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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
<ul>
<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Donald Trump Coasts to Victory in the Iowa Republican Caucuses</strong> - About half of the states caucus-goers went for the former President, leaving his closest challengers—Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis—in a desperate race for a distant second place. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/donald-trump-coasts-to-victory-in-the-iowa-republican-caucuses">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Iowa Caucuses: When Ron DeSantis Forgot His Coat</strong> - On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, the Florida governor faces blizzards, skeptical voters, and the chill of his own campaign. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/when-ron-desantis-forgot-his-coat-iowa-caucuses">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Deadly Challenges of War Coverage in Gaza</strong> - Clarissa Ward, the first Western reporter to enter Gaza without an I.D.F. escort since October 7th, has faced accusations of pro-Israel bias even as she strives to highlight Arab suffering. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-communications/the-deadly-challenges-of-war-coverage-in-gaza">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>For Iowa Voters, the Endless Caucuses Ended Too Soon</strong> - After months of G.O.P. candidates being photographed holding babies, eating ice cream, and gazing into hog pens, Donald Trump won the state with little effort. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/for-iowa-voters-the-endless-caucuses-ended-too-soon">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Trump Receives a Warm Embrace in Frigid Iowa</strong> - Before the caucuses, snow had kept the former President away from his enthusiastic crowds. On Saturday, he finally arrived in Des Moines. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/trump-receives-a-warm-embrace-in-frigid-iowa">link</a></p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
<ul>
<li><strong>The Supreme Court is running away from transgender rights cases</strong> -
<figure>
<img alt="A person in a group of trans rights protesters outside the Supreme Court building holds a sign that reads, “We want to live free.”" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4Vi7oenKyoDVx-CqO11aVhfd_sU=/172x0:2928x2067/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73061387/1174752369.0.jpg"/>
<figcaption>
Trans rights protesters outside of the Supreme Court building in 2019. | Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
For the third time in the last year, the Supreme Court turned away an opportunity to make life much worse for trans youth.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="D451xE">
For the third time in the last year, the <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus">Supreme Court</a> unexpectedly turned away a case asking it to diminish the rights of young <a href="https://www.vox.com/lgbtq">transgender</a> Americans in much of the country.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BuHun9">
On Tuesday, the Court announced that it <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/011624zor_e1pf.pdf">would not hear <em>Metropolitan School District v. A.C.</em></a>, a case asking whether public school districts may require transgender students to use bathrooms that align with their sex assigned at birth, as opposed to their <a href="https://www.vox.com/gender">gender identity</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Totor6">
In <em>A.C.</em>, the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit <a href="https://casetext.com/case/a-c-v-metro-sch-dist-of-martinsville">ruled in favor of three trans students</a> — so these students may use the bathroom that aligns with their identity. Because the Supreme Court decided not to hear this case, this Seventh Circuit ruling will stand, at least for now. The Seventh Circuit has jurisdiction over federal legal disputes in Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zRgBxZ">
The Court turned this case away, moreover, despite the fact that it fits the criteria the justices normally use to decide which cases to hear. Among other things, the question of whether trans students have a right to use the bathroom that aligns with their gender identity has <a href="https://casetext.com/case/adams-v-sch-bd-of-st-johns-cnty-4">divided</a> <a href="https://casetext.com/case/a-c-v-metro-sch-dist-of-martinsville">federal appeals</a> <a href="https://casetext.com/case/grimm-v-gloucester-cnty-sch-bd-8">courts</a>, and the Supreme Court frequently steps in to resolve such disagreements.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mo7tFC">
The anti-trans side was also represented by Republican super-lawyer Paul Clement, a former US Solicitor General who has an <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-392/284706/20231011141903497_2023-10-11%20Final%20Martinsville%20Cert%20Petition.pdf">unusual amount of influence over the Courts right flank</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lbamnE">
<em>A.C.</em> is also the second time in just over a month that the Court walked away from a major LGBTQ rights dispute that divided lower court judges. In December, the Court also announced that it would not hear <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/tingley-v-ferguson/"><em>Tingley v. Ferguson</em></a>, a case challenging Washington states restrictions on “conversion therapy” — a technique that tries to turn LGBTQ patients into cisgender heterosexuals or prevent them from expressing their actual sexual orientation or gender identity.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="odMJ5q">
As the lower court that upheld Washingtons restrictions noted in its opinion, “every major medical, psychiatric, psychological, and professional <a href="https://www.vox.com/mental-health">mental health</a> organization <a href="https://casetext.com/case/tingley-v-ferguson-2">opposes the use of conversion therapy</a>.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ZvWYl1">
Additionally, last April — in a case called <a href="https://utexas.app.box.com/v/BPJApplication"><em>West Virginia v. B.P.J.</em></a> — the Court <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/3/14/23635663/supreme-court-transgender-sports-constitution-stanford-kyle-duncan-protest">decided not to kick a transgender student</a> off of her middle school girls cross-country team. A lower court had blocked a West Virginia state law forbidding her from competing with other girls, and the Supreme Court rejected a request to temporarily reinstate that law while the case is being litigated. (This case could potentially reach the justices again in the future.)
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="O5aC6d">
These decisions are surprising for three reasons. One is that Republican appointees control six of the nine seats on the Supreme Court, and this Court is often <a href="https://www.vox.com/22889417/supreme-court-religious-liberty-christian-right-revolution-amy-coney-barrett">exceedingly sympathetic to concerns raised by the religious right</a>. Just last June, for example, the Court ruled that a conservative Christian website designer has a <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/2023/6/30/23779816/supreme-court-lgbtq-ruling-neil-gorsuch-303-creative-elenis">constitutional right to discriminate against LGBTQ customers</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0iy6nb">
Both <em>A.C.</em> and <em>Tingley</em>, moreover, satisfied the ordinary criteria the justices use to determine which cases to hear. In both cases, lower courts have <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/2023/12/11/23889129/supreme-court-conversion-therapy-washington-lgbtq-tingley-ferguson">divided on what federal law has to say about LGBTQ rights</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RUTKJK">
And, on top of all of this, in all three cases, the anti-LGBTQ side raised a plausible argument that existing law supports their preferred outcome. The <em>Tingley</em> case <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/2023/12/11/23889129/supreme-court-conversion-therapy-washington-lgbtq-tingley-ferguson">turns on contradictory language in a 2018 Supreme Court decision</a>, which can be read to support either outcome in <em>Tingley</em>. Meanwhile, the <em>A.C.</em> and <em>B.P.J.</em> cases raise questions that the Court left open in its landmark LGBTQ rights decision in <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf/17-1618_hfci.pdf"><em>Bostock v. Clayton County</em></a> (2020).
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WX8Auu">
It sure appears, in other words, that the Court is running scared from transgender rights cases, at least for the moment.
</p>
<h3 id="fdyPOk">
Trans rights cases involving bathrooms and sports raise particularly challenging questions under current law
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PwJThA">
<em>Bostock</em> asked whether a federal law that forbids “sex” discrimination in the workplace also forbids discrimination against LGBTQ people. <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf/17-1618_hfci.pdf">Six justices concluded that it does</a>, and the Court held that “it is impossible to discriminate against a person for being homosexual or transgender without discriminating against that individual based on sex.” If an employer fires a male employee for dating a man, for example, but permits female employees to date men, then thats just ordinary sex discrimination because this employer permits women to do something that men may not.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="UyySc4">
Similarly, <em>Bostock</em> held that if an employer penalizes an “employee who was identified as female at birth” for presenting as a man or otherwise engaging in stereotypically male behavior, but does not penalize “a person identified as male at birth” for the same actions, that is also sex discrimination forbidden by federal law.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="biM7og">
While this was a historic victory for transgender rights, it also left unresolved one of the most important questions that arises in such cases: whether the concept of “gender” exists separately, as a legal matter, from “status as either male or female [as] determined by reproductive biology.” Indeed, <em>Bostock</em> was decided “on the assumption that” the term “sex” refers exclusively to “biological distinctions between male and female.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YlJ9d5">
And yet, even if you assume that the law refers only to “biological” sex, <em>Bostock</em> still concluded that most forms of discrimination against trans people violate that law because they necessarily require treating men (or people assigned male at birth) differently than women (or people assigned female at birth).
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aAPMLP">
Federal law, however, also <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/6/26/23752360/supreme-court-lgbtq-transgender-bathrooms-sports-gender-affirming-care-bostock">permits sex discrimination in certain limited circumstances</a>. The law forbidding sex discrimination in most educational facilities, for example, permits those facilities to maintain “<a href="https://media.ca11.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/files/201813592.2.pdf">separate living facilities for the different sexes</a>.” Federal regulations also permit schools to have “separate toilet, locker room, and shower facilities on the basis of sex,” as long as the facilities “provided for students of one sex [are] comparable to such facilities provided for students of the other sex.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ZliH2V">
Similarly, federal bans on sex discrimination have long been understood to permit sex-segregated sports teams — otherwise, women-only teams could not exist.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aoRAfy">
Cases like <em>A.C.</em> and <em>B.P.J.</em>, in other words, raise a question that was not resolved in <em>Bostock</em>. <em>Bostock</em> was agnostic on whether a trans man is a man. In order to decide the <em>A.C.</em> case, by contrast, the Seventh Circuit had to resolve “<a href="https://casetext.com/case/a-c-v-metro-sch-dist-of-martinsville">who counts as a boy for the boys rooms, and who counts as a girl for the girls rooms</a>.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pqJmJU">
If you want a deeper dive into the legal arguments for and against requiring schools to treat trans girls just like any other girl (or trans boys just like any other boy), <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/6/26/23752360/supreme-court-lgbtq-transgender-bathrooms-sports-gender-affirming-care-bostock">I wrote that deeper dive here</a>. For now, I will simply add that the Supreme Court appears determined not to resolve this question, even though lower courts are divided on how it should be answered.
</p></li>
<li><strong>After Iowa, is it time to trust the polls again?</strong> -
<figure>
<img alt="People wave DeSantis signs as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis enters the room." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/as_7DgjgHLaZGGFLkI0X6Nb7f54=/596x0:5357x3571/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73059890/1936514843.0.jpg"/>
<figcaption>
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis greets supporters at his caucus night event on January 15, 2024, in West Des Moines, Iowa. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The pollsters got Iowa spot on. That means trouble for Trumps rivals.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iamFcf">
<a href="https://www.vox.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>s resounding victory in the 2024 Iowa caucuses should have been expected by just about everyone. You could have seen it coming based on his fundraising numbers, his campaigns presence in the state, his refusal to debate his primary opponents — or you could have looked at just about any poll.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Sr6bBm">
Since 2016 (and 2020), however, theres been some apprehension about <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/9/23/23353634/polls-bias-democrats-midterms">trusting polls</a>. And even though the state-level polls were <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/us/elections/2022-poll-accuracy.html">generally</a> more <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/">accurate</a> in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23357154/2022-midterm-elections-guide">2022 midterms</a> than conventional wisdom holds, recent discourse about national polling of a Trump-Biden rematch has reignited those concerns.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XKXRcd">
Trump led the Republican field for the last year, hovering at about 50 percent in most polls in Iowa as far back as May 2023. And his final vote share, of 51 percent of the vote, is right in line with what most polls expected. And its not just Trump. Once all the votes were counted, it looks like the polling of Iowa was pretty accurate in the runup to Monday nights caucuses. The topline numbers are nearly identical to the final results. And for that to be true in Iowa, with its fickle weather, low turnout, and tedious caucus system, is a victory for pollsters, despite the widespread skepticism over public polling since 2016.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OEimzn">
Primary polling across the country historically tends to be pretty inaccurate, G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist and the editorial director of data analytics at ABC Newss FiveThirtyEight, told me. “Not just in Iowa, but they tend to be off on average 7 points. So for any given candidate, their vote share is 7 points different from their polls, going back to 1999 or so. In reality, it might be a bit bigger.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="cvqo8g">
But looking at the mean average error (MAE), the average disparity between the polls and the final results, for the top three candidates — Trump, <a href="https://www.vox.com/ron-desantis">Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis</a>, and former South Carolina Gov. <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2023/2/14/23599194/nikki-haley-donald-trump-2024-presidential-campaign">Nikki Haley</a> — that gap was just 2.3 points, by Morriss calculations. “You can round that down to 2 if you want to be optimistic, but right off the bat, the top lines were a lot more accurate this year compared to the average primary, and even more accurate than the average Iowa caucus.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Y8IAyr">
Historically, Iowa caucus polling tends to be <a href="https://www.wqad.com/article/news/politics/elections/how-accurate-iowa-caucus-polls/526-ff2801a4-af57-4f47-b012-df80959ebccf">all over the place</a>, reflecting the specific difficulties of polling in Iowa. The states voting population is rather small (about 2 million people), turnout rates tend to be even smaller, weather can always throw a wrench into the actual caucus day, and the caucus process can give an edge to candidates benefiting from enthusiastic supporters.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5V7L8u">
Beyond Trump, the individual polls were pretty close to the final vote totals for DeSantis and Haley. Take the highest-profile polling operation of the caucus: the famed Iowa Poll, conducted by the highly respected pollster Ann Selzer in conjunction with the Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom. Its last two polls, conducted in December and early January, showed a pretty stable picture after an early <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2023/12/11/iowa-poll-ron-desantis-nikki-haley-unable-to-shrink-donald-trumps-overwhelming-lead-iowa-caucuses/71850893007/">fall surge</a> for Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. Trump hovered around 50 percent in both polls — and the final read was of 48 percent of the electorate backing Trump, 20 percent backing Haley, and 16 percent backing DeSantis. The December poll showed Trump at 51 percent, Haley at 16 percent, and DeSantis at 19 percent.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hzkA3L">
The final results? Trump at 51 percent, DeSantis at 21 percent, and Haley at 19 — a mean average error of 3 points.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BJYxHM">
Morriss own poll aggregating operation was also close in line, logging Haleys support at 19 percent, DeSantiss at 16 percent, and Trumps at 53 percent, or an MAE of 2.5.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3ggKev">
“The modest surprise was DeSantis, who beat his polling average by 5 points,” Morris said. “That speaks to his edge on enthusiasm. He had a higher percentage of voters who really wanted to turn out and vote for him than Nikki Haley.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3LyMm8">
Whether this matters for the future of the Republican primary is less clear. Candidates who do better than their polls suggest in Iowa tend to gain ground in national polls, Morris said. But DeSantis has all but abandoned his chances of performing well in New Hampshires primary next week, and instead is focusing his campaigns work on doing better in South Carolina, where FiveThirtyEights average shows him<a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/south-carolina/"> trailing Trump and Haley</a>.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RB24LC">
And the surprising accuracy of the Iowa polling does not mean that polls for the rest of the cycle will be just as accurate or that their crosstabs are as close to reality. Those national and general election polls are entirely different from polls of one partys voters in individual states, and they may be more susceptible to the kind of non-response bias and polling troubles showing up in <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/24034416/young-voters-biden-trump-gen-z-polling-israel-gaza-economy-2024-election">national polls of young voters</a>, for example.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Wm6yqh">
“2016 and 2020 were, of course, pretty bad for the pollsters. 2022 and 2023 were a little bit better,” Morris said. “So when the news is good for them, and for the people like me who like to average polls, we like to share the good news and remind people that this tool that we all rely on for democracy is not as hopelessly broken as most of the commentary implies.”
</p></li>
<li><strong>How Congress is planning to lift 400,000 kids out of poverty</strong> -
<figure>
<img alt="A child in a crowd holding up a sign that says NO R&amp;amp;D WITHOUT THE CHILD TAX CREDIT." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RW9DLKoKAhS6COdc0Z0-JvRLmHg=/0x0:7285x5464/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73059837/1447500817.0.jpg"/>
<figcaption>
This kid got exactly the deal she wanted! | Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for Economic Security Project
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Were not bringing back the extended child tax credit. But this deal is better than nothing.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="AjQ9pb">
The <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/4/18/23026908/child-tax-credit-joe-manchin-policy-feedback-partisan">child tax credit</a> has had a roller coaster of a decade so far. In 2021, the Democratic <a href="https://www.vox.com/congress">Congress</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/joe-biden">Joe Biden</a> enacted the largest-ever expansion of the provision, making it a monthly benefit of up to $300 (or up to $3,600 annually) paid to all parents, even those without income.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="J6aYMM">
Then … it ended. Despite widespread Democratic support for making that change permanent, the credit went back to a $2,000 annual benefit in 2022, with strings attached that limited how much poor families could get. The poorest families went from getting up to $3,600 per kid to getting $0.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TxcA19">
Ever since, antipoverty activists have been strategizing about how to expand the credit again. The votes clearly werent there in the Senate for the full proposal, and after the 2022 midterms, the votes werent there in the House either. So hopes started to revolve around a tit-for-tat deal: Maybe an expanded credit with more benefits for poor children could pass if combined with some business tax breaks Republicans wanted. The GOP wouldnt necessarily want the expanded child credit, but theyd stomach one if they got something in return.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aaX77P">
Efforts to cut a deal along these lines foundered at the end of 2022, as <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/12/5/23489576/congress-child-tax-credit-omnibus-tax-lame-duck">my colleague Rachel Cohen reported</a>. A renewed push began at the end of last year, and for a while the outlook was similarly bleak.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="23vRGi">
Then, on Tuesday, Congresss two lead lawmakers on tax issues — Senate Finance chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) and House Ways and Means chair Jason Smith (R-MO) — <a href="https://www.finance.senate.gov/chairmans-news/wyden-smith-announce-agreement-on-tax-framework-to-help-families-and-main-street-businesses">announced they had come to a deal</a>. The arrangement was exactly the same one that <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3684768-combine-the-child-tax-credit-and-rd-tax-credit-for-a-bipartisan-home-run/">had been pitched for well over a year</a>: a child tax credit boost in exchange for more favorable treatment of research and development expenses. Generally seen as a Republican priority, the provision has some bipartisan backing.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="HgADIL">
The <a href="https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/the_tax_relief_for_american_families_and_workers_act_of_2024_technical_summary.pdf">technical details of the Wyden-Smith deal</a> are now available. It includes some provisions besides the child and R&amp;D provisions, like an extension of “bonus depreciation” (which lets businesses deduct the cost of property they buy faster), some provisions on US-Taiwan tax issues, and payments for people affected by the <a href="https://www.vox.com/science/2023/2/18/23603471/east-palestine-ohio-derailment-water-contamination-health">East Palestine train derailment</a> in Ohio. The much-covered rule requiring <a href="https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report/whats-next-for-cash-app-venmo-users-and-irs-reporting-rules">payments on apps like Venmo and Square Cash in excess of $600 to be reported</a> to the IRS is amended, with the limit raised to $1,000. To pay for all this, the deal rolls back the Employee Retention Tax Credit, a business credit enacted to encourage employers to keep people in their jobs during the Covid pandemic.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ak4pag">
For people who care about child poverty, though, the real action is in the child credit section.
</p>
<h3 id="lyLA9h">
How the bipartisan deal changes the child tax credit
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gmi4pv">
The Wyden-Smith deal significantly expands the child tax credit, with changes designed mostly to benefit households earning around $20,000 to $40,000 a year. The details of <em>how</em> it does this are a little complicated.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="v1hG1g">
Currently, the credit is limited to 15 percent of a filers income in excess of $2,500 a year. Thats a rather slow phase-in, and it means that, for instance, a family with two children making $20,000 wont get the credits full benefit (and a family making $10,000 would get still less). It also features a “refundable maximum”: While the credit is worth $2,000 per child for families earning enough money to owe income taxes, at most $1,600 per child is available to families that dont have a tax bill — that is, poor and working-class families. About <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/model-estimates/tax-units-with-zero-or-negative-federal-individual-income-tax-oct-2022/t22-0128">2 in 5 American households owe $0 in income taxes</a> or get money back on net. The refundable maximum limits how much these families can benefit from the child credit.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ZSE7j7">
The Wyden-Smith deal changes both of these aspects of the credit. The phase-in rate is still 15 percent but is now applied on a per-child basis. Right now, the way the credit works for a family with multiple kids is that the maximum refundable amount is multiplied by the number of kids and then phased in with income at 15 percent, so a family with three kids has a $4,800 total credit, which then gradually phases in. The Wyden-Smith approach treats the family as getting three separate $1,600 credits, which phase in <em>simultaneously</em> at 15 percent, resulting in much more money for low-income families.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rczkTY">
This change can be a little hard to grasp, so heres a chart showing how the phase-in works for families with two or three children, under both the old (dotted lines) and new (solid lines) provisions:
</p>
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</div></div></li>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="q1YtTs">
Effectively, the new credit means that everyone gets the full refundable credit once they earn $14,000 a year or more, whereas under previous law parents of three kids making as much as $34,000 a year still werent getting the full benefit.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="NZAP0O">
As the chart indicates, this change is targeted at families earning in the $20,000 to $40,000 a year range, not families with little or no income. The <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/model-estimates/options-modify-refundability-child-tax-credit-november-2023/t23-0095-increase-ctc">Tax Policy Center</a> estimates that about 58 percent of the tax benefit goes to families earning $20,000 to $40,000 a year, with almost all of it (87.2 percent) going to families making $10,000 to $50,000. The average benefiting family gets $1,130 more a year from the change.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="w4vTYt">
The law also changes the refundable maximum. Under current law, the maximum is indexed for inflation. It had increased to <a href="https://www.eitc.irs.gov/other-refundable-credits-toolkit/what-you-need-to-know-about-ctc-and-actc/what-you-need-to-know">$1,600</a> for 2023 and was due to keep increasing. The $2,000 maximum credit for families who owe income taxes, by contrast, was not indexed for inflation. Over time, observers expected the refundable maximum to reach $2,000 due to inflation and thus become irrelevant.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kcOLi1">
The Wyden-Smith deal speeds up that convergence by increasing the 2023 maximum to $1,800, then setting it to $1,900 in 2024 and $2,000 in 2025. Both those numbers and the total $2,000 credit will be indexed for inflation. By 2025, the maximum is done away with, and poor taxpayers get the same $2,000 credit as everyone else from that year onward. Better yet, all taxpayers get a constantly increasing child credit thereafter. Like the change to the phase-in approach, most of the benefit from this policy goes to those making $20,000 to $40,000 a year, per the <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/model-estimates/options-modify-refundability-child-tax-credit-november-2023/t23-0093-repeal-ctc">Tax Policy Center</a>. The average affected household gets about $350 back a year.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="xOel8N">
Finally, the deal includes a “lookback” provision for tax years 2024 and 2025. This allows a taxpayer to use the previous years income to qualify for the credit, if doing so results in a bigger benefit. This rule has been introduced in the past to account for emergencies (like Covid), and its generally beneficial to families enduring temporary difficulties. Under current law, a parent who earned $30,000 in 2023 but spent all of 2024 unemployed would get nothing from the child tax credit in the latter year. But with a lookback, they could get the full credit.
</p>
<h3 id="qytPIq">
How big a deal is this?
</h3>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PuJ9vN">
Putting all the provisions together, the <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/about-16-million-children-in-low-income-families-would-gain-in-first-year-of-0">Center on Budget and Policy Priorities</a> estimates that the deal will lift about 400,000 children out of poverty, and make another 3 million less poor, in its first year. By 2025, it will be keeping 500,000 children a year out of poverty.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yFvtTn">
While nothing to sneeze at, this is a far cry from the <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/press/statements/record-rise-in-poverty-highlights-importance-of-child-tax-credit-health-coverage#:~:text=Renewing%20this%202021%20credit%20would,calculate%20using%20data%20Census%20released">roughly 3 million children that would been lifted out of poverty</a> in 2022 if the 2021 expansion of the credit had been extended. It is a dramatically more modest step. It also takes as a given that the credit will not be available to families with zero earnings, a key disagreement between Democratic and Republican legislators on which the latter have shown no flexibility.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="q18W9t">
All that being said, the CBPP authors note that the proposal is very well-targeted, and its CTC provisions “direct all of their benefits to children in low-income families who receive less than the full credit under current law.”
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="in7PvE">
Some Democratic legislators, notably House Ways and Means ranking member <a href="https://twitter.com/ben_guggenheim/status/1745524769712197757">Richard Neal</a> (D-MA) and longtime child credit champion and Appropriations ranking member <a href="https://delauro.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/delauro-statement-proposed-tax-deal-framework">Rosa DeLauro</a> (D-CT), have signaled opposition to the deal, arguing it does not go far enough.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="UpxD1E">
And, indeed, for supporters of the 2021 credit, it does not go nearly far enough. By some other standards, its also a bit of a disappointment. When <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23959612/child-tax-credit-compromise-bipartisan">I wrote about a possible compromise back in November</a>, I envisioned a bill that increased the credits phase-in rate to 30 percent and reduced the earnings minimum from $2,500 to $0. Neither of those changes made it into the final deal. I think theyre logical next steps for antipoverty advocates to demand.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1WVfa2">
But 400,000 children taken out of poverty is also nothing to sneeze at, and some business credits with bipartisan support are a pretty paltry price to pay. So too is the early expiration of a program intended for the dark days of 2020, when Covid was causing mass unemployment, and not 2024 when unemployment is under 4 percent.
</p>
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="geBuoZ">
I expect that as the measure reaches the House and Senate floors, supporters of the child credit will come around and back it. The alternative is a status quo that does even less for children.
</p>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Vafadar, Stormy Ocean and Joon please</strong> -</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Endurance and Exuma please</strong> -</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Daily Quiz | On Muhammad Ali</strong> - A quiz on the iconic boxer Muhammad The Greatest Ali who would have turned 82 on January 17</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Redfern to be first ICC-appointed female neutral umpire for bilateral series</strong> - Redferns appointment follows the International Cricket Council (ICC) decision to appoint one neutral umpire for all ICC Womens Championship series as well as any T20I matches</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Praggnanandhaa stuns world champion Liren; surpasses Viswanathan Anand as No. 1 Indian chess player</strong> - Praggnanandhaa had also beaten Liren at the 2023 Tata Steel tournament</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>105 cases registered against rooster fight organisers in West Godavari</strong> - While 49 cases were registered in Narsapuram division, 28 cases each were registered in Bhimavaram and Tadepalligudem divisions</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Maramon Convention to begin on February 11</strong> - The 129-year-old even will be inaugurated by Theodosius Mar Thoma, Metropolitan of the Malankara Mar Thoma Syrian Church at 2.30  p.m. on February 12</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Congress springs surprise by picking up Mahesh Goud, Balamoor Venkat as MLC candidates</strong> - Party pitches for a youth leader and a seasoned BC leader as nominees</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Two persons including minor boy gored to death at Siravayal manjuvirattu in Sivaganga</strong> - Police said the bulls, which were outside the sporting arena, suddenly charged at spectators.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Here are the big stories from Karnataka today</strong> - Welcome to the Karnataka Today newsletter, your guide from The Hindu on the major news stories to follow today. Curated and written by Nalme Nachiyar.</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
<ul>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Russia protest: Crowds clash with riot police as activist jailed</strong> - Riot police clash with protesters in small town in the Urals after Fail Alsynov was jailed.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Frederik X: Danish monarch publishes The Kings Word three days into reign</strong> - Frederik X discusses thoughts on Denmarks place in world and his relationship with his wife.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Frances Macron shifts to right on schools and birth rate</strong> - The French president promotes school uniforms, a drug gang crackdown and raising the low birth rate.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Polands journalists caught up in battle for airwaves</strong> - Public TV and radio are entangled in a political battle as Poland shifts away from the right.</p></li>
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Doppelganger murder: German woman goes on trial accused of killing lookalike</strong> - Sharaban K is accused of selecting her victim because of her similar looks to fake her own death.</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>New UEFI vulnerabilities send firmware devs across an entire ecosystem scrambling</strong> - PixieFail is a huge deal for cloud and data centers. For the rest, less so. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1996543">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Twin Galaxies lawyer says settlement avoids “an inordinate amount of costs”</strong> - Tashroudian: “I think the finality really is something that we wanted to achieve.” - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1996518">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>AI “Black Box” placed in more hospital operating rooms to improve safety</strong> - Questions about liability linger, but fans say it offers a trove of useful surgical data. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1996522">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Google lays off “hundreds” more as ad division switches to AI-powered sales</strong> - Googlers are now building AI tools so other Googlers can be laid off. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1996432">link</a></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Climate denialists find new ways to monetize disinformation on YouTube</strong> - Majority of climate-denial content posted now does not violate YouTubes policy. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1996433">link</a></p></li>
</ul>
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
<ul>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Three men met on a nude beach. Two of the three men were happy, but the third was sad.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The three men broke into a conversation. Eventually, they started talking about their jobs, and why they were at the beach.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Im a construction worker,” said the first man. “All day long I toil in the hot, hot sun, and do so wearing very heavy clothes. Its quite exhausting. But here, I can relax, and do so without any clothing at all.”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Im an accountant,” said the second man. “I just like how everyone here is dressed exactly the same.”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The first two men turned to the third, sad man. “What about you?” they asked. “Why are you here?”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“My doctor sent me here,” said the third man. “Im a pickpocket.”
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<!-- SC_ON -->
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/wimpykidfan37"> /u/wimpykidfan37 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/198ajmb/three_men_met_on_a_nude_beach_two_of_the_three/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/198ajmb/three_men_met_on_a_nude_beach_two_of_the_three/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>My wife found out I was cheating after she found the letters I was hiding</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
She got mad and said she is never playing Scrabble with me again!
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<!-- SC_ON -->
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/testturkey"> /u/testturkey </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/198mpir/my_wife_found_out_i_was_cheating_after_she_found/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/198mpir/my_wife_found_out_i_was_cheating_after_she_found/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>So a guy with a nice suit walks into a diner, and an ostrich follows him.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
He orders eggs and bacon, the ostrich says “Same here”, they scarf down their meals, the waitress brings the bill, the guy pays it, with exact change, and both leave.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Next day this repeats, the guy orders a milkshake, the ostrich says “Same”, etc. Again, exact change.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
Next evening they order a steak and fries each, etc. The waitress asks: “How come you wear such a nice suit but never tip, always having exact change down to a penny, and whats with the ostrich?”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The guy says “Oh, thats a bit of a long story, but its kind of crazy. You see, Im a pilot. I was flying over the Sahara desert doing some aerial photography, but the engines gave out and the plane crashed. Miraculously I survived and strode through the desert for three days and three nights until I found some old ruins, where I took shelter from the scorching sun. In there, I found an old lamp, rubbed it, and a genie came out, promising me three wishes for freeing him. So for my first wish I asked to be returned from the desert back home.”
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“Thats right.” said the ostrich.
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“For the second wish, I asked to always have enough money for anything Id like to pay for. Now I always have just enough money in my back pocket, and not a penny more!”
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“That you do.” said the ostrich.
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“That sure sounds convenient.” said the waitress. “But whats with the bird?”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
“Oh, for my third wish I asked to be followed everywhere by a talking ostrich.”
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<!-- SC_ON -->
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/thefran"> /u/thefran </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/198g4ap/so_a_guy_with_a_nice_suit_walks_into_a_diner_and/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/198g4ap/so_a_guy_with_a_nice_suit_walks_into_a_diner_and/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>A father is driving his son to his first day of school</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
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The boy looks worried, so his dad asks him “Whats wrong?”
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The kid asks his father nervously, “How long do I have to go to school for?”
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“Until youre 18.” says the father.
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The boy nods quietly. When they get to the front of the school, he asks, “Daddy, can you please give my puppy a hug for me?”
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“You can hug him when you get home, son.” says the father.
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“Well can you please give mommy a big hug for me
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“Son,” the father says abruptly, “you can hug her when you get home.”
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The boys eyes get watery and he starts to sniff. So the father adds, “Dont worry so much, youll be fine. Go on now.”
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The boy nods and wipes his nose. “Daddy, can I ask one more question?”
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“Go on.” says the dad.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
The boy, now very teary-eyed, says “Daddy, youll remember to come get me when Im 18, wont you?”
</p>
</div>
<!-- SC_ON -->
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Hipp013"> /u/Hipp013 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/19860yn/a_father_is_driving_his_son_to_his_first_day_of/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/19860yn/a_father_is_driving_his_son_to_his_first_day_of/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Whats the fastest thing in the world?</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
<div class="md">
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
A study was being held to determine what people thought was the fastest thing in the world and were asking random people on yhe street what their answers were.
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The first person replied “A blink! In the blink of an eye, you dont see yourself blink, blinking is the fastest thing in the world.”
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The second person answered “Thinking, is the fastest thing in the world. You think a thought and there it is, its instantaneous. Its thinking.”
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The third person surveyed says “A light switch is pretty fast, you flick the switch and right away a light goes on. Turning on a light is the fastest thing in the world!”
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The fourth man pondered the question for a long time before finally answering sincerely, “Diarrhea.” The person running the questionnaire looks up and says “Diarrhea? Really?” The man says, “Yep. I was laying in bed the other night and before i could blink, think, or turn on a light, I shit myself.”
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/darbguy"> /u/darbguy </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/198bqw7/whats_the_fastest_thing_in_the_world/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/198bqw7/whats_the_fastest_thing_in_the_world/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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