727 lines
82 KiB
HTML
727 lines
82 KiB
HTML
|
<!DOCTYPE html>
|
|||
|
|
<html lang="" xml:lang="" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head>
|
|||
|
|
<meta charset="utf-8"/>
|
|||
|
|
<meta content="pandoc" name="generator"/>
|
|||
|
|
<meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, user-scalable=yes" name="viewport"/>
|
|||
|
|
<title>07 May, 2022</title>
|
|||
|
|
<style type="text/css">
|
|||
|
|
code{white-space: pre-wrap;}
|
|||
|
|
span.smallcaps{font-variant: small-caps;}
|
|||
|
|
span.underline{text-decoration: underline;}
|
|||
|
|
div.column{display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; width: 50%;}
|
|||
|
|
</style>
|
|||
|
|
<title>Daily-Dose</title><meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" name="viewport"/><link href="styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><link href="../styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><style>*{overflow-x:hidden;}</style><link href="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.css" rel="stylesheet"/><script src="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.js"></script></head>
|
|||
|
|
<body>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Partisanship Is Biden’s Only Choice After the Supreme Court Leak</strong> - With the impending evisceration of Roe v. Wade, the President must contend with the reality of a broken system. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/what-choice-does-joe-biden-have">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Scooping the Supreme Court</strong> - The first Roe v. Wade leaks happened fifty years ago. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/05/16/scooping-the-supreme-court">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>What J. D. Vance’s Victory in the Ohio Republican Primary Means for Trumpism</strong> - The “Hillbilly Elegy” author will be a strong favorite in the race for the U.S. Senate, where he would become one of its youngest and most controversial members. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/what-j-d-vances-victory-in-the-ohio-republican-primary-%20means-for-trumpism">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Radical Life of Kathy Boudin</strong> - She became infamous for her involvement in acts of political violence. Then she found her way out of the abyss. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/postscript/the-radical-life-of-kathy-boudin">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Making New Climate Data from Old Timber</strong> - When an old building is demolished, its construction materials can reveal the secrets of the past. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/making-new-climate-data-from-old-timber">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>The prospects for restoring Roe</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="Protesters hold signs reading, “Forced pregnancy is a crime against humanity,” among others." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/k0fiF0aIRG6PCBuTnqO5Yiie9vo=/20x0:5353x4000/1310x983/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70842709/GettyImages_1395625530.0.jpg"/>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Abortion rights activists attend a rally in front of the US Supreme Court on May 5. Protesters on both sides of the abortion debate continue to demonstrate following the leaked draft of the Court’s potential decision to overturn <em>Roe v. Wade</em>. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
The outlook is grim in the short term. But there are three possible paths over the longer term.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pzxovA">
|
|||
|
|
If the leaked draft Supreme Court opinion <a href="https://www.vox.com/23055298/supreme-court-roe-abortion-rights">overturning <em>Roe v. Wade</em></a> becomes finalized, the prospects for restoring national abortion rights protections in the near term are grim.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2OeShB">
|
|||
|
|
The medium- and longer-term prospects, though, are … still grim, but slightly less so.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="z6cuki">
|
|||
|
|
Justice Samuel Alito’s draft opinion would lift the Court’s prohibition of state laws banning abortion, ending a status quo that has held for nearly 50 years. The Court’s conservative majority looks entrenched, for now. But the political situation can change over time, and in unexpected ways, though it could take years or even decades for the right circumstances to arise.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XrBS7M">
|
|||
|
|
There are three basic scenarios by which <em>Roe</em>’s protections could be restored — none of which are particularly likely, but none of which are outright impossible either.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="KuG0vV">
|
|||
|
|
One goes through the Supreme Court: Future liberal appointees could just, well, put <em>Roe</em> back. A second goes through Congress: A bigger Democratic majority could either overcome the filibuster (if they have 60 votes) or vote to eliminate it with a majority, opening the way to codify <em>Roe</em> in law or even pack the courts.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="8mlE5l">
|
|||
|
|
Both paths require Democrats to win more elections. Appointing any justice will likely require the presidency and Senate control. Passing new laws would require a bigger Senate majority and holding the House as well.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="EmWFHC">
|
|||
|
|
It may sound banal to say, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/03/supreme-
|
|||
|
|
court-roe-v-wade-live/">as President Joe Biden has,</a> that the best hope abortion rights supporters have for restoring <em>Roe</em>’s protections is keeping Democrats in control of the presidency and Congress, with as big majorities as possible. But it’s pretty clearly true.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="W9Lc8A">
|
|||
|
|
It’s also easier said than done. Democrats’ current voter coalition is disadvantaged in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/1/11/22224700/electoral-college-joe-biden-donald-
|
|||
|
|
trump-bias-four-points-one-chart">Electoral College</a> and the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/10/18/22724808/democrats-senate-disadvantage-shor-klein">Senate map</a>. And if new Court appointments or new laws restore <em>Roe</em>, the next time Republicans regain power, they’d have the same tools — they could appoint new justices or even ban abortion nationally if the filibuster is gone.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BzWN5v">
|
|||
|
|
A third scenario, though, would involve a change in the Republican Party. The GOP could calculate, due to a public opinion backlash or electoral defeats, that they need to moderate on abortion.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="taTrnH">
|
|||
|
|
That’s certainly not going to happen in the foreseeable future; it would have to be a long-term transformation. But it’s really the only chance for national abortion protections to be durably reestablished, because their seeming safety over the past 50 years was always illusory so long as the GOP was gunning for them.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="RJw6SR">
|
|||
|
|
Scenario 1: Fill naturally occurring Court vacancies
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="D6NZZn">
|
|||
|
|
<em>Roe</em> is set to be overturned by a majority of five Supreme Court justices, and it could be put back by another majority. To get there, Democrats would have to replace at least one, and probably two, conservative justices with liberal ones.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="STdomg">
|
|||
|
|
The problem is that conservative justices will try not to retire while Democrats are in power. So this path would rely partly on chance (when justices happen to die or become otherwise unable to serve). Yes, these are the grim calculations that the Supreme Court’s lifetime appointments incentivize.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="IGRI2j">
|
|||
|
|
But it’s not entirely chance. It’s also about electoral performance — who holds the presidency and the Senate when justices die or step down. For instance, Thurgood Marshall, a liberal justice appointed in 1967, had hoped to be replaced by a Democratic president. But Republicans won the 1980, 1984, and 1988 elections, he decided his health couldn’t hold out any longer, and in 1991 he was replaced by Justice Clarence Thomas.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Iy9eda">
|
|||
|
|
The more a party wins, the better the odds an unexpected Supreme Court vacancy will arise while they’re in power. This means holding the presidency, and likely nowadays it means holding the Senate too — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s Republican majority blocked President Barack Obama from replacing the late Justice Antonin Scalia.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Smh10o">
|
|||
|
|
Republicans assembled their anti-<em>Roe</em> majority by waiting for these vacancies to arise and acting aggressively when they did. They got Neil Gorsuch confirmed instead of Merrick Garland, made sure Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed before the 2018 midterms could have lost them the Senate, and voted up Amy Coney Barrett just over a month after Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="P8cyTf">
|
|||
|
|
But this is hardly a quick fix — it took nearly 50 years for Republicans to get this five-vote anti-<em>Roe</em> bloc. So Democrats could be waiting a while, too. After Justice Stephen Breyer steps down this summer, there will be no more octogenarians on the Court, and its oldest justices will be Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, who are 73 and 72, respectively.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="UxvnTg">
|
|||
|
|
Democrats can maximize their chances of having power at the right time by holding the presidency and Senate as long as possible, but there’s no guarantee the opportunities will arise any time soon. And the more elections Republicans win — allowing them to replenish their aging conservative justices with younger ones — the further these prospects will recede.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hWwxBA">
|
|||
|
|
Still, things can change quickly. As late as early November 2016, it seemed plausible, and perhaps even likely, that <em>Roe</em> was safe and liberals were on the cusp of their first outright Supreme Court majority in decades. But Trump won, Republicans held the Senate, and Ginsburg died, so here we are.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="LDxbot">
|
|||
|
|
Scenario 2: Act through Congress by abolishing the filibuster
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ws30Zp">
|
|||
|
|
So rather than simply waiting, perhaps forever, the other path is for Democrats to act through Congress by passing new laws. This could be an abortion-specific law codifying <em>Roe</em>’s protections (though that would have to survive this Supreme Court). Or, congressional Democrats could pack the Supreme Court, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/7/2/17513520/court-packing-explained-fdr-roosevelt-new-
|
|||
|
|
deal-democrats-supreme-court">as some progressives want </a>— expanding its size and filling new slots with liberals.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="HaiWqb">
|
|||
|
|
Democrats won’t be able to do either of these right away, though, for the same reason: the Senate’s filibuster rule, and moderate Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema’s insistence on keeping that rule.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="I9Nr5v">
|
|||
|
|
It takes 60 votes to advance legislation through the Senate unless it’s a budgetary bill, which neither of these proposals would be.<strong> </strong>If Democrats managed to regain a 60-vote Senate majority, as they briefly had in 2009 and early 2010, they could overcome the filibuster and pass new laws. (Probably 61 would be needed if Manchin, who is likely not a reliable vote on measures protecting abortion rights, is still around.) But it would be tremendously difficult to win so many seats, especially since the party faces a structural disadvantage in the Senate map.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TJ15uh">
|
|||
|
|
Alternatively, a smaller Democratic majority could deploy what’s known as the “<a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/4/3/15108140/neil-gorsuch-nuclear-option-trump">nuclear option</a>” to change Senate rules and get rid of the filibuster with just their majority (50 votes plus the vice president). But this current Congress has failed to get that done — Manchin and Sinema have refused pressures to do this since their party took power.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="F8eRmC">
|
|||
|
|
Theoretically, if Democrats managed to expand their majority by two more Senate seats, they could move forward with a rules change — unless another moderate suddenly comes down with a case of cold feet. Alternatively, if a future Republican Senate abolishes the filibuster, Democrats would be able to pass abortion protections next time they’re in power.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9n2qv1">
|
|||
|
|
Yet if the filibuster is abolished by either party, Republicans would be able to pass laws with a simple majority when they’re in power, too. They could at the very least reverse any Democratic law establishing abortion protections, and at most try to ban abortion nationwide. If Democrats expand the court, the GOP could expand it further.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="UtMTTD">
|
|||
|
|
So congressional action wouldn’t result in a durable restoration of <em>Roe</em> unless Democrats can manage to keep holding onto Congress. That will prove quite difficult, particularly in the Senate. Democrats have the narrowest possible Senate majority right now, but their voter coalition <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/10/18/22724808/democrats-senate-disadvantage-shor-klein">is not well distributed</a> for the Senate map, where they could well fall into a deep disadvantage in the coming years. Again, their way to maximize their chances of success is by winning more of these elections, but that’s quite difficult.
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="hPTSMo">
|
|||
|
|
Scenario 3: Shift the GOP’s position by winning the war of public opinion
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vV9xGY">
|
|||
|
|
Though abortion rights activists were well aware for years of the danger <em>Roe</em> was in, less-engaged American liberals may have simply taken it for granted, assuming it would be around forever. It had survived for so long, after all, so it would probably keep surviving, right?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FQqwYb">
|
|||
|
|
But this safety was an illusion because abortion rights <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/313094/americans-abortion-views-steady-past-year.aspx">had never won</a> the truly widespread public support it would take to entrench them nationally. Many conservatives continued to argue that abortion was deeply wrong and <em>Roe</em> should be overturned, and one of the country’s two major political parties has been committed to that viewpoint for decades.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aQFL12">
|
|||
|
|
Indeed, <em>Roe</em> was very nearly overturned three decades ago, in 1992, but conservatives on the Court fell one vote short of a majority to do so because moderate Republican-appointed justices voted with their more liberal colleagues. Anti-abortion activists then spent the next three decades trying to make sure that would never happen again. Their success in creating an anti-<em>Roe</em> Court majority certainly wasn’t inevitable — it took a very long time and required a good deal of good luck — but they do now seem to have achieved it.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9tPJNo">
|
|||
|
|
The reality, then, is that even if Democrats do somehow manage to restore <em>Roe</em>’s protections nationally, all that would be subject to reversal the next time Republicans hold power. The Court could swing back and forth based on new appointments. Or, if Democrats eliminate the filibuster and codify <em>Roe</em> or pack the Court, Republicans could reverse those measures or enact further-right measures (say, with a national abortion ban) next time they’re in charge.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4sktra">
|
|||
|
|
The only way to pull out of this spiral would be if anti-abortion activists lose their hold on the Republican Party, and probably on the Republican electorate too. Perhaps a national backlash against the GOP for overreaching on abortion will materialize, and they’ll feel compelled to moderate their position or lose power. Or perhaps even the red-state public, once abortion restrictions are implemented and their effects become clear, will grow convinced they actually aren’t desirable.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9NOt3L">
|
|||
|
|
At the moment, such a scenario seems far-fetched, bordering on impossible. And maybe it is. But in the long term, that’s what would be needed to entrench abortion protections nationally. If a public opinion shift doesn’t happen, <em>Roe</em> protections, even if they are restored, would never truly be safe.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>The abortion provider that Republicans are struggling to stop</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/C35kAowuyChjtBv9rdJW3lbOsVk=/53x0:3600x2660/1310x983/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70842605/GettyImages_1228673171.0.jpg"/>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Dutch physician Rebecca Gomperts, shown here in 2020, founded the nonprofit Aid Access in March 2018 to provide abortion medication to women in the US. | Remko de Waal/ANP/AFP via Getty Images
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
But Silicon Valley could.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2b3lH9">
|
|||
|
|
In 2018, more than two decades after Dutch physician Rebecca Gomperts first became an activist to <a href="https://www.womenonwaves.org/en/">deliver abortion pills around the world</a>, she turned to the United States. For years she had dedicated her life to working in countries where the procedure was illegal, and was firm in her refusal to avoid the US, where safe, legalized access was still available. “I think this is a problem the US has to solve itself,” she <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/31/magazine/the-dawn-of-the-post-clinic-
|
|||
|
|
abortion.html">explained in 2014</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Te6mEX">
|
|||
|
|
But following the election of President Donald Trump, the desperate requests she received from Americans <a href="https://msmagazine.com/2022/02/23/telemedicine-abortion-rebecca-
|
|||
|
|
gomperts-abortion-pills/">went up</a>, and the cost barriers in the US were glaring.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0d9mG1">
|
|||
|
|
So Gomperts launched a new nonprofit organization based in Austria — <a href="https://aidaccess.org/en/">Aid Access</a> — with the goal of providing affordable and accessible abortion services to people in the US.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PN5t1Z">
|
|||
|
|
Over the past four years, Aid Access says it has delivered abortion medication — mifepristone and misoprostol — to <a href="https://msmagazine.com/2022/02/23/telemedicine-abortion-rebecca-gomperts-abortion-pills/">more than 30,000 Americans</a> across all 50 states, including the <a href="https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/slide/state-
|
|||
|
|
restrictions-on-telehealth-abortion/">19 conservative states</a> that currently ban telemedicine abortion.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9qMZZ7">
|
|||
|
|
The organization plays a unique role in the US reproductive rights ecosystem by successfully exploiting legal loopholes that make it easier for an overseas doctor to care for American patients in restrictive<strong> </strong>states — a role that could become even more key if <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/5/3/23055125/roe-v-wade-
|
|||
|
|
abortion-rights-supreme-court-dobbs-v-jackson"><em>Roe</em> v. <em>Wade </em>is struck down</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="37B6Uf">
|
|||
|
|
If the right to an abortion does get overturned, Aid Access staff say they feel confident their services could continue, in the same way they’ve been able to operate in red states that have barred other abortion groups.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="j8aSo2">
|
|||
|
|
So what’s the catch?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hQ50MA">
|
|||
|
|
For now, the biggest one may be the big tech platforms.<strong> </strong>Aid Access needs to spread awareness about its services, and quickly. The pills, when shipped from overseas, can take two to three weeks to arrive, and Aid Access prescribes the two medications up to the first 10 weeks of pregnancy. But because it operates outside the formal US health care system, Aid Access says it has been penalized by search engines and social media giants that have tried to tackle the spread of Covid-19 misinformation.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="p6F0Em">
|
|||
|
|
Aid Access still pops up on Google if you search the organization’s name, but most users had come to the site while searching for terms like “abortion by mail” and “abortion pills.” Following a series of algorithm updates beginning in May 2020, Aid Access says it no longer shows up in top results for general medication abortion searches<strong> </strong>— and that ads from its sister organization, Women on Web, which serves countries all over the world, are frequently<strong> </strong>removed or rejected from Facebook and Instagram for dubious reasons, like “language … that is likely to offend users.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LSZZWE">
|
|||
|
|
Republicans might not be able to stop Aid Access right now, but it appears that Silicon Valley can.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="Dwe2H6">
|
|||
|
|
How Aid Access works
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="HsMKUl">
|
|||
|
|
The Aid Access model goes like this: If you need an abortion, you fill out an <a href="https://aidaccess.org/en/i-need-an-abortion">online consultation</a> form. If you’re early enough in your pregnancy and deemed eligible, then you’re referred to a provider. People living in the country’s more liberal states and Washington, DC, are referred to a US-based provider who fills prescriptions that ship typically in two or three days. For women living in the 31 states that Aid Access counts as having <a href="https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-availability-and-use-of-medication-abortion/">tighter abortion restrictions</a>, Gomperts<strong> </strong>sends the prescriptions to a pharmacist in India, who then mails the pills directly to patients in the US. (<a href="https://msmagazine.com/2022/02/23/telemedicine-abortion-rebecca-
|
|||
|
|
gomperts-abortion-pills/">Aid Access chooses India</a> in part because the country produces regulated, high-quality generics, Gomperts has said.)
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="u1PHAr">
|
|||
|
|
Gomperts and the women she prescribes pills for operate in something of a legal gray area. As a result of being registered to practice medicine in Austria, she is subject to Austrian law, and therefore exempt from specific rules and regulations affecting doctors in the US, like state requirements for ultrasounds or 72-hour waiting periods. And while personal imports of drugs from other countries are <a href="https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/fda-basics/it-legal-me-personally-import-drugs">usually against US law</a>, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/european-doctor-prescribes-abortion-pills-
|
|||
|
|
u-s-women-over-internet-n1012676">has said</a> it generally avoids going after individuals who bring medicines in for personal use.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uJZ4jW">
|
|||
|
|
It’s a model Gomperts developed first in 2005 with <a href="https://www.womenonweb.org/en/">Aid Access’s older sister organization</a>. Since its founding, Women on Web says it has delivered abortion pills to more than 100,000 women across the world, reaching pregnant patients in countries with restrictive laws, like<strong> </strong>Sudan, Hungary, and Brazil. In 2018, Gomperts set up Aid Access under a separate corporate structure, to serve the US while protecting Women on Web from the aggressive US anti-abortion movement.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/Qu9WQcpmH9rHizuHp5-PW2YwUHg=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23442344/GettyImages_964540720.jpg"/> <cite>Charles McQuillan/Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Women on Web and Aid Access founder Rebecca Gomperts, second from right, leads supporters in a chant as the abortion rights campaign group ROSA holds a rally in Londonderry, Northern Ireland, in</figcaption></figure></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<ol start="2018" type="1">
|
|||
|
|
<li>The group had earlier risked arrest after distributing abortion pills from a tour bus.
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="p2QeMj">
|
|||
|
|
Activists note that medication abortion <a href="https://www.prochoiceamerica.org/wp-
|
|||
|
|
content/uploads/2017/01/2.-Mifepristone-is-a-Safe-Choice.pdf">is far safer</a> than many painkillers easily purchased over the counter, and the World Health Organization <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-
|
|||
|
|
sheets/detail/abortion">maintains that individuals can self-administer the drugs</a> without direct supervision of a health care provider during their first trimester. New <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667193X22000175"><em>Lancet</em> research</a> published in February affirmed the safety of the Aid Access model, which also provides the medication at <a href="https://aidaccess.org/en/i-need-an-abortion">significantly lower</a> cost than <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/roe-v-wade-abortion-cost/">in-person surgical abortions</a> or even the <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/22968993/abortion-pills-mail-medication-fda-texas">new crop of US startups</a> like <a href="https://www.heyjane.co/">Hey Jane</a>, <a href="https://abortionondemand.org/">Abortion on Demand</a>, and <a href="https://carafem.org/cost/">Carafem</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QPfPr2">
|
|||
|
|
Aid Access says its work will continue in a post-<em>Roe </em>environment, and that requests for pills and information <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/abortion-pill-provider-sees-spike-us-interest-after-
|
|||
|
|
scotus-leak-2022-05-04/">tripled</a> in the wake of Monday’s leaked <em>Roe </em>opinion draft.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="t3Yhjf">
|
|||
|
|
Christie Pitney, a midwife who fills prescriptions for Aid Access patients in California, Massachusetts, Oregon, and DC, said that while patients in some states <a href="https://www.vox.com/23013308/supreme-court-roe-wade-
|
|||
|
|
abortion-legal-oklahoma-dobbs-jackson-womens-health">with trigger bans</a> may have to switch from US-based providers like Pitney to Gomperts, Aid Access will keep serving them. “We’ll still be here,” she said.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RqYPwz">
|
|||
|
|
“We’re pretty nonplussed, to be honest,” Pitney told Vox. “I don’t see a route [to stopping us]. It’s not to say that it’s impossible, I just don’t see a route for politicians to eliminate access to Aid Access; they just don’t have the jurisdiction to criminalize an international doctor.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GVOEhA">
|
|||
|
|
Other international doctors could also join Aid Access if <em>Roe </em>were struck down to help Gomperts prescribe the abortion pills, though she told Vox that thus far she has not been approached by any physicians.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="4RZrPo">
|
|||
|
|
A struggle for internet traffic
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hgEJnw">
|
|||
|
|
Despite the unique strategy Aid Access and Women on Web deploy, over the past two years, the organizations say they have been fighting against search engine algorithms that deprioritize their services, and opaque social media policies that limit or block their posts.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="tt9Q6m">
|
|||
|
|
Earlier this year, <a href="https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2022/01/11/choice-by-mail/">in an interview</a> with the New York Review of Books, Gomperts said that “the algorithms of Google are suddenly becoming the de facto gatekeeper to access to safe abortion services in the US.” When Google set out to correct Covid-19 misinformation and started elevating more health sites that were officially government-sanctioned, Gomperts said it had the side effect of demoting sites like hers.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nfuohg">
|
|||
|
|
Searches like “abortion by mail” and “online abortion” no longer led users to Gomperts’s groups, she says. Women on Web, for example, says it<strong> </strong>saw a 90 percent drop in daily global<strong> </strong>traffic after Google rolled out a new update on May 4, 2020. A subsequent update brought back some of what had disappeared, doubling its now-minuscule<strong> </strong>traffic, but then a third algorithmic update six months later took 40 percent of what remained. “We’re back to pretty low,” said Venny Ala-Siurua, the executive director.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5Ovgow">
|
|||
|
|
Ala-Siurua told Vox that deprioritization in internet search results remains one of their biggest barriers. Google “keep[s] pushing up traditional health providers, brick-and-mortar clinics, but they’re missing what’s happening in the digital world today,” she said. “The algorithm is not neutral. It was built and written usually by white men in the Bay Area who might not really be in tune with what the needs are here.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="443bRC">
|
|||
|
|
Aid Access isn’t alleging Google is intentionally restricting access to its site specifically, but Gomperts told the New York Review of Books that they might eventually launch a lawsuit over this. “The algorithms are making it much harder to find the places where you can obtain these medicines,” she said. “That is what people don’t realize: It’s Google that is filtering people’s access to information.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3N45gB">
|
|||
|
|
Lara Levin, a Google spokesperson, told Vox that their search ranking systems “are designed to return relevant results from the most reliable sources, and on critical topics related to health matters, we place an even greater emphasis on signals of reliability.” Levin added that no update is made to benefit or penalize any one site. “We give site owners and content producers ample notice of relevant updates along with <a href="https://developers.google.com/search/blog/2019/08/core-updates">actionable guidance</a>,” she said.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="IxQGNl">
|
|||
|
|
The Facebook and Instagram accounts for Women on Web have had spending restrictions placed on them for more than a year, after their ads were flagged or hidden by other users who oppose their work or who found their content “to be offensive … violent, [or] about a sensitive topic.” Some of their ads for medication abortion have also been rejected, with rationales like “Ads must not promote the sale or use of unsafe supplements, as determined by Facebook in its sole discretion<em>.” </em>One<em> </em>Women on Web Instagram post that read, “You can now order abortion pills BEFORE you are pregnant,” and included a link for advanced provision was taken down for not following “community guidelines.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="c-float-right">
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/BZ-XXZu5FXUZZpyQqOU0Zqs42AI=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23442341/Abortion_censorship___VOX.jpg"/> <cite>Courtesy of Women on Web</cite></p>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
A Women on Web Instagram post that was taken down this spring for not following “community guidelines.”
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="v1lF8V">
|
|||
|
|
Facebook did not respond to a request for comment on the Women on Web ads specifically, but pointed Vox to company policies from Meta (Facebook and Instagram’s parent company) including ad prohibitions for <a href="https://transparency.fb.com/policies/community-standards/regulated-goods/">direct sales of prescription drugs</a>, and for ads promoting <a href="https://www.facebook.com/policies/ads/prohibited_content/adult_products_or_services">reproductive health products or services</a> to people under age 18. In November 2021, Facebook also announced it would <a href="https://www.facebook.com/business/news/removing-certain-ad-targeting-options-and-expanding-our-ad-
|
|||
|
|
controls?ref=search_new_0">remove ad targeting options</a> for topics people may perceive as “sensitive” — including health-related causes.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="N9CIPT">
|
|||
|
|
But at least one of the examples Women on Web showed Vox — the one about ordering pills before you’re pregnant — wasn’t an ad. It was a regular post to the group’s Instagram profile that they didn’t pay to amplify or target.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Wep1av">
|
|||
|
|
The algorithmic battles playing out reflect broader challenges<strong> </strong>faced by tech companies, which are under pressure to crack down on misinformation and propaganda and to take clearer stands on polarized political issues that users may be researching. The last few years have also brought greater attention to the ways in which machine learning and AI more broadly can reflect <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/2/18/21121286/algorithms-bias-discrimination-facial-recognition-transparency">bias and discrimination</a>, even while purporting to be objective and neutral.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="F7yKkf">
|
|||
|
|
“We have to be careful not to frame questions as one of adapting to technology,” said David Broniatowski, a professor at George Washington University who has studied anti-vaccination communities online. “The technology is out in the world, so we should ask how to remake technology so we can achieve goals that are of best benefit to society.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="i71Tjm">
|
|||
|
|
Aid Access has withstood legal challenges, so far
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WZvKiB">
|
|||
|
|
Aid Access has faced one regulatory challenge, in 2019, when the FDA sent the group <a href="https://www.fda.gov/inspections-compliance-enforcement-and-criminal-
|
|||
|
|
investigations/warning-letters/aidaccessorg-575658-03082019">a cease-and-desist letter</a>, claiming that its generic mifepristone drug represented a “misbranded and unapproved” drug that posed risk to consumers. (The FDA approved one brand of mifepristone, Mifeprex, in 2000, and in 2019 <a href="https://www.fda.gov/drugs/postmarket-drug-safety-
|
|||
|
|
information-patients-and-providers/mifeprex-mifepristone-information">approved a generic version</a>.)
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="D2ycP5">
|
|||
|
|
Aid Access, in turn, sued the FDA, alleging the agency was impeding Americans’ constitutional right to an abortion and that its drugs were, in fact, approved. Aid Access <a href="https://aidaccess.org/en/media/inline/2019/5/16/19_05_16_gomperts_letter_and_exhibit_a.pdf">also maintained</a> that the FDA had no legal jurisdiction over Gomperts. The case was dismissed in part because the FDA never took action following its letter.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="akzYsy">
|
|||
|
|
The Biden administration has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12/16/abortion-pill-fda/">taken a friendly stance</a> toward medication abortion, but a change in the White House in 2024 or beyond could mean new challenges from the FDA or other agencies. Legal threats against Aid Access without the constitutional protection of <em>Roe</em> might make things even more complicated.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bWVpNA">
|
|||
|
|
Anti-abortion activists and lawmakers have been ramping up their efforts to crack down on abortion pills, an unsurprising development given that medication abortion <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/article/2022/02/medication-abortion-now-accounts-more-half-all-us-abortions">accounted for 54 percent</a> of all US abortions in 2020. In 2022 alone, <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/article/2022/03/2022-state-legislative-sessions-abortion-bans-and-restrictions-
|
|||
|
|
medication-abortion">according to the Guttmacher Institute</a>, lawmakers in 22 states have introduced new legislation to restrict the drugs.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="r1QzNw">
|
|||
|
|
Rather than punish those who seek abortions, the slew of anti-abortion laws introduced over the past decade has targeted physicians, clinics, and anyone else who helps to “aid and abet” someone who has an abortion, as <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/12/10/22827899/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-sb8-decision-
|
|||
|
|
whole-womans-health">Texas’s recent ban</a> put it. Abortion activists have worried about the criminalization of patients, but so far efforts have been <a href="https://apnews.com/article/health-texas-
|
|||
|
|
arrests-8bb3d77d2fe745e12860ff5d4d668cec">limited and</a> <a href="https://www.indystar.com/story/news/crime/2016/09/01/purvi-patel-releases-feticide-conviction-
|
|||
|
|
overturned/89707582/">largely unsuccessful</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9vU9vT">
|
|||
|
|
Whether any of these new laws could affect Aid Access’s operations or the patients who seek out its services remains an outstanding question. It’s hard to know what abortion access in the US will look like in a year, or five.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5dQikS">
|
|||
|
|
But for Americans seeking to end their pregnancies now — whether they live in red states with heavy abortion restrictions or in blue states with more liberal laws but heavy financial barriers — Aid Access represents a lifeline. If they can find it.
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ol>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>Can we stop the next pandemic by seeking out deadly viruses in the wild?</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="A pair of hands wearing surgical gloves holds a bat up to the light as two scientists look on
|
|||
|
|
in the background." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qXmeHXG_inH21Vrjvr1S1Ipxgfk=/164x0:3364x2400/1310x983/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70842540/GettyImages_134729579.0.jpg"/>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Researchers examine a bat as part of their search for dangerous animal pathogens in the Global Viral Forecasting Initiative Lab in Yaounde, Cameroon, in July 2011. Global Viral (now part of Metabiota, Inc.) was a PREDICT partner in Cameroon, working to develop an early-warning system for pandemics to monitor the transmission of infectious diseases from animals to humans. | Brent Stirton/Getty Images
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
The dubious track record — and potential risks — of virus hunting, explained.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oVHAPd">
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LI43tg">
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bE3uhC">
|
|||
|
|
In 2009, USAID, the US government agency responsible for international development, <a href="https://www.ucdavis.edu/news/75m-pandemic-warning-system-uc-davis-
|
|||
|
|
leads-global-effort-detect-diseases-moving-wildlife-people">initiated Predict</a>, a groundbreaking project for its time.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="m6WYTd">
|
|||
|
|
The $200 million program was tasked with building other countries’ capabilities to detect new viruses and manage outbreaks, studying the human-wildlife interface and learning about how viruses cross over into humans. Its headline work was viral discovery: directly finding novel viruses in wildlife that posed a risk of a pandemic before they spilled over, and ideally, prevent it from happening.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="l2evyw">
|
|||
|
|
But after a little more than a decade, the program’s funding was cut off by the Trump administration in October 2019 — right before the novel coronavirus hit. (At the time, I <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/10/29/20936921/usaid-predict-pandemic-
|
|||
|
|
preparedness">mourned its passing</a> and saw it as one more sign that we weren’t<strong> </strong>ready for the next pandemic.) And in 2021, with the threat of pandemics firmly established by the catastrophic impact of Covid-19, the Biden administration announced plans to restart a<strong> </strong>viral discovery program, this time under a new name: Deep Vzn.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5qvqGG">
|
|||
|
|
Deep Vzn is an acronym for <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-
|
|||
|
|
releases/oct-5-2021-usaid-announces-new-125-million-project-detect-unknown-viruses">Discovery and Exploration of Emerging Pathogens — Viral Zoonoses</a>. It’s<em> </em>a five-year, $125 million endeavor to send out teams all over the world to identify potentially dangerous pathogens in the wild, bring those viruses back to the lab, and perform experiments to identify which ones could seed the next pandemic.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PB0wKG">
|
|||
|
|
Some of that work happened under Predict’s umbrella as well, but even at the time of the earlier program, some virologists were <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/10/pandemic-prediction-challenge/543954/">quietly saying</a> that viral discovery was overhyped and a waste of time. And in the years since Predict launched, the conversation on the value of viral discovery has shifted toward even greater pessimism.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nk6k62">
|
|||
|
|
Critics — including researchers who study biosecurity and biosafety — argue it doesn’t really pass a cost-benefit analysis. In some ways, virus hunting is looking for a needle in a haystack — the handful of viruses that might cross over to humans amid tens of thousands that won’t — when we don’t even know how to tell needles from hay, or what to do with a needle once we identify one.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GGBLl7">
|
|||
|
|
And<strong> </strong>some experts are raising another, even sharper question: What if viral discovery is not just an ineffective tactic but a terrible idea, one that might not only fail to prevent the next pandemic but potentially even make it more likely?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pakKcH">
|
|||
|
|
“Do you really want to be going into these bat caves to collect and then catalogue which ones are most dangerous to humans?” Andy Weber, assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs under the Obama administration, told me.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mVg4OC">
|
|||
|
|
His concern isn’t just that we’re looking for a needle in a haystack that we may never find. It’s that if we<em> </em>did<em> </em>discover a virus that<strong> </strong>would devastate the world if it crossed over into humans, someone might expose themselves accidentally while researching it, as has happened with smallpox and with influenzas. Worse, finding a virus and infecting animals with it in a lab could open the door to accidental release or intentional use. Success, in other words, could be worse than failure.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="sSjuD4">
|
|||
|
|
Monitoring the interface between humans and animals for pandemic prevention has value, particularly when the programs are narrowly targeted at certain objectives: say, a focus on reducing spillover, or surveillance of potential animal infections, or studying viruses that have already spilled over into humans. Research published <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w">last month in <em>Nature</em></a> projects that global warming could drive 4,000 viruses to spread for the first time between mammals, including potentially humans and animals, by 2070, underscoring the changing threat from zoonotic spillovers.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Vv92pN">
|
|||
|
|
But if the<strong> </strong>risks of virus hunting are higher than the odds of a<strong> </strong>virus crossing over into humans and sparking a pandemic naturally, then viral discovery doesn’t just look inefficient. It looks like a bad<strong> </strong>idea.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="vllX7N">
|
|||
|
|
Finding viruses in the deepest reaches of the natural world
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="riuWYy">
|
|||
|
|
The concept of viral discovery is simple: Every disease that might cause a naturally occurring pandemic is out there somewhere in the environment. What if we found it before it found us?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="c-wide-block">
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image"></figure></div></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2CN8Ach9LmeAOU_SOq1cmxBq41g=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23424977/GettyImages_1230148339.jpg"/> <cite>Steve Jordan/AFP via Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Researchers collect samples from a bat inside a cave in the Zadie region of Gabon in November 2020.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uGodav">
|
|||
|
|
That was the concept behind one plank of<strong> </strong>Predict’s work, which sampled “at least 931 novel virus species from 145,000 samples of wildlife, livestock, and humans,” according to a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7148715/">2020 paper</a> by biologist Colin Carlson, of Georgetown University.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6EvnJS">
|
|||
|
|
The <a href="https://www.globalviromeproject.org/">Global Virome Project</a> has a similar aim. Launched in 2018 and estimated to cost between $1 billion and $4 billion, it aims to go out into the wild and test animals for viruses. (The Global Virome Project did not reply to a request for comment.)
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="j1tD9B">
|
|||
|
|
The key idea behind Predict, the Global Virome Project, and Deep Vzn was that if we build a catalog of hundreds of thousands of viruses out there in nature, we will figure out which ones threaten humans, and then we’ll be better prepared if and when they spill over.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="tr97JV">
|
|||
|
|
“Developing these tools now is essential for being better prepared for the future when new viruses spillover and stopping them from causing outbreaks that could become pandemics,” USAID’s announcement of Deep Vzn as a program <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-
|
|||
|
|
releases/oct-5-2021-usaid-announces-new-125-million-project-detect-unknown-viruses">declared</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OirCeU">
|
|||
|
|
The idea behind these initiatives makes intuitive sense. The notion of being proactive in searching for the next deadly virus that could hobble humanity certainly holds appeal, especially in the post-Covid age. But scientifically, the rationale for such a program rests on more questionable ground than many of its backers assume, according to some experts.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="47UhWo">
|
|||
|
|
“I still fail to see at this point how it’s going to better prepare the human race for the next infectious disease that jumps from animals to humans,” Michael Osterholm, the director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(19)30335-3/fulltext">has argued</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="n6cBnO">
|
|||
|
|
“Before the pandemic, the dominant paradigm was that if we could find these threats we could predict and prevent [the next pandemic],” Carlson, the biologist,<strong> </strong>told me. “It was a silly thing to believe even without the pandemic. … There has been a disconnect between the proposed benefits and the reality for a while.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6cSU1L">
|
|||
|
|
Carlson’s paper goes further.<strong> </strong>“History tells us viral discovery is not enough to prevent pandemics: influenza was first isolated in 1933, Zika in 1947, chikungunya in 1952, and amid the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus in 2003 and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in 2012, nearly two decades of wildlife sampling has turned up hundreds of new coronavirus species,” he writes.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="d1GV40">
|
|||
|
|
And yet, knowing that a virus exists among thousands of viruses in nature, it appears, doesn’t by itself do much of anything to help us defend against it. Supporters argue that it can help with developing vaccines or treatments. But<strong> </strong>there’s yet to be an example of a successful human vaccine or treatment development program for a virus identified only in the wild — and most of the time it takes to get vaccines or treatments ready for wide-scale use is spent on clinical trials in humans that<strong> </strong>are not conducted for viruses that have been found only in animals.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5PgGQ3">
|
|||
|
|
It’s hard to rule out that any particular avenue of scientific research might turn up an important insight down the line. Not much has come of the viral discovery elements of Predict (more on that below), but there’s always the chance something is just around the corner to be discovered.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="UdRhAK">
|
|||
|
|
But with all that said, many prominent researchers remain skeptical. “Broad genomic surveys of animal viruses will … be of little practical value when it comes to understanding and mitigating the emergence of disease,” leading virologists Edward Holmes, Andrew Rambaut, and Kristian Andersen argued in <em>Nature</em> in 2018, in a commentary titled “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05373-w">Pandemics: spend on surveillance, not prediction</a>.” “We urge those working on infectious disease to focus funds and efforts on a much simpler and more cost-effective way to mitigate outbreaks — proactive, real-time surveillance of human populations.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5bH2TR">
|
|||
|
|
And there’s an even worse risk here to ponder.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="p1cOOy">
|
|||
|
|
Could viral discovery risk causing the pandemics it’s meant to stop?
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LwNTnF">
|
|||
|
|
In general, much pandemic prevention work has focused on minimizing human-animal interfaces — for example, <a href="https://www.technologynetworks.com/applied-sciences/news/strategies-needed-to-reduce-bushmeat-
|
|||
|
|
hunting-337620">encouraging people not to hunt and eat animals</a> that are disease reservoirs, and not to go in caves full of disease-carrying bats.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="c-wide-block">
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_lwxbwGFeKOQq9w94pLmikHnZTU=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23425066/GettyImages_466975308.jpg"/> <cite>Nichole Sobecki/Washington Post/Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
A market in Brazzaville, Republic of Congo, sells both imported and wild pig, including the red river hog and other popular forms of bushmeat, in February 2015. Scientists have speculated that the practice of eating bushmeat, which is popular across Africa, was responsible for the Ebola outbreak that year.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7dsdgX">
|
|||
|
|
But virus hunting<strong> </strong>itself frequently involves exposure to the highest-risk human-animal interfaces. <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/scientists-scour-
|
|||
|
|
amazon-pathogens-could-spark-next-pandemic">One 2021 <em>Science</em> article</a> about Predict tells an anecdote about the virology researchers trying to find new viruses in the Amazon: “Monkeys have bitten and sneezed on Gordo [a virus hunter profiled], and on this trip a syringe broke as he squeezed the plunger, spraying monkey blood on his face shield. He says his wife complains when he stashes monkey carcasses in their home fridge.” The tone is lighthearted, but the content is, considered from the perspective of closely working with potentially dangerous viruses, fairly terrifying.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yxEusI">
|
|||
|
|
In China, a researcher looking for bat coronaviruses “once forgot personal protective equipment and was splattered with bat urine, leading him to quarantine at home for two weeks. On multiple occasions, bat blood squirted onto his skin while he was trying to grasp the animals with a clamp,” the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-bats-china-
|
|||
|
|
wuhan/2021/06/02/772ef984-beb2-11eb-922a-c40c9774bc48_story.html">Washington Post reported</a>, citing interviews in Chinese state media.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RC5zNm">
|
|||
|
|
Research under those conditions might find previously undiscovered viruses. It also might spread them.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Ex5C37">
|
|||
|
|
“USAID takes biosafety and biosecurity extremely seriously and has established detailed safety protocols and procedures to ensure this work is done safely,” a USAID spokesperson told me, though they did not share details.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1644869525.577759">
|
|||
|
|
Another concern is what happens once viruses are taken to the lab for testing and characterization, which often involves infecting lab animals with the virus to see whether and how they’re affected.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aEwM3p">
|
|||
|
|
“They want to take the viruses that look the scariest, and take them back to the lab, and do experiments on them to determine which really pose a threat of a pandemic,” said<strong> </strong>Kevin Esvelt, a biologist at MIT known for his pioneering work on the gene-editing technology CRISPR. “As soon as you take them back to the lab and start working with them, you run the risk of accidental pandemics” — for example, from lab escapes, where a virus under controlled conditions makes it out of the lab and into the general population.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="WObF2x">
|
|||
|
|
But that’s not even the most significant risk from such research, Weber says. “The biggest concern is that in the process of identifying potential pandemic pathogens we are actually giving a cookbook to potential bad actors,”<strong> </strong>he warns.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lmZsC2">
|
|||
|
|
His argument: Let’s say you are a state actor starting a bioweapons program, or a terrorist group like the <a href="https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/faith-
|
|||
|
|
fanaticism-and-fear-aum-shinrikyo-birth-and-death-terrorist">Aum Shinrikyo cult</a>, which in the 1990s actively tried to build biological agents it could use to harm civilians.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yu5sas">
|
|||
|
|
Wouldn’t a public, neatly ordered list of genomes for all the most dangerous viruses humanity has been able to identify — for which there is no natural immunity and no stockpiled vaccines — provide the perfect shopping list?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="UQ5TG4">
|
|||
|
|
“Once a pandemic-capable pathogen has been identified, its genome features high dual-use potential: it may inform biosurveillance while also constituting a blueprint to cause widespread harm,” a <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4035760">recent preprint paper from researchers at Oxford and Georgetown</a> concluded.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Nv9SEv">
|
|||
|
|
Part of USAID’s plan for Deep Vzn is that all of the discovered genomes would be fully public, which is itself a response to legitimate previous concerns that viral discovery work involved the US going into poor countries and collecting data that the US then didn’t share with locals.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Tb6L2T">
|
|||
|
|
Esvelt puts it like this: “As soon as we publicly identify pandemic-capable viruses, we’ll be giving tens of thousands of individuals the ability to kill as many people as a nuclear device could.” In other words, knowing in advance that a virus might spill over and kill millions of people would theoretically be great. But if scientists effectively tell the world “this virus, if it infected humans, would kill millions of people,” then they’ve created a clear <a href="https://www.nickbostrom.com/information-hazards.pdf">information hazard</a>, accidentally opening the door to potential cataclysmic harm.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="xzE8Bm">
|
|||
|
|
Developing effective bioweapons is difficult — but the hard part isn’t the doing, it’s identifying the rare one that is contagious and dangerous to human beings. If well-intentioned research does that part and a list of such viruses is published, then weaponizing them is quite doable even for a small team. “My own skills are rusty but I could probably do it myself,” Esvelt told me.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1645052955.621279">
|
|||
|
|
“The way the life sciences work is that they post the DNA of everything publicly,” Weber told me. “That’s inevitably going to enable bad actors. The sequences are the recipes for the world’s most dangerous weapons.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="c-wide-block">
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/mOAE3pq70_KpXW1cBS142e8l1N4=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23425291/AP090716011078.jpg"/> <cite>Laurent Cipriani/AP</cite></p>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Researchers wearing protective gear work in the P4 European High Level Security Laboratory in Lyon, France, in 2009. The lab, which normally handles only the most deadly viruses such as Ebola, was preparing to receive the then- new swine flu influenza virus H1N1.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1647890535.976829">
|
|||
|
|
How much of a threat is that, really? Don’t we already have deadly diseases? Sure, terrorists could build a pandemic virus identified through Deep Vzn, but couldn’t they also build smallpox or the 1918 flu? (The genomes for both are available.)
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="liy3hj">
|
|||
|
|
“We live in an era where people can create viruses if they have the blueprint,” Carlson told me. But he’s not worried that virus hunting could add new blueprints: “I believe that in terms of containment scenarios a flu is a bigger fear, and we certainly don’t say that all flu sequences should be confidential. The marginal risk is very small.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="a9ckBD">
|
|||
|
|
Esvelt disagrees. “The key point to get across … is that right now we don’t actually know of any pandemic-capable viruses” that spread in humans for which a vaccine doesn’t exist, he told me. There’s smallpox, but the US has hundreds of millions of vaccine doses<strong> </strong>on hand (and for complicated technical reasons, poxes are harder to create from a blueprint in a lab than flus or coronaviruses are, though not impossible). There are influenzas that have already hit human populations, for which we also have vaccines (and some natural immunity).
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="SuROQW">
|
|||
|
|
“We are partly protected by our limited knowledge of specific genotypes, mechanisms, and other critical biological details” of how best to kick off a deadly pandemic, the <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4035760">Oxford/Georgetown paper</a> finds.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1hvBsA">
|
|||
|
|
Is identifying new recipes for mass death worth it? That comes down to a crucial question: Does having such recipes aid in “defense” against pandemics more than it aids in “offense”?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="qfuwof">
|
|||
|
|
A look at viral discovery’s track record
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="hpcTaY">
|
|||
|
|
The case for work like Deep Vzn’s viral discovery is simple: What if scientists had known in advance that Covid-19 was circulating in wild animals, and had known it posed a threat to humans?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eAQaYc">
|
|||
|
|
In that case, they could have gotten a head start on developing vaccines and treatments. If the next Covid-19 is identified while it’s still in animal hosts, the world could potentially prevent it from spilling over — or least be ready for it if it does <a href="https://www.vox.com/22937351/next-pandemic-vaccine">by designing broad-spectrum vaccines and treatments</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5lyaKx">
|
|||
|
|
The problem is that the world did take exactly this approach to identifying risky coronaviruses after SARS outbreaks in the early 2000s. US programs like Predict funded research to collect pathogens in the wild, including partnerships with the Wuhan Institute of Virology to collect and study coronaviruses — partnerships that hit the headlines when the coronavirus pandemic began in Wuhan.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9F8VO7">
|
|||
|
|
Whether or not the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s coronavirus work had anything to do with causing the last pandemic — many virologists argue that a natural origin is more likely — there was widespread agreement among the experts I talked to that the huge collection of coronaviruses amassed before the pandemic had limited utility in developing treatments or vaccines once Covid-19 began spreading.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="c-wide-block">
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/aypdWayHt4K_JfxotW295nKz2RU=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23425092/GettyImages_1230937482.jpg"/> <cite>Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Members of the World Health Organization team investigating the origins of the Covid-19 coronavirus arrive at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan, China, on February 3, 2021.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wUj7MW">
|
|||
|
|
“After having done this work for 15 years, I think there’s little to show for it. As the intelligence community concluded, it’s plausible that it actually caused this pandemic, and to me that’s enough,” Weber told me. “We don’t have to be sure what caused this pandemic to reduce the risk of the next pandemic. It was of zero help in preventing this pandemic or even predicting this pandemic.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1644869964.403569">
|
|||
|
|
“As best as I can tell, the only thing we needed for the vaccine was the prior work on the spike protein,” Esvelt told me, “and that did not result from any virus discovery or characterization in the lab.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="y9xSr8">
|
|||
|
|
A USAID spokesperson disputed that claim. Predict, they told me, “advanced the current knowledge of several different viral families, including an understanding of where risks are and the human behavior leading to contact with animals that increases the potential for spillover. This information is being used by scientists to develop broadly protective vaccines and medicines, critical tools to have available for when/if a new coronavirus causes an outbreak in the future.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3JnQtp">
|
|||
|
|
Predict’s critics say that while almost any research can technically be said to have “advanced the current knowledge” of viruses, the benefits here are oversold to the public: nothing major, exciting, or especially promising came out of Predict’s viral discovery work — and the most valuable work Predict did was in testing humans near wildlife-human interfaces for diseases that had already<em> </em>crossed over into humans.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gXsKYy">
|
|||
|
|
“Predict only discovered a single conclusive zoonotic virus that spilled over into humans — and this not through wildlife sampling, but from analyzing patient samples,” the recent <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4035760">Oxford and Georgetown</a> paper on large-scale viral surveillance programs noted.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6qHLa5">
|
|||
|
|
“Since the SARS-CoV-1 outbreak in 2003, numerous animal coronaviruses have been gathered and investigated, but this work did little to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic or inform vaccine design,” the researchers wrote, concluding the most valuable work was studies of MERS and SARS — the coronaviruses that had caused severe disease in humans.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="3E8bx7">
|
|||
|
|
The crucial zoonotic crossover work isn’t viral discovery
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LeBGMI">
|
|||
|
|
All of this isn’t to say that efforts to study zoonotic crossover aren’t hugely important, or don’t have a major role to play in pandemic preparedness. Much of Predict’s other work was hugely valuable — for example, research on reducing human-wildlife contact and enhancing international disease response partnerships.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="sTAX8T">
|
|||
|
|
There is no question that lots more preparedness work is needed to prevent the next pandemic. It’s just a matter of what work is best — and safest. “Ultimately, what makes one spillover event into a pandemic versus an isolated outbreak has a lot more to do with policies and health systems (i.e., community awareness, surveillance systems, rapid response capabilities) than it does about knowing ahead of time what sort of characteristics the virus has,” Georgetown biologist Claire Standley, one of the authors of the paper looking at surveillance programs, told me.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="SMS0io">
|
|||
|
|
The paper ultimately highlights a more narrow approach as likely more cost-effective and lower-risk: focusing on response capabilities and human infections in areas where zoonotic crossover is a possibility. “Adopting such a highly focused approach for zoonotic risk prediction may not only reduce safety and security risks associated with the large-scale collection of wildlife viruses, but also generate more actionable insights — and likely at a lower price tag,” the paper concludes.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Gp8aTL">
|
|||
|
|
Esvelt’s ultimate takeaway? “Let’s not learn to make pandemics until we can reliably defend against them. Instead, we could take all of these funds that we were going to use to identify which particular viruses cause pandemics and pour it back into preventing spillover.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Yuki, Ramkumar lose in doubles semifinals</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Chelsea to be sold for $3 billion to consortium led by American investor Todd Boehly</strong> - Todd Boehly is joined by Swiss billionaire Hansjorg Wyss as Chelsea expects the deal to be completed by late May</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Garamond, Bellator, De Villiers, Arcana, Chul Bul Rani and Stockbridge excel</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>IPL 2022 | Bairstow, Jitesh lift Punjab Kings to 189/5</strong> - For Rajasthan Royals, Yuzvendra Chahal took 3 for 28</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Visakhapatnam to host national sea kayaking competition in June</strong> - The three-day event is expected to be held in Rushikonda or Lawsons Bay Beach and see participation from over 20 States across India</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>NGT clears decks for inland waterway project on Ganga river from Prayagraj to Haldia</strong> - The Inland Waterways Authority told the tribunal that the Allahabad High Court, in its April 28, 2016, order, allowed the project subject to receipt of all required statutory clearances</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Andhra Pradesh: BJP Kisan Morcha to fight against State’s ‘anti-farmer’ policies</strong> - Morcha’s State Executive meeting in Vijayawada on Sunday; ‘Jagan has failed to fulfil promises made to farmers’</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Former Karnataka Minister Pramod Madhwaraj quits Congress</strong> - The former Minister claimed that the situation in Udupi district Congress has been a bad experience for him, and it was leading to political suffocation</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Tajinder Bagga arrest | Delhi BJP stages protest, calls Kejriwal ‘dictator’</strong> - On Friday, the Punjab Police arrested Bagga from his residence in Delhi's Janakpuri</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>BJP grew because of OBCs, PM is also an OBC: Fadnavis</strong> - Irrespective of whether political reservation for OBCs in local civic bodies remains or gets cancelled, BJP will give 27% ticket to them, he says</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine war: Russia must withdraw to pre-invasion position for a deal - Zelensky</strong> - Any deal would depend on President Putin pulling forces back to pre-invasion positions, he says.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Moskva sinking: US gave intelligence that helped Ukraine sink Russian cruiser - reports</strong> - The Pentagon has not commented, but a spokesman said the US gave intelligence to help Ukraine’s defence.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Who is Alina Kabaeva, Putin’s alleged girlfriend?</strong> - The EU is proposing to sanction Alina Kabaeva, an ex-gymnast turned media boss close to President Vladimir Putin.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Victory Day parade: Moscow readies itself and turns up rhetoric</strong> - The Victory Day parade in Red Square is days away and speculation is rife about how Putin may use it.Victory Day parade: All eyes on Moscow - and what Putin does next</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Italy orders seizure of yacht linked to Putin</strong> - The Scheherazade has been undergoing repairs and is being seized under EU sanctions.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Why Severance is one of the best shows on TV</strong> - This Apple TV+ show is bonkers in the best way. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1852550">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Rifftrax: The Game serves the fun, will make you crow in laughter</strong> - Do you like interrupting films with jokes? Is it hurting friendships? Play this instead. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1852720">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Vast underground water system helps drive Antarctica’s glaciers</strong> - Scientists have finally found Antarctica’s missing groundwater. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1852841">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Review: Moon Knight takes its troubled protagonist on classic voyage of the hero</strong> - Spinoff series has more in common with Netflix <em>Defenders</em> shows than the broader MCU. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1852276">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Puzzling cases of hepatitis in kids leaps to 109 in 25 states, CDC reports</strong> - Of the 109 cases, 14% required liver transplants, five deaths reported. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1852878">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>Your mom is so old</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
She has a separate entrance for black guys
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/SlarteyBartFarster"> /u/SlarteyBartFarster </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/ujxru2/your_mom_is_so_old/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/ujxru2/your_mom_is_so_old/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>A wife is frying eggs for her husband in the morning</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Suddenly the husband appears behind the wife’s back and says:
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
“Careful, CAREFUL, put more fat in the pan! You’re frying too many at a time. TOO MANY! Flip them! FLIP THEM! Come on! Put more fat in there. Oh dear lord. How are you gonna make space for the fat now, look, they’re sticking to the pan! Careful! Careful now! You never listen to me when I cook! NEVER! Flip them over already. HURRY! ARE YOU CRAZY? Take it easy! EASY! Nooo, don’t forget the salt. Put salt on them, SALT!”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
The wife stares at her husband:
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
“What’s wrong with you? You think I can’t fry a few eggs?”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
The husband answers calmly:
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
“I just wanted to show you what it feels like when I’m driving.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Beldarius"> /u/Beldarius </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/uk8708/a_wife_is_frying_eggs_for_her_husband_in_the/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/uk8708/a_wife_is_frying_eggs_for_her_husband_in_the/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>A boob, vagina and asshole are debating who is the greatest of the three.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Boob: I produce milk for babies and I am attractive to the opposite sex.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Vagina: That’s nothing, I give birth to babies and can accommodate the opposite sex.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Why are you still scrolling down? It’s your turn to speak.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Buddy2269"> /u/Buddy2269 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/ujxma4/a_boob_vagina_and_asshole_are_debating_who_is_the/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/ujxma4/a_boob_vagina_and_asshole_are_debating_who_is_the/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>Yuri Gagarin returned from space and Khrushchev asked him a question: “While you were up there, did you see god?”</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Yuri replied: “Yes.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
“That’s what I suspected, but don’t tell anybody.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Gagarin traveled to Rome and met the Pope, who asked him a question: “While you were up there, did you see god?”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Yuri replied: “No.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
“That’s what I suspected, but don’t tell anybody.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Beldarius"> /u/Beldarius </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/uk8bzp/yuri_gagarin_returned_from_space_and_khrushchev/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/uk8bzp/yuri_gagarin_returned_from_space_and_khrushchev/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>My friend was bragging his new 3D printer can print a gun.</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
I wasn’t impressed, I’ve had a Canon printer for years!
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Deerkiller14"> /u/Deerkiller14 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/ujm9qn/my_friend_was_bragging_his_new_3d_printer_can/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/ujm9qn/my_friend_was_bragging_his_new_3d_printer_can/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
<script>AOS.init();</script></body></html>
|