
|||
|
|
And, really, Ukraine is already at war. In 2014, Russia illegally annexed Crimea, and exploited protests in the Donbas region, in eastern Ukraine, backing and arming pro-Russian separatists. Russia denied its direct involvement, but military units of <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-
|
|||
|
|
crimea/29790037.html">“little green men</a>” — soldiers in uniform but without insignia — moved into the region with equipment. More than <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/content/conflict-ukraines-donbas-visual-explainer">14,000 people have died</a> in the conflict, which ebbs and flows, though <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-11-24/russia-has-deployed-thousands-of-tanks-troops-to-ukraine-
|
|||
|
|
top-official-says">Moscow has fueled the unrest since</a>. Russia has also <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/why-did-
|
|||
|
|
russia-escalate-its-gray-zone-conflict-ukraine">continued to destabilize and undermine Ukraine</a>, including by launching cyberattacks on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russian-military-was-behind-
|
|||
|
|
notpetya-cyberattack-in-ukraine-cia-concludes/2018/01/12/048d8506-f7ca-11e7-b34a-b85626af34ef_story.html">critical infrastructure</a> and conducting <a href="https://jsis.washington.edu/news/russia-disinformation-
|
|||
|
|
ukraine/">disinformation campaigns</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="A7GO5e">
|
|||
|
|
It is possible that Moscow takes aggressive steps — escalating its proxy war, launching sweeping disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks, and applying pressure in all sorts of ways that don’t involve moving Russian troops across the border and won’t invite the most crushing consequences.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QfenBd">
|
|||
|
|
But this route looks a lot like what Russia has already been doing, and it hasn’t gotten Moscow closer to its objectives. “How much more can you destabilize? It doesn’t seem to have had a massive damaging impact on Ukraine’s pursuit of democracy, or even its tilt toward the west,” said Margarita Konaev, associate director of analysis and research fellow at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET).
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="icCU5u">
|
|||
|
|
And that might prompt Moscow to see force as the solution.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="1NpPwV">
|
|||
|
|
What happens if Russia invades
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LiOf1z">
|
|||
|
|
There are plenty of <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-
|
|||
|
|
ukraine">scenarios</a> mapping out a Russian invasion, from sending troops into the breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/if-russia-launches-attack-ukraine-what-might-it-look-
|
|||
|
|
here-n1287369">seizing strategic regions and blockading Ukraine’s access to waterways</a>, to a full-on war with Moscow marching on Kyiv in an attempt to retake the entire country. What Russia does, ultimately, will depend on what it thinks will give it the best chance of getting what it wants from Ukraine, or the West. Any of it could be devastating, though the more expansive the operation, the more catastrophic.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GnnY7TCivTgQyFVg9vbkz57pP3k=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23186318/GettyImages_1237852955.jpg"/> <cite>Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Ukrainian troops stand in a trench on the front line with Russia-backed separatists near Verkhnetoretske village, in the Donetsk region of Ukraine on January 18.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iT6MeG">
|
|||
|
|
A full-on invasion to seize all of Ukraine would be something like Europe hasn’t seen in decades. It could involve urban warfare, including on the streets of Kyiv, and airstrikes on urban centers. It would cause astounding humanitarian consequences, including a refugee crisis. Konaev noted that all urban warfare is harsh, but the specifics of how Russia fights in urban settings — <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/world/middleeast/russia-bombing-syrian-
|
|||
|
|
hospitals.html">witnessed in places like Syria</a> — has been “particularly devastating, with very little regard for civilian protection.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="cUDV5z">
|
|||
|
|
The colossal scale of such an offensive also makes it the least likely, experts say, and it would carry tremendous costs for Russia. “I think Putin himself knows that the stakes are really high,” Seskuria, of RUSI, said. “That’s why I think a full-scale invasion is a riskier option for Moscow in terms of potential political and economic causes — but also due to the number of casualties. Because if we compare Ukraine in 2014 to the Ukrainian army and its capabilities right now, they are much more capable.” (Western training and arms sales have something to do with those increased capabilities, to be sure.)
|
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|
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</p>
|
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|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Lun3dS">
|
|||
|
|
Such an invasion would force Russia to move into areas that are bitterly hostile toward it. That increases the likelihood of a prolonged resistance (possibly even one <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden-military.html">backed by the US</a>) — and an invasion could turn into an occupation. “The sad reality is that Russia could take as much of Ukraine as it wants, but it can’t hold it,” said Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
|
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|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7Z4pTh">
|
|||
|
|
Still, Russia could launch an invasion into <em>parts</em> of Ukraine — moving to secure more of the east, or south to the Black Sea. That would still be a dramatic escalation, but the fallout will depend on what it looks like and what Russia seeks to achieve. The United States and its allies have said that a large-scale invasion will be met with aggressive political and economic consequences, including potentially <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/how-financial-western-sanctions-might-target-russia-2022-01-19/">cutting Russia off from the global financial system</a> to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-may-consider-
|
|||
|
|
halting-nord-stream-2-if-russia-attacks-ukraine-scholz-says-2022-01-18/">nixing</a> the Russia-to-Germany <a href="https://www.vox.com/22881709/nord-stream-2-russia-ukraine-germany-united-states-cruz">Nord Stream 2 pipeline</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="cNfU7O">
|
|||
|
|
Biden, during his Wednesday remarks, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-
|
|||
|
|
remarks/2022/01/19/remarks-by-president-biden-in-press-conference-6/">said</a> that if Russia invades it will be held accountable, though “it depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and then we end up having to fight about what to do and not to do.”
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MBIxyM">
|
|||
|
|
Some accused Biden of signaling that Russia could get away with a baby invasion, though the White House later clarified that any move across the Ukrainian border will be met with <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/20/1074466148/biden-russia-ukraine-minor-incursion">“a swift, severe, and united response</a>” from the US and its allies. Ukraine has said there is no such thing as a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/01/20/1074466148/biden-russia-ukraine-minor-incursion">“minor incursion.”</a> But those remarks also reflected the challenges of trying to contain Russia in a place the United States and Europe do not themselves want to fight, and where allies do have <a href="https://www.vox.com/22881709/nord-stream-2-russia-ukraine-
|
|||
|
|
germany-united-states-cruz">competing interests</a>.
|
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|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="UDz3qs">
|
|||
|
|
And Putin, of course, already knows this. “The question is,” Konaev said, “how much military power [Russia is] willing to commit to where it will call it a day and call it goals achieved?”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="m4b83U">
|
|||
|
|
Has Putin backed himself into a corner?
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="APvnup">
|
|||
|
|
Putin’s ultimatum — give me Ukraine, and a say in Europe, or I may do something with all these troops — is a dangerous one. Not just because, well, war, but because it has created a situation where Putin himself has to deliver. “He has two options,” said Olga Lautman, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, “to say, ‘never mind, just kidding,’ which will show his weakness and shows that he was intimidated by US and Europe standing together — and that creates weakness for him at home and with countries he’s attempting influence.”
|
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|
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</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eDi4MS">
|
|||
|
|
“Or he goes full forward with an attack,” she said. “At this point, we don’t know where it’s going, but the prospects are very grim.”
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yomaI1">
|
|||
|
|
This is the corner Putin has put himself in, which makes a walk-back from Russia seem difficult to fathom. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, and it doesn’t eliminate the possibility of some sort of diplomatic solution that gives Putin enough cover to declare victory without the West meeting his explicit demands. It also doesn’t eliminate the possibility that Russia and the United States will be stuck in this standoff for months longer, with Ukraine caught in the middle and under sustained threat from Russia.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oHFK8x">
|
|||
|
|
But it also means the prospect of war remains. “The Russian government has not decided definitely on war. In other words, there is still a possibility of compromise,” Lieven said. “But that war is certainly much, much more likely than it has ever been since 2015.”
|
|||
|
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</p>
|
|||
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PIj0de">
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>The hidden lesson in the new free Covid-19 tests</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/xpKlbCtLEjvxVyL9OMzs0_sS2Sw=/171x0:2902x2048/1310x983/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70419773/1236974841.0.jpg"/>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
A woman receives a package with a rapid Covid-19 test in Gentbrugge, Belgium. In the US, free tests by mail are starting to roll out. | Philippe Francois/Belga Mag/AFP via Getty Images
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
It is possible to create programs that don’t burden the people who need them most.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="tsYs2z">
|
|||
|
|
<em>This is an excerpt from the newsletter for The Weeds. To sign up for a weekly dive into policy and its effects on people, click </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/weeds-
|
|||
|
|
newsletter"><em>here</em></a><em>.</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BkOwWR">
|
|||
|
|
This week, the Biden administration rolled out a plan to send up to four free Covid-19 tests to every household in America.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="koRdBe">
|
|||
|
|
But you probably already knew that. At times, <a href="https://link.vox.com/click/26445581.25002/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGhldmVyZ2UuY29tLzIwMjIvMS8xOC8yMjg4OTc2OS91cy1nb3Zlcm5tZW50LWZyZWUtY292aWQtdGVzdC13ZWJzaXRlLW1hc3NpdmUtcGFnZS12aWV3Y291bnQ/608882a30f10407b8071b663Bc95a4a5a">there were over 700,000 <em>concurrent </em>visitors</a> to the page on the USPS site — more than every other .gov page combined.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="R6beUU">
|
|||
|
|
The enthusiastic response was remarkable because it was unusual. There are at least three different ways the Covid-19 test rollout succeeded where people expect government to fail:
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5KYMhQ">
|
|||
|
|
It highlighted the failures of industrial and regulatory policy that have led to widespread shortages in at-home Covid-19 tests, and delays in results coming back from test sites.
|
|||
|
|
</li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JC5Vix">
|
|||
|
|
It brought back memories of new government websites being unable to handle high traffic volume (e.g. Healthcare.gov).
|
|||
|
|
</li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hJ5JRO">
|
|||
|
|
It was quick and simple:<em> </em>The only information people needed to provide was their street address.
|
|||
|
|
</li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9ZOSkz">
|
|||
|
|
The execution wasn’t perfect (a flaw affecting some apartment dwellers led the government to limit some buildings to a single four-test order) but that didn’t dampen the enthusiasm. Which tells us something about how difficult Americans expect it to be to interact with the government, especially when trying to get the assistance the government has promised them.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="63xEfN">
|
|||
|
|
Emotional labor, but for government
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qOY4K7">
|
|||
|
|
There are a few ways to think about these bureaucratic struggles. One, coined by Annie Lowrey in a 2021 <a href="https://link.vox.com/click/26445581.25002/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGhlYXRsYW50aWMuY29tL3BvbGl0aWNzL2FyY2hpdmUvMjAyMS8wNy9ob3ctZ292ZXJubWVudC1sZWFybmVkLXdhc3RlLXlvdXItdGltZS10YXgvNjE5NTY4Lw/608882a30f10407b8071b663B5b2f36e8">Atlantic feature</a>, is the “time tax” — the amount of time and energy that people waste interacting with the government. But my preferred term, popularized by the academics Donald Moynihan, Pamela Herd, and Hope Harvey is <a href="https://link.vox.com/click/26445581.25002/aHR0cDovL2pvdXJuYWxzLm1vdW50YWludG9wdW5pdmVyc2l0eS5lZHUubmcvUHVibGljJTIwQWRtaW5pc3RyYXRpb24vQWRtaW5pc3RyYXRpdmUlMjBCdXJkZW4tJTIwTGVhcm5pbmcsJTIwUHN5Y2hvbG9naWNhbCwlMjBhbmQlMjBDb21wbGlhbmNlJTIwQ29zdHMlMjBpbiUyMENpdGl6ZW4tU3RhdGUlMjBJbnRlcmFjdGlvbnMucGRm/608882a30f10407b8071b663B17553128">“administrative burden”</a> — which refers not only to the concrete loss of time and money, but to the cognitive and psychological burdens of having to learn and comply with government rules.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kI6E2K">
|
|||
|
|
It’s hard to say just how much administrative burden there is. There’s no attempt to synthesize information about it even at the federal level, let alone the state and local governments that are responsible for implementing most safety-net programs. The best way to understand it is to look at all the labor involved to access a specific program: <a href="https://link.vox.com/click/26445581.25002/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucHJvcHVibGljYS5vcmcvYXJ0aWNsZS9ob3ctbm9ydGgtY2Fyb2xpbmEtdHJhbnNmb3JtZWQtaXRzZWxmLWludG8tdGhlLXdvcnN0LXN0YXRlLXRvLWJlLXVuZW1wbG95ZWQ/608882a30f10407b8071b663B1dc4e191">unemployment benefits in North Carolina</a>, for example.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pKuQJ7">
|
|||
|
|
The one overarching truth is that administrative burdens particularly harm people already marginalized because they’re most in need of assistance and because they’re most likely to have difficulty jumping through all the hoops. Maybe they don’t have a computer, maybe they don’t speak English or understand legalese, or maybe they have to forgo shifts at work just to go to the right office to submit a form.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7jqvVS">
|
|||
|
|
By extension, any restriction on who is eligible for benefits increases administrative burden, not only for people who apply and are found ineligible but also those who have to do more work to prove eligibility in the first place. The Covid-19 test webpage could be easy because there were no restrictions; it didn’t need to ask about anything besides your address.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7dMqts">
|
|||
|
|
There’s also a second-order way that making programs universal fights administrative burden: When politically empowered, privileged Americans are inconvenienced by something, they’re more likely to make noise and get it to change.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TYQFtm">
|
|||
|
|
But there is little if any political incentive to reduce the burden on people who politicians don’t typically listen to or need to court, such as noncitizens or people disenfranchised due to criminal records.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qYlSnN">
|
|||
|
|
<em>If you work in government or as a service provider — or if you are or know someone who’s been further marginalized by the hassle of administrative burden — I’m really curious to learn more about what you’ve seen. You can email </em><a href="mailto:weeds@vox.com"><em>weeds@vox.com</em></a><em>. It’s always good when The Weeds can talk about policy not only from the perspective of its designers, but also its users.</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>F1 bans pre-race military flypasts, Red Arrows get exemption</strong> - Italy’s Corriere della Sera reported that the country’s Frecce Tricolori would no longer feature at Imola and Monza this year, however</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Australian Open | Sabalenka overcomes serving issues to see off Vondrousova</strong> - The Belarusian, who has won 10 WTA singles titles, back from a set down to defeat her opponent 4-6, 6-3, 6-1</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Prime Volleyball League moved from Kochi to Hyderabad</strong> - Rising COVID cases in Kerala behind the change in venue</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Where we need to get better is right in front of us: K.L. Rahul</strong> - For the second game in a row, Indian bowlers looked pedestrian especially in the middle overs</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Tata Steel Masters | Vidit Gujrathi remains among the leaders</strong> - Gujrathi shared honours with Jan-Krzysztof Duda (Poland) to take his tally to four points while Praggnanandhaa (2.5 points) held Sam Shankland (U.S.) to a draw late on January 21</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ayyanna ridicules Jagan’s proposal to build one airport in every district</strong> - ‘Chief Minister has already pushed the State into a debt trap’</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>VUPPC launches signature campaign against sale of steel plant</strong> - One crore signatures will be collected from people, says CITU State president</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Coimbatore-based entrepreneur’s innovative machines make eco-friendly food containers</strong> - The machine upcycles red chillies, tamarind seeds and peanut shells to create inventive, eco-friendly food containers</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Data | Why are petrol prices steady</strong> - The retail price is linked to the international crude oil prices and that is why it changes every day</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Jaishankar speaks with Kuwaiti, Qatari counterparts; discusses ties, Afghanistan</strong> - “Spoke on our bilateral, economic and energy cooperation.”</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine tension: US ‘lethal aid’ arrives in Kyiv amid border build-up</strong> - The first delivery of a security assistance package includes ammunition for “front line defenders”.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Serbia revokes Rio Tinto lithium mine permits following protests</strong> - The country cancels the mining licence for the Anglo-Australian firm’s controversial $2.4bn project.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>French elections: Divided left fight doomed race of their own</strong> - For the first time in living memory there is no left-wing candidate challenging for the presidency.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>French tourist Benjamin Briere goes on trial in Iran for espionage</strong> - Benjamin Brière was arrested in 2020 after flying a drone near the Iran-Turkmenistan border.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine tension: US and Russia hold ‘frank’ talks</strong> - Their top diplomats say they want to pursue dialogue as fears of Russian military action persist.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>This 22-year-old builds chips in his parents’ garage</strong> - Sam Zeloof’s creations show what’s possible for small-scale silicon tinkerers. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1827533">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Study: Leidenfrost effect occurs in all three water phases: Solid, liquid, and vapor</strong> - But there’s a much higher threshold of 550° C for levitation of an ice disk to occur. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1827280">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Picard and Guinan have a warm reunion in S2 trailer for Star Trek: Picard</strong> - “Your answers are not in the stars and they never have been.” - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1827532">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Unvaccinated 5X more likely to get omicron than those boosted, CDC reports</strong> - Real-world data shows booster doses are standing up to omicron. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1827676">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Two cannabinoids have opposing effects on SARS-CoV-2 in culture</strong> - In early tests, CBD inhibits the virus, but THC blocks this effect. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1827654">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>23andme is a fake, rip-off scam website.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
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The results of my ancestry came back 85% German and 10% Bavarian/Eastern European, but I know <em>FOR A FACT</em> that my grandparents came to the USA from <strong>Argentina!</strong>
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</p>
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</div>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/KeckyOK"> /u/KeckyOK </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/s9qezk/23andme_is_a_fake_ripoff_scam_website/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/s9qezk/23andme_is_a_fake_ripoff_scam_website/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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<li><strong>A cop sees an old woman carrying two large sacks. One of the sacks has a hole and is leaking 20 dollar bills.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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The cop asks the woman, “Where did an old lady like you get all of that money?”
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She replies, “Well, there’s a golf course behind my house and when golfers need to go to the bathroom, they stick their penis through a hole in my fence and pee into my yard. It became a problem because it kills the flowers.”
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</p>
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The cop asks, “So what did you do about it?”
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The old lady says, “I get my hedge clippers and I wait behind the fence. When a golfer sticks his penis through the fence, I grab ahold of it and shout GIVE ME $20 OR IT COMES CLEAN OFF!”
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“That seems fair enough,” the cop says, “so what’s in the other sack?”
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The old lady replies with, “Not everyone pays…”
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</p>
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Me getting all these upvotes: <a href="https://media.tenor.com/images/e32a0bcd1ee692f13f9fcad63f4f6b62/tenor.gif?ctx=share">https://media.tenor.com/images/e32a0bcd1ee692f13f9fcad63f4f6b62/tenor.gif?ctx=share</a>
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/JingaMikage"> /u/JingaMikage </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/s9m1vn/a_cop_sees_an_old_woman_carrying_two_large_sacks/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/s9m1vn/a_cop_sees_an_old_woman_carrying_two_large_sacks/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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<li><strong>How many narcissists does it take to screw in a lightbulb?</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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None! They use gaslighting!
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/PolyMath3301"> /u/PolyMath3301 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/s9mn05/how_many_narcissists_does_it_take_to_screw_in_a/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/s9mn05/how_many_narcissists_does_it_take_to_screw_in_a/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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<li><strong>My wife was in the kitchen wearing only the t-shirt she slept in…</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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… preparing our usual soft-boiled eggs and toast for breakfast.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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As I walked in, almost awake, she turned to me and said softly, “You’ve got to make love to me right now! Right here!”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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My eyes lit up and I thought, “I am either still dreaming or this is going to be my lucky day!”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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Not wanting to loose the moment, I embraced her and then gave it my all; right there on the kitchen table.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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Afterwards she said, “Thanks” and returned to the stove, Her T-shirt still around her neck.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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Happy, but still a little puzzled, I asked, “What was that all about?”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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She explained, “The egg timer’s broken”
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</p>
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</div>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/noobmaster69_is_hela"> /u/noobmaster69_is_hela </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/s9amnf/my_wife_was_in_the_kitchen_wearing_only_the/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/s9amnf/my_wife_was_in_the_kitchen_wearing_only_the/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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<li><strong>I’m sitting here thinking about leaving my husband. He hasn’t been intimate with me since our son died. I would leave right now,</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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But the ambulance is still in the drive way blocking my car.
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- SC_ON -->
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Jussi_Wade_1755"> /u/Jussi_Wade_1755 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/s9xqn7/im_sitting_here_thinking_about_leaving_my_husband/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/s9xqn7/im_sitting_here_thinking_about_leaving_my_husband/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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</ul>
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