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657 lines
63 KiB
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<meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, user-scalable=yes" name="viewport"/>
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<title>23 September, 2022</title>
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<title>Daily-Dose</title><meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" name="viewport"/><link href="styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><link href="../styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><style>*{overflow-x:hidden;}</style><link href="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.css" rel="stylesheet"/><script src="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.js"></script></head>
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<body>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Breaking Down New York’s Long-Awaited Fraud Lawsuit Against Donald Trump</strong> - Letitia James, the New York attorney general, claims that the Trump Organization illegally obtained hundreds of millions of dollars by systematically exaggerating the value of its properties. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/breaking-down-new-yorks-long-awaited-fraud-lawsuit-against-donald-trump">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Why Ron DeSantis Thinks Weaponizing Asylum Seekers Is a Winning Strategy</strong> - The Florida Governor’s political stunt rests on the cynical assumption that no one actually wants to offer refuge to people fleeing adversity. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/why-ron-desantis-thinks-weaponizing-asylum-seekers-is-a-winning-strategy">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Putin Expands His War as Biden Tries to Rally the U.N.</strong> - The world body has proved weak and dysfunctional in solving existential crises. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/putin-expands-his-war-as-biden-tries-to-rally-the-un">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>What Putin’s Mobilization Means for the War in Ukraine</strong> - The Kremlin announced a draft to dramatically increase its fighting force. Will the Russian public fight back? - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/what-putins-mobilization-means-for-the-war-in-ukraine">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The “Cynical, Disgusting” Migrant Flights to Martha’s Vineyard</strong> - What a political stunt by Ron DeSantis involving vulnerable people tells us about the current politics of U.S. immigration policy. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/politics-and-more/the-cynical-disgusting-migrant-flights-to-marthas-vineyard">link</a></p></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>How a 100-year-old miscalculation drained the Colorado River</strong> -
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<figure>
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/o8rE7f-K9P24IiGxvJam1IJy8lQ=/167x0:2834x2000/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71405090/AP22230767902633.0.jpg"/>
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<figcaption>
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The Colorado River at Horseshoe Bend in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area on June 8, near Page, Arizona. | Brittany Peterson/AP
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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An epic drought in the West is drying up the river. But that’s only part of the story.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="sywvuN">
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By now, you may have heard that the <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23308281/colorado-river-western-drought-satellite-hoover-dam-mead-powell">Colorado River is drying up</a>.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="o5cBOZ">
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The river’s flow is down by <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/news/colorado-river-flow-dwindles-warming-driven-loss-reflective-snow-energizes-evaporation">about 20 percent</a>, compared to the 1900s, and the two largest reservoirs it feeds are <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23308281/colorado-river-western-drought-satellite-hoover-dam-mead-powell">less than a third full</a>. The water in Lake Mead, the nation’s biggest reservoir, has dropped <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/22/climate/lake-mead-level-pictures.html">more than 150 feet</a> in the last two decades, leaving little water for the more than 40 million people who depend on the river.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WpTuCn">
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Part of the reason why the Colorado Riving is shrinking is the dwindling amount of snow and rain. The West is in its 23rd year of drought, which <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01290-z.epdf?sharing_token=bHGVxxMEweE96FAkArykiNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0OkweMbawmVFM1UCLmLxuyBpGKtFJa1_BxzJ7UFQSQZ6HoKWiVpxr-PXXpBdXS0aLJYrb-T2bjp5Y_Cku7vSenHblt81qi9olu_1s3zBCVWxhOj7h1yPvukczp8OW-fMInax-64I97Ydyz8yOYptdpaLuUfk5JMXGjlcK0iPR_bAbZezMr6HR87nF1y-C5ApXrPDDheDZbRuS7KnTcwWcPIrhf0J4AhCj_Wfnpjfu1E0ujltY1nqoCqr6ovxRFc86zrzprG3-zhDWh_NXaAiFFs&tracking_referrer=www.npr.org">research</a> suggests could be the driest period in the last 1,200 years, made worse by climate change.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="r3psBr">
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Then there is the sheer number of cities and farms that are sucking down water. About three-quarters of all water that humans consume from the Colorado goes toward irrigating farms, which, among other things, supply nearly <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23310631/colorado-river-drought-arizona-california-farms">all of the nation’s winter veggies</a>.
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</p>
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<div class="c-float-right">
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<div id="lxidU7">
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zQgDwo">
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But a key reason why the Colorado River is running out of water has more to do with math than anything — bad math.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="15VMNG">
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One hundred years ago, government officials divvied up water in the Colorado River among the seven states that rely on it including Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. The agreement, known as the Colorado River Compact, was based on one critically important number: the total amount of water that the Colorado River can supply yearly.
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</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
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<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rFXKsuvSrAlOBCZry2b65QI6TJQ=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24045581/AP22207680455731.jpg"/> <cite>John Locher/AP</cite>
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<figcaption>
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A boat revealed by falling water levels in Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir.
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="82TV05">
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Ignoring the best science of the time, officials claimed the river could provide about 20 million acre-feet per year (an acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill an acre with one foot of water), according to the 2021 book <a href="https://bookshop.org/books/science-be-dammed-how-ignoring-inconvenient-science-drained-the-colorado-river/9780816543236"><em>Science Be Dammed: How Ignoring Inconvenient Science Drained the Colorado Rive</em>r</a>. That number was way too high, the authors write, meaning that officials promised states water that simply didn’t exist.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aeWNb4">
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<em>“</em>They had conjured up a larger Colorado River than nature could actually provide,” wrote authors Eric Kuhn, a retired water official, and John Fleck, a writer and former director of the University of New Mexico’s Water Resources Program. “The twenty-first century’s problems on the river are the inevitable result of critical decisions made by water managers and politicians who ignored the science available at the time.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="w8Qj46">
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I spoke to co-author John Fleck about how officials in the past miscalculated so badly, and where we go now. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
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</p>
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<h3 id="N1so0x">
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How much water is left in the Colorado River?
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</h3>
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<h4 id="l4WE66">
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Benji Jones
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kw8Kib">
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For anyone not following what’s happening with the Colorado River, catch us up: How much water has the river lost and how close is it to drying out?
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</p>
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<h4 id="trQW2k">
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John Fleck
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0NGSOj">
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Twenty years ago, the big reservoirs that hold most of the river’s water were close to full. But two decades of drought, amplified by climate change — combined with the fact that we’re continuing to use a whole lot of water — have <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23308281/colorado-river-western-drought-satellite-hoover-dam-mead-powell">largely emptied</a> the reservoirs.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="czjam9">
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We’ve reached the point where the reservoirs are no less than a third full in terms of the available water supply that we might use. We’re at the danger point.
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</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
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<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HkG_4ZavjlNMOUy252JO9-NJ7k0=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24045586/GettyImages_1242700699.jpg"/> <cite>Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</cite>
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<figcaption>
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The shores of Lake Mead in Nevada on August 24.
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<h4 id="H3GGRH">
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Benji Jones
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="L678iA">
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You’re talking about the reservoirs Lake Powell and Lake Mead?
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</p>
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<h4 id="yWIlQJ">
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John Fleck
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gq8uU1">
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There’s also a cluster of other reservoirs that help support the operation. But yes, it’s mainly Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the two biggest reservoirs in the nation. They have the ability to store five times the river’s annual flow, which we burned through in the last 20 years.
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</p>
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<h4 id="VDCZa5">
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Benji Jones
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qoyNZi">
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Are there parts of the river that are totally dry, where you could see, say, cracked earth?
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</p>
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<h4 id="u4FUo0">
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John Fleck
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fgAL7T">
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Yes, and this was a stunning revelation for me. The very bottom of the river, where it leaves the United States and enters Mexico, used to be this vast delta — wild and wet and full of beavers and marshes and estuaries. But the river now stops at a place called Morelos Dam, on the US-Mexico border.
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</p>
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<div class="c-float-left">
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<figure class="e-image">
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<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EDbJJlF5J5am8xlVWsmk94UxHOY=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24045540/John_Fleck.jpg"/> <cite>Karl Flessa</cite>
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<figcaption>
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John Fleck, writer-in-residence at the University of New Mexico’s Utton Center and co-author of the 2021 book <em>Science Be Dammed: How Ignoring Inconvenient Science Drained the Colorado River.</em>
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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</div>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="P4fcrs">
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Downstream from the dam there’s a little trickle of water that’s maybe 10 to 15 feet wide, and then it peters out into the sand. Then you just have dry riverbed. That’s because we’ve taken all the water out of the river upstream to use in our cities and farms.
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</p>
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<h4 id="pg3hLb">
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Benji Jones
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aSSmHx">
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The Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that manages water in the US, has announced cuts related to the level of water in the reservoirs, known as Tier 1 and 2 shortages. How does that work?
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</p>
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<h4 id="DNl33s">
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John Fleck
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iY0kGn">
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Over the last 15 years, river managers have faced a looming problem: We’ve been taking more water out of the river than it can provide. So they negotiated a series of agreements that say if, for example, Lake Mead drops to a certain level, there’ll be cutbacks. If it drops even more, the cutbacks will get bigger.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zyK9ax">
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Those cutbacks are now kicking in. But what we’ve since realized is that the cutbacks weren’t made soon enough and they weren’t deep enough, so the bottom is dropping out.
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</p>
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<h3 id="kG7RXd">
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Bad math and ignoring science helped dry the river out
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</h3>
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<h4 id="j7lstc">
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Benji Jones
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="KImwQH">
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How did we get here? There’s climate change and drought. But you write about some historical oversights. What happened?
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</p>
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<h4 id="rOgfWe">
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John Fleck
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zDzvtW">
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In the early 20th century, the US Geological Survey sent out this guy named Eugene Clyde LaRue to try and measure the Colorado River. LaRue started to see that, beyond the time horizon that we’d been measuring the river so far [a couple of recent decades], there were some really big droughts. He concluded in a 1916 report that the river is subject to big droughts on timescales of 10-to-20 to 50-to-100 years. It doesn’t just stay wet.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="VJSRUZ">
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The negotiators of the Colorado River Compact — the foundational document for figuring out how to divide up the river and decide who gets what — needed this information. They needed science. But they came together to figure this out without LaRue. They sidelined him. They ignored his science that said there’s been big droughts.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1Ochtf">
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Instead, the negotiators looked at a much more recent period [of time] that had been extraordinarily and unusually wet. They said the river’s got plenty of water to build all these farms and to build all these cities. They just ignored the science because it was inconvenient.
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</p>
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<h4 id="XAqeLu">
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Benji Jones
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9dVSBW">
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Why was it so inconvenient to be realistic about the amount of water in the river?
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</p>
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<h4 id="Mp8aR2">
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John Fleck
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5Et5ul">
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The promise of a lot of water made the political deal-making easier. You could divide up the river and say to each of the seven states: “You want to irrigate a whole bunch of acres? Plenty for you. You want to pump a bunch of water across the desert of California? Plenty for you.” You didn’t have to have hard conversations about what life under limitation was going to be like.
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</p>
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<h4 id="2ak1lF">
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Benji Jones
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</h4>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="J0zWjd">
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How big was the difference between what LaRue measured and what the negotiators ultimately used to divvy up the river’s water in the 1922 Colorado River Compact?
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</p>
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|||
|
|
<h4 id="3lJ2IS">
|
|||
|
|
John Fleck
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Qk0w6U">
|
|||
|
|
Negotiators believed — and negotiated a deal that said — there was as much as 20 million acre-feet flowing from the river each year. LaRue’s estimate was closer to 15 million. Today, we know it’s 12 million. But that’s the climate change world. It was a big gap.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="c-float-right">
|
|||
|
|
<aside id="NwncGp">
|
|||
|
|
<q>“They were told that there was enough water. That turns out to have been bogus.”</q>
|
|||
|
|
</aside>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="s4l3n5">
|
|||
|
|
Benji Jones
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MUb33m">
|
|||
|
|
Is that gap ultimately why we’re in this position today? Basically, 100 years ago, regulators over-allocated water of the Colorado River, based on faulty numbers?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="r2s0l8">
|
|||
|
|
John Fleck
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3DBmDc">
|
|||
|
|
Yes. You have communities across the West who made good-faith decisions to build cities, farms, canals, and dams based on what they thought was a promise of water. They were told that there was enough water. That turns out to have been bogus.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9lpJbZ">
|
|||
|
|
Then, during the drought of the 1930s, and during the drought of the 1950s, it became clear that LaRue had been right [about how much less water there is]. People who are still trying to insist on their “paper” water allocations [based on the compact] are making the same mistake that the compact negotiators made 100 years ago.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="2i7c2I">
|
|||
|
|
Cities have learned to use less water — but there’s still not enough
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="Jjw6at">
|
|||
|
|
Benji Jones
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wXoWea">
|
|||
|
|
Are regulators now taking into account what science says about the river?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="ALKhBs">
|
|||
|
|
John Fleck
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TiTRHw">
|
|||
|
|
I would like to just say yes. There’s a whole bunch of people in the system who understand the importance of using the best available science. My favorite example of this is Las Vegas, Nevada, and the Southern Nevada Water Authority, which really has been taking climate change seriously.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jFvw5a">
|
|||
|
|
The difficulty is at the political interface. It is difficult for a hypothetical governor to go before their voters and provide them with bad news about water. What a governor really needs to say is: “We have a lot less water, we have to change.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MsQhbG">
|
|||
|
|
[The 100-year-old Colorado River Compact, wrong numbers and all, is still the primary agreement upon which management of the Colorado River is based.]
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/s00XPQqvmSozs3F9WgNdtSlWDTo=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24045620/GettyImages_1243385423.jpg"/> <cite>Brian van der Brug/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
A field of alfalfa in Calexico, California, which gets its water from the Colorado River, on January 27, 2022.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="wYTN8A">
|
|||
|
|
Benji Jones
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nxiIkj">
|
|||
|
|
How about communities and cities along the river? Are users getting realistic about how much water they can consume?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="p7BVkl">
|
|||
|
|
John Fleck
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="k4OEtt">
|
|||
|
|
Different communities approach risk differently.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="L36ifL">
|
|||
|
|
Big cities tend to be the most realistic. It’s hard to find a major city in the West that has not gone to enormous lengths to invest in the necessary conservation programs. Almost every major metropolitan area that depends on the river’s water is seeing their total water use go down, even as their populations rise.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9giIv8">
|
|||
|
|
Agricultural communities face a harder time because, really, the only thing you can do to use less water is to farm less. So you’re asking them to give up both a portion of their economic livelihood and also their cultural identity as farmers.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iBdE7l">
|
|||
|
|
Even though most communities can adapt to use less, they’re afraid they can’t. That fear leads to this winner-take-all, fight-over-water approach rather than collaboration. That’s why we have not been able to reduce our use fast enough to halt the decline of reservoirs.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="tXJZjY">
|
|||
|
|
Benji Jones
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5qYyRu">
|
|||
|
|
Is demand for water increasing? I’ve always thought that was a problem, too.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="LLoolC">
|
|||
|
|
John Fleck
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1v8fGR">
|
|||
|
|
It’s actually not. Water use is going down. The upper part of the Colorado River Basin is, on paper, entitled to 7.5 million acre-feet a year. That was always an unrealistically large number. After building out all our projects by the late 1980s, the water use there has been relatively stable at around 4 million [acre-feet per year], though it fluctuates wildly year to year.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="b0mZM2">
|
|||
|
|
If you look at the lower Colorado River Basin, water use peaked in 2002, and has been steadily declining. There’s been substantial reductions in a couple of the major agricultural areas. The Imperial Irrigation District of California is the largest farm district and their use has dropped dramatically. Urban use has also been going down. We’ve seen water use decoupled from population growth.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="lv0SLf">
|
|||
|
|
Who loses when the water runs out
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="RpUWEd">
|
|||
|
|
Benji Jones
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OIDzSJ">
|
|||
|
|
Earlier this summer, the Bureau of Reclamation asked the seven states that depend on the river to cut an <em>additional </em><a href="https://www.usbr.gov/ColoradoRiverBasin/">2-4 million acre-feet per year</a>. How much water is that and how disruptive will it be?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="lpTHgj">
|
|||
|
|
John Fleck
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FdIgYv">
|
|||
|
|
That’s between one-sixth and one-third of the average annual flow of the Colorado River right now. It’s a lot of water.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="h25c3U">
|
|||
|
|
What we mean when we say “the flow of the river” depends on which period of time you’re looking at, because it’s constantly varying. When I say, “one-sixth to one-third,” that’s of the river’s flow in the 21st century, when we’ve been experiencing drought and climate change.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fIMJFc">
|
|||
|
|
There’s going to be a really big disruption, and it’s going to happen one of two ways. Districts and states could figure out now how to come up with those 2-4 million acre-feet, voluntarily, working from the bottom up. Or the disruption is going to come within a year — or two or three — when the reservoirs are just freaking empty. Those are the two options.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="msAP1e">
|
|||
|
|
The lovely third option is we have a few years of monstrous snowpack [melting snow in the spring feeds the river]. I’m not beyond hoping for that third option.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="UrIoZj">
|
|||
|
|
Benji Jones
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="cV09Hz">
|
|||
|
|
Who will suffer the most as cuts continue?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="E9p8uB">
|
|||
|
|
John Fleck
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="cMoYYE">
|
|||
|
|
The most important set of users is tribal communities who were promised water by the nation when we were busy stealing their land. We haven’t given it to them yet. Even the language I use is problematic. It’s not about giving them water that’s ours but acknowledging that this water was theirs to begin with.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gEMTEf">
|
|||
|
|
There are tribes who don’t have their water allocations — or who have water allocations but not the federal largess to use it in the same way as all the Anglo communities, like my own. It’s a significant issue across large parts of the basin.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eKXJwb">
|
|||
|
|
Then there’s the environment. Long ago, we decided that we didn’t care about the environment, but now, as a society, our values are shifting. So figuring out how to claw back some of that water for the environment is one of the really big challenges.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="mHV95l">
|
|||
|
|
Benji Jones
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WIO1L6">
|
|||
|
|
What is your most brilliant solution for solving this water shortage?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="cUnrNS">
|
|||
|
|
John Fleck
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eCBWgt">
|
|||
|
|
I always punt on this question. It doesn’t matter what I think and it doesn’t matter what I say. For a solution to be effective, it has to emerge from the people who are using water themselves. What I can do is make clear the scope and the scale of the problem. You can’t impose solutions on people. It just doesn’t work.
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>How the polls might be wrong (again) this year</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="An illustration of an elephant standing in front of stylized line charts." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rb1ZWn2Tega3X4v62-I8KFgkRzI=/225x0:1576x1013/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71404896/polling_bias_board_1_untoned.0.jpg"/>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Christina Animashaun/Vox; Getty Images
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Polling has looked surprisingly good for Democrats. Are they being set up for disappointment again?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="C0Htub">
|
|||
|
|
It just seems to keep on happening — Democrats get their hopes up from rosy-looking polls, but they get a rude awakening when votes are tallied on election night.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nd328h">
|
|||
|
|
In 2016, Trump’s win shocked the world. In 2020, a seeming Democratic romp turned into a nail-biter. And now, as the 2022 midterms are drawing nearer, polls show Democrats performing <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/9/14/23339467/midterm-elections-democrats-polls-dobbs">surprisingly decently</a> — pointing toward a close election rather than the long-expected GOP wave.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lXHgKQ">
|
|||
|
|
Unless, of course, the polls are just underestimating Republicans again.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="c-float-right">
|
|||
|
|
<div id="FYNrcb">
|
|||
|
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="EmQYYT">
|
|||
|
|
And lately, there’s been a debate among election analysts, including the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/upshot/polling-midterms-warning.html">New York Times’s Nate Cohn</a> and <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-polls-overestimate-democrats-again/">FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver</a>, about whether that’s exactly what we should expect this time.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="apBLZC">
|
|||
|
|
It has always been a good idea to treat polls, poll averages, and election forecasts with some healthy skepticism. They’re all good at getting us in the neighborhood of the outcome, most of the time. But in any given cycle polls <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-polls-overestimate-democrats-again/">are frequently off</a> by a few points on average, and they can miss by much more in individual races while being on target in others.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ZfJbrl">
|
|||
|
|
So sure, polls can be wrong. The debate here is over a different question: Have polls so persistently underestimated Republican candidates of late that it’s simple common sense to suspect it’s happening again?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Jqevd0">
|
|||
|
|
Or is the recent polling error tougher to generalize about, meaning that we should be more hesitant to suspect a bias against the GOP, and that Democrats maybe shouldn’t feel so anxious?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BX59ho">
|
|||
|
|
My own view is that it makes all the sense in the world to be deeply skeptical of polls showing big Democratic leads in states like Wisconsin and Ohio, where polls have consistently greatly overestimated Democrats across several election cycles. But the picture is less clear in other states, where polling error hasn’t been so clear or consistent. I wouldn’t blindly “trust” those polls, but I wouldn’t assume they’re likely wrong, either.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="JlTLv4">
|
|||
|
|
What was wrong with the polls?
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="30bY94">
|
|||
|
|
The last cycle in which Democrats really felt the polls didn’t set them up for disappointment was 2012. Polls that year did fluctuate somewhat, but they usually showed President Obama as the favorite to win reelection, and forecast models based on those polls <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/10/30/the-nate-silver-backlash/">did the same</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GN3PCx">
|
|||
|
|
There was, however, a dissenter —<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unskewed-polling-dean-chambers-poll-bias-skewed-obama-romney-2012-9"> Dean Chambers</a>, founder of the website “Unskewed Polls.” Chambers, a conservative, argued that most pollsters were systematically undercounting Republican voters. So he re-weighted their results to reflect the more-Romney-leaning electorate he expected — “unskewing them.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="T6xeHs">
|
|||
|
|
Much mockery from liberals about this rather crude methodology ensued, and when the results of the election came in, Chambers got egg on his face — Obama and Democrats actually did somewhat better than the polls had showed.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pNLyFK">
|
|||
|
|
Here’s the funny part: In every election cycle since then, Chambers would have had a point.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4XAf84cpcBB4pyi535GwpuIYz_Y=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24045006/IHnR0_most_democratic_candidates_underperformed_polling_in_competitive_senate_races_from_2014_2020.png"/> <cite>Andrew Prokop / Vox</cite>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="HJwRj2">
|
|||
|
|
First came the 2014 midterms, a GOP wave year. The final Senate polls correctly indicated a Republican takeover, but they understated the size of GOP victories in <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/11/5/7159837/polling-mistakes-election-2014">almost every competitive race</a>, by nearly 6 points on average. National House polling <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html">showed</a> a similar discrepancy.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oIrlDj">
|
|||
|
|
In 2016, it happened again. National presidential and House polls were fairly close to the results, but in most presidential swing states, polls <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-polls-overestimate-democrats-again/">underestimated Trump</a>. Polls also underestimated GOP Senate candidates in competitive contests by about 3 points on average.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ibcwJ0">
|
|||
|
|
In the 2018 midterms, then, there was another discrepancy between national House polling (which was fairly <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html">close to accurate</a>) and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/21/upshot/polls-2018-midterms-accuracy.html">competitive Senate state polling</a> (where Republicans were underestimated by 2.5 points on average).
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qHOhzQ">
|
|||
|
|
And in 2020, polls <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020-poll-errors/2021/07/18/8d6a9838-e7df-11eb-ba5d-55d3b5ffcaf1_story.html">had their worst performance in decades</a>, because they significantly overestimated Democrats’ margins at nearly every level — presidential popular vote, presidential swing states, Senate swing states, and the House — by an average of nearly 5 points.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Mn9Ni4">
|
|||
|
|
So, over the last four cycles, national polls have twice been reasonably accurate and twice underestimated Republicans. But relevant for our purposes this year, polls of competitive Senate races underestimated Republicans in all four election cycles. (And, of course, presidential swing state polls underestimated Trump twice, though that’s more relevant for 2024.)
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="wU3qvy">
|
|||
|
|
Why were the polls off?
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XLVHll">
|
|||
|
|
A polling error of about 3 points on average is <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/10/19/17995454/elections-2018-polls-predictions-democrats">actually pretty normal</a>. All polling is an inexact science attempting to model the opinion of a large population based on a sample of a small part of that population. Things could go awry in sampling (if certain voters are more difficult for the pollster to reach), or in weighting (as pollsters try to ensure their sample is representative of the electorate, they may make incorrect assumptions about rates at which demographics are likely to turn out). Additionally, undecided voters making up their minds at the very last minute break could disproportionately to one candidate or side. These things happen!
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4DhLnh">
|
|||
|
|
But if polls are consistently erring, over multiple cycles, in the same partisan direction, and often in the same states or regions, that may indicate a fundamental problem.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wUkiny">
|
|||
|
|
Part of the recent debate among election analysts is about whether that has actually happened — that is, in how we should interpret those last few cycles of poll results. Has there been a consistent overestimation of Democrats — meaning, a problem of pollsters reaching Trump-supporting Republicans? Or has it been a more mixed set of results from which people are over-reading patterns?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="w1HEC1">
|
|||
|
|
If you look at Senate polling of competitive contests from 2014 to 2020, and swing state presidential polling in 2016 and 2020, the pattern of bias seems quite plain: Polling underestimated Republicans far more often than Democrats in these contests, which stretch across several cycles at this point. Often, these errors were most pronounced in certain states or regions, such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/upshot/polling-midterms-warning.html">Rust Belt states</a> or very red states. So Cohn <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/upshot/polling-midterms-warning.html">sees</a> “warning signs” that recent polls may be overestimating Democrats in those same states, an “artifact of persistent and unaddressed biases in survey research.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="URXx9G">
|
|||
|
|
Silver takes a broader view, incorporating polling nationally, of governor’s races, and of off-year and special elections into his analysis, and concludes that the picture looks more mixed. He <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-polls-overestimate-democrats-again/">argues</a> that polls have either been pretty close or even underestimated Democrats in various elections in 2017, 2021, and 2022 (particularly after the <em>Dobbs</em> decision). He views 2018 in particular as a mixed bag, not demonstrating a “systematic Democratic bias.” And he posits that perhaps “Republicans benefit from higher turnout only when Trump himself is on the ballot,” meaning that 2016 and 2020 might be the wrong elections to focus on when thinking about this year.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="YthY2k">
|
|||
|
|
A closer look at 2018
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="cfMPfD">
|
|||
|
|
I have a different interpretation of polls’ performance in 2018 than Silver, though. According to <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-polls-overestimate-democrats-again/">his numbers</a>, polling averages underestimated Democrats by about 1 point on average in the House and in governor’s races, and there was no partisan bias in Senate polls on average that year.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Eqqt7F">
|
|||
|
|
But there’s a catch: The Senate map that year had an unusually large amount of contests in solidly blue states, none of which proved to be competitive. Democrats outperformed polls in nearly all of those contests.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="R8iVx9">
|
|||
|
|
Yet if we look at 2018’s actually competitive races — which that year were in purple and red states — most Democratic candidates underperformed their polls, and often by quite a lot.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5qxei69rhlPzxAhtSEfKWcIG6Cw=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24045210/neIRI_most_2018_senate_democrats_in_competitive_races_underperformed_polling.png"/>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="75BP4g">
|
|||
|
|
The final margin was more than 3 points more unfavorable to the Democrat than FiveThirtyEight’s final polling averages in Florida, West Virginia, Michigan, Ohio, Tennessee, Missouri, and Indiana. There was only one competitive state — Nevada — in which the Democrat outperformed polls by more than 3 points.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="29Lq6w">
|
|||
|
|
So, for the purposes of someone trying to figure out which way the Senate would tip, the polls did functionally underestimate Republicans in 2018 too.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OWHaCE">
|
|||
|
|
Here’s another caveat, though: 2022’s competitive Senate map does not look like 2018’s. That year, Democrats were defending 10 seats in states Trump won two years prior, including many deep red states (including North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri, where some of the biggest polling errors were). 2014’s competitive map, another year where the polls significantly underestimated the GOP, was similarly red. But in 2022, Democrats’ top seats to defend or pick up are in pure purple states that Biden won narrowly: Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uKuiPI">
|
|||
|
|
The trick about trying to draw lessons from history is that nothing will ever be identical. Each situation is new and will have similarities and differences to things that happened in the past. A comparison necessitates choosing certain past events to examine, while omitting others. And the more past events you look at, the more conflicting evidence you’ll find.
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>What’s behind House Democrats’ sudden compromise on policing</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cvJJrioZhuXb6nFd8risky7dnOU=/530x0:5241x3533/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71403679/1243417809.0.jpg"/>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Reps. Hakeem Jeffries, D-NY, and Josh Gottheimer, D-NJ, walk together between votes on Capitol Hill on July 20, 2022, in Washington, DC. | Jabin Botsford/Washington Post/Getty Images
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
House Democrats used a recent vote to show voters they are for the police.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5NkP8F">
|
|||
|
|
On Thursday, House Democrats passed <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/22/politics/house-vote-police-funding-bills/index.html">a package of bills</a> intended to blunt <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/20/democrats-crime-guns-ads-00057667">the GOP broadsides they’ve faced on crime,</a> seeking to dispel any perceptions that they want to <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/6/26/21303849/what-defund-the-police-really-means">“defund the police”</a> amid <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/391610/worry-crime-highest-level-2016.aspx">growing worries about public safety.</a>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="EAsM3j">
|
|||
|
|
Democrats tried to strike a delicate balance with this package: While it includes more grant money for police, it also contains bills that would invest in reform efforts activists favor such as <a href="https://www.vox.com/21351442/patrick-sharkey-uneasy-peace-abolish-defund-the-police-violence-cities">community-based violence interventions</a> and first responders who are trained specifically to address <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/7/1/20677523/mental-health-police-cahoots-oregon-oakland-sweden">mental health crises</a>. By tackling both, they hope to show their commitment to law enforcement while also acknowledging progressive concerns about the need for alternatives and accountability.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="10OccK">
|
|||
|
|
“There’s a lot in there, it’s not just more funding for police,” says Insha Rahman, a vice president of advocacy and partnerships at the Vera Institute of Justice.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="c-float-right">
|
|||
|
|
<div id="W0MdZZ">
|
|||
|
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oWb303">
|
|||
|
|
Still, the measure marks <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/13/dems-crime-law-and-order-politics-00024875">Democrats’ latest retreat</a> from their more aggressive critiques of police violence in recent years, a reason several progressives balked at advancing the package, which seeks to push back against Republican attacks. As certain <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/22/upshot/murder-rise-2020.html">crimes like homicides</a> have increased in 2020 and 2021, Republicans have suggested that Democrats’ support for police reforms was behind the uptick. House Democrats’ legislation — which is a byproduct of negotiations between centrist lawmakers like Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), progressives including Reps. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) and Ilhan Omar (D-MN), and Congressional Black Caucus leaders including Chair Joyce Beatty (D-OH) — is the latest attempt to neutralize these claims.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="76SzNX">
|
|||
|
|
For now, the bills are predominately a messaging effort and unlikely to be taken up by the Senate, where passing legislation would require 10 Republicans to sign on. Although one of the bills in the package, the Invest to Protect Act from Gottheimer, has had strong Senate support, it’s uncertain whether the upper chamber will take it up on its own given everything else still on its docket. Regardless, Democrats argue the bills are a significant statement that show where they stand going into the elections, and that could broaden their voter appeal.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FrPndD">
|
|||
|
|
“I think there’s been a lot of give on both sides,” Beatty told Vox.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="MOawoq">
|
|||
|
|
What the public safety deal contains
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XozTKF">
|
|||
|
|
The package contains four bills that boost investment in policing and other public safety interventions. They are:
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li id="1c2vZi">
|
|||
|
|
<a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/6448#:~:text=Introduced%20in%20House%20(01%2F20%2F2022)&text=This%20bill%20directs%20the%20Office,than%20200%20law%20enforcement%20officers."><strong>Invest to Protect Act:</strong></a><strong> </strong>Sponsored by Gottheimer, this legislation would enable the Justice Department to award $250 million in federal grants to police departments with 125 officers or fewer over the next five years.
|
|||
|
|
</li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="m0xjg5">
|
|||
|
|
According to a statement from Jayapal and Omar, progressives were able to secure a few concessions, including the targeting of these funds to smaller police departments, the use of the money for de-escalation training, and the use of the funds for data collection on police departments. Progressives hoped these changes would ensure new spending goes to departments lacking the personnel to complete basic tasks, reduce police brutality incidents, and allow Congress to better assess individual departments’ efficacy.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="8sUSwn">
|
|||
|
|
This bill passed 360-64.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li id="gG1WC5">
|
|||
|
|
<a href="https://horsford.house.gov/media/press-releases/horsford-booker-blunt-rochester-reintroduce-groundbreaking-legislation-to-break-the-cycle-of-community-violence#:~:text=The%20Break%20the%20Cycle%20of,to%20interrupt%20cycles%20of%20violence."><strong>Break the Cycle of Violence Act:</strong></a><strong> </strong>Sponsored by Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV), the legislation would require the Department of Health and Human Services to award $5 billion in federal grants for community-based violence intervention programs over eight years.
|
|||
|
|
</li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MYkfiI">
|
|||
|
|
This bill passed 220-207.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li id="mjcnM8">
|
|||
|
|
<a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5768"><strong>VICTIM Act:</strong></a><strong> </strong>Sponsored by Rep. Val Demings (D-FL), this bill would set up a new DOJ-run grant program that provides funding for detectives to investigate homicides and violent crimes as well as resources for personnel to support victims in these cases. Currently, a high proportion of these crimes go unsolved, an issue this bill attempts to address.
|
|||
|
|
</li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iROBel">
|
|||
|
|
This bill passed 250-178.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li id="VmteJn">
|
|||
|
|
<a href="https://porter.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=297"><strong>Mental Health Justice Act</strong></a><strong>:</strong> Sponsored by Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), this legislation would establish a DOJ-run grant program that’s dedicated to providing funding for hiring and training of mental health first responder units who would address mental health crises in lieu of police.
|
|||
|
|
</li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QA40NO">
|
|||
|
|
This bill passed 223-206.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Ml4hlD">
|
|||
|
|
Three of the four bills have strong consensus support across the caucus, while the Invest to Protect Act has garnered progressive pushback due to the funding it provides law enforcement. Gottheimer’s bill “would add nearly a quarter billion dollars in police funding over the next 5 years without addressing the crisis of police brutality,” Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO), a proponent of criminal justice reform, said in a statement arguing that the legislation should be decoupled from the rest of the package.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="99KRgG">
|
|||
|
|
Beatty acknowledged that many activists may not support the bill, but noted that their input was vital to strengthening the protections in the legislation. “I’ve talked to the activists and said I’m not asking them to endorse it because they have a role: to be activists,” she said. “But for their persistence, we wouldn’t have had as many guardrails.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="k5sRzT">
|
|||
|
|
The shortcomings of this public safety package
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jFkOSW">
|
|||
|
|
The House’s vote on public safety bills comes after past talks on police reform imploded, and as <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/13/dems-crime-law-and-order-politics-00024875">Democrats have begun to shift</a> away from many members’ stronger condemnations of policing in 2020.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="DLkqwh">
|
|||
|
|
Previously, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/3/3/22295856/george-floyd-justice-in-policing-act-2021-passed-house">Democrats’ Justice in Policing Act</a>, which would have limited the qualified immunity protections the police have, failed to advance in the Senate due to Republican opposition. Since then, members of the party have distanced themselves from a focus on reforms due to fears that rhetoric around “defunding the police” <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/14/democrats-suburbs-lets-fund-the-police-515966">hurt lawmakers in battleground districts in the last election</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mBW0Un">
|
|||
|
|
That’s led to the sorts of compromises that are evident in the latest package, which has disappointed many activists.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5X7SB7">
|
|||
|
|
“The policing bills on the table right now do nothing to address police accountability,” said Color of Change president Rashad Robinson in a statement. “Encouraging more ‘training’ without any real accountability measures is a fake solution that will not make our communities safer.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ErAdRJ">
|
|||
|
|
Some of the measures activists are calling for, such as policies that would divest federal funding from police, don’t yet have the congressional or executive branch support needed to become law. Their critiques about Democrats’ new bills are also backed up by research, which has found, for instance, that actions such as increased data collection have run up against <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/09/30/police-killings-unreported-government-data-lancet-study-finds/5915807001/">problems like underreporting</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Tn0Qx7">
|
|||
|
|
At this point, these incremental measures are likely the most House Democrats could do with the narrow margins they have and the tight timeline they face ahead of the elections. With less than two months to go until the midterms, this could well be their last chance to pass anything on the subject. For many moderates, doing so was important to send a message, even if it’s the wrong one for activists who’ve long supported the party.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="odbuIf">
|
|||
|
|
“Today, we will witness with our own eyes who actually wants to fund the police,” Rep. Demings, a former Orlando police chief and Democrats’ Senate candidate in Florida, said in a floor speech on Thursday.
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Historian and Willows impress</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Siege Perilous, Forseti and Dandi Satyagraha please</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Pride’s Angel and Vincent Van Gogh show out</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ashutosh has his sights trained on Olympic participation</strong> - Qualification for under-15 Nationals a first step in ultimate career quest</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Farewell to cricket: Indian women gear up for memorable Lord's dance for legendary Jhulan</strong> - Harmanpreet Kaur and her team would leave no stone unturned to make it a fitting farewell for one of the ‘poster girls’ of Indian cricket.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Kerala Vayosevana awards announced</strong> - Literary critic M. Leelavathy and singer P. Jayachandran have been selected for the award for lifetime contribution</p></li>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Centre spent ₹9,500 crore on railway projects in Telangana: Kishan Reddy</strong> - Railway coach overhauling project at Warangal soon</p></li>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Andhra Pradesh: BJP imposing taxes on people and granting concessions to corporates: Brinda Karat</strong> - The CPI(M) leader also accuses the saffron party of trying to drive a wedge between people of various faiths</p></li>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Andhra Pradesh: BJP will emerge as a strong force in Southern States, says Purandeswari</strong> - People have lost faith in regional parties, she says at meeting in Etcherla</p></li>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Bombay High Court allows Uddhav Thackeray faction of Shiv Sena to hold Dasara rally at Shivaji Park</strong> - The bench allowed the Thackeray faction to use the ground from October 2 to 6.</p></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
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<ul>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine war: Russia reveals exemptions as men flee call-up</strong> - IT workers, bankers and state media reporters will avoid Russia’s first draft since World War Two.</p></li>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>What Russia wants from the votes in occupied Ukraine</strong> - Russia is losing its war in Ukraine and now four regions are holding self-styled referendums.</p></li>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Silvio Berlusconi: Ex-PM defends Russian war on eve of Italian election</strong> - Italy’s former PM said Vladimir Putin wanted to replace the Kyiv government with “decent people”.</p></li>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine war: Crown prince crucial in Ukraine prisoner deal, Saudis say</strong> - Mohammed bin Salman was personally involved in a prisoner release, the Saudi foreign minister says.</p></li>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Child heard crying as mobilised Russian men leave to fight</strong> - A child can be heard crying ‘Daddy, goodbye’ in a video shared on Russian social media</p></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Rocket Report: SpaceX fires up seven Raptors; SpinLaunch raises big funding round</strong> - This is the first time the Rocket Report has used the word “yeeted” in its history. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1882587">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Impressions: Shovel Knight Dig is my new roguelite gaming addiction</strong> - The modern-retro goodness of <em>Shovel Knight</em> returns with a refreshing take on roguelites. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1883870">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The case of the murdered mummies: “virtual autopsy” reveals fatal injuries</strong> - One was struck on the head and stabbed; the other had massive cervical spine trauma. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1880352">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>USB-A adapter adds instant Wi-Fi 6E support to Windows 11 PCs</strong> - $90 adapter makes Wi-Fi 6E adoption slightly easier. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1883728">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>After pushing AV1 codec, Google goes after Dolby with HDR and audio standards</strong> - AV1’s Alliance for Open Media wants more royalty-free standards. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1883817">link</a></p></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
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<li><strong>After my prostate exam the doctor walked out and the nurse walked in. Then she asked me something no man wants to hear..</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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Who was that?
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/pvsocialmedia"> /u/pvsocialmedia </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/xljo4p/after_my_prostate_exam_the_doctor_walked_out_and/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/xljo4p/after_my_prostate_exam_the_doctor_walked_out_and/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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<li><strong>Sunday morning sex</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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Sunday Morning Sex
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Upon hearing that her elderly grandfather had just passed away, Katie went straight to her grandparent’s house to visit her 95 year-old grandmother and comfort her. When she asked how her grandfather had died, her grandmother replied, “He had a heart attack while we were making love on Sunday morning.” Horrified, Katie told her grandmother that 2 people nearly 100 years old having sex would surely be asking for trouble. “Oh no, my dear,” replied granny. “Many years ago, realizing our advanced age, we figured out the best time to do it was when the church bells would start to ring. It was just the right rhythm. Nice and slow and even. Nothing too strenuous, simply in on the Ding and out on the Dong.” She paused to wipe away a tear, and continued, “He’d still be alive if the ice cream truck hadn’t come along.”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/IrishB1ight"> /u/IrishB1ight </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/xlahnt/sunday_morning_sex/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/xlahnt/sunday_morning_sex/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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<li><strong>I asked my wife why she married me.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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I asked my wife why she married me.
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She said “Because you are funny.”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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I said “I thought it was because I was good in bed.”
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She said “See? You’re hilarious!”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Royal_Cover_9428"> /u/Royal_Cover_9428 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/xltxuc/i_asked_my_wife_why_she_married_me/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/xltxuc/i_asked_my_wife_why_she_married_me/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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<li><strong>Guy comes back from deployment after a year…</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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And immediately when he gets home, he shows his wife a new trick he taught himself. He drops his pants and looks at his member and says “Soldier, ten-hut!” His member immediately shoots errect. She finds this ammusing. “Baby,” he says “there is more.” He looks down at his member and says “At Ease soldier.” His member goes limp. She thinks this is amazing! He keeps this up for a good 30 minutes. The wife is so amazed, she runs to her neighbor and best friend who is a smoking hot blonde with a curvaceous figure. When she and the wife return, he says “Soldier, ten-hut!” His member shoots erect. The neighbor is amused, but the wife says it gets better. He looks down and says “Soldier, at ease.” It stays erect. “Soldier, at ease!” he says in a very demanding way. It stays erect. Embarrassed now, he runs to the bathroom. After him being in the bathroom for 10 minutes, the wife wonders what is going on. The wife goes in the bathroom and catches him masterbating. “Baby! What are you doing?” She says appallingly! “The soldier wouldnt get at ease so I have to give him a dishonorable discharge.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/ErebosDragon"> /u/ErebosDragon </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/xlhinz/guy_comes_back_from_deployment_after_a_year/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/xlhinz/guy_comes_back_from_deployment_after_a_year/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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<li><strong>Avril Lavigne could have just called her song Skater boy instead of Sk8er Boi.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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Why’d you have to go and make things so complicated?
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/MrMarcD"> /u/MrMarcD </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/xkyq20/avril_lavigne_could_have_just_called_her_song/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/xkyq20/avril_lavigne_could_have_just_called_her_song/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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</ul>
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