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<title>07 November, 2022</title>
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<title>Daily-Dose</title><meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" name="viewport"/><link href="styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><link href="../styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><style>*{overflow-x:hidden;}</style><link href="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.css" rel="stylesheet"/><script src="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.js"></script></head>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Why Republican Insiders Think the G.O.P. Is Poised for a Blowout</strong> - The consensus among pollsters and consultants is this Tuesday’s election will be a “bloodbath” for the Democratic Party. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/why-republican-insiders-think-the-gop-is-poised-for-a-blowout">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Aftermath of Israel’s Gevalt Election</strong> - Benjamin Netanyahu’s orchestration of a union between two ultranationalist groups will likely return him to power and may allow him to escape prosecution. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-aftermath-of-israels-gevalt-election">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Political Attack on the Native American Vote</strong> - Voters on Navajo, Apache, and Hopi reservations helped swing Arizona for the Democrats in 2020. In response, the Republican governor and state legislature have curtailed ballot access for an already marginalized constituency. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/the-political-attack-on-the-native-american-vote">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Affirmative Action and the Supreme Court’s Troubled Treatment of Asian Americans</strong> - Students for Fair Admissions is one of only a few Supreme Court cases about the rights of Asian Americans. But what will it achieve on their behalf? - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/affirmative-action-and-the-supreme-courts-troubled-treatment-of-asian-americans">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Iran Arms Russia in the War in Ukraine</strong> - Tehran has deepened its alliance with Putin amid widespread protests at home. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/iran-arms-russia-in-the-war-in-ukraine">link</a></p></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>8 questions the 2022 midterms will answer</strong> -
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/OrZhJ3-7S7mWfaz77eouMTgjYsk=/241x0:1592x1013/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71595047/five_question_midterm_board_1.0.jpg"/>
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<figcaption>
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Christina Animashaun/Vox; Getty Images
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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The winners of close races might not be known on election night, but here are some clues we might get about the future of US politics.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="xEOQwF">
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Election Day 2022 is almost here. On Tuesday, millions of voters will decide control of Congress, state houses, governor’s seats, and local offices, as well as new policy through ballot initiatives in <a href="https://www.vox.com/midterm-elections-2022">the 2022 midterm elections</a>.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="cu1GjN">
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We won’t know the results of every election — including some big ones — by the time Wednesday morning rolls around, due to varying deadlines for ballot-counting. But when all is said and done, we’ll finally have the answers to eight key <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23357154/2022-midterm-elections-guide">political questions</a> that have vexed us this cycle, and a better understanding of the trends that will shape American politics in the years to come.
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</p>
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<h3 id="z6lCfC">
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<strong>1) Is it as simple as “the economy, stupid”?</strong>
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="NNorNb">
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Look at just about any poll and you’ll consistently find that the state of the economy, and specifically high <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/10/27/republicans-resurgent-economy-midterms/10596369002/">inflation</a>, is the top concern of American voters. The share of voters this year who told Gallup the economy was “extremely important” to them (<a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/404243/economy-top-election-issue-abortion-crime-next.aspx">about 49 percent</a>) has not been this high since 2010, the midterms after the Great Recession.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MY3agA">
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Those concerns aren’t unfounded: Though unemployment remains <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-03/us-jobless-claims-hold-near-historic-low-despite-cooling-economy">near a historic low</a>, inflation was still at 8.2 percent in September compared to a year ago, despite aggressive action from the Federal Reserve to tamp down consumer demand with interest rate hikes. And in battleground states around the country, rising costs of living, including finicky gas prices, registered as top concerns throughout the summer and fall — though there was a brief period starting after the leak of the Supreme Court’s intent to overturn <em>Roe v. Wade</em> when abortion rights <a href="https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_051222/">rivaled economic concerns</a> as the top issue in voters’ minds.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RPZEyg">
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The math is simple if you only consider economic issues: Since Republicans have <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/10/20/midterm-voting-intentions-are-divided-economic-gloom-persists/">a significant lead</a> among voters who rank the economy as a top concern, Democratic candidates in statewide and congressional races, especially if they are incumbents, stand to bear the brunt of voters’ anger, fear, and frustration with the economy. That’s why so many strategists fall back on the idea of “the economy, stupid”— an easy reminder coined by former President Bill Clinton’s strategist <a href="https://www.vox.com/22338417/james-carville-democratic-party-biden-100-days">James Carville</a> — that incumbent leaders are weakest when hammered on economic conditions. That dynamic is apparent in the states with the tightest Senate and gubernatorial contests like Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. Democratic incumbents in each of those states are practically tied with Republican challengers who have zeroed in on inflation as their primary attack.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4C8J7d">
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But two other issues — crime and abortion — have also dominated the last few months, providing political boosts to the parties voters most trust to handle them. The strength either party has gained from these issues has also depended on economic outlook: As gas prices eased in late summer, Democrats’ and Joe Biden’s approval rose. But a dip in the markets and an uptick at the pump in the fall have pressured voters and refocused their attention on who they see as being in charge — and at fault.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="B2MEL5">
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Politicians, especially incumbents, haven’t usually been able to outrun bad economic news — Obama’s reelection in 2012 was one exception after a slow post-recession recovery. Whether voters care about anything more than pocketbook pain will get tested on Tuesday.
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</p>
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<h3 id="AD5eql">
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<strong>2) Is there any running away from an unpopular president? </strong>
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ioiYoM">
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The polls also all point to another fact: Joe Biden is very unpopular right now, especially in swing states, in large part due to how upset voters are with his handling of the economy and his leadership in general.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ZQst8X">
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The president’s approval rating remains low, with about 53 percent of Americans disapproving of his job performance, according to <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/">FiveThirtyEight</a>. And those numbers look worse state by state: About 6 in 10 likely voters disapprove of Biden in <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23126492-cnn-poll-arizona-october-2022">Arizona</a>, <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23126491-cnn-poll-nevada-october-2022">Nevada</a>, <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23178936/cnn-poll-on-pennsylvania.pdf">Pennsylvania</a>, <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23178931/cnn-poll-on-michigan.pdf">Michigan</a>, and <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23178929/cnn-poll-on-wisconsin.pdf">Wisconsin</a>.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9A4WJv">
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Political experts and pundits have long expected Biden to be a drag on Democratic candidates across the country because of the midterms normally being a referendum on the president’s party, Biden’s <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/20/bidens-job-rating-is-similar-to-trumps-but-lower-than-that-of-other-recent-presidents/">historically low ratings</a>, and the constant bad economic news this year has delivered. Those factors compound in the closest House races, where Republicans seem more energized to vote and Democrats have more vulnerable seats to defend.
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</p>
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<h3 id="jJ0FfA">
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<strong>3) How much of a boon — or a drag — is Donald Trump?</strong>
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iukSGt">
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In post-presidency polling, more than half of voters polled continue to dislike former President Donald Trump (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/17/upshot/times-siena-poll-likely-voters-crosstabs.html">about 52 percent</a>, like Biden). Before the 2018 midterms, Trump had the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/20/bidens-job-rating-is-similar-to-trumps-but-lower-than-that-of-other-recent-presidents/">same level of disapproval</a> as Biden did — fueling a blue wave election.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="49mC5g">
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This year, the former president played a major role in shaping general elections, intervening in primary contests in every battleground state to elevate candidates firmly in line with his movement, including those who deny the results of the 2020 election. His preferred candidates ended up winning in most races, including in the closest Senate and gubernatorial contests of the year, like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. They typically possess some combination of political inexperience, personal scandal, and right-wing ideology that opened them up to attacks and alienated independent voters — making their races more competitive for Democrats than they’d otherwise be.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jZjHbn">
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In the general election campaign, Trump has exerted a lot of energy rallying with these candidates. He made visits to Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, and hinted last week at an Iowa rally that he was planning to make an <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/03/donald-trump-rally-sioux-city-iowa-election-teases-run-president-2024/69607736007/">announcement about 2024</a>. His talk of running again has been strategic: Were he to formally announce a reelection effort earlier this year, he likely would have trained even more Democratic fire on vulnerable Republican candidates.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rQhGAa">
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Waiting until after the midterms are over helps Trump avoid culpability if some of those candidates lose, while victory in those races would confirm his status as a kingmaker and the de facto Republican nominee. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/03/politics/trump-2022-midterm-rallies-iowa/index.html">CNN reported</a> as much last week, citing advisers close to Trump who say the former president views the final days of the midterms as a runway to “carry embattled Republicans to victory” and eventually relaunch his own campaign. Essentially, it’s looking like Trump did matter for his chosen candidates; the reception to his candidacy will tell us just how much power he still wields.
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</p>
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<h3 id="MOWe6A">
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<strong>4) How potent is abortion as a political motivator?</strong>
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JRC4FX">
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Though the economy remains the predominant issue, abortion rights still rank highly on the minds of voters — especially among Democrats, liberals, women, and college-educated voters.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lCuKPC">
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In the wake of the Supreme Court ending the <a href="https://www.vox.com/23182181/abortion-roe-wade-dobbs-casey-democrats-supreme-court">national constitutional right to an abortion</a>, it seemed the issue, combined with policy wins this summer, was powering a <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/post-dobbs-landscape-fuels-democrats-optimism-note/story?id=88971001">Democratic surge</a> in the polls. In August, an <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/8/2/23278845/kansas-abortion-vote-constitutional-amendment">overwhelming victory</a> (and <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23290714/kansas-abortion-referendum-primary-turnout-charts">huge turnout</a>) batting down a Kansas referendum that would have allowed for abortion restrictions confirmed the power of running on protecting abortion rights, and, paired with a victory in an <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/8/24/23319493/winners-losers-new-york-florida-primaries">upstate New York special congressional election</a>, it made it seem as if the tide might be turning for Democrats.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4F6xcf">
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But that Democratic optimism, and the strength of abortion rights as a motivator in the face of strong economic and social headwinds, may have <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/19/23408788/midterms-2022-polls-republicans-forecast">peaked too soon</a>.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="IWM2uC">
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Purple battleground states (like Arizona, Georgia, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/31/23433107/michigan-legislature-elections-abortion">Michigan</a>, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) where reproductive rights are under assault, were temporarily banned, or stand to be restricted by legislatures without <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/7/14/23208518/governor-abortion-midterms-georgia-pennsylvania-michigan-kansas">Democratic governors</a> feature either extremely close congressional or toss-up governor’s races where Democrats have zeroed in on abortion rights as a way to attack Republicans. In <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/01/michigan-abortion-congressional-race-elissa-slotkin">Michigan</a>, for example, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer may benefit from her Republican opponent’s hard-line stance on abortion: While 40 percent of voters rank inflation as their top concern, <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/michigan-governors-race-whitmer-leads-dixon-poll-inflation-abortion-top-issues">31 percent prioritized abortion rights</a>. Similar dynamics are playing out in <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3861">Pennsylvania</a> and <a href="https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2022/11/02/mlsp74-press-release/">Wisconsin</a>’s governor races.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XUcPcP">
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In other states where abortion rights are protected to some degree, the issue is looking less potent. Nevada, for example, codified protections for abortion until 24 weeks of pregnancy through a 1990 referendum, and <a href="https://blog.ohpredictive.com/press-releases/majority-of-nevada-voters-call-themselves-pro-choice">nearly 90 percent</a> of residents support some degree of access to abortion. Democratic incumbents have made the matter a central part of their campaign: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto has called her Republican opponent an “automatic vote” for a federal abortion ban, and Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak has tried to force his opponent to defend restrictions on abortion in the state. But those messages have been muddled by the current state protections, by Republican candidates’ strategic silence or evasion of the topic, and by the strong headwinds of the economy.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0YqDl6">
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Abortion rights will also be on the ballot in <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/3/23380800/abortion-midterms-governor-attorney-ballot">referenda in Alaska, Kentucky, and Montana</a>, as well as a perfunctory vote in California to add abortion rights to the state constitution (state law already protects access). These statewide votes will provide a clearer answer on the salience of abortion rights among the general public — even if it isn’t a big motivator for electing specific politicians. If these referenda lead to big turnout, as was the case in Kansas, they could offer future road maps for progressive activists and liberal politicians hoping to protect abortion rights in post-<em>Dobbs</em> America.
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</p>
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<h3 id="aBvCSD">
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<strong>5) How accurate are the polls?</strong>
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YZM6hU">
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The polling error hangovers of 2016 and 2020 are still with us, and with good reason: Polling has gotten <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-pollsters-have-changed-since-2016-and-what-still-worries-them-about-2020/">more difficult to conduct</a>, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/01/upshot/polling-2022-midterms.html">bias of who participates</a> in polling still exists, and the price of commissioning and running those operations has grown. The result is that the 2022 elections have had fewer state and individual polls conducted than any midterms year since at least 2010, according to <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/youre-not-imagining-it-there-are-fewer-polls-this-cycle/">FiveThirtyEight</a>.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bAX8RX">
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Some outlets, like the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/upshot/polling-midterms-warning.html">New York Times</a> and, <em>ahem, </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/9/23/23353634/polls-bias-democrats-midterms">Vox</a>, have warned about the possibility that polls this year might be off, especially reflecting too big of a boost late this summer for Democrats. In 2016 and 2020, polls suffered from low-response rates from Trump supporters and undecided voters who made up their minds in the final days of the elections; pollsters didn’t expect to see such a strong tie <a href="https://www.vanderbilt.edu/unity/2021/01/11/polling-problems-and-why-we-should-still-trust-some-polls/">between college education and partisanship</a>, and because they couldn’t predict the makeup of the eventual electorate, they failed to weight the results they got properly. My colleague Andrew Prokop has written about <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/19/23408788/midterms-2022-polls-republicans-forecast">what this might mean for elections this year</a>, and you should read that if you’re worried, but the bottom line is that while polling is an inexact science (<a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/10/19/17995454/elections-2018-polls-predictions-democrats">3 percent polling errors are normal</a>), they are still the best quantitative way for experts, journalists, and laypeople to get a sense of what’s going on in an electorate.
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|
|
All this is to say that you should approach polls, especially those released in the final days of the campaign, with caution. State-by-state polling has consistently overrated Democrats’ performance. And especially in states where it is hard to conduct polling (Nevada, Wisconsin, and plenty of solidly red states, for example), results often understate the degree of Republican motivation.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RR1ZBT">
|
|||
|
|
After election night, we’ll know by just how much the polls were wrong and, more importantly, <em>how</em> they were wrong. That will allow pollsters to sharpen their models for the next cycle. That won’t be an easy task — pollsters will likely have to figure out new ways of reaching voters to have better samples, specifically of Republicans, those without college educations, Latinos, and other voters of color (who are frequently underpolled and <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=undersampling+latino+voters&oq=undersampling+latino+voters&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i395i512l2j0i512l7.2899j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">undersampled</a>).
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="kfT8ih">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>6) Does candidate quality matter?</strong>
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="itGnZW">
|
|||
|
|
One of the most visible concerns Republicans (and, to a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/20/democratic-midterm-candidate-quality-problem/">much lesser</a> <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/katie-hobbs-supporters-are-concerned-maga-firebrand-kari-lake-outshini-rcna51430">extent</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/us/politics/katie-hobbs-arizona-democrats.html">Democrats</a>) had this cycle was frustration with the kind of candidates they put up in competitive races. Due to former President Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/23287527/trump-gop-control-august-gop-primary-2022">promotion of</a> <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2022/09/13/the-gops-last-candidate-quality-test-00056533">imperfect or inexperienced loyalists</a>, “candidate quality” entered the national conversation even before Senate Minority Leader <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/mcconnell-says-republicans-may-not-win-senate-control-citing-candidate-rcna43777">Mitch McConnell fretted</a> aloud in August that flawed candidates might cost Republicans control of the Senate.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0JMg1Y">
|
|||
|
|
Republicans’ fear has centered on <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/4/23387712/herschel-walker-georgia-senate-raphael-warnock">Herschel Walker</a> in Georgia, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2022-09-01/midterm-election-arizona-senate-blake-masters-mark-kelly-candidate-quality-may-cost-republicans-control">Blake Masters</a> in Arizona, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/dr-oz-mitch-mcconnell-comments-b2152890.html">Mehmet Oz</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/30/midterm-elections-candidate-quality-governor-senate/">Doug Mastriano</a> in Pennsylvania, and, to a lesser extent, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2022-09-17/trump-rally-ohio-vance">J.D. Vance</a> in Ohio and <a href="https://www.nevadacurrent.com/2022/08/25/whats-adam-laxalt-chopped-liver/">Adam Laxalt</a> in Nevada — all candidates who have no political experience, have embroiled themselves in scandal, espouse far-right political stances, lack the charm or gravitas of other Republican candidates, or all of the above.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="EzDMGh">
|
|||
|
|
Two phenomena will determine how much of a setback these candidates will be for the GOP: <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23414915/split-ticket-voting-governor-senate-midterm">ticket-splitting and the nationalization of politics</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YvlwNY">
|
|||
|
|
Some statewide contests have seen big polling gaps between candidates of the same party: In Georgia, for example, Gov. Brian Kemp is polling far better than Walker; in Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine is running way ahead of Vance; in Arizona, gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is performing better than Masters. Some of that is likely due to voters not feeling strong allegiance to these candidates, and opting to do something they haven’t done in a while: make an exception in their straight party-line vote choices.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="dImbXz">
|
|||
|
|
But because state and local politics have become more entwined with national politics, many voters, including the most partisan kind (who tend to vote in midterms), will in the end vote <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3671821-candidate-quality-issues-aside-republicans-have-a-real-shot-at-the-senate/">for a party and not a candidate</a>. Biden’s low approval rating will compound this dynamic, but as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/01/politics/senate-control-biden-polling-fault-lines/index.html">Ron Brownstein wrote last week at CNN</a>, there is a not-insignificant chunk of voters in these states who disapprove of Biden and national Democrats but also view Republican Senate candidates unfavorably: “9% in Wisconsin, 11% in Nevada, 13% in Pennsylvania and 15% in Arizona, according to detailed results provided by the CNN polling unit.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="dslfFC">
|
|||
|
|
In other words, the GOP’s candidates are making this race a referendum on whether voters weigh persona or party more heavily.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="TrFfom">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>7) Are Latino voters really shifting right?</strong>
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="g0PHc7">
|
|||
|
|
This perennial question grew louder after Republican improvements among Latino voters in 2020, and again when Republicans sustained some of those gains among Latinos during off-year elections in 2021.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4wMwt0">
|
|||
|
|
Democrats are still expected to win a large majority of Latino voters: <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2022/09/29/most-latinos-say-democrats-care-about-them-and-work-hard-for-their-vote-far-fewer-say-so-of-gop/">This summer</a>, Pew Research found that nationally, 53 percent of Latino voters planned to vote for a Democrat in congressional elections, while 28 percent were backing Republicans. Nearly 20 percent were undecided or looking at a third party. This year, Democrats seem to be suffering losses of Latino support <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2022/09/29/latinos-and-the-2022-midterm-elections/">driven by the country’s economic condition</a> more than Republicans seem to be <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23378427/culture-economy-abortion-lgbtq-latino-democrats">gaining among these voters</a> — more a case of <a href="https://assets.ctfassets.net/ms6ec8hcu35u/52IX7xRBKXEfnKLuPwm5aB/80e3a487c69f8a3024e6bb35a299a1b6/Equis_2022_Fall_Election_Memo.pdf">gradual erosion</a> of support rather than a complete generational shift.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PChT3F">
|
|||
|
|
But Republicans <em>have</em> gained a foothold among <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/14/politics/latino-voters-texas-15th">Texas</a> and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/floridas-hispanic-voters-back-desantis-crist-support-marthas-vineyard-rcna53493">Florida</a> Latinos, where large, consistent investments in outreach and candidate recruitment have helped solidify gains. Election night results will likely give us a final answer on how durable these Republican efforts were but do not extrapolate national trends from these two unique places. Look to places like Arizona, Southern California, Nevada, and suburban Virginia for additional evidence of a red or blue shift among Latinos. In these places, however, turnout and results might say more about the lack of enthusiasm for Democrats than about Republican successes in courting these voters. The latter would be better news for Democrats, and offer a road map for winning back credibility on kitchen-table issues — especially affordability.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="DTKkp6">
|
|||
|
|
Tuesday’s results will either confirm a rightward trend among Latino voters in specific states — or show that the last two years may have been anomalies.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="NL6Czj">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>8) Do voters care about the threats to democracy?</strong>
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6ixocc">
|
|||
|
|
Nearly every state in the country features election deniers on the ballot, including 238 Republican House candidates, 20 GOP Senate and gubernatorial candidates, and 12 secretary of state contests, according to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/48-states-have-election-deniers-running-for-office-in-midterms/">a CBS News analysis</a>. And that means election integrity, voter participation, and the free and fair operation of future elections are on the line.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WgOMrL">
|
|||
|
|
Governors and secretaries of state are especially important in swing states like Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, where those offices have sway over the 2024 elections. Democrats in those contests have tried to make Republican efforts to overturn 2020 election results central to their pitches — and <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/11/2/23437820/biden-democracy-speech-election-deniers">Biden’s closing argument</a>, delivered last week, also centered on the threat to democracy these Republican candidates pose.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rVQmpE">
|
|||
|
|
Democrats have also tried to make the January 6 insurrection a core part of their attacks on Republican candidates in Arizona and Nevada to <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/the-issues-swaying-voters-in-the-battleground-state-of-arizona">mixed</a> <a href="https://emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2022-one-week-out-republicans-lead-democrats-for-us-senate-3-of-4-congressional-seats/">results</a>, while House candidates have struggled to make it a salient issue, even in the places you’d expect to be <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/2/23434760/elaine-luria-january-6-midterms">most open to that message</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uNPrN0">
|
|||
|
|
Though voters have said in polling they are concerned about election deniers, the legacy of January 6, and Republican efforts to subvert the legitimacy of elections, these threats to democracy may not outweigh the primary economic and social concerns most voters have.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XUzxHP">
|
|||
|
|
We’ll get proof of this Tuesday night — while also getting a better understanding of what messages do and don’t work to convince voters of these threats.
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>9 ballot measures to watch on Election Day</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="A graphic showing a cute blob with googly eyes looking at a ballot box. " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Xgi20Sb21TVajQjOaaJgSohR9Q4=/244x0:2911x2000/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71594899/towatch.0.jpg"/>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Amanda Northrop/Vox
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Medicaid, marijuana, the minimum wage, and more policy issues on the ballot in the midterm elections.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eG9FJ2">
|
|||
|
|
Filling out a ballot stuffed with granular, detailed policy measures can be enough to make a voter appreciate representative democracy, in which someone else is elected to make these decisions on your behalf.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="tp2Wvm">
|
|||
|
|
Some of the issues voters will have to decipher this year: Should circuit court judges in Howard County, Maryland, be required to serve as judges in the Orphans’ Court? What requirements should California have for kidney dialysis clinics? Quick — what do you say to expanding a Georgia agricultural tax exemption to cover, among other things, dairy products and eggs?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="EIksXm">
|
|||
|
|
On Election Day, voters will weigh in on a total of 137 state ballot measures, policy questions put directly to the voters rather than settled by legislatures or the executive branch. They aren’t evenly distributed: 13 states have no ballot measures at all, while in Alabama, Arizona, and Colorado, voters are wrestling with at least 10 different propositions. There are even ballot measures <em>about</em> ballot measures, where voters are being asked if it should be harder to make policy this way in the first place.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="y344Yo">
|
|||
|
|
The effects of most ballot measures, of course, are usually limited to states voting for them. But they’re still worth watching. Ballot measures can be a path forward for policies that state legislators won’t touch on their own (like the success of marijuana legalization campaigns). A successful ballot measure in one state can lead to a cascade of similar campaigns in the coming years (as has happened with Medicaid expansion, marijuana legalization, minimum wage, and more). Ballot measures matter for the same reason that they can sometimes be frustrating: They’re a direct opportunity for voters to determine policy on their own.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nJw6w2">
|
|||
|
|
This year, as results roll in, here are nine ballot measures to watch, why they matter, and what we know about where voters stand. One caveat to keep in mind: Ballot measures are typically polled infrequently, if at all, so there could still be election night surprises.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="DbaDNA">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>1) Medicaid expansion in South Dakota</strong>
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nlUxka">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>Also known as: </strong>South Dakota Constitutional Amendment D
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JFMCeT">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>A “yes” vote means: </strong>If the amendment passes, anybody making less than 133 percent of the federal poverty level (about $18,000 for an individual or $36,900 for a family of four) would qualify for Medicaid coverage.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="I4vOBC">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What’s at stake:</strong> Since 2017, voters in six states have directly voted to <a href="https://www.vox.com/ad/18307627/medicaid-expansion-states-income-requirements">expand Medicaid</a>, making more low-income adults eligible for free public health coverage. South Dakota could become the seventh. Expansion would cover an estimated <a href="https://www.healthinsurance.org/medicaid/south-dakota/">45,000 South Dakotans</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Fx6hHH">
|
|||
|
|
Why does Medicaid expansion keep finding success with red-state voters, if not their elected representatives? Three reasons, people familiar with the campaigns say: hearing from neighbors who will benefit, bringing federal tax dollars back to the state, and protecting the solvency of rural hospitals and health clinics. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBuC6-HuzPE">One of the ads</a> running in South Dakota features a farmer who says he wants to keep his family farm running but can’t afford health care right now.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3zCmde">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What the polls say: </strong>Nationally, polling on all ballot measures — including this one — tends to be pretty scant, but an <a href="https://emersoncollegepolling.com/south-dakota-2022-majority-of-voters-support-governor-noem-for-re-election/">Emerson College poll in mid-October</a> found that 51 percent of likely voters planned to vote in favor of the measure, with another 28 percent undecided.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bwOj1q">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>Read more: </strong><a href="https://www.vox.com/health-care/2022/9/30/23377495/medicaid-expansion-states-south-dakota-ballot-initiative">Republican states keep refusing to expand Medicaid — until you ask their voters</a> —<em>Dylan Scott</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="r03hL7">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>2) Abortion in Michigan</strong>
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ogOFM6">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>On the ballot as: </strong>Ballot Proposal 3
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ETBeRs">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>A “yes” vote means: </strong>Adding an amendment to the Michigan constitution to “provide that every individual has a right to reproductive freedom,” including decisions related to pregnancy, prenatal care, contraception, childbirth, and abortion. The state legislature could regulate abortion after viability, with exceptions for the physical and mental health of the pregnant person.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="8QfjhZ">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What’s at stake:</strong> Abortion rights are at stake up and down the ballot in Michigan. If Republicans win back the governor’s mansion and maintain control of the state legislature, they could pass new restrictions on the procedure — but amending the state constitution to provide for a right to reproductive freedom would be a bulwark against those restrictions. The Republican candidate for governor, Tudor Dixon, has said that she would <a href="https://www.9and10news.com/2022/09/05/tudor-dixon-speaks-on-abortion-will-support-decision-by-voters/">respect the results</a> of the vote on the measure, even though she personally opposes abortion.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="8ge4tf">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What the polls say: </strong>A late October <a href="https://www.clickondetroit.com/decision-2022/2022/11/01/poll-where-michigan-voters-stand-on-3-ballot-proposals-1-week-before-election/">poll</a> by the Detroit News and WDIV found that 55 percent of voters supported the amendment, down from 61 percent earlier in the month. The margin of error was 4 percent.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iGtVSB">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>Elsewhere: </strong>California and Vermont are also voting on state constitutional amendments to protect reproductive freedom or autonomy. In Kentucky, voters could amend the constitution to state that it <em>doesn’t</em> include a right to abortion. —<em>Nicole Narea</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="ED03j7">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>3) Marijuana legalization in North Dakota</strong>
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="m1tAaY">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>On the ballot as: </strong>Statutory Measure 2
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bonjgc">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>A “yes” vote means: </strong>People over 21 could legally use marijuana and legally possess up to 1 ounce of the drug, and North Dakota would license up to seven marijuana cultivation facilities and 18 marijuana retailers.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QDKpFv">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What’s at stake: </strong>In the decade since recreational marijuana ballot measures began succeeding at the ballot box, they’ve failed only a few times — and one of those failures was in North Dakota in 2018, when an attempt to legalize recreational marijuana was roundly defeated. Nearly 60 percent of voters said no to the measure.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LoRh7A">
|
|||
|
|
Now North Dakota (along with Missouri, where a legalization measure was also defeated in 2018) is trying again. This time, according to the Associated Press, the pro-legalization side is better-funded and a major opponent in 2018 isn’t jumping into the race.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5ufiWL">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>Elsewhere: </strong>Missouri (where legalization also failed in 2018), Maryland, Arkansas, and South Dakota (where a successful legalization ballot measure was overturned by the state Supreme Court) are also voting to legalize pot this year. —<em>Libby Nelson</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="YHQ5EV">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>4) A constitutional right to collective bargaining in Illinois</strong>
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aUsHBy">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>On the ballot as: </strong>Illinois Amendment 1
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9V4FPD">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>A “yes” vote means: </strong>Amending the Illinois constitution to include the right to collectively bargain and ban “right-to-work” laws, which allow workers to be exempted from dues for union representation.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eC51G5">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What’s at stake: </strong>Other states have constitutional protections for collective bargaining rights, but Illinois would be the first where voters affirm them via ballot measure. Less than five years ago, the state had a Republican governor who prioritized weakening organized labor: former Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner promoted “right-to-work zones” — urging local towns or counties to vote on whether workers should have to pay dues when represented by a union.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FLPyNK">
|
|||
|
|
When Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker was elected in 2018, he quickly signed a law banning “right-to-work zones.” But union advocates say they don’t want to keep playing ping-pong with each administration, and see the Illinois constitution as a more sturdy vehicle for ensuring worker rights.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GAduDp">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What the polls say: </strong>For the amendment to pass, either 60 percent of people voting on the amendment must vote “yes,” or 50 percent of all ballots cast in the election (including ballots where voters left the question blank) must include a “yes” vote. A late October <a href="https://www.wcia.com/news/poll-illinois-democrats-maintain-large-leads-in-race-for-governor-u-s-senate-sec-of-state-comptroller-treasurer/">poll</a> from The Hill, Emerson College, and WGN-TV found 54 percent of voters in favor.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="y1xRLS">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>Elsewhere: </strong>At the other end of the labor rights spectrum, Tennessee is asking voters whether to codify right-to-work laws in the state constitution (Amendment 1).
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="KPVK4y">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>Read more: </strong><a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/9/29/23366621/right-to-work-union-labor-illinois-tennessee">Two states, two visions for the future of labor</a> —<em>Rachel Cohen</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="sI92s0">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>5) Limiting medical debt in Arizona</strong>
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="daLTDC">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>On the ballot as: </strong>Proposition 209
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JXrtSG">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>A “yes” vote means:</strong> Capping the interest rates that can be charged for medical debt at 3 percent, and limiting debt collectors’ ability to seize a person’s house, belongings, automobile, or wages if they owe money for medical services.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="o96L1l">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What’s at stake: </strong>National groups that focus on medical debt issues are watching the Arizona initiative closely. It is undeniably in the weeds — fixed interest rates and rules governing wage garnishment are not exactly bumper sticker material — and yet if it succeeds at the ballot box, it could open up a new avenue for tackling medical debt outside of the conventional legislative process.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GOoa7a">
|
|||
|
|
Estimates of the number of Americans with medical debt vary considerably, but recent figures from the Kaiser Family Foundation put the number at <a href="https://www.kff.org/report-section/kff-health-care-debt-survey-main-findings/">41 percent of all US adults</a>. One in 10 adults owed more than $5,000 for medical or dental services. The people who carry medical debt <a href="https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/the-burden-of-medical-debt-in-the-united-states/#Share%20of%20adults%20who%20have%20more%20than%20%24250%20in%20medical%20debt,%20by%20demographic,%202019">tend to have</a> lower incomes, poorer health, and higher rates of disability, and they are more likely to be Black. Medical debt negatively affects mental and physical health, too, due to stress and people skipping care for fear of the cost.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WfQ3dv">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What the polls say: </strong>Nothing. Although Arizona’s governor and Senate races have been polled extensively, those surveys haven’t asked about ballot measures.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="HTIvSN">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>Read more: </strong><a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/23/23413174/arizona-ballot-proposition-209-medical-debt-relief">A wonky Arizona ballot measure could unlock a new path to easing medical debt</a> —<em>DS</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="4EL8X4">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>6) Killing the partisan primary in Nevada</strong>
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pyMJ61">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>On the ballot as: </strong>Question 3
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kBvCwc">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>A “yes” vote means:</strong> An overhaul of the state’s election system that would effectively kill the partisan primary, creating a nonpartisan primary, from which the top five candidates of any party would emerge to the general election. The general election would then be conducted under <a href="https://www.vox.com/22443775/ranked-choice-voting-explained-new-york-strategy">ranked-choice voting</a> (which lets people vote for multiple candidates, ranked in order of their preference).
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ccVtrb">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What’s at stake: </strong>The proposal’s backers say the idea — if it spreads — could help fix American politics by weakening the forces of partisanship, polarization, and extremity. The two parties, they believe, have become captured by their bases’ most extreme elements, who can discipline anyone breaking from the party line through a primary challenge.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wCtbVk">
|
|||
|
|
These reforms probably wouldn’t live up to all their supporters’ ambitions — few reforms do. But they would present a clear path by which politicians of both parties disfavored by the party bases could make it to the general election.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jcG8Z4">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>Elsewhere: </strong>Other states are considering changes to voting laws. Michigan could add expanded absentee and mail-in voting to its constitution, and Connecticut could add in-person early voting. Nebraska and Arizona are voting on new voter ID requirements.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Jjw8UZ">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>Read more: </strong><a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23412858/nevada-question-3-final-five-voting-katherine-gehl">The plan to save America by killing the partisan primary</a> —<em>Andrew Prokop</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="fjkEQ9">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>7) A surtax to build electric vehicle infrastructure in California</strong>
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hm1C7s">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>On the ballot as: </strong>Proposition 30
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TZd1CO">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>A “yes” vote means: </strong>Raising taxes 1.75 percent on income over $2 million, and spending the estimated $3.5 to $5 billion it would raise on electric vehicle infrastructure and combating wildfires.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eBLTXP">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What’s at stake: </strong>Transportation accounts for <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/california-moves-accelerate-100-new-zero-emission-vehicle-sales-2035">50 percent</a> of the state’s pollution. California has set a timeline to phase out new gas and diesel cars and light trucks <a href="https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/">in the next 15 years</a>, and the state’s budget for programs to cut transportation emissions would grow if the ballot measure passes.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5NH3YH">
|
|||
|
|
The ballot measure has created <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-10-07/2020-california-election-proposition-30-voters">some odd alliances</a>. The ride-sharing company Lyft has provided the vast majority of the funding to pass the measure, at $45 million, because its investment in electric vehicles would help the company meet the state’s new requirements. The measure has <a href="https://yeson30.org/about/">other supporters,</a> including public health and environmental groups like the American Lung Association and Union of Concerned Scientists.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="KZbylW">
|
|||
|
|
The <a href="https://votenoprop30.com/">opposition</a> to prop 30 is made up of a set of ultra-wealthy individuals, but also Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, who calls it a corporate giveaway to Lyft. Timber companies, curiously, are also against the measure, spending more than $1 million to defeat it, though it’s <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/07/timber-industry-and-firefighters-on-opposite-sides-of-california-ballot-fight-00060862">not clear</a> to anyone exactly why.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="UTGMDg">
|
|||
|
|
One fear that opponents of the measure raise is that it might lead to some of these wealthy taxpayers seeking other ways to reduce their taxes or just leaving the state. But no one can exactly predict how the ultra-wealthy will respond. Most analyses show more lower-income people <a href="https://calmatters.org/california-divide/2020/01/not-the-golden-state-anymore-middle-and-low-income-people-leaving-california/">leaving the state</a> because of unaffordability.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="VRHrz6">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What the polls say: </strong>A mid-October poll from the Public Policy Institute of California found only 41 percent of voters in favor with 7 percent undecided, with a dramatic drop in support coinciding with Newsom appearing in commercials opposing the measure. —<em>Rebecca Leber</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="fN8L3d">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>8) Dedicated funding for pre-K in New Mexico </strong>
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LRxVCf">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>On the ballot as:</strong> Constitutional Amendment 1
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aU5cb3">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>A “yes” vote means:</strong> Authorizing<strong> </strong>lawmakers to draw new money from a state sovereign wealth fund to provide a dedicated funding stream for universal preschool and child care, and bolstering <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/human-services/home-visiting-improving-outcomes-for-children635399078.aspx#:~:text=and%20Families%20Program-,What%20is%20Home%20Visiting%3F,prevent%20child%20abuse%20and%20neglect.">home-visiting programs</a> for new parents.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kkhx5M">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What’s at stake: </strong>More than a quarter of New Mexico’s children under 5 <a href="https://www.abqjournal.com/2518875/low-literacy-linked-to-new-mexicos-poverty.html#:~:text=The%20rate%20is%20even%20higher,four%20was%20%2426%2C500%20a%20year.)">live in poverty</a>, one of the highest rates in the nation. The state has long ranked <a href="https://www.abqjournal.com/2522876/new-mexico-slips-to-50th-in-child-well-being.html">at the bottom</a> of the Annie E. Casey Foundation’s national Kids Count project — an annual ranking for child well-being based on 16 indicators. Activists are hoping their efforts can serve as a model for other states as well as signal to the federal government that child care is not just needed but politically popular.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="z9CX1T">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What the polls say:</strong> A poll sponsored by the <a href="https://www.abqjournal.com/2529481/education-amendment-gets-bipartisan-backing-ex-the-ballot-question-w.html">Albuquerque Journal</a> in August found that 69 percent of the state’s likely voters backed the amendment, and just 15 percent opposed it. A more recent poll led by Public Policy Polling in October <a href="https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2022/10/11/majority-of-voters-back-tapping-land-grant-permanent-fund/">found 51 percent of voters backed</a> the amendment, with 26 percent opposed and 23 percent reportedly unsure.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="T9vL9k">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/18/23404090/new-mexico-midterms-child-care-early-childhood-prek">New Mexico could vote to make pre-K a universal right</a> —<em>RC</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="eXFJqV">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>9) A higher minimum wage in Nebraska</strong>
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wAEL7j">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>On the ballot as: </strong>Initiative 433
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BkMUyF">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>A “yes”</strong> <strong>vote means: </strong>Gradually increasing the state’s minimum wage of $9 to $15 by January 2026.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vo9Ldd">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What’s at stake: </strong>Minimum wage hikes have a successful track record at the ballot box‚ including in Nebraska. In 2014, the state voted to raise its minimum wage from $7.25 to $9, the first time the state had offered a higher minimum wage than the federal floor, with nearly 60 percent of voters in favor of raising the wage.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="8LsCQn">
|
|||
|
|
The national “fight for $15” — the push for a higher minimum wage — has had some real success, getting nine states to either raise their minimum wage to $15 or commit to doing so. But over the decade since the campaign began, inflation has eroded the gains: To get the buying power of a $15 minimum wage in 2012, the year the campaign began, would require a minimum wage of near $20. It’s worth noting, too, that due to an extremely low unemployment rate in Nebraska, minimum-wage establishments like fast food restaurants have typically been paying higher wages in recent months.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="duqWaM">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>What the polls say: </strong>A late September <a href="https://www.neilanstrategygroup.com/_files/ugd/4093a6_67f88b0f48ab44a198560203f11ed866.pdf">poll</a> found 55 percent of voters in favor. —<em>LN</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="CYDQRn">
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>Democrats limp behind Republicans on the messaging game</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="Biden, Obama, Senate candidate Fetterman attend rally in Philadelphia" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FQ6ZxWIgg9kt2Jq5VuHI5DsLXJI=/440x0:7512x5304/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71593121/1244536633.0.jpg"/>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
The GOP has turned to their standards, crime and the economy, to rally voters.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wUFUwO">
|
|||
|
|
Democrats’ chances of midterm victory have dwindled as many Republican candidates have <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/11/04/last-minute-messaging-for-the-midterms/">hammered home messaging around crime and the economy</a>, while Democrats have largely relied on the fizzling issue of protecting abortion rights and the somewhat abstract concept of protecting democracy.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TzgqIp">
|
|||
|
|
While those issues appeal to many Democratic voters — abortion in particular was potent during August primaries, just after the Supreme Court overruled <em>Roe v. Wade — </em>Republicans’ focus on inflation and crime rates seem to be resonating with their base as well as with some independents.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="d32rNu">
|
|||
|
|
Crime seems to be particularly emotionally resonant with voters — older, conservative voters, yes, but among liberals as well, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/03/us/midterm-elections-republicans-crime.html">the New York Times</a>’s Julie Bosman, Jack Healy, and Campbell Robertson reported on Thursday. Though national statistics paint a complicated picture, violent crime rates have risen overall since 2020, according to a July report from <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/myths-and-realities-understanding-recent-trends-violent-crime">the Brennan Center for Justice</a>. However, violent crime spikes in 2020 were just as likely in Republican jurisdictions as in Democratic ones, that report found.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zsuiw3">
|
|||
|
|
Nonetheless, Republican candidates in many races have been able to capitalize on their opponents’ support for calls to defund the police in the wake of George Floyd’s murder by Derek Chauvin, as well as support for bail reform policies. New York GOP gubernatorial candidate <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-04/gop-seizes-on-bail-reform-as-weapon-to-bash-democrats-on-crime">Lee Zeldin</a>, for example, has come from behind in a Democratic stronghold by hammering Democrats on bail reform enacted in 2020, even though <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/myths-and-realities-understanding-recent-trends-violent-crime">data shows that those policies are not responsible for the spike in violent crime</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MSPaJ2">
|
|||
|
|
But according to the Post’s analysis, Republicans have devoted the most time and treasure to the economy, and particularly inflation.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FUckbm">
|
|||
|
|
“There does seem to be the classic midterm fundamentals at play, but Democrats are trying to reorient the campaigns and the elections around favorable issues to them,” like abortion and democracy, Michael Bitzer, a politics professor at Catawba College, said. “Republicans have kind of a set playbook,” he said — tying Democratic candidates to President Joe Biden, and attacking them on inflation, crime, and immigration.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Dt3ZPX">
|
|||
|
|
“That has become the standardized Republican playbook at this point,” Bitzer said, “but for Democrats, they’re trying to utilize other themes and other policies that, perhaps, are geared specifically to their base.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="DGQYgZ">
|
|||
|
|
Democrats rely on abortion, democracy, and celebrity to push through
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PUETcW">
|
|||
|
|
Perhaps hoping to pick up independents, some Democrats have rushed to parry those attacks, with candidates including Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the Senate, touting their “tough on crime” records. <a href="https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/#/viewer/5334b2c5-a666-49aa-afa3-caa4c305fcd0/">Cortez Masto enlisted a police chief’s support in a recent advertisement</a>; Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is running against Mehmet Oz in that state’s senate race, recently campaigned on his criminal justice bona fides at a senior center on Friday, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/us/politics/crime-midterms-ballot-democrats.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-2022-midterms&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_1&block=storyline_top_links_recirc">the New York Times reported</a>.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ZhTVj3">
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Fetterman, whose health has <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3721362-obama-says-fettermans-stroke-did-not-change-his-values-his-heart-his-fight/">become a flashpoint</a> in the campaign <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mehmet-oz-2022-midterm-elections-health-business-stroke-cd5e3188b74933566ba5a8f95b2c426f">following a stroke in May</a>, told voters that as mayor of Braddock, Pennsylvania, he “was proud to work with our police departments, and funding the police.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="p4yXRO">
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“I was like, ‘Where was this the whole campaign?’” Miles Coleman, an elections expert at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, told Vox.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="dnn1Tm">
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Democrats are also behind on messages about the economy, although polling suggests that voters from both parties have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/05/politics/voters-issues-economy-midterms-2022/index.html">serious concerns about</a> inflation, which continues to affect consumer goods as interest rates also creep up. Polls from CNN conducted in late October show that inflation and the economy would be the most important issue for 51 percent of likely voters when considering their congressional votes. In that poll, 71 percent of registered Republicans said the economy and inflation was the most important issue to them, whereas only 27 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents said the same.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="KiEE9C">
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President Joe Biden touted Democrats’ economic accomplishments and promised to crack down on oil companies posting record profits while consumers pay higher prices at the pumps <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-laud-democrats-high-tech-gains-visit-californias-viasat-2022-11-04/">during a campaign stop in California this week</a>. Biden and other Democratic Party stars like former Presidents Barack Obama and <a href="https://twitter.com/KathyHochul/status/1589014292895916032">Bill Clinton</a>, as well as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stumped on candidates’ behalf to get out the vote.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="DcQJwP">
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“We have to keep in mind that these rallies are less about persuasion and more about turnout,” Coleman told Vox. In other words, trotting out Obama in Pennsylvania likely won’t change an independent voter’s mind, but it could be effective in making the state’s Democratic base more energized to vote.
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</p>
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Even celebrities, including Oprah and <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkRuffalo/status/1588536256388300800">Mark Ruffalo</a>, have been deployed to help shore up lagging numbers.<strong> </strong>Many of those surrogates, like <em>Top Chef </em>host <a href="https://twitter.com/PadmaLakshmi/status/1588590685015244801">Padma Lakshmi</a>, focus on issues like abortion rights and defending democracy against Republican candidates who promote the conspiracy theory that former President Donald Trump won the 2020 election.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5m8dan">
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Abortion as an issue peaked this summer, soon after the Supreme Court decided the <em>Dobbs v. Jackson</em> case and overturned the federal right to abortion. But months later, it’s not as galvanizing an issue as it was, as <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/5/23440890/democrats-blue-state-republicans-midterms">Vox’s Ben Jacobs wrote Saturday</a>:
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</p>
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<blockquote>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="k7aLKb">
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Democrats thought focusing on abortion rights would pay off in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s <em>Dobbs </em>decision in June reversing <em>Roe v. Wade,</em> particularly after they won special elections in upstate New York and Alaska. However, in states where abortion rights are protected under state law, the issue hasn’t resonated with voters.
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</p>
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</blockquote>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="B680yS">
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“There was a narrative at one point that this was a <em>Roe v. Wade</em> election,” Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) told <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/24/us/politics/democrats-midterms-economy.html">the New York Times</a>. “I never thought it was going to be that simple.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wJQwNT">
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The other major issue that Democrats, and particularly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/us/politics/transcript-biden-speech-democracy.html">Biden</a>, have been focusing on, is protecting elections and the democratic process in the face of an aggressive, anti-democratic campaign of election denialism on the part of Trump, his allies in the Republican Party, and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-04/kari-lake-s-election-denial-in-arizona-could-shape-2024-election">the candidates he is endorsing</a>. Trump and his ilk have spread conspiracy theories about voter fraud, prompting <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/30/23431048/poll-watchers-voting-intimidation">some of his followers to engage in vigilantism</a> and potentially intimidating voters. There have also <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/11/5/23441858/violence-stochastic-terror-american-politics-trump-pelosi">been incidents of actual or planned politically motivated violence</a> in recent weeks, which create an atmosphere of unease and fear around politics.
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</p>
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<h3 id="MeKzXN">
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We can’t know what will happen until the results are in
|
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vqYHVl">
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“I’ve been describing this election as kind of a classic midterm election because it is, by all accounts a referendum on [a] president, a referendum on the Democrats who currently control Congress,” Bitzer said, “but there seems to be an undercurrent of something going on that is making this a little bit different — maybe it’s the sense of deep division and polarization has been getting a lot of people engaged and involved.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gbzbo4">
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<a href="https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1589281189944504320?s=20&t=hx9Vw8gsdzJttdbJhC59lw">Early voting numbers</a>, as well as a look at the primaries this summer, suggests that turnout will be robust, Coleman told Vox. “Nothing to me suggests that this will be a low-turnout midterm.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0GAICy">
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Of course, there could be surprises, as <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/5/23442148/iowa-chuck-grassley-utah-mike-lee-evan-mcmullin-washington-patty-murray">Vox’s Li Zhou wrote Saturday</a>. Though this cycle’s Senate toss-up races — those in Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — have been getting significant media coverage, candidates in Iowa and Utah are making waves against Republican incumbents.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aUlgb4">
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As of now, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/">polling suggests </a>that Republicans will win back the House of Representatives, while <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/">control of the Senate is neck-and-neck</a>. But polls are thermometers, not crystal balls — they indicate pubic sentiment at a given time but can’t predict the future.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="SehydX">
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Vox reporters Rachel M. Cohen, Dylan Scott, and Li Zhou laid out <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23435135/2022-midterms-congress-republican-democrat">three possible scenarios</a> for the midterms: Republicans could take just the House, they could sweep both chambers, or Democrats could retain control. In all three scenarios, Biden would still face challenges pushing through his agenda:
|
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</p>
|
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<blockquote>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uLwER3">
|
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A Republican-dominated Congress could create something like gridlock, leading to potential battles over the debt ceiling and government funding and giving the Senate the power to hold up Biden’s nominees. A split legislature, with Republicans controlling only the House of Representatives, would put a focus on investigations and, potentially, lead to a vote to impeach Biden. And if Democrats retain control, they’ll face many of the same challenges they did over the last two years.
|
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</p>
|
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</blockquote>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="8XR3ex">
|
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|
The outcome of the midterm elections, whatever they are, won’t change the challenge of governing in a deeply, existentially divided country — one in which the two major parties, or at least their elected representatives, seem to be living in two separate realities. And Tuesday’s elections, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/06/briefing/midterms-us-elections-house-senate.html">New York Times’s Astead Herndon wrote on Sunday, will likely reveal further polarization.</a>
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="v6ZjSx">
|
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“We should not assume we are at the floor of division,” Herndon wrote. “We are going to get lower.”
|
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|
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</p></li>
|
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|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
|
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|
<ul>
|
|||
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|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Barcelona drawn with Man United in Europa League playoffs</strong> - Barcelona dropped out of the Champions League and will now play Manchester United in the Europa League play-offs on February 16 (1st leg) and February 23 (2nd leg)</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Illustrious Ruler, Lebua, Rubirosa and Bienfaisant impress</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>UCL Round of 16 draw | Liverpool handed Madrid final rematch, PSG face Bayern</strong> - Manchester City will play RB Leipzig in the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 and 2021 winners Chelsea also drew German opposition in the shape of Borussia Dortmund</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Dexa excels</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Virat Kohli named ICC player of month for October</strong> - Pakistan all-rounder Nida Dar won in the women's category beating Indians Jemimah Rodrigues and Deepti Sharma</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Project to reduce track curvature between Mysuru and Bengaluru in the pipeline</strong> - This will enable higher speed and reduce journey time between the two cities</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Himachal Pradesh Assembly polls | Probably forgot to fill fuel: Priyanka takes dig at BJP's ‘double engine’ pitch, calls for change in State</strong> - Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra said that if the Congress comes to power it will approve one lakh jobs and return to the old pension scheme in the first cabinet meeting itself</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Suvendu Adhikari urges Centre to send doctors to deal with dengue-hit Bengal</strong> - Leader of the Opposition in the West Bengal Assembly Suvendu Adhikari wrote to Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya stating that the State is “busy hiding the data on deaths and actual dengue cases”</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Congress will not come to power, says Eshwarappa</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>ISRO to move operational activities to NSIL, to focus on R&D, says its Chairman</strong> - The “connection” between the ISRO and scientific organisations in the country need to be scaled up to create greater research and development activities in space technology, Mr. Somanath said.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The agony of not knowing, as Mariupol mass burial sites grow</strong> - Residents described the heartache of not knowing where their family members are buried.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine war: Kyiv Mayor Klitschko warns of evacuations if power lost</strong> - Millions of Ukrainians have intermittently lost electricity and water after Russian air strikes.</p></li>
|
|||
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|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Standoff as Italy stops male migrants from disembarking rescue ships</strong> - Rescue charities brand the actions of Italy’s new right-wing government “illegal”.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>World Cup 2022: 10 European football associations respond to Fifa’s ‘focus on football’ letter</strong> - Ten European football associations including England and Wales say “human rights are universal and apply everywhere” after Fifa asked nations competing at the Qatar World Cup to “now focus on the football”.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>COP27: Rishi Sunak urges global push on ‘clean growth’</strong> - The PM will urge world leaders at the COP27 summit to deliver on promises to tackle global warming.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Megalodon, extinct giant shark, started life in nurseries</strong> - The largest sharks ever seem to have left their young in an unsupervised daycare. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1890509">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The mysteries of the astronaut biome</strong> - How might space travel change the human microbiome, which is linked to so many ailments? - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1895368">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Algorithms quietly run the city of DC—and maybe your hometown</strong> - DC agencies deploy dozens of automated decision systems, often without residents’ knowledge. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1895355">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The 2023 BMW i7 proves a luxury car doesn’t need internal combustion</strong> - The fully electric version of the new 7 Series is the best of the bunch. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1894874">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>How The Wire helped me understand the 2023 BMW 760i xDrive</strong> - A long drive to nowhere remains a good use for an outmoded powertrain. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1895247">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
|
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|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>f(x) walks into a bar.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
|
|||
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<div class="md">
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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|
The bartender says “Sorry, we don’t cater for functions”.
|
|||
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|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Gil-Gandel"> /u/Gil-Gandel </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/yofgk4/fx_walks_into_a_bar/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/yofgk4/fx_walks_into_a_bar/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
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<li><strong>A young man tells his Mom he’s gay</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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|||
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<div class="md">
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
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|
A young man decides that the upcoming holiday is a good time to tell his Mom that he’s gay. He’s in college, making new friends, and will eventually want to bring one of them home to meet the family. He spends the drive home going over the conversation, what he’ll say, what she’ll say, how he’ll answer any questions, that sort of thing. He’s pretty sure she’ll be accepting, but he wants to be prepared. He arrives home, there are plenty of hugs, a nice dinner, and a good nights sleep. The next morning he joins his Mom in the kitchen as she gets the holiday feast ready. He’s sitting at the kitchen table, she’s stirring this, and checking that. It reminds him of holidays when he was young. Finally, he works up his courage and says “Mom, I have something to tell you.” She replies sweetly “What’s that dear?” He’s still a bit nervous, but says “Mom, I’m gay.” She finishes stirring one of the pots, turns to him with her arms crossed, and asks “That means you put other men’s penises in your mouth, doesn’t it?” He’s caught completely off guard. None of his planned scenarios even remotely came close to that question. He stammers, and simply says “Yes, it does.” She then reaches out and bonks him on the head with the spoon, points it at him and says “Then don’t you ever let me hear you complain about my cooking again.” turns and continues with the preparations for the day.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/GuairdeanBeatha"> /u/GuairdeanBeatha </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/yo5m5x/a_young_man_tells_his_mom_hes_gay/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/yo5m5x/a_young_man_tells_his_mom_hes_gay/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>Now that Elon Musk has bought Twitter and laid off half the staff, he’s planning on buying YouTube and Facebook and doing the same with them. To save even more money, he plans on merging the three companies into one…</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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|
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|
…He’s going to call it YouTwitFace.
|
|||
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</p>
|
|||
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|
</div>
|
|||
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<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Tacoma__Crow"> /u/Tacoma__Crow </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/yo0068/now_that_elon_musk_has_bought_twitter_and_laid/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/yo0068/now_that_elon_musk_has_bought_twitter_and_laid/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
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<li><strong>A teacher asked the children in her 3rd-year class, “What do you want to be when you grow up?”</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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Little Johnny answered first. “I want to start out as a S.A.S. officer, go to the Middle East and kill loads of militant Muslims, return as a national hero, then become a billionaire, go to the most expensive clubs, find me the finest nymphomaniac tart, give her a Ferrari, an apartment in Copacabana, a mansion in Paris, a jet to travel throughout Europe, an Infinite Visa Card, loads of cocaine, and all the while banging her like a loose barn door in a hurricane.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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The teacher, shocked, and not knowing what to do with this unfortunate response from little Johnny, decided not to acknowledge what he said and simply tried to continue with the lesson.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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“And how about you, Sarah?”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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“I wanna be Johnny’s tart Miss!”
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</p>
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</div>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Sean_0510"> /u/Sean_0510 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/ynrkmu/a_teacher_asked_the_children_in_her_3rdyear_class/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/ynrkmu/a_teacher_asked_the_children_in_her_3rdyear_class/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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<li><strong>I wish that there was a restaurant named “I don’t care,”</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
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<div class="md">
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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so I’d finally know where my girlfriend was talking about.
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</p>
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</div>
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<!-- SC_ON -->
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/YZXFILE"> /u/YZXFILE </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/yoffdq/i_wish_that_there_was_a_restaurant_named_i_dont/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/yoffdq/i_wish_that_there_was_a_restaurant_named_i_dont/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
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</ul>
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