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788 lines
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<meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, user-scalable=yes" name="viewport"/>
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<title>03 January, 2023</title>
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<title>Daily-Dose</title><meta content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" name="viewport"/><link href="styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><link href="../styles/simple.css" rel="stylesheet"/><style>*{overflow-x:hidden;}</style><link href="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.css" rel="stylesheet"/><script src="https://unpkg.com/aos@2.3.1/dist/aos.js"></script></head>
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<body>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-down" id="daily-dose">Daily-Dose</h1>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" data-aos-anchor-placement="top-bottom" id="contents">Contents</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><a href="#from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-vox">From Vox</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</a></li>
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<li><a href="#from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</a></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-new-yorker">From New Yorker</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Case for Wearing Masks Forever</strong> - A ragtag coalition of public-health activists believe that America’s pandemic restrictions are too lax—and they say they have the science to prove it. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-activism/the-case-for-wearing-masks-forever">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>From Climate Exhortation to Climate Execution</strong> - The Inflation Reduction Act finally offers a chance for widespread change. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/from-climate-exhortation-to-climate-execution">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Kirk Douglas, the Guitarist for the Roots, Revamps the Holiday Classics</strong> - A bona-fide guitar hero puts a fresh spin on some holiday classics. And the former United States Poet Laureate Tracy K. Smith on reading poetry across the political divide. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/the-new-yorker-radio-hour/kirk-douglas-the-guitarist-for-the-roots-revamps-the-holiday-classics">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Water Wranglers of the West Are Struggling to Save the Colorado River</strong> - Farmers, bureaucrats, and water negotiators converged on Caesars Palace, in Las Vegas, to fight over the future of the drought-stricken Southwest. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-southwest/the-water-wranglers-of-the-west-are-struggling-to-save-the-colorado-river">link</a></p></li>
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>The Devastating New History of the January 6th Insurrection</strong> - The House report describes both a catastrophe and a way forward. - <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/american-chronicles/the-devastating-new-history-of-the-january-sixth-insurrection">link</a></p></li>
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</ul>
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<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-vox">From Vox</h1>
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<ul>
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<li><strong>How you can take advantage of tax breaks in the Inflation Reduction Act</strong> -
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<figure>
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Zj7ABbwdSFVqcqkGaHXjiFbXOPM=/453x146:2574x1737/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71818056/GettyImages_1238323187a.0.jpg"/>
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<figcaption>
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Solar contractors lift solar panels onto the roof of a home in Hayward, California, on February 8. | David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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Make a home energy audit your resolution for 2023.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1YO1p1">
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On January 1, Americans became eligible to save thousands of dollars when they buy electric cars, induction stoves, and modern appliances <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/7/28/23281757/whats-in-climate-bill-inflation-reduction-act">under the Inflation Reduction Act</a> that Democrats passed last fall.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ctgqGy">
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Most American homes still use fossil fuels, specifically natural gas, for heating, cooking, and hot water. To reach the Biden administration’s goal of slashing buildings’ climate footprint in half by 2032, many of those homes will need to be electrified. Swapping out the gas stove for induction and a natural gas furnace for an electric heat pump plugs the building more fully into the electric grid. Today, that grid might still be powered by some coal and gas, but years from now, it will run predominantly on clean energy like wind and solar. Electrifying homes now is key to reducing the US carbon pollution in the decades to come.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="AhLlbI">
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A major part of the new law’s $369 billion for climate initiatives is rebates and tax credits aimed at helping consumers switch from fossil fuels to electricity. While the IRA also includes big payouts for utilities and manufacturers to boost a cleaner economy domestically, the consumer incentives address a different set of problems — rising energy bills, and tackling the most stubborn sources of greenhouse gas pollution.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pApsHL">
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There’s money for rooftop solar; electric vehicles, clothes dryers, stoves, and ovens; heat pumps for heating, cooling, and hot water; electric panels and wiring. The law also includes programs that cover the costs of insulation and weatherization to cut a building’s energy usage.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pK1vgh">
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Not everyone will need to replace their furnace, car, or stove in 2023. But even if you aren’t planning to do so, or you don’t own your home, there are ways the IRA’s incentives can apply, and it’s important to start thinking about them early to take full advantage.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="aGHpD4">
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Home renovations are a big investment and difficult to time right. The worst case is to find yourself with a broken system and long <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2022/10/8/23387530/home-electrification-heat-pumps-gas-furnace-contractors">wait times for a contractor</a>, let alone one who’s up to date on the best available technology. That’s why if you’re going to make one goal for 2023, it should be to evaluate what you have and what you’ll need.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mWbivy">
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“Embrace the notion that electrification is what we all need to do eventually,” said Craig Aaker of Green Savers, an Oregon-based home performance contractor. There’s no point to upgrade a furnace, unless it’s switching to a heat pump, he added: “At this point, I certainly wouldn’t spend any money fixing a furnace if it goes out. Just take that money and turn it into an investment.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ye243d">
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The best place to start is an energy audit, which identifies where your home is inefficient, any problem areas like drafty windows, and any fixes that could make it cost less in energy bills and more comfortable. A <a href="https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/professional-home-energy-assessments">professional one</a> will run around $150 (though the Department of Energy has a <a href="https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/home-energy-assessments">guide for a DIY option</a>). Not all of the suggestions are expensive upgrades, and probably fall under one of the categories of improvements eligible for tax breaks.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QNnqwy">
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“The nice thing about the Inflation Reduction Act is it effectively creates an electric bank account for every household in America that they can access when the time is right for them,” said Ari Matusiak, CEO of the electrification advocacy group Rewiring America.
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</p>
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<h3 id="ojhB6k">
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Just some of the tax credits available in 2023
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</h3>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5L5Gea">
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There are two main buckets of incentives available — tax credits that can be redeemed when you file your taxes the following year, and rebates that lower the upfront cost of installation and machines.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="fQwOFX">
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Tax credits will last through 2032 without any cap on their cost, barring a dramatic reversal by a future Congress. Some funding for rebates is set aside for low and middle-income people, those earning between 80 and 150 percent of an area’s median income, and does have a cap on spending, so the law may run out of money before the 10 years are up.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pVEgbk">
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Some rebates might not kick in <a href="https://www.rewiringamerica.org/app/ira-calculator">until later in 2023,</a> because states have to set up their own programs and guidance for who qualifies. For lower-income people earning less than 80 percent of an area’s income, the rebates will eventually cover most if not all of the costs of the technology and installations. Middle-income people, earning between 80 and 150 percent of an area’s income, would see a portion of the costs covered. The rebates will be an upfront discount, offered at sale.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="M83d69">
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More information on rebates is coming in 2023. For now, the tax credits are available, and can be a little complicated. Some are capped based on cost and income levels, or, like the 25C tax credits, apply to multiple categories.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="KjmgEf">
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If you want to dig into these tax breaks further, <a href="https://www.rewiringamerica.org/IRAguide">Rewiring America</a> has a useful guide, and the White House has a <a href="https://cleanenergy.gov/">dedicated website</a> to unpacking the IRA. The other page to bookmark is the <a href="https://www.irs.gov/inflation-reduction-act-of-2022">IRS guidance</a>, which will be updated throughout the year.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="foZQx2">
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Here is some of the technology you might want to think about upgrading or replacing, taking advantage of the tax credits available January 1 through the IRA:
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="AJfO8K">
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<strong>Breaker box</strong>
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5OKLcy">
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The electrical panel, or breaker box, is the foundation for the electricity flowing into your home. The panel size matters if you’re planning on adding tons of new plug-in appliances, because older homes may have a much smaller capacity.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="G65poN">
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The tax credits cover 30 percent of the panel upgrade, capped at $600 resetting each year (this is uncapped if it pairs with a rooftop solar installation).
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Rf2iII">
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<strong>Rooftop solar</strong>
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="L7psrM">
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In the long run, rooftop solar can slash bills by hundreds of dollars each year, and come through as a backup electricity source in a storm when paired with battery storage. It’s also electricity that doesn’t contribute to the climate crisis.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oZy6St">
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The tax credit would cover 30 percent of the cost of installing rooftop solar. Rewiring America estimates that the average 6kW rooftop solar installation costs about $19,000, so the average tax credit would be around $4,700.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uViyYa">
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<strong>Heat pumps for heating, AC, and water heaters</strong>
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jKppo9">
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Heat pumps are <a href="https://rmi.org/its-time-to-incentivize-residential-heat-pumps/">up to four times</a> more efficient than the best gas furnaces, because they essentially redirect cold air from one area to another. The technology is relatively unfamiliar in the US compared to Europe, but is catching on.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="r01BXA">
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There are a few different kinds of heat pumps, which are especially good to consider if you currently rely on gas for your clothes dryer, your AC, heating, or hot water.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BEydU4">
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The tax credit covers 30 percent of the cost of heat pumps for air and water, capped at $2,000 each year, but resets annually so it can be used for other projects.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LXZwvV">
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Aaker, of Green Savers, explained that it’s worth considering what you have already for water heating, too. “If you have natural gas or a resistance electric water heater, which are the two most common types, you can save real money. The thing that we sell that has the highest payback is heat pump water heaters.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eEByrQ">
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<strong>Weatherization and insulation </strong>
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="92gctS">
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By sealing doors and windows, and adding insulation, a home could be much more comfortable to live in and require less money to heat and cool. The first step to figuring out what a space needs is getting an energy audit done by a professional, who evaluates what kinds of insulation and sealing will be the most useful. The IRA offers a 30 percent tax credit back for an energy audit, and on upgrades for <a href="https://www.energystar.gov/products/ask-the-experts/the-tax-credits-for-energy-efficient-upgrades-are-back">insulation, doors, and windows</a>.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bqDENA">
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<strong>Residential battery system</strong>
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MqudpG">
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Battery storage can help power appliances in the home, even if there is a major storm outage. The tax credit for this is uncapped, offering 30 percent back on battery storage. The average cost is $16,000, so the average credit delivers about $4,800.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3fV4jx">
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<strong>Electric vehicles</strong>
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9iURvQ">
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If you earn under $112,500, or under $150,000 for joint filers, there are two relevant tax credits for new and used EVs. For vehicles that are under $55,000 and vans and SUVs under $80,000, consumers could get $7,500 off. If buying a used EV, they could get up to $4,000 off. The Department of Energy has an <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/electric-vehicles-for-tax-credit">initial list</a> of qualifying cars here.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="APhJFw">
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In 2024, these credits will change into upfront discounts provided by dealers at the point of sale.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FaWToj">
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<strong>Additional rebates available later in 2023</strong>
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BraN0i">
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There are going to be more rebates available for all the above categories, aimed at lower and moderate income levels, later in 2023. There are also added categories that will be eligible for rebates, including induction stoves, ovens, and clothes dryers.
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</p></li>
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<li><strong>What the split Congress can actually accomplish in 2023</strong> -
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<figure>
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<img alt="Kevin McCarthy walking along a hallway with two other guys in suits." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2AjuAvd4pDKViMoIFNpX0IEPiIc=/411x0:5744x4000/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71818039/1244787014.0.jpg"/>
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<figcaption>
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Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) on Capitol Hill on Monday, November 14, 2022. | Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
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</figcaption>
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</figure>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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Divided government is back, baby.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3izgVB">
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<a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/11/8/21539959/election-2020-house-democrats-control-majority">After two years of unified Democratic control</a>, a split Congress is upon us again in 2023.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="oOv8Jj">
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This time, it comes in the form of <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23425051/midterm-elections-2022-senate-majority-congress-democrats-cortez-masto">a Democrat-controlled Senate</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23439492/midterm-elections-2022-results-house-majority-republicans">a Republican-controlled House</a>. Both have their own policy priorities and are expected to clash over a series of must-pass bills <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/11/16/23433281/congress-debt-ceiling-house-midterms-spending-cuts-lame-duck-session">on the debt ceiling</a>, government funding, and agriculture policy. Because there’s likely to be little Democrats and Republicans agree on, each majority has signaled it plans to focus on what can be done unilaterally: <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/5/2/23048641/senate-majority-democrats-control-midterms">Senate Democrats will be committed to advancing judges</a>, while House Republicans have laid out a game plan for <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23439492/midterm-elections-2022-results-house-majority-republicans">scrutinizing the Biden administration</a>.
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</p>
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Below is a look at what both chambers could prioritize, and a glimpse of some longer-shot issue areas where they could collaborate.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
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|
<h3 id="JEwlCA">
|
|||
|
|
What the House wants
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="incEgy">
|
|||
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|
House Republicans have been clear that investigations of Biden administration officials will be a central focus in the new term, and that they aim to home in on specific individuals, including <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3774233-house-republicans-ramp-up-calls-to-impeach-dhs-secretary-mayorkas/">Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas</a>, who they claim has exacerbated the border security crisis. In a press conference last winter, some conservative lawmakers indicated that they were interested in impeachment, arguing that Mayorkas has not sufficiently deterred migrants at the border.
|
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</p>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="NUu9gI">
|
|||
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|
“If Secretary Mayorkas does not resign, House Republicans will investigate every order, every action, and every failure will determine whether we can begin an impeachment inquiry,” likely Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) <a href="https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1595173901188755456">said in November</a>. Republicans’ targeting of Mayorkas, ultimately, would be more of a symbolic and messaging tactic. Even if they impeached Mayorkas, the Democratic-controlled Senate is unlikely to vote to remove him. Instead, any investigation or impeachment trial would function as a way to keep the issue of border security in the spotlight ahead of 2024.
|
|||
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</p>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="YqmoRP">
|
|||
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|
Other issues that House Republicans have cited as key investigatory targets include the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Attorney General Merrick Garland’s handling of the Justice Department, and the business dealings of Biden’s son Hunter Biden. Congress is limited in how it can follow through on investigations as lawmakers are unable to bring criminal charges, but they, as <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/12/19/23512985/january-6-committee-trump-criminal-referral">Democratic lawmakers recently did with former President Donald Trump</a>, can recommend the Department of Justice bring charges. Failing that, lawmakers can draw negative attention to the administration, which could be valuable before the presidential election.
|
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</p>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bqIrzF">
|
|||
|
|
Beyond these investigations, McCarthy has laid out a legislative agenda called the <a href="https://www.republicanleader.gov/commitment/">“Commitment to America,”</a> which sets up four pillars the party will focus on, including the economy, safety, individual freedom, and government accountability. Policies that are part of this proposal include everything from retention and recruitment bonuses for law enforcement to a parent’s bill of rights that supports feedback on school curriculums.
|
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|
</p>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TgVUFJ">
|
|||
|
|
Of these proposals, Republicans have said that some of the earliest ones they aim to work on include bills that beef up border security resources like physical barriers at <a href="https://rollcall.com/2022/12/08/house-gop-details-border-security-initiatives-for-next-congress/">the southern border,</a> and legislation that tries to roll back $80 billion in funding for the IRS that Democrats passed in the Inflation Reduction Act. Republicans have argued that these funds, which would hire tens of thousands more IRS agents, would be used to unfairly target people.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5sjTHx">
|
|||
|
|
“On our very first bill, we’re going to repeal 87,000 IRS agents. Our job is to work for you, not go after you,” <a href="https://federalnewsnetwork.com/budget/2022/09/house-gop-leaders-vow-to-undo-80b-to-rebuild-irs-if-party-regains-majority/">McCarthy has said</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="FoCocN">
|
|||
|
|
Many of these bills will likely be stymied in the Senate, and McCarthy may have some difficulty getting these plans through the House, too. His narrow majority could make it tougher for the GOP to stick together depending on whether he’s able to get the most conservative and moderate parts of the caucus onboard. Doing so could prove particularly difficult with more contentious strategies, like impeachment of different officials.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="038TTY">
|
|||
|
|
What the Senate wants
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4A89eF">
|
|||
|
|
One of the most impactful things the Democrat-controlled Senate can do on its own is to keep on stacking the courts with Democrat-leaning judges, after Republicans did the same for years during the Trump administration. According to progressive group Demand Justice, there are 69 judicial vacancies that do not have a nominee, as of late December, and 44 nominees pending confirmation.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pwpNtN">
|
|||
|
|
Thus far, Biden has already seen the highest number of judges confirmed of any recent president at this point in their term, including one Supreme Court justice, 28 circuit court judges, and 68 district court judges. That number surpasses the more than 80 judges confirmed in Trump’s first two years. Biden’s nominations have also included a more diverse slate of nominees, featuring a higher concentration of women of color and public defenders. Democrats have a chance to continue this trend in the new term and expedite some of these confirmations.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="AqDqKW">
|
|||
|
|
While Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) has <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23501599/kyrsten-sinema-inevitable-democrat-arizona-2024">changed her party affiliation to independent</a>, she’s said she does not intend to caucus with Republicans, meaning Democrats will likely be able to hold <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/09/sinema-arizona-senate-independent-00073216">committee majorities in the new term</a>. Having this majority could help Democrats more quickly move judges even in the case of tie committee votes. The Senate’s current 50-50 split has meant tie votes have required a special, more time-consuming procedure to advance to the floor. Now, even if Sinema doesn’t caucus with Democrats, the party will have a one-seat majority, giving it more sway over committee procedure.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ESFpmz">
|
|||
|
|
Beyond judicial nominees, there are a lot of policies that Democrats were not able to get through by the end of the year that they could try to keep on pushing in the new term. One such proposal is a bill that would enable banks to work with marijuana retailers in states where weed has been legalized. That legislation was among those that lawmakers tried to squeeze into year-end spending legislation, though it was blocked by Republican leaders.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="emjfrH">
|
|||
|
|
“It is bipartisan, it has the support of many different groups. We’re going to go back at it next year,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a December press conference. This bill has also picked up <a href="https://www.marijuanamoment.net/key-gop-congressman-keeps-door-open-for-marijuana-banking-in-2023-while-law-enforcement-steps-up-push-for-passage-in-lame-duck/">bipartisan support in the House</a>, a factor that could make it more tenable.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="j2r6En">
|
|||
|
|
Immigration reform is another issue that fell by the wayside at the end of the year, which lawmakers have said they hope to revisit. A compromise on the matter has long proved elusive for Congress, and its chances remain slim in the face of House Republicans’ focus on making the subject a political wedge. Still, Sinema is among the senators who’s said she intends to try again in 2023.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gOKqwo">
|
|||
|
|
“When we come back to Congress in January, one of the first things I’ll do with Sen. [Thom] Tillis (R-NC) is convene a bipartisan group of senators who are willing and committed to get something done,” Sinema said in a recent floor speech. In December, Sinema and Tillis released a compromise framework that included a pathway to citizenship for DACA recipients, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/12/6/23497262/immigration-reform-sinema-tillis-bill-border">as well as more border security resources</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ITullW">
|
|||
|
|
The White House has also offered some early signs of the economic agenda that it hopes to push in 2023, much of which will encounter big challenges in a split Congress, too. Elements of that agenda could center on reducing child care and elder care costs for families, both subjects the administration previously fell short trying to tackle in reconciliation bills, and both which are aimed at boosting workforce participation.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kSkeEo">
|
|||
|
|
“When we look at areas where we can make progress, one is on helping working parents,” National Economic Council Director Brian Deese <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-looks-at-increasing-benefits-to-lure-americans-back-into-workforce-11671574992">told the Wall Street Journal</a>. “Providing quality, affordable child care actually helps to reduce cost burdens on families and gets more people working.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TLjL1H">
|
|||
|
|
Other policies that Democrats have been unable to pass during their tenure, including an expanded child tax credit, could come up again, though most are set to have a tough time making more progress because of House Republican resistance.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="Xziejx">
|
|||
|
|
Where the House and Senate will probably clash
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="W5Ve8I">
|
|||
|
|
There are a couple different must-pass bills that are set to fuel clashes between the House and the Senate.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="lwlGB6">
|
|||
|
|
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) laid these out <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/19/jim-jordan-gop-majority-00062411">in an interview with Politico</a> last October: They include the debt ceiling, government funding, and the farm bill, all must-pass bills to keep the US running, making each an opportunity for House Republicans to hold up legislation to make other demands.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="eMH2Ch">
|
|||
|
|
Sometime in 2023, lawmakers will have to raise the debt ceiling, the amount that the US is able to borrow, with the potential for economic collapse if they fail to do so. Historically, Republicans have been more willing to risk a default on the debt ceiling, using Democrats’ fear of financial catastrophe to extract spending cuts. Republicans have already signaled a willingness to employ this strategy again, with McCarthy noting ahead of the midterms that there would be some requests made in exchange for GOP support.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uOxyiE">
|
|||
|
|
“If you’re going to give a person a higher limit, wouldn’t you first say you should change your behavior, so you just don’t keep raising and all the time?” <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/politics/kevin-mccarthy-debt-limit/index.html">he told CNN</a>. Some <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/gop-members-of-congress-threaten-debt-limit-default-to-cut-social-security-and-medicare/">conservative House Republicans</a> have signaled that they’re interested in more aggressive demands including possible cuts to Social Security and Medicare.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="xe9SXK">
|
|||
|
|
Government funding bills could be another inflection point for a standoff between the two chambers, with Republicans eager to curtail spending for social programs. If Congress fails to pass spending bills by October 1, the government risks a shutdown that furloughs workers and delays key services.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nCGlKB">
|
|||
|
|
The farm bill, which conservative lawmakers have also withheld support for in the past, is a third chance for House lawmakers to extract concessions. Legislation that Congress has to renew roughly every five years, the farm bill authorizes many of the Agriculture Department’s programs, including SNAP. <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/18/farm-bill-fails-597661">Previously, the Freedom Caucus</a> sank a Republican farm bill in 2018 when they called for an immigration vote as a condition for its passage.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="Rkbv1W">
|
|||
|
|
Where they could actually work together
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Hawqk8">
|
|||
|
|
The likelihood of passing more ambitious legislation, like the American Rescue Plan or the Inflation Reduction Act, is much lower in a split Congress, though there are still some long-shot areas both parties have expressed interest in.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JZKiJI">
|
|||
|
|
One of these is <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/12/12/23500140/permitting-reform-inflation-reduction-act-congress-manchin">permitting reform</a>, which would expedite federal permit approvals for fossil fuel projects as well as clean energy projects, enabling them to get completed more quickly. House Republicans have cited the issue as a piece of their legislative agenda, arguing that the government is getting in the way of innovation and business. Democrats, meanwhile, have suggested that reforms are important to help put funding from green energy proposals and legislation like the infrastructure bill to use more quickly. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has made permitting reform one of his chief priorities as well, in order to approve the Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline in his home state of West Virginia.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="vGNDsQ">
|
|||
|
|
This past year, permitting reforms failed due to outcry from progressives about the inclusion of guaranteed approval for the pipeline as well as attempts the latest version of the bill appeared to make to curtail community feedback on new energy projects. Republicans, though they’re also interested in permitting reform, largely opposed the measure because they weren’t interested in giving Manchin a win. The two chambers could try to work on a compromise next year, though some of those same outstanding issues could play a role again.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="LWD6QS">
|
|||
|
|
As Sinema alluded to, immigration reform is also an issue that remains on the table, with Democrats interested in prioritizing DACA recipients, and Republicans looking to beef up resources along the border. It’s long been a subject that lawmakers have struggled with in Congress, though they’ve said they hope to keep working at it.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Y1wiZG">
|
|||
|
|
Foreign policy is another area where there could be more bipartisan collaboration: This past year, the CHIPS Act, which is designed to invest in US supply chains so that the country can more effectively compete against the progress being made in other places, like China, was among the bipartisan packages that made it through. House Republicans have indicated that they’ll be focusing on scrutinizing the Chinese government, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/15/theres-bipartisan-potential-china-if-gop-wants-it/">which could draw some Democratic support as well</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ulWHRY">
|
|||
|
|
Backing for Ukraine as the Russian invasion continues has also had bipartisan backing thus far and could continue to see that, although a segment of conservative Republicans has begun vocalizing their opposition.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="m6Nt7g">
|
|||
|
|
Despite these challenges, Schumer sounded a hopeful note at a December press briefing, “This is my hope and prediction: not all the Republicans are MAGA,” he said. “I intend to reach out both in the Senate, and even in the House to some of the more mainstream Republicans, and say, let’s work together.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QGjbPR">
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="n8zwpg">
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><strong>23 things we think will happen in 2023</strong> -
|
|||
|
|
<figure>
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="Image of the year 2023" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/j-n7yLFg__amf-cKyvLG_RywGLw=/317x0:5384x3800/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71815124/GettyImages_1435964120.0.jpg"/>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Getty Images
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Will Biden and Trump remain the frontrunners? Will Putin remain in charge of Russia? Will China start a war? These and other forecasts of the year to come.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="bLyrdf">
|
|||
|
|
This will be the fourth year in a row that the staff of Future Perfect has given itself the task of trying to predict, well, the future. It’s in the name of the section, but forecasting is something that can benefit you as a thinker whether or not you can accurately see what’s to come. As my colleague Dylan Matthews <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022">wrote</a> last year, “the most critical skills for forecasting<strong> </strong>are thinking numerically, being open to changing your mind, updating your beliefs incrementally and frequently instead of in rare big moments, and — most encouragingly — practicing.” Practice makes Future Perfect, in other words.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9hEIpz">
|
|||
|
|
So here are our best guesses — with probabilities attached — to what we think will happen as some of the most important stories of 2023 unfold. Will we dip into a recession? Will inflation continue unchecked? Will China launch an invasion of Taiwan, and will Vladimir Putin still be president of Russia at year’s end? Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl? (This one might be of interest only to me.)
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0fTFJx">
|
|||
|
|
It’s important to remember that each prediction is made probabilistically, meaning we assign each event a probability of between 10 and 95 percent. A very high percentage — say, 80 percent — doesn’t mean that an event will definitely happen (something we all <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/">should have learned</a> after the 2016 election). It simply means that if we make five predictions at 80 percent, we expect four of them to come true. And we’ll be keeping track, reporting back next year on how we did. (You can read our review of our <a href="https://www.vox.com/e/23273634">2022 predictions</a> here.) —<em>Bryan Walsh</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="J9YQJ7">
|
|||
|
|
The United States
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="T6w2gX">
|
|||
|
|
Joe Biden will be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination heading into 2024 (70 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gEmx89">
|
|||
|
|
Presidential reelection years are approximately half as interesting to political reporters as open-seat races because only one party has competitive primaries. Naturally, this means that every such year features rampant speculation about improbable primary challenges or running mate swaps by the incumbent: Maybe <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/02/09/692808713/watch-what-we-re-doing-could-maryland-gov-larry-hogan-challenge-trump-in-2020">Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan would challenge Trump</a> in 2020! Or George W. Bush would <a href="https://www.today.com/popculture/will-giuliani-replace-cheney-04-wbna4065772">swap Dick Cheney for Rudy Giuliani</a> in 2004! (Neither happened.)
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<aside id="LbDord">
|
|||
|
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</aside>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="pXINaE">
|
|||
|
|
“<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-17/will-biden-run-again-in-2024-democrats-need-answer-by-spring">Will</a> <a href="https://time.com/6218733/should-joe-biden-run-again/">Biden</a> <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/20/bidens-age-raises-questions-around-2024-run-he-celebrates-80-years/10702780002/?gnt-cfr=1">run</a> <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3770095-majority-of-democratic-voters-say-biden-shouldnt-run-for-reelection-survey/">again</a>?” is perhaps the most understandable of these speculation cycles, given the incumbent’s age — he’d be 82 on Election Day 2025 — but I think it’s very unlikely he declines to run. The last two incumbents to decline an attempt at reelection (<a href="https://billofrightsinstitute.org/essays/lyndon-b-johnsons-decision-not-to-run-in-1968">Lyndon Johnson</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/29/truman-declines-to-seek-another-term-march-29-1952-1238358">Harry Truman</a>) were former vice presidents who ascended following the death of their predecessor, had already served more than a full term, were prosecuting increasingly unpopular wars, and, most importantly, faced tough primary challenges.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="syjjed">
|
|||
|
|
Biden, by contrast, is not facing any equivalently large backlash within the Democratic Party. Moreover, there seems to be a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20203009">substantial incumbency advantage to the presidency</a>, making Biden by far Democrats’ most electable option. That’s why I think he’ll be the frontrunner heading into the election year, as measured by <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-US-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination">Polymarket</a> (or, if Polymarket shuts down, another high-volume prediction market). —<em>Dylan Matthews </em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="0xBCeL">
|
|||
|
|
Donald Trump will be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination heading into 2024 (60 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="k7N5X9">
|
|||
|
|
We might as well start with the polls: Despite a recent <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/desantis-trump-2024-poll-suffolk/">dramatic outlier</a>, the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/">most recent ones listed by FiveThirtyEight</a> tend to show Trump ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has emerged as his most likely challenger.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="l3hfls">
|
|||
|
|
But of course, polls can only tell us so much this far out, especially in primaries, which tend to shift more rapidly and dramatically than general elections. Maybe Trump gets indicted by this or that prosecutor, which damages — or maybe helps! — his standing with GOP primary voters. While Trump dominated the 2016 primary cycle, there was a brief moment when <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2015/10/27/politics/ben-carson-donald-trump-cbs-poll">Ben Carson</a> was beating him. Anything’s possible.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="i67pGk">
|
|||
|
|
My belief that Trump’s the frontrunner (and will remain so <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-US-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination">per Polymarket</a> come December 2023) comes from having seen Trump perform in a competitive national primary before, and from knowing that DeSantis has not waged a campaign at this scale, and not against Trump.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="A Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sticker and one reading, ‘Trump 2024 No More Bullshit’, are plastered on a vehicle near the Mar-a-Lago home of former U.S. President Donald Trump before he speaks this evening on November 15, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qvajwtCJQ4VOxQyd9IH6Mrt7tMc=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24323527/GettyImages_1441714759.jpg"/> <cite>Joe Raedle/Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
A Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sticker and one reading “Trump 2024 No More Bullshit” are plastered on a vehicle near the Mar-a-Lago home of former US President Donald Trump before he speaks on November 15, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="x7sFbM">
|
|||
|
|
Those of us who watched all of the 2015 debates will recall that Trump wiped the floor with his myriad opponents. In retrospect, this makes total sense: He’s a TV star who has spent decades practicing that kind of performance. At the time, the conventional wisdom was that Trump’s performance in debates and ability to control the news cycle wouldn’t be enough to overcome his inexperience and alienating persona. But they were enough. I suspect they’ll be enough again, though the messiness of primaries means my confidence is relatively low. —<em>DM</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="4oTfeX">
|
|||
|
|
The Supreme Court will rule that affirmative action is unconstitutional (70 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="3rlWzm">
|
|||
|
|
My colleague <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/31/23433183/supreme-court-affirmative-action-harvard-unc-race">Ian Millhiser listened to the oral arguments</a> in the <em>Students for Fair Admissions</em> cases challenging affirmative action at both the University of North Carolina and Harvard, and left persuaded that explicit racial preferences for admission are a goner: “Even if one of the conservative justices who expressed some reservations today surprises us,” he wrote, “that would still likely leave five votes teed up against affirmative action.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="X1G10a">
|
|||
|
|
That makes sense. As Millhiser notes, there are six Republican appointees on the Court today, all by presidents opposed to affirmative action and all reared in a conservative legal movement where opposition to the policy is taken for granted. Even the most comparatively moderate of them, Chief Justice John Roberts, is <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/05-908.ZO.html">famously hostile</a> to considering race in attempts to address past discrimination.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="W6mZ6q">
|
|||
|
|
The reason I’m not more confident is due to a nuance Millhiser noted, which is that Roberts appeared open to racial preferences at military academies, noting the federal government’s argument that the military needs a diverse officer corps to succeed. If such a carve-out is included in the ultimate ruling, my prediction here will be wrong: I’m predicting they’ll strike down affirmative action across the board at public or publicly funded institutions. —<em>DM</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="qpvRTH">
|
|||
|
|
The US will not meet its target for refugee admissions this fiscal year (80 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OmyOV3">
|
|||
|
|
President Biden has set the refugee admissions target at 125,000 for fiscal year 2023 — the same level as in 2022. I think the US will fail to hit that target for the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/6/14/23162982/refugees-united-states-displaced-people-afghanistan-ukraine-biden-trump">same reasons it failed last year</a> (when it admitted fewer than <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-government-and-politics-b19f7754da4cc6d55dfb84b4da7152ea">20,000 refugees</a>). Chief among them: The Trump administration gutted America’s resettlement infrastructure, and it still hasn’t fully recovered. Under Biden, there have been efforts to restaff the government agencies that do resettlement and reopen the offices that had been shuttered, but advocates say the rebuild has been too slow. There just doesn’t seem to be enough political will to make it a priority.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="4BFVib">
|
|||
|
|
You might be wondering: What about all the Afghans, Ukrainians, and Venezuelans that the US has welcomed? Well, the thing is, those who came to the US via the legal process known as humanitarian parole only get stays of two years. They don’t count toward the number of refugees resettled as refugees are given a path to permanent residency. I hope the US will grant full refugee status to the full 125,000 it’s targeting for 2023, but sadly, I doubt that will happen. —<em>Sigal Samuel</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="fjmlBP">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>The US will slip into recession during 2023 (70 percent)</strong>
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TDtETo">
|
|||
|
|
“The state of the economy is weird,” as New York’s Eric Levitz <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/12/is-the-u-s-going-to-have-a-recession-and-how-bad.html">put it in a recent piece</a>. The US <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/02/jobs-report-november-2022.html">keeps gaining jobs</a>, and <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate">unemployment remains near historic lows</a>. Inflation is <a href="https://fortune.com/2022/11/10/inflation-peak-october-cpi-justin-wolfers/">declining</a>, as are <a href="https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/are-gas-prices-going-down#:~:text=When%20you%20look%20further%20back,year%20cost%20decrease%20of%202%25.">gas prices</a>. Yet there is striking uniformity among <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-now-expect-a-recession-job-losses-by-next-year-11665859869">economists</a> and <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221130006227/en/Most-U.S.-Business-Executives-Say-Economy-is-Already-in-Recession-or-Will-Be-Before-2023-AICPA-CIMA-Survey-Finds">business executives</a> that a recession is incoming.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="QdYJ9p">
|
|||
|
|
What gives? Not the Federal Reserve, which has shown no sign that it is ready to significantly moderate interest rate increases, as it seeks to curb spending and investment and tame inflation. Pulling that off without thrusting the US into a recession would require orchestrating the kind of soft landing for the economy that the Fed hasn’t pulled off since 1994, as my Vox colleague Madeleine Ngo <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/12/15/23508155/federal-reserve-inflation-recession-soft-landing">wrote recently</a>. Every part of the economy that is vulnerable to high interest rates — <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/18/home-sales-fell-for-ninth-straight-month-in-october.html">home purchases</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-manufacturing-output-dragged-down-by-motor-vehicle-weakness-2022-12-15/">manufacturing output</a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-retail-sales-november-2022-11671059629">retail sales</a> — is already slumping.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="r80f0q">
|
|||
|
|
Put the current data and the historical analogies together and it’s hard to believe that the US won’t avoid at least a mild recession next year, especially since economic decision-makers are all basically acting as though one is imminent. As John Maynard Keynes <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/how-animal-spirits-destabilize-economies">put it</a>, many of our economic decisions — from whether to buy a house to whether to close a factory — come down less to hard data than “animal spirits.” And the spirits are flagging. —<em>BW</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="UMn9mK">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>Inflation in the US will exceed 3 percent (60 percent)</strong>
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OGzDYX">
|
|||
|
|
This past year, I <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022">predicted that inflation would stay below 3 percent</a> because that’s what the Federal Reserve and private forecasters predicted. That was <a href="https://www.vox.com/22996474/inflation-federal-reserve-nairu-ngdp-powell">extremely wrong</a>: The surge in household cash resources from various stimulus measures, combined with shocks like the semiconductor shortage and the disruptions of the Ukraine-Russia war, meant that prices by the <a href="https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/518">Fed’s preferred metric</a> were <a href="https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&categories=survey#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDMsM10sImRhdGEiOltbImNhdGVnb3JpZXMiLCJTdXJ2ZXkiXSxbIk5JUEFfVGFibGVfTGlzdCIsIjY0Il0sWyJGaXJzdF9ZZWFyIiwiMjAyMSJdLFsiTGFzdF9ZZWFyIiwiMjAyMiJdLFsiU2NhbGUiLCIwIl0sWyJTZXJpZXMiLCJRIl1dfQ==">4.9 percent higher</a> in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the third quarter of 2021.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JSK9f0">
|
|||
|
|
So, how does one go about trying to predict 2023 inflation when major forecasters all got 2022 wrong? For one thing, I’m going to be less confident. I was 80 percent certain last year; I am much less so this year.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="k6H8uR">
|
|||
|
|
As of <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20221214.pdf">December 14</a>, the Fed is projecting that inflation will fall between 3 and 3.8 percent in 2023, and the <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q4-2022">Survey of Professional Forecasters</a> suggests inflation will start at 3.8 percent in the first quarter and fall to 2.7 percent by the end of the year. So an undershoot below 3 percent is certainly possible, especially if the Fed continues to tighten and especially if the economy dips into a recession (see above).
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MYEjac">
|
|||
|
|
But wage growth remains quite strong as of this writing, in a range where even <a href="https://www.employamerica.org/blog/framework-update-labor-income-growth-remains-strong-but-is-decelerating/">the doves at Employ America think some tightening is required</a>. That’s why I think a rate above 3 percent is more likely than not. —<em>DM</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="kJr3k2">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>There will be no Supreme Court vacancies in 2023 (90 percent) </strong>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Cu7kpD">
|
|||
|
|
Last year, Vox’s Dylan Matthews correctly predicted that Stephen Breyer would retire from the Supreme Court. Now, the whole court is relatively young, with four justices in their 50s and none in their 80s (the eldest justice, Clarence Thomas, is a spry 74 years old).
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="United States Supreme Court Associate Justice Clarence Thomas poses for an official portrait at the East Conference Room of the Supreme Court building on October 7, 2022 in Washington, DC" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Tlie-s195k1GLF2tVUs_sb7pLyY=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24323531/GettyImages_1431398148.jpg"/> <cite>Alex Wong/Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
United States Supreme Court Associate Justice Clarence Thomas poses for an official portrait at the East Conference Room of the Supreme Court building on October 7, 2022, in Washington, DC.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1h8ZIi">
|
|||
|
|
Could<strong> </strong>Justice Sonia Sotomayor have retirement on her mind since there’s a <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-senate-chances-2024-and-beyond/">high likelihood</a> Republicans will gain control of the Senate in 2024? Hard to know for sure, but a 2023 retirement would certainly<strong> </strong>be premature — if she goes that route, she could wait until the summer of 2024. Aside from retirement, there’s death. Using the <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html">Social Security Administration’s actuarial tables</a>, the cumulative odds of any justice dying in 2023 (based on age alone) is a little over 11 percent, with Thomas the highest (3.1<strong> </strong>percent) and Barrett the lowest (0.3<strong> </strong>percent). But the justices aren’t your average Americans — their <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/03/upshot/education-impact-health-longevity.html">high education status</a> and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3139960/">wealth</a> reduce their chance of early death and increase their likelihood of survival, so I’m predicting just a 10 percent chance of a vacancy.<strong> </strong> —<em>Kenny Torrella </em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="i43bEp">
|
|||
|
|
The world
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="N7qif8">
|
|||
|
|
Vladimir Putin will still be President of Russia (80 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GWG1wG">
|
|||
|
|
This past year has likely been the worst for Putin’s survival chances since he first ascended to the presidency at the end of 1999. He launched a brutal and illegal war that made his nation an international pariah; the resulting sanctions and mass mobilization of young men from that war are <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-russia-ukraine-war-and-its-ramifications-for-russia/">wreaking havoc on an economy</a> that’s also suffering from now-falling oil prices. On top of all that, he’s losing that war to a country with less than a third of Russia’s population. All of these are conditions where <a href="https://www.vox.com/22961563/putin-russia-ukraine-coup-revolution-invasion">coups start to become imaginable</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="BFBXs3">
|
|||
|
|
That said, it’s important to keep “base rates” in mind: How common are coups in dictatorships, generally? A <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kwI7Lvp6x0GcO3erdaCeICrt-7MyfK2a/view">2021 paper</a> from John Chin, David Carter, and Joseph Wright looked through a database of coup attempts and found that in autocratic countries, 6.3 percent of years featured a coup attempt. “Regime change coups,” their term for attempted coups that totally change a country’s governance structure (as opposed to, say, replacing one general with another), are much more common in personalist regimes like Putin’s, with attempts in 7 percent of years. But in general, only 48 percent of coup attempts they studied succeeded.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OKyaPb">
|
|||
|
|
This paper might lead one to think there’s perhaps a 3.5 percent chance of a successful regime-change coup against Putin in a given year (and it’s hard to imagine a coup against him that doesn’t constitute a regime change). Given all the stressors listed above, I think that’s much too low an estimate. That said, the low overall rate of coups makes me think it’s more likely than not that Putin stays in power. —<em>DM</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="kdPxi0">
|
|||
|
|
China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan (90 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="XB61wA">
|
|||
|
|
People I take seriously are genuinely concerned that China is gearing up for an invasion of Taiwan this decade. Ben Rhodes has a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/12/china-takeover-taiwan-xi-tsai-ing-wen/671895/">thorough, thoughtful take in the Atlantic</a>, and Phil Davidson, the retired admiral formerly in charge of US military operations in the region, has <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0850eb67-1700-47c0-9dbf-3395b4e905fd">argued China will be ready for an invasion by 2027</a>. Not controlling Taiwan is clearly a major psychic injury to Communist Party leaders, and taking over a world leader in semiconductor production that’s strategically placed in the South China Sea would have geostrategic benefits, too.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="nW61zP">
|
|||
|
|
But I have a hard time getting over the fact that an invasion would be outrageously costly for China in terms of blood and treasure and international esteem, and that these costs would almost surely outweigh any benefits. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-biden-china-invade-taiwan-g20-clapper-bali-indonesia-2022-11">Mattathias Schwartz at Insider</a> has a useful rundown of the challenges an invasion poses, not least of which is that Taiwan is an island and amphibious invasions are extraordinarily difficult. John Culver, a veteran CIA analyst on China, argues that <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/03/how-we-would-know-when-china-is-preparing-to-invade-taiwan-pub-88053">there would be clear signs</a> before an invasion, like “surging production of ballistic and cruise missiles; anti-air, air-to-air, and large rockets for long-range beach bombardment; and numerous other items, at least a year before D-Day.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="v0VqRW">
|
|||
|
|
While China has <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-61642217">stepped up its probes of Taiwan’s defenses</a>, none of those warning signs are visible yet. We saw preparations for the Russian invasion of Ukraine <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/12/8/22824015/russia-ukraine-troops-tensions-putin-biden-nato">months ahead of time</a>; it wasn’t clear whether Putin was serious or feinting, but he was definitely up to something. The situation with China and Taiwan just isn’t the same, and the debacle that is the Russian invasion of Ukraine probably doesn’t make Xi Jinping more inclined to repeat Putin’s mistake. —<em>DM</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="zYn0SE">
|
|||
|
|
At least one new country will join NATO (90 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="mu7Tc1">
|
|||
|
|
Sweden and Finland <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/5/13/23069341/finland-sweden-nato-membership-russia-ukraine-war">formally applied to join NATO</a> in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion, in a massive reorientation of Nordic defense policy. While Sweden was <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1994-02-12-9402120116-story.html">secretly cooperating with NATO throughout the Cold War</a>, it was publicly non-aligned during those decades and often <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1972/12/27/archives/swedish-comment-brings-us-protest.html">vocally critical of the West</a>. Meanwhile, Finland was so thoroughly under the Soviets’ thumb that the USSR once <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_Frost_Crisis">forced a Finnish prime minister they didn’t like to resign</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="The national flags of (LtoR) Latvia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom (Union Jack) are displayed during the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) leaders summit in Riga on December 19, 2022" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/UI9KKHxAsXD4J70EvWAziHtX6_s=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24323536/GettyImages_1245727290.jpg"/> <cite>Gints Ivuskans/AFP via Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
The national flags of (from left) Latvia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom are displayed during the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) leaders summit in Riga on December 19, 2022.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="Dh7L8y">
|
|||
|
|
Turkey, a member since 1952, has reservations about the Swedes and Finns related to their support for Kurdish causes, which has been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/08/us/politics/nato-expansion-us-turkey.html">delaying their accession</a>. This means that Sweden and Finland joining is not a totally sure thing, but I think it’s pretty close. The consensus among most observers is that Turkey is trying to extract a few concessions from its Western defense partners and understands that the massive benefits the new members bring to the alliance outweigh any downsides. —<em>DM</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="EgoXRE">
|
|||
|
|
Finland will remain the world’s happiest country, while America won’t crack the top dozen (75 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="7t4mCL">
|
|||
|
|
Every year, the World Happiness Report ranks countries in terms of the happiness of their populations. It’s an attempt to pay more attention to indicators of subjective well-being as opposed to raw GDP.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="u24syO">
|
|||
|
|
Finland has been the happiest country for five years running, thanks to its well-run public services, high levels of trust in authority, and low levels of crime and inequality, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/19/finland-named-worlds-happiest-country-for-fifth-year-running#:~:text=%E2%80%9CMany%20things%20are%20undeniably%20good,levels%20of%20crime%20and%20inequality.">among other things</a>. And in 2022, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/19/world-happiness-ranking-2022-where-the-united-states-ranks-now.html">researchers noted</a> that its victory wasn’t even a close call: Its score was “significantly ahead” of every other country.<strong> </strong>So I think it’s likely to hold onto the top spot in 2023. As for America, its ranking did improve recently — from 19th place in 2021 to 16th place in 2022 — but it has never made it into the top dozen spots. —<em>SS</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="aEtNDK">
|
|||
|
|
Science and technology
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="x37piM">
|
|||
|
|
A psychedelic-based mental health treatment will win US regulatory approval (60 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ERdhDL">
|
|||
|
|
Research into the therapeutic potential of psychedelic drugs has been undergoing a renaissance over the past decade, and it’s now bearing fruit. A May 2022 <a href="https://theintercept.com/2022/07/26/mdma-psilocybin-fda-ptsd/">letter</a> from the Health and Human Services Department disclosed that President Biden’s administration anticipates regulators will approve MDMA for PTSD and psilocybin for depression within the next two years.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="a2uJcI">
|
|||
|
|
MDMA will probably come first; some experts <a href="https://www.pharmacytimes.com/view/expert-mdma-is-very-likely-to-be-fda-approved-for-ptsd-by-the-end-of-2023">say</a> that by the end of 2023, it’s very likely to become FDA-approved for PTSD. Meanwhile, psilocybin will probably get approved for depression the next year. But with such a delicate issue as this, it’s always possible that some late-stage questions will emerge around the clinical trials or plans for implementing an approval, and that could bog things down, so I’m only giving this prediction 60 percent odds. —<em>SS</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="n69GeV">
|
|||
|
|
The US will not approve a nasal vaccine for Covid-19 (90 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="0JRTSN">
|
|||
|
|
For a long time, we’ve been hearing about how Covid-19 vaccines delivered through the nose would likely prevent more infections than shots in arms. And China, India, Russia, and Iran have already <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/18/health/covid-nasal-vaccines-warp-speed.html">greenlit vaccines taken through the nose or mouth</a>. Alas, not the US. Nasal vaccines created by American researchers have been tested in animals, but human testing has been held back for a few reasons. A big one is the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/18/health/covid-nasal-vaccines-warp-speed.html">lack of funding</a>: Biden has asked Congress for more money for next-generation vaccines, but Republicans have resisted. Current estimates put nasal vaccines <a href="https://time.com/6226356/nasal-vaccine-covid-19-us-update/">years away for the US</a>. That’s depressing, but the indications suggest it’s accurate. —<em>SS</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="mySHjT">
|
|||
|
|
An AI company will knowingly release a text-to-image or text-to-video model that exhibits bias (90 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GTfC1P">
|
|||
|
|
AI that lets you turn a few words into an image or a video made stunning advances in 2022, from OpenAI’s DALL-E 2 and Stability AI’s Stable Diffusion to Meta’s Make-A-Video and Google’s Imagen Video. They were hailed for the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23023538/ai-dalle-2-openai-bias-gpt-3-incentives">delightful art</a> they can make and criticized for exhibiting racial and gender bias.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OalfBk">
|
|||
|
|
They won’t be the last. I feel confident that this pattern will repeat itself in 2023, simply because there’s so much to incentivize more of the same and so little to disincentivize it. As the team at Anthropic, an AI safety and research company, put it in a <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2202.07785.pdf">paper</a>, “The economic incentives to build such models, and the prestige incentives to announce them, are quite strong.” And there’s a lack of regulation compelling AI companies to adopt better practices.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="MfDbmq">
|
|||
|
|
In assessing whether this prediction comes true, I will judge an AI company to have “knowingly” released a biased model if the company acknowledges in a model card or similar that the product exhibits bias, or if the company builds the model using a dataset known to be rife with bias. And I’ll judge whether the product “exhibits bias” based on the assessments of experts or journalists who gain access to it. —<em>SS </em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="a2Dxg9">
|
|||
|
|
OpenAI will release GPT-4 (60 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="t1dY2Y">
|
|||
|
|
In its brief history, the research group OpenAI has released four large language models capable of producing intelligible text under the name “GPT,” or Generative Pre-trained Transformer. The <a href="https://openai.com/blog/language-unsupervised/">first iteration</a> came out in summer 2018. Then in early 2019, they <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/2/14/18222270/artificial-intelligence-open-ai-natural-language-processing">unveiled GPT-2</a>; in summer 2020 came <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21355768/gpt-3-ai-openai-turing-test-language">GPT-3</a>, and as part of the very high-profile <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2022/12/7/23498694/ai-artificial-intelligence-chat-gpt-openai">ChatGPT product</a> they revealed in late November 2022, they announced they had created <a href="https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt/">GPT-3.5</a>. The question then naturally arises: When is GPT-4 coming?
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="OpenAI logo seen on screen with ChatBot logo displayed on mobile seen in this illustration in Brussels, Belgium, on December 12, 2022" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/con_qSGcISqkLdc4io4YBpMRapc=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24323539/GettyImages_1245565631.jpg"/> <cite>Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto via Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
OpenAI logo seen on screen with ChatBot logo displayed on mobile seen in this illustration in Brussels, Belgium, on December 12, 2022.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RP2RhO">
|
|||
|
|
Impressionistically, I find GPT-3.5 outputs much more convincing than GPT-3 ones, but OpenAI did not judge the advance significant enough for the name GPT-4. The release schedule also seems to be slowing down somewhat. But the rumor mill points in the opposite direction, with the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/05/technology/chatgpt-ai-twitter.html">New York Times’s Kevin Roose</a> reporting murmurs that GPT-4 will come out in 2023, and <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/01/while-anticipation-builds-for-gpt-4-openai-quietly-releases-gpt-3-5/">TechCrunch’s Kyle Wiggers</a> more evasively suggesting “perhaps as soon as 2023.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JXnnE8">
|
|||
|
|
I’m inclined to give the rumor mill some weight, which is why I think GPT-4 in 2023 is more likely than not, but I’m not confident at all. —<em>DM</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="MInd8Z">
|
|||
|
|
SpaceX’s Starship will reach orbit (70 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="5lF9Rk">
|
|||
|
|
Starship, the new reusable spacecraft being developed by SpaceX, has been <a href="https://www.flightglobal.com/space/spacex-aims-big-with-massive-new-rocket/107434.article">in the works for roughly a decade now</a>. While the company has signaled that the next step is an uncrewed test flight reaching Earth orbit, that project has recently seen some delays. On November 1, <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-december">industry news sites</a> were reporting that the craft’s first orbital launch would come in December, but <a href="https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/rocket-report-first-uk-launch-slips-to-2023-ukrainian-rocket-startup-perseveres/">by December</a> it was clear the launch wouldn’t come until 2023 at the earliest.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="16evgx">
|
|||
|
|
But smart observers are still optimistic. “Based on a couple of conversations, I think SpaceX has a reasonable chance of making Starship’s orbital launch during the first quarter of 2023,” <a href="https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/rocket-report-first-uk-launch-slips-to-2023-ukrainian-rocket-startup-perseveres/">Ars Technica’s Eric Berger</a> wrote on December 9. More to the point, delays, which are pretty common with SpaceX and spaceflight generally, sometimes are a sign of caution, which means the actual launch attempt has better odds.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="JQrQta">
|
|||
|
|
Starship is a totally new system, but SpaceX has an enviable track record with its other rockets: a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches">99 percent success rate</a> on nearly 200 launches.<strong> </strong>Most of the drama with Falcon launches these days has to do with whether SpaceX also successfully lands the reusable first-stage booster without damage. The odds of a failure are higher in an early-stage program like Starship — and crewed launches like the shuttle operate under even more stringent safety standards — but SpaceX’s track record gives me hope.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="05dohB">
|
|||
|
|
I put the odds that SpaceX will attempt a launch in 2023 at around 90 percent. If it attempts a launch, I put odds of success at some point in 2023 (if not necessarily in the first attempt) around 80 percent. That’s lower than its 99 percent success rate for the Falcon rockets, but fair given the newness and relative complexity of the system. 90 percent times 80 percent gets us around 70 percent odds that a launch succeeds in 2023. —<em>DM</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="Bv94TL">
|
|||
|
|
Animals
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="NKZydv">
|
|||
|
|
At least three lab-grown meat companies will begin selling their products in the US (50 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="ZiR41s">
|
|||
|
|
In November, the nascent lab-grown or “cultivated” meat field reached a major milestone: The US Food and Drug Administration gave Upside Foods, an early player in the sector, the green light to <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/11/17/23462902/lab-grown-meat-upside-fda-approval-usda-cultivated-meat-animal-welfare">sell its cultivated chicken</a>. But you won’t find it for sale just yet — the startup still needs USDA approval, which I predict it’ll get by the end of 2023.<strong> </strong>Not only that: I predict similar approval for<strong> </strong>two other startups in the coming year.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="VoIPma">
|
|||
|
|
If these moves happen,<strong> </strong>cell-cultured meat won’t be available for mass consumption immediately. Upside has <a href="https://upsidefoods.com/upside-foods-chef-crenn/">plans</a> to first partner with one Michelin-starred restaurant in San Francisco, and cultivated seafood startups <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23507372/lab-grown-seafood-fish-bluenalu-wildtype-cultivated-cultured-meat">Wildtype and BlueNalu</a> will first work with high-end sushi restaurants. The first movers will have to be high-end — cultivated meat is still costly to produce, especially compared to $1.50-per-pound factory-farmed chicken.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OZOU2R">
|
|||
|
|
Availability at just a few elite restaurants is far from the industry’s real ambition: stealing a sizable share of the conventional meat market. But it’s significant that the startups in a sector that began less than a decade ago are now slowly migrating from the R&D lab to the manufacturing plant. It’ll be the first real test for the <a href="https://gfi.org/press/record-5-billion-invested-in-alt-proteins-in-2021/">$2 billion gamble</a> on lab-made meat. —<em>KT</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="BGghQ0">
|
|||
|
|
The Supreme Court will rule in favor of the pork industry in <em>National Pork Producers Council v. Ross</em> (70 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="rShC6E">
|
|||
|
|
In 2018, over 62 percent of California voters supported a ballot initiative called Proposition 12 to ensure that pork, eggs, and veal sold in the state come from uncaged animals, whether those animals were raised in California or not. The law inspired fierce backlash in the form of three lawsuits from meat trade groups, and the Supreme Court took up one of them intended to <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/10/9/23393017/supreme-court-pork-pigs-prop-12-california-animal-welfare">invalidate the part of the law that covers pork</a>. (Disclosure: From 2012 to 2017, I worked at the Humane Society of the United States, which led efforts to pass Proposition 12.)
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="RRLqCE">
|
|||
|
|
The industry’s core argument is that Prop 12 violates the “dormant commerce clause,” a legal doctrine meant to prevent protectionism, or states giving their own businesses preferential treatment over businesses in other states.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="Close-up of pig on a farm in an agricultural area of Gilroy, California, May 31, 2020" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cpWggFBBTI3lFfTjZ4CTARlq68c=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24323542/GettyImages_1248317253.jpg"/> <cite>Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Close-up of pig on a farm in an agricultural area of Gilroy, California, May 31, 2020.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="PmJogD">
|
|||
|
|
I think that argument is <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/10/9/23393017/supreme-court-pork-pigs-prop-12-california-animal-welfare">spurious</a> — many producers have already begun to transition their operations to comply with Prop 12. But I’m not on the Supreme Court. My pessimistic instinct is to say that a majority of the justices will side with business interests, in keeping with the court’s <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2018/08/empirical-scotus-the-big-business-court/">increasingly business-friendly</a> trends.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="AcxhzH">
|
|||
|
|
However, it’s not an open-and-shut case. There could be some swing votes, as Justices Clarence<strong> </strong>Thomas and Neil<strong> </strong>Gorsuch don’t like the dormant commerce clause, and Justice Samuel Alito dissented when the Court struck down a federal animal cruelty law. Hence, I’m pegging my confidence in this prediction at 70 percent. —<em>KT</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="QPi5Xm">
|
|||
|
|
Over 50 million birds will be culled due to US bird flu outbreaks (40 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="a0gjG5">
|
|||
|
|
In 2015, a catastrophic avian influenza outbreak in the US wiped out 50 million chickens and turkeys raised for food. Most of them didn’t die from the disease but instead were culled, or proactively killed (in <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23053296/bird-flu-chickens-turkeys-cull-depopulation-ventilation-shutdown">disturbing ways</a>) to prevent further spread. It seemed like a <a href="https://www.ig.com/en/news-and-trade-ideas/black-swan-theory-explained--what-is-a-black-swan-event--200703">black swan event</a>, but as of mid-December, over 53 million birds have been culled in <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/11/22/23472207/bird-flu-vaccine-turkey-prices-chickens-hens-cull-depopulation">this year’s outbreak</a>. Europe set its own bird flu <a href="https://www.poultryworld.net/health-nutrition/health/europe-the-largest-epidemic-of-bird-flu/">outbreak record</a> this year, too.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="GyyOZP">
|
|||
|
|
<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/02/1140076426/what-we-know-about-the-deadliest-u-s-bird-flu-outbreak-in-history">Some</a> <a href="https://hakaimagazine.com/news/the-rampaging-avian-influenza-is-entering-unknown-territory/">experts</a> <a href="https://phys.org/news/2022-12-million-birds-affected-outbreak-avian.html">say</a> the highly pathogenic influenza may be here to stay, and there’s good reason to worry they’re right. Usually, avian flu viruses subside during the summer months, but this summer they continued to circulate. <a href="https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/j.efsa.2022.7415">European officials</a> say the disease may now be endemic among the continent’s wild bird populations, who spread it to farmed birds as they migrate. And the virus is spreading faster, and to more species — including <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03322-2">more mammals</a> — than past outbreaks.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="gaLWDx">
|
|||
|
|
Given the alarm among those who closely track bird flu, increasing <a href="https://bvajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/vetr.2399">calls for vaccination</a> against bird flu (a <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/11/22/23472207/bird-flu-vaccine-turkey-prices-chickens-hens-cull-depopulation">long-taboo topic</a> among governments and poultry producers), and the fact that this year’s virus hit 47 US states (compared to 21 states during the 2015 outbreak), I think the chance of another disastrous bird flu outbreak is fairly high. —<em>KT </em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="uuBW6p">
|
|||
|
|
Beyond Meat’s stock price will break $30 at the end of the year (30 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1B23uy">
|
|||
|
|
It’s been a hell of a few years for Beyond Meat. Six years ago, its flagship Beyond Burger made plant-based meat cool, and its stock market debut in 2019 was the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-02/beyond-meat-makes-history-with-biggest-ipo-pop-since-08-crisis">strongest-performing IPO</a> since 2008.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="uModRh">
|
|||
|
|
As of mid-December, its stock price is half of its $25 IPO, and just 6 percent of its $235 high in July 2019. Beyond Meat’s sales have fallen sharply — a <a href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/11/09/beyond-meat-inc-bynd-q3-2022-earnings-call-transcr/">13 percent decline</a> in pounds of plant-based meat sold in this year’s third quarter compared to last year’s. And it has <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/14/where-will-beyond-meat-stock-be-in-1-year/">accrued a mountain of debt</a>, due in part to its big plant-based <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/20/could-beyond-meat-go-bankrupt/">jerky launch</a>, which underperformed expectations. It has also launched a range of other products in the last year, including <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/10/24/23416694/beyond-meat-steak-tips-vegan-plant-based">steak tips</a>, new kinds of chicken, and at least <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/07/business/beyond-meat-sales/index.html">nine distinct products</a> for restaurant partnerships.
|
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</p>
|
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|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="TYXkaz">
|
|||
|
|
Beyond Meat isn’t alone in its struggles; the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/10/24/23416694/beyond-meat-steak-tips-vegan-plant-based">whole plant-based meat sector is down</a>. To course-correct, the company recently laid off 19 percent of its staff and <a href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/11/09/beyond-meat-inc-bynd-q3-2022-earnings-call-transcr/">told investors</a> it plans to get back to basics, with a focus on growing its core offerings: sausages, burgers, and beef. It may also benefit from a <a href="https://plantbasednews.org/news/economics/jbs-ditches-plant-based-meat/">recent</a> <a href="https://www.fooddive.com/news/maple-leaf-cuts-greenleaf-division-plant-based/629146/">contraction</a> in competition<strong> </strong>and slowing inflation.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="1hXRfq">
|
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|
|
That could all help its stock price rise, but financial analysts are skeptical a short-term turnaround is possible. The mean price analysts predict for the end of 2023 ranges from <a href="https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/bynd/forecast">$10</a> to <a href="https://www.wallstreetzen.com/stocks/us/nasdaq/bynd/stock-forecast">$16</a>, with the highest at <a href="https://www.wallstreetzen.com/stocks/us/nasdaq/bynd/stock-forecast">$32</a>. —<em>KT</em>
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|
|
</p>
|
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<h4 id="dnvnq5">
|
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|
|
Antibiotics sales for farmed animals will increase in 2022 (65 percent)
|
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</h4>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="sogZx5">
|
|||
|
|
Nearly <a href="https://publicinterestnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/SuperbugsinStock_10-13_sm.pdf">two-thirds</a> of medically important antibiotics in the US are fed to farmed animals, which worries public health experts as some bacteria are evolving to become resistant to the lifesaving drugs, ushering in a <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/11/14/20963824/drug-resistance-antibiotics-cdc-report">post-antibiotic area</a>.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="EtN2z9">
|
|||
|
|
The FDA and the companies that produce and sell meat are under pressure to tackle the problem. But the FDA <a href="https://civileats.com/2022/12/13/the-field-report-fda-data-shows-a-worrisome-increase-in-antibiotic-use-in-animal-agriculture/">seems reluctant</a> to wade into the issue, and advocacy groups say <a href="https://pirg.org/edfund/resources/superbugs-in-stock/">grocers</a> and <a href="https://pirg.org/edfund/resources/chain-reaction-vi-3/">restaurant chains</a> that pledged to reduce antibiotic use in their supply chains aren’t following through. Given governmental apathy and corporate laggards, and the fact that beef production — which uses far more antibiotics than pork and poultry — is projected to have grown <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/105496/ldp-m-342.pdf?v=3823.6">2 percent in 2022</a> (compared to 2021), I think antibiotic use will have slightly increased in 2022. —<em>KT</em>
|
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|
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</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h3 id="lwwlBD">
|
|||
|
|
Culture and sport
|
|||
|
|
</h3>
|
|||
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|
<h4 id="V9OnXx">
|
|||
|
|
<em>Top Gun: Maverick </em>will not win Best Picture (75 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="9zsROk">
|
|||
|
|
After Dylan Matthews <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022">biffed it last year</a> when he predicted that the 2022 Academy Award for Best Picture would go to <em>Belfast</em>, a movie that I’m still not 100 percent sure was real, I’m hesitant to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/video/carpetbagger">wade into Carpetbagger territory</a>. This is compounded by the fact that of the <a href="https://variety.com/feature/2023-oscars-best-picture-predictions-1235306911/">10 films Variety projects</a> have the best chance at taking home the gold statuette, I’ve seen precisely two: the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-front-row/everything-everywhere-all-at-once-reviewed-theres-no-there-there">honestly overrated</a> <em>Everything Everywhere All at Once</em> and the 131 minutes of “America! Fuck yeah!” that is <em>Top Gun: Maverick</em>. You have that right: I am the reason that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/business/media/oscars-films-box-office.html">critically acclaimed films are bombing at the box office</a>.
|
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|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="OwLHgz">
|
|||
|
|
But even though I’m no cineaste, I’ve watched enough Oscar telecasts to have a pretty good idea of what the Academy is looking for. And it is not, apparently, movies that audiences go to see. While nearly every Best Picture winner between 1980 and 2003 was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/03/movies/oscars-best-picture-box-office.html">among the 20 top-grossing movies of the yea</a>r, only three winners since have cracked that list.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="jhej3K">
|
|||
|
|
<em>Top Gun: Maverick </em>isn’t just the highest-grossing film of the year, it has <a href="https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2022/">nearly doubled the performance of its closest competitor, <em>Black Panther: Wakanda Forever</em></a>. Add that to its summer release — recently, the Academy has <a href="https://www.theringer.com/oscars/2018/2/28/17060396/best-oscar-movie-release-date">mostly preferred films released near the end of the year</a> — and the odds are bad for the fighter plane flick. If I had to choose a winner, it would be <em>Tár</em>, because why wouldn’t an industry facing an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/07/business/dealbook/movies-hollywood-streaming-services.html">existential audience crisis</a> choose a critically acclaimed film <a href="https://www.thewrap.com/tar-till-tepid-indie-box-office/">that no one has seen</a>? But I do expect <em>Top Gun: Maverick </em>to take home the award for Best Visual Effects, both for the amazing, real-life dogfighting sequences and for whatever it is that keeps 60-year-old Tom Cruise looking ageless. —<em>BW</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<h4 id="d60gr3">
|
|||
|
|
The Philadelphia Eagles will win the 2023 Super Bowl (25 percent)
|
|||
|
|
</h4>
|
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|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="V4eCfA">
|
|||
|
|
Let’s get this out of the way: I am part of that shadowy cabal of journalists, as described in a <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/12/9/23501320/eagles-washington-dc-political-media">recent Ringer story</a>, who are inexplicably devoted to the Philadelphia Eagles football team. And for most of my life, this has been a <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/85694-the-10-worst-moments-in-philadelphia-eagles-history-since-1968">one-way relationship filled with disappointment and heartache</a>. Sure, we’ll always have Nick Foles and the “Philly Special” at Super Bowl 52 (though my favorite memory from that game isn’t Foles catching a pass; it’s then-Patriots quarterback Tom Brady <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16x035QVrEI&themeRefresh=1">dropping one</a>). But this is a franchise <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_all-time_NFL_win%E2%80%93loss_records">with an all-time loss record of .490</a> as of the end of 2021, one tick lower than the Cleveland Browns. The Browns!
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<figure class="e-image">
|
|||
|
|
<img alt="Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles talks with Quez Watkins #16 and DeVonta Smith #6 against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on December 18, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/10dDDnBny62jSHxC-qhTyKSEW4M=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24323546/GettyImages_1450463531.jpg"/> <cite>Michael Reaves/Getty Images</cite>
|
|||
|
|
<figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles talks with Quez Watkins #16 and DeVonta Smith #6 against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on December 18, 2022, in Chicago, Illinois.
|
|||
|
|
</figcaption>
|
|||
|
|
</figure>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom" id="HzcFzp">
|
|||
|
|
This year has been different, though. With a 13-2 record as of the last week of December, my Eagles sit at the top of the NFL. We have an exciting young quarterback in Jalen Hurts, a trio of elite wide receivers who all for some reason have <a href="https://www.sportscasting.com/why-philadelphia-eagles-wide-receivers-batman-cape-touchdown/">Batman-related nicknames</a>, and a left offensive tackle <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/eagles-rookie-jordan-mailata-wears-real-life-clown-shoes">approximately the size</a> of two Jason Momoas. At of December 27, the sportsbooks at Fanduel <a href="https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/nfl?tab=super-bowl">put the odds</a> of an Eagles win in Super Bowl LVII at 16.9 percent. <a href="https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html"></a>That’s just behind the Kansas City Chiefs at about 18.2 percent and the Buffalo Bills at 22.2 percent,<strong> </strong>but I’m going to give the Eagles a boost on the basis of my “nothing good happens to Buffalo” theory, which historically <a href="https://www.thesportster.com/football/top-15-worst-moments-in-buffalo-bills-history/">has been very accurate</a>, and because Philadelphia fans are familiar with Chiefs coach Andy Reid’s <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/super-bowl-55-andy-reid-awful-clock-decision-kills-chiefs-triggers-eagles-fans">inability to read a game clock</a>. And should the Eagles fail, I can offer a prediction with 100 percent certainty: <a href="https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/philadelphia-fans-boo-undefeated-eagles-trailing-commanders-halftime-video-01ghwk3p8fj1">We will boo them</a>. —<em>BW</em>
|
|||
|
|
</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-sports">From The Hindu: Sports</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>General Atlantic claims Rani Lakshmibai Plate</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Inishmore, Baby Bazooka and Pride’s Angel catch the eye</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Fire Power, King Louis, Artemis Ignacia and True Faith shine</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Watch | What is Kolkata’s special bond with Pele?</strong> - A video on Kolkata mourning the death of football legend Pele</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Berrettini beats Ruud to advance Italy at United Cup</strong> - Berrettini’s win gave Italy and unassailable 3-0 lead over Norway on Tuesday and ensured it will finish atop Group E at the mixed teams tournament and will face either Poland or Switzerland on Wednesday</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-the-hindu-national-news">From The Hindu: National News</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Drive to inoculate cattle against foot and mouth disease from tomorrow</strong> -</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Chandrababu Naidu back-stabbed NTR to build his political career, alleges Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy</strong> - Chandrababu Naidu’s publicity blitzkrieg is claiming lives of innocent people, alleges the Chief Minister</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Jaishankar defends India's move to import Russian oil; says Europe imported 6 times more than India since Feb 2022</strong> - India's appetite for Russian oil has swelled ever since it started trading on discount as the West shunned it to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Wish list 2023: This year, close to 40 km metro lines likely to opened for Bengalureans</strong> - As per the plans, by mid-2023, two lines - the extended Purple Line from Baiyappanahalli to Whitfield (15 km) and the new Yellow Line from R.V. Road to Bommasandra (19 km) - will be opened to the public in Bengaluru</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Dangri attack | Tearful adieu to six killed in twin terror incidents in J&’s Rajouri</strong> - Amid slogans by people who took out processions, the bodies of the six victims of the terror attacks at Dangri village, were brought to the cremation ground for last rites.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-bbc-europe">From BBC: Europe</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Russia plans to ‘exhaust’ Ukraine with prolonged attacks - Zelensky</strong> - Ukraine’s president says Moscow aims to exhaust his country with a prolonged wave of drone strikes.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Snow shortage threatens Alps with wet winter season</strong> - World Cup skiers will race on artificial snow this Saturday as the Alps see record high temperatures.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Brexit: Mistakes were made on all sides, says Leo Varadkar</strong> - The Irish prime minister says perhaps the Northern Ireland protocol is a “little bit too strict”.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>César film awards ban nominees investigated for sexual violence</strong> - The César Awards brings in the rule after fears there could be protests at the event next month.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Russia’s war drains Ukraine’s rich list of power</strong> - Ukraine’s billionaire oligarchs have lost money and influence because of the war.</p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-ars-technica">From Ars Technica</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Maybe Edward the Black Prince didn’t die from chronic dysentery after all</strong> - Edward III’s heir apparent more likely succumbed to malaria, inflammatory bowel disease - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1907112">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>What are companies doing with D-Wave’s quantum hardware?</strong> - D-Wave’s computers are especially good at solving optimization problems. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1895515">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Mastodon—and the pros and cons of moving beyond Big Tech gatekeepers</strong> - Standards-based interoperability makes a comeback, sort of. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1906181">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Up close and personal: Dolphin POV caught on camera while hunting for tasty fish</strong> - Accompanying audio recorded dolphins squealing in victory when they captured prey. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1907072">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Ancient Chinese text reveals earliest-known record of a candidate aurora</strong> - Passage in <em>Bamboo Annals</em> describes a “five-colored light” in 10th century BCE. - <a href="https://arstechnica.com/?p=1848676">link</a></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 data-aos="fade-right" id="from-jokes-subreddit">From Jokes Subreddit</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<ul>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>Great legs</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
The wife and I were in town shopping and as we came out of a store, three attractive young women aged between 18 and 20 walked by wearing tiny cropped tops and short short skirts. One of them, a tall blonde, had really fantastic long toned and tanned legs.I gently nudged my wife and said, “I bet you wish you still had legs like that!”.She got really upset with me… In fact I could still hear her sobbing as I wheeled her up the ramp into the next store.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/MrJamieC1975"> /u/MrJamieC1975 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/101meeu/great_legs/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/101meeu/great_legs/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>What is the difference between science and religion?</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Science builds planes and skyscrapers, religion brings them together.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/entity_4O4"> /u/entity_4O4 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/1020x2r/what_is_the_difference_between_science_and/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/1020x2r/what_is_the_difference_between_science_and/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>An American, an Englishman and a Scotsman are eating breakfast with their wives</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
The American says to his wife: “Please pass me the honey, honey”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
Then the Englishman requests: “Please pass me the sugar, sugar,” to his wife.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
The Scotsman thinks for a second, then bickers “Pass me the milk, ya cow!”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/TheBrohannes"> /u/TheBrohannes </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/101ikpo/an_american_an_englishman_and_a_scotsman_are/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/101ikpo/an_american_an_englishman_and_a_scotsman_are/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
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<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>tiger wouldn’t do that</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
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<div class="md">
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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A couple was on their honeymoon, lying in bed and just about ready to consummate their marriage when the new bride says to the husband: "I have a confession
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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to make - I’m not a virgin."
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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The husband replies, “That’s no big thing in this day and age.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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The wife continues, “Yea… I’ve been with one guy.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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“Oh yeah? Who was the guy?”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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“Tiger Woods.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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“Tiger Woods the golfer?”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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“Yeah.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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“Well, he’s rich, famous and handsome. I can see why you went to bed with him.”
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
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The husband and wife then make passionate love.
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</p>
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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When they are done, the husband gets up and walks to the telephone.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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“What are you doing?” asks the wife.
|
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</p>
|
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<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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The husband says, “I’m hungry, I was going to call room service and get something to eat.”
|
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|
</p>
|
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|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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|
|
“Tiger wouldn’t do that.”
|
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|
|
</p>
|
|||
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|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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|
|
“Oh yeah? What would Tiger do?”
|
|||
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|
</p>
|
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|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
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|
“He’d come back to bed and do it a second time.”
|
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|
|
</p>
|
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|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
The husband puts down the phone and goes back to bed to make love a second time.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
When they finish, he gets up and goes over to the phone. “Now what are you doing?” she asks.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
The husband says, “I’m still hungry so I was going to call room service to get something to eat.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
“Tiger wouldn’t do that.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
“Oh yeah? What would Tiger do?”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
“He’d come back to bed and do it again.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
The guy slams down the phone goes back to bed and makes love one more time.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
When they finish, he’s tired and beat. He drags himself over to the phone and starts to dial.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
The wife asks, “Are you calling room service?”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
“No! I’m calling Tiger Woods, to find out what the par is for this darn hole.”
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Formal-Ad8037"> /u/Formal-Ad8037 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/101bxx1/tiger_wouldnt_do_that/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/101bxx1/tiger_wouldnt_do_that/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
<li><p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"><strong>What do libertarians and house cats have in common?</strong> - <!-- SC_OFF --></p>
|
|||
|
|
<div class="md">
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom">
|
|||
|
|
They both act like they are independent and self sufficient but in reality are utterly dependent on a system they can neither appreciate nor understand.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<!-- SC_ON -->
|
|||
|
|
<p data-aos="fade-left" data-aos-anchor-placement="bottom-bottom"> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/TheOnesWhoWander"> /u/TheOnesWhoWander </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/101jdt6/what_do_libertarians_and_house_cats_have_in_common/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Jokes/comments/101jdt6/what_do_libertarians_and_house_cats_have_in_common/">[comments]</a></span></p></li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
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|
|
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