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<meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, user-scalable=yes" name="viewport"/>
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<title>13 February, 2022</title>
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<title>Daily-Dose</title><meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" name="viewport"/><link href="styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><link href="../styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><style>*{overflow-x:hidden;}</style><link href="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.css" rel="stylesheet"/><script src="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.js"></script></head>
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<body>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The New Doves on Ukraine</strong> - Could the U.S. prevent a war by giving up on NATO expansion? - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-inquiry/the-new-doves-on-ukraine">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Did Omicron Come from Mice?</strong> - Throughout the pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 has transmitted easily from humans to other species. Some scientists now believe that animals could spread new variants back to us. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/did-omicron-come-from-mice">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>What the “Involution” Olympics in Beijing Suggest About China’s Future</strong> - The Winter Games are constrained not only by the pandemic but also by the Communist Party’s determination to suppress any challenge that could test its grip. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-the-involution-olympics-in-beijing-suggest-about-chinas-%20future">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Sunday Reading: Profiles and Portraits</strong> - From the magazine’s archive: a selection of compelling portraits and sketches, in celebration of the magazine’s ninety- seventh anniversary. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/books/double-take/sunday-reading-profiles-and-portraits">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Choosing My Daughter’s Name</strong> - There was no way I could come up with a Korean name for my daughter on my own. So I reached out to my mother for help. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/choosing-my-daughters-name">link</a></p></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
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<ul>
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The bad news about your avocado habit</strong> -
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<img alt="Crates of avocados seen from above, one with hands reaching into it. " src="https://cdn.vox-
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cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70503847/GettyImages_616080864.0.jpg"/>
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<figcaption>
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A farmer harvests avocados at an orchard in Uruapan, Michoacan State, Mexico. | Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images
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</figcaption></figure></li>
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</ul>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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The real cost of that Super Bowl guacamole.
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For some of us, the best part of the Super Bowl is the bowl filled with guacamole. By one estimate, football fans eat their way through <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/undertheinfluence/how-the-super-bowl-saved-the-avocado-1.4513613">105 million pounds</a> of avocados during the big game, making it the biggest day of the year for these fatty, nutritious, and delicious fruits.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iUuhUx">
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But Americans don’t need the excuse of football to eat avocados. In the past decade, consumption has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-02-04/supply-chain-latest-guacamole-prices-
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soar-before-super-bowl?sref=qYiz2hd0">doubled</a> as the nation demands more guac, more avocado toast, and more avocado smoothies.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="snd5uA">
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Most of those avocados begin their journey in Mexico. The country is the world’s top<strong> </strong>grower and exporter of the fruit, and the US is by far its largest customer. For every <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479720314079">four avocados that Mexico exports</a>, three are gobbled up in the US. It’s perhaps for this reason that the marketing organization Avocados From Mexico was the first agriculture brand to pay <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/1/27/7907563/super-bowl-2015-time-history-seahawks-
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patriots">millions of dollars</a> for a Super Bowl commercial spot, <a href="https://admeter.usatoday.com/2015/01/30/avocados-from-mexico-super-bowl-commercial-first-draft-ever/">back in 2015</a>, <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/avocado-environment-cost-food-mexico/">according to</a> the scholar Manuel Ochoa Ayala.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="cnY19q">
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That nearly insatiable appetite comes at a cost. To meet surging demand in the US, farmers in Mexico have cut down swaths of forest in the western state of Michoacán, one of the most important ecosystems in the country. By <a href="https://www.globalforestwatch.org/blog/commodities/forests-falling-fast-to-make-
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way-for-mexican-
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avocado/?utm_campaign=gfw&utm_source=gfwblog&utm_medium=hyperlink&utm_term=jaliscoavocado">some estimates</a>, as many as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ea0c342d603f4d089768a41a1c02dfc8">20,000 acres</a> of forest — the area of more than 15,000 American football fields — are cut down each year and replaced with avocado plantations. The rapid expansion of orchards will threaten forests in Mexico for years to come, according to <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5370">a study</a> published this week.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GeAFJa">
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That doesn’t mean you should stop buying avocados altogether, experts say. Avocado farming in Mexico is a lifeline for a low-income part of the country, and simply boycotting the produce would likely do more harm than good.
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There are ways to limit your impact on ecosystems when shopping for these fruits. And the true responsibility to improve the industry, experts say, falls on what could be called Big Avocado — the handful of major corporations that import and sell these beloved superfoods.
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</p>
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<h3 id="H2fHh2">
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The emerging link between Mexican avocados and deforestation
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As recently as a few decades ago, Mexican avocados were nowhere to be found in the US. Not in grocery stores. <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-
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xpm-1997-02-01-fi-24310-story.html">Not even</a> in Mexican restaurants. For most of the 20th century, the US prohibited companies from importing them from Mexico because government officials feared that avocados might introduce insect pests into American orchards.
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</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
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<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
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cdn.com/thumbor/6yFGepW6Oh5H_DqKpbqwiunaukg=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
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cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23232685/GettyImages_620942176.jpeg"/> <cite>Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images</cite>
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<figcaption>
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An avocado farm in the Mexican state of Michoacán. Some farmers cut down native forests to plant avocado trees.
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That all changed in 1997 when the US, after reviewing Mexico’s practices, lifted its ban. Avocados started streaming northward. Between 2000 and 2018, exports of avocados from Michoacán, one of Mexico’s poorest states and the origin of nearly all of its avocados, grew <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479720314079">60-fold</a>.
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Much of that growth has come at the expense of forests. Although it’s often illegal, farmers sometimes cut down trees to clear space for avocado orchards — either because there’s no existing farmland to grow the crops or because it’s cheap, experts say. Forested lands in Michoacán contain nutrient-rich soil, so farmers don’t need to spend as much money on fertilizers, according to Antonio González-Rodríguez, a forest researcher at Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Demand for avocados also makes them a lucrative crop, so farmers have an incentive to continue planting.
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No organization specifically tracks forest loss from the avocado industry, but a handful of researchers have made troubling estimates in recent years. One <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479720314079">paper</a> published in early 2021, for example, found that farmers in Michoacán planted about 36,000 acres of avocado farms in areas where trees were cut down between 2001 and 2017. A few years earlier, government officials in Mexico <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ea0c342d603f4d089768a41a1c02dfc8">estimated</a> that Michoacán was losing between 15,000 and 20,000 acres of forest each year — a third or more of the region’s total deforestation — to avocado cultivation. (It’s worth noting that while experts consider these numbers substantial, other food industries, including <a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/magazine/issues/summer-2018/articles/what-are-the-biggest-drivers-of-tropical-
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deforestation">beef and soybeans</a>, are a much bigger problem for the world’s forests.)
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Farmers are still cutting down trees to grow avocados today, said Audrey Denvir, a doctoral researcher at the University of Texas at Austin. In a <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5370">study</a> this week co-authored by Denvir, researchers estimated that avocado orchards in Michoacán will expand by roughly 250,000 acres through 2050. In a worst-case scenario, that expansion would come at the expense of native forests, she said. A portion of these future farms will likely spread into federally protected areas that harbor a diversity of plant and animal life, the researchers concluded.
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
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cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23226205/AP22025009189222.jpg"/> <cite>Fernando Llano/AP</cite></p>
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<figcaption>
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Avocado farmers will often drain streams to fill manufactured ponds that they use to water their crops.
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</figcaption>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="SPgTPW">
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Millions of migrating <a href="https://www.vox.com/down-to-
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earth/22823993/monarch-butterflies-mexico-milkweed">monarch butterflies</a> amass every winter in the forests of Michoacán, after flying more than 2,000 miles south from the US and Canada. Avocado orchards have begun <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7159/1/4/23/htm">cutting into parts of the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve</a>, “where native vegetation is paramount for the insect’s survival,” researchers from the nonprofit World Resources Institute (WRI) <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/will-mexicos-growing-avocado-industry-harm-its-forests">wrote</a> in 2020. Pesticides from avocado farms could also <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2673-7159/1/4/23/htm">endanger the iconic insects</a>.
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Replacing forests with avocado farms also draws down the precious water supply. Avocados suck up <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329060192_ID_1369_HYDROLOGICAL_IMPACT_OF_THE_GREEN_GOLD_AVOCADO_CULTURE_IN_CENTRAL_MEXICO_RAINFALL_PARTITION_AND_WATER_USE_COMPARISON_WITH_NATIVE_FOREST">more water</a> than fir and pine trees, and farmers will often drain streams to fill retention ponds that they use to water their crops, the Associated Press’s Mark Stevenson <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-world-news-mountains-
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mexico-caribbean-32a4508534bffb00cf341119de733d5d">recently reported</a>. As a result, the water that reaches downstream communities is often lower in quantity and higher in chemicals such as pesticides, said Diego Pérez-Salicrup, another researcher at UNAM.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0jnrig">
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Researchers are now worried that avocado plantations are expanding outside of Michoacán. Late last year, the US government <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-mexico-caribbean-global-trade-
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agriculture-0a0325fab293d80d71875b50f40ac03f">struck a deal with Mexico</a> that will allow Jalisco, a state just north of Michoacán, to begin exporting to the States. “The patterns are repeating themselves,” said Valeria López-Portillo, a researcher at WRI Mexico.
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<h3 id="alsRqT">
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“Let’s not confuse the knife with the murder”
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</h3>
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How these fruits get from point A to point B shows just how complex today’s avocado industry has become. A single fruit may pass through the hands of growers, packers, exporters, and importers before it reaches retailers such as grocery stores. Drug cartels in Mexico are also <a href="https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/02/07/avocados-mexican-drug-
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cartels">involved</a> in the avocado trade, experts say, largely because there’s a lot of money to be made.
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<figure class="e-image">
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<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
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cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23227256/1_s2.0_S0301479720314079_gr4_lrg.jpg"/> <cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479720314079#appsec1" target="_blank">Kimin Cho et al./<em>Journal of Environmental Management</em></a></cite>
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<figcaption>
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The supply chain of Mexican avocados.
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Major US firms that import avocados from Mexico and sell them to chain retailers must be aware that growing these fruits is harming ecosystems, López-Portillo said. It’s easy to see the problem if you spend any time in Michoacán, she added. Producers of soy and oil palm have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/02/climate/companies-net-zero-
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deforestation.html#:~:text=Cargill%2C%20Nestle%2C%20Carrefour%20and%20others,their%20supply%20chains%20by%202020.">pledged to eliminate forest loss</a> from their supply chains, but no such pledges exist among major avocado firms, according to Denvir.
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Avocados From Mexico, the marketing group, said in a statement to Vox that farmers follow all US and Mexican regulations, including those related to pest control and deforestation. “The avocado industry in Mexico is committed to the environment and sustainable development of the region,” the statement said. It did not respond to a question about how it ensures that growers are not deforesting land.
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The US, meanwhile, doesn’t ban imports of avocados tied to illegal deforestation, Denvir said. Vox also reached out to several major avocado importers, including Mission Produce, West Pak Avocado, and Calavo; those that responded to our request declined to comment.
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Avocado farms themselves are not the root of the problem, Pérez-Salicrup said. Only some farmers actually cut down trees to grow avocados, he said, and most of the profits go to the corporations exporting, importing, and selling the avocados in the US and Canada. “Let’s not confuse the knife with the murder,” he said. There are examples of farmers using revenue generated from an avocado orchard to fund forest conservation, Pérez-Salicrup added.
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Some researchers say that avocados should be certified for sustainability so that consumers can assess the impact of their purchases. “What I would love to see is an eco-label for avocados,” Denvir said. The industry could model such a label after certification programs for other commodities, similar to what the Forest Stewardship Council does for pulp and paper, researchers wrote <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-021-01538-6">in a 2021 paper</a> led by Denvir. Alternatively, companies could apply existing labels — like Rainforest Alliance, marked by the green frog you can find on bars of chocolate and bags of coffee — to avocado growing, she added. (Existing sustainability standards are <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00360-3">far from perfect</a>.)
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<pre><code> <img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-</code></pre>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">cdn.com/thumbor/BB6nsoBrKyRL2609tX_30ZZa0gg=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox- cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23226208/AP19193581029895.jpg" /> <cite>Nick Wagner/AP</cite></p>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Avocados in a market in Mexico City.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="SIusTp">
|
|||
|
|
In the meantime, what should you do at the grocery store? If you have the financial means, it’s better to choose organic, experts say. In general, “the producers who farm organic care more,” González Rodríguez said. Yet even with organic products, it can be difficult to know exactly where they’re coming from, Denvir said.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jxtBqJ">
|
|||
|
|
Most importantly, researchers told Vox, don’t swear off all Mexican avocados. That will only harm communities in Michoacán whose livelihoods depend on them. Though corporations reap most of the profits, growing the fruits still brings much-needed income to rural Mexico.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GpXdWc">
|
|||
|
|
Now, could you please pass the chips?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6Fay2m">
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="DEgVRj">
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>There’s finally momentum to stop stock trading in Congress</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="Sen. Jon Ossoff, wearing a black face mask and a dark tie, walks through the Senate subway in
|
|||
|
|
the US Capitol during a vote on December 6, 2021." src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/ySInb18RS93S5dgGNjNBNNITqCA=/0x0:5865x4399/1310x983/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70502778/1357559922.0.jpg"/>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) walks through the Senate subway in the US Capitol during a vote on December 6, 2021, in Washington, DC. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Details vary, but Democrats and Republicans are both ready to ban stock trading by lawmakers.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vk8UPn">
|
|||
|
|
Bills banning members of Congress from trading stocks are gaining increased bipartisan support — including from a former skeptic, Speaker Nancy Pelosi — after a series of investigations involving potential insider trading by lawmakers, particularly in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3xuHBY">
|
|||
|
|
There’s <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/588630-76-percent-of-voters-support-banning-lawmakers-
|
|||
|
|
from-trading-stocks-poll">wide agreement among voters</a> that legislators should be banned from trading stocks while in Congress, since their position can give then access to information about companies and industries that ordinary people don’t have. While there are some policies in place to at least provide transparency about how legislators are making money from the stock market, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-stock-act-violations-penalties-
|
|||
|
|
consequences-2021-12">there aren’t significant punishments for violating those rules</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RuTRZo">
|
|||
|
|
In fact, as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-stock-act-violations-senate-house-trading-2021-9">Business Insider’s Dave Levinthal</a> reported earlier this month, at least 55 members of Congress violated the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act in 2021 alone.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Ro5mfL">
|
|||
|
|
The law — better known as the STOCK Act — was passed in 2012 to curtail the use of inside information to trade stocks, but many lawmakers now believe it didn’t go far enough to curb abuses.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qmmyZX">
|
|||
|
|
<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/conflicted-congress-key-findings-stock-act-
|
|||
|
|
finances-investing-2021-12">Business Insider’s reporting</a>, as well as the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/david-perdue-stock-trades.html">high-profile investigations</a> of <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/3/20/21188144/senators-dumping-stock-as-market-tanks">Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and former Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue</a> for suspiciously well-timed trades around the advent of the pandemic, have (somewhat belatedly) spurred new energy around legislation to prevent members of Congress from trading stocks while in office, with multiple bills introduced in the House and Senate aiming to do just that — albeit with varying degrees of stringency and a lack of clarity regarding who exactly should be targeted.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3q2gdH">
|
|||
|
|
According to Craig Holman, a lobbyist for the government watchdog group Public Citizen, public frustration with ethical issues — and <a href="https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1491591498185392128?s=20&t=e4DIP3HtPDKzSPad3iDYwQ">widespread public support</a> for a stock trading ban — is likely driving the current push.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="e321cW">
|
|||
|
|
“Sometimes we have to embarrass Congress into doing the right thing, and it works once the public gets involved,” he told <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/01/congress-stock-trading-ban/621402/">The Atlantic</a> in January.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JykUn6">
|
|||
|
|
Congressional leadership is also warming to the issue: Pelosi, in a shift from <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-nancy-pelosi-congress-8685e82eb6d6e5b42413417f3d5d6775">her position late last year</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/pelosi-stock-trading-ban-
|
|||
|
|
congress-069dc627-71fd-490f-a005-510bbd18cce2.html">appeared to endorse a ban</a> this week, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer offered his own endorsement on the Senate floor.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wSbkh9">
|
|||
|
|
“This is something that the Senate should address,” <a href="https://www.democrats.senate.gov/news/press-releases/majority-leader-schumer-floor-remarks-on-
|
|||
|
|
legislation-to-address-stock-trading-by-members-of-congress">Schumer said</a> on Wednesday. “Hopefully we can act on it soon and hopefully it can be done in a bipartisan way like many of the bills we are looking at this week.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="z84dMZ">
|
|||
|
|
But while there’s widespread consensus that something has to be done, legislators aren’t yet in agreement about key aspects of an eventual bill, including who the ban should cover and how severe repercussions should be.
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="PRmduX">
|
|||
|
|
Pandemic trades looked suspicious — and raised alarms
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="8rsD3A">
|
|||
|
|
Ethics experts say there are <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/why-members-of-congress-should-not-trade-stocks">abundant reasons</a> why lawmakers should be barred from trading individual stocks, but the problem was cast into particularly stark relief by the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="VQZh2R">
|
|||
|
|
Specifically, in early 2020, when many Americans suddenly lost their jobs due to the pandemic (not to mention had to deal with unexpected medical bills and childcare), <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/3/20/21188144/senators-dumping-stock-as-market-tanks">US senators raked in millions after placing fortuitous trades in the stock market</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ExfOYH">
|
|||
|
|
Loeffler, who lost her seat to Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff last year, reportedly made millions after she and her husband sold some of their interests in January 2020 — and invested in the teleworking company Citrix. The next month, Burr, the former head of the Senate Intelligence Committee, dumped between $628,000 and $1.7 million in stocks — including <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/03/burr-unloaded-stocks-before-coronavirus/">stocks in hotel companies</a> — just weeks before Covid-19 hit the US in full force. And <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/david-
|
|||
|
|
perdue-stock-trades.html">Perdue</a>, a very active trader who also lost his reelection bid in 2021, routinely traded assets of companies that his<strong> </strong>former Senate committees oversaw.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jNd3So">
|
|||
|
|
Loeffler and Burr were both accused of insider trading, which they fiercely denied, and along with Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and James Inhofe (R-OK) were subject to an <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/5/27/21271726/kelly-loeffler-
|
|||
|
|
senators-investigation-insider-trading">FBI investigation</a> of their conduct, which ultimately did not result in charges.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="qEeqcY">
|
|||
|
|
That’s not especially surprising — insider trading is hard to prove under normal circumstances, Donald Sherman, senior vice president and chief counsel of Citizens for Responsible Ethics in Washington (CREW), told Vox, and when it comes to members of Congress, he said, “that bar, in practical effect, gets even higher.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="EoXSNt">
|
|||
|
|
Insider trading, of course, is illegal for everyone and not just members of Congress. As Sherman points out, though, it’s exceedingly hard to prove, and Congress is subject to additional checks on their trading behavior. Those don’t always work either, though: <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/why-
|
|||
|
|
members-of-congress-should-not-trade-stocks">According to former chief White House ethics lawyer Richard Painter</a>, the 2012 STOCK Act “confirmed that insider trading laws apply to members of Congress and their spouses; using nonpublic information learned in Congress to trade securities is illegal. But in the nearly 10 years since the STOCK Act’s passage, nobody in Congress has been prosecuted for insider trading based on congressional information.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fzKXgv">
|
|||
|
|
Specifically, the STOCK Act requires legislators to file disclosures regarding their trading activity, but members of Congress violate it often. The law is not well enforced, and the punishment for violation is often something like a $200 fine, as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-stock-act-violations-senate-house-
|
|||
|
|
trading-2021-9">Business Insider’s reporting found</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="iMe2Xs">
|
|||
|
|
“Members of Congress just have way too much access to way too much information,” Tyler Gellasch, a former Senate staffer and architect of the STOCK Act, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/12/congressional-trading-bans-explained-00008245">told Politico on Saturday</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="zUxcfO">
|
|||
|
|
Can Congress really stop members from trading stock?
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oUhweQ">
|
|||
|
|
Momentum is building behind a push to ban stock trading in Congress, but no one clear plan has emerged so far. Despite bipartisan, bicameral consensus on the basic policy, there are multiple different proposals across both chambers of Congress that vary in breadth and enforcement.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FFjSuV">
|
|||
|
|
One of the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-
|
|||
|
|
congress/senate-bill/3494/text?r=2&s=1">most stringent bills</a>, which was introduced <a href="https://www.ossoff.senate.gov/press-releases/sens-ossoff-kelly-introduce-bill-banning-stock-trading-by-members-of-
|
|||
|
|
congress/">by Ossoff and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ)</a> last month, stipulates that not only legislators, but their spouses and any dependent children, put their stocks and other investment assets into a blind trust managed by an independent party for the duration of their congressional career. The penalty for violating the bill’s requirement would be a fine equivalent to the member’s entire congressional salary, <a href="https://www.ossoff.senate.gov/press-releases/sens-
|
|||
|
|
ossoff-kelly-introduce-bill-banning-stock-trading-by-members-of-congress/">according to Ossoff’s office</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vmKsea">
|
|||
|
|
“Members of Congress should not be playing the stock market while we make federal policy and have extraordinary access to confidential information,” Ossoff said in a press release announcing the new legislation.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BKK5qU">
|
|||
|
|
The Ossoff-Kelly bill, which has yet to find a Republican cosponsor in the Senate, is modeled closely on a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/01/16/spanberger-roy-ossoff-insider-trading/">bipartisan bill in the House</a>, which was <a href="https://spanberger.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=3002">first introduced</a> by Reps. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) and Chip Roy (R-TX) in 2020 and <a href="https://spanberger.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=3449">reintroduced</a> last year. That bill — the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/336/text">TRUST in Congress Act</a> — doesn’t cover other asset classes like mutual funds or government bonds like its Senate counterpart does, but would still impose substantial divestment requirements on lawmakers.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wrdWCd">
|
|||
|
|
“If placing limitations on how we can buy and sell stock makes it so that someone trusts us a bit more — Congress doesn’t have a great approval rating — I think that is a quote-unquote sacrifice we should make to positively affirm we are deserving of that trust, or to positively affirm we are working for the American people and not our pocketbooks,” Spanberger told the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/01/16/spanberger-roy-ossoff-insider-trading/">Washington Post</a> last month.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6FJ0ub">
|
|||
|
|
But Sherman, the CREW chief counsel, says that it’s not enough just to divest from individual stocks, and that other asset classes can be subject to insider knowledge, too. “Individual stocks is the floor,” he told Vox, and putting them in a blind trust “doesn’t do the job.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ypx2nc">
|
|||
|
|
In addition to the Ossoff-Kelly or Spanberger-Roy proposals, Sens. Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Ben Sasse (R-NE) have each introduced their own proposals; the Hawley bill would take a narrower approach and doesn’t include a ban on dependent children’s portfolios, while Sasse’s bill comes with a hefty penalty — a fine as large $1 million, up to five years in prison, or both. Neither, however, has garnered as much support as the Ossoff-Kelly or Spanberger-Roy proposals.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="AxZKpn">
|
|||
|
|
In the House, there’s also the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/1579/text?r=62&s=1">Ban Conflicted Trading Act</a>, which was <a href="https://krishnamoorthi.house.gov/media/press-releases/members-congress-
|
|||
|
|
introduce-bipartisan-legislation-stop-government-officials">introduced</a> last year by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) and currently has 51 cosponsors in the House, ranging from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) to Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL).
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bny8S0">
|
|||
|
|
That bill would ban members of Congress and their senior staff from trading individual stocks, but doesn’t have a ban on spouses and dependent children; it’s supported by a number of Democratic senators.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zWhs0S">
|
|||
|
|
Yet another permutation of a stock trading ban — the bipartisan, bicameral <a href="https://jayapal.house.gov/2022/02/09/jayapal-rosendale-warren-daines-introduce-new-bipartisan-bill-to-ban-members-
|
|||
|
|
of-congress-from-owning-and-trading-stocks/">Congressional Stock Ownership Act</a>, which counts Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Steve Daines (R-MT) as cosponsors — does not address dependent children’s holdings, but covers lawmakers and their spouses and<strong> </strong>would impose a $50,000 fine for violations.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Mg5VdC">
|
|||
|
|
Additionally, <a href="https://porter.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=435">Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)</a> are proposing changes to the 2012 STOCK Act, building on current legislation by banning stock trading, strengthening disclosure requirements, and expanding the offices that the STOCK Act applies to, to include, “members of the federal judiciary and Federal Reserve Bank presidents, vice presidents, and members of the Federal Reserve boards of directors.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="H0bYhM">
|
|||
|
|
Whatever Congress settles on, Sherman told Vox, “the penalties need to be significant enough that it does have a financial impact” on violators. Financial penalties, he said, “can and should have a chilling effect” on legislators’ motivation to engage in trading — likely even more so than other punitive measures.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="xZaKqq">
|
|||
|
|
The biggest hurdle might be getting legislators to agree on one bill
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BkTq8G">
|
|||
|
|
None of the bills are perfect, but ethics experts say some are better than others. One particular priority: spouses and children. “A congressional stock trade ban that doesn’t cover spouses is worthless,” <a href="https://twitter.com/waltshaub/status/1492209238986403840">Walter Shaub</a>, the Project on Government Oversight’s senior ethics fellow and former director of the Office on Government Ethics, tweeted Friday.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<div id="74jIsS">
|
|||
|
|
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" dir="ltr" lang="en">
|
|||
|
|
A congressional stock trade ban that doesn’t cover spouses is worthless. Share this with your member.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
— Walter Shaub (<span class="citation" data-cites="waltshaub">@waltshaub</span>) <a href="https://twitter.com/waltshaub/status/1492209238986403840?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 11, 2022</a>
|
|||
|
|
</blockquote>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oNq1EL">
|
|||
|
|
Sherman agrees: “The exclusion of spouses and dependent children is a giant loophole,” he told Vox.
|
|||
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</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="C7ZAPu">
|
|||
|
|
That loophole is particularly visible in <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-ohio-
|
|||
|
|
pennsylvania-mike-kelly-congress-c33b4b4c411c7ec0badc140d20dd4af6">the case of Rep. Mike Kelly</a> (R-PA), whose wife Victoria made thousands of dollars from stock trades, potentially using inside information, in April 2020. Insider trading is already incredibly difficult to prove; insider trading by a spouse would be even more so, despite the fact that it would likely benefit both parties in the marriage.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="NxlISJ">
|
|||
|
|
A ban would also head off the appearance of impropriety, regardless of actual violations. For example, Pelosi herself benefits from the enormous wealth <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nancy-pelosi-husband-buys-stocks-call-options-salesforce-alphabet-
|
|||
|
|
roblox-2022-1">generated by her husband’s stock trading</a>; in July 2021, Paul Pelosi netted $5.3 million from a well- timed transaction, <a href="https://fortune.com/2021/07/08/house-speaker-nancy-pelosi-husband-paul-big-tech-
|
|||
|
|
stocks/">according to Fortune</a>, though there’s no evidence of wrongdoing on either or their parts.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gc5eyP">
|
|||
|
|
<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/12/congressional-trading-bans-explained-00008245">As Katy O’Donnell wrote in Politico Saturday</a>, despite the glut of legislation on hand, there are still many unanswered questions regarding what a final bill would look like, and what it could do. While the sentiment of the bills is the same, the specifics are so divergent that it could completely derail the positive movement toward enacting a ban.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FE65g4">
|
|||
|
|
Lawmakers, though, have indicated that they’re willing to compromise in pursuit of the larger goal of ending congressional stock trading.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="O9X5K9">
|
|||
|
|
“What we’re trying to do as a group is make sure we don’t lose sight of the central premise of the immediate effort,” <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/593802-stock-ban-
|
|||
|
|
faces-steep-hurdles-despite-growing-
|
|||
|
|
support?utm_source=thehill&utm_medium=widgets&utm_campaign=es_recommended_content&rl=1">Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR)</a>, a cosponsor of the Krishnamoorthi bill, said Friday. “Now we’re going to have to work to bring everybody into a common effort and make sure that this happens and we don’t get distracted or lost in the field of every possibility.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="crahBi">
|
|||
|
|
Sherman told Vox that he was somewhat encouraged by the outright bipartisan support for such a measure. “With all the ethical reforms that have been met with roadblocks … this is something that can get across the finish line, and is should get across the finish line,” he said.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mKR0LA">
|
|||
|
|
Krishnamoorthi has also signaled that he’s willing to compromise on aspects of his proposal, specifically banning members’ spouses from trading. “But,” <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/12/congressional-trading-bans-explained-00008245">he said</a> at a press conference Thursday, “right now we want this thing to move.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Russia-Ukraine crisis, explained</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/suivZdq_VsGiDKswDxEUl75a3jI=/337x0:5392x3791/1310x983/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70487473/GettyImages_1238210128.0.jpg"/>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
A military trainer with Ukraine’s 112th Territorial Defense Brigade works with civilians during a military exercise in the outskirts of Kyiv on February 5. The Ministry of Defense created defense brigades in Ukraine’s main cities because of the risk of invasion by Russia as they amass troops at the border. | Celestino Arce/NurPhoto via Getty Images
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
How the world got here, what Russia wants, and more questions, answered.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Ib60ep">
|
|||
|
|
Russia has gathered <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/02/world/ukraine-russia-news">as many as 130,000 troops</a> along parts of the Ukrainian border — and on Friday, the US <a href="https://twitter.com/jonathansamuels/status/1492214893134684163">warned</a> “we are in the window where an invasion could begin at any time.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="m5nqaE">
|
|||
|
|
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan didn’t offer any details to confirm that assessment, and Moscow on Saturday <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/12/world/russia-ukraine-
|
|||
|
|
news/biden-will-speak-with-putin-today-as-the-us-warns-of-a-possible-imminent-russian-attack-on-ukraine">dismissed</a> the US’s concerns about an incoming invasion as “hysteria.” But the Kremlin appears to be making all the preparations for war: <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-moves-more-weaponry-toward-ukraine-keeps-the-west-
|
|||
|
|
guessing-11642161605">moving more military equipment</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-says-it-sees-
|
|||
|
|
little-scope-for-optimism-in-u-s-proposals-on-ukraine-11643290065">medical units</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-russia-moves-blood-supplies-near-ukraine-adding-us-concern-
|
|||
|
|
officials-2022-01-28/">even blood</a>, to the front lines. It’s an act of aggression that could spiral into the largest military conflict on European soil in decades. Against this backdrop, diplomatic talks between Russia and the United States and its allies — including a direct call Saturday between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin — have not yet yielded any solutions.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="DfnoCc">
|
|||
|
|
The standoff is about the future of Ukraine. But Ukraine is also a larger stage for Russia to try to reassert its influence in Europe and the world, and for Putin to <a href="https://www.vox.com/22917832/vladimir-putin-ukraine-military-invasion">cement his<strong> </strong>legacy</a>. These are no small things for Putin, and he may decide that the only way to achieve them is to launch another incursion into Ukraine; an act, at its most aggressive, that could lead to tens of thousands of civilian deaths, a European refugee crisis, and a response from Western allies that includes tough sanctions affecting the global economy.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TBTdQn">
|
|||
|
|
<a href="https://www.vox.com/22894163/russia-ukraine-putin-biden-nato">The US and Russia have drawn firm red lines</a> that help explain what’s at stake. Russia <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-
|
|||
|
|
issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-nato">presented the US with a list of demands</a>, some of which were nonstarters for the United States and its allies in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/22900113/nato-ukraine-russia-
|
|||
|
|
crisis-clinton-expansion">North Atlantic Treaty Organization</a> (NATO). Putin demanded that NATO<strong> </strong>stop its eastward expansion and deny membership to Ukraine, and that NATO roll back troop deployment in countries that had joined after 1997, which would turn back the clock decades on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/17/world/europe/russia-nato-security-deal.html">Europe’s security and geopolitical alignment</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4XDdd3">
|
|||
|
|
These ultimatums are “a Russian attempt not only to secure interest in Ukraine but essentially relitigate the security architecture in Europe,” <a href="https://www.vox.com/22894163/russia-ukraine-putin-
|
|||
|
|
biden-nato">said</a> Michael Kofman, research director in the Russia studies program at CNA, a research and analysis organization in Arlington, Virginia.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="p4gjuN">
|
|||
|
|
As expected, the US and NATO <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/02/world/europe/us-nato-response-russia-demands.html">rejected those demands</a>. Both the US and Russia know Ukraine is not going to become a NATO member anytime soon.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PBgPVG">
|
|||
|
|
Some preeminent American foreign policy thinkers <a href="https://www.vox.com/22900113/nato-ukraine-russia-crisis-clinton-
|
|||
|
|
expansion">argued at the end of the Cold War</a> that NATO never should have moved close to Russia’s borders in the first place. But NATO’s open-door policy says sovereign countries can choose their own security alliances. Giving in to Putin’s demands would hand the Kremlin veto power over NATO’s decision-making, and through it, the continent’s security.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt="Map of Russia and Ukraine" src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/hCvOOGhgL0QmC694rnEvb_qp5m0=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg"/> <cite>Christina Animashuan/Vox</cite></p>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XmRNMN">
|
|||
|
|
Now the world is watching and waiting to see what Putin — having received the US’s best offer and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-standoff-diplomacy-biden-putin-macron-russia-invasion-
|
|||
|
|
rcna15112">having said he does not like it</a> — will do next.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XuaILB">
|
|||
|
|
An invasion isn’t a foregone conclusion. Moscow <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-standoff-diplomacy-biden-putin-macron-russia-
|
|||
|
|
invasion-rcna15112">continues to deny that it has any plans to invade</a>. But war, if it happened, could be devastating to Ukraine, with unpredictable fallout for the rest of Europe and the West. Which is why, imminent or not, the world is on edge.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="emxXTu">
|
|||
|
|
The roots of the current crisis grew from the breakup of the Soviet Union
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="e5alTH">
|
|||
|
|
When the Soviet Union broke up in the early ’90s, Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, had the third-largest atomic arsenal in the world. The United States and Russia worked with Ukraine to denuclearize the country, and in a <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Ukraine-Nuclear-Weapons">series of diplomatic agreements</a>, Kyiv gave its hundreds of nuclear warheads back to Russia in exchange for security assurances that protected it from a potential Russian attack.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zkYquN">
|
|||
|
|
Those assurances were put to the test in 2014, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula and backed a rebellion led by pro-Russia separatists in the eastern Donbas region. (<a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/content/conflict-ukraines-donbas-visual-explainer">The<strong> </strong>conflict in eastern Ukraine has killed more than 14,000 people to date</a>.)
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/weQLG0LP91Z0sac6QeOuICBSnM4=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23227181/GettyImages_479368305.jpg"/> <cite>Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images</cite></p>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian-installed head of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, far right, attend a rally at Red Square in Moscow, Russia, on March 18, 2014, after Putin annexed Crimea from Ukraine.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="j7RgSd">
|
|||
|
|
Russia’s assault grew out of mass protests in Ukraine that toppled the country’s pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych (partially over his abandonment of a trade agreement with the European Union). US diplomats visited the demonstrations, in symbolic gestures that further agitated Putin.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="zPa4Qs">
|
|||
|
|
President Barack Obama, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/2/7/22916942/biden-lessons-russia-2014-invasion-
|
|||
|
|
ukraine-crimea">hesitant</a> to escalate tensions with Russia any further, was slow to mobilize a diplomatic response in Europe and did not immediately provide Ukrainians with offensive weapons.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1LOhJz">
|
|||
|
|
“A lot of us were really appalled that not more was done for the violation of that [post-Soviet] agreement,” said Ian Kelly, a career diplomat who served as ambassador to Georgia from 2015 to 2018. “It just basically showed that if you have nuclear weapons” — as Russia does — “you’re inoculated against strong measures by the international community.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5Yxlwe">
|
|||
|
|
But the very premise of a post-Soviet Europe is also helping to fuel today’s conflict. Putin has been fixated on reclaiming some semblance of empire, lost with the fall of the Soviet Union. Ukraine is central to this vision. Putin has said Ukrainians and Russians “<a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181">were one people — a single whole</a>,” or at least would be if not for the meddling from outside forces (as in, the West) that has created a “wall” between the two.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<aside id="NOhQYw">
|
|||
|
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</aside>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="2R8Jwo">
|
|||
|
|
Ukraine isn’t joining NATO in the near future, and President Joe Biden has <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/biden-says-it-remains-be-
|
|||
|
|
seen-if-ukraine-will-be-n1270807">said</a> as much. The core of the NATO treaty is Article 5, a commitment that an attack on any NATO country is treated as an attack on the entire alliance — meaning any Russian military engagement of a hypothetical NATO-member Ukraine would theoretically bring Moscow into conflict with the US, the UK, France, and the 27 other NATO members.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1xLLuY">
|
|||
|
|
But the country is the fourth-largest recipient of military funding from the US, and the <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/as-the-russian-threat-grew-us-intelligence-ties-to-ukraine-
|
|||
|
|
deepened-225919359.html">intelligence cooperation</a> between the two countries has deepened in response to threats from Russia.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="as6uUK">
|
|||
|
|
“Putin and the Kremlin understand that Ukraine will not be a part of NATO,” Ruslan Bortnik, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics, said. “But Ukraine became an informal member of NATO without a formal decision.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LKpmP3">
|
|||
|
|
Which is why Putin finds Ukraine’s orientation toward the EU and NATO (despite Russian aggression having quite a lot to do with that) untenable to Russia’s national security.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<pre><code> <img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/J73XBzHD_2pUYAfsRHESkQ-</code></pre>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">JCag=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23227190/AP22036556838570.jpg" /></p>
|
|||
|
|
<cite>Evgeniy Maloletka/AP</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Demonstrators with Ukrainian national flags and posters march in the center of Kharkiv, Ukraine, on February 5. Kharkiv is Ukraine’s second-largest city, just 25 miles from some of the tens of thousands of Russian troops massed at the border.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PsCv24">
|
|||
|
|
The prospect of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO has antagonized Putin at least since President George W. Bush expressed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/apr/01/nato.georgia">support</a> for the idea in 2008. “That was a real mistake,” said Steven Pifer, who from 1998 to 2000 was ambassador to Ukraine under President Bill Clinton. “It drove the Russians nuts. It created expectations in Ukraine and Georgia, which then were never met. And so that just made that whole issue of enlargement a complicated one.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="N6t7Hx">
|
|||
|
|
No country can join the alliance without the unanimous buy-in of all 30 member countries, and many have opposed Ukraine’s membership, in part because it <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/us/politics/nato-ukraine.html">doesn’t meet</a> the conditions on democracy and rule of law.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="00dC64">
|
|||
|
|
All of this has put Ukraine in an impossible position: an applicant for an alliance that wasn’t going to accept it, while irritating a potential opponent next door, without having any degree of NATO protection.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="6ucL70">
|
|||
|
|
Why Russia is threatening Ukraine now
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="wbUcYY">
|
|||
|
|
The Russia-Ukraine crisis is a continuation of the one that began in 2014. But recent political developments within Ukraine, the US, Europe, and Russia help explain why Putin may feel now is the time to act.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="6rim9h">
|
|||
|
|
Among those developments are the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48007487">2019 election of Ukrainian President</a> Volodymyr Zelensky, a comedian who played a president on TV and then became the actual president. In addition to the other thing you <a href="https://www.vox.com/world/2019/9/24/20882359/trump-impeachment-ukraine-president-zelensky">might remember Zelensky for</a>, he promised during his campaign he would <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/06/ukraine-peace-talks-
|
|||
|
|
russia-war-donbass/">“reboot” peace talks to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine</a>, including <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/06/ukraine-president-volodymyr-zelenskiy-gives-putin-one-year-strike-
|
|||
|
|
deal-end-war">dealing with Putin directly</a> to resolve the conflict. Russia, too, likely thought it could get something out of this: It saw Zelensky, a political novice, as someone who might be more open to Russia’s point of view.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/dphrdz0Fvp1g0U1w432-JmC5sPE=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23227207/GettyImages_1145220562.jpg"/> <cite>Maxym Marusenko/NurPhoto via Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
President-elect Volodymyr Zelensky claps during his inauguration in the Ukrainian parliament in Kyiv on May 20, 2019.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aoGivn">
|
|||
|
|
What Russia wants is for Zelensky to implement the 2014 and ’15 Minsk agreements, deals that would bring the pro-Russian regions back into Ukraine but would amount to, as one expert said, a “Trojan horse” for Moscow to wield influence and control. No Ukrainian president could accept those terms, and so Zelensky, under continued Russian pressure, has turned to the West for help, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/ukraine-president-says-nation-is-ready-to-join-nato">talking openly about wanting to join NATO</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BhLhi5">
|
|||
|
|
Public opinion in Ukraine has also strongly swayed to support for ascension into Western <a href="https://www.iri.org/resources/iri-ukraine-poll-shows-support-for-eu-nato-membership-
|
|||
|
|
concerns-over-economy-and-vaccines-for-covid-19/">bodies like the EU and NATO</a>. That may have left Russia feeling as though it has exhausted all of its political and diplomatic tools to bring Ukraine back into the fold. “Moscow security elites feel that they have to act now because if they don’t, military cooperation between NATO and Ukraine will become even more intense and even more sophisticated,” Sarah Pagung, of the German Council on Foreign Relations, said.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ZZPTy6">
|
|||
|
|
Putin tested the West on Ukraine again in the spring of 2021, <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-and-ukrainian-spring-2021-war-scare">gathering forces and equipment near parts of the border</a>. The troop buildup got the attention of the new Biden administration, which led to an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/ukraine-summit-biden-
|
|||
|
|
putin/2021/06/13/b6783866-c9f8-11eb-8708-64991f2acf28_story.html">announced summit between the two leaders</a>. Days later, <a href="https://www.vox.com/22535041/biden-putin-summit-geneva-navalny-nuclear">Russia began drawing down some of the troops</a> on the border.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="utk2ez">
|
|||
|
|
Putin’s perspective on the US has also shifted, experts said. To Putin, the<strong> </strong><a href="https://www.vox.com/22639474/afghanistan-nato-europe-refugees-germany-uk">chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal</a> (which Moscow would know something about) and the US’s domestic turmoil are signs of weakness.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eFL4zb">
|
|||
|
|
Putin may also see the West divided on the US’s role in the world. Biden is still trying to put the transatlantic alliance back together after the distrust that built up during the Trump administration. Some of Biden’s diplomatic blunders have alienated European partners, specifically that aforementioned messy Afghanistan withdrawal and the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/29/biden-submarine-france-clumsy-517643">nuclear submarine deal</a> that Biden rolled out with the UK and Australia that caught France off guard.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="SCPeWm">
|
|||
|
|
Europe has its own internal fractures, too. The EU and the UK <a href="https://apnews.com/article/business-
|
|||
|
|
global-trade-brexit-northern-ireland-european-union-1a5471e81db67b641f313218ff6cd061">are still dealing with the fallout from Brexit</a>. Everyone is grappling with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Germany <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/12/8/22810520/germany-government-olaf-scholz-chancellor-greens-fdp">has a new chancellor</a>, Olaf Scholz, after 16 years of Angela Merkel, and the new coalition government is still trying to establish its foreign policy. Germany, along with other European countries, imports Russian natural gas, and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/why-europe-faces-climbing-energy-bills-2022-02-03/">energy prices are spiking right now</a>. France <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/how-france-pivoted-to-the-right/">has elections in April</a>, and French President Emmanuel Macron <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/07/world/russia-
|
|||
|
|
ukraine-news">is trying to carve out a spot for himself</a> in these negotiations.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<pre><code> <img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-</code></pre>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">cdn.com/thumbor/EiufH8Ed9K1pIXk_j8CIR52gBW8=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox- cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23227212/AP22038804525691.jpg" /> <cite>Thibault Camus/AP</cite></p>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
From left, French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin conduct a joint press conference after their talks on February 7, in Moscow.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="N4aM4A">
|
|||
|
|
Those divisions — <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/07/politics/biden-scholz-meeting-ukraine/index.html">which Washington is trying very hard to keep contained</a> — may embolden Putin. Some experts noted Putin has his own domestic pressures to deal with, including the coronavirus and a struggling economy, and he may think such an adventure will boost his standing at home, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/8/29/6082769/one-chart-why-putin-invading-ukraine">just like it did in 2014</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="W8avg1">
|
|||
|
|
Diplomacy hasn’t produced any breakthroughs so far — but it could
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="U0592N">
|
|||
|
|
A few months into office, the Biden administration spoke about a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/21/999196021/biden-wants-a-stable-
|
|||
|
|
predictable-relationship-with-russia-thats-complicated">“stable, predictable” relationship with Russia</a>. That now seems out of the realm of possibility.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lWculg">
|
|||
|
|
The White House is holding out the hope of a diplomatic resolution, even as it’s preparing for sanctions against Russia, sending money and weapons to Ukraine, and boosting US military presence in Eastern Europe. (Meanwhile, Macron <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-russia-
|
|||
|
|
diplomacy-emmanuel-macron-europe-9dd7eb560d26a81306604dcb1c81bddb">met with Putin</a> for five hours on Monday.)
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pJIgUE">
|
|||
|
|
Late last year, the White House started <a href="https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1468268999851089921?s=20&t=eo9KXgN4fmPiV9ATuqbXAw">intensifying its diplomatic efforts with Russia</a>. In December, Russia handed Washington its list of “legally binding <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-makes-sweeping-demands-security-guarantees-us-
|
|||
|
|
amid/story?id=81821816">security guarantees</a>,” including those nonstarters like a ban on Ukrainian NATO membership, and demanded answers in writing. In January, US and Russian officials tried to negotiate a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/top-diplomats-us-russia-meet-geneva-soaring-ukraine-
|
|||
|
|
tensions-2022-01-21/">breakthrough in Geneva</a>, with no success. The US directly responded to Russia’s ultimatums <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/26/politics/us-russia-ukraine/index.html">at the end of January</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ANeDnt">
|
|||
|
|
In that response, the US and NATO rejected any deal on NATO membership, but leaked documents <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/02/world/europe/us-nato-response-russia-demands.html">suggest</a> the potential for new arms control agreements and increased transparency in terms of where NATO weapons and troops are stationed in Eastern Europe.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="G13J1J">
|
|||
|
|
Biden <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/12/world/russia-ukraine-
|
|||
|
|
news/biden-will-speak-with-putin-today-as-the-us-warns-of-a-possible-imminent-russian-attack-on-ukraine">reportedly reiterated many of those diplomatic proposals</a> in his call with Putin Saturday — offers <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-says-u-s-has-ignored-russian-demands-but-said-talks-are-still-
|
|||
|
|
possible">Putin has previously said</a> ignored the key issues.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lp3el1">
|
|||
|
|
One thing Biden’s team has internalized — perhaps in response to the<strong> </strong>failures of the US response in 2014 — is that it needed European allies to check Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. The Biden administration has put a huge emphasis on working with NATO, the European Union, and individual European partners to counter Putin. “Europeans are utterly dependent on us for their security. They know it, they engage with us about it all the time, we have an alliance in which we’re at the epicenter,” said Max Bergmann of the Center for American Progress.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1A4YctS_LCkB5vPWWZ4DeOOBwWM=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23227222/GettyImages_1368956840.jpg"/> <cite>Omar Marques/Getty Images</cite></p>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
US troops exit a transport aircraft in Rzeszow, Poland, on February 6, as tensions between the NATO alliance and Russia continue to intensify.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="pcyULS">
|
|||
|
|
What happens if Russia invades?
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ad5jHY">
|
|||
|
|
In 2014, Putin deployed unconventional tactics against Ukraine that have come to be known as “hybrid” warfare, such as irregular militias, cyber hacks, and disinformation.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="AnQOpQ">
|
|||
|
|
These tactics surprised the West, including those within the Obama administration. It also allowed Russia to deny its direct involvement. In 2014, in the Donbas region, military units of “<a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-crimea/29790037.html">little green men</a>” — soldiers in uniform but without official insignia — moved in with equipment. <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-11-24/russia-has-deployed-thousands-of-tanks-troops-to-ukraine-
|
|||
|
|
top-official-says">Moscow has fueled unrest since</a>, and has <a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/why-did-russia-
|
|||
|
|
escalate-its-gray-zone-conflict-ukraine">continued to destabilize and undermine Ukraine</a> through cyberattacks on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russian-military-was-behind-notpetya-cyberattack-in-
|
|||
|
|
ukraine-cia-concludes/2018/01/12/048d8506-f7ca-11e7-b34a-b85626af34ef_story.html">critical infrastructure</a> and <a href="https://jsis.washington.edu/news/russia-disinformation-ukraine/">disinformation campaigns</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="A7GO5e">
|
|||
|
|
It is possible that Moscow will take aggressive steps in all sorts of ways that don’t involve moving Russian troops across the border. It could escalate its proxy war, and launch sweeping disinformation campaigns and hacking operations. (It will also probably do these things if it does move troops into Ukraine.)
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QfenBd">
|
|||
|
|
But this route looks a lot like the one Russia has already taken, and it hasn’t gotten Moscow closer to its objectives. “How much more can you destabilize? It doesn’t seem to have had a massive damaging impact on Ukraine’s pursuit of democracy, or even its tilt toward the West,” said Margarita Konaev, associate director of analysis and research fellow at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="icCU5u">
|
|||
|
|
And that might prompt Moscow to see more force as the solution.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LiOf1z">
|
|||
|
|
There are plenty of possible <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-
|
|||
|
|
possible-invasion-ukraine">scenarios</a> for a Russian invasion, including sending more troops into the breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/if-russia-launches-attack-
|
|||
|
|
ukraine-what-might-it-look-here-n1287369">seizing strategic regions and blockading Ukraine’s access to waterways</a>, and even a full-on war, with Moscow marching on Kyiv in an attempt to retake the entire country. Any of it could be devastating, though the more expansive the operation, the more catastrophic.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zE08EjoxxODyORfrQNDeg4rejRM=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23227420/GettyImages_1238160806.jpg"/> <cite>Gavriil Grigorov/TASS via Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Russian and Belarusian forces conduct training exercises at a firing range in the Brest region of Belarus on Feburary 3.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="e7Icgu">
|
|||
|
|
A full-on invasion to seize all of Ukraine would be something Europe hasn’t seen in decades. It could involve urban warfare, including on the streets of Kyiv, and airstrikes on urban centers. It would cause astounding humanitarian consequences, including a refugee crisis. The US has estimated the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/05/us/politics/russia-ukraine-invasion.html">civilian death toll could exceed 50,000</a>, with somewhere between 1 million and 5 million refugees. Konaev noted that all urban warfare is harsh, but Russia’s fighting — <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/world/middleeast/russia-bombing-syrian-
|
|||
|
|
hospitals.html">witnessed in places like Syria</a> — has been “particularly devastating, with very little regard for civilian protection.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="efhs1R">
|
|||
|
|
The colossal scale of such an offensive also makes it the least likely, experts say, and it would carry tremendous costs for Russia. “I think Putin himself knows that the stakes are really high,” Natia Seskuria, a fellow at the UK think tank Royal United Services Institute, said. “That’s why I think a full-scale invasion is a riskier option for Moscow in terms of potential political and economic causes — but also due to the number of casualties. Because if we compare Ukraine in 2014 to the Ukrainian army and its capabilities right now, they are much more capable.” (Western training and arms sales have something to do with those increased capabilities, to be sure.)
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Lun3dS">
|
|||
|
|
Such an invasion would force Russia to move into areas that are bitterly hostile toward it. That increases the likelihood of a prolonged resistance (possibly even one <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden-military.html">backed by the US</a>) — and an invasion could turn into an occupation. “The sad reality is that Russia could take as much of Ukraine as it wants, but it can’t hold it,” said Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="4jqLNH">
|
|||
|
|
What happens now?
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="icwysl">
|
|||
|
|
Ukraine has derailed the grand plans of the Biden administration — China, climate change, the pandemic — and become a top-level priority for the US, at least for the near term.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="xgWjtX">
|
|||
|
|
“One thing we’ve seen in common between the Obama administration and the Biden administration: They don’t view Russia as a geopolitical event-shaper, but we see Russia again and again shaping geopolitical events,” said Rachel Rizzo, a researcher at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OS6tzd">
|
|||
|
|
The United States <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-orders-3-000-troops-to-bolster-european-allies-in-russia-ukraine-
|
|||
|
|
crisis-11643810404">has deployed 3,000 troops to Europe in a show of solidarity for NATO</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-us-send-3000-additional-troops-poland-officials-
|
|||
|
|
say-2022-02-11/">will reportedly send another 3,000 to Poland</a>, though the Biden administration has been firm that US soldiers will not fight in Ukraine if war breaks out.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="F9Gj9j">
|
|||
|
|
The Biden administration, along with its European allies, <a href="https://www.vox.com/22916773/russia-ukraine-sanctions-putin">is trying to come up with an aggressive plan to punish Russia</a>, should it invade again. The so-called nuclear options — such as an oil and gas embargo, or cutting Russia off from SWIFT, the electronic messaging service that makes global financial transactions possible — seem unlikely, in part because of the ways it could hurt the global economy. Russia isn’t an Iran or North Korea; it is a major economy that does a lot of trade, especially in raw materials and gas and oil.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt=" " src="https://cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/thumbor/dZXRfVOdOGhigmHLD_VM4kq6SYY=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-
|
|||
|
|
cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23227287/GettyImages_1234443411.jpg"/> <cite>Peter Kovalev/TASS via Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
A worker at a compressor station for the Nord Stream 2 offshore natural gas pipeline, in Ust-Luga, Russia, in July 2021. Once operational, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline will supply gas from Russia to Germany.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aAtIJk">
|
|||
|
|
“Types of sanctions that hurt your target also hurt the sender. Ultimately, it comes down to the price the populations in the United States and Europe are prepared to pay,” said Richard Connolly, a lecturer in political economy at the Centre for Russian and East European Studies at the University of Birmingham.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="L1my5I">
|
|||
|
|
Right now, the toughest sanctions the Biden administration is reportedly considering are some level of financial sanctions on Russia’s biggest banks — a step the Obama administration didn’t take in 2014 — and an export ban on advanced technologies. Penalties on Russian oligarchs and others close to the regime are likely also on the table, as are some other forms of targeted sanctions. <a href="https://www.vox.com/22881709/nord-
|
|||
|
|
stream-2-russia-ukraine-germany-united-states-cruz">Nord Stream 2</a>, the completed but not yet open gas pipeline between Germany and Russia, may also be killed if Russia escalates tensions.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="APvnup">
|
|||
|
|
Putin himself has to decide what he wants. “He has two options,” said Olga Lautman, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. One is “to say, ‘Never mind, just kidding,’ which will show his weakness and shows that he was intimidated by US and Europe standing together — and that creates weakness for him at home and with countries he’s attempting to influence.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eDi4MS">
|
|||
|
|
“Or he goes full forward with an attack,” she said. “At this point, we don’t know where it’s going, but the prospects are very grim.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="yomaI1">
|
|||
|
|
This is the corner Putin has put himself in, which makes a walk-back from Russia seem difficult to fathom. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, and it doesn’t eliminate the possibility of some sort of diplomatic solution that gives Putin enough cover to declare victory without the West meeting all of his demands. It also doesn’t eliminate the possibility that Russia and the US will be stuck in this standoff for months longer, with Ukraine caught in the middle and under sustained threat from Russia.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="stDwzQ">
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But it also means the prospect of war remains. In Ukraine, though, that is everyday life.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="dAwhWC">
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“For many Ukrainians, we’re accustomed to war,” <a href="https://www.vox.com/22902846/ukraine-russia-nato-
|
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|
|
zelensky-poroshenko">said Oleksiy Sorokin</a>,<strong> </strong>the political editor and chief operating officer of the English-language <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/about/">Kyiv Independent</a> publication.
|
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fGI1Dt">
|
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“Having Russia on our tail,” he added, “having this constant threat of Russia going further — I think many Ukrainians are used to it.”
|
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|
</p>
|
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|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
|
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|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Three-member Committee of Administrators named to run TTFI</strong> - Suspended office-bearers ordered to assist CoA</p></li>
|
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|
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<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Auction dynamics were very different and challenging this time: Kumble</strong> - Simon Katich, the assistant coach at Sunrisers Hyderabad, said getting Rahul Tripathi was a “big plus” for them.</p></li>
|
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|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>England batter Liam Livingstone fetches ₹11.50 crore from Punjab Kings</strong> - Cheteshwar Pujara predictably went unsold at the auction while Ajinkya Rahane got a base price of ₹1 crore from Kolkata Knight Riders</p></li>
|
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|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>IPL Auction 2022 live updates | Rajasthan loses Jofra Archer, Mumbai gets him for ₹8 crore</strong> - Mumbai gets lethal pace pair in Jasprit Bumrah and Jofra Archer</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Havertz's late penalty seals world club crown for Chelsea</strong> - Chelsea have won every major club trophy since Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich took control in 2003</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Parvatipuram people oppose naming new district as Manyam</strong> - Investments may be hit due to tribal tag, say leaders</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>T.N. Chief Minister Stalin writes to PM Modi on the arrest of fishermen by Sri Lankan Navy</strong> - Today, 12 fishermen have been apprehended; such incidents are causing deep distress to people, he says in the letter</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Health Ministry seeks NMC’s view on uniform stipend for medical interns</strong> - MP highlights lack of parity in stipend in private and government colleges</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>There will be no water logging in Thoothukudi next year: Kanimozhi</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Water level</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine tensions: US defends evacuating embassy as Zelensky urges calm</strong> - The “imminent” threat of Russian invasion justifies action, Secretary of State Antony Blinken says.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine tensions: After eight years of war, an eastern city unifies against Russia</strong> - Separatists tried to seize Kharkiv in 2014. Now the city is turning away from its old neighbour.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ukraine crisis: ‘We don’t have the option to leave’</strong> - Britons in Ukraine are weighing up whether they can escape as fears of a Russian invasion mount.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Swiss vote on tobacco ad ban long after neighbours</strong> - Most European countries banned tobacco ads years ago, but the Swiss are yet to tighten their laws.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Winter Olympics: Kamila Valieva’s entourage to be investigated by Wada</strong> - Scrutiny of those around Kamila Valieva increases after the World Anti-Doping Agency says it will investigate the adults working with the teenager.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Renewables are cheaper than ever—why are household energy bills only going up?</strong> - New energy needs a new market. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1833575">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Astronomers now say the rocket about to strike the Moon is not a Falcon 9</strong> - It’s probable that the impact object comes from a Chinese rocket launched in 2014. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1833819">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Review: The Book of Boba Fett is lots of fun but it’s really The Mandalorian 2.5</strong> - The series never really figured out whose story it wanted to tell. This is not the way. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1832888">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The weekend’s best deals: Kindle Paperwhite, Nintendo Switch, and more</strong> - Dealmaster also includes the Google Chromecast, AirPods Pro, and Amazon Fire tablets. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1833708">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Five electric SUVs by 2026 are key to Lincoln’s future</strong> - Its first BEV is due this year. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1833512">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>Devil: This is the lake of lava you will be spending eternity in</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Me: Actually, since we’re underground, it would be magma
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Devil: You understand this is why you’re here, right?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Gil-Gandel"> /u/Gil-Gandel </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/srfk5s/devil_this_is_the_lake_of_lava_you_will_be/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/srfk5s/devil_this_is_the_lake_of_lava_you_will_be/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>Last year a guy took his Blonde girl friend to the Superbowl</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
They had great seats right behind their team’s bench.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
After the game, he asked her how she liked it.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
“Oh, I really liked it,” she replied, "especially the
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
tight pants and all the big muscles, but I just couldn’t
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
understand why they were killing each other over 25 cents."
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Dumbfounded, her boyfriend asked, "What do you
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
mean?"
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
"Well, they flipped a coin, one team got it, then for the rest of the game, all they kept screaming was…
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
‘Get the quarterback! Get the quarterback!’
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
I’m like…Helloooooo? It’s only 25 cents!"
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/YZXFILE"> /u/YZXFILE </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sr4iym/last_year_a_guy_took_his_blonde_girl_friend_to/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sr4iym/last_year_a_guy_took_his_blonde_girl_friend_to/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>Since I got married I’ve been having sex almost every day</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Almost on Monday
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Almost on Tuesday…
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/BarelyLegalSeagull"> /u/BarelyLegalSeagull </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sqyd4f/since_i_got_married_ive_been_having_sex_almost/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sqyd4f/since_i_got_married_ive_been_having_sex_almost/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>Penguin blowjob</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
I asked a prostitute for sex but she refused because I only had $5. She instead offered me a ‘penguin blowjob’. I had no idea what it was but thought for $5, that was a pretty good deal.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
She took off my belt and lowered my trousers and underpants to my ankles and began sucking. As things were heating up, she stopped, turned around and started walking away. I ran after her with my trousers and underpants still around my ankles, pleading for her to finish
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/secretaccount4posts"> /u/secretaccount4posts </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sr2jsz/penguin_blowjob/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sr2jsz/penguin_blowjob/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>Why do Norwegians have barcodes on their battleships?</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF -->
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
So they can Scandinavian
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/spam219"> /u/spam219 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sqqt9f/why_do_norwegians_have_barcodes_on_their/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/sqqt9f/why_do_norwegians_have_barcodes_on_their/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
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|
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|
|
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